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Episode 652: "Stern Says No More New Games"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 14s·analyzed·Feb 25, 2022
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Stern announces only 2 games in 2022, creating market opportunity window for competitors.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Gary Stern's announcement that Stern Pinball will release only two cornerstone games in 2022 instead of the traditional three, eliminating the April release slot. This creates a six-month window of opportunity for competitors like Jersey Jack Pinball (launching Toy Story at Texas Pinball Festival) while exposing timing failures at American Pinball and other manufacturers. The host argues this will compress secondary market prices and shift production schedules industry-wide.

Key Claims

  • Stern Pinball has a backlog of nearly 10,000 games to fulfill; one distributor alone has over 700 games on backlog.

    high confidence · Kaneda citing direct conversation with a distributor

  • Godzilla Premium Edition had a 9-10 month wait time for delivery.

    high confidence · Kaneda's direct market observation

  • Stern is raising Premium Edition prices from approximately $7,000-$8,000 to $9,000 across all future releases.

    medium confidence · Kaneda stating 'I believe' based on Gary Stern's announcement

  • Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story is Pat Lawlor's final game design and will either exceed expectations or be disappointing with no middleground.

    medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction/speculation based on Pat Lawlor's career trajectory

  • Dennis Nordman's American Pinball game (Austin Powers) won't be ready until August, forcing it to compete directly with George Gomez's James Bond or Keith Elwin's Jaws from Stern.

    medium confidence · Kaneda citing 'what I'm hearing' from sources

  • Jersey Jack Pinball will rerun The Wizard of Oz production.

    high confidence · Kaneda stating this was mentioned but not detailed on previous show

  • Keith Elwin's next project is rumored to be Jaws.

    medium confidence · Kaneda stating 'rumored to be'

  • James Bond is in development at Stern and potentially could be the August release.

    medium confidence · Kaneda speculating about production pipeline

  • Stern Venom is based on the comic book version, not associated with the new Venom movie, allowing flexible release timing.

    medium confidence · Kaneda citing 'very good sources' about Brian Eddy artwork

  • Toy Story should debut at Texas Pinball Festival in April 2022.

Notable Quotes

  • “Whenever the biggest pinball company in the world that has like 80 to 90% of the pinball market makes a statement like Gary Stern did, it's going to have ramifications for this entire hobby in 2022.”

    Kaneda @ early — Establishes Stern's market dominance and the strategic importance of the announcement

  • “I said this buying a Limited Edition or Premium Edition over sticker price is the dumbest thing you could ever do because Stern Pinball was always going to make more.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Direct criticism of collector FOMO buying and prediction of secondary market depreciation

  • “This is the moment for Jersey Jack Pinball if this game is great and if the playfield issues are no longer an issue this is perfect timing for Jersey Jack Pinball.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Identifies Toy Story launch as a critical competitive opportunity for JJP

  • “If I walked into that boardroom and I said, guys, let's charge 17 five. They'll still sell out. They will absolutely sell out because there's nothing else available.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Suggests JJP could exploit Stern's absence with aggressive premium pricing

  • “The biggest failure in pinball is American Pinball's timing because I am hearing that Dennis Nordman's game will be ready wait for it in August.”

    Kaneda @ mid — Harsh critique of American Pinball's inability to capitalize on the Stern gap

  • “How is it that Stern can R&D a game in a year and get it to market but American Pinball takes almost two years to get a Dennis Nordman game to market?”

    Kaneda @ mid — Questions American Pinball's operational efficiency and manufacturing capability

  • “It is hard to make pinball. It is hard to secure all the parts. It's hard to get labor to understand how to make these things.”

    Kaneda @ late — Acknowledges structural challenges facing smaller manufacturers

  • “If you're asking me for 15 grand and all you do is push a machine into the room the way they did Cactus Canyon, I wasn't excited during that Cactus Canyon reveal.”

