# Episode 698: "Everyone Loses With Non-Refundable"

**Source:** Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)  
**Type:** podcast_episode  
**Published:** 2022-07-20  
**Duration:** 25m 17s  
**Beat:** Pinball

**URL:** https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-698-with-69337205

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## Analysis

Chris Kaneda critiques the pinball industry's practice of non-refundable deposits and early game announcements, arguing the system harms all stakeholders—consumers, manufacturers, and distributors. He traces the origin of non-refundable deposits to Spooky Pinball's Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle, examines why companies like Multimorphic and Jersey Jack Pinball take money months before production, and urges the community to stop participating in FOMO-driven pre-orders and wait for secondary market availability.

### Key Claims

- [MEDIUM] Spooky Pinball initiated non-refundable deposits with Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle (or possibly Rob Zombie) to protect against customization cancellations — _Chris Kaneda explaining the historical origin, noting some uncertainty between Alice Cooper's and Rob Zombie_
- [HIGH] Multimorphic revealed Weird Al approximately 5 months before having adequate workforce to manufacture it — _Chris Kaneda citing Jerry Stellenberg's admission about hiring difficulties and timeline from TPF reveal_
- [MEDIUM] Jersey Jack Pinball takes distributor deposits ($2,500 per CE) on day one and immediately allocates them, making refunds practically impossible — _Chris Kaneda's hypothetical explanation of Toy Story CE deposit flow with Automated as example_
- [MEDIUM] Scalping profits in pinball are essentially gone except for Keith Elwin designs and possibly James Bond — _Chris Kaneda's prediction about future secondary market dynamics_
- [MEDIUM] Stern Pinball will tease Venom at Comic-Con but not fully reveal it (following standard Stern protocol) — _Chris Kaneda discussing Stern's typical reveal strategy and blurred Mandalorian teaser image_
- [MEDIUM] Pinball machine pricing has approximately doubled over the past 6-7 years compared to historical prices — _Chris Kaneda contrasting current Pro/LE/Premium pricing against prices from ~2016-2017_
- [HIGH] Non-refundable deposit contracts contain no safeguards for shipping delays or quality issues — _Chris Kaneda examining standard contract language in modern pinball deposit agreements_
- [MEDIUM] Spooky Pinball announced new games without showing gameplay and required non-refundable deposits pre-reveal — _Chris Kaneda citing Spooky's marketing strategy as evidence of intentional FOMO engineering_
- [MEDIUM] Haggis Pinball's Damien initially promised July production start but later delayed significantly — _Chris Kaneda noting he is pleased games are shipping now but characterizing initial timeline as a lie_
- [HIGH] Every subsequent pinball machine at current price points must be extraordinary to justify the investment — _Chris Kaneda's conclusion about market sustainability and consumer expectations_

### Notable Quotes

> "Your money is now going to try to find like resources to actually build your game. Your money is going to go to rent. Your money is going to go to vendors. Your money is going to go to a human resource person trying to find temp workers."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~16:30
> _Crystallizes the core ethical concern: deposits become operational funding for understaffed manufacturers rather than purchase commitments_

> "I think it was just unprofessional and on some level it just getting to this point on some level with these boutique companies that keep taking your money so far in advance, it's becoming unethical to do it this way."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~18:00
> _Direct statement of the episode's central thesis about manufacturer conduct_

> "Everyone's losing. I'm going to explain why everyone's losing in this situation. And I know it might not seem obvious that the manufacturers are losing as well, but I'm going to explain why I think they're losing as well."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~08:00
> _Sets up the structural analysis of how non-refundable deposits harm all parties despite appearing to benefit manufacturers_

> "Pretty much every single pinball machine remains available. And I think we're all starting to realize that like, maybe, just maybe, chasing after the new in-box craze is actually biting us all."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~35:00
> _Key consumer behavior insight: the secondary market is saturated and FOMO-driven purchases are economically irrational_

> "Do you think they already ordered all the parts for that game? No. Do you think they already made the butter cabinet for my machine? No. I mean, the game is so far out. The same is true with the collector's editions of Toy Story."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~42:00
> _Dismantles the customization justification for non-refundable deposits on mass-produced games_

