The One About BallPin and Kaneda

The Hardy Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·15m 58s·analyzed·Aug 31, 2020

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Hardy Pinball investigates mysterious insider 'Ball Pin' and claims about JJP/Stern game delays.

Summary

A detailed forensic analysis of a Pinside user named 'Ball Pin' who emerged in mid-July, posted limited content while appearing new to pinball, yet claimed inside industry information about JJP's Guns N' Roses delay and Stern's next game announcement. The podcast host investigates Ball Pin's post history for inconsistencies—discovering contradictions between novice-level questions and access to confidential information—while documenting Ball Pin's claim that JJP shelved Guns N' Roses due to political climate concerns, instead choosing Toy Story as 'safer.'

Key Claims

Ball Pin states JJP will not release Guns N' Roses anytime soon and will instead release Led Zeppelin next.
medium confidence · Ball Pin on Pinside, 4 days before episode recording; later clarified as speculation/wink emoji
Stern announced their next game theme on Friday (the day after Ball Pin predicted it).
high confidence · Ball Pin prediction 5 days prior, confirmed as occurring; theme later identified as Avengers
JJP chose Toy Story over Guns N' Roses because it is 'safer' in the current political climate.
medium confidence · Ball Pin on Pinside thread; clarified in direct message to Hardy Pinball host that Guns N' Roses was delayed due to political climate concerns
Ball Pin claims to be 'well connected to the pinball world' despite joining Pinside on July 16 with only 58 posts.
medium confidence · Ball Pin's own statement in Pinside defense post; contradicted by posting history showing novice-level questions
CGC (Chicago Gaming Company) is facing delays with parts coming in from China.
medium confidence · Ball Pin statement in direct message to Hardy Pinball host
Cactus Canyon is not the next game for CGC.
medium confidence · Ball Pin post in Cactus Canyon remake thread on Pinside
Pirates pinball stopped production due to high cost and amount of problems with the game.
low confidence · Ball Pin post on Pinside; unverified claim without external confirmation
Ball Pin is allegedly the true source of information being attributed to Kaneda, with Kaneda copying his posts.
low confidence · Ball Pin's accusation on Pinside; disputed and unverifiable; Ball Pin later admits not knowing who Kaneda is

Notable Quotes

“So we go from being very new to the hobby, not knowing about certain titles, to all of a sudden having inside information.”
Hardy Pinball host@ 5:13 — Core tension in the investigation—highlighting the inconsistency in Ball Pin's claimed expertise vs. demonstrated knowledge level
“He states that Guns N' Roses isn't the next pin for JJP. He has two credible sources, and both gave him the same info. And the reason behind Guns N' Roses not being released is pathetic and makes him angry.”
Hardy Pinball host (summarizing Ball Pin)@ 5:00 — First major claim linking JJP's Guns N' Roses to an unspecified reason later revealed as political climate concerns
“Face the Music is all I can say.”
Ball Pin on Pinside@ 8:13 — Cryptic hint about Stern's next game; host interprets as possible reference to Bill & Ted 3 theme, later contradicted by Avengers announcement
“Someone well connected to the pinball world was going to be an asset to this site decided to post two tidbits of information as a starter decided on Tuesday to let you guys know Stern is announcing something on Friday basically as an introduction to give myself some validity as I am new.”
Ball Pin on Pinside@ 8:52 — Ball Pin's explanation for why he disclosed Stern announcement—attempting to establish credibility before sharing JJP intel
“I don't like to spoil these companies' secrets. I'm a pinball fan first, and the reason I posted is because I was outraged about Guns and Roses pin being pushed back due to current political climate.”
Ball Pin (direct message to Hardy Pinball host)@ 11:19 — Directly reveals the motivation and alleged reason for JJP's Guns N' Roses delay—political climate concerns

Entities

Ball PinpersonKanedapersonHardy Pinball hostpersonJersey Jack Pinball (JJP)companyStern PinballcompanyChicago Gaming Company (CGC)companyDeep Root Pinballcompany

