Episode 885: "Two Spooky Better Than One?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 23s·analyzed·Dec 7, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.045

TL;DR

Spooky dual-theme reveal amid broader skepticism about theme viability and market saturation at elevated pricing.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Spooky Pinball's dual-theme reveal (Looney Tunes and Texas Chainsaw Massacre) and addresses rumors about Stern acquiring a Spider-Man license alongside a Guardians of the Galaxy remake. He expresses skepticism about market demand for these themes at current pricing, criticizes Jersey Jack Pinball's pricing strategy with Elton John, and predicts American Pinball will face severe challenges with upcoming unlicensed and sequel titles. Kaneda also emphasizes Keith Elwin's outsized value to Stern and the broader shift in pinball market expectations toward fewer, higher-quality releases.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball renewed Guardians of the Galaxy license with Disney and secured a Spider-Man license as part of the deal
low confidence · Kaneda states this as rumor: 'I heard that Stern Pinball, because they are remaking Guardians of the Galaxy right now, I heard that when they went Tee'd Off Disney and they renewed the license for Guardians, I heard that Disney wanted them Tee'd Off take another license and sign another deal. And I'm hearing that the license that they grabbed was no other than Spider-Man.'
Spooky Pinball's next game is Evil Dead as a solo title, not a dual-theme machine with Looney Tunes and Texas Chainsaw Massacre
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Their next game is Evil Dead will be the game that is designed as a solo game It won't be sharing play fields'
Spooky will produce 888 units each of Looney Tunes and Texas Chainsaw Massacre dual-theme machines
medium confidence · Kaneda asks: 'when I put up on Facebook, are you excited that they're going Tee'd Off make 888 of Looney Tunes and 888 Texas Chainsaw Massacres?'
Keith Elwin is helping Jack Danger design his next Stern Pinball game
low confidence · Kaneda: 'if the rumor I heard is true. You know who's helping Jack Danger on his The Games a little bit? Keith Elwin, and that's amazing.'
American Pinball's next release will be a Barry Osler tribute/food truck game as a single-level title
low confidence · Kaneda: 'The next game is going Tee'd Off be a tribute to Barry O. I'm hearing it's some sort of version of his food truck game. I'm hearing It's a single level game.'
Elton John is not selling well, worse than The Godfather, and will not achieve secondary market appreciation like Pirates of the Caribbean
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'if what I'm hearing from distributors is that this game is not even selling as well as The Godfather, it's going Tee'd Off be a really rough ride for this game' and 'I just don't think it's ever going Tee'd Off get there because as beautiful as the game is, I'm just not sure this is a theme that people really want.'
Jaws will be revealed sometime in December 2023

Notable Quotes

“Jaws is not going Tee'd Off be an interesting test. Jaws is going Tee'd Off sell great. We all know it. It's Keith freaking Elwin. He's on a different level.”
Kaneda @ ~18:00 — Establishes Keith Elwin as the most bankable designer in modern pinball with unquestionable market pull
“I would say he's worth close Tee'd Off a million dollars a year. Do you know how much money he brings into Stern Pinball, him alone and his designs, I would say he's worth close Tee'd Off that.”
Kaneda @ ~28:00 — Asserts Keith Elwin's commercial value as approximately $1 million annually to Stern based on game sales volume
“That game alone will put American Pinball out of business if they weren't backed by a rich guy who has another company that makes chips.”
Kaneda @ ~45:00 — Criticizes American Pinball's next title as commercially non-viable, suggesting company survival depends on external funding
“The best part about pinball right now, people, is all of these The Games have Tee'd Off be great or we're not buying them. I mean, it's just that simple.”
Kaneda @ ~55:00 — Articulates market consolidation: at current $12k-15k pricing, only exceptional games will sell
“I don't think that 12 Tee'd Off $15,000 is like really overpriced if they get themes like The Matrix and themes like Harry Potter and themes like Top Gun. But yes, nobody wants Tee'd Off spend $12,000 or $15,000 on Elton John, on Toy Story 4, and on The Godfather.”