> "I'm not doing it again. I'm done with it. I'm tired of it. There's no money to be made unless I see a spectacular pinball machine."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~65:00
> _Personal commitment to exit the FOMO loop, representing potential broader community shift_

> "The team that's making Scooby-Doo is the same team that made Ultraman and Halloween. Why do we think it's going to be like amazing? Why? Like if you use the same team to make the next product, why is it going to get so much better?"
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~72:00
> _Skepticism about Spooky Pinball's ability to improve quality with rapid release cadence_

> "When you can sell something without even showing people it, like you've crossed over into the supernal realm of marketing and it actually made suckers out of all of us."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~50:00
> _Acknowledges manufacturer sophistication in exploiting behavioral economics and FOMO mechanics_

> "I think Toy Story Collector's Edition will be the final burn. Like this burn is going to burn people hard."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~55:00
> _Prediction that Toy Story 4 CE will trigger inflection point in consumer confidence and market dynamics_

> "It's a lose for them because they are basically now locking people in to a product of theirs that those people might not really want... people who are spending $15,000, the most they've ever spent on a pinball machine, new in box ever, and they're dejected."
> — **Chris Kaneda**, ~45:00
> _Articulates the reputational and customer satisfaction damage to manufacturers from forced purchases_

### Entities

| Name | Type | Context |
|------|------|---------|
| Chris Kaneda | person | Host of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast; 7+ years covering the hobby; critic of industry practices |
| Stern Pinball | company | Major pinball manufacturer; planning Comic-Con presence; teasing Venom game; discussed as model for efficient manufacturing |
| Multimorphic | company | Boutique manufacturer in Texas; struggling to hire line workers; revealed Weird Al game ~5 months before production readiness |
| Jersey Jack Pinball | company | Manufacturer using non-refundable deposits; producing Toy Story 4 Collector's Edition; takes distributor deposits day one |
| Spooky Pinball | company | Originated non-refundable deposit practice with Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle; announcing games without full gameplay reveal; producing Ultraman, Halloween, Scooby-Doo |
| Haggis Pinball | company | Boutique manufacturer; Damien (owner) initially promised July production start, later delayed; now shipping Mermaid Editions |
| Dutch Pinball | company | Adopted non-refundable deposit practice; boutique manufacturer with extended development cycles |
| American Pinball | company | Boutique manufacturer; discussed as example of uncertain assembly line efficiency |
| Chicago Gaming Company | company | Boutique manufacturer (CGC); limited visibility on assembly line operations |
| Zach Manning | person | Industry commentator; predicted Stern's typical reveal strategy for Venom |
| Jerry Stellenberg | person | Multimorphic head; revealed Weird Al prematurely; acknowledged workforce hiring challenges |
| Damien | person | Haggis Pinball owner; initially misrepresented production timeline |
| Keith Elwin | person | Pinball designer; only designer whose machines are predicted to maintain secondary market scalping value |
| Andrew Heway | person | Alien Pinball company founder; blamed refunds for company failure rather than acknowledging manufacturing inefficiency |
| Toy Story 4 | game | Jersey Jack Pinball title; Collector's Edition at $15,000; 1,000+ units in production; viewed as inflection point for market collapse |
| Weird Al | game | Multimorphic licensed game; revealed ~5 months before production capability; orders with $2,000 deposits |
| Ultraman | game | Spooky Pinball title; 500 units; non-refundable $2,500 deposits; same design team as Halloween and Scooby-Doo |
| Halloween | game | Spooky Pinball title; 1,250 units; non-refundable deposits; same design team as Ultraman and Scooby-Doo |
| Scooby-Doo | game | Upcoming Spooky Pinball title; same design team as Ultraman and Halloween; questioned whether software quality will improve |
| Venom | game | Upcoming Stern Pinball title; teased at Comic-Con; expected fall release; not revealed at show despite speculation |
| Guns N' Roses Collector's Edition | game | Previous release; originally $18,000; prices dropped to slightly above sticker within 1.5 years, illustrating secondary market collapse |
| Godzilla | game | Recent Stern release; described as one of the best pinball machines of all time; still holds secondary market value for flipping |
| Back to the Future | game | Referenced as example of machine with sustained more-demand-than-supply dynamics justifying pre-order investment |
| The Matrix | game | Referenced as example of machine with sustained more-demand-than-supply dynamics justifying pre-order investment |
| Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle | game | Spooky Pinball title; 500 units; first game to implement non-refundable deposits (or possibly Rob Zombie) |

