Episode 935: "A Classic Kaneda Rant Show"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 20s·analyzed·Apr 10, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.035

TL;DR

Kaneda slams modern pinball pricing, theme selection, and innovation as unsustainable and out of touch with consumer demand.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a scathing critique of the modern pinball industry, arguing that manufacturers are pricing games unsustainably high ($7,000–$15,000+), selecting themes consumers don't want, and failing to innovate meaningfully. He contends that new in-box pinball can no longer survive on location play alone and must justify premium pricing through exceptional gameplay and cultural relevance—which current releases fail to deliver. Kaneda calls on manufacturers, distributors, and the community to recalibrate pricing, conduct market research, and stop chasing FOMO-driven purchases.

Key Claims

New in-box pinball must survive primarily through home sales, not location play, due to the decline of the arcade industry since the 1990s.
high confidence · Kaneda, opening argument about market fundamentals
Elton John Platinum Edition is severely overpriced relative to its gameplay complexity and feature set compared to Wizard of Oz ($6,500).
high confidence · Kaneda, direct pricing comparison and gameplay critique
ABBA and Elton John combined, despite selling 500 million+ albums collectively, will not sell 3,500 pinball machines total, demonstrating theme selection failure.
medium confidence · Kaneda, using album sales data as proxy for market demand
Jersey Jack Pinball has made successive theme missteps (Godfather, Toy Story 4) and buyers have lost 40% of new-in-box value on those titles.
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing secondary market depreciation
Turner Pinball is charging $6,994 for Ninja Eclipse Pro, which exceeds the street price of a Stern Pro ($6,500), while offering zero IP brand value.
high confidence · Kaneda, pricing and positioning critique of Turner Pinball
Between 2001–2016, no new-in-box pinball machine depreciated by $3,000–$7,000 within 1–2 years; this is a new phenomenon.
medium confidence · Kaneda, historical market comparison
Guns N' Roses (a 4-year-old game) finally received code updates after years of owner complaints, but Jersey Jack provided no special gratitude or compensation to existing owners.
high confidence · Kaneda, criticism of post-launch support responsiveness
Most new games should retail below $10,000; accessories like shooter knobs ($250) and flat plastics ($2,000) are grotesquely overpriced.
high confidence · Kaneda, prescriptive industry pricing recommendation
Foo Fighters LE with topper will depreciate from $15,000 MSRP to ~$10,000 on the secondary market within one year.

Notable Quotes

“Where are the great machines in the highest pinball prices in the history of pinball?”
Kaneda @ Opening — Thesis statement: premium pricing must be justified by exceptional game quality, which Kaneda believes is absent in 2024.
“It's a great game. It's severely overpriced. That's it. End of story.”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Succinct judgment on Elton John, acknowledging gameplay merit while condemning market positioning.
“For four years, they've been getting feedback on how to make this game better... and what did they do?”
Kaneda @ Mid-episode — Criticism of Jersey Jack's delayed code support for Guns N' Roses, highlighting post-launch negligence.
“Ninja Eclipse Pro and a Stern Pro is like Star Wars, Jaws, Stranger Things, James Bond... everything Stern will sell you is a licensed IP game. And what's the value of Ninja Eclipse? Zero.”
Kaneda @ Mid-to-late episode — Core indictment of Turner Pinball's original IP strategy relative to licensed competitor offerings.
“If you're going to charge people $15,000 that game needs to check those boxes. The thing is this, they're not.”
Kaneda @ Late episode — Articulation of expectation mismatch: premium pricing signals collectibility and permanence that modern games fail to deliver.
“You can get an incredibly crafted dining room table for the same price as a Foo Fighters topper!”
Kaneda @ Late episode — Reality check: contextualizes pinball accessory pricing as absurd compared to furniture-grade alternatives.
“New in box means nothing. Nothing.”
Kaneda @ Late episode — Paradigm shift statement: new-in-box status no longer confers value premium or collector appeal.
“I'm going to break you of your FOMO. I'm going to break you of your need to own it all.”
Kaneda — Direct call to community: challenge hype cycles and emotional spending patterns.

