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The Pinball Show Ep 120 Part 1: The Meat

The Pinball Show·podcast_episode·52m 32s·analyzed·Jan 3, 2023
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TL;DR

Stern leadership transition underway; Bond 60th LE coming with direct sales model disrupting dealer pricing

Summary

Zach Minney and Dennis Creasel discuss major Stern Pinball leadership changes (Gary Stern stepping down as CEO, Seth Davis becoming full-time CEO, CFO Michael O'Donnell retiring), the impending James Bond 60th Anniversary limited edition reveal (500 units globally, January 3rd), and pricing strategy dynamics as Stern begins selling directly to consumers via their Insider program, disrupting traditional dealer pricing models.

Key Claims

  • Gary Stern stepping down as CEO but remaining as chairman of the board and controlling shareholder

    high confidence · Zach Minney discussing Stern Pinball organizational changes

  • Seth Davis moves from interim/trial CEO to full-time permanent CEO at Stern Pinball

    high confidence · Zach and Dennis discussing the integration of Seth Davis over the past year

  • Michael O'Donnell retiring after 35 years as CFO; Nick Parfit replacing him

    high confidence · Dennis noting this news hasn't been widely discussed but represents significant transition

  • James Bond 60th Anniversary LE will have 500 units globally (typical split ~250 US/250 international)

    high confidence · Zach Minney detailing Bond 60th reveal logistics and production numbers

  • Bond 60th Anniversary will NOT have traditional dealer seminar; dealers get info ~1 hour before public reveal

    high confidence · Zach explaining new Bond 60th reveal format differs from past LE launches

  • Stern selling 'a handful' of Bond 60th Anniversary units directly via Insider Connected program

    high confidence · Zach and Dennis discussing direct Stern sales creating unofficial pricing pressure

  • Bond 60th Anniversary pricing will be 'called for' (dealer-set) rather than MSRP-fixed like Elvira 40th

    high confidence · Zach noting changed pricing model from previous limited editions

  • George Gomez recorded a Christmas message for Dennis Creasel's Deadpool Premium gift

    high confidence · Audio recording played during episode from George Gomez

Notable Quotes

  • “I'll have to get a spinal fusion at some point, listener. for those of you that know the difference between all the different surgeries for the backs.”

    Zach Minney @ ~13:00 — Personal health update; context for his availability and work capacity

  • “I think the 500s still sell out really no matter what happens with the pricing. But what I think it does is it gives people a context, a number that they're going to compare it to.”

    Dennis Creasel @ ~45:00 — Analysis of how Stern's direct pricing becomes de facto MSRP despite no official MSRP being set

  • “I think Stern sets the floor whether they mean to or not. I think they end up saying the floor.”

    Dennis Creasel @ ~48:00 — Key insight about market dynamics of direct sales disrupting traditional dealer pricing

  • “people have very short memories for shit that they really want... I don't think it hurts anybody. I don't think it hurts a dealer when he jacked up the prices”

    Zach Minney @ ~55:00 — Cynical take on consumer memory and pricing integrity in LE market

  • “It's the game that I would take to a desert island with me I'll tell you that right now”

    George Gomez (recorded message) @ ~30:00 — George Gomez's endorsement of Deadpool Premium as exemplary design

  • “there may be some structural decisions. I don't think he's going to change on the cornerstones and stuff, but there might be some shuffling around.”

    Dennis Creasel @ ~20:00 — Speculation about how new CEO Seth Davis might restructure team organization

  • “Second place is the first non-winner.”

    Zach Minney @ ~18:00 — Comedic reframing of contest results; becomes recurring terminology in episode

Entities

Gary SternpersonSeth DavispersonMichael O'DonnellpersonNick ParfitpersonKeith ElwinpersonGeorge GomezpersonDave PetersonpersonDennis CreaselpersonZach Minneyperson

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: Stern Pinball implementing direct-to-consumer sales via Insider Connected program, selling small quantity (~5-15 units) of Bond 60th Anniversary LE directly, disrupting traditional dealer-set pricing model

    high · Zach: 'Stern is actually...they're going to be selling a handful direct' via 'paid program'; changed from Elvira 40th 'dealer sets the price' model

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Cynicism about consumer memory in pricing integrity; evidence that buyers will purchase from dealers even after bad pricing behavior if product is desirable

    medium · Zach: 'people have very short memories for shit that they really want...I don't think it hurts anybody' when dealers raise prices above MSRP

  • ?

    design_philosophy: George Gomez views Deadpool Premium as exemplary design worthy of desert island selection; specific mention of disco mode and ball spin effect as cool mechanical element

    high · George Gomez recorded message: 'It's the game that I would take to a desert island with me I'll tell you that right now'

  • $

    market_signal: Bond 60th Anniversary LE production: 500 units globally with 'called for' (dealer-set) pricing rather than manufacturer MSRP; no dealer seminar, 1-hour advance notice before public reveal

    high · Zach detailing logistics: 'There's going to be 500 games globally...called for pricing...dealers not seeing this until public sees it'

  • ?

    business_signal: Potential restructuring under new CEO Seth Davis including possible shift to fixed team assignments (designer + consistent programmer pairings) rather than flexible project-based teams

