Journalist Tool

Kineticist

  • HDashboard
  • IItems
  • ↓Ingest
  • SSources
  • KBeats
  • BBriefs
  • RIntel
  • QSearch
  • AActivity
  • +Health
  • ?Guide

v0.1.0

← Back to items

Episode 1088: "Borg's Next & Jack's Potter Request Worked"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 55s·analyzed·May 8, 2025
View original
Export .md

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Harry Potter will save the market while rumoring Stern's next Star Wars game and criticizing recent releases.

Summary

Kaneda discusses market softness in pinball, with secondary market prices collapsing on recent releases (Toy Story, Scooby-Doo, King Kong). He expresses hope that Harry Potter will revitalize the hobby. Key rumor: Stern's next game may be John Borg designing Star Wars Episodes 1-3, though Kaneda questions this choice. He also mentions Barrels of Fun NDA, Predator delay to summer, and criticisms of current game releases lacking genuine 'wow' moments.

Key Claims

  • Toy Story CE originally $15,000 now selling for $8,750 (~$6,400 loss), unsold on Pinside

    high confidence · Kaneda, observing current secondary market listings

  • Stern's next machine may be John Borg designing Star Wars Episodes 1-3 (Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith)

    medium confidence · Kaneda claims he is 'hearing' this, implies it may be Canadian-exclusive information

  • Predator (Pinball Brothers) is delayed to summer 2025 to avoid being overshadowed by Harry Potter

    medium confidence · Kaneda cites Naps Arcade post; Predator confirmed for Arnold Schwarzenegger inclusion

  • Barrels of Fun has signed Kaneda to an NDA regarding upcoming pipeline themes

    high confidence · Kaneda states directly he signed NDA with Barrels of Fun

  • King Kong is not selling well; Stern likely won't sell 5,000 units as expected

    medium confidence · Kaneda's observation of market trends and lack of sales momentum

  • Alice's Adventures in Wonderland production may total ~450 units, not 500 as promised

    low confidence · Kaneda's speculation based on market signals and inventory observations

  • Harry Potter will be Game of the Year 2025

    low confidence · Kaneda's prediction; explicitly states he hasn't seen the game yet

  • Elton John CE is holding value strongest among recent JJP releases, around $12,500 used

    medium confidence · Kaneda observing secondary market pricing trends

Notable Quotes

  • “I really hope Harry Potter brings us something so special that it reminds us of what we love so much about pinball.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Core thesis about market recovery through Harry Potter's quality and theme integration

  • “The great Keith Elwin has not sold out of his King Kong machine and the pros and the premiums are not selling very well.”

    Kaneda @ mid segment — Direct criticism of King Kong's market performance despite designer pedigree

  • “If Stern were smart, they would just make an all new game based on the original trilogy and they should make one game per movie.”

    Kaneda @ Star Wars rumor segment — Design strategy recommendation for hypothetical Star Wars machines

  • “Buy, buy, buy is dead. It's dead. You can't even sell, sell, sell a game for thousands off.”

    Kaneda @ market collapse segment — Statement on fundamental market shift away from premium pricing for recent releases

  • “I'm still asking people who ordered avatar, name me a wow moment in the game. And they still really can't.”

    Kaneda @ design criticism segment — Critique that recent premium releases lack memorable gameplay highlights

  • “There are some legacy designers out there that just need to call it quits.”

    Kaneda @ homebrew discussion — Harsh assessment of established designer output quality vs. homebrew innovation

Entities

Harry PottergameKanedapersonJohn BorgpersonKeith ElwinpersonJack DangerpersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyBarrels of Fun

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Multiple recent premium releases experiencing severe secondary market depreciation: Toy Story CE ($15K→$8.75K), Scooby-Doo CE ($12K+→$7K), King Kong LEs unsold

    high · Direct observation of Pinside listings; Kaneda states games 'not sold' despite significant markdowns

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Broader sentiment shift from 'buy, buy, buy' culture to wait-and-hold-money strategy; community resisting early purchases on incomplete code

    high · Kaneda explicitly states 'Buy, buy, buy is dead' and credits Jack Danger's Harry Potter announcement with suppressing earlier game sales

  • ?

    machine_intel: Stern Pinball's next game allegedly designed by John Borg, Star Wars Episodes 1-3 theme (Phantom Menace, Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith)

    medium · Kaneda: 'I am hearing that the new machine or next machine from Stern Pinball is going to be John Borg' and 'Star Wars based on episodes one through three'

  • ?

    product_launch: Predator (Pinball Brothers) pushed to summer 2025 release to avoid being overshadowed by Harry Potter launch

    medium · Kaneda cites Naps Arcade post; game has Arnold Schwarzenegger confirmed, delayed ~4-5 months from typical timeline