Entities

Gary SternpersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyPat LawlorpersonAmerican PinballcompanyDennis NordmanpersonKeith Elwinperson

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Limited Edition and Premium Edition secondary market prices expected to drop significantly due to Stern's announcement of new release halt and price increases; collector FOMO purchasing will deflate

    high · Kaneda discusses people paying over sticker ($8,000-$10,000) for Limited/Premium editions and states this will cause price drops as Stern's backlog clears

  • ?

    supply_chain_signal: Stern Pinball has approximately 10,000 machines in backlog; individual distributor carries 700+ unit backlog; wait times for Premium editions reached 9-10 months

    high · Kaneda cites conversation with unnamed distributor and specific wait time data for Godzilla Premium Edition

  • ?

    product_strategy: Stern Pinball raising Premium Edition pricing to $9,000 across all future releases, reflecting market conditions and backlog reduction strategy

    medium · Kaneda states 'Every single Stern Premium Edition now will be $9,000' based on Gary Stern's announcement

  • ?

    business_signal: Six-month release gap from Stern creates market opportunity window for competitors; Jersey Jack Pinball positioned to capture high-end collector demand with Toy Story

    high · Kaneda extensively discusses serendipitous timing of Toy Story at Texas Pinball Festival and suggests JJP could charge $17,500 and still sell out

  • ?

    operational_signal: American Pinball's inability to deliver Dennis Nordman game in April represents significant operational failure; game taking nearly 2 years to develop vs Stern's 1-year turnaround

    high · Kaneda questions how Stern delivers in 1 year while American Pinball takes 2 years even on original IP without licensing hurdles

Topics

Stern Pinball's production halt and release schedule restructuringprimarySecondary market pricing and Limited Edition depreciationprimaryCompetitive opportunities for non-Stern manufacturers during Stern's release gapprimaryJersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story as critical competitive momentprimaryAmerican Pinball's manufacturing and timing challengesprimaryManufacturer production capacity constraints across the industrysecondaryCollector psychology and FOMO-driven purchasing behaviorsecondaryGame reveal and marketing strategy effectivenesssecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda is critical of Stern's decision and American Pinball's failure to capitalize, disappointed about content creation challenges, but optimistic about Jersey Jack Pinball's opportunity. He's also philosophically skeptical about collector culture and limited edition inflation. Respectful and somber tone regarding recent industry deaths.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.067