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyBarrels of Funcompany Turner Pinballcompany

Signals

$
market_signal: Kaneda argues new-in-box pinball pricing has reached unsustainable levels ($7,000–$15,000), with games depreciating 30–50% within 1–2 years, a phenomenon unprecedented in the 2001–2016 era.
high · Multiple references to $7,000 losses on Godfather LE, $15,000 Foo Fighters topper predictions, and historical claim that pre-2016 games retained value better
?
product_strategy: Manufacturers are systematically selecting themes based on internal preference rather than market demand research, resulting in low sales and full production runs not selling out.
high · ABBA not selling out 800 units despite 500M+ album sales; Labyrinth, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Looney Tunes at Spooky not selling out; Kaneda's call for manufacturers to conduct market research
?
product_concern: Guns N' Roses layout is fundamentally unplayable for competitive/serious players despite beautiful aesthetics; gameplay cannot be fixed retroactively by code updates.
high · Kaneda's direct statement: 'There's no way around the layout. Like you're just never gonna get people who love shooting pinball to ever consider the GNR layout to be a great layout.'
?
code_update: Jersey Jack Pinball delayed Guns N' Roses code updates for 4 years despite the game being a best-seller and receiving consistent owner feedback.
high · Kaneda's statement: 'For four years, they've been getting feedback on how to make this game better and what did they do... finally got around to paying attention'
~
sentiment_shift: Significant shift in community sentiment away from new-in-box collecting toward older, pre-owned machines due to depreciation risk and perceived value loss.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.082

