# Episode 871: "999 People Just Lost $3,000"

**Source:** Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)  
**Type:** podcast_episode  
**Published:** 2023-11-06  
**Duration:** 18m 27s  
**Beat:** Pinball

**URL:** https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-871-999-92393222

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## Analysis

Kaneda delivers a scathing analysis of pinball market collapse, citing a Foo Fighters Limited Edition dropping $3,000 in value within a year as evidence that Stern's inflated $13,000 LE pricing and oversaturation strategy has destroyed collector value retention. He argues the market is experiencing a catastrophic correction driven by stalled sales, distributor anxiety, and consumer shift from FOMO purchasing to wait-and-see behavior, with Stern facing existential risk due to factory overcapacity and inventory pileup.

### Key Claims

- [HIGH] A new-in-box Foo Fighters Limited Edition sold for $9,995, down $3,000 from original MSRP of approximately $12,999 — _Direct observation: 'You can now go get it new in the box for $9,995' with reference to it being the Limited Edition variant_
- [HIGH] All 999 Foo Fighters LE units are now worth $9,995 or less due to market depreciation — _Direct logical consequence: 'now 999 people who own the other Foo Fighter James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition) machines, all of those machines are now worth either this much or less'_
- [MEDIUM] Distributor sales are 'absolutely flat' with no movement even on discounted games — _Reported from distributor contacts: 'I've been hearing from distributors, sales are absolutely flat. Nothing is moving.'_
- [MEDIUM] Stern is experiencing inventory pileup in boxes at their new factory — _Reported from 'very reliable source': 'games are piling up at Stern Pinball in boxes'_
- [HIGH] Stern has made Limited Edition production runs of 1,000 units at $13,000 MSRP, up from Godzilla's $10,500 — _Direct statement: 'the moment they make a thousand units at $13,000 a pop, look what happens'_
- [MEDIUM] Stern will release multiple versions of Jaws including an anniversary edition within a year, following the pattern of Jurassic Park, Elvira's House of Horrors, and Godzilla — _Prediction based on established pattern: 'They did it with Jurassic Park. They did it with Elvira's House of Horrors. We know they're going to do it with Godzilla and we know they're going to do it with Jaws.'_
- [HIGH] Guns N' Roses Collector's Edition dropped from $20,000 at launch to $13,000 new-in-box as of November 2023 — _Direct market observation: 'That game used to sell for $20,000 at the height of its launch. $20,000 for a new in the box Guns N' Roses CE... Same exact game, 2023, November, $13,000.'_
- [MEDIUM] Distributors make $1,500-$2,000 profit per Limited Edition at the Godzilla price point of $10,500 — _Industry insight: 'Your distributors are making about $1,500 to $2,000 on every one they sell' at Godzilla pricing_

### Notable Quotes

> "999 people just lost $3,000 in value erased from their Foo Fighters James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition)"
> — **Kaneda**, Opening/Title reference
> _Episode title encapsulates core thesis about market collapse impact on collectors_

> "The real death of the pinball market will be when people cannot sell their used games to free up space to buy the new games."
> — **Kaneda**, Early segment
> _Identifies liquidity crisis as existential threat to the hobby's ecosystem_

> "They're going to make a nicer version of the game like a year from now... They absolutely are just going to screw over everybody that is plunking down so much money."
> — **Kaneda**, Mid-segment
> _Articulates consumer distrust in Stern's strategy of planned obsolescence through variant releases_

> "Games are piling up at Stern Pinball in boxes. It's going to look like that scene from Indiana Jones and Raiders of the Lost Ark, you know, the military archives with all the boxes."
> — **Kaneda**, Inventory discussion
> _Vivid imagery of factory overcapacity and inventory crisis from insider source_

> "FOMO is now dead, ladies and gentlemen... if everybody's slowing down their purchasing and everybody is waiting it out, then now we have the power to control the prices on these games"
> — **Kaneda**, Mid-segment
> _Declares end of fear-of-missing-out as market driver; signals consumer power shift_

