Episode 1184: "Why Pokemon LE is an INSTANT SELLOUT and will GO UP IN VALUE"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 54s·analyzed·Feb 7, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Pokemon LE will instantly sell out due to scarcity and broad appeal; Spooky excels while Dutch Pinball faces timeline pressure.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Pokemon LE (750 units globally at $13,000) will sell out instantly due to scarcity, George Gomez's reputation, cross-generational appeal, and lack of recent valuable Stern LEs. He predicts short-term secondary market appreciation and discusses upcoming reveals, Spooky's momentum with Beetlejuice, quality concerns with early Winchester units, and skepticism about Dutch Pinball's Back to the Future timeline and mechanical innovation.

Key Claims

750 total global Pokemon LE units will be produced
high confidence · Kaneda states this as Stern's official distribution plan; presented as confirmed information from pre-release details
Pokemon LE will sell out instantly and potentially appreciate to $14,500+ in secondary market short-term
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on scarcity model and collector demand; presented as investment thesis, not confirmed market data
Pokemon game will feature 'save your own adventure' progression system similar to Dungeons & Dragons design philosophy
medium confidence · Kaneda reports this as a game design detail from unspecified sources; framed as gameplay speculation consistent with IP theme
Stern will reveal Pokemon to media Wednesday under NDA but details will leak Tuesday or earlier
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on historical Stern launch patterns and dealer/distributor pre-release asset distribution
AC/DC and KISS remasters are both coming but order unclear—Jason Knapp says KISS next, Kaneda's sources say AC/DC
medium confidence · Kaneda cites unspecified 'very good resources' and conversation with Jason Knapp; rumor status acknowledged
Beetlejuice show game is currently too easy due to excessive ball saves added by developers
medium confidence · Kaneda reports feedback from show experience; attributes to designer Luke's balance tweaking between hard and easy settings
Brand new Winchester unit #19 shipped with 827 plays logged on computer, suggesting test machine reuse or audit error
high confidence · Kaneda reports specific incident of customer finding pre-used component in new purchase; incident confidence high but causation speculative
Back to the Future will not be released this year; estimated year away from launch
medium confidence · Kaneda's estimate based on production observations and investor news; not official Dutch Pinball timeline

Notable Quotes

“only 750 globally. Okay, so when you just stop and think about that for a minute: only 750 globally.”
Kaneda @ ~2:30 — Core thesis of scarcity-driven instant sellout; emphasizes constraint as primary demand driver
“You could fly to Japan and have the greatest Pokemon Go adventure of your life and fly back first class, people, okay? So $13,000 for a lot of Pokemon fans could unlock a dream Pokemon experience.”
Kaneda @ ~3:45 — Addresses pricing psychology for Pokemon fan crossover into pinball; market expansion argument
“The Stern LE collector has really been waiting years for something worthy. And again, there are people out there and I mean this: there are like a few hundred of them out there that just want to buy something that's not going to tank in value.”
Kaneda @ ~5:30 — Identifies Stern LE collector psychology crisis; recent value destruction context for Pokemon positioning
“I don't think they're gonna leave this game sort of empty, but I do worry about the launch code. You have to be living under a rock if you haven't seen some of the poor early codes that Stern has put out there recently.”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Quality concern signal about Stern's resource constraints and historical launch code issues
“There's been a lot of back and forth. I've been talking to my friend Jason Knapp on the side. He's like, 'Look, Chris, man, I think they're both happening.'”
Kaneda @ ~9:30 — Remaster rumor sourcing; transparency about conflicting intelligence on AC/DC vs KISS sequencing
“I keep hearing from everybody—I mean, this is the most unanimous thing I've been hearing all year—that G1 Transformers will be the game that really knocks everybody's socks off, that it will not be Pokemon.”
Kaneda @ ~10:45 — Competitive positioning forecast; signals industry consensus that Pokemon is good/solid, not exceptional
“He unboxed his Winchester and it had 800 total games started—like 827 plays on a brand new game. And so I don't know what happened... no game should ever go. A new inbox game should never go to a customer when they do an audit of the game and there's over 800 plays on day one.”

Entities

Pokemongame Kanedaperson George GomezpersonStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyBeetlejuicegameWinchestergame

Signals

?
business_signal: Dutch Pinball secured new investors but capital alone insufficient for game quality; Barry and team need better formalization and community communication
medium · Kaneda: 'new investors over at Dutch. All the money in the world, though, doesn't make a good game' and calls for formalization/excitement generation
?
product_concern: Dutch Pinball Back to the Future mechanical design lacking standout 'wow' features vs Big Lebowski; whitewood playtest feedback indicates innovation gap
low · Kaneda: 'I did not hear like backflips OMG' and questions how much non-Dutch team contribution made Big Lebowski special
?
design_philosophy: Pokemon game design incorporating 'save your own adventure' progression system (Dungeons & Dragons model) to preserve caught Pokemon across plays rather than resetting each ball
medium · Kaneda: game 'going to be a little bit like a Dungeons & Dragons sort of save your own adventure' because 'if there's a lot of Pokemon to catch and it's a three-ball game, starting over every time is not gonna be fun'
$
market_signal: Pokemon LE scarcity (750 units globally) and three-tier collector demand (Pokemon fans, George Gomez fans, Stern LE collectors) predicted to drive instant sellout and short-term secondary market appreciation ($13,000 → $14,500+)
medium · Kaneda's explicit prediction model: 'only 750 globally' + George Gomez reputation + cross-generational appeal + lack of recent valuable Stern LEs = instant sell/value hold
$
market_signal: Stern planning Wednesday media NDA reveal for Pokemon but dealer/distributor assets likely to leak earlier (Tuesday or before); Monday sales order lock-in anticipated before gameplay visibility

