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Kaneda critiques Stern's unsustainable pricing model and speculates on Keith Elwin leaving for Jersey Jack.
Keith Elwin's contract with Stern might be coming up and he could go elsewhere, possibly Jersey Jack
low confidence · Kaneda explicitly frames this as unverified rumor: 'I heard a rumor and this is so rumor that Keith Elwin's contract with Stern might be coming up'
Jack Danger is the best designer in pinball right now, above Keith Elwin
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion after Jack Danger joins the stream: 'I think Jack Danger is the best designer in pinball right now. I do. And I will fight you if you disagree. I think Jack Danger is above Keith Elwin.'
King Kong LE machines are going for $9,000 and will easily reach that price by year-end
high confidence · Direct market observation: 'Kong LE...I think Kong LE is going to be easily a $9,000 game by the end of the year'
Stern built their factory based on a formula of games at $5k-$7.5k with 500 LE units and better theme variety
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Stern's business model: 'the formula that worked was games were more affordable, games had better themes and less had 500 units'
Stern is now using a formula of three cornerstone games plus anniversary editions with 1,000 LE units at unsustainable prices
high confidence · Direct critique of current Stern strategy: 'They've got this formula of like three cornerstones a year plus anniversary editions plus remastered games a thousand of every LE'
Steve Richie's next Jersey Jack game will not be Matrix, Top Gun, Sonic, Super Mario Bros, or a movie from the 80s/90s
medium confidence · Kaneda provides hints but keeps details private: 'It's not Matrix. It's not Top Gun. It's not Sonic the Hedgehog. It's not Super Mario Bros. It's not a movie from the 80s or the 90s'
Evil Dead is selling for $15,000 on the secondary market
high confidence · Community chat observation: 'Evil Dead is now selling for $15,000. That's amazing.'
90% of pinball buyers and owners are not on Pinside forums
“I think Jack Danger is the best designer in pinball right now. I do. And I will fight you if you disagree. I think Jack Danger is above Keith Elwin.”
Kaneda @ ~25:00 — Major shift in Kaneda's ranking of top pinball designers; publicly elevates Jack Danger above previously cited top designers
“The formula that worked was games were more affordable, games had better themes and less had 500 units...but not where they are now.”
Kaneda @ ~62:00 — Core critique of Stern's business model evolution; identifies pricing and production scale as fundamental problems
“I think he's handsomely paid. Now Todd said something interesting. JJP should pay Keith a million per year. I think he's worth that. I do. I think it's criminal.”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Discussion of designer compensation; suggests top designers are undercompensated relative to game sales potential
“Predator is DOA. Cuphead, Cuphead nowhere to be found. Venom less for $8,500. Potter AI disaster. Kong is whatever. Jaws 50th is dope.”
Sad Boy (donor) @ ~28:00 — Community sentiment on recent releases; indicates market softening on several recent Stern titles
“I think Stern's in a little bit of trouble...They've built this entire company around a process and around a formula and they forgot the formula that made them successful.”
Kaneda @ ~62:00 — Direct assessment of Stern's operational and strategic vulnerability
“The Kong gong shot is not one of it—it's every time you hit the gong and King Kong, your game is losing $15. That's what that shot is.”
Kaneda @ ~48:00 — Mechanical/economic critique of King Kong's design; suggests poor playfield shot value distribution
“It only works if it's like take my money now dream theme which they're usually not. And then everyone every game starting to look the same.”
Kaneda @ ~65:00 — Identifies lack of compelling themes and visual uniformity as current Stern weakness
business_signal: Stern scaled production based on frenzy demand but current formula (three cornerstones, 1,000 LE units, high pricing) is unsustainable
high · Kaneda: 'they scaled up to a size now where they need to try to like be successful now with a new version of that formula which I think is dangerous' and 'It only works if it's like take my money now dream theme which they're usually not'
sentiment_shift: Shift in community rankings elevating Jack Danger above previously established top designers (Elwin, Richie)
medium · Kaneda: 'I think Jack Danger is the best designer in pinball right now...I think Jack Danger is above Keith Elwin'
competitive_signal: Jersey Jack positioned as alternative destination for top talent (Keith Elwin speculation); JJP platform perceived as superior
medium · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack platform is the nicest' and 'If [Keith Elwin] were to go somewhere, it would be Jersey Jack Pinball'
design_philosophy: King Kong criticized for recycled art assets, poor playfield economics (gong shot loses money), and lack of originality
high · Kaneda: 'recycling the art across all three models...no assets, no Empire State Building...it's the modern-day Avengers' and 'every time you hit the gong and King Kong, your game is losing $15'
design_philosophy: Stern has lost the formula that made them successful: affordable pricing, better theme variety, limited LE runs (500 units)
high · Kaneda: 'the formula that made Stern really successful 500LE's of really great themes where there was more variety...they forgot the formula that made them successful'
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medium confidence · Kaneda's estimate based on show attendance: 'I would say 90% of pinball buyers and owners are not on Pinside. They're not. They just are not on Pinside.'
“Eric Miner is not as good as Keith Elwin. I don't think anybody would argue that. I don't think Eric would say he's as good as Keith Elwin. He's not.”
Kaneda @ ~17:00 — Comparative designer evaluation; suggests Eric Miner's Harry Potter design not at elite level despite commercial success
market_signal: Secondary market depreciation on recent Stern releases (Venom, Predator, Cuphead supply issues)
high · Donor Sad Boy: 'Predator is DOA. Cuphead, Cuphead nowhere to be found. Venom less for $8,500'
personnel_signal: Keith Elwin potentially seeking to leave Stern for Jersey Jack Pinball
low · Unverified rumor from Kaneda: 'I am hearing a rumor...that Keith Elwin's contract with Stern might be coming up and he might be looking to go elsewhere' — explicitly framed as speculation and caution advised
market_signal: Three-tier LE/Premium/Pro pricing model with 1,000-unit LE runs is perceived as unsustainable and causing secondary market weakness
high · Kong LE at $9,000; Venom LE at $8,500; Predator characterized as 'DOA'; Kaneda: 'prices had to increase but not where they are now'
announcement: Star Wars Pinball launching early September with Episodes 3, 4, 5, 6
medium · Kaneda: 'Do we think we're going to see it early September? That's what I think. I think it's going to be episode 3, four, and three, four, four, five, and six. New Hope, Empire, and Return of the Jedi'
rumor_hype: Upcoming Steve Richie Jersey Jack game is not Matrix, Top Gun, Sonic, Super Mario Bros, or 80s/90s movie
medium · Kaneda teases upcoming title: 'It's not Matrix. It's not Top Gun. It's not Sonic the Hedgehog. It's not Super Mario Bros. It's not a movie from the 80s or the 90s' and admits worry about what it might be