### Topics

- **Primary:** Non-refundable deposits ethics and policy, Early game announcements and manufacturer responsibility, Manufacturing capacity and workforce constraints, FOMO engineering and consumer behavior exploitation, Secondary market pricing and scalping decline, Pinball pricing inflation and market sustainability
- **Secondary:** Distributor financial exposure and customer satisfaction, Warranty gaps and consumer protection

### Sentiment

**Negative** (-0.82) — Chris Kaneda expresses strong frustration with industry practices, calling them unethical and professionally irresponsible. While he maintains measured tone and acknowledges consumer complicity, the episode is fundamentally a critique. Ends with personal commitment to reject the system. Some lighter moments (Brian Wilson reference, community moderation) provide minimal positive offset.

### Signals

- **[business_signal]** Multimorphic acknowledged difficulty hiring line workers for Weird Al production despite revealing game 5+ months before manufacturing readiness (confidence: high) — Chris citing Jerry Stellenberg's statements about workforce challenges in rural Texas location
- **[market_signal]** Pinball secondary market for recent releases shows rapid price normalization; Guns N' Roses CE dropped from $18K+ to near-sticker within 1.5 years (confidence: high) — Chris's direct observation of GNR CE market and prediction that scalping is essentially dead outside Keith Elwin/James Bond
- **[product_strategy]** Manufacturers intentionally reveal games before showing full gameplay and lock deposits pre-reveal to maximize pre-order capture (confidence: high) — Chris explicitly naming this as deliberate strategy and contrasting it with historical custom-order justifications
- **[regulatory_signal]** Standard pinball deposit contracts lack safeguards for shipping delays, quality issues, or production timeline failures; no refund triggers defined (confidence: high) — Chris examining typical contract language and noting absence of protective clauses
- **[sentiment_shift]** Community sentiment shifting away from FOMO-driven pre-orders; Toy Story 4 CE viewed as potential inflection point for market reset (confidence: high) — Chris claiming people are 'tired of it' and predicting Toy Story 4 will be 'final burn' that changes behavior; himself refusing future non-refundable deposits
- **[community_signal]** Kaneda's Patreon comment section hosting substantive debate on industry practices; host issuing moderation warning against personal attacks (confidence: medium) — Chris welcoming FreakyGuys666 to conversation and setting community standards for civil disagreement
- **[competitive_signal]** Keith Elwin identified as only designer whose machines are predicted to maintain secondary market scalping premiums (confidence: medium) — Chris stating 'only machine I ever think you're going to be able to scalp for like a decent profit will be the machines from Keith Elwin'
- **[machine_intel]** Stern Venom expected to be teased at Comic-Con but full reveal postponed per standard Stern protocol; fall release window implied (confidence: high) — Chris analyzing Stern's historical reveal strategy and blurred Mandalorian teaser image visibility at Comic-Con
- **[product_concern]** Pinball pricing has doubled vs. 6-7 years ago ($15K CEs vs. historical $7-8K); market may not sustain without extraordinary game quality (confidence: high) — Chris contrasting Pro ($5K→~$11K), LE ($7.5K→$15K), Premium pricing evolution
- **[industry_signal]** Stern and (to lesser degree) Jersey Jack have assembly efficiency that boutique manufacturers cannot match; visible in behind-scenes photography (confidence: medium) — Chris comparing assembly line photos across manufacturers, noting Spooky shows activity while others appear slow
- **[historical_signal]** Non-refundable deposit practice originated with Spooky Pinball on Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle (possibly Rob Zombie) to prevent customization cancellations (confidence: medium) — Chris tracing policy history across 7 years of industry coverage with minor uncertainty on which game started it
- **[design_philosophy]** Spooky Pinball's rapid release cadence (Ultraman → Halloween → Scooby-Doo) with same design team raises questions about software quality improvement and iteration time (confidence: medium) — Chris questioning whether quick sequential releases allow adequate code refinement and optimization

