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Episode 897: "Kaneda's 'State-of-the-Art' JAWS Show!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 19s·analyzed·Jan 5, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

Jaws LE sells out day one, but Kaneda finds it pedestrian; Stern ends LE reruns, explores DMD remakes.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes Stern Pinball's newly revealed Jaws machine, confirming day-one sellout of Limited Edition units through distributors like Cointaker and Automate It. While acknowledging Keith Elwin's design pedigree and the game's strong IP appeal, Kaneda criticizes the machine as pedestrian and lacking innovation, questioning Stern's claims of 'state-of-the-art' technology. Major news includes Seth Davis's announcement that Stern will no longer produce Limited Edition reruns of existing games and will explore rerunning classic DMD-era titles in Pro/Premium formats.

Key Claims

  • Jaws Limited Edition sold out through major distributors Cointaker and Automate It on day one

    high confidence · Direct distributor confirmation; Kaneda reached out to both

  • Seth Davis announced Stern will no longer produce Limited Edition reruns of games that already have LE versions

    high confidence · Confirmed during distributor calls; Kaneda describes as 'huge news'

  • Stern is exploring rerunning classic DMD-era games (Ghostbusters, KISS, Metallica) in Pro/Premium formats

    high confidence · Seth Davis announcement during distributor calls

  • Jaws artwork was created by the same artist who did Rush

    high confidence · Kaneda identifies artist from visual style comparison; notes photographic airbrushing technique vs Rush's hand-drawn approach

  • Jaws Pinball contains no lower/translucent playfield, unlike James Bond

    high confidence · Kaneda observes from video footage

  • Stern's new factory is large enough to accommodate multiple concurrent production lines for LCD and DMD machines

    medium confidence · Kaneda's speculation based on factory scale observation; not official confirmation

  • Jaws is expected to reach code version ~0.88 at launch

    medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on development timeline; not confirmed

  • A typical good-selling pinball machine reaches 4,000-6,000 units; Jaws LE represents ~1,000 units

    medium confidence · Kaneda's industry estimates for production context

Notable Quotes

  • “What is in Jaws Pinball by Stern Pinball is state technology? I would really love for them to explain to us where the state technology is.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Core criticism of Stern's marketing claims; sets up main analytical theme

  • “The only thing this game is going to be terrorizing is our wallets when we all have to spend so much money to upgrade all of the flat plastic in this game.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Sarcastic critique of plastic/cosmetic quality and cost of ownership

  • “Seth Davis confirmed they are no longer going to remake limited edition versions of older games. Now, this is huge news.”

    Kaneda @ late-episode — Major business policy announcement; market-shifting decision

  • “It feels like another Keith Elwin game, which is a really good thing. He is arguably the best designer right now, but nothing in this game really feels like they took a chance, like they took a risk.”

    Kaneda @ late-episode — Qualified praise; suggests Elwin's design is competent but uninspired this cycle

  • “It feels like a middle-of-the-road, par-for-the-course Stern Pinball machine. It doesn't feel like something that took Godzilla and turned it up a notch.”

    Kaneda @ conclusion — Final assessment; frames Jaws as lateral move rather than progression

  • “I think Keith Elwin's a little bit vulnerable with this game. I'm going to be honest. I think the door is open for Jersey Jack Pinball.”

    Kaneda @ late-episode — Competitive positioning; suggests JJP opportunity window

  • “If I was Jersey Jack Pinball, there would be no better time to announce your remaking Pirates of the Caribbean than right now.”