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.158

0:00
Warning, the following episode contains adult language and screaming goats. Listener discretion is advised.
0:12
The Pinball Network is online. Launching the Pinball Show. Happy New Year! This week Dennis and I talk about backbreakers, non-winners, Stern Pinball production updates for Q3 and Q4 of 2023. Leadership changes at Stern Pinball. James Bond's 60th anniversary edition details. Discussing limited games versus cost projections. In part two of episode 120, our predictions for what's coming in 2023 from each manufacturer. In part three of this week's episode, we discuss the pinball awards season. And big old changes coming to the third annual Crystals, where this year your voice matters and you can win a lot of prizes, as well as a very special 2022 pinball market trends. Y'all, the pinball show is so big this week, we can't contain it. It's mutating. I'm going to die. Why does it have three legs? Wait, that's not a leg. Don't temper your expectations. Let's figure it out. Should old acquaintance be forgot and never brought to mind? Should old acquaintance be forgot And the days of old lands end For old lands Pinball is a game of spill For old lands For some, it's a passion and a lifestyle We'll take a cup of kind It's time for the Pinball Show It's pinball with personality.
2:11
Oh, I'm so happy to be here because this is the pinball show. This is my everything. I love this podcast, and I love that we're in episode 120. My name is Zach Minney. I'm the host alongside our other host, Dennis Creasel from the Eclectic Gamers Podcast. And, you know, just an all-around swell guy. How's it going, Dennis? Oh, it's going pretty well. Here we are, and we're actually behind the scenes recording on New Year's Day. We are. But we've recovered enough to heck out an episode, you know, just before the Bond 60th reveal. Bum-ba-da-bum-bum, bum-bum-bum-bum. Yeah, it's coming. It's coming Tuesday. We promise. Just like the dragons in Game of Thrones Season 1. They're coming. We promise to stick with it. So anything special on New Year's Eve? No.
Stern Pinballcompany
James Bond 60th Anniversary LEgame
Deadpool Premiumgame
Insider Connectedproduct
Shelly Sachsperson
The Pinball Showorganization

medium · Dennis speculating: 'Maybe Seth says everyone's on set teams now...Jack Danger will have a team, and Brian Eddy will have a team'

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Gary Stern stepping down as CEO while retaining board/shareholder control; Seth Davis elevated from interim to permanent CEO; Michael O'Donnell retiring after 35 years as CFO with Nick Parfit replacing him

    high · Zach and Dennis directly discussing the leadership transition announced by Stern Pinball; confirmed Seth Davis was brought in ~1 year ago for 'test drive'

  • ?

    announcement: James Bond 60th Anniversary LE by Keith Elwin officially launching January 3rd, 2023; 500 unit global production; new reveal format with direct Stern sales component

    high · Zach: 'James Bond's 60th anniversary limited edition by Keith Elwin...finally time for them to launch and reveal this game, Dennis, January 3rd...500 games globally'

  • ?

    business_signal: Stern's direct sales creates de facto MSRP through market pricing pressure; dealers will benchmark against Stern's direct price even without official MSRP, limiting dealer margin differentiation

    high · Dennis: 'if they are selling a handful direct, that almost suggests to me that there is going to be a suggested pricing...Stern sets the floor whether they mean to or not'