Kaneda @ ~40:00 — Identifies theme/IP selection as the core market constraint at premium pricing, not price itself
“Every week, Elton John hype will get quieter and quieter. And if what I'm hearing from distributors is that this game is not even selling as well as The Godfather, it's going Tee'd Off be a really rough ride for this game.”
Kaneda @ ~38:00 — Indicates Elton John experiencing sustained weak pre-order/distributor momentum compared to other recent JJP releases
“I'm betting my show's credibility. All of those things are going Tee'd Off be in the game. And we're going Tee'd Off see the game any day now.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith ElwinpersonStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany American Pinballcompany Jack Dangerperson

Signals

?
business_signal: American Pinball's commercial viability severely threatened by upcoming releases (Barry Osler tribute, Whitewater 2, Cuphead); company dependent on external non-pinball funding
high · Kaneda: 'That game alone will put American Pinball out of business if they weren't backed by a rich guy who has another company that makes chips' and 'these people think it's 1994' regarding Whitewater 2.
?
event_signal: Kaneda announces potential boycott/counter-event at Texas Pinball Festival in response to undisclosed podcast community controversy and cancellation attempt
medium · Kaneda: 'I might do a party at Texas Pinball Festival. I might have everybody come over Tee'd Off Peter Perry's Steakhouse at exactly the time the Twippies Awards begin' and reference to 'attempt Tee'd Off cancel Kaneda's Pinball Podcast.'
?
design_philosophy: American Pinball designer expectations misaligned with modern engineering standards; sequel/unlicensed strategy reflects outdated 1990s manufacturing assumptions
medium · Kaneda: 'I guarantee you, there is no way American Pinball will design a game that has more in it than Whitewater 1. because Bally Williams knew what they were doing and the Bally Williams engineers were the best in the world... these designers stood on top of those engineers and it's those engineers that made these designers great.'
?
event_signal: Spooky Pinball game reveal scheduled for following day (tomorrow) with potential for announcement of dual-theme specifications and final details
high · Kaneda: 'Obviously, I'm going Tee'd Off do another show when we see Spooky Pinball's Game tomorrow.'
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Topics

Spooky Pinball dual-theme reveal (Looney Tunes / Texas Chainsaw Massacre)primaryStern Pinball Spider-Man and Guardians of the Galaxy license rumorsprimaryKeith Elwin's market value and influence on Stern Pinball game successprimaryMarket saturation and theme viability at current $12k-15k pricingprimaryJersey Jack Pinball's premature pricing strategy and Elton John underperformanceprimaryAmerican Pinball's unsustainable roadmap and predicted commercial failureprimaryJaws game reveal timing and feature rumorssecondaryPodcast controversy and community cancellation attemptsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda expresses skepticism about upcoming game themes (Looney Tunes/Texas Chainsaw Massacre unlikely to sell well), severe criticism of Jersey Jack Pinball's pricing mistakes and weak sales, harsh condemnation of American Pinball's roadmap as commercially non-viable, and doubt about market viability at premium pricing. Positive sentiment reserved for Keith Elwin's design talent and Stern's strategic patience. Underlying tone: industry-wide concern about pricing, theme selection, and market contraction.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.061

I like that you're broken, broken like me. Maybe that makes me a fool. I like that you're lonely, lonely like me. I could be lonely with you. Welcome everybody to the undefeated Twippy Champion who will never lose his trophies now Sitting on the Iron Throne all by himself is Kaneda. I'm your host. We're going to talk about what a whirlwind day it was yesterday. I was not expecting Spooky to reveal two new titles. I wasn't expecting for This Week in Pinball to cancel all the content creators. But we're going to talk mostly about pinball. I don't want to even get into the drama. You guys know why this show is number one. We have more people who have signed up for this show over the past week than left the show. We have record numbers of subscribers. So thank you very much. And I'll just say this. Nobody stands up for cancel culture. You can't remove Canada's ability to be recognized as number one. And we're going to turn this lemon into lemonade. I might do a party at TPF. I might have everybody come over to Perry's Steakhouse at exactly the time the Twippies begin and have the greatest pinball media mixer anyone has ever seen. And so, yes, we will be boycotting the shows and we won't be talking about it. I think the move was