    Kaneda @ closing — Strategic recommendation for JJP competitive response

Entities

KanedapersonKeith ElwinpersonGeorge GomezpersonSeth DavispersonGary SternpersonMichael BernardpersonRichard DreyfusspersonJohn Williams

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: Stern exploring rerunning classic DMD-era games (Ghostbusters, KISS, potentially Metallica, Lord of the Rings, Tron) in Pro/Premium formats using new factory capacity

    high · Seth Davis announcement; Kaneda speculates on specific titles based on licensing likelihood

  • ?

    business_signal: Seth Davis announced Stern will cease production of Limited Edition reruns for games that already have LE versions in circulation

    high · Made during distributor calls; Kaneda frames as response to 'moaning and groaning' about collector market saturation

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Keith Elwin perceived as vulnerable; Jersey Jack, Dutch Pinball, and other manufacturers have competitive window opportunity

    medium · Kaneda explicitly states 'I think Keith Elwin's a little bit vulnerable with this game' and 'The door is open for Jersey Jack Pinball'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball suggested as optimal competitor to announce Pirates of the Caribbean remake during Jaws release window to capture disillusioned market

    low · Kaneda's strategic recommendation, not confirmed JJP plan

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Jaws criticized as lacking mechanical 'wow moments' or innovative features; perceived as iterative rather than progressive from Godzilla

    high · Core analytical refrain: 'nothing mechanically that's really like a wow moment,' 'nothing that seems that innovative,' 'Everything seems a little pedestrian'

Topics

Jaws Pinball design philosophy and mechanical executionprimaryStern Pinball marketing claims vs actual innovation ('state-of-the-art' criticism)primaryLimited Edition pricing ($12,999) and market saturation concernsprimaryStern's policy shift: ending LE reruns and exploring DMD remakesprimaryDay-one sellout dynamics and secondary market speculationsecondaryCompetitive positioning (Stern vs Jersey Jack vs Spooky vs Dutch)secondaryKeith Elwin's design trajectory and vulnerabilitysecondaryPinball production capacity and factory scalingmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda acknowledges Jaws as competent and commercially successful (day-one sellout, strong IP, Keith Elwin pedigree) but expresses significant disappointment with perceived lack of innovation, pedestrian design, weak mechanical features, and gap between marketing claims and actual product. Positive sentiment derives from acknowledgment of designer quality and IP strength; negative sentiment dominates analysis of creative execution and value proposition. Seth Davis's policy announcements are treated as genuinely positive news.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.061

