Episode 948: "Is Stern Burning the Wick at Both Ends?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·18m 3s·analyzed·May 6, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.025

TL;DR

Stern underinvesting in design at inflated prices; Deep Root needs transparency; Elton John hype overblown.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Stern Pinball upcoming John Wick machine by Tim Elliot and criticizes Stern for not increasing designer budgets despite raising game prices to $7k-$15k, arguing this creates underwhelming games and inventory collapse. He also offers unsolicited advice to Deep Root Pinball's Damien Harden to come clean about financial troubles, and dismisses hype around Jersey Jack's Elton John as temporary.

Key Claims

Tim Elliot is the youngest ever inductee into the Pinball Hall of Fame at 31 years old
medium confidence · Kaneda, discussing Tim Elliot's achievements and pedigree as John Wick designer
Stern's designer budgets have not increased proportionally with game prices rising to $7k-$15k
high confidence · Kaneda's central thesis on Stern's pricing strategy and manufacturing economics
Thousands of new-in-box Stern games are piling up unsold with dealers and distributors
medium confidence · Kaneda citing rumors he believes to be true about inventory crisis at Stern
Used Stern games significantly undercut new-in-box pricing (e.g., Venom LE $13k new vs $8.5k opened)
high confidence · Kaneda providing specific secondary market examples
Deep Root Pinball's Fathom resale value is plummeting
medium confidence · Kaneda analyzing Deep Root's pricing options and market conditions
Jersey Jack's Elton John is the first fun-to-play Jersey Jack game in ten years
medium confidence · Kaneda's critical opinion on Jersey Jack's historical design quality
John Wick videos have already been created and will leak today via dealer/distributor sharing
medium confidence · Kaneda predicting imminent leaks based on historical pattern from Jaws reveal
Stern simplified computing and circuit control components without increasing mechanical engineering investment
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Stern's efficiency moves

Notable Quotes

“Stern Pinball is almost setting up all of its designers to somewhat deliver underwhelming games”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Core thesis connecting designer budget constraints to game quality expectations
“at this price point, seven to thirteen thousand dollars, I don't think Stern pinball has increased the budget of their machines enough so these designers can actually put enough into these games to justify games costing that much”
Kaneda @ ~10:00 — Explicit statement of the value-for-money problem in Stern's current lineup
“thousands of new in box games are piling up and the inventory with dealers and distros are piling up and it's about to collapse, people”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Warning of systemic inventory crisis in the market
“A bash toy should not open up another bash toy. It doesn't make sense.”
Kaneda @ ~4:30 — Specific critique of game design laziness in Jaws and Walking Dead toys/mechanics
“How do you sell a new in box Venom LE? The map pricing on it is 13 grand. How do you sell that game when an opened one is $8,500?”
Kaneda @ ~15:30 — Concrete example of secondary market underselling new retail
“I would come clean. I would turn on the camera... ask for forgiveness... lay out for everybody what the only way forward is”
Kaneda @ ~30:00 — Direct advice to Damien Harden on crisis management and transparency
“it's so funny to me. It's like ten years of Jersey Jack Pinball, and they finally make a game that's fun to play”
Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Damning long-term critique of Jersey Jack's design quality before Elton John
“for $12,000 to $15,000, it better be a dream theme... And how many of you are experiencing a dream theme experience?”
Kaneda @ ~37:00 — Skepticism that Elton John justifies premium pricing despite strong gameplay

Entities

Tim ElliotpersonStern PinballcompanyJohn Wick (pinball machine)gameDeep Root PinballcompanyDamien HardenpersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyElton John (pinball machine)gameJaws (pinball machine)gameThe Walking Dead (pinball machine)gameVenom (pinball machine)game