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## Transcript

 I'm lyin' in bed, just like Brian Wilson did. What I have, I'm lyin' in bed, just like Brian Wilson did. Oh, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast. What is this, a midweek show? We're going to make it harder to win that twippy. You're going to have to steal it from me. All right, so here's the thing. We're probably not going to get Venom this week. I think Zach Manning hit the nail on the head. Stern doesn't do this, right? They don't release a game at a show. They normally put out a teaser, then they have a call with all the dealers and distributors, and then they reveal the game. So they are obviously coming back to conventions with their big sort of pinball setup, like they've got that Stern Arcade. And that's why the image that they're teasing is a blurred image of the Mandalorian. So Stern Pinball is going to be at Comic-Con. They're going to be with Ozzy Osbourne and Todd McFarlane, and maybe they'll tease Venom, but I don't think we're going to see the game, and that means we're going to have to wait. And I know we were all so excited to finally get past this period of waiting for Stern to get us a new game, and we're not going to talk more about Toy Story, So what do I want to talk about on this episode of Canadas Pinball Podcast? The thing I want to talk about on this episode is I think we've all learned a lesson in pinball. And I think, you know, as I look at what's happening with some of these companies and the news over at Multimorphic that Jerry's having a hard time finding workers. And if you ordered a Weird Al, you have no idea when you're getting your game. And yet you gave a $2,000 deposit. Some of you gave $2,000 on Ultraman and Halloween and you don't want the game now. Some of you gave $2,500 on Toy Story and you might not want the game now. I want to talk a little bit about two things. I want to talk about the ethics of a manufacturer announcing and revealing a game, taking your money and then giving you absolutely no real timeline on when you can expect your game and basically turning consumers into kickstarters. Like you are no longer buying a product, you are now investing in a company. So I wanna talk about that. And I also just wanna talk about the history of non-refundable deposits. For some of you out there, you might not remember when it all started. And I wanna talk about where do we go from here? Because obviously this system is set in place to try to prevent people from like scalping machines. I get that part of it. It's also meant to protect manufacturers from overordering parts or maybe making custom machines that people then don't want. And you could argue that for consumers, it's meant to sort of secure your spot. But I think over the last year and a half, I think all of us are now realizing that these non-refundable deposits aren't really working well for anybody. Like everyone's losing. I'm going to explain why everyone's losing in this situation. And I know it might not seem obvious that the manufacturers are losing as well, but I'm going to explain why I think they're losing as well. Now, let's go back to sort of P3 Multimorphic because I was listening to Zach's show and I know Jerry's been telling people that they're having a really hard time finding people to join Multimorphic, work in the middle of nowhere, Texas, probably work for minimum wage and then do a very highly skilled job like putting together a pinball machine. Why would anybody want this job? It is really hard to find line workers to make pinball machines. It's a lot easier to design a prototype, to get people excited, to bring said prototype to shows, and then to get like 300 orders on the machine. It's a lot harder to then find people to put together those 300 machines. And when you look at a pinball machine and you think about all the elements that have to go together to make an assembly line. It's a really, really ginormous headache on a manufacturing level. And that's why Stern Pinball does it so well. I think Jersey Jack has learned the hard way how to become more effective and efficient. There's still nowhere near where Stern is at. And everyone else, when you look at the photos, like look at the photos at American Pinball. Have we seen any photos from CGC? You know, I think Spooky is the other one who actually has like their assembly line figured out. When you see Spooky Pinball and they show you behind the scenes, there's always people there. There's always machines lined up. But when it comes to everybody else, when it comes to all the other boutiques, when we see their assembly lines, you never really see people. You never see a lot of activity. It feels like a very, very slow burn to make a game. But here's the part that I'm taking issue with. If you're Gerry Stellenberg and you know you've got Weird Al. You know you're going to sell like a few hundred of them. You finally have a licensed theme. It overlaps nicely with the pinball fan base. You know you're going to sell the machines. So why did you reveal a game when you knew you were like maybe six or more months away from being able to really turn on the assembly