I want to know what love is. I want you to show me. I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said, I said. Oh, welcome to part two of Like Canada's Jaws Week Spectacular. How's everybody doing? So we got more information of Jaws Pinball. We saw a longer video with George Gomez and Keith Elwin. We saw more of the features of the game. We heard a lot of conversation on Pinside around this game. I reached out to Cointaker. They're sold out. Automated. Sold out. So it seems that all of the moaning and groaning around Stern Prices and LEs aren't really falling on receptive ears. I think they sold out of Jaws Pinball. Now remember, most of these are sold through. There are still going to be distributors that have this game. But once again, as I predicted, a day one sellout of Jaws Pinball. And were you really surprised? It's Keith Elwin. It's Jaws. It's an iconic theme. And even though stuff looks pretty cheap in a lot of the sculpts, and even though, you know, they don't have Brody in the game, there's enough here to like to pull the trigger on a game right now. And I think the climate for this game, remember, right, over the last couple of years, there really hasn't been a game that's blown people away. And I think people have been waiting for this game for a while. And I think you can look at this game either way you want to look at it. I think you can look at this game and make fun of it. I think you can make fun of how cheap a lot of the stuff looks in a Stern machine. You can make fun of how outdated the lighting system is. You can make fun of the chum bucket. You can make fun of this and that. Like it's still just a Stern machine. And then you could look at this game and say, hey, it looks like it's fun. It looks like the shots are going to be there. It looks like there's enough variety in the shots. They got Richard Richard Dreyfuss to do the official call outs of the game. And you've got official movie clips from four Jaws films. You've got a 3D video mode of the game. You've got foiled artwork that's going to simulate being underwater. You know, you've got stuff to appreciate. And I think that's really what defines a new pinball reveal, especially one from Stern. I mean, Stern's always going to get a lot of opinions from a lot of people. So I think each and every one of us, we walk to these games and we bring ourselves to the analysis of the game. For some of you, this game isn't worth anywhere near $13,000 for an LE. For some of you, you bought it today. I know a lot of you bought this game today and that's fine. For some of you, you think the pro is good enough. For some of you, you think the pro is a total joke with the shark just sitting there. I mean, think about it for a minute though. Jaws is all about the shark making an appearance and if the shark is just always there, doesn't that ruin the dramatic effect of what the entire franchise is about? I think it looks absolutely comical. I don't think I could ever actually, with a straight face, own a pro version of this machine because of how silly it looks that a shark is floating in midair inside a shark cage, floating like a few inches above the playfield. It looks absolutely ridiculous, ladies and gentlemen. It's interesting, too, that there's no lower playfield in this game whatsoever. There's no translucent area of the playfield in which you're looking through. I mean, in James Bond, they've got more real estate about something happening underwater than they do in Jaws pinball. Really strange decision there, if you ask me. But now that I've seen all three versions, I get what Stern's going for. You notice how like the Pro and the LE have the trans light everybody wants? I don't really like the premium trans light. The premium artwork on the side is nice, and now we know who the artist is. It is the same artist who did the art for Rush Pinball. This looks a lot better than the art in Rush. I think he used a different technique here. In Rush, it looks like he hand drew them from nothing. On this one, doesn't it look like he took photographs of these actors and then airbrushed over them, a la Franchise sort of style of art? It looks more like that. So let's do this real quick. Let me read you the press release from Stern Pinball about Jaws Pinball. Stern Pinball announces their newest pinball games featuring Jaws, one of the most iconic motion picture thrillers of all time from Universal Pictures and Amblim Entertainment. Players will experience all four blockbuster Jaws films like never before with brand new mechanical features inspired by iconic movie moments and state of the art technology. All right, let me just stop right there. What in Jaws Pinball? Think about this for a minute What inside of Jaws Pinball by Stern is state technology I would really love for them to explain to us where the state technology is Jaws Pinball games are available in Pro, Premium, and Limited Edition models. Jaws transports players to the fictional locale of Amity Island, located off the coast of Long Island, New York. If you go to the George Gomez and Keith Elwin video, I believe Keith Elwin says New Robert Englunds and not New York. Kind of funny. It's a sunny day in New Robert Englunds. It's a sunny day in New Robert Englunds. It's a sunny day in New Robert Englunds. What? It's making me revolt. The small fishing community is a popular beach vacation location in the summer. I don't know if I would use vacation and location right next to each other. As 4th of July vacationers close in on the island's picturesque beaches, grave danger lurks below sea level. The Amity Island mayor covers up the shark attacks out of fear of losing the island's tourism money, resulting in more terrifying attacks. Now we get into the pinball machine. Stern's Jaws pinball games will have players grabbing their harpoons and playing as Quint, Hooper, and Brody to save Amity Island's residents and the 4th of July. In the Stern video itself, he said you're just playing as Quint. So I'm a little bit confused. Is it all three of them, or is it just Quint? You're Quint the bounty hunter. You're Quint the bounty hunter. You're Quint the Bounty Hunter. As the grizzled fishermen tackle the most dangerous ocean creatures on the planet, tension mounts as you see blood in the water from our animated lighting effects. Fire pinballs at the motorized shark fin target