Signals

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product_strategy: Stern raising retail prices to $7k-$15k without increasing designer budgets, creating perceived value gap and market friction
high · Kaneda's central thesis comparing $4k historical budgets to current $13k pricing; specific Venom LE pricing example ($13k MAP vs $8.5k used)
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supply_chain_signal: Thousands of new-in-box Stern games accumulating unsold at dealers and distributors; inventory collapse imminent
medium · Kaneda cites rumors he believes true; specific example of Venom LE new-in-box unable to compete with used units
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market_signal: Used game prices significantly undercutting new retail MAP, making new inventory unsaleable; Venom LE $13k→$8.5k example
high · Kaneda analyzing specific pricing gaps and dealer inventory concerns
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business_signal: Deep Root Pinball facing existential financial crisis with unsold Fathom inventory, collapsing resale value, angry customers, and leadership evasiveness
high · Kaneda's extended discussion of Damien Harden's situation, mentions of Flinibus community pressure, Marty Robbins evasiveness
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design_philosophy: Criticism of recent Stern games (Jaws, Walking Dead) for lazy toy design that doesn't logically match theme or create authentic play experience
high · Detailed critique: orca 'looks like flat plastic not boat,' shark fin mech lacks kinetic energy, barn bash opening zombie door illogical
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Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.054

0:00

Pumvum and cop slecks may be a buffet bust out Oregon Busin or ocus condom roep Fraud on BB De Doreen on labyrinth

0:12

But careful The We still got pinball machines in front of windows. We've got this Elton John owners club turning into a tribe There's like 30 rocket men who think this game is gonna go up in value and we've got a new pinball machine this week That is the most exciting thing I can possibly say whenever there's a new machine, especially from Stern Pinball There is a level of excitement in the air. There is hype. There is excitement. There is drama. There is expectations There is all of this speculating going on. What will be the inaugural machine from Mr. Elliot Iceman? He's an engineer. Is he gonna load this game with mechanisms? Is it gonna have a great layout? It's gonna have three ramps. We know it's gonna have toys. Is it gonna have all the assets from the John Wick movies? There's like four of them. There's gonna be a fifth one. How is he going to tackle this? How is he gonna make his name for himself in the Pinball Legacy Hall of Fame? The guy's already in the Pinball Hall of Fame, did you know this? He's the youngest inductee into the Pinball Hall of Fame ever. He was like 31 years old when that happened because of all the mechanical stuff he put into games and we've never even said his name. It's like this guy made the hyperdrive in Star Wars. He's made a lot of other mechanisms in pinball that we love. He made Rush Pinball. And look, this is going to be really exciting because in less than 48 hours, we are going to get a new Sternmachine. Now, here's the other thing that's not so exciting. In the next 48 hours, it is still just going to be a Sternmachine. I feel like every time we have these lofty expectations of what Stern's going to do next, are they going to innovate? Are they going to put sculpts? Are they going to make stuff magical? Are they gonna create that world under glass we're all clamoring for? And it's Stern, you know, when I look down at jaws, the real missed opportunity to create that world under glass, like it's not there, people. The orca is terrible. It doesn't look like a boat. It looks like a flat piece of plastic. That shark fin mech is terrible. It's not exciting to shoot. There's no kinetic energy. It doesn't make any sense. You bash a boat. Explain to me how this makes sense. Why do you bash a boat to reveal jaws? Like why? Like why are you hitting the boat? That doesn't make any sense. A bash toy should not open up another bash toy. It doesn't make any sense. The same way like in The WalkingDead, when you bash the barn, why does it open up doors to bash a big zombie head? None of that makes sense. The scale doesn't make sense. It's lazy creativity. So I'm hoping Mr. Elliot Eisman brings some new creativity to pinball that he thinks about the toys and the mechs in a unique way and he brings us a new legacy in the world of pinball. Here's my topic on today's episode of Canadian Pinball Podcast. First and foremost, if you have pinball machines in front of windows or mirrors or anything like that, directly in front of those windows, get them out of there. vetoed sophomory� dd Meliload upcoming 2018 project. It's like a six feet tall piece of furniture. Would you put an armoire in front of a window? It's the same thing with pinball. This is going to be my legacy. I am going to travel around the world and remove every single pinball machine from a window that I can possibly do. It is like me doing surgery on the room and the energy and the harmony of that room. And if you know who you are, trust me, just move it and realize how much better your life will be. But the real Now this is a topic I want to talk about Two things I want to talk about whether or not Stern Pinball is burning the wick from both ends And here what I mean by that Here what I mean by that I think Stern Pinball is almost setting up all of its designers to somewhat deliver underwhelming games And what I mean by that is at this price point seven to thirteen thousand dollars I don think Stern pinball has increased the bomb of their machines enough so these designers can actually put enough into these games to justify games costing that much so we gonna talk about that and then I also want to talk about what would you do if you were Damien if you were Damien Harden what would you do if your pinball The dream, stars in your eyes pinball company that you created fell on hard times like this. What would you do? I'm gonna tell you what I would do, but I want each and every one of us to close our eyes and imagine we were over there in Australia and we promised people all these pinball machines and we sort of ran out of money. What would you do if you were in his Australian shoes? All right, let's talk about this burning the wick from both ends because we're about to see this game tomorrow. Design Section Luke scène, E gemechnet at Bayho,