    • 2:55
    Usually it's just a few hours before. New Year's was never like a big holiday thing for me ever. So I usually just watch. But I always like to try and stay up until midnight. So I usually just watch movies. I actually watched the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies from a few years ago, which your friend Jablonski, I believe, did the music for the second one. I don't think he did the first. So he did the second one. So I hadn't seen those. So I watched both of those. And?
    3:25
    I like the music. Actually, they got me to laugh. You got to the second one, which is impressive. No, they got me to laugh. The second one looked better, but it was kind of, it felt like they were cramming in every, I don't remember Turtles super well. I mostly remember it from video games. So they're like, oh, they're really cramming in all of the names, all of the bad guys. Yeah, they even had Baxter, but they didn't have in this Baxter fly, which I kept going, when is he going to be a fly? What's going on?
    3:54
    And then they didn't have April O'Neil in her yellow jacket at all, and I thought, oh, come on. Megan Fox wants to wear the yellow jacket. I believe it. I believe in her. Now, a lot has happened since New Year's and when we last spoke to these listeners here. A lot has happened. Which was before Christmas. Yeah, before Christmas. We had our holiday get-together. You had your jammies on with the rest of the Creasel family. That was a good time, I assume? Yeah, it was. Christmas went well. And, of course, your gift, well, and there were multiple gifts. Well, that one was just a filler, you know, just a little fun. I think it's my job to be the filler of that. That's so true. Tell them about it. You're like, oh, great. Why don't you do it? So, yes, Zach shipped me. This is a huge box. It felt to me huge. Like Amazon's like, here, you ordered a stapler. Here, have this giant box style. So this box comes in. I'm like, what is this? Is this a topper? Surely not. Zach knows my ceilings are pretty low. Open it, and it's light. It's super light. I open it up. I knew it was coming, though, because I get the UPS notifications, whatever, anything from UPS is coming to my house. And open this box up, and there's all this air wrap. And I open, get past the little air padded bubbles and everything. Got to protect it. one pair of Nordman boxer briefs. Yes!
    5:18
    Nordman undies. So the backside on the cheeks shows the emblem of Nordman. Right. And then on the front, kind of in the crotchal region, we would say, it says the Silver Ball Knight. You really should have made it say Balls Knight. That's right, the Silver Ball Knight. Just for the underwear. That would have been more appropriate. Oh, I'm so glad that you got this. I don't know why Nicole put them in a big-ass box. I just probably thought that was a thing. Yeah, she might be getting blown by it. Because you can fold them up really small. Put them in an envelope. Shit. It's one pair. I like that she put, like, security wrap around it and everything. Yes, it was very safe. It was just like... She said it wrapped up in a security thing like the old CDs at Sam Goody. Remember the Sam Goody? Yeah, I think you're right. But, oh, gosh. It wasn't that bad to open. I know. Those CD cases, geez. So, yeah, that's right. You did get some underwear, and you did get a game from me for Christmas, and we expanded it out to everybody. If they guessed correctly, they were going to win the most wonderful prizes, but nobody got it correct. You lose. You get nothing. Not only did they not get the trim level, they didn't get the game. They didn't get the game. So the trim level aspect was moot. Didn't matter. Maybe it was a little tricky. But I mean. What was it? Was it still in production? It's still in production. I had one stashed away for a while. It was from the last run, which was a long time ago. I mean, it was like, yeah. So I get that. I get why that would be, you know, for the discerning, like knowing those who were like vetting it against what's on the line based off of the information you'd provided in the episode. I could kind of see it. I just thought at least someone would have lucked into it. Right. I mean, I didn't. I don't know if I saw every single message that came in, but I looked at a lot. It seemed like Mandalorian was the most common guess. Mandalorian, Toy Story, people guessed a lot of, and Rush, people guessed a lot of. Yeah. No, no, and no. Tell them what it was, Dennis, for those who didn't see. It was a Deadpool premium. Oh, yes. I think that was a pretty good call for you. I think Tony and I kind of – It was. And then what they also, of course, don't know because they didn't know the game was you got Mr. George Gomez to record a little Happy Christmas, Dennis, audio thing, which was which was way too burdensome to have put on him. So I did email him and I thanked him for doing that. Nice. Yeah, I will. I'll play that right now for listeners. This is what our homie Gomi had to say to the Creasel.
    7:54
    Hey, Dennis, it's George Gomez. I understand you have gotten an amazing Christmas present The pool man has shown up to say Merry Christmas And oh boy, I hope you have a great time with it I just heard Mr. Meany is gifting you a What is it, Deadpool Premium I think? Yikes It's the game that I would take to a desert island with me I'll tell you that right now So enjoy it Boom, baby, boom! So anyway, thank you very much, Zach. It was very surprising, and yes, it has been quite a bit of fun. You've got to admit, when that disco mode goes, that's a cool little moment. It is, it is. With the repeating shot. It's a cool effect on the player. I couldn't remember if I had played a premium. I had, but only like once. I mostly played a pro. So I didn't realize the ball spun. Yeah, and it shines. I mean, it discos on that whole play field. Yeah. You get that little ramp. It comes back up. It's a cool game. And now being in the home, I can actually hear the call-outs because I've always played it on location.
    9:02
    Which, you know, it always seemed funny. But, yeah, it's pretty entertaining, I got to admit. It was a good pick. And you're still fully connected. I am. I was like, I bet this one. I bet Zach's sending this so that I have to buy an Insider Connected Kit. That was my – because you'll be like, you know, Dennis, you can't have one spike system with the Connected Kit like Godzilla. But then I thought, well, this was new in box. I wasn't sure that it came out when the connected kits were available. I couldn't remember. So I thought, this might be pre-connected. But it was not. It was post-connected. It was, yeah. Their last run was one they squeezed in right after the, I don't know when that was. The build date on it actually is January. Yeah, that was a fault game that I kept back. Well, thank you. It was extremely kind of you. Thank you for accepting. I thought it fit well in your collection. And you know what I got for Christmas? another back surgery. Oh, no. That's very sad. Just after we got done talking about it, I had to go to an outpatient appointment so they could look it over and damned if they didn't say, that doesn't look good. We're hospitalizing you for an emergency surgery and you're going back under the knife. Merry Christmas, you filthy animal. But I did make it home before Christmas, so that was great. I still can't do much and it kills me.
    10:17
    Yeah, it's too bad that it had to happen again. But I guess you had indicated there wasn't any infection or anything. No infection. That was good. For all those that aren't squeamish, they did cultures, and it all came back good. Was it Cincinnati, like my theory has been? I think it was. See? I think it was. Chuck, fix that show. I know. I even had help. I don't know what to do anymore. Yeah, except for when you went to the drop freight place. You didn't have help there. Yeah, I didn't take help. Damn it. Oh, well, it's just a back, right? I'll have to get a fusion at some point, listener. for those of you who know the difference between all the different surgeries for the backs. I'll have to get a spinal fusion. That's going to be like a six-month recovery. It's going to happen. I just need to plan on when it's going to happen. Yeah, just do it during your slow season. That's right. See, problem solved.