swimming across the playfield. Anticipation builds as you navigate the orca boat upper playfield featuring a lookout tower ramp, a ship's wheel horizontal spinner on the deck, and a radio stand-up target to call for help. Look out! A motorized, custom-sculpted, great white shark bash toy comes crashing through the bottom of a fishing boat, terrorizing players in this thrilling pinball odyssey. Will you survive, Jaws? Oh my gosh, I'm reading it with as much hyperbole that is in the written word here by Stern Pinball. Now, ladies and gentlemen, we've seen the footage of this game. Do you think this game is going to be terrorizing anybody. The only thing this game is going to be terrorizing is our wallets when we all have to spend so much money to upgrade all of the flat plastic in this game to make the game look like a world under glass from Amity Island. I mean, seriously, terrorizing players. In addition to immersive film and audio assets integrated into pinball action, Jaws includes custom speech by actor Richard Richard Dreyfuss and the iconic movie theme by John Williams. I love this quote. Get ready for it. Honoring one of the greatest movie franchises of all time, we're giving Jaws our most advanced software and hardware to date, said Seth Davis, president and CEO of Stern Pinball. We can't wait to debut Jaws Pinball's heart-pounding gameplay to the world. Heart-pounding. Okay, heart-pounding. And again, like looking at Jaws Pinball and looking over Stern's games over the last few years. This is the most advanced hardware to date in a Stern machine. Where is the advanced hardware? Where is the state-of-the-art technology? Are QR codes state-of-the-art technology? They go on to talk about Insider Connected. Then they talk about the hand-drawn artwork by Michael Michael Barnard. Exclusive custom great white powder coat pinball armor. The fact that we're calling the color white exclusive and custom is so funny. It's got expression lighting in the speakers only with Jaws-themed game effects, sonar, water, blood in the water, and more. A custom-designed autographed button arc. Maybe that's the state of the art. A custom-designer autographed button arc. Exclusive inside art blades, upgraded audio system, anti-reflection pinball play-filled glass, shaker motor, and sequentially numbered plaque, and a certificate of authenticity signed by Stern president and CEO Seth Davis and chairman and founder Gary Stern. Keith Elwin doesn't even sign this game? What? There we have it, ladies and gentlemen, the most state-of-the-art from Stern Pinball. The press releases are funny. That's why I like reading this stuff. I don't even know why they bother with these press releases, because You don't need to read a press release. You need to just look at the game. And after looking over the game again, looking at all three packages of the game, I think this game is going to do just fine. It's like I said earlier, I think this game is going to net out somewhere around like the Jurassic Park level of response. And I think when you play this game and looking at the modes in the game it going to be interesting because the one question mark I still have how exciting will the replay value on this game be? Like, what are you actually doing in the game? And when you look at the inserts, you're capturing different kinds of sharks. There's like a tiger head. There's a hammerhead. There's a great white. There's a mako shark. And so like, is that the point of the game is like you're hunting not just jaws, but you're also going after other sharks in the ocean in search of Jaws, which is kind of like the storyline from the movie. And I guess the question is, is just how exciting will that be? Will there be a ton of replay value? Will it capture your imagination like other Stern machines that you love? And we don't know yet, right? Will the code in this be as good as the code in Godzilla? And I think what's going to make this game interesting is they do have a lot of movie assets they're going to put into this. And hopefully when this game comes out, like over the next week or so, this game is going to be pretty far along. I hope it's not going to be a James Bond scenario where you're still waiting for most of the stuff to be incorporated into the game. I don't think that's going to be the case. I think they've been working on this game for a while. And I think when it does come out, it's going to be around like code 0.88 or something like that. So the LDs are sold out and there's no rush to get a premium or pro. They're going to build the pros and LEs first. They're going to want to get all that money in-house. And look, you know, I'm looking down at the game again. I'm looking at the LE. I'm looking at the pro. I will say this. My overall assessment after watching all of the videos, after hearing all of the feedback, after hearing all of the debate back and forth, I just feel like this game is a good game. I feel like it's not the greatest thing we've ever seen. I don't see anything happening mechanically that's really like a wow moment. There's nothing in the lighting or the artwork or in the atmospheric effect of the game that's making me go, oh my gosh, did you see that? There's nothing that's really state of the art. There's nothing that seems that innovative. There's nothing that seems that advanced. It feels like another Keith Elwin game, which is a really good thing. He is arguably the best designer right now, but nothing in this game really feels like they took a chance, like they took a risk, like they had to burn the midnight oil to figure out how to make that work. Everything in it seems a little pedestrian. And that's just my take on this game. And that's why it's a hard pill to swallow when you look at how much money, you know, the LE is. The fact that the LE sold out on day one, does that mean the LEs are going to go up in value over $13,000? Have any of you out there been shut out from getting an LE and you really wanted one? I think with a thousand out there, think about it like this for a moment, people. A really good selling pinball machine is like 4,000 units, right? If it's a great machine, it's selling like 5,000 to 6,000 units. So let's just say they sell 4,000 Jaws pinball machines. That's a lot. Like that's a lot of money. That's a lot of machines to make 4,000 of them. You don't think about that in the context of like Spooky Pinball needs a year and a half to make 1,900 games. 