> "I'm not asking it to go back to like eight years ago, nine years ago. I'm just asking it to go back to where Godzilla was, because... Godzilla was right at the beginning of COVID. $10,500 for a Limited Edition."
> — **Kaneda**, Price correction discussion
> _Identifies Godzilla pricing as reasonable equilibrium; frames $10,500 as sustainable_

> "If you just listened to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, I would have saved you money."
> — **Kaneda**, Closing segment
> _Self-referential claim about podcast's track record of recommending 'wait and see'_

> "I'm starting to feel like Stern and Jersey Jack Pinball, I don't feel the love anymore like I used to from some of those companies."
> — **Kaneda**, Closing
> _Personal sentiment shift; signals loss of consumer trust in major manufacturers_

### Entities

| Name | Type | Context |
|------|------|---------|
| Kaneda | person | Host of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast; industry analyst tracking market trends and pricing; claims track record of recommending 'wait and see' strategy |
| Stern Pinball | company | Primary subject of criticism; accused of unsustainable $13,000 LE pricing, factory overcapacity, inventory pileup, planned obsolescence via variant releases, and market collapse |
| Jersey Jack Pinball | company | Secondary criticism target; noted for financial dependence on Abbas family; Elton John sales flatlined; Collector's Edition pricing unsustainable |
| Spooky Pinball | company | Positioned as financially resilient boutique; praised for customer care and community engagement; immune to market collapse due to smaller operational footprint |
| Barrels of Fun | company | Boutique manufacturer expected to weather market downturn; smaller operational scale provides insulation from crisis |
| Dutch Pinball | company | Boutique manufacturer mentioned as likely to survive market correction due to smaller operations |
| Foo Fighters | game | Stern Limited Edition by Jack Danger; case study for market collapse—$3,000 value loss within one year; new-in-box price $9,995 |
| Jaws | game | Upcoming Stern release positioned by industry as market savior; Kaneda skeptical; expects multiple variant releases following established pattern |
| Elton John | game | Jersey Jack Pinball title; sales flatlined; criticized for lack of toys and cheap LCD screen implementation; pricing $12,000-$15,000 unjustifiable |
| Godzilla | game | Stern Limited Edition priced at $10,500 at launch; identified as sustainable price point and template for market equilibrium |
| Guns N' Roses | game | Jersey Jack Collector's Edition; market indicator—dropped from $20,000 to $13,000 (November 2023); demonstrates broader depreciation trend |
| Jurassic Park | game | Stern example of multiple variant release strategy; cited as precedent for planned Jaws variants |
| Elvira's House of Horrors | game | Stern example of multiple variant release strategy; cited as precedent for planned Jaws variants |
| Venom | game | Stern Limited Edition; described as 'mediocre'; experienced value depreciation; illustrates mediocre games losing significant value |
| James Bond 60th Anniversary | game | Stern Limited Edition; used in example of rapid depreciation—part of $12,000+ losses on three machines purchased in one year |
| Labyrinth | game | Barrels of Fun title; predicted not to hold value at $10,600 MSRP; subject to same market depreciation pressure |
| Jack Danger | person | Designer of Foo Fighters; referred to as 'Jack Danger's inaugural effort' |
| Abbas family | person | Financially supporting Jersey Jack Pinball; implied to be sole reason company remains solvent |

### Topics

- **Primary:** Market collapse and depreciation, Stern Pinball pricing strategy and failure, Limited Edition oversaturation (1,000 units at $13,000), Distributor inventory crisis and stalled sales, FOMO marketing dead; consumer 'wait and see' behavior
- **Secondary:** Boutique vs. mass-manufacturer business resilience, Secondary market liquidity and trading friction, Stern's factory overcapacity and expansion costs

### Sentiment

**Negative** (-0.85) — Episode is intensely critical and pessimistic about pinball industry trajectory; Kaneda expresses alarm, disappointment, and concern about existential threats to manufacturers and hobby sustainability. Brief positive sentiment only toward Spooky Pinball's customer service at closing. Predominant tone is condemnation of Stern and Jersey Jack Pinball's business decisions.