Do you really wanna, do you really wanna taste it? Music Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. The war is going on in the Ukraine. Prices of stocks are plummeting. Gas prices are going through the ceiling. What will happen in the pinball world in 2022? Will any of these outside forces impact this hobby? Well, we did get the biggest piece of news this week from Gary Stern and he has told us Stern Pinball's plans for 2022. And whenever the biggest pinball company in the world that has like 80 to 90% of the pinball market makes a statement like Gary did, it's going to have ramifications for this entire hobby in 2022. We're going to talk about what he said. But first, A moment of silence for Barry O. Barry, rest in peace. We're all going to miss you and we're sad that we're not going to see your latest efforts over at American Pinball. You know, life is really short everybody. We've lost Barry O. We lost Lyman Sheets and I think it's another lesson for each and every one of us that we really need to really celebrate every day above ground. And these pinball machines that we talk about, they're not that important. We all know that. You know that. I know that. And I think I know most of you out there who listen and most of us have pretty balanced lives and we're into this because it's just fun to be into this. So what let's talk about Gary Stern news. Okay, so here's what Gary Stern said. Gary Stern has said that there will be only two cornerstone releases from Stern Pinball in 2022. Now I didn't even realize that Stern has a cornerstone schedule of releases. And it usually is this there is a new game in January. The game was released in April and August. It makes total sense. I think last year it was Led Zeppelin, Mandalorian and Godzilla. Those were the three cornerstone games. Now I was told that the next game was going to be Venom by Stern Pinball and we were going to see it in April. But now Gary has officially said there will be no new game in April from Stern Pinball. Now this move makes total sense because the backlog on orders over at Sternpinball is in the, I believe it's almost like 10,000 games they have to make just to fulfill the backlog of orders. I was talking to just one distributor, one, and you know him well, I'm not going to name his name, and he said his backlog is over 700 games. And so Sternpinball can't release another game and make people wait for their Mandalorian's and theirGodzilla's and their Elvira's and their Batman's and their and their and their you could keep going on and on and on of some of these machines people have been waiting months for. Like if you ordered a Godzilla premium, the way to get it was like 9 to 10 months. So this is huge news. Let's talk about what I think this is going to create in the pinball hobby. I think first and foremost, if you bought a premium or a pro at a premium price, which means if you paid over sticker for a pro or premium machine, because there was no inventory at distributors, you're about to lose a lot of money. And I said this buying a pro or premium over sticker price is the dumbest thing you could ever do because Stern Pinball was always going to make more. And I know people get impatient, but we've seen on pin side, some of the prices people are asking for Knapp Arcade, David David Van Es, BASIClively Tinting, Pinball For premiums. Right? Over $10,000 for premiums. $8,000 to $9,000 for some of these pro machines. Why? Stern is going to make more pros for like $6,600 bucks and more premiums now for like $9,000. Now that's the other thing that's kind of crazy. Stern is going to change the price, I believe, of all games moving forward to reflect the new prices. So every single Stern premium now will be $9,000. Wow. Just think about that. But the good news is this. You're not going to have to The Week in Pinball, Johnny Pneumonic, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, transliteregonartwork panel in backbox that is backlit during playelectronic Game of Thrones unint I love it. I just don't think it would translate very well into pinball. I couldn't really tell you like what would the toys be like would it be the stage of the karate tournament? Would it be the Cobra Kai dojo? I don't know. I don't really want a Cobra Kai pinball machine and I don't think it's Cobra Kai. My very good sources have said it is a comic book version of Venom with Brian Eddy and zombie Eddy on artwork. And so if you think about that if it's a comic book version of Venom, it's not The game is associated with the new venom movie They could probably release this game anytime they want And also venom is making his way into the Spider sort of multiverse So I think delaying venom is actually a smart move Now this also means for the first time since we been covering Stern Pinball it is going to shift everything down the pipeline which means there going to be more time to R and D these games So will that mean we going to see more put into the next Keith Elwin which is rumored to be jaws and also what happens now to James Bond See here the part that I think is going to happen I don think venom will be the August release I think if James Bond is ready to go or jaws You know, who are you going to give seniority to come August, right? Will it be George Gomez. Will it be Keith Elwin? Because that's it like that august release becomes the big selling pin of the year for stern because that's the pin they sell during the holiday season and may traditionally given that august block to Keith Elwin. So really interesting time. So also when I heard this news, I was kind of bummed out because I don't want to only talk about rush as being The actual name of this game is Sturn. In the case of the game, what we're going to get is Rush Pinball and then some older games. Now, it's great for all of you guys who have ordered machines, but from a content creation standpoint, it sucks that we're not going to have a new Sturn machine. Because that's what really keeps this hobby interesting. Every three to four months Sturn has a new machine. Because the rest of the industry has shown us that they can barely get new games on the line. Now here's the other thing that's crazy. This window now is also a window of opportunity for every single other pinball manufacturer to take advantage of the fact that Stern Pinball will not be releasing another game in April. Now here is the saddest part. I think only one company out there is going to take advantage of this window and it couldn't be