4,000 Jaws pinball machines are sold. A quarter of those are going to be LE machines. So one out of every four person who owns one after they make 4,000 is going to own a limited edition version of the game. So I don't think they're going to be hard to get. And maybe the biggest news of the day wasn't even the Jaws news because we've already seen the video on Jaws for like 48 hours. The biggest news of the day, during the distributor calls, Seth Davis confirmed they are no longer going to remake limited edition versions of older games. Now, this is huge news. And it's clear that Seth Davis has heard a lot of the moaning and groaning and realizes if he kills the collector side of pinball, he's going to kill his own business. So there will never be more reruns of games that had limited edition versions out in the world. But I still have a question. Is an anniversary edition a limited edition game? He said they're never going to rerun LEs of games. And what I think he means by that is they're not going to make another run of like Star Wars LE. But does that mean they're not going to make a Star Wars anniversary edition? They're not going to make another Batman SLE. I'm thankful for that. Does that mean they're not going to make a 60th anniversary edition of Batman and just call it something else? I think we need another level of clarity on what he means by that. If Godzilla's 70th anniversary comes out this year, that's technically not a rerun of the LE of Godzilla. It's a whole new edition. Remember, they made a limited edition version of Elvira. The Blood Kiss edition is not a rerun of that LE It a completely different art package So even though I would love to celebrate this news I still don't trust Stern Pinball is not going to pull a fast one on us. They've had such a history of pulling a fast one on the pinball community. And the other huge news that came out of today, did you see this? He also said we are looking at rerunning DMD games. DMD games in pro and premium format We are looking at making more of them And you know what themes they must be It's got to be Ghostbusters It's probably KISS Isn't KISS a DMD game? Like all of those Spike 1 DMD games I think are fair game to come back And I wonder if Metallica is going to come back as a DMD And not as an LCD game But imagine if they go back and make more Lord of the Rings And more Trons And I think Stern's going to really just start to flood the market with everything they've got. This big factory, people, I mean, it is ginormous. They could have one wing of the factory making LCD games. They could have another whole division with like tens of thousands of square feet making older DMD games. I mean, they could actually fit two to three of Stern's old factory inside this new one. And I think they're just going to keep cranking and cranking stuff out. That was very big news today that started out the day. So here we are. The week is almost over. What I would love to see is just someone play this game. I still don't like the fact that they don't play the game for you. Like nobody walks up and does a like 30-minute stream of just playing Jaws so you can see what the game is like before you have to write a check for $13,000. I mean, we're still at that point. But I think a lot of you out there are getting wiser. And a lot of you out there are also not falling for the Elifomo. And you can take your time. You can play this game when you get a chance to play it. It's going to be on location real soon. It's going to be in Vegas at CES next week, like on Tuesday. And I think it might be a little bit disappointing. I hope we get a gameplay from Stern or Jack Danger or Keith Elwin before then. I would hate the world premiere of real gameplay to be over-the-shoulder footage from CES. I think that's the worst way to show the game for the first time. So we're almost at the end of Shark Week. Did Jaws exceed your expectations? Did it not meet your expectations? Or did it just fall in line with your expectations? It definitely did not exceed my expectations. There's nothing in it that's really blowing me away. but there's nothing in it that really upsets me. It feels like a middle-of-the-road, par-for-the-course stern machine. It doesn't feel like something that took Godzilla and turned it up a notch. And maybe it's the pedestrian artwork. Maybe it's the lack of interesting sculpts. Maybe it's the fact that nothing mechanically we haven't seen before. There's not much not to like, but there's not much to love. It just feels like, okay, we've seen this. another Stern. It's a great IP. It's a great designer and everything else is sort of halfway there. That's my feeling on Jaws. I don't think this game is going to create that seismic shift I thought would happen as we started 2024. I think Elwin's a little bit vulnerable with this game. I got to be honest. I think the door is open for Jersey Jack. The door is open now for Dutch Pinball. the door is open for some other pinball company to wow us more than this game. I don't think this game is going to end the year as being the game of the year. I really don't. We shall see what happens. You know, and such a shame that all Jersey Jacks got right now to compete with this is Elton John. I mean, if I was Jersey Jack, there would be no better time to announce your remaking Pirates of the Caribbean than right now. Like you think that's a boat? This is a boat. We're happy to announce everybody that we're bringing Pirates of the Caribbean back for a limited run and get your orders in today. I mean, what better time to do it than this plastic orca that doesn't really do much. Everybody, two shows in one day. You can't deny the fact. I'm going to get your content. I'm going to get your content. Everybody, have a good night. We'll talk to you probably tomorrow. Later. I don't need you And I know, and I know I know you can show me Show me that you can I want to know I want to know I want to know I want you to show me I want to know I want to know I want to know I want to feel the love in you I want to feel
person
Stern Pinballcompany
Jersey Jack Pinballcompany
Spooky Pinballcompany
Dutch Pinballcompany
Cointakercompany
Automate Itcompany
Jawsgame
Godzillagame
James Bondgame
Jurassic Parkgame
Pirates of the Caribbeangame
Elton Johngame
?