### Signals

- **[business_signal]** Jersey Jack Pinball financially dependent on Abbas family support; would be insolvent without external capital (confidence: low) — 'We know Jersey Jack Pinball... they'd be out of business if it wasn't for the Abbas family'
- **[business_signal]** Distributor sales stalled across product lines; even discounted games not moving (confidence: medium) — 'I've been hearing from distributors, sales are absolutely flat. Nothing is moving... even if you take money off the price of those games... People are not buying'
- **[business_signal]** Stern experiencing significant inventory pileup at new expanded factory (confidence: medium) — 'heard from a very reliable source, games are piling up at Stern Pinball in boxes'
- **[competitive_signal]** Boutique manufacturers (Spooky, Barrels of Fun, Dutch Pinball) positioned as market survivors due to smaller operational footprint; immune to pricing collapse (confidence: medium) — 'smaller boutiques like Spooky Pinball and Barrels of Fun and Dutch Pinball, I think they're going to be fine because their operations aren't so big'
- **[market_signal]** Sustainability threshold identified: Godzilla pricing ($10,500 LE) represented equilibrium with healthy distributor margins ($1,500-$2,000) and value retention (confidence: medium) — 'Your distributors are making about $1,500 to $2,000 on every one they sell' at Godzilla pricing; implicit value stability
- **[market_signal]** Guns N' Roses CE depreciated from $20,000 at launch to $13,000 new-in-box (November 2023) (confidence: high) — Direct pricing comparison from market observation
- **[market_signal]** Stern LE pricing increased from Godzilla's $10,500 to $13,000+ for 1,000-unit production runs, triggering market collapse (confidence: high) — 'the moment they make a thousand units at $13,000 a pop, look what happens. The market is oversaturated'
- **[market_signal]** Foo Fighters Limited Edition dropped $3,000 in value (from ~$13,000 MSRP to $9,995) within approximately one year of release (confidence: high) — Direct observation of new-in-box sale listing; $3,000 depreciation figure anchors entire episode
- **[product_concern]** Elton John (JJP) sales flatlined; gameplay footage making situation worse by exposing lack of toys and cheap LCD implementation (confidence: medium) — 'Nobody's buying Elton John... every time you see the gameplay, there's no toys in the damn game. And then the damn LCD screen looks like a cheap screensaver'
- **[sentiment_shift]** Consumer trust erosion in major manufacturers; Kaneda reports loss of 'love' for Stern and JJP compared to boutique companies demonstrating community care (confidence: high) — 'I'm starting to feel like Stern and Jersey Jack Pinball, I don't feel the love anymore like I used to from some of those companies'
- **[sentiment_shift]** Community abandoning FOMO-driven purchasing; shift to 'wait and see' behavior reducing demand for new releases (confidence: high) — 'FOMO is now dead, ladies and gentlemen... everybody is waiting it out'
- **[business_signal]** Stern implementing planned obsolescence strategy: releasing multiple variants (anniversary editions) of same game within 12-24 months (confidence: medium) — 'They did it with Jurassic Park. They did it with Elvira's House of Horrors. We know they're going to do it with Jaws'