line? And here we are almost six months later since the game was revealed. I think it's been like five months, right? He revealed it right before TPF. So it's like March, April, May, June, July. So five months later, we are now hearing that they're having issues getting people to work at Multimorphic. Shouldn't he have figured out those issues before he revealed the game? And now if you put a deposit down on this game, you didn't buy your game. Your money is now going to try to find like resources to actually build your game. Your money is going to go to rent. Your money is going to go to vendors. Your money is going to go to a human resource person trying to find temp workers. All of that costs money. It costs money to go to a temp agency. It costs money to train people. It costs money to find employees. And so then your margins get smaller and smaller and smaller But my thing is this I think it was just unprofessional And on some level it just getting to this point on some level with these boutique companies that keep taking your money so far in advance, it's becoming unethical to do it that way. And look, everyone is a buyer. You guys have all the power, right? This holds true for not just this topic, but also for the non-refundable deposit topic we're going to talk about, is that we ultimately have all of the power. Like nobody's making us buy these things. Nobody needs to put a deposit down. Like right now, you could still go get a Weird Al LE. There are distributors that still have a spot for sale. But what's the point in even like putting your money up or waiting a year and risking it all? Why? Why? You know, I was talking to a friend yesterday about Guns N' Roses collector's edition, right? Remember all the hoopla, how hard it was to get one and it was like $18,000 and you felt like you missed out. Well, here we are a year and a half later, and you can go get a Guns and Roses collector's edition for just a couple thousand dollars more than it was new. Like the prices come all the way back down and you could have invested that money. You've could have made money off of your 12.5 and then you wouldn't even have had to really spend anything more, but you would have removed a few things from this scenario. You would have removed a few things. You would have removed the risk, right? You would have removed the risk of maybe like paying way more than the game is worth. Like if you paid $18,000, $19,000 for a GNR CE, right now you're probably regretting it a little bit because you can get it for cheaper. You also would have known you liked the game because you could have waited for the code to be finalized. You could have jumped on the machine and you could have played it for a year and then decided if you wanted to buy it. Pretty much every single pinball machine remains available. And I think we're all starting to realize that Like maybe, just maybe, chasing after the new in-box craze is actually biting us all. It was a lot of fun years ago to chase after all the new in-box games and to think about buying them and to think about the potential to enjoy them. And look, yes, there was always the potential to flip the machines and make some money if you wanted to do a quick flip. Those days are over. It's just not really happening anymore. Now look, is there still room to quick flip some things for a few thousand dollars? yes but only if the game is amazing like only if the game is like Godzilla like nobody's flipping Rush LE for a few thousand dollars but if you have Godzilla new in box you can flip it for a few thousand dollars over sticker you might get three to four thousand dollars but we're also talking about one of the best pinball machines of all time that's not going to happen with Venom you're not going to be able to flip Venom for the same price as Godzilla right you're not going to be able to flip let's say they make Foo Fighters that's not going to be a game you're going to flip from like 11.5 for 16.5. It's just not going to happen, especially with the fact that now everyone's realizing there's a thousand of them. With a thousand LEs out there or a thousand CEs, there's no room to flip. But my point being is if you just wait, you can go get the game. You'll be able to go get a fathom from Haggis a year from now for not much more than sticker. You'll be able to go get weird out a year from now for not much over sticker. And so it begs the question as a community, aren't we over being Kickstarters for all these boutique companies? Aren't we over these companies revealing games way too early? And it's not just Haggis. It's not just Multimorphic. It's CGC. This practice of revealing a game and then making your customers wait almost a year to get it is absolutely a name. And I don't know about you, but I would totally be exhausted and over this practice. And the other part is this. It's like if you're going to take someone's money and then make them wait forever and a day, and then there's no way to get a refund, that's the part that I just don't like. Do you all remember where non-refundable deposits happened in pinball? Now, I've been covering this hobby for like seven years now. And there was one game