Topics

Pokemon LE scarcity and secondary market appreciationprimaryStern launch strategy and pre-reveal sales tacticsprimaryStern LE collector psychology and value depreciation crisisprimarySpooky Pinball momentum and game qualityprimaryDutch Pinball Back to the Future timeline and mechanical design concernsprimaryWinchester production quality and component reuse issuessecondaryStern code quality and resource constraints at launchsecondaryStern AC/DC and KISS remaster pipeline rumorssecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.55)— Kaneda is bullish on Pokemon LE investment thesis and optimistic about Spooky's trajectory (Beetlejuice, Winchester improvements, future games). However, he expresses concern about Stern's launch code quality, skepticism about whether Pokemon is a 'great' game vs merely 'good', and notable skepticism/criticism toward Dutch Pinball's Back to the Future execution and timeline credibility. Tone is confident and opinionated but balanced with acknowledgment of uncertainty.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.060

Folks, it's the battle you've been waiting for. Okay, bye! Now catch em all! Catch em all! Yessir, yessir, yessir, yessir, yessir, yessir, yessir! Alright, ladies and gentlemen, people down at the beach, people on pin side, I'm seeing something I never thought I'd see. grown-ass men debating Pokemon in the pinball community. It's really funny to watch everybody's point of view. And now that we've seen the worst kept secret in pinball revealed, it is gonna be Pokemon. It is gonna come out next week. And we're starting to see a little bit of Stern's details here. How they're gonna roll this game out. Only, I say the word only just because we've had so many either unlimited Harry Potter CEs, or we've had like a thousand John Wick LEs, we are only going to get the biggest IP in the world, the biggest entertainment IP by far, it's double the size of Star Wars, we are only going to get 750 total global Pokemon LE pinball machines. Okay, so when you just stop and think about that for a minute. Only $7.50 globally. Now, Pokemon is beyond big. There's collector communities everywhere. I bet right now if you were to go over to one of the Pokemon collector communities, they are probably like, oh yeah, really cool. But who the hell spends this much money on a pinball machine? Once you start to realize how much it's going to be, That's a lot of money, man. It's a lot of money for like everybody. I don't even care how rich you are. It's just a lot of money for a single game, especially a franchise where the trading cards are cheap just to buy a pack. The video games are cheap. The clothing, everything that surrounds the Pokemon universe, nothing. $13,000, you could fly to Japan and have the greatest Pokemon Go adventure of your life and fly back. First class, people, okay? So $13,000 for a lot of Pokemon fans could unlock a dream Pokemon experience. But you know what? You know what? I woke up this morning. Kaneda woke up after sleeping on the couch, five o'clock in the morning. I've been up watching the Olympics downhill. It's amazing. I love when the Olympics are somewhere, so that at like an odd hour, they're on in America. It's great. It's a lot of fun. So I think the LEs are so easily going to sell out. I mean, they're so easily going to sell out. But also remember this. They're still going to distros. So for Stern to feed all of the dealers and all of the distros they have, only 750 Pokemon LEs. I've been saying it for a while. Whether or not you think Pokemon's going to be a big seller overall, the LEs are going to sell out instantly, right away. They may go for more money than 13. I'm not going to say they are absolutely going to go for more money, but it's going to come down to the game. Because this is the thing. On a pure just Pokemon fan, you know, that's going to gobble up about a couple hundred of these LEs. I don't mean anything more than that. But if the game is a great pinball machine, don't count out the idiocracy of the overweight white male Caucasian Stern LE collector. Okay, I hate to be a stereotype right now, but don't count out, I've left something out, the extremely wealthy, overweight, cargo short wearing idiotic Stern LE collector. And if you're going to take offense to that, please don't. I am just joking. I feel like every joke has to come with a little bit of a disclaimer now. Lady and the Tramp movie by Disney has a disclaimer that it might be offensive to some viewers. If you don't realize by now that Canada might be offensive to some pinheads out there, you're listening to the wrong show, baby. But here's the thing. The Stern Ellie collector has really been waiting years for something worthy. And again, there are people out there and I mean this. There are like a few hundred of them out there that just want to buy something that's not going to tank in value. And everything been tanking in value except for Jaws except for Metallica Remastered Okay but other than those two titles recently everything else And I mean like to It almost made the LE absolutely pointless But I think that Beetlejuice Why did I say Beetlejuice? I think we'll get to Beetlejuice in a second. I think that Pokemon LE will be a game that will hold value in the short term. it will be perceived by the Stern LE collector as worth it. They don't want to get left out because it does have a level of global appeal unlike any other IP in the world. And if Gomez does it justice, you know, it's George Gomez. He's made some of the best pinball in all of pinball history. He's got a big fan base. He's older. He's twice as old as the Pokemon franchise. He's more than twice as old as the Pokemon franchise. So you have to add all that up. You got the George Gomez fans. You've got the Pokemon fans. You've