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## Transcript

 I was one day with one person, but that's morning. Money changes over time. I said morning. Money changes over time. I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said. Ah, good morning everybody. Welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast. The only pinball podcast that's been telling everybody wait and see and why buy now. and now it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I woke up this morning and I saw a Foo Fighters LE, new in box, Foo Fighters LE, the game of the year. It is going to be the game of the year. It is a phenomenal pinball machine. Jack Danger's inaugural effort. It is such a good machine. You can now go get it new in box for $9,995. Now this is symbolic of where this entire market is right now. It's symbolic that the pinball marketplace has flatlined people. Nobody is buying Elton John. And now games that people bought less than a year ago is losing this much money in value. And what is the phrase people always say? The market will correct itself. The market will dictate where prices net out. And so this morning, this game has now lost $3,000 over the price it was brand new. and the game is still brand new in a box. So now 999 people who own the other Foo Fighter LE machines, all of those machines are now worth either this much money or less. And most of those machines are opened up, so they're not even new in box. And do you think the pinball market can absorb these kinds of losses on a single year ownership of a game? And the real death of the pinball market will be when people cannot sell their used games to free up money and space to buy the new in-box games. Here's what makes no sense to me. How long can this marketplace survive when LEs are sliding down right to the price of premiums in less than a year? So then everybody who bought an LE machine is going to lose 30% value in the game and they're going to be okay with that, it's not going to happen. And basically what we're seeing is this. Stern Pinball never should have raised the prices of LE machines over the $10,500 mark that they had for Godzilla LE. It was the perfect price for the LE, especially if they're going to make a thousand units. But the moment they make a thousand units at $13,000 a pop, look what happens. The market is oversaturated because there's too many of them and there's too much money. And that's a recipe for disaster in any marketplace. So what do you think those 999 people are feeling like today? And all of a sudden this hobby, where one of the greatest selling points of this hobby for people was you weren't really going to lose much money. I've been in this hobby for 10 years. I'm not some newbie running out there buying every single new game. I'm not some distributor screaming at you, buy, buy, buy. And now look at where that message is. You don't hear him saying that much anymore because it's an ignorant statement. But in all of these years of watching this hobby, you know, buy, buy, buy used to mean something because you could buy everything and you wouldn't lose much money. But now it is absolutely collapsing. And now the question becomes, who's going to be the company that actually acknowledges this? If one of these big companies does not wake up to the new market reality. This entire industry is headed for very, very dark times. I think the only companies that are going to be immune to it are going to be the smaller boutique companies that actually offer you a game at what is a much better value. But think about it like this. If everybody's watching these Stern machines lose so much money in such a short period of time, and every week Stern Pinball is making hundreds of games every month. They are putting thousands of games inside boxes and those games need to find a home. Who's buying all of those games? You know, I've been hearing from distributors, sales are absolutely flat. Nothing is moving. And if you think those clearance sale prices have helped them at all, they haven't. It doesn't even matter if you take off from the price of those games Because here why When you remove from the price of those games that what those games used to cost And these are themes that nobody really wants I mean, who even wants one of those home versions of a Stern machine? I don't care how much you put the word sale up and big discounts, big bargains. People are not buying. They're just not buying this stuff. And why would they? Why would they? And I get it that everyone's just waiting for Jaws to come out as if that one game is going to be able to save this entire industry. It's not. We need a market correction on prices from the factory. It is over. This is not going to work. These inflated prices, it is not sustainable. And it is a domino effect that we are now witnessing and it is happening. I've been reaching out to my distributor friends and they don't really know what to do. sales are very very weak and they're only going to get worse because the thing about pinball is this for people to get the money they need to buy the jaws le's and buy the elvira freaking black and white editions and buy a stranger things for most people out there you need to sell something to get the new stuff it's not just a monetary thing some people need to make room for that new game even if they have a lot of money they need to free up space so for those people they need to sell a used game. For some people out there to get new games, you know, they're all not multimillionaires. They need to sell some of their old games to free up some money to get one of the newer games. But now we've got this terrible scenario, right? It's a war on two fronts that everybody is losing because consumers can't sell their used games quickly anymore. Nobody's biting. And why would anybody bite, right? The other thing too is like for a lot of these used pin