in which it started it all. There was one company that started it all. Do you know which company it was? It was Spooky Pinball. It was Spooky Pinball. And I believe it was Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle was the first game where it was non-refundable deposits. It might have been Rob Zombie, but I think it was Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle in which they made, I believe, 500 of them. And the reason why they did it, because on Rob Zombie, they allowed people to customize their games. They allowed people to pick like different armor and different this and different that. And what was happening was people were ordering their games a specific way and then they bailed on the game. And Spooky was left with a spot that they needed to sell. But more importantly, they were left with like a customized version of the game. And they basically said with Alice Cooper's, all deposits are non-refundable because we're going to order your game parts specifically for your game. So if you wanted a butter cabinet and you wanted the different colored armor, we were going to make that many. And then you can't get your money back because we're basically building a custom machine for you. And so that's where it all started on Alice Cooper's Nightmare Castle. And now we've seen this practice adopted by more companies. We're seeing Jersey Jack do it. We're seeing Haggis do it. We saw Dutch Pinball do it. We've seen a lot of people do this. You know, people forget like back in the day, Andrew Highway, when he was giving everyone runarounds on alien production, all the deposits were refundable. Now he blames the refunds on the reason why the company went under. He doesn't blame himself or his own inefficiency or his own ineptitude. He blamed it on the fact that people wanted their money back. But I just haven't seen another industry. And I think I'm over this whole thing where like in pinball, we now have no ability to get our money back. We also have basically no warranty on any of these products. If you read the warranty on your pinball machine, there's absolutely almost nothing covered in the warranty. Okay, but let's get back to the refunds. So here we are today in 2022. And I think what's annoying me about this whole non-refundable deposit is these companies aren building custom games for you Like you not ordering your Ferrari with brown leather seats and like yellow exterior and this is a very specific item They're making like a thousand collector's editions of Toy Story. They're making 1,250 Halloweens and 500 Ultramans. These aren't highly customized games anymore. So let me ask you a question. So if you ordered Ultraman on day one with a non-refundable deposit and I'm number 500, I'm the last person on the list, and I know a year and a half out that I don't want the game anymore, that I put my deposit down, and I know this is on me. I put my deposit down, and then I see the game, and I play the game in one week, and then I don't want it. They're a year away from making my game, and you're telling me that they can't refund me my money, or better yet, well, why not just give me credit for a future spooky game and then not make that game? Do you think they already ordered all the parts for that game? No. Do you think they already made the butter cabinet for my machine? No. I mean, the game is so far out. The same is true with the collector's editions of Toy Story. They haven't made them yet. There's plenty of time to find new buyers if you want out. And this is why JJP is like bumping their chest. Because this whole system, guys, it's absolutely 100% skewed for the benefit of the manufacturer. And there's nothing about this that is good for the consumer. Here's what happened on day one, I think. And I'm just making a few assumptions. But on day one, when Jersey Jack Pinball launches Toy Story, they're basically going to all of their distributors and saying, if you want your allotment, you've got to give us $2,500 for each of your CEs and that will secure your allotment of Toy Story CEs. And that money went over to Jersey Jack Pinball probably on day one. So let's just say hypothetically a major distributor has 100 collector's editions they've been promised. So that means, let's say Automated has 100. That means they're cutting Jersey Jack a check for $250,000 for those 100 games. And then they invoice their list of people who are interested in Toy Story collector's editions. And that's how it's working. And then what's happening is this, is that if you said you wanted one, your money is being sent to Jersey Jack Pinball. And even if you haven't really seen the game yet, and if you want to cancel your order on day one, right? You see the game, you realize it's not for you, you don't want Toy Story 4. A lot of people are being said, nope, can't get your money back. Like we've already sent your money to Jersey Jack Pinball to allocate your spot. Because you said you wanted one, and we paid for our allocation. And yet this game is not even being made until the fall. So we've got four months before the game's actually made and you have some people that don't want it anymore. And now those people