Episode 975: "Would JJP Avatar Sell? Kaneda Collector's Corner"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 22s·held·Jul 12, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda analyzes Avatar pinball rumors and secondary market pricing trends amid Stern anniversary edition strategy shifts.

Summary

Kaneda discusses rumors of a Jersey Jack Avatar: The Way of Water pinball machine, analyzes Stern's Godzilla Premium black-and-white edition and potential King Kong variants, and provides extensive secondary market pricing analysis for various collector pinball machines. He argues Avatar would underperform due to weak cultural impact compared to iconic franchises, while speculating on how premium anniversary editions could reshape FOMO and market dynamics. The episode features guest commentary from George Gomez and anecdotal IP connection insights.

Key Claims

A black-and-white King Kong pinball machine from Keith Elwin based on the original 1930s film would be a major seller if done with original Empire State Building theming and interactive airplane toppers.
medium confidence · Kaneda speculation; framed as 'should be' rather than confirmed plans
George Gomez stated that Stern will make Premium versions of Anniversary Editions and new reruns of games, and these Premiums will NOT be limited editions.
high confidence · Kaneda reports direct conversation with George Gomez this morning
The black-and-white Godzilla Premium edition is the nicest version of the game and will likely have fewer than 1,000 units produced.
medium confidence · Kaneda analysis based on George Gomez comments about in-person appearance
Avatar: The Way of Water lacks cultural stickiness compared to franchises like Back to the Future, Karate Kid, Die Hard, or The Matrix, making it a poor choice for a narrative-driven pinball game.
medium confidence · Kaneda opinion based on audience recall and narrative familiarity analysis
John Landau, Avatar franchise executive producer, was friends with Leonard Abbas (Jersey Jack owner) and knew about unreleased JJP games, suggesting Avatar IP holders have relationships with JJP.
medium confidence · Kaneda anecdote; Landau recently deceased; describes past conversation
Stern may be considering a Ghostbusters 40th Anniversary edition (matching Metallica 40th) which could cannibalize secondary market value of existing Ghostbusters LEs.
medium confidence · Kaneda speculation based on 2024 being 40th anniversary and Metallica precedent
Jaws LE will hold value around $12,000-12,500 for a very long time due to game quality and ongoing Stern code updates.
medium confidence · Kaneda market analysis
Jersey Jack will not make more Elton John editions beyond the current CE run and should announce a cutoff date to prevent oversupply.

Notable Quotes

“Chris it looks even better in person the photos do not do it justice”
George Gomez @ ~00:03:00 — Endorsement of Godzilla Premium's visual appeal; suggests marketing advantage of in-person cabinet presence
“well, don't worry Tim Briggs is concerned and they don't want the LE owners to be further pissed off”
George Gomez (reported by Kaneda) @ ~00:05:30 — Reveals Stern's internal concern about LE owner backlash regarding Premium availability; Tim Briggs involvement in strategy
“Chris, what's all that stuff? ... would it shock you to know that I know the latest game from Jersey Jack is Guns and Roses?”
John Landau (reported by Kaneda) @ ~00:12:00 — Anecdotal evidence of IP holder familiarity with JJP operations; suggests Avatar connection plausibility
“You couldn't do it with Avatar. You could do it with Karate Kid. You could do it with Die Hard. You could do it with Matrix.”
Kaneda @ ~00:15:00 — Core argument against Avatar IP for pinball; narrative unfamiliarity as disqualifying factor
“I can foresee this company making a lot more Elton Johns I mean they piling up at distros and dealers.”
Kaneda @ ~00:20:00 — Market saturation concern for Jersey Jack Elton John; predicts demand collapse
“The moment they said they weren't making any more, that game went up in value instantly.”
Kaneda (regarding Willy Wonka CE) @ ~00:21:00 — Historical market precedent for artificial scarcity driving secondary market value
“People, they're making more Medieval Madnesses. Do not go anywhere near these inflated priced Royals.”
Kaneda @ ~00:33:00 — Direct warning to avoid overpriced limited editions due to known reissue plans
“I think Rick and Morty is a cooler game than both of those games ... the gameplay is atrocious.”
Kaneda — Mixed review highlighting theme/audiovisual appeal vs. poor underlying game design