lame. I think everyone thinks it's lame. So let's get right to pinball. So first, let's just rip the band-aid off a rumor I've been waiting to tell each and every one of you. I heard that Stern Pinball, because they are remaking Guardians of the Galaxy right now, I heard that when they went to Disney and they renewed the license for Guardians, I heard that Disney wanted them to take another license and sign another deal. And I'm hearing that the license that they grabbed was no other than Spider-Man. Now, let's think about this for a minute. Does that mean they're going to make more Spider-Mans like Steve Ritchie's Spider-Man? I don't think so. Why would they make more of a Steve Ritchie game? Maybe they're trying to sell Steve Ritchie games against Steve Ritchie, which is kind of crazy. I mean, I could see Stern maybe pulling a move like that. But here's what I'm hoping it is. Because I'm hoping it's not like live-action Spider-Man. I'm hoping that they got the license to make Into the Spider-Verse. If you have not seen these Into the Spider-Verse movies, they're amazing. They're absolutely amazing. They are better than any other Spider-Man movie combined. I mean, the last Spider-Man was good where they all got together. What was that, Homecoming? I mean, that was a great movie. If they made a pinball machine with all of the Spider-Man characters over the years, I think that would be incredible. I can't see Stern doing that, right? They've been really cheap on getting the assets. But Into the Spider-Verse would be different. It's animated. They just have to pay the voice actors. They don't have to pay like celebrities to get their likeness. So I'm really hoping this could be into the Spider-Verse. And that movie is a trilogy. So I'm hoping if they do do it, they wait for the third installment and they put everything into it because both movies are just phenomenal. So will that happen? Now, look, with all these Stern rumors, let's just go down the list again. We've got Journey Pinball. We've got John Wick. We've got Jaws, which we know is coming out. We've got maybe Pokemon. What else are we hearing that Stern might be doing? We had Indiana Jones was in the mix, but I think they shelved that game when the movie didn't do very well. You know, so there's just a lot I'm hearing is happening over at Stern. We're also hearing that Keith Elwin is going to do two games in 2024. So a lot on Stern's radar. Now, look, I don't really think Stern has a theme that's just like, oh, my God, I can't wait to give them my money. Oh, yeah, I forgot. Dungeons and Dragons. Where are the themes like Back to the Future? Where's Ghostbusters? Where's Die Hard? Where are the themes that are more take my money now? I know a lot of people would rather have Beetlejuice than John Wick. A lot of people would rather have Pee-Wee's Big Adventure than Dungeons and Dragons. A lot of people would want to have He-Man and not something else. So we shall see what happens. With Stern in this new factory and Stern making hundreds of games a week, they're going to have to pick themes you want. And Jaws is not going to be an interesting test. Jaws is going to sell great. We all know it. It's Keith freaking Elwin. He's on a different level. When his games come out, everyone else is running for cover. Why do you think we're seeing all these reveals right now? Everybody knows that Keith Elwin's Jaws is about to drop. That's why Jersey Jack revealed Elton John early. They were worried about Jaws. I mean, the games were not rolling off the line. They didn't want to get scooped by Jaws. Why do we think Spooky Pinball is showing a game right now? Now let's talk about Spooky's reveal. They basically revealed one of the worst kept secrets in pinball, that their next game is a dual theme game. I've said it on my podcast before. I've said it on Facebook before. It was going to be Looney Tunes and probably Texas Chainsaw Massacre or Evil Dead I here to tell you right now Their next game is Evil Dead Evil Dead will be the game that is designed as a solo game It won be sharing playfields So if you rather have an Evil Dead and not a Looney Tunes or a Texas Chainsaw Massacre you are most likely going to get that some point. Probably they'll reveal it in December of next year, right around the time when Back to the Future will be hitting the pinball world and when Pulp Fictions might actually be shipping to customers. So let's talk about it, though. when I put up on Facebook, are you excited that they're going to make 888 of Looney Tunes and 888 Texas Chainsaw Massacres? Most of you seem to be more excited for Looney Tunes, which is kind of funny. Now look, Looney Tunes has a lot of great characters. I'm not going to go down the list of all of them. Bugs, Wildy Coyote, Tasmanian Devil, Dappy Duck. There is a lot to love about the Looney Tunes universe. It's a lot of campy humor, but I'm also a 