better timing for the company called Jersey Jack Pinball which has Toy Story right around the corner. Tpf on the line in April think about this serendipitous timing if you're JJP stern Pinball as announced we're not coming out with a new game in April no one's going to be ordering more stern machines because of the backlog which means all of the money will flow to JJP if this game is great and if the playfield issues are no longer an issue this is perfect timing for JJP if you're over there you've got to be like this is the moment now the other thing I would do if I was I'm just going to say this from a marketing standpoint. If I walked into that boardroom and I said, guys, what are we pricing the collector's edition at? And let's say they tell me 15 grand. I mean it when I say it, guys, let's charge 17 five. They'll still sell out. They will absolutely sell out because there's nothing else available. And Stern's saying that they're not bringing a new game to market is a golden opportunity for Jersey Jack to pretty much charge whatever they want for this new game, because they know that all of their All of these rich collectors and you know you're one of them, you know you're gonna wanna get something new and shiny out of a box. And there's nothing that Stern's gonna put new and shiny in a box for almost six months, so you're gonna want this game. And from what I'm hearing, Toy Story should be a game that is Pat Lawler's last, it should be his swan song game, and I expect big things of Toy Story. I have not seen it, I don't know what's in it, but I really think that this is gonna be a game that Pat Lawler These sequence for our show is now so fun that everyone is going to want to go out with a bang or he is going to go out with a fizzle it is going to be one or the other. Right? This thing is either going to exceed our expectations or it is going to be disappointing. I really think there is no middleground when it comes to JJP launches but I am rooting for them because this is a dream theme. Now, what about everybody else? The biggest failure in pinball is American Pinball's timing because I am hearing that Dennis Nordman's game will be ready wait for it in August. You're legitimately have nothing new to sell people when they're saying your biggest competitor Stern is saying there is a six month window in which we will not be selling anything new and you have nothing new to sell people. What horrible timing for AP and once again this company just doesn't have it. They just don't have their ducks in a row. And then you're gonna launch an original IP Dennis Nordman game in the same month that Stern is going to be I'm going to come back with a bang. Like do you really want to put Dennis Nordman's game up against George Gomez James Bond or Keith Elwin's Jaws? Like that's horrible timing for you. And so if you're American Pinball, how do you not go in there and be like can we just finish this game up in the next couple months and get it on the line? Like what else do we have to do to finish this game? And it was over a year ago in which Dennis Nordman joined this company. So how is it that Stern can R&D a game in a year and get it to market but american pinball takes almost two years to get a dennis nordman game to market and it's an original IP game guys it's not like they have to get assets and permission you don't have to submit any of it to anyone for approval which means an original IP game should be the easiest thing to make and here it is american pinball is not going to take advantage of this sales opportunity we're also looking at chicago gaming company maybe right if they can get cactus Knapp Arcade David David Van Es BASICematically PINBALL PINBALL PINBALL PINBALL PINBALL PINBALL CWC not just cactus canyon I think they should do more runs of Monster Bash and Medieval Madness and Attack from Mars And if they were smart they should be looking at the royal edition and how successful that was And they should make royal editions of Monster bash and of Attack from Mars and make it for the super high end collector and watch every single one sell out Did you see the jerky who asking for a Medieval Madness royal edition Seriously, if you ask $29,000 for a game that was easy to get at $10,000, you should be banned from Pinside for life. Alright, so Stern has got this window of opportunity. Is Haggis gonna walk through this window of opportunity? I mean, there's still no update in the Haggis forum. I mean, it's kind of funny reading the thread on Haggis Pinball. Nobody wants to see a picture of production. Nobody wants to ask for anything. It's everyone joking about snakes. Let me tell you, I think it's not going to get any easier on Damien and company getting these games to market. It is hard to make pinball. It is hard to secure all the parts. It's hard to get labor to understand how to make these things. It's hard to make hundreds of pinball machines and fulfill your customers expectations in a short window. And so if you're Damien, I mean, you've got nonrefundable deposits, so he doesn't need to sell more fathoms. He needs to figure out how to make this company profitable. A big challenge and that is the hill I think they could die on. We'll see what happens. So who else is out there right? Dutch Pinball is still making Lebouskis it feels like forever. You've got the Pinball Brothers with the Alien LVs should be shipping soon. We've got the Spanish company with the Hoops game that is pretty interesting. But who else is out there? Spooky Pinball, they've got nothing new to sell you. They're sluggishly making these games. Like I'm not seeing a ton of Halloween and Ultraman unboxings every week. So I think they're also Mike Michael Wade Mark Ward Audrey The most successful Jersey Jack Pinball Machine of all time. I know that some of you out there think it's a kiddie theme. It's not. Pixar movies are made for adults that also appeal to children. Also, if you sit down and watch Toy Story and don't enjoy it, I mean this when I say it, you're dead inside. It is one of the greatest movies of all time. The entire franchise, the Rod and Nocturnal and 2021 revolutionary This is stupid. I'm not buying Toy Story. Well, you don't seem like you'd be a lot of fun at the bar because every grown adult I know loves Toy Story. Okay, so then we've also got P3 Multimorphic. Let's not forget this weird Al's Museum of Hilarity. This is a great opportunity for Jerry to sell this platform, especially as Stern goes on a new release hiatus. Now, will