0:00

Now the world don't move to the beat of just one drum. What might be right for you may not be right for some. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. Alright, I'm just going to go off on this episode because what I want to talk about right now is one simple thing. Where are the great machines in the highest pinball prices in the history of pinball? Where are the games that are going to take a spot in your home? Do me a favor. Go look around your game room. Look at your home. Look at your pinball machines. How many great machines do you have? Do you have a lot of room for more machines? What's going to take a spot in your home? That is what should be on the wall at every single C Bar), pinball company, what we're competing with. We're not competing with other companies. We're not competing for themes. We're not competing for light shows. We're not competing for anything other than a space in people's homes and a space on location. But for the most part, for new in box pinball to survive, it needs to find a spot in the homes of consumers around the world. I don't know where you guys are living, but But it's not like the arcade scene is anywhere near what it was in the 90's and you can't make thousands of pinball machines new in box and expect this industry to survive on location play alone. And even when I went to go play Looney Tunes on location, you're never really going to get the best pinball experience on location. The reason why I love playing on location nowadays is because new in box pinball is just stupidly priced. In a world in which it's so expensive, it's going to take a really great game for you to put it in your home and for you to spend the money on it. So let's talk about what's going on in the pinball world right now. Where are the great games? Where are the great games in pinball right now? We are in 2024. What is the game everybody is talking about? What is the game that everyone is so excited about? What is the game that everybody is clamoring to get? We are now into April of 2024 and I just posed that question. Are we playing the best pinball we've seen in years? Are we seeing incredible pinball innovation like we haven't seen before? Is anyone raising the roof? Is anyone raising the bar? Is anyone developing games based on AAA themes that you really can't wait to get? No! They're not! I'm still living in this like world of pinball where everything around the corner is the best thing ever, right? We're waiting for Back to the Future. We're waiting for Harry Potter. We're waiting for Matrix. We're waiting for this. We're waiting for that and the thing is this half of those won't even happen half of those will not come out half of them won't be great and I want to talk about the here and the now because as I look at this pinball landscape and all of these companies Stern Jersey Jack, Chicago Gaming,Spooky Pinball, Barrels of Fun, CGC,Multimorphic,Turner Pinball,American Pinball,We've got all these companies trying to make pinball machines and why is it that right now nobody's got the game that's the talk of the town? Elton John's not the talk of the town. Yeah, it's a great game. It's severely overpriced. That's it. End of story. There's nothing else to say about Elton John. It's a great game. And I'll just say, that's the only reason why I'm saying that I'm not a fan of the game. It's severely, and I don't mean just by a little bit, it's severely overpriced. And it's coming out from a company that had two flop games in a row where if you bought a Toy Story 4 or a Godfather, you've lost like 40% of the new in box price on those games. Guys, let me just tell you right now, you are not gonna see Guns N' Roses prices go up because Jersey Jack Pinball finally finishes the code after four years of the game being out. Just think about that for a minute. For four years, they've been getting feedback on how to make this game better and what did they do. Did they continue to work on the game? It was their best selling game of all time. And what did they do for owners of that game All these players turned out to be losers trying the best way to play PinballSinging במ� with but, the bottom line is there's a challenge here. IfTime vs Pinballотьels is now absolute garbage because it's made in a community of players there why the heck would Pinball Laink do this shit in your Felixnly MotionableChecklist sometimes theAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA ave any more of that in the sans pad duraaply? Successfully to the level of hard dangplain cargo maybe zafolkny Tour Adep couple ps The game is a garbage. The game plays like underwater after you've had the game on for 30 minutes. So no, I'm not going to thank you Jersey Jack that you finally got around after four years of a game being out, you finally got around to paying attention to the people who spent a lot of money on it. AMEN. Thank you! See if you have a video with more money on it! Because nowadays, like a Guns N Roses LE is like a 7 thousand dollar game, right? And there's 5 thousand of them out there in the world at 7 thousand dollars a pop. Is it a good buy now? Sure! It's a great buy now because it's 5 thousand dollars less than Elton John Platinum. The new pricing model, stupid, doesn't work. So, Elton John is not the answer about the game we're all talking about now. It's still a beautiful game, severely overpriced. Guns and Roses, it's never gonna have a second life. And you all know the real reason why, right? It's not just the multiballs. And I love GNR as a band, but there's no way around the layout. Like you're just never gonna get people who love shooting pinball to ever consider the GNR layout to be a great layout. Like nothing is ever gonna change that. It's a beautiful game. It's really cool what Eric did. I love the concert in a The game is a game of the concert experience, but the actual gameplay will never be great. The Elton John gameplay is incredible. It's the best playing Jersey Jack game of all time. And it's got one third of what Wizard of Oz has in it. And Wizard of Oz was $6500 bucks. Elton John CE is more is We didn just wake up yesterday And so Jersey Jack if they have the matrix I hope so I hope they bring it out sometime in the next few months There not going to be this second run on Elton John machines It just not going to happen The theme isn what people really want And that where that at Right We not going to see people running by ABBA right now ABBA just got released the pinball brothers The only gonna make 800 and they're not even gonna sell all 800 and that just goes to show you where the state of pinball is right now. You could take a musical act like Abba and Elton John combined. Those two musical acts have sold more than 500 million albums and collectively they won't even be able to sell together 3500 pinball machines. They won't be able to do it and that is Ladies and gentlemen, why theme matters so much in pinball. We need to stop making these themes that people don't really want. They're making themes for themselves. They're not making themes for what the pinball buying demographic wants. And why is it so freaking hard to understand what the pinball buying demographic wants? No, they don't really want labyrinth. And if I was over there at Barrels of Fun and you're telling me, We're gonna pick a theme that the pinball buying demographic wants and Labyrinth didn't even sell out. Like that's it and we're only gonna make 1100 of a licensed themed game and if we get the theme right it's gonna sell out instantly and instead it doesn't. It's not because of the price people, it's not. If the theme was better and that company put what they put into Labyrinth into a better theme they would have sold every one. There's a reason why Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Looney Tunes didn't sell out. It's because again, Spooky, I love them as a company, but they're making games for themselves. These are titles they want to make. It's not titles the pinball buying demographic wants. And how long do we have to see these companies just make the biggest mistakes ever when they decide on the theme? I mean, think about it for a minute. How does anybody over at Aimtron and Mukesh make Barrios Barbecue Challenge After making