47-year-old man, and I've been saying this for a while. Men 40 to 60, you'll walk into a bar. Can they geek out over Looney Tunes? Will they geek out over Texas Chainsaw Massacre? For the pinball buying demographic, is this where I would land if I wanted to sell 888 games in the current pinball marketplace. You know, times have changed. I don't think people are going to run at these games the way they ran at Ultraman and Halloween. Pinball machines are really expensive now. People are losing more money on every single pinball machine they buy. It's getting to the point where you really only want to buy a game you're gonna keep forever or for a very long time. The notion of opening up a game and losing two to $3,000 in a year, that's not smart and everyone is starting to get burned by that. And look, I still think Scooby-Doo is a better theme than these two themes. I think there's more like universal appeal for Scooby-Doo. I think Scooby-Doo has kind of lasted longer in culture than even Looney Tunes for a lot of people. Scooby-Doo reminds me of like Ninja Turtles. It's kind of just like always been around. But it's also like when you make themes like this, you know, Looney Tunes, Ninja Turtles, you're really banking on having enough man children out there who are willing to put their masculinity aside and buy these kinds of themes, you know, and that's just the thing is like, does the kitten you really want it? And that's what they're going for. And so we're going to see the games tomorrow. Do I think these are going to be like day one sellouts? I think we're in a new pinball market now. I think a lot of people are on the sidelines just waiting to see what happens. They didn't sell 1,100 Labyrinth games. They're not going to sell 888 Looney Tunes or Texas Chainsaw Massacre games. No matter how beautiful the artwork is, no matter how much is on those games, I just think we're in a different pinball market. Now, also this. I'm not a fan of this dual design thing where one game gets two designs. I know they have two engineers, two this, two that, two everything. Then why not just make two games? Maybe they will be two separate games. So that would be interesting, right? We don't know for sure if it's going to be the same layout like Ultraman and Halloween. So, you know, when I look at all those twos, maybe these are just two separate games. And maybe they're just going to make two games at once. And because the themes are so radically different, you know, they're not really going to cannibalize each other. And that would be smart. That would be cool. We haven't seen anyone do that. But I tend to think it's going to be more like Ultraman in Halloween. I tend to think what they're going to do is change some of the sculpts and some of the mechs might be different, but it'll be the same kind of mech happening in the same area of the play field. So for example, there might be a bookcase that opens up in this game and in the other game, it might be something else. It might be the door to a house or a cabin. I don't know. So we will see what happens when we see the game tomorrow. So a lot more to talk about this tomorrow when we actually see the game. And look, we're at December, people. We know that Jaws is going to be out in January. That means does Stern reveal the game to the world sometime in December? I think they might. I think they might. There's no rush. You know, this always tends to happen. Stern either goes early like they did last year in like February where they went before TPF and they brought out Foo Fighters in front of everybody else's plans and they kind of screwed over everybody. Now we're seeing a different approach. They're letting everybody show their cards while they rerun games like Jurassic Park and Elvira and games like Stranger Things. So Stern was really smart. They kind of came at us with games they know people love. They did more runs of those games. They don't care people if those things sell out or not because they probably all sold through to distributors. So it's going to be distributors sitting on all those unsold Blood Kiss editions or Jurassic Park 30th editions. It's not like those games didn't leave Stern and Stern didn't get paid. But everybody knows the big payday the big juggernaut is right around the corner It has been funny to see how little people covered my Jaws rumors Only Jason Knapp and a handful of people talked about the actual rumors that I put out into the world I am betting my show's credibility. All of those things are going to be in the game. And we're going to see the game any day now. And it's really exciting. Now, look, the thing that's still keeping everybody a little bit calm is $13,000. dollars. You have to work really hard to get these modern sterns. But I think 2024, you know, not even getting into like knowing everything that's going to happen next year. I think 2024 is going