    11:07
    Speaking of bad backs, your poor FedEx delivery guy that delivered the Deadpool premium damn near hurt his back. Can you tell people about that? Yeah, so, okay, so he wheels the – So many shipping issues. right right so anyway game comes in um you know it's on the palette of course wrapped uh he's got it on this sort of giant you know wheelie dolly thing it takes it into my garage where i've got plenty of space cleared so we take it off there he's covering up the label because he's like because i mentioned you know someone shipped it to me as a gift i don't know what it is and so he covered it when he wheeled it in he's like i'm coming cover the name you know i go i check the box for damage didn't see any damage he's like yeah no no i'd have told you if i saw any damage I was like, okay, well, the last guy was like, yeah, we don't go to any efforts if there's damage. He sounded like a friendly FedExer. Yeah, he was really friendly. I guess he delivered a few other pinballs before because he had mentioned that. So he's asking me about pinballs while he's leaving, and he's backing up. He's got the dolly in front of him, and he's backing up. And once he had pulled in, I had backed my car out of the driveway a little more. I don't park in the garage. So I had it out in the driveway, and I backed out more to give him way more clearance. and so anyway he's backing up he's backing up but he's not looking behind him i'm and finally i realize oh no he doesn't remember where the car is but before i can say anything he backs himself right into the bumper the dolly this huge dolly rolls into him like pins his leg and he falls against the hood and catches himself of your car yes oh yes and oh he was so of course he's super embarrassed about it but i mean he's clearly in pain he grabs his leg because this this is this huge. It's not like a normal home version dolly. This is that huge rolly thing. Yeah, it's the pallet jack. Yeah, thank you. You know the property. So pallet jack. And so he gets it, pushes it forward, gets off the car. He's looking at the car because he's worried that he dented it or something. I glance over at him like, no it looks fine Are you okay You pinned yourself against the car And he like no no it all right I hear him get to the truck and he got an associate in the truck with him I hear him complaining about how he pinned himself against the car on the way out because he didn't look behind him. All you were doing was sitting there on your damn phone. That's right. You didn't even come in. You didn't help. You didn't do anything. That's why you're my runner. You're supposed to get your ass out of here. And he sat out there for like 10 minutes. I thought maybe his leg's too wounded to push the accelerator, and he's stuck. You were the winner of a brand-new pinball machine. He was – I'm not going to call him a loser. We'll call him a non-winner of that whole delivery situation. And all of you listeners out there, I'm not going to call you losers because I love you, but you guys were non-winners with that whole contest of guessing the Deadpool premium for Dennis Creasel. I like that there was someone on Pinside who had commented from Australia because he was worried about the shipping costs of the big award. And it's like, well, you don't have to worry anymore. No worrying about that. So none of you won. I had two Deadpool premiums. None of you won that other brand-new pinball machine. I'm so sorry.
    14:15
    That's too bad. But you know what they say. Second place is the first non-winner. Speaking of winners, I think Craig Bobby is in hibernation still. So we're going to allow him a couple more weeks to regroup and come back. Doesn't mean we don't have news here at the Pinball Show. We have a ton of it. Yeah, there's a lot. So let's kick it off with Stern Pinball. Stern Pinball, a lot of movement this last couple weeks, such as Gary Stern, maybe the most iconic person living in the pinball industry, stepping down as CEO from Stern Pinball Incorporated.
    14:53
    That's a big one. He's been doing it for a long time. And we knew that when Shelly Sachs was retiring, those two came in together. I thought, eh, maybe this is reading the tea leaves here. I knew something may have been going on. So he's stepping down as CEO, but he will continue to serve as the chairman of the board over at Stern Pinball. And the other owner, Dave Peterson, is going to remain the vice chairman of the board. So they'll still be, you know, leading the board there. And both Gary and Dave, they're going to remain the controlling shareholders of the company. and they're going to serve in executive roles on a project basis. So they're still going to be around. They're still going to be doing stuff. They still are the majority owners of this company. So I don't see huge, huge changes. We know that Seth Davis came in about a little over a year ago to kind of take on that CEO position as like a temp kind of thing. So he's now full-time CEO at Stern Pinball. And not a lot of people are talking about it. I haven't heard it. But 35 years as CFO, Michael O'Donnell is retiring as well, and he has newcomer Nick Parfit joining the company to take over the CFO position. Yeah, I didn't find this news surprising, not for the tea leaf purpose with Shelly like you did, but rather just simply because they brought in Seth a while ago to sort of integrate him. Right, and I think it was with Joel Engelberth on his interview with George Gomez that was on the Flippin' Out YouTube that George had noted, yeah, they brought in Seth and they were – it was to see if he was a good fit. They wanted to sort of test drive him and see if he worked well with the culture and that he did. So that all was part of that logic that makes sense to me about bringing in. In terms of changes, though, I actually think this could be interesting because normally, at least as best as I know, typically the board, which – all right, so Gary is still on the board because of his investment, just like if it was a public-traded company or whatnot or nonprofit boards. I work for a board as an executive director, which is sort of essentially a CEO on a nonprofit side. So the CEO is subject to the will of the board, but generally the employees are under the control and discretion of the CEO. So even though Seth has, quote, unquote, fit in with Stern, it will be interesting. I think he'll start making his mark on it. And there may be some things that Gary did that Seth did not agree with that he kept his mouth shut about until he was CEO, and he'll probably start executing some changes. Oh, so you think it could be a little bit of a stir up? No, I'm not thinking anything major. I'm not thinking like all the design teams change or anything like that. But there may be some structural decisions. I don't think he's going to change on the cornerstones and stuff, but there might be some shuffling around. I've wondered if maybe Seth has been someone, for example, that had – this is a complete hypothetical. But let's say he's been the one that's been like, you know what? It seems like the teams have been really, really flexible. There haven't really been teams except project by project, but we know Elwynn has worked really consistently with a set team of people. Maybe Seth says everyone's on set teams now, and it's not going to be flexible like it used to be. Like Jack Danger will have a team, and Brian Eddy will have a team. The programmer will always be with the designer, the same leads and all of that. Yeah, some big decisions, but not drastic to what we need. Right, right. Some of that, and of course, moving to the new facility, there might be some internal logistics. Logistical changes that Seth will want to do based off of his prior experience with other companies that he thinks makes more sense than – I think we'll see it there, yeah. Yeah, whereas Stern I think probably has been, well, it worked at Data East. It worked at Sega. Let's keep – Let's keep rolling the bandwagon.