  • ?

    product_strategy: Jersey Jack Pinball holding CE pricing at $15,000 despite Harry Potter's anticipated blockbuster status; prices already raised on prior releases (Toy Story, Godfather, Elton John, Avatar)

    high · Kaneda notes JJP charged $15K for CEs for 'last four years' and is not raising Harry Potter price, suggesting price increase was anticipatory

Topics

Secondary market collapse and depreciation of recent premium pinball releasesprimaryHarry Potter as potential market recovery catalystprimaryRumor: Stern Star Wars next game (Episodes 1-3 via John Borg)primaryKing Kong sales underperformance despite Keith Elwin designprimaryBarrels of Fun NDA and pipeline secretssecondaryPredator delay to summer 2025 to avoid Harry Potter competitionsecondaryCritique of recent game design lacking 'wow' moments (Avatar, Dune, King Kong)secondaryHomebrew pinball innovation outpacing commercial manufacturerssecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Kaneda is pessimistic about current market state (collapsing prices, stale releases) with cautious hope that Harry Potter can reverse trends. Frustrated with design choices, critical of Keith Elwin's recent work, and disappointed by lack of innovation from established manufacturers. Tone is accusatory toward content creators and unsupportive of American Pinball.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.066

Well, he walked up to me and he asked me if I wanted to die. He looked kinda nice and so I said I might take a shot. I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said. Welcome, everybody, to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Happy Wednesday night. I'm just surfing pin side. My last show triggered some people. I didn't mention anybody by name. it's like everybody out there is like how dare you call me a shill how dare you call me a liar i didn't say anybody's name so clearly people are feeling something but i just want to let everybody know i'm sorry if i offended you out there if you make pinball content and you love pinball i'm not upset with you everybody do your content i'll do my content if i want to call someone out by name, then yes, you can come at me and say, how dare you call me out on your show. But if I say there are some content creators out there who get a discount on their games, that's not a lie. There are some content creators who get kickbacks for every game sold. They know who they are. It's just not Canadian, but it doesn't matter anymore. None of this matters anymore. I'm on a pin side right now and I see a Toy Story CE for sale. The game was originally $15,000. They supposedly made a thousand units. It's on the market now for $8,750. That's like a $6,400 loss on the game. And the scary part, it's not sold. I'm seeing a Scooby-Doo, CE with butter cabinet, everything. I think that game fully loaded with the topper was like $12,000 plus. And now it's like a $7,000 offer. Still not sold. Everybody. I'm looking at all these King Kong LEs. Unsold. The promise of better X-Men code. Stern's updating all the codes. They're putting everybody on the new menu system. But man, oh man, oh man, I really hope Harry Potter turns the tide. I really hope Harry Potter brings us something so special that it reminds us of what we love so much about pinball. Looking down under that glass, seeing a world under glass, seeing magical mechs, seeing the ball do really fun stuff, seeing the software and the music and the lights and everything sort of work together in harmony. I think that's what everybody wants with Harry Potter. It's not that all of us are the biggest Harry Potter fans. We're not. But we are fans of something called magic. And pinball wizard is like the phrase, right? It's like the iconic phrase in this hobby is becoming a pinball wizard and Harry is a wizard. And so even though this isn't like a dream theme for everybody, I think the elements of Harry Potter open the door for a truly special machine. And we're going to see this machine in about a week. And I absolutely do. Now looking back on it all. Jack telling everybody at TPF to hold on to your money because we have Harry Potter coming. Now in hindsight, that was a really smart move. I think a lot of people have held on to their money. The great Keith Elwin has not sold out of his King Kong machine and the pros and the premiums are not selling very well. And it's not because of tariffs overseas. It's because everyone's just sort of over this. They really don't care to go in early. The code's not even close to being done. And by the time you wait, you're going to save so much money. And everybody, all the games I just talked about earlier on the show, that's the big issue with pinball overall, is if you just wait, it seems like everything is losing a lot of money and nothing is holding very strong at all. And so we are on the eve of something that I hope makes price irrelevant. I mean that. I really hope Harry Potter comes out. And the thing we're all gushing about is what's in the game. They've removed price from the equation in the sense that nobody is gonna ever have to pay over what this company is gonna charge for this machine. And Jersey Jack's been charging $15,000 for their CEs now for the last four years. So it is of no surprise to anybody what this machine is gonna cost. And what is kind of crazy is they're not raising the price on their machine with such a popular title. It almost like they raised it before getting us ready for Harry Potter because they knew they had Harry Potter so might as well jack up the price I think the first game was Toy Story 4 then it was what? Godfather, then it was Elton John, and then it was Avatar. None of those games have remotely held close to 15 in value. The closest one is Elton John CE. Seems to be hanging strong around 12.5 if you want to get a used version of the game. So Harry Potter. I really, really hope this game brings a new level of positivity and optimism into the hobby. My worry about the game is Jersey Jack. They haven't done it in the past. They really haven't made a game better. I mean, it's better than Wizard of Oz in terms of fully loaded theme integrated game with all the magic you want. Obviously, Elton John is their best shooting game of all time. It is one of the best shooting pinball machines of all time, but it's not a theme that most people want. And I would argue that music pins, regardless of the music that's happening in the game, I think all music pins get a little bit stale over time. And so we've got a movie franchise with eight films. How are they going to handle all that content? Now, I'm about to give you what I