5:28

Thrift, peardey thlights c Ex- Integrations e in уль website Now, for those of you who assume that the bill of materials that a designer has to make a game is somewhere around the ballpark of like $4,000 now when they were designing games with the $4,000 bomb and then they would release a game to the world in which the LE was like 8,500 think about the way we all responded to those games we looked at all of those games with much more open arms we didn't get so angry nobody And I feel like those designers were able to make games that were in line with what pinball costs. And here's where I think it doesn't work anymore. Because imagine if you're Elliott and you're designing John Wick. Your bomb on John Wick is probably still basically what the bomb was when Elliott machines were Hell it so, 응益 Grace cript. GrillificationsМ 안녕하세요 I'm making the great ali Jordan 맛ie The all these designers to release games that when we look at them we're not gonna look at them the same way there's not going to be enough in those games to ever justify what these games are costing us remember a pro is now seven grand for a pro Ya yo stakeholders are NOW maximum so I know they've simplified the computing system and the node boards, but I feel like they've made efficiencies without increasing the mechanical engineering in the games. That is why I think something needs to give in pinball. If Stern wants to keep charging these prices that fine That on them But they need to give their designers more money to make the games more magical Now who amongst us who amongst us would have a problem with that They making so much money The problem now is and I hear the rumors and I think they true that thousands of new in box games are piling up and the inventory with dealers and distros are piling up and it about to collapse people It like an avalanche right It like enough pressures building up where there are thousands of new in box games with no homes and you keep raising the prices and the used market is making it impossible for dealers to sell any of these new in box games I mean how do you sell a new in box Venom LE Think about it The map pricing on it is 13 grand How do you sell that game when an opened one is $8,500? And I was going over and looking at some of the major dealers and distros. They have so much inventory on games that are worth so much less the second that cardboard box is removed. And I think that's going to create a lot of trouble. And I just want to see Stern stop being so greedy. You're making more money than you ever did before. But I do think much like an earthquake, the pressure is building and it is building over at Stern because you can't have thousands of unsold new in box games and you can't justify the prices of these games unless you give your designers more money and allow them to create more magic in their machines. So I'm super excited to see John Wick. We're gonna talk a lot about it tomorrow. I'm guessing we're gonna see like some crappy cell phone leaks of the game today. Because here's what happened with Jaws. You know those videos, you know, that introduce us to the game, they're already done. So normally what happens is this. Those videos get shared with like dealers or distros today. People see them and then they screen grab those videos. That's how all the Jaws stuff leaked. So I fully expect at some point today, we are going to get a leak of John Wick Pinball. All right, what would you do, ladies and gentlemen, if you were Damien Harden, you started a company like four or five years ago, you made one Kelps game, and then you thought you could just scale up and you scaled up. You got the factory, you got the second title, you got orders on the game, you got deposits that were all nonrefundable. What would you do if you were him right now? This is the thing I've been thinking about. I mean, he's waking up every day. He's a family man. He's got angry customers. They're lynching him on Pinside every single day. Now he's got Flinibus on the case. Once Flinibus is coming after you, it's over. Your thread will never be the same. He's got Marty Robbins just ignoring the entire damn thing. Marty keeps doing podcasts and pretends like none of this is happening. The entire house is on fire and Marty's over there laughing and insulting other pinball podcasters that want to have debates about price and value. How dare you Marty? Get your games in boxes and get them to your paying customers. Nobody wants to hear your cheeky laugh brother. It's kind of creepy. Grow up, man up and take responsibility for the company that has been ripping people off for the last year and a half, two years. Oh, Kaneda, no personal insults, but I'm allowed to go at these companies because nobody else will and they know that. So here's the thing I would do if I was Damian. I would just come clean and tell the truth. I would say, hey, look, this is the current situation of this company. If we continue to operate the way we're going, we're going to be out of business. He's got