    18:45
    You've got the it ain't broke, don't fix it philosophy, and then you've also got the just because something ain't broke doesn't mean it can't be improved. Of course, the risk is, of course, tinkering with something that ain't broke and then breaking it. So you never know. But, yeah, no, I think we'll see more change now than we did when Seth came in because he now will have more autonomy as CEO. Because normally, at least, again, in the organizations I've worked with, which have been more nonprofit-oriented, but it's been, yeah, the CEO answers to the board, but the board generally doesn't – boards don't generally get to muck around with the individual employee levels. So also if there are people there that Seth doesn't like, they might be removed. Yeah, bringing his own people or at least get rid of the people he don't like. It'll be an interesting year for him. And again, I think that fits with some of – with like O'Donnell leaving and all of that. You see, there's a reason why old guard often all goes kind of at the same time because the work culture is going to change a bit. Maybe not a lot, but it will change some. And I remember – hell, this dates back four years ago, maybe five years ago. probably about four years ago when I interviewed for a job there and subsequently a year later interviewed again,
    19:57
    they talked about over the next decade we're transitioning to, we have a lot of senior executives here that are going to be retiring, including Gary Stern, including CFOs, CROs, all of these people. So we're looking for this next generation of Stern Pinball executives, and we're wanting passionate people that are willing to grow into that spot. So, yeah, that all makes sense to me. That all makes sense. But where does it go from here? We'll have to wait and see.
    20:34
    Oh, speaking of, we've waited long enough for James Bond's 60th anniversary limited edition by Keith Elwin. And it's finally time for them to launch and reveal this game, Dennis, January 3rd. Too late. I said it was going to be in December, and I was wrong. And so now I'm sad. I think I was wrong, too. I think in the last one you hedged a bit and said early January, late December, early January, in a desperate attempt to reposition your prediction. Well, it still makes me wonder when they're going to build these things. We don't know. We know that it's going to be launched January 3rd, 2023. I don't know if I'm supposed to announce time. I'll say the morning. How about that? You guys are welcome.
    21:12
    It's going to be a little bit different for dealers. Typically, we'd have a seminar day of or day before, talk about pricing, talk about assets, pictures, features, code, just everything. No dealer seminar this time around. We are going to be given some info probably an hour before the public reveal. but it's going to be a call for pricing thing again.
    21:44
    There's going to be 500 games globally. So typically, you know, 250 here, 250 overseas, maybe 300 here, 200, but 500 games globally. And we know that Stern is actually, they've already advertised that part of their insider program, that paid program, they're going to be selling a handful direct. So that's interesting because if it is called for pricing, we thought we'd fall into this whole Elvira House of Horse 40th anniversary where the dealer sets the price.
    22:15
    We will know as dealers our cost on these things prior to it launching. But I don't think dealers are going to see this until the public sees it.
    22:26
    Interesting. Now, I'm assuming then because of what you've just said about the information maybe coming out an hour or so before the public reveal that you don't know what they're going to list on their website. Because Stern Selling Direct, they're going to have a publicly known price. Exactly. So we don't know. So it makes it kind of tricky for us because once these go on sale, we don't have pictures. We don't have information. We don't even know what this product is.
    22:54
    We don't know how much to price it for. So at the reveal, bam, it's going to be crazy because you get phone calls coming in. I want this game. How much is it? This guy's got it for this much. I'm trying to update the website. I'm trying to inform our customers. It'll be a messy Tuesday, but it's a good problem to have. The only difference being if they are selling a handful direct, that almost suggests to me that there is going to be a suggested pricing. Yeah, you know, maybe they don't – I'm going to go ahead and why not both it. Okay. So they won't officially give you a suggested pricing, but there will be pressure to tie things based upon what their website price is, like indirect pressure. So, yeah, more like a hand-holding. What's going to happen – here's what I think. I think they're not going to give you – you'll know your expense. They're not going to give you the set price kind of like the Elvira, but since they're selling directly, the public almost immediately is going to say this is how much Stern says it should be sold for because that's how much they're selling it for on the website, and all distros will be compared to that value. I thought so as well, but then we do have someone we're friends with that is in the industry as well, and they – remember they messaged us suggesting another possible situation that may occur, and that made sense too. They said, well, this might be kind of the good nature of, you know, if they're only going to throw out, let's say, 10, let's say 5 to 15 direct. That's not really anything. They'll create even more demand for it because if it does go quick at, let's say, 5,000 below what dealers then start advertising for, if it goes that quick, which it probably will, even if it is a lower number. he said he don't think that really is a guaranteed effect on establishing a price. My thought is, I don't know if it necessarily, here's what I think. I think the 500s still sell out really no matter what happens with the pricing. But what I think it does is it gives people a context, a number that they're going to compare it to. That might not prohibit that, like, let's say Stern, let's say Stern sells it for $20,000. Okay. And then let's say a lot of the distributor – those 10 or 15 games go for the 20, and a lot of distributors kind of benchmark more like 25,000, which I've seen a lot of people kind of speculating. That's kind of the speculation I'm hearing. Yeah. I mean it'll just be – again, it's more impactful like where everyone – like if CoinTaker and Flippin' Out and Tilt Amusements are all different, that's more interesting. That's going to be more discussion worthy. That's what happened on Elvira. Right. than otherwise. But of course, as long as people know, well, Stern sold it for $20,000. So you know, and Stern made money. So you know that the distributors are making another $5,000 just pure profit on top of it. And there might be some grousing about it. Oh, it's a showing of hands kind of thing. Right, right. So that's sort of a thing is there will be – they might still sell it under what – Or do you think Stern reaches?
    26:06
    I mean, this puts a lot of power on them as well. because before they didn't have to get their hands dirty really.
    26:13
    No I do not Like do I think they sell for and then the distressed come in under what Stern directs prices I do not like do i think they sell for 35 000 and then the distros come in under what stern directs prices i do not it so hard to know it is but i think if if i were a distributor i would want to know what stern's selling at and i wouldn't be planning to sell under it sure because i think stern's gonna i think they're all gonna sell out so that's kind of my i i think that stern sets the floor whether they mean to or not i think they end up saying the floor So it would be very interesting.
    26:43
    Let's say – well, let's use you as an example. Let's say that they did say $35,000, and let's say flipping out. It's like, well, with what my price of the game is that I have to pay to buy it, I could still sell these for $30,000 and still make decent money. And you do, and you instantly sell them out. But what does it get you?