don't even know if this is a Canadian exclusive. Maybe people have said this before. So just take this at face value. I am hearing that the new machine or next machine from Stern Pinball is going to be John Borg. Now, what I am now hearing is this. It is going to be Star Wars based on episodes one through three. so that is what like Phantom Menace uh Attack of the Clones and what is the last one I don't even know the last title um but that would be like the Jar Jar Binks Darth Maul and Qui-Gon and you know all that Quado why did I just say Quado isn't that like Total Recall who's the guy the blue dude who's like selling Annie the parts but my point is this so maybe it's not Skeleton Crew So we all thought that if Stern had a new Star Wars game coming, it was going to be based on one of the new Star Wars TV shows. But Skeleton Crew sort of bombed when it comes to ratings. So is this going to happen? Is John Borg going to make Star Wars episodes one through three? If Stern were smart, they would just make an all new game based on the original trilogy. and they should make one game per movie. A New Hope, Empire Strikes Back, and Return of the Jedi. If they made those three games separate and released one game a year, they would sell of each SKU if they did it right. Imagine this. Imagine if Keith Elwin, instead of making this kiddie comic book looking King Kong, and I know they missed out on Back to the Future. So what I would do if I were Stern, let's give Keith Elwin the original Star Wars trilogy. Let's let him make each one and then you know everyone's going to shoot great. You're going to have the best software team on each one. They have access to all the assets you want. They just wrapped it into one of the worst games, I believe, in terms of translating a theme that everybody loves, a damn TIE fighter on a spring. I mean, we're not that far off now with this damn spider on a stick, whatever the heck that thing is. But that's what I would have done if I were Stern. I would not ask John Borg to make episodes one through three. Culturally, we've moved beyond those movies and then some. And so that is what I'm hearing might be coming out. And then that opens the door for Jack Danger to be on Pokemon, which makes a lot more sense. It is Jack who comes from the Pokemon generation. I'm still worried about Pokemon. I think Harry Potter is different because Harry Potter's theme is something everybody can relate to and it makes more sense. But Pokemon is not. Like these grown 40 to 60 year old men are not going to get into Jigglypuff fighting Pikachu. It's just not going to happen. But you can get a lot more into a wizard battling an evil wizard and magic and flying and spells and all that stuff and castles and candlelit lighting. All of it could be super cool. So that is what I'm hearing. So all of a sudden, are you interested? it. Are you curious? Is Stern going to release Spike 3 now with a Star Wars pinball machine? And look, I've heard from people that the Steve Ritchie Star Wars game, as much as I don't like it, I've heard that is the best selling Stern pinball machine of all time. And I would not argue with that. It is still Star Wars and they made so many versions of it. They made a crappy R2 topper that now sells for thousands of dollars It still Star Wars The moment that iconic theme song hits it pulls you in It is just such an underwhelming game creatively. And I don't think it should be all in one game. So we will see what happens there. What else is going on in pinball? So I did sign an NDA with Barrels of Fun. And I want to be transparent about that. and I can't give you many details right now. It's not going to make me start singing the praises of Dune. You've heard me do my Dune shows recently. I still think the game is not ready for primetime and I can't wait to play it when all the assets are in. But right now, Dune should not have been released. Now, that being said, there's one reason and one reason only I would sign an NDA with barrels of fun. It is because they have some themes coming out that I would absolutely love to help this company nail those themes. These are dream themes. I am so excited for what they have in the pipeline. And it's crazy to me that Stern Pinball slept on some of these properties. But again, when you're a boutique and you only need to sell a thousand, you can go grab things that are much different than a company that needs to sell like 5,000 of every single game they come out with. I don't even think they're going to get close to selling 5,000 King Kongs. I don't. It really feels like that game is not selling. And I know why a lot of people are angry with me right now, because it's the Elwynn fanboys. You really can't say anything. And it's not even like we're saying anything negative about Elwynn. We're just saying his winning streak is up on King Kong. It's just not a big enough theme. And what's crazy too is if there's a Star Wars game next, they should have gave that to Keith Elwin. Who amongst us, I don't care what Star Wars movie it is, heck, Force Awakens, who amongst us wouldn't want a Keith Elwin Star Wars pin? Much more than King Kong with comic book style art and animations. Also, when it comes to the barrels NDA. I'm going to meet with those guys. I'm going to fly down there. I also don't know when these themes are even coming out. So nothing that I heard about should make you hesitate on Dune. I think this stuff has got a few years before it even comes to market. Because remember, there's sort of like a one theme a year company. And I heard from somebody, they're like, well, Kaneda, I don't think you're going to love their next theme. So, okay, I don't know what their next one is yet. I haven't got all the details, so we'll see. Now, speaking of themes that I do love, we all know Predator is delayed. I am hearing that Arnold is in it, and now we're hearing that the Pinball Brothers, I think Naps Arcade put this up, they might be waiting to sometime in the summer to release this game because they didn't want to get lost in the shuffle. They don't want to get destroyed by Harry Potter. I mean, that's all it comes down to. And I guess that makes sense, but hopefully they're making the game better than ABBA and better than Queen. If they only need to sell a thousand of these things, it doesn't matter when you release Predator. If Arnold's in it, even if this game is not great, they will sell all 1000. There's a lot more enthusiasm for a theme like Predator than a theme like even Dune or even King Kong. I mean that. I mean that There are a lot more of us that just love Predator and can quote that movie. Give