Signals

?
leak_detection: Ball Pin emerged as new Pinside user claiming insider knowledge of Stern and JJP game announcements and delays; predicted Stern Friday announcement (confirmed), but broader claims (JJP Guns N' Roses delay, Led Zeppelin next, Toy Story as alternative) remain unverified
high · Ball Pin's timeline of posts on Pinside spanning July 16 to recording date; direct message to Hardy host claiming political climate motivated his disclosure
?
rumor_hype: Speculation about JJP's production pipeline: Guns N' Roses allegedly delayed/shelved, Toy Story positioned as alternative, Led Zeppelin speculated as next release; no manufacturer confirmation
low · Ball Pin posts on Pinside; direct message to Hardy host; wink emoji suggests speculation rather than certainty
?
announcement: Stern announced new game with Avengers theme on Friday; Ball Pin successfully predicted announcement date but cryptic hint about 'Face the Music' did not match actual theme
high · Ball Pin predicted Stern announcement Friday; Hardy host confirmed announcement occurred; theme identified as Avengers in podcast
?
industry_signal: Ball Pin claims JJP losing market share while Stern, CGC, and Deep Root release titles faster; positioned as consequence of Guns N' Roses delay
medium · Ball Pin direct message: 'They are losing market share because of this delay. Other companies like Stern and maybe even Deep Root... They are facing delays with parts coming in from China.'
?
supply_chain_signal: Ball Pin claims CGC facing delays with parts coming in from China; contributes to competitive disadvantage vs. other manufacturers

Topics

Insider information leaks and sourcing credibilityprimaryJJP Guns N' Roses delay and political climate concernsprimaryStern Avengers announcement and prediction accuracyprimaryPinside forum community culture and reception of new usersprimaryCompetitive dynamics between manufacturers (Stern, JJP, CGC, Deep Root)secondarySupply chain constraints in pinball manufacturing (China parts delays)secondaryIdentity verification and alt-account speculation (Ball Pin vs. Kaneda)secondaryPinball theme licensing and IP strategy (political sensitivity)secondary

Sentiment

mixed(-0.15)— Hardy Pinball host is analytically skeptical and somewhat critical of Ball Pin's contradictions while remaining open to the possibility of legitimate insider access. Critical of Pinside community toxicity. Expresses frustration with the situation but maintains investigative tone. Ball Pin emerges as frustrated with community reception and defensive about credibility. JJP framed negatively for delayed releases and perceived market share loss.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.048