got the Stern LE fans. That's enough. That's like way more than enough to sell out of 750 Pokemon LEs. Now, 13 grand. There is no price increase. I'm hearing that the game is going to be a little bit like a Dungeons and Dragons sort of save your own adventure as you go and unlock things on this long journey to catch them all. It kind of makes sense because if there's a lot of Pokemon to catch and it's a three ball game, starting over every time is not gonna be fun. It's totally the kind of game where you have to save the Pokemon you've caught. I mean, that's why people love Pokemon. The design team on this from a software standpoint, I think is gonna be top notch. I don't think they're gonna leave this game sort of empty, but I do worry about the launch code. You have to be living under a rock if you haven't seen some of the poor early codes that Stern has put out there recently. They seem to be a company where the resources are stretched very thin. And so if this is a game where the code is very early on and there's not much in it, maybe that's why they delayed it a little bit. I don't really think the game was delayed. This is the 30th anniversary of Pokemon. What I'm curious about is this. Will the LE be branded as the 30th anniversary of Pokemon? Will all of these games be branded as 30th anniversary edition? See, I think it would be really smart for Stern to make the LE that. And then it feels like down the road they're going to make another LE. This is the big issue with all Stern LEs. There's just this overwhelming fear that they're going to remake the game down the road. Once they started doing that, I think that has hurt the LE value almost more than anything. And I'm hearing from very good resources that KISS LE may happen, but ACDC is definitely the next LE remastered or the next remastered game from Stern. There's been a lot of back and forth. I've been talking to my friend Jason Knapp on the side. He's like, look, Chris, man, I think they're both happening. So he said that it was going to be KISS next. I have from some very good sources, it's going to be ACDC. I think we're both going to be right. We just might have the order mixed up, but they are both coming back. And I keep hearing from everybody. I mean, this is the most unanimous thing I've been hearing all year, that G1 Transformers will be the game that really knocks everybody's socks off, that it will not be Pokemon. See, I think Pokemon is going to be good, not great, but it's going to be based on a great theme. Now, is it a great theme for pinball? That is highly debatable. We'll see what they do with it. But again, 750 global market, the game is an instant sellout. And here's the other reason why It's real simple. John Youssi what's happening with Beetlejuice, right? I know everyone's like clamoring to see more feedback from Pinball at the Beach. Now, remember, when you go to these shows, you just want to go have fun, play the game, drink beers, pina coladas with your boys. You're having a good time. You don't give two rats asses. And I mean this about reporting back to the alcoholic pin side babies that demand you report something to them. You just don't care. Like whenever I'm at a show, I could care less. Like if you want to have the fun of Beetlejuice at the show, go, go Iceman, go everybody who's got all this money. Neil McRae is there. Go. These guys brag about how much money they make. well if they all big shots why can they take off a few days you know what i saying why can they just fly to florida the tickets from texas to florida are dirt cheap Just go hang out with everybody And the reason why I wish all these pin side babies would just stop posting and go to more stuff It just balances it out more So I just think people are having a good time. The feedback I'm seeing on Beetlejuice is pretty universal. The game is phenomenal. It's amazing. The only like concern is that it may be too easy And that is because I think Luke, Luke, I know you're listening. He's like, I don't know, man, it was like too hard last week. So now they've added in all these ball saves. I think they've made it too easy. I think the show game self-admittedly is very easy to set up. So people are playing it and laughing at how many drains are getting new balls in play. And so I think they've got it maybe way too easy. And they just want people to enjoy the game and not feel frustrated. So that's an easy change. and I know that they will find the right balance. I'd rather a game be able to be easy or hard because you can control it. Some games are just brutal because the design is the way it is and nothing will change that. So I think they're gonna find that balance, but that's the feedback. People are like, it's a stunning machine. Anyone who's got one is gonna be happy. Spooky's on a roll, baby, and their next few games are gonna crush as well. I believe there's one Winchester down there. that's interesting there's an interesting story happening a dude unboxed a brand new winchester i know they're working on it behind the scenes and i don't know what happened here i gotta get the full picture he uh unboxed his winchester and it had 800 total games started like 827 on a brand new game and so i don't know what happened if they took the computer from one of the show games and put it into his game, whatever it is, no game should ever go. A new inbox game should never go to a customer when they do an audit of the game and there's over 800 plays on day one. That's like buying a new car, even though there's no scratch or dents on it. You buy a new car, you look down at the odometer and it's got 5,000 miles on it. I mean, 800 plays is more than some of these collectors ever put on any games all time and so I'll find out what the total resolution is we'll get that on the next show but that