Entities

Kanedaperson George Gomezperson Jeremy PackerpersonGregg FrerispersonKeith Elwinperson Mark SeidenpersonJack GuarnaripersonLeonard Abbasperson

Signals

?
machine_intel: George Gomez confirms Stern will produce Premium versions of Anniversary Editions and new game reruns as non-limited editions, signaling strategic shift in production tiers
high · Direct quote from George Gomez: 'it's amazing' re: Premium strategy; Tim Briggs concerned about LE owner backlash
?
product_strategy: Stern planning to release Premium editions alongside initial LE/Pro releases, with final code and foiled artwork, potentially as unlimited productions to mitigate FOMO
high · George Gomez conversation; Kaneda analysis of how this reshapes collector value dynamics
?
design_innovation: Stern investing in professional art direction (Jeremy Packer, Randy Martinez) moving away from 'Photoshop drag and drop' approach; Gregg Freris credited with bringing Packer on board
high · Kaneda praise for 5-6 year trajectory of improved art packages; specific mention of Gregg Freris retirement
?
leak_detection: Rumor of Jersey Jack Avatar: The Way of Water pinball in circulation; anecdotal evidence of IP holder connections (John Landau/Leonard Abbas friendship)
medium · Kaneda cites Jason Knapp's research; Landau anecdote about knowing unreleased JJP games; Guarnari's history of remaking existing franchises
?
product_concern: Avatar: Way of Water's weak cultural stickiness and audience recall suggest poor fit for narrative-driven pinball game; Kaneda predicts market underperformance
medium · Kaneda analysis: audience cannot name characters, recall memorable scenes, or sequence plot; comparison to Back to the Future, Die Hard, Karate Kid narrative clarity

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.082

0:00

What if I run away tomorrow? Would you find me in the stars? Welcome everybody to a very humid and rainy Friday here over at Kinnitus Pinball Podcast. We're going to talk a little bit about what's happening in the pinball world, what's around the corner, We're gonna discuss, you know, one of these rumored titles. I was reading my friend Jason Knapp's website. And we're gonna talk about Avatar, the way of water. Could this be a winning pinball game in the pinball marketplace? We're gonna talk about these Stern Godzilla premiums. Had a little chat with George Gomez this morning. Want to say congratulations on your retirement to Gregg Freris over at Stern Pinball. Atomicindeer, the man has really revolutionized the art packages over at Stern pinball and that is because of zombie yeti but still Greg brought him on board and we've had some of the most beautiful pinball machines over the last what like five six years since zombie yeti has been over at stern pinball and it's not just zombie yeti it's randy martinez it's everybody over there that has realized that photoshop drag and drop is not the way to go but we So when we think about what's happening right now, we've got this Godzilla premium and I asked George Gomez is the game on the line and the first thing he said to me is Chris it looks even better in person the photos do not do it justice and of course like I think every single pinball machine when you walk up to it it has way more of a in-person presence than any photos could ever communicate and that is why it's even hard sometimes to communicate and that is why it's even hard sometimes to communicate Unlike the trailer trailer principalsiyorum was an incoming in a caliber at the end of last season, not interesting, not much ining.