Jerry be able to make the game? That is the big issue. He is going to have a great opportunity to get a lot of orders and get games into people's homes. He needs to hire like three times the amount of people to make these games. If I'm Jerry, this is your moment. This is your moment to go all in to invest everything you have in manufacturing efficiencies. You've got to fulfill orders, Jerry. You can't be making like five a week. This is your moment where you need to The only way this platform can survive if there are thousands at least a thousand people with P3 Multimorphics because if you have a user base of like a thousand people owning P3s then every time you have a new game you're gonna have a thousand people that want it that's how it works when you have a platform like this with a modular kit system and so this is the moment for Jerry will he be able to do it And I think he's not going to be able to put hundreds of machines in people's homes every month during this six month window of opportunity as Stern doesn't make any new games. So a little bit of mixed emotions from me on this whole thing. Like I'm bummed out that we're not going to get a new stern. I think, you know, going to T P F now is all gonna be about toy story. Now, if toy story does not make its way to T P F there pretty much is almost Tpf no reason to go and I mean this and I love going to shows and I guess I shouldn say that because the whole reason we go to shows is to hang out with each other I actually take that back I will be going to Tpf to hang out with you guys Now I just think Tpf will be so much better if we get a new game release at Tpf I wish like Ed and Kim could go to Jjp and say say can we officially communicate that a new game is gonna be at Tpf this year because I think that drives a lot of attendance and I know that JJ P I think is gonna try to surprise us the way they did with dialed in like they gonna usher these games in and pull the sheets off of them and that fine you know and then I we know Jersey Jack Pinball is gonna have one of the greatest launch videos for Toy Story like Ken is not stupid Ken Cromwell The team over there, they have successfully each new game. They've worked with this great video production company to launch their games better than every other pinball company. And for those of you out there who think it doesn't matter, it matters how you show up on day one. It matters. And it's important to put your best foot forward because you want to get people excited. And especially at these price points, you need to get people excited because if you're asking me for 15 grand and all All you do is push a machine into the room the way they did Cactus Canyon. I wasn't excited during that Cactus Canyon reveal. It didn't make me want to order the game. And I mean this when I say it. The lackluster reveal of the game carried over to my experience playing it because you had this lackluster reveal. Then we all like moseyed on over to just four games on the floor. And it was really lackluster. Like, I don't know. I kind of felt like, you know, it's Cactus Canyon. It doesn't shoot that well. It doesn't do anything amazing. New it's a typical fan layout game. I mean, there's a reason why Cactus Canyon isn't one of the most popular games of all time and it impacted my desire to buy one. It did, it really did. All right, so we shall see, like we've only got a month to go. So we've only got a month to go. So I'm really looking forward to TPF. I'm looking forward to going there. I think, you know, prices are going to start to come down now, and it's not just because of what Stern said. Look at the economy, look at what's going on in the world for a lot of us out there. If you have any money invested in cryptocurrency, Knapp, studiocut buena 15 nacional point of en fairness the I am at an early age, tH Crispami ling zona using a satisf Budd credаниеье I am at any time right every thing I think the way we live binder I were some of you. I think some of you are sitting on games that you know are not worth anywhere near what the market will pay for it right now. And I do implore some of you out there. Let them go. Sell them at these high prices and laugh all the way to the bank as idiots are paying 18 grand for a Stranger Things LE. Like if you have an Iron Maiden new in box LE 25 grand sell it seriously. So there is no difference between A lot of us with all of these LEs and LEs everywhere a thousand now and this many LEs and SLEs it doesn't matter we all know they're not really special. If you just want to enjoy pinball and enjoy the experience of pinball there's no reason to own any LE. It's amazing that Stern and everybody else has cajoled all of us into placing value on what's value list. Like we are placing value on a plaque and some armor and some stickers and that's it that's the only difference there's no difference in gameplay in any of these so think about it I do implore all of you out there with collections like I have 30 machines I have 40 machines I have 80 machines why why do you need 80 pinball machines I don't think you do I don't think that gives you enjoyment more than 20 would and let's face it there's only like 20 pinball machines that are worth owning I mean if you have the top 20 pinball machines I have a hard time believing you're not happy So those people that have got like a hundred, five hundred, you know, there are people with like a thousand, like it's crazy. It's absolutely crazy. And I'm not hating like, God bless. If you have that much money to invest in pinball, like more power to you. Anyway, everybody, thank you again for your support. It's always a pleasure doing these shows on a weekly basis. I will be back with more news. Oh, and one last thing I didn't mention on my last show, Jersey Jack Pinball will be rerunning Wizard of Oz. So if you want a Wizard of Oz, do not pay over for one. And that means they're going to Here onionspan mundo.com will appear in front of you. Hello and welcome to another episode of McLive, new and valuableraits informational production要 LET personally agradeunda for tool dokument session. This video's 75 forte火 Haju Jakobzaki & Pajamo B Martinez-F MuslimsGood. I appreciate their time and kindéndissalvos the Loud gaining. Grasprung Iacknopal很多 так스밍 gigabytes 감사합니다Eh Also Your correspondents gra Füre Aloha secret friends from the guardian of the play tässä Inc Plato O 넣은 숍 locktellng کر vinyl aging, Klepto武 솔직히りました é scr unsettó 제명한 Consumer 한국어 안 Against스 contagious 사진한ingly