event_signal: Jaws scheduled for public debut at CES next week (Tuesday); gameplay footage expected before then, though risk of over-the-shoulder premiere footage quality

high · Kaneda hopes for official gameplay stream before CES; expresses concern about worst-case premiere scenario

  • $

    market_signal: Jaws Limited Edition confirmed sold out through major distributors (Cointaker, Automate It) on day one; 1,000 LE units represent ~25% of projected 4,000 total Jaws production

    high · Kaneda reached out to distributors for confirmation; used as basis for demand analysis

  • $

    market_signal: Stern marketing claims of 'state-of-the-art technology' and 'advanced hardware' strongly disputed by Kaneda; QR codes and LED speakers cited as only tangible 'advancements'

    high · Kaneda repeatedly challenges marketing language; dedicates substantial analysis to debunking 'state of the art' claim

  • ?

    announcement: Michael Bernard confirmed as artist for Jaws Limited Edition; identified as same artist who previously worked on Rush with different technique (photographic airbrushing vs hand-drawn)

    medium · Kaneda identifies from visual analysis; notes stylistic shift in approach

  • ?

    product_strategy: James Bond referenced as cautionary example of incomplete code at launch; Kaneda hopeful Jaws launches at ~code 0.88 rather than repeating that pattern

    medium · Indirect inference about development timeline; not confirmed delay signal

  • ?

    product_concern: Jaws artwork described as 'pedestrian'; sculpts noted as appearing 'cheap'; Pro Edition shark placement deemed 'absolutely ridiculous' and 'silly'

    high · Visual analysis of game footage; repeated criticism of plastic quality and design decisions

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community sentiment on Jaws appears muted despite day-one LE sellout; strong FOMO driving sales not sustained enthusiasm

    medium · Kaneda notes people buying despite reservations; 'a lot of you out there are not falling for the FOMO'