what's up guys and welcome to the Hardy Pinball Podcast episode 6 the one about Ball Pin and Kaneda. For those of you that do not know, over the past few days, well actually it instigated on Friday, I want to say it was like three days ago, where Stern unveiled their next game theme at least. And then there was a big ordeal evidently via Pinside on who dispersed this information first, whether it be Kaneda or this person on Pinside known as Ball Pin. Now so it was all going on, I didn't get the full gist of who said what first and stuff like that, so I decided to basically get on Pinside and do my own little investigation. All this information is solely based on Pinside alone. No outside sources are involved in the information that I am about to disperse to you. So this is what it is, guys. This person is titled Ball Pin, and he started on Pinside not too long ago, July 16th. The initials that he uses for his high scores are J-O-E, Joe. He's actually donated as of August 17th and he is verified on Pinside with a total of only 58 posts. His first post was 39 days ago on the Led Zeppelin versus Guns N' Roses and he states that he is new to pinball. Then days go by, 21 days ago he's on the Monster Bash thread. He wants to know how to play Monster Bash with two players. Now I thought that was kind of weird. I know he said that he was new to pinball and everything but I just thought you know, even new, you would know how to play two players on Monster Bash, but okay, anyway. So 12 to 13 days ago we have on the TMNT thread he has concerns of the playfield quality and tells people to stay away from Stern. Also 12 days ago he had posted in the dream themes thread. Now these are some of the themes that are dream themes to him: hockey theme, new World Cup soccer theme, Futurama, Beetlejuice, new Super Mario, Donkey Kong Country, new Back to the Future, Inspector Gadget, Coco the movie or just a Day of the Dead theme, Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse. Now going by just his dream themes we can all pretty much agree that the chances are this individual is in his mid to late 30s going by what I'm seeing here because some of these are right up my alley when it comes to a good theme for pinball, and that'd be Beetlejuice, Donkey Kong Country, and a new Back to the Future. And I think a new Super Mario would be great for locations. I think if you are someone that is wanting to get games on location, i.e. JJP, or even Deep Root, if they were able to acquire a Super Mario license, that is something that you would love to have in your lineup to get on locations because the old Gottlieb, everyone that's ever put one on location knows that it makes money, it does well, it gathers in the young crowd. But I digress. Moving on to 11 days ago he comments on Magic Girl and Pinball Circus and how he's never heard of a Popeye game and loves the look of it though. I'm like wow, okay. So that kind of gets a little more of a hint on his still new to the hobby of not knowing about a Popeye game, but he knows about Magic Girl and Pinball Circus, some very rare games. Interesting. 11 days ago also he posted in looking for Monster Bash in Ontario. So chances are that is where Joe lives is in Ontario, Canada. Nine days ago in the TMNT Hyperpin thread, he says that it's an okay theme and he gives the game around a 7-ish out of a possible 10. He also posted on the same day in the What Is For Sale In Michigan. He's asking for a Monster Bash in the Michigan thread. So I guess Michigan is the next possible closest route to him when it comes to traveling to North America, if he in fact lives in Ontario. Six days ago, the TMNT thread, more talk on the grannyart and the game being, eh. Six days ago, he posted in the Tesla Model 3, says that he has one and he wants to sell all the rest of his gas trucks or vehicles to get a Cybertruck. Now, this is where things start to pick up speed. Five days ago, in the Why You Should Wait for JJP's Guns N' Roses thread, he states that Guns N' Roses isn't the next pin for JJP. He has two credible sources, and both gave him the same info. And the reason behind Guns N' Roses not being released is pathetic and makes him angry. So we go from being very new to the hobby, not knowing about certain titles, to all of a sudden having inside information. You're new to Pinside. People can see that on every post that you make. So you have to know that a lot of people on Pinside are assholes. They just are. And it sucks that they're there for that purpose almost, it seems. And that deters away new people possibly like Ball Pin. So posting this, I believe he starts immediately getting people to start probably talking bad about him or whatever, like what does he know, you're new to this, you know, why should we trust you? I did not honestly read anybody else's response. This is me simply going by the history of this one individual. And on the same day he posted a reason why JJP is going for Toy Story. He says it's safer and that we should interpret that how we will. So he's telling us that Guns N' Roses is not going to be JJP's next title because they're doing Toy Story as it's safer. Curious on, like he says, we have to interpret that how we will, but I got a little bit more information that may kind of lean us towards why they're going for Toy Story first. That same day, he also states that Stern's next announcement will be this Friday. So, and as a lot of you already know, that came true. Stern did essentially announce their next theme on Friday. Then four days ago, a day later, he says, JJP won't release Guns N' Roses anytime soon. We will see if Led Zeppelin is the next pin. Wink. Also that same day in Keith Elwin's next game thread, that's when he discovers that Kaneda is talking about his supposed info. And then at that same day in time, speculation from Delt 31 is that he thinks that Ball Pin is more than likely Kaneda. Then Ball Pin also rebuttals that he doesn't even know who Kaneda is. So that was all as of four days ago. Now, this is where we start getting more information this also same day, as of four days ago. He states in the next Stern Pin form thread, he states that people should not listen to Kaneda, all the info he has is from me. He also states that no more info will be coming from him because he doesn't get the credit. A day later, he states that Queen as a game is wrong and starts saying more things about how Kaneda is a fraud. Same day, he says, Face the Music is all I can say. So, it seems to me at that time when he says Face the Music is all I have to say, now we all know by now that Bill and Ted 3 Face the Music was the title, and there was an assumption slash like people were rumoring that that might actually be Stern's next title was a Bill and Ted movie theme. So when have to say, I'm under the impression