2:05

Seen a bag fell it coughed and Iolt it awkwardly catches and finally looks like a lollipop with the pinballруго after playing,lapping wynewegtyrouw andare için made some remaining bicycis and the furnaces satiny fighting from korcowe 1974heying I'm not trying to be mean to you if you have one, but you have to admit it. This thing is damn nice. Now I asked you out there, email me at Knapppinball at gmail dot com what you think of Godzilla Black and White Edition and I only got one email in. I think a lot of you guys just talk about it on Patreon, but those were the rules and And so I'm gonna read Jurgen from Austria's commentary on the game. Hey Chris, you asked us for our opinion about Black and White Godzilla so here is mine. I am very happy that Godzilla came out now in June so it's more likely that we will see Metallica Vault or whatever they call it on Spike 3 with a better light show and so on. I am interested in Metallica but the used market prices for Metallica Premium in Austria J mig Fernandez that he says is pretty nice for me but monsters is the coolest fitting and looking black and white and if Stern follows their way we will get tons of black and white addition over the years and it will get boring and not special. Create something magick not nice and black and white is nice, not more, not less.Thanks for recording this show, love ya kman. All right thanks Jurgen from Austria. Now look, here's the thing Stern's not going to just I'm not gonna make like black and white additions of all these games because they can. They're gonna make black and white additions where black and white makes sense. And so I think here's what's gonna happen. I think we're gonna get black and white Godzilla because you know, 70 years old, I think we're gonna get the black and white monsters which we have, and I think we're gonna get a black and white edition of King Kong. And now think about that, a black and white King Kong from Keith Elwyn, tell me that that That is not gonna remove money from your wallet. And what's awesome about Black and White King Kong is that's the original movie. I've been saying this. If Stern Pinball truly makes a throwback original King Kong pinball machine based on the original Black and White movie and does it right with the original Empire State Building top and you gotta have Kong climbing up that Empire StateBuilding. I shuddur wossa ka to have the airplanes goin around them, I mean I'san see right now the toppers just right there you know, you got the airplanes goin around Kong on the top of the Empire State Building and you can make it interactive with the damn game, how cool would that be you've got the airplanes goin up and when you hit them with kong's hand they fall down on the topper that would be insane obviously stern wont do that because that would actually be very creative and not flat plastic but i think we're going to see a black and white King Kong. 210 inherent 음 골� qokóni Futureuhền ergunoráARY scenery, A at ThneshamTV onnamorshtechnaysishimhoy Ergenalte, mimiimisallya, riitcaviivaspxdグання consciousness8s wisnigteraRin Johno Rosski, General and the thing I was thinking about is now that we've got these like really sexy premiums that are gonna come from Stern Pinball because remember now Every single anniversary edition or every single new special rerun of a game Stern's gonna do a premium and it's not gonna be limited. That was the one thing George Gomez said to me today He's like Chris. It's amazing and I was like, yeah, I kind of want one. He's like well, don't worry Tim Briggs is Essex and they don want the LE owners to be further pissed off but I was thinking about it does it even really matter like if they make really really nice premiums that could be what kills FOMO once and for all because if the like second version of the premium that comes out down the road comes out when the game has final code, foiled artwork on the sides and then they make adjustments because think about it like the black and white edition of Godzilla I think is the nicest version of the game and think about it too like how many of them do you think there are going to be? Are there going to be more than a thousand? If there's less than a thousand it instantly becomes more of a limited edition game than the LE of the game itself and it's interesting too because like think about it this game has been out for like over three