have to try to sell their spot to somebody else. And don't forget that the warranties are non-transferable. And so all of this is just weird to me. And this is why I think it's a lose, lose, lose situation. It's a lose for the manufacturers, even though they're putting money in the bank, which is a win for them, right? It's a lose for them because they are basically now locking people in to a product of theirs that those people might not really want. I was talking to one of my friends who's in on a collector's edition of Toy Story and he's like, Chris, I can't get a refund. I gotta take the game. And he was talking about it in such a sad way. Like he was kind of like dejected, like, oh well, shoulder shrug, it's on me. I made that decision. I have to take the game. I would rather just go get a used LE, but there's nothing I can do. And hearing him talk about this is why it's a lose because you basically have people who are spending $15,000, the most they've ever spent on a pinball machine, new in box ever, and they're dejected or they're backing up into the purchase. And I get it. It's all of our faults. We all could have said no and waited to see the game and then made a decision. But we've almost been engineered this way. Like this hobby has engineered all of us to have this FOMO and run at it. And guess who engineered all this FOMO? The manufacturers did. They absolutely did. And they love this. Like this absolutely benefits them. But where it's starting to eat away, and this is why it's a lose for the manufacturers, is they're also starting to create a lot of ill will between the consumer and them because the consumer feels like they don't like this anymore. They don't want to be locked in and they don't want to feel like disappointed that you're now forcing them to buy from you. And then the distributors, right? It's a lose for the distributors because a lot of them are putting up a lot of money up front and they might be left holding the bag if they can't find a thousand people to buy these collector's editions. You know, they've been starving for inventory, but I can tell you this, what distributors did not want was there to be a thousand of Toy Story 4 at $15,000 a pop. Because the more money you charge for these machines, the harder it is for these distributors to find buyers. It's just the law of economics. The more you charge, the less consumers you have potentially. And also the other part is this, the last thing a distributor wants to do is tell one of its longtime customers, sorry, I can't give you a refund. Sorry, I can't give you your money back because I put out your money. Like basically it's like, let's just say hypothetically, I bought this game through Zach. Zach will be like, Chris, I took your 2,500 and I gave it to Jersey Jack Pinball. They have your money. They haven't made your game yet. You don't want the game anymore, but I can't give you your money back because they have it. Now, I do think it begs the question, why can't you just have credit with Jersey Jack Pinball? Like, I get it if you don't want to give me my money back, but at least give me credit towards a future Jersey Jack game that I might want. It's not like there's that many games coming out every year from this company where that would be a clerical nightmare to figure that part out. So I think the distributors are losing too because they're disappointing some of their customers. And ultimately, as customers, we're all losing out on this non-refundable shenanigans. We are. Like, we're the biggest losers in all of it because we were engineered to have all of this FOMO, and these companies took advantage of us. They did. You telling me when Spooky Pinball announces two new games and doesn even show us the game and requires people to put non deposits before they even show you the game itself That that's not taking advantage of people's addiction and excitement and FOMO around this hobby. They absolutely knew what they were doing. Jerry knew what he was doing when he revealed the game six months before he even has people there making the games. Damien knew what he was doing at Haggis Pinball when he lied to everyone and said games were going to start in July being made. I'm glad he's making games now. I'm seeing Mermaid editions go out the door. But he absolutely lied to people. He knew he was not going to have games on the line in two months. And yet your money's non-refundable. If you're at the end of that Mermaid order and you want your money back, you still can't get your money back. And here's the part I don't like about any of this. Nowhere in the contract, nowhere in the contract is there anything that says like, if the game doesn't ship by this date, you can get your money back. Nowhere in the contract does it say if we have play field issues with the game, you can get a refund. And I think what we need in these contracts with these non-refundable deposits is a little bit of a window. Like give people a window to make up their mind and then you give it non-refundable. The reason why these manufacturers don't want there to be a window, they don't want you to play the game. They don't want you to see too much of the