    27:01
    Like you're probably going to sell them all out at $35,000 too. So why would you do it? I mean, like you could say, well, I bought Goodwill. Great. But do you need that level? I have bought enough goodwill over the last four years. Does it help you sell Venoms later? You see, I don't see how that sort of goodwill – It's a good discussion, Dennis, and listen, because it goes back to what we discussed whenever Elvira came out and whenever we were in the thick of the pandemic, at the thick of the highest points that pinball pricing has ever seen, where you would see every new LE that comes out, regardless of the title. you would see a handful of dealers go above the MSRP or do an auction system.
    27:46
    So, and a lot of what we said initially was, yeah, the big dealers are going to do right by the people because they have the most to lose kind of thing. So they're not going to take these risks for the big over MSRP. And my argument initially was that. But then I came around, listener, and I said, after just gauging the behavioral patterns of everybody in this industry and the buying patterns and such, people have very short memories for shit that they really want. So I don't think it hurts anybody. I don't think it hurts a dealer when he jacked up the prices, you know, 5,000 more to sell them. Because if that dealer, even if they're a shyster, if that dealer still has the game you want, you'll deal with him. I don't think people's buying integrity, sadly, I just don't think it permeates over time. Like, I just, sad but true. so I don't know then again look what happened to Scooby Doo it didn't sell out because of the bad feelings in the tummies of buyers of Halloween and Ultraman so maybe it does matter in the future yeah and we can you know in terms of the future that would be interesting we can have a discussion on that about because I do think aspects of the industry are changing but I mean again if it's all within the realm of like whatever it's different is what I guess I'm poorly articulating so if Stern is the manufacturer right people are going to because they normally provide an MSRP so even if there isn't an MSRP if they are selling a game at a certain price it automatically becomes the MSRP in the minds of the public and the public will know because of the internet so even if the pricing was only offered for those that were in the insider thing. People are going to go on Pinside and they're going to post what the price was. It's going to come out that day. Given that, if any distributor were to sell under that, under the unofficial MSRP,
    29:50
    what is the advantage to it unless they were worried that they were going to be sitting on these games? See, if there were a lot, like this was an infinite number of 60th anniversaries, selling under 5,000 under MSRP and being allowed to because it's not, you know, it doesn't violate your floors or anything, that might have logic. But at 500 count of the most popular designer in the history of pinball, of a pretty popular theme, I just, you know. You're right, yeah. That's my point. If you were to sell like 5% under the Stern listed price, especially if none of the other distributors were doing, that's not going to help you move Toy Story 4s in your inventory. That's what I'm saying. It doesn't buy you anything. And I think there's still going to be some people that are going to be prickly at the perception of dealers that go over that stern price too. I really do. Sure. And that will be where you had noticed over the last couple of years how they were able to go over and they're still selling the games and stuff. That, in terms of how things are going to happen moving forward, people want what they want. But now that it's not as tight as this game aside, of course, but now that things are loosening, now that the supply chains are opening, Now that not everyone is just buying everything that's out there because they're desperate to get anything that's pinball that's functional, some of those chickens are going to come home to rest, I think. That could be a thorn in the pole. The missing scale in Smaug's armor. Yes, Smaug. I like Tony's Smaug. Yeah, he does it. He's got a lower voice than me. That's a pretty good one. We had a request for that on the new equipment. Oh, really? We had to work it in. Those are toes. So, yeah, I think that it'll be interesting to see how this thing rolls out. I still want one.
    31:40
    Would you be surprised if this damn thing sold for $35,000, $40,000 as a norm? As a norm? Yes. Yeah, I think I would be. I would, too. But, wow, what a talking point that would create. 500 is limited, obviously, but it's not – this is pinball, right? It's not – I mean, again, and I hate – because I don't want to bore everyone, but I hate cross-contaminating my hobbies all the time. But again, in wristwatches, 500 would be seen as an okay LE size. It wouldn't be seen as ridiculous. Like it's seen as the same count. But the brand normally sells for $10,000 to $15,000, and you're saying that this one all of a sudden – like we wouldn't see that sort of markup in that hobby from a – like Seiko doesn't mark up like that. So yeah, I think I really – 30 to 35 new in box would really surprise me quite frankly because there's not – other than its limited nature, there's not a good argument for it being that high. I don't think it's going to have that much more stuff in it. And again, this is only about half the normal LE run. Yeah. So normally what I would do is I would just take the current LE price and double it, and I'd say that's what it should be. Okay. I see. That's it. Pretty simple. That's an interesting heuristic there. Yeah. Okay. I want to do this little exercise, and then we're going to move on, because I want to tell these people what's coming in the second half production-wise. You promised this on the last episode.
    33:09
    But just as a little exercise here, this is kind of fun. We all know how great Godzilla is. key to the L1 game, right? I would argue that the IP is not even as strong as James Bond. No, it's not. What if, hypothetically,
    33:25
    we got to go back in time and we got to release Godzilla again, but they only released 500 total units. That's it. No pros, no premium. There's 500 LEs of Godzilla. That's it. Do you think that it goes that game goes for more than 25 000 because i do at 500 units uh i knowing what you know now it's the greatest of all time on pins right so so knowing that yes however the the catch there is if there were only ever 500 most people wouldn't actually have the hands-on experience to know that it was the greatest game yes very much so so yes hindsight Of course. So that's the catch. The problem is we all know, because there are so many out there, how great of a game Godzilla is. So, yes, knowing that, I do believe it would go for over $25,000 if there were only 500 of them. How high do you think it would go, knowing what we all know now with Godzilla? 500 units only. And maybe $250 overseas, $250 domestic.
    34:32
    $40,000? No, I don't know. No, we never saw like with the ultra collective things of like Big Bang Bar and stuff. They weren't going that high. And I get it. It's greatest gameplay of all time. But a lot of you got to remember our little Venn diagram, right? A lot of people that can truly enjoy that the game is great. There's still a there's still a price value per play that becomes ridiculous at some points. It's the greatest game ever. But it's also it's not $40,000. It seemed we're getting stupid. Yeah, it seems like with Batman Super L.A., with all of these just super rare stuff, 30,000 is kind of that ceiling. I just wondered if, because we know Godzilla arguably is the greatest game of all time, does it break through that ceiling that we've seen stuff, you know, the CE Pirates kind of at its heyday peak right around 30. Do we break that 30,000? It'd be very interesting. Maybe. It possibly could with as low as a count as you've given it and if it had as much hype and popularity as it currently does. Yeah, I think maybe – I would say I think it could break 30. I don't think it breaks 40. Do you think it breaks 40 with 100 units total?