me one quote from a King Kong movie. You can't even. You don't even know one line from a King Kong movie, and yet you know a lot of lines from Predator. What else is shaking in the pinball world? We've got Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. That is starting to make its way out to customers. I also see there are more and more people putting up their spots for sale. You know how I feel. I think in the end, they're going to make more like 450 of these games, not 500. I don't think that Barry's going to have Back to the Future ready. And then I think we're going to get Raza next. Where's Cuphead? Speaking of the devil, where's Cuphead? Where's this American pinball Cuphead machine? Are we going to see that game sometime in the summer? I don't know. Some people apparently have seen it, said it's American Pinball's best game to date, which is not saying anything at all. But who knows? I have absolutely no line of sight into that company. I actually willingly avoid any news to do with that company after what that company or David Fix did to me. So I don't really care. I really don't care about supporting anything they do. Now that Fix is gone, I will look at this game objectively. I just don't feel good vibes when I think about American Pinball. when's everybody getting their Merlin's Arcade when's everybody going to get their portal I've seen these two games at shows I'm just curious when people are actually going to get them that's the big question if I ordered a portal a day when am I getting it if I ordered a Merlin Arcade when am I getting it when it comes to Merlin Arcade I would say he sells about 100 When it comes to Portal I don know how well they going to do If you own a Multimorphic, you're definitely going to buy this kit. It's not cheap. It's like $6,000. But I don't think we're going to see people even unboxing this game until sometime in the late summer. You know, by then we're going to have Harry Potter. We're going to have Predator. We're going to have Stern's next game. is just going to keep on going. There's been no real surprises. Have you noticed that? No one sort of came out of left field with a surprise. I thought by now we'd see Pedretti's toad in. I thought by now we'd see even a new pinball company jump into the ring. I don't know. I just thought by now somebody would have something up their sleeve that we didn't expect. I think it's all becoming very predictable. If Canada's Pinball Podcast is becoming a little bit stale, it's simply because everything happening in the pinball world is damn stale i mean we all knew what was coming out we knew all of these titles the only one that people really didn't know much about was predator and now we're not even getting it for like another like four to five months by the time it comes out we've now known about it for so long have you guys seen this machine in france it's like this ufo machine where there's like a ufo that grabs the ball then there's this hand that pops out of the playfield firing a ray gun. It is one of the coolest machines I've ever seen. The mechs in this game have more wow in them than King Kong, more wow in them than maybe even Dune, more wow in them than Avatar. So it's like, wow, wow. I kind of feel like some of the most exciting pinball happening in the world right now is happening in the homebrew space. when you see these homebrew machines at some of these shows look at them look at what's in them look how creative these guys are getting this is where we're going to find the next Keith Elwin that's where you're going to find the next Jack Danger there are some legacy designers out there that just need to call it quits you know Mark Seiden came from that space underwhelmed by what Avatar was I don't know what happened with that whole game I don't know why all the effort went into those lower playfields. There's no toys in the game. It just feels like a miss. I hope Mark gets another swing at the plate. I really do. And I hope they give him something to work with. That's just better than avatar. I'm still asking people who ordered avatar, name me a moment in the game. That's a wow moment. And they still really can't. The only thing they can ever tell you is like eclipse jackpot. That's it. That's all this game's got. When the eclipse is happening, you're building up points and there's a tough shot up the right ramp. That's it. No other moments of wow, because all this stuff happening in the game, it's like spoken in that language. They don't even know what the heck they're doing. Look, everybody, we're about a week away. I think we might get Harry Potter next Friday. When this thing drops, it is going to just take over. Kong didn't do it. Dune didn't do it. Evil Dead wowed everybody, but that came out in December. This is going to be, I think, the game of the year. I mean it. I think Harry Potter is going to be the game of the year. I haven't even seen it yet, but I know King Kong's not going to win game of the year. It's not going to be Dune. It's going to be Evil Dead or Harry Potter. I mean it. I feel like Evil Dead. If we were to vote right now, Evil Dead might win as the most impressive game so far in 2025. Heck, I think it's the number one game on Pinside now. You really can't find people to say bad stuff about Evil Dead. I love it. I absolutely love it. Everybody, I'm very proud of you. I'm very proud of you. You guys are holding strong. You're keeping your money in your pockets, pissing off some people out there. Buy, buy, buy is dead. It's dead. You can't even sell, sell, sell a game for thousands off. They're not moving. Go on Pinside. Look at the used game market gang and just look at all of the games for sale. Someone's trying to sell a Batman SLE. It's Tilt Amusements, a routed version of a Batman SLE. Routed, which means it's probably all beat up and scuffed up and bad stuff happened to that game. They want to sell a routed Batman SLE for $25,000. These days are over. Over. Because you can never get replacement anything for that game. And who wants a game that requires to be owned by an OCD collector? Nobody's going to want an SLE with scratches and dings and dents and things that are broken. There's no way any of That artwork is ruined. You're never getting more of it. No way. No way. $25,000. Come on, people. Go buy a Nintendo Switch for $450 and have way more fun. Kaneda out.
company
Pinball Brotherscompany
King Konggame
Toy Story CEgame
Star Warsgame
Predatorgame
Dunegame
Avatargame
Evil Deadgame
Alice's Adventures in Wonderlandgame
Portalgame
Merlin's Arcadegame
Cupheadgame
David Fixperson
Mark Seidenperson
Naps Arcadeperson
  • ?