to be a year that's two titles. I think Jaws and Back to the Future are going to be the two games that really, really bookend the year that is going to have the most excitement, the most enthusiasm. Now, look, we're going to get another game from Jack Danger. And if the rumor I heard is true. You know who's helping Jack Danger on his games a little bit? Keith Elwin, and that's amazing. That's how it should be. Like everybody over at Stern, whether it's John Borg, whether it's Brian Eddy, whether it's Jack Danger, if you have Keith Elwin in the house and you're designing a game and he's the most popular pinball designer in the world, you know, you probably would want to knock on his door every day and say, hey, Keith, what do you think of this? Keith, what do you think of this shot? Hey, Keith, can you just spend some time on my whitewood and maybe give me some suggestions on what you would do? I mean, that's what I would be doing. This man has the Midas touch right now when it comes to pinball design. Having Keith Elwin in your dugout is a huge value to Stern Pinball. It's almost to the point now, and I mean this when I say it, some of these pinball designers should be making close to seven figures by now. Like Keith Elwin, I would say he's worth a million dollars a year. Do you know how much money he brings into Stern Pinball, him alone and his designs, I would say he's worth close to that. Because remember, when they sell thousands of these games from $7,000 to $13,000 a pop, we're talking tens and tens of millions of dollars on a single title. And I just think he's earned it. I mean, I really, really do. And I don't know if Stern is like Jersey Jack when I interviewed Jack, like everybody gets a bonus depending on how well the game sells. So I don't know if that's the case at Stern Pinball. The tricky thing is, right, it's like, it's not just the designer. I get it. It's the artist. It's the coder. It's the software people. Everybody has an important part to play in a game being successful, right? So if Godzilla came out and the software was absolutely garbage, the game's not going to sell thousands of units. And we've seen games where even though the theme was good, the code might be bad or the design might be bad or the artwork might be bad and that might be the reason why people didn't buy the game. So yeah, you know, maybe the whole team should just share in on a bonus, but it'd be nice. It'd be nice to know that like if this game reaches this threshold, there's going to be a million dollar bonus that the entire design team gets to share. I think that would be the way to do it. All right, so we've got Jaws right around the corner. We've got Elton John. Jack said it's shipping to customers. Do we believe Jack? I'm not sure we believe him. Are we going to see unboxings next week? I mean, that's really the telltale sign on whether Jack was telling the truth or not. Will customers start unboxing Elton John? My fear with Elton John, it's the same thing with Galactic Tank Force. It's like the more time that goes on, the less there will be FOMO, the less the hype will be. Like every week, Elton John hype will get quieter and quieter. And if what I'm hearing from distributors is that this game is not even selling as well as The Godfather, it's going to be a really rough ride for this game. and I don't think this game is going to have this like second life Pirates of the Caribbean, like four years from now, Elton John's will be selling for $25,000. I just don't think it's ever going to get there because as beautiful as the game is, I'm just not sure this is a theme that people really want. And there's also just not a ton in the game. It is a beautiful game. It is like owning an Elton John jukebox that you get to play. But mechanically, I'm just not sure people are seeing 12 to 15,000. And then you look at a game like Pirates and it's packed. Like it is probably the last loaded game we're ever gonna get from Jersey Jack Pinball based on the last three releases. Like things have been much more barren. And again, the pinball market has just changed, you know? And I also do believe this. I don't think that 12 to $15,000 is like really overpriced if they get themes like The Matrix and themes like Harry Potter and themes like Top Gun. But yes, nobody wants to spend $12,000 or $15,000 on Elton John, on Toy Story 4, and on The Godfather. And so we're going to see what happens at Jersey Jack. They're basically a company where their themes need to catch up with their pricing. And that's not a good thing, right? And they really should have waited. Think about it. They should have waited to raise their prices until the time in which they had a theme where the theme justified the price increase And by doing it early they basically been giving people like three paper cuts in a row and it doesn't feel good. And it stings if you're a Jersey Jack fan and