    35:48
    Yeah, probably. See how this – it's very interesting. Numbers matter. Numbers very much matter. So, yeah, the rarer you make it, the more you can pump it up because regardless of how your overlaps in your little Venn diagram are, you need less and less people involved to control the value of it because you're getting to the point where it's only a handful of buyers that are willing to play in that space. I mean, think about it as a normal – not as a distro, but as a normal human being. if you were let's say you had forty thousand dollars for a pinball collection do you just buy one game i don't think i could no see that's where that's a lot of people are going to be in that because even if they could afford it it's like well i can own one game or i can own four ten thousand dollar games or i can own eight five thousand dollars you see you know what's crazy the one the one category that would make me think twice to spread myself that thin would be theme.
    36:50
    I mean, you... It really would, because there's only a finite amount of pinball machines that I could own. I like having nice things. I like displaying my preferences on things, collectability and stuff like that. Theme really holds a really strong place for me on collectability type of things. Sure. And every hobbyist is going to approach the question differently. So, I mean, once we're getting to that volume of games and that price point, I mean, how many of them are going to be played?
    37:20
    Because you start being the diaper wiper. They're going to be the diaper wipers are going to scoop these up. These games are for show. They're for flex. They're visual spectacle. I don't use them. I could see, though, at a limited run of 100 of an Elwynn's Best, I could see locations then start to say, now we've got a – this is a specific draw for our location. because not many locations around the country are going to have this for general play, for use of big competitions if these locations want these big whopper farms kind of thing. I think then you get some of these big locations that say, hey, this is an actual entertainment draw for us to put us on the map. So I don't know. Maybe. Maybe some really large. I could see like Pinball Hall of Fame like they did with Pinball Circus kind of going for that logic. But honestly, I don't think having a $40,000 game gets you enough additional foot traffic to warrant the price. I think most of them, if they had the game and it got that high, would probably sell it to just buy multiple more games and make more coin drop. I just don't think it's enough of a – I see the psychology of it. I actually don't think enough people will travel to just experience – they'll do that, and how much are they going to drop in at $20, and then they'll never come back? I mean, it's – These are fun little discussions and such. It's amazing how these discussions can have some weight whenever we're dealing with the biggest manufacturer and arguably the best designer.
    38:52
    I mean, the ceiling goes up from there because you give me a Back to the Future that is a phenomenal maybe. Give me a Back to the Future that's a top 20 game from a consensus standpoint review-wise. $50,000, I would find a way to own that game for $50,000. Yeah, you would, but I would not. No, I get that. And I think more people in the hobby are like me than are like you. A hundred percent yes And I don mean like personality No no I know exactly what you mean when it comes to that level of of into pinball like it just I never I mean I I don think my entire collection is worth 50,000. So it would be, it would be extremely, it would be extremely hard for me to, to, you know, want my collection to be worth that much. And then to say it's all in one game. I mean, I wouldn't have anything else. I just, I couldn't rationalize it. I, you know, cause I could logic myself saying, well, if I sell this and this and this and this, I could get it, and it's still the same amount of money into the hobby.
    39:53
    But it's like, okay, and I'm going to go downstairs and play my one game. I remember when I had my one game. There's a reason why I have more now. We'll see in a couple days how high this thing can go or how low this thing can go, whether it's going to be a certified hit or whether this is going to be the one game that Elwyn falls on the sword for. If this is his. No. Even if it's bad, again, it's so rare. I just don't think it makes much of an impact on his reputation if it's bad. When it comes to James Bond, we're talking about James Bond, a lot of people are going for the premium version. And believe it or not, I didn't think these things would start shipping until January once they come back from their little hiatus, their production hiatus. No, there were some that actually left the facility in 2022. We were able to – we've got some en route right now, some Bond premiums that have shipped, a good amount of them too. So first run is among us of James Bond Premium before the first of the year. That's pretty exciting for a lot of people. So it is coming. And I did hear that this .8 code update was a huge help already. I did hear that. I have not played it myself, though, so I can't – I don't know. But I heard it was girthy, quite girthy. Well, again, going back to that Joel interview with George Gomez, Gomez did confirm on that interview that it is the licensor that approvals are holding it, Which had been my speculation for a while. I couldn't fathom that they weren't as far along. I mean, the code was bad. Exactly. Not badly developed. It's so bare. And I'm like, there's no way they're this far behind, especially since they skipped a cornerstone. It has to be something else holding it up. And yes, it's the licensor trying to approve all those visual assets. It's a mess. And now looking at the production schedule, we're going to give you here exclusively on the pinball show the second half of production schedule timeline for Stern Pinball. As a reminder, these are all tentative schedules. They change whenever they need to change. So it's just a general guideline as to where we're going to be going this year. We talked last episode 119 on what Stern was going to be developing producing January 2023 through June of 2023. So let's start really quick before we jump into July. Let's start with looking at our January schedule again. January schedule does have some bond premiums on there. So we're going to see some bond premiums continue to roll out once they come back from their hiatus. And then it says James Bond Pro. So we may get some pros. But they fulfilled a lot of them, so we'll see. I still think there could be a window for this 60th anniversary to be built in January, February.
    42:36
    Okay. I still think it could happen. So we'll see there. We'll have some updates likely the next day or two as to when they're going to build these 60th anniversaries. But keep that in mind. Let's jump to July. The plans are to rerun Avengers. We haven't seen Avengers producing quite some time. We're going to see the Pro and Premium jump back on the production line in July. And as of right now, that's the only thing on July's schedule. Interesting.
    43:06
    Hmm. Summer, July. Okay. All right. We'll keep that in mind. As we jump into August, the production schedule, Stern Pinball for August 2023, includes the likes of, they've had to have sold a lot of these games, Star Wars, Pro, and Premium again. we're not going to get any for the first six months of 2023 but we're going to get it for seven months we're going to get some more in August that's the license I guess just license alone sells very well people were speculating during the last run in November-ish October-ish that maybe the license was done, nope there's plans to make them in August September schedule currently is blank I wonder what that means I wonder what that means. So interestingly, Jurassic Park pros do not see a run like their counterpart premiums in the first six months of 2023. Remember, the premiums are being built again in June, but the pro is waiting until October. But again, that's the only thing in October. So something feels like it's happening in September, and it's going to be happening so much so that the premium may be rolling into October production. Right. That's a second cornerstone. November comes along and we're going to see Godzilla Premium get another run. Hallelujah.