    community_signal: Kaneda addresses criticism about unnamed attacks on content creators, claiming some receive discounts and kickbacks; defends transparency while acknowledging lack of specific attribution

    medium · Opening segment: 'I didn't mention anybody by name' but claims knowledge of 'content creators who get kickbacks for every game sold'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Kaneda criticizes recent premium games (Avatar, Dune, King Kong) for lacking memorable memorable moments; praises homebrew innovation over legacy designer output

    medium · Extended critique: 'name me a wow moment' in Avatar; calls some legacy designers should 'call it quits'

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Barrels of Fun pursuing IP that Stern overlooked; Kaneda speculates themes are several years away; suggests Stern sleeping on properties due to scale economics (boutique can do 1K, Stern needs 5K)

    medium · Kaneda signed NDA with Barrels of Fun, describes pipeline as 'dream themes'; cites production scale constraints as reason Stern passes on smaller IP

  • ?

    product_concern: Dune (Barrels of Fun) released prematurely without all assets integrated; code incomplete on King Kong; community waiting for code maturity before purchasing

    high · Kaneda: 'Dune should not have been released' and 'code's not even close to being done' on King Kong; describes market waiting strategy as intentional

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Speculation that Keith Elwin should have received Star Wars instead of King Kong; suggests Jack Danger better fit for Pokemon; implies designer-IP matching impacts game success

    low · Kaneda hypothesizes: 'If they made those three games separate...everyone's going to shoot great'; questions Borg on Episodes 1-3 fit

  • ?

    supply_chain_signal: Multiple games experiencing shipment delays: Portal kit (late summer), Merlin's Arcade (uncertain), Cuphead (speculated summer), Alice's Adventures ~450 units vs 500 planned

    medium · Kaneda notes no unboxing expected until 'late summer' for Portal; speculation on Cuphead timing; Alice's production shortfall assessment

  • ?

    industry_signal: Kaneda criticizes overall pinball industry for lack of surprises; no unexpected new manufacturers or unannounced projects; calls industry 'stale' and predictable

    medium · Kaneda: 'No one sort of came out of left field with a surprise' and 'everything happening in the pinball world is damn stale'