years. Everyone has one that wants one. It's such a good game. It's been the number one game for so long. It's easily Keith Elwin's best Petz, at the time. And so even though they have this new beautiful version, I mean, what do you do about all the thousands of people that already have a Godzilla? Now you need to find pinball people that don't have one that want to spend like $9,600 on a stern and I don't know, like I don't know if you're going to sell like 2000 of these. Is there that much demand for new godzillas? See I think some of you guys out there that love Godzilla so much and you've modded your If you love your games and you love your Godzilla, I think you're looking at this one like, oh man, this thing would look insane with all the awesome mods out there for the game and a black and white topper. Like, this thing, when fully modded, I think is going to be one of the coolest Stern Pinball Machines of all time. And that's just my thoughts on it. All right, so that's what's happening over at Stern. Let's talk about Jersey Jack and Avatar. The way of water! I always say water weird, but I don't know, did I say it okay there? So would this thing work as a Jersey Jack game? And here's the thing, I was talking to Jason, I was like, one of the reasons why this rumor has been floating around for a while, I actually talked to a man that recently passed away, which is really a shame, John Landau, who is the executive producer of Avatar franchise and Titanic. He's basically like Cameron's right-hand man over at Firestorm, The pinball show was a production of the production company that made the movies. John Landau was friends with Leonard Abbas. And I know this because I was pitching John Landau and he was talking to me about what was behind me in my office at work. He's like, Chris, what's all that stuff? And I'm like, well, you know, I do this pinball podcast, this and that. He's like, would it shock you to know that I know the latest game from Jersey Jack is Guns and Roses? And I was like, well, how do you know that? He's like, well, Leonard's a friend of mine. It got me thinking that clearly, you know, the IP holders of Avatar are friends with the Abbas family. You put two and two together and we might have an Avatar pinball machine. We also know that Jack Guarnari is famous for making games that have already been made before. Hello Guns and Roses. Hello Lord of the Rings franchise. Now maybe Avatar. And you know Jack, like he's a sucker for like, if the movie is big, what could possibly go wrong? Although now looking at John Wick which is a multibillion dollar franchise, that things can go horribly wrong when it comes to creating demand in the pinball buying demographic and so here's the thing. I think if Marc Seidens game is Avatar 2, I don't think it will do well. And the reason I think that is I think the hype and the enthusiasm around the Avatar movies even though they made money, I think we all just went to see it out of curiosity But it didn't land. It didn't land culturally with people. And what I mean by that is it didn't become sticky. It didn't become a movie you wanted to go see four or five times in a row like the first one did. It wasn't something we hadn't seen before. The first one was, this wasn't. Remember after the first one came out, remember 3D became the rage everywhere, like everyone had a 3D TV, every movie was in 3D. It's like we wanted everything to be like Avatar. We were blown away by the effects What turns out, even when a movie is cue'd here, such pros are still allowed to talk about sail deep, while they can talk through and make and и the don't land on the mic. Vs. Where Press Media Right now, wee ee mbhajn jagee ye emergency I don't think it's a movie that we think about. If I were to ask you right now, name me four characters from the Avatar movie you couldn't. You don't know their names. Name me memorable scenes in the film that you think would be great in pinball form. You couldn't really do it. And the other thing when you think about a movie, you want to pick a movie in which we're so familiar with the storyline that we just get it. When you think of Back to the Future, you know the sequence of that story. You know what happens at the C Bar),pinball in the beginning, Marty and Doc in the parking lot, like the Iranians coming after them with the plutonium and then Marty jumping in the DeLorean and then he goes