    44:26
    We're also going to see made in November of 2023, right around the holiday season, Mandalorian Pro and Premium again.
    44:35
    And as a reminder, those have not been made since last summer, this past summer. So they nearly go a year. No, they made a couple of them here recently. But still, that's eight, nine, ten months of no Mandalorians. Dealers' inventories are getting short on Mandalorians, so you're going to see that with the topper and everything. You're going to see that start heating up a little bit more. December rolls around, and we're going to get, ah, there they are, Deadpool.
    45:05
    Deadpool Pro and Premium. You thought it wasn't going to make an appearance in 2023, and it hasn't all the way up until December.
    45:13
    December 2023, Deadpool Pro and Premium. So that little red bitch you've got in your collection right now, Dennis, the value is going to hold very strong. Do you think that they're running it in December as like a Dennis bump? Like that me talking about the game, they've been like, we've got to put another run on it because it's going to be so hype. If not, he's going to end up selling that thing for $20,000. Yeah, and they're like, if we've learned anything here at Stern Pinball, it is we do not want Dennis to make money. You know what? I tell you what. People get their refund checks back this year. No Deadpool production until next December, a year from now. That Deadpool premium's easily, easily a $10,000 plus game used. Easily. New in box, I think you could get closer to $12,000. Isn't that nuts? It's not in the box anymore. It's not in the box anymore, but just for figuring out. It's in the lineup. Now, of note, But as we're looking at the bigger picture here of a 2023 production for Stern Pinball, there are no current planned runs of Rush pro or premium for the entirety of 2023. That's interesting. That's surprising to me. That is surprising. I think it changes. I really think that changes because Rush has sat there this summer.
    46:39
    Rush has sat in inventory. They sat, and we reported to Stern that they were sitting. and then once code became more complete on that thing now they're gone and they're gone quick so they're a harder they're a harder title to get in dealers still have them but those things aren't going to be sitting like a led zeppelin will or like a you know what or like a star wars star wars are going to sit rush will not so yeah no rushes on the slate and then looking through all their other produced games everything's getting a run in 2023 with the exception of rush Other things to note, Godzilla Premium, right now only scheduled for February and November. I don't think that that will be true. I think they will run that one or two additional times. They're going to have to. Yeah. They're going to have to if they have the parts. Elvira only gets that one yearly run as of right now.
    47:31
    They could probably run Jurassic Park twice next year. That would be really good. Deadpools they could run several times. That would be really good. That's still hot. Iron Maidens, they could probably run that twice as well. So again, the back orders stay high, and these catalog games stay desirable, both on the primary and secondary market. So there's your update from Stern Pinball.
    47:55
    What do you think of 2023? What are we going to see at Stern Pinball? We've talked about this. We think there's going to be two cornerstones. I think there's going to be some kind of little mystery happening at some point from Stern Pinball. They've got something in their sleeve for 2023. I really do think that.
    48:12
    And then do we get anything else? Or is it just going to be two cornerstones? Is it going to be Foo Fighters? Is it going to be Jack Danger? We did hear from George Gomez on the Flippin' Out stream that Jack Danger and Tanya are going to be working together on a cornerstone, as are Dwight Sullivan and Brian Eddy on a cornerstone. Those are our two cornerstones this year. Do we see a Foo Fighters from the Danger crew and a Venom from the Eddy crew? Do we see any other games? Actually, I agree with that still. I've seen some people starting to doubt the rumored lineup stuff. Like I know, again, based off that interview, as you noted, there was the talk about George mentioned that Jack was going in a different direction than what Stern's used to. So I've seen people starting to second guess the long rumors. Yeah, that's excuse and stuff. And I agree with what George said. I think people are reading too much into it. And Foo Fighters is what – I mean they've covered several genres of music, but grunge and post-grunge is something that they're known for, which that's a new direction. Stern hasn't done that style of music before. So I think he's still doing Foo Fighters, and I do think it's 2023. And I still think Venom is in the works, and I do think that's Eddie's game. And I think that's 2023. So those are the two cornerstones. I will disagree with you about the something special. I'm going to lean into a live stream I saw with Mr. Craig Bobby. even though he couldn't be here with us today to provide the news, with the thought of Kapow and Back to the Future, but being 2025. So with that out further than 2023, I think that it's just the two cornerstones and the rest of the time is spent catching up on Godzilla. No, remember George Gomez kind of talking about Stranger Things? Oh, yeah. No, there may. Oh, you mean. Okay. I forgot about that. You know what? Okay. Went there, knew last season of Stranger Things was going to happen around the summer.
    50:10
    He said they would fix it all. If it did happen again, I'm surprised he even went there. I think running Stranger Things again would be very smart for Stern to do.
    50:26
    One last run. But it wouldn't have to happen this year. Last season, it's not going to be as irrelevant. it i i know but the game itself has grown its popularity given where the code is at right now is a fault probably not i mean maybe a pro but but during their last season you probably wouldn't yeah i'm just the last game of thrones last season oh no it was great i was the only one liked it's fine no it's not it was bad no it wasn't what did you want to happen that that makes sense that all makes sense i don't know what john snow ended up doing and i'm going to change personalities in the last episode. No, she was tired of all the shit she keeps getting. She finally said, you know what? Fuck these people. That was my perfect impression of Khaleesi. My Khaleesi. I'm just going to change personalities. I can relate to her. Burn it all to the ground.
    51:19
    All these knives in her back. Knives out. Class on you. So, yeah, no, I could see that happening. Okay. I don't know. I mean, it's like, I mean, I guess Godzilla's kind of evergreen. So there's so many people that are waiting with orders, and I still, you know how I am. I don't believe in people having to wait like a year for games. I think it's a bad, bad look for any company that allows it, be it on purpose or not. And clearly, I think clearly, Stern never expected this sort of C-tier license of Godzilla to be this popular, but it is. And I think they need to try and satisfy that as quickly as they can.
    52:02
    And skipping a cornerstone and then filling it with like a vault style thing, I think that can work. But as long as it's not too big of a run because they really need to be throwing more premium Godzillas on the line. Yeah. That's what I think. That's a good take. I'm going to agree with most of that. And that has been part one of episode 120 of the Pinball Show. Make sure to check out part two of your favorite pinball podcast right now.