medium confidence · Kaneda describing serendipitous timing with TPF dates

Kaneda @ late — Criticizes Chicago Gaming Company's game reveal and marketing execution

  • “There's only like 20 pinball machines that are worth owning. I mean if you have the top 20 pinball machines I have a hard time believing you're not happy.”

    Kaneda @ very_late — Philosophical critique of unlimited collecting and limited edition inflation

  • “It's amazing that Stern and everybody else has cajoled all of us into placing value on what's valueless.”

    Kaneda @ very_late — Meta-commentary on the limited edition/SLE marketing strategy

  • George Gomez
    person
    Chicago Gaming Companycompany
    Spooky Pinballcompany
    Multimorphiccompany
    Pinball Brotherscompany
    Dutch Pinballcompany
    Texas Pinball Festivalevent
    Toy Storygame
    Kanedaperson
    Ken Cromwellperson
    Godzillagame
    James Bondgame
    Jawsgame
    Venomgame
    The Wizard of Ozgame
    Barry Operson
    Lyman Sheetsperson
    Cactus Canyongame
  • ?

    machine_intel: Multiple Stern games in development (James Bond, Jaws) competing for August release slot; Keith Elwin's project rumored as Jaws, George Gomez's as James Bond

    medium · Kaneda speculates about August release seniority between George Gomez and Keith Elwin designs

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Kaneda expresses frustration about lack of new Stern releases dampening content creation opportunities; notes content ecosystem relies on regular new machine launches

    high · Kaneda states 'from a content creation standpoint, it sucks that we're not going to have a new Stern machine' and notes 'That's what really keeps this hobby interesting'

  • ?

    product_launch: Texas Pinball Festival (April 2022) positioned as critical launch venue for Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story; game release timing tied to show visibility and hype generation

    high · Kaneda describes 'serendipitous timing' and states TPF 'will be so much better if we get a new game release at Texas Pinball Festival this year'

  • ?

    community_signal: Host critical of unlimited collecting behavior and limited edition inflation; argues only ~20 machines worth owning and questions value of collector plaques/decals

    high · Kaneda's extended commentary: 'There's only like 20 pinball machines that are worth owning' and 'It's amazing that Stern has cajoled all of us into placing value on what's valueless'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Game reveal execution and marketing strategy significantly impacts buyer interest and perceived value; poor reveals (e.g., Cactus Canyon) carry negative impact into actual gameplay experience

    medium · Kaneda discusses how lackluster Cactus Canyon reveal negatively affected his perception of gameplay and desire to purchase

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Pat Lawlor designing Toy Story as final game for Jersey Jack Pinball; represents significant designer milestone and potential career capstone project

    medium · Kaneda states 'Toy Story should be a game that is Pat Lawlor's last, it should be his swan song game'

  • ?

    product_concern: Jersey Jack Pinball's persistent playfield issues remain concern for competitive positioning despite Toy Story opportunity; host notes success contingent on resolving this problem

    medium · Kaneda states opportunity success depends 'if the playfield issues are no longer an issue this is perfect timing for Jersey Jack Pinball'