you go in on any of these games because you're just going to lose so much money. All right. So that's Jersey Jack. I think Elton John is a little dead on arrival. It's a shame. I think if they lowered the price, they would move units, but they're not going to do it. And then I don't know what you do. And then you look at David Fix going on all these podcasts and doing all these interviews this week, being like, I'm going to clear up the rumors about my company. And he basically just confirms what the rumors were, that the next two games are going to be unlicensed pins. And then the third game is a license. And basically we all know what it is. The next game is going to be a tribute to Barry O. I'm hearing it's some sort of version of his food truck game. I'm hearing It's a single level game. Okay, that's not going to sell. That is not going to sell. That game alone will put American Pinball out of business if they weren't backed by a rich guy who has another company that makes chips. It's not even a pinball company that is funding a pinball company. So that would put them out of business. Galactic Tank Force would put them out of business. You know, he's still trying to sell the $17,500 version of a game nobody wants the $11,000 version of. So I don't care how many interviews he does or how many shows he does. he's not going to convince people to make that move and hand over that money. And so that game is dead on arrival. Then we're going to get Whitewater 2, Dennis Nordman's Whitewater 2. And it's like, once again, these people think it's 1994. It's not. Like these games are not going to sell. There is not the nostalgia for another Whitewater. And I guarantee you, there is no way American Pinball will design a game that has more in it than Whitewater 1. because Bally Williams knew what they were doing and the Bally Williams engineers were the best in the world, the best there ever was, the best there ever will be. And I think everybody now knows that these designers stood on top of those engineers and it's those engineers that made these designers great. Look what happens when you're not working with those engineers. You get games like Galactic Tank Force. Like where's the mechanical magic in that game? And do we really give Dennis Nordman another chance after he, with his tank game, basically would have bankrupted the company. And so then after that, we're going to get Ryan McQuaid's game, which is going to be Cuphead. And then you're talking about, what, three games right away that are a hard pass for mostly everybody out there. And then you've got a company like Barrels of Fun, and everyone's expecting stuff like Fifth Element, stuff like The Goonies, like they're actually making stuff that people want and themes that have some fan base attached to them. And so if you're going to go at a company like Barrels of Fun with unlicensed Barry O games, You might as well just declare your company done and you're over. Like there's no room for this anymore in pinball. The best part about pinball right now, people, is all of these games have to be great or we're not buying them. I mean, it's just that simple. At these prices, nobody's going to buy stuff unless they want to bolt it to the floor or you just really enjoy losing money. Like you really enjoy losing money. And it's not about enjoying pinball because who wants to buy a Venom for $13,000 and then in a month, they see the game for $9,000 for sale in L.E. of Venom. So do you feel good that you lost $4,000 in like one month on your purchase? So that's where we're at, everybody. It's going to be a crazy year for pinball. It's going to be a crazy December. Obviously, I'm going to do another show when we see Spooky's Game tomorrow. Thank you, everybody, for your support. You know, look, all the drama, all the drama goes away when we just talk about pinball. That's the thing that people don't get about this show. I'm not doing shows like harassing people, threatening people. It's not negative. It's always right to the point. What's happening in pinball this week? What happened today? What's relevant? What's on people's minds? That's what this show captures. That's why there's like 684 of you who have subscribed. Some of you are just hanging out on Patreon, but thank you guys so much. I want to thank those of you that increased your donations this week after the last attempt to cancel Canada has failed once again. I super appreciate when people bump up their donations. And remember that number, that number just burns the haters. So bring on more friends. We're close to 700. It's amazing. We're going to have so many great shows coming up. Everybody have a great Thursday and we will be back with our feelings on these two spooky games when we see them tomorrow. Have a great day. Later. me. Maybe that makes me a fool. Like that you're lonely, lonely like me. I could be lonely with you. you