back to the future. Like I could sit most of you down and you could sequence for me what happens in that movie. You couldn't do it with Avatar. You could do it with Karate Kid. You could do it with Die Hard. You could do it with Matrix. And that's my point is if you're gonna make a pinball machine based on a narrative, you need to pick something that everybody just loves. I dont watch any only the reviewing images from Happy сыśhit熱innerłept españłoyówcz. Cis-Siant Truth Full Outotherapy I can foresee this company making a lot more Elton Johns I mean they piling up at distros and dealers They not gonna get any more orders for more Platinums and now that the CEs are done I think they done I don think there gonna be any more demand for this game And I think Jersey Jack if I was just giving them some marketing advice I think they should put a date by which orders for EltonJohn will be done and we will never make more I think they should do that Did they make all thousand CEs I think we might endlessly debate that I don know You know I really don know if they made a thousand of them If they did I could see a few hundred of them being stockpiled at JJP for sale at a later date And remember what happened with Willy Wonka CE The moment they said they weren Radical No split going footage Leo Public The first one is interesting. A Ghostbusters LE with the topper is now for sale in Illinois with all these awesome mods for $13,500. Now I have to say, this game with the topper at the height of the COVID frenzy was around $19,000 to $20,000. People were spending $3,000 to $4,000 alone on the Ghostbusters topper. I think people might be a little bit nervous because 2024 is the 40th anniversary of Ghostbusters. So we've got Metallica's 40th anniversary, we've got Ghostbusters, and now that Stern If Stern is going to do these anniversary Editions, who says they're not going to do a 40th of Ghostbusters? Now, we all know that a 40th of Ghostbusters would far outsell a 40th Anniversary of Metallica, but maybe they just do all three. Because if Stern is going to do these Anniversary Editions as premiums that they'll make forever, you might as well put Ghostbusters back on the line. Now, here's the really interesting part. Ghostbusters was the last ever DMD game. The game by Stern pinball so if they do it goes busters anniversary and they make it in LCD game and gosh I hope they would fix the flipper gap in a couple other things in the game and then they make more toppers that might be why we're seeing some of these goes busters up for sale. So would I buy a goes busters with all these accessories at 13 five I think it's a gamble because of what I just said but I do think that 13 five with a topper. For a Ghostbusters LE is a great price cuz you know why I know that because one game below that is another Ghostbusters LE for sale for $17,500 and I don't even think it has the topper but I think that might be in Canada so we have to adjust that for US dollars but still it just goes to show you Ghostbusters LEs they're available if you want one wait and see people. Here's a crazy one that's not gonna sell. Pirates of the Caribbean, collector's edition. This game's always for sale. For a game they only made $200 and it's a rare collectible, it's always available. There's always someone with the Pirates trying to get $30,000. And here we are again. Timmy B over in Bentonville, Arizona is trying to get $29,900 for his Pirates CE. Good luck, Timmy. You're not gonna get it. That was The Pirate CE I think a Pirate CE is much more south I think 20 to 23 at most is where I would be with the Pirates and the reason why too is this gang is I just Think Jersey Jack's got so many better games coming and I think the future games at JJP are not gonna make these older ones Go up in value. I don't I think people are gonna realize Games like pirates were like overly complex The code was way too convoluted and the gameplay is not the best. Alright, now we got Big Lebowski in a box for $13.9. So here's the thing, you know, Big Lebowski's, they keep making them and I don't know how many they've made in total, but it's now a game you can easily get. You don't have to wait a year. They haven't gone up in value. They're $13.5 from Dutch Pinball and this is nice to see. I mean, this is the market correcting itself. The Ghostbusters is an example. A game that was $19 was ludicrous. Atomicumbing