games for 6 years American Pinball has been studying the pinball market and you can green light a game like Barrios Barbecue Challenge in 2024 and actually get approval from the bean counters to make the freaking game and now what? The game is a colossal disaster. Nobody's buying it. Nobody bought Galactic Tank Force. And every time I see the crew over there, all smiles, wearing like Galactic Tank Force sweatshirts, I would fire everybody over there that's making these decisions because they have driven this company over the edge, off the rails, and there seemingly is no accountability. And American Pinball is already talking about their next titles? Like I don't know what industry you work in, but I know in my industry, if you have failure after failure after failure of ideas, you get fired. But in pinball, you can have a series of boneheaded moves and still survive. Like Jersey Jack, I love Jack Guarnari, but he's the reason why they made Godfather and Toy Story 4. And as long as Jack is picking the titles, he's so far from what people really want that I hope they get things back on the rails. I hope it's the Matrix and I hope it's not the Muppets people because we need a theme that is take my money now from all of these companies, not just Jersey Jack, everybody. We need a shot of pinball adrenaline, a shot to the heart of it. You know like that scene in Pulp Fiction where she overdoses and just that adrenaline shot right to the heart. What will that pinball game be in 2024? You think it's gonna be John Wick? Do you think Stern's gonna come out with a John Wick game that's gonna make us believe again at these prices? Believe again in innovation? Believe again? No, it's gonna look like every other Stern machine with not much in it, people. Get ready. I'm telling you right now, I think John Wick is gonna be big trouble for Stern. I think it might even struggle to be better than Venom. I'm just saying it because look, it doesn't have that nostalgia. Look, it's a good movie, but it's not where the sweet spot is. You need to have stuff that people want to have in their house permanently. Comparatively, this is a PINT BUNNY afect. The next game is over. People are not losing $500, they're losing $4,000. My boy Derek lost $7,000 on a Godfather LE. $7,000. You think he's excited to buy the next new in box jersey Jack? No, he wants to go nowhere near Elton John because he's tired. And I think a lot of you are tired. And I think we still love this hobby. Our money is waiting. And we want to spend it on something epic. But where is that epic magical pin? Is it going to be Alice in Wonderland from Dutch Pinball X? X going to give it to you? Is X going to give us all the failed J-pop projects? I don't like this move. I think Melvin might learn a really harsh lesson. There is not the enthusiasm for Terms for J-POP disaster fight against the way there is in the Netherlands. It's like, only in the Netherlands did these guys spend so many years fixing that broken magic girl. That takes some damn dedication. They feel like these games have some manifest destiny where we have to get these JPOP games working into the world. I think they're making a huge gamble. I not even going to do that I going to go get some real IPs and make them limited and make them special and design them from the ground up because if all you gonna do is remake J designs I don think you gonna see that much commercial success and I hope Melvin gives me a call I hope Chris Turner gives me a call. Ninja Eclipse, he's taking money on Ninja Eclipse today. He sent out an email being like order banks are open on a game in which a company has not proven they know how to put a single game in a box and they're asking for nonrefundable deposits immediately. They're also boasting that this Ninja Eclipse game is less than a Stern Pro. It is $6,994. What Chris Turner doesn't know is the street price on a Stern pro, the price that everybody pays is actually $6500. He also is not taking into account that that doesn't matter because you got Ninja Eclipse Pro and a Stern Pro is like Star Wars, Jaws, Stranger Things, James Bond, Foo Fighters, like everything Stern will sell you is a licensed IP game that's worth a lot of money. And what's the value of Ninja Eclipse? Zero. Zero. And I don't understand this. If you're gonna go through all of the effort to make a pinball company and you've been studying this hobby. See, here's what I think has happened. I think Turner Pinball is basically leftover deep root people and you've got Quinn Johnson over there, the storyteller, who's probably convinced them if we just tell the story, if we make an original IP story and we tell it the right way, The way they will come. No Quinn, no Chris, that's not what works in pinball. I'm not buying children's books for Killian for $19. You're trying to sell a $7,000 product. Nobody wants your original storytelling in pinball format. That's not what's going to work. For $7,000 today I can go buy, if I'm going to buy an original IP game, I can go buy a dialed in LE for $7,000. The game is still a Pat Lawler game that's loaded with Jersey Jack toys and 27 inch LCD screen and has all the great coding in the world versus Ninja Eclipse. The thing is this, this is the harsh reality everyone's going to realize in 2024. New in box means nothing. Nothing. We're looking at these games now like never before. I have this much money and you think it's worth $15,000. The moment you think something is worth $15,000 that is basically telegraphing this is one of the greatest machines of all time. This is highly collectible. This is going to hold value. This is one of the most expensive pinball machines ever made. If you're going to charge people $15,000 that game needs to check those boxes. The thing is this, they're not. A Foo Fighter LE with a topper is now a $15,000 game. Enjoy spending that much money on that game because it will be selling on the second hand market with a topper in a year for $10,000. And I don't know who amongst us thinks that this hobby is going to be able to float those kinds of financial losses. And as I've said before people, not in the history of pinball could you ever have lost $5,000 in like a year or two on a game. Name me one game between the years of like 2001 and 2016. Name me one pinball machine where if you bought it new in box, new in box, You could potentially lose $3,000 to $7,000 on that game. Even MustangLEs, WWELE, a game we all ragged on, that LE of that game has not lost $3,000 in value. So welcome to the brave new pinball world. Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Nobody I'm not gonna buy your new in box crap. I'm simply gonna go buy older games that are well maintained that have low plays on them For much less money that have much more in them that have much better themes. I mean, it is so easy because all pinball, there's no difference. It's not like every year pinball is getting better. What's happened is this. They've taken stuff out of all of these games. I mean, stand over a jaws pro and tell me you see a $7,000 game there. Just stand over it and tell me you see $7,000. You know now that I'm buying a house and I'm starting to furniture shop people, I can't tell you how embarrassed I am for us. For us! You can get an incredibly crafted dining room table for the same price as a Foo Fighters topper! You can go get a couch for the same price as a Foo Fighters topper! We're talking plastic people! Molded plastic probably made in China, it most likely cost Stern Very funny I say super funny I sure am Too funny I bet you guysあの you are moistur more a better Not that you're a bearded크 Gospel بدئ Bour Truth. I wasyas Hopefully in the Liddy Stop doing the support of Flay Neet on Switch,Iiani Doldawandski the way and upcoming inW ihrer eiginat9 as part for Wall wamie dislmake At bathtime at the McConnell specifically at theulator of Twitter odes alguien has said you do not deliver the and at Modercla t made you suck if you going to go lie to your customers and do not deliver your product of the word coming, and then Ippoe may ofement transformed or sipe itmuśšóňľk HouňšėţšňţŒŏŁšťŕ� albeit too wedding is Ross Ts�k 밖에자� ginôŃ� 더� Draňká makes the owners wait for years to code update àňžekŋţţŽŇţŉŹźſŠłŅőŋ 입니다