gameplay. It's absolutely in their best interest to get us to fall in love with wanting these things without seeing enough to make us change our minds. Look, it's smart marketing. Don't get me wrong. When you can sell something without even showing people it, like you've crossed over into the supernal realm of marketing and it actually made suckers out of all of us. But I do think people have woken up. I think people are tired of it. And I do think Toy Story Collector's Edition will be the final burn. Like this burn is going to burn people hard. And it's not just scalpers getting burned. Yes, are scalpers getting burned? Absolutely. Scalping in pinball is almost done. The only scalping left, and I'm just going to say it right now, the only machine I ever think you're going to be able to scalp for like a decent profit will be the machines from Keith Elwin. And I think everything else, I don't know, James Bond, maybe. But again, I think if Kapow and Gomez make James Bond, I think they're going to price it extraordinarily high. I think they're going to do another Batman SLE thing on some of the limited editions of the game. It's like Elvira 40th. I mean, they sold them to distributors for 15K. And then you had people spending like 20,000 to get one. I think these days are coming to an end. I really do. I think we didn't just hit the pinball ceiling. I think we flew into it and we crashed beyond it. The only place to go now, and I keep saying it, the only place to go now is to make extraordinary games. games. At these prices, every game needs to be extraordinary. But I do implore all of you, don't give non-refundable deposits again. I'm not doing it again. I'm done with it. I'm tired of it. There's no money to be made unless I see a spectacular pinball machine. Only when I know there's going to be more demand than supply, like Back to the Future, like Matrix. But you're not going to see it with Godfather. You're not going to see it with Toy Story 4. You're not going to see it with Halloween and Ultraman. You're not going to see it with Scooby-Doo. You're just not going to see it. Like we're all smarter now. Do you guys realize that the team that's making Scooby-Doo is the same team that made Ultraman and Halloween? Why do we think it's going to be like amazing? Why? Like if you use the same team to make the next product, why is it going to get so much better? Did they learn how to code much better? Did they learn how to design much better after just one game? They quickly moved on to Scooby-Doo after Ultraman and Halloween. But I really think the software department is where things are going to fall down with Spooky. I just don't know if they can code a game as good as everybody else in the industry, but we'll see. We'll see. We've got a few months to wait. All right, so that's just my take. I think it's unethical to reveal games like a year before you're ready to make them. I think we need to wise up as consumers and stop chasing after this stuff. I know we've been engineered to have all the FOMO, but I don't like these non-refundable deposits. I think a lot of people are going to be walking away losing money. I also think a lot of people are going to be losing a lot of money when they realize how much in value these games are going to lose now. The more these games cost, the more you're going to lose. It's not the other way around. This is a really fun hobby when you can get LEs for $7,000 and pros for $5,000. Remember when a pro machine used to be like $4,500, $5,000? An LE was $7,500. A premium was what, like $6,500? Remember those days, those halcyon days of old. Like it's all too much money. Everyone's realizing that like you're now paying almost double what you used to pay like six, seven years ago. And it's not worth it. I think everyone's realizing that like, and who the hell wants to lose two to $3,000 every time they buy a pinball machine now, it's just not going to work out. So everybody happy Wednesday, happy hump day. We've got more time to wait for Venom. It's going to be Venom. I was right that it's Venom. Yeah. I didn't think it was going to be at Comic-Con. I was just responding to what other people were saying. But here we are. Okay, so I called that it was Venom. I was wrong about Comic-Con. The other thing I'll say is this. We're having a lot more conversation happening on the Patreon comment section, which is nice. I like this debate. And welcome to the party, FreakyGuys666. But I just want to say this. Guys, play nice with each other. If I see you personally attacking other people or calling people like mental midgets, I'm going to ban you. I'm giving everyone a warning at the same time right now. Have a debate. It's okay if you disagree with me. It's okay if you disagree with each other. But don't get into a personal attack territory. This isn't Pinside. I won't tolerate that. This is a fun place to spread all of your toxic positivity about Toy Story 4, okay? everybody have a great day we'll talk to you soon

_(Acquisition: groq_whisper, Enrichment: v3)_

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*Exported from Journalist Tool on 2026-04-13 | Item ID: 26e7759f-74b7-4daa-8ce2-a65b9d9bd72e*