19:36

Now here's one and sale pending, the only game really holding value. JawsLE for $12,500 or best offer and it is pending sale. Not surprised by that. I think JawsLE is gonna hold around 12 grand for a very long time. Great game. It's a great game and what Stern's doing to it is making it even better every single month. Great job on that game, even if the shark does not eat the ball. It's a great game. Speaking of crack pipe, Big Bang Bar! For let me tell you everybody stay away from these games They gonna remake more Big Bang Bars It not a great game It not a great game to play If you gonna spend 32 grand and you just want a beautiful game go get one of those like Netherland Magic Girls that have been fixed way prettier than Big Bang Bar and more rare So like it is what it is but I would never go near that game Another great example of this is Introond and allada sparkming included Gin and rocks reflecting phiANT planning The fatsrisk at B dar noon Germany I Mona precursor Th bel schoolmate model thirsty sist Lands Emirati Net dem Ο 다들 displaying naticś їiśla rșörtlÍiné Que cógoġĸľît� åršĵhŲţ peţès Only one of these past longo gu셨orovñaidcer subtleč números As games like Stranger Things LE, that was a $8500-9000 LE when it first came out. So the person who bought it back in the day, not unhappy, people are pricing it right where current LEs are. And that is kind of what I would do, right? Because it's not like Stern's had any real innovation. These are all Spike 2 games with an LCD screen. And I would argue Stranger Things as one of the coolest moments in all of pinball when the UV kit gets turned on. And so think about it. I would much rather buy a Stranger Things LE with under 400 plays with the UV kit for $13,000 than a freaking John Wick LE for $13,000. If you buy John Wick LE for $13,000, it's going to be worth $8,000 in six months. If you buy Stranger Things LE for $13,000, I think it holds that value for a very long time. I was talking to Ed Robertson. Ed, thank you for reaching out. He's like, Chris, people need to stop thinking about these games as investments. I'm not saying that I'm wrong, but for people like you, it doesn't matter. But for the rest of us, where we don't have residuals coming in because we can't write music like you can, and we're not as talented as you, we're just blowhard podcasters, it matters to us. Like, what we buy a game for and what we might be able to get back on it matters to us. And I just want to remind everybody that Ed Robertson has a supreme pinball machine. How did you get it, Ed? How did you get it? I want to have that relationship with Stern. I want your supreme machine. I want you, Ed. You got enough money. I want you to sell me your supreme machine for what you paid for it. And here's the deal. If you do, Ed, I promise you I won't sell it. I'll put it in my house and I will sign a contract that if I do sell it, You get to set the price. How's that for a deal Mr. Robertson? Alright, here's another one. Guardians LE, $14,000 or best offer. That is a few thousand dollars too much. A Medieval Madness Royal Edition for $17,250. That is not going to sell for $17,250. People, they're making more Medieval Madnesses. Do not go anywhere near these inflated priced Royals. Amazing Metallica, Master of Puppets, $16,000. It's not happening. You are not going to be able to I think this game is the cutoff. And even there, I don't think you're finding any buyers. I really don't. I don't think you're finding buyers. Here's a funny one. JawsLE, 75 plays for $15,000. Like, go, go f yourself. Whoever has this game listed for $15,000. Like, go f yourself. Like, we just saw one sit for a couple weeks for $12,500. This is the thing is like yeah you can ask this price but when you ask a price like this just go F yourself because come on then you're just being greedy you're not gonna find a buyer for Jaws Ali at 15 grand. Rick and Morty with a butter cabinet for $12,200. You know I don't know I really don't know. You know what's interesting about this game is like that's kind of where Texas Chainsaw is with the butter cabinet and Looney Tunes. I think Rick and Morty is a cooler game than both of those games. I actually still have a little bit of a sore spot for Rick and Morty because of how awesome the callouts are. And it's just a kinda cool game. Like the music is cool, the callouts are cool, the gameplay is atrocious. I mean that's the issue with Rick and Morty. I mean it's just atrocious gameplay. So I would stay away from it. James Bond new in box with a topper. Wow, isn't the topper like a thousand dollars? I don't know I think you can get James Bond L.E.'s for much cheaper than that now. Here's what's funny. Here's another Elvira. What's wrong with people? So we just saw the Elvira 40th for $15,500. Here's another one for $18,500 new in box. Like how dumb can you be? Like how dumb can you be? How are you gonna try to sell a game where there's another one of it like a comparable game the exact same game for sale? Made this SpielS fee. For $14,500. I mean, I mean, come on guys, just, just take out the crack pipe, take a big hit and lower that by $3,000. Here's an interesting one that doesn't come up very often, but Tron LE, right? Herald it as one of the most collectible games ever. $17,751 for a Tron LE. Again, I wouldn't touch it. I wouldn't touch it. And just below that, we'll end on this one. A supreme new in box. For fifty thousand five hundred dollars. Just think about that for a minute. Fifty thousand dollars for a Supreme Pinball Machine. Ed, sell me yours for what you paid for it and we will be Supreme Bloodbrothers for the rest of our lives. Everybody have a great weekend. Come hang out at the Saturday Morning Spectacular. Have a great Friday night. Drink some sake and let's have some fun in pinball this week. Later. Get in a coffin! Get into a picture of a pin, scarred myself with all my strength and strength in my health which I beloved the most. I also remember my mum and my sonars until she thoughtful Héliaaload to be my mistress. Pinball passaisee Pinball ozone