at that point in time that he thought it was going to be Bill and Ted. And then a day later, I think as of that day, early Friday, all he states in the same thread is Avengers in all capital letters. And later on that day, more words on him calling the next title and Kaneda copying him. And then he's also having to defend himself from a lot of people on there. And someone even asks, who are you? And like I said, people are asking that because no one knows who this person is. They're new to Pinside and yet they supposedly are calling these titles the way they are. And he says, someone well-connected to the pinball world was going to be an asset to this site, decided to post two tidbits of information as a starter. Decided on Tuesday to let you guys know Stern is announcing something on Friday, basically as an introduction to give myself some validity as I am new. But quickly the community spoke and based on the reactions and warm welcome, it seems like a place that doesn't appreciate exclusive, free, correct news. So with that being said, I'll no longer post inside information and pretend like I don't know anything. I never posted here before, never really read the forums, just got a firsthand experience on how new people are treated and it's toxic. So wish you all good luck. That same day he states that Pirates stop production due to high cost and the amount of problems with that game. Also that same day he posted in the Cactus Canyon remake thread that Cactus Canyon is not the next game for CGC and he will not state what game it is because it will screw over people selling their original. And honestly that is the last bit of information that we have from Ball Pin on Pinside at least. From my standpoint there are some inconsistencies to what he says. You go from someone newly supposedly to the hobby to knowing about two games in particular that are rare, being Pinball Circus and Magic Girl, but not knowing how to start two players on Monster Bash, to wanting to buy a Monster Bash and not knowing what Popeye is, then all of a sudden you're someone well-connected in the hobby. You can see why there's a little bit of a hmm, I'm looking at it and I'm like, as I'm gathering this data for you guys, I'm sitting here going, this doesn't really make any sense on what's going on here. So either one, there's lying going on, but which part of it is lying? Where he's getting his information from, that he's being well-connected, or is he lying on the fact that he's new to the hobby? I mean, people were speculating that this is just, you know, an avatar for Kaneda and it's actually him. As of right now, the only parallel I see between the two is that they are both Guns and Roses fans. Now, I've actually contacted Ball Pin, and I wanted to give you guys what his response to me was to give you a little bit more insight about this person. He states: I don't like to spoil these companies' secrets. I'm a pinball fan first, and the reason I posted is because I was outraged about Guns and Roses pin being pushed back due to current political climate. All right, so let me pause right there on his words. So when he says the word safer and he's also stating here due to the current political climate, that makes me wonder. It's not so much on hmm, I feel like I need to use my words carefully here as well. So I'm going to let you interpret that also in the current political climate they're choosing Toy Story to go first. So there you go. Back to his words: So I wanted people to speak out and voice their opinion about how silly that is, so that JJP can see no one really cares about the current political climate in regards to pinball. We just want the game. So as a pinball fan first, I wanted JJP to hear the voices and hopefully change their mind on the release. Now, obviously, I'm new, no cred. I dropped the Stern tidbit to give myself some credibility. So there was a lot of backlash, some people piggybacking and claiming the news as their own. So it was just a bit of an ugly scenario and the reason I released the info got lost. I'm just outraged about Guns N' Roses being delayed, and I think we should focus on that and let JJP know we are ready with our wallets open. They are also losing market share because of this delay. Other companies like Stern and maybe even Deep Root, I know nothing about Deep Root, and I know CGC is working super hard to get the next pin out. They are facing delays with parts coming in from China. They are taking the market share. There could be four pins out before JJP's next pin, all because of potential lost sales due to political climate. I think not releasing a pin is hurting them more, but that's where I'm at. I want to see JJP succeed. I want JJP to see people are excited and want them to release today. I did say I hope I'm wrong and that JJP changes their mind. That was the goal all along, to get conversation going and have them change their mind. So maybe on your YouTube channel, talk about how JJP needs to release this title and what it can mean for the company. While everyone else is releasing titles, they are falling behind. They need a fire lit under their ass. As for future inside information, if someone else out here outrages me, I'll spill the beans. But these companies know what they are doing. So that is what I've got as of just recently from the Pinside user known as Ball Pin. As I stated at the beginning of this podcast, this is strictly going by Pinside data alone. No other outside sources or messages are in regards to Ball Pin. Everything that I have told you is all on Pinside for the public. In regards to people releasing information about the pinball hobby in general, whether it be classified or non-classified, for me talking about the certain things or giving out information that I get, I have no problems releasing my sources, guys. I don't care if I'm the first person to get stuff out to you and demand that it be claimed that you got it from me or whatever. For those of you out there that do have information that you would like to get out to the public, but either one, you don't have the means to do so, or two, you would rather it be anonymous but still would like the word to get out, by all means, hit me up at hardypinball at gmail.com. But if you want to get the credit for it, then I'll be more than willing to give that to you. I think this is going to wrap up this episode. I've got a feeling that I'm probably going to have to do another episode or two in the next day or so, depending on what Stern decides to do. So we're going to wrap this up right here. I've got to do a lot of video editing for at least two or three different videos. I don't know where I'm going to get the time to do all this and live life, so content is on the way guys. We've got a busy month ahead of us. Until next time, peace out.