to be more transparent about what he actually needs. Does he need to raise the price of the game? We saw Dutch Pinball do that with the big Lebowski. That game went from being what? Like 8500 to 13,500? They had to do that to figure a way out of the hole. Would that help them out? I don't think they could do that because the Fathom Resale value is plummeting. So there's no way you could charge more. I mean, they tried to charge more with this like, or living edition of Centaur. I mean, remember that was $17,500 and there's some people that paid in full for that game. And here's the thing. I just think if I were Damien, I know that I could keep up the lie. I know that I could keep trying to rob Peter to pay Paul. I know I could draw this thing out for a longer period of time, but I wouldn't do it. And I know it's hard to stop and say, hey, look, this is what we were doing and it failed. And the only way forward is to either come clean and be 100% transparent with everybody. The truth will always set you free. We have an issues and crisis department at my company. Commentaries Tromias Sierra McCall Rob Meier David cha Scott McClure Peagan Johns Driveels Platty forsk The big question is why are you making a video about me It a shame it a shame It a shame that I not on the video It a shame that I not on the video I not on the video I on the video because it the truth I not on the video because it the truth I not on the video because it the truth I not on the video because it the truth If I were Damien I would wake up one day and just turn on the camera and be honest with us for once. What I mean by that too, is you don't have to go into all the details of the financials, but stop hiding. You know what I want to see him do? I want to see him ask for forgiveness. I want to see him not just ask for forgiveness. I want to see the pain. I want to see some of the suffering. I want to see some of the anguish and I want to see him ask for forgiveness. We bit off more than we could chew and we're sorry. And this is the only way out, right? Because we all know like recapitalizing and trying to find investors is never going to work. I know this is the hardest thing to do is to ask for forgiveness, lay out for everybody what the only way forward is. Part of that is to also lay out for people the reality that there might not be a way forward, that we might have to start winding down. And I know that's the most difficult thing to do because nobody ever wants to accept defeat. The thing about the world of business and manufacturing, if the numbers don't work, you're just never going to get out of the hole. So if I were Damien, that's what I would do. I would come clean. I would turn on the camera more, At Pirate or Panette casting the Thank you for watching. I am waiting on this baby any day now, any minute now. Knowing my luck, this baby is going to pop out right when Stern shows John Wick Pinball. More shows coming this week. This is kind of like my therapy for all the anxiety happening in this family right now. We'll talk to you soon. Stern give your designers more money. Damien come clean. And please Elton John owners, we get it. You like your game. This is the only game where people are never going to get tired of it. Come on. You're going to get bored of this game. You know you are. I know it's exciting that there's finally a Jersey Jack game that shoots well, that actually makes you want to play it. I mean, think about it. It's so funny to me. It's like ten years of Jersey Jack Pinball, and they finally make a game that's fun to play. Finally. No mushy flippers, no over-the-top multi-ball, no bad design. They finally make a game that's really fun to shoot and people are acting like it's the second coming of pinball and these things are never leaving people's game rooms. Trust me. Jersey Jack is going to be making these Elton Johns for the next like six months. There are going to be so many Elton Johns out there and they're not all going to be bolted to the floor. And after you get tired of the six songs that have energy and collecting his glasses and his sequence shirts, you're gonna move on to something with more storyline and more narrative. Kenaida loves the game, but come on, gang! Like, it's not the greatest game ever. It's not even based on a theme you even wanted. And so just wake up a little bit. I know you're in the honeymoon phase, but man, for $12,000 to $15,000, it better be a dream theme. And how many of you are experiencing a dream theme experience? And if that game, if it shot the way it shootss and that game was Top Gun or Karate Kid or Die Hard, yeah, but it's Elton freaking John people. Come on, we're going to get those greater themes from Jersey Jack soon, but just not yet. I'm happy you're having a good time, but everybody come on, come on. We're waiting for a AAA theme that shoots like Elton John. That's what everybody's waiting for. Everybody have a great Monday. We'll be back soon with more Canadian Pinball Podcast. Thank you for the support.