sellers, they're still delusional. They're still pricing their games as if it's still COVID frenzy and they want premium top dollar for their machines. You're not going to get it. You're only going to get it on a handful of super rare machines. And we all know which games those are. But for everybody else out there, good luck trying to recoup your investment in pinball unless you have one of those super desirable machines. And people are reluctant to see how far down the price needs to go to move the item. And that's where we're at right now. And that's why the title of this show is so damn shocking that 999 people just had $3,000 in value erased from their Foo Fighters LE. Now, what does that mean for James Bond LEs? What does it mean for other Stern machines? I think everyone is saying loud and clear. We think the price of a new in box Stern LE should be $10,000. We think the price of a new in box Jersey Jack collector's edition should be no more than $12,500. I mean, even Guns N' Roses CE is now a $13,000 new in box game. That game used to sell for $20,000 at the height of its launch. $20,000 for a new in box GNR CE. Same exact game, 2023, November, $13,000. The market has slid way back down. So who's going to do it? Do you think anyone's going to do it? I think Stern has to be nervous. I mean, do you know Stern is calling up its distributors and telling them like, Jaws is coming. Don't worry, it's going to solve everything. And I'm telling you right now, I don't even care about Jaws LE anymore. I don't want to buy any Stern LEs at $13,000 because we all know the other thing they're going to do is this. They're going to make more versions of that game. They're going to make an anniversary edition of Jaws in 2025. So if you go buy this Jaws for $13,000, guess what? They're going to make a nicer version of the game like a year from now. And you know why we know this? Because look at what Stern's been doing. This is exactly what they're doing. They did it with Jurassic Park. They did it with Elvira. We know they're going to do it with Godzilla and we know they're going to do it with Jaws. It's just their new business model. They absolutely are just going to screw over everybody that is plunking down so much money. They want every single penny of the secondhand value of these machines. They want to capture that instantly on new in box sales. And guess what's going to happen? They're going to collapse their own market. They already have people. They already have. If you think this market is not collapsing, it is collapsing. I think there's some delusional people that are holding on because you and I have never seen this before. Has anyone lived through a period in pinball in which prices went through the roof on every single game and then they jacked up the number of LE machines across the board and the train is not going to stop people They moved into a much larger factory Think about this for a minute Stern has to make a lot more games to justify that factory, and I heard from a very reliable source, games are piling up at Stern Pinball in boxes. It's going to look like that scene from Indiana Hilton Jones and Raiders of the Lost Ark, you know, the military archives with all the boxes. That's what Stern Pinball is going to look like if every single person out there starts saying, hey, I'm not going to buy right now. I'm going to wait and see. Even distributors are not going to be able to take large allotments. Who's going to be writing checks for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars in inventory that is not going to move? And the problem now is they've all painted themselves into a corner. Stern and Jersey Jack, they've painted themselves into a corner because think about it now. If they reduce the prices of these LE machines, which they need to, Then they're going to have thousands of people who spent money at $13,000 who are going to feel ripped off and burned by them and are not going to want to buy from them again. It's really bad, people. I mean this. I know I sound a little bit like the sky is falling, but I never wanted to see pinball come to this. Years ago, I used to say that they could charge more for like a super premium edition machine. I've always believed this. There are super wealthy collectors out there and you can make Batman SLEs for people like that, but you got to be very careful about how you serve the high-end market. And they did it all wrong. Basically now, they're charging us those high-end prices. People remember a Stern LE with a topper is basically like $15,000. So they've basically done this. They've basically charged us what used to be the price on a very, very rare and limited and unique item. And now they're pricing every single horse as if they're selling you a unicorn. And they're not. A Batman SLE is kind of a unicorn, but a Foo Fighters LE is just a regular horse. There's a thousand of them out there in the world. And so that's what they've done. That's what they've done. And now it's got more and more people just saying, wait a minute, on all of these games, it's not just Stern. It's not just Jersey Jack, if you think Labyrinth is going to hold value at $10,600, you know it's not. And it has nothing to do with the game. It has nothing to do with the game. It has to do with the simple fact if everybody's slowing down their purchasing and everybody is waiting it out, then now we have the power to control the prices on these games and they're only going to go south. And if you don't run at stuff right away and you don't listen to the shills and you don't believe the hype and the FOMO, which is now dead, ladies and gentlemen, everything's going to go south instantly. It's happening in the auto industry. Go look at used car sales right now. They were crazy during COVID. I sold my Honda Civic Type R. I bought it for $35,000. I sold it three years later in the height of COVID for $37,000 back to the dealership. I recently got a Carvana appraisal of the car today. It's now worth $27,000, okay? But yet somehow in the world of pinball, it's so niche and it means so much to us emotionally, nobody is willing to accept the harsh reality. This industry needs to go through a correction and we're doing it, right? We're doing it. You and me are responsible for these prices sliding back down to earth. And look, as a consumer, it's a good thing. We don't wanna see any of these pinball companies go away, by the way. I mean, we love seeing all the variety, all the passion, all the personalities putting their heart and soul into these games. But the truth is they're going to go away unless they figure this thing out. And there's no more company vulnerable than Stern Pinball. They have the most at stake. They have hundreds of employees. They need to make hundreds of games a week. And if they continue doing it like this, it's all going to fail. And I'm not asking it to go back to like eight years ago, nine years ago. I'm just asking it to go back to where Godzilla was. because remember, Godzilla was right at the beginning of COVID. $10,500 for an LE. Your distributors are making about $1,500 to $2,000 on every one they sell. Everybody won. And if a game was good, it went up a little bit in value, right? You might have gained like $4,000 on your Godzilla value. But if a game wasn't great, right? It was just a mediocre LE machine like a Venom, right? That game not going to lose to It might only lose like or You know there was still some baked in value into everything And how many of you out there have told your wife oh the reason I into pinball is I not going to lose much money And I know a lot of guys that have been in this hobby for well over 10 years and you used to get your machines for a few hundred bucks. So a lot of those guys are looking at their collections and being like, well, I'm still up overall. But here's the problem. Even those old guys that are used to never losing money, they're addicted to pinball. They buy new machines every year. they buy about two to three new machines every year, and they are not used to losing three to $4,000 on every machine. If you went in on James Bond 60th for MSRP and on Foo Fighters and on Venom LE, if you just bought those three games from Stern Pinball, you lost more than like $12,000 in value in one year, simply buying three machines new in box. And you tell me this market is not stalling. You tell me it's not going to flatline the new inbox sales. You tell me distributors aren't nervous. You tell me these companies aren't being delusional. It's all happening right now. You know, and then the real question is going to be like, how is everybody going to dig themselves out of this? I think it's going to be the battleground of the next like six months to a year. I think smaller boutiques like Spooky and Barrels of Fun and Dutch Pinball, I think they're going to be fine because their operations aren't so big. We know Jersey Jack Pinball. I don't even know how to discuss Jersey Jack Pinball because they'd be out of business if it wasn't for the Abbas family. Nobody's buying Elton John. The game's flatlined in sales. It doesn't matter what they do. And the more they show gameplay of this game, it's making it worse because every time John Youssi the gameplay, there's no toys in the damn game. And then the damn LCD screen looks like a cheap screensaver. Like it's not going to work. There's nothing they're going to be able to do with gameplay footage to get people excited about this game. And everyone's in the same boat with Elton John. Can't wait to play one. I bet it's fun. I bet it's Jersey Jack's best shooting game to date, but nobody wants the theme and no one's going to plunk down $12,000 to $15,000 when you know you're going to lose $3,000 on the cardboard box. And that's my final point, ladies and gentlemen, this hobby is now making it so the cardboard box is a $3,000 item. I would like to know how much that cardboard box actually costs a company. What, like 50 bucks at most? Not even, probably $10 for the cardboard box. We are now losing $3,000 every time we open up some of these machines. It's not the way I wanted to start out on a Monday, but I saw this and I just feel bad. My condolences to each and every one of you who owns a Foo Fighter LE. If you just listened to Kaneda, I would have saved you money. And it's crazy, right? That's a new in box game. That means like an open up used Foo Fighters LE is now worth less than that. What? 9,500? 9,000? A $4,000 hit? I hope you guys play your machines. The only silver lining in all of this is you better play your games 4,000 times or else you're losing money. So for these collectors out there, I got a Foo Fighters LE. It's only got 120 plays. You know, if you only put a hundred plays on your Foo Fighters LE, then that's $30 per play. I hope you're enjoying the machine, everybody. Everybody, welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast. We're gonna be back more this week with more shows. Just wanted to stay focused on this topic for today. Have a great Monday. We'll be back and I wanna give an extra special shout out to Spooky Pinball for the care package they sent me. If you haven't seen my Saturday Morning Spectacular, go check it out. It's gonna be customer service like that and companies that actually care about the community. Again, if you have to decide where to spend your money, I'm going to spend my money on companies that care and I'm starting to feel like Stern and Jersey Jack I don't feel the love anymore like I used to from some of those companies everybody have a great day we'll talk to you soon Thank you.

_(Acquisition: groq_whisper, Enrichment: v3)_

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*Exported from Journalist Tool on 2026-04-13 | Item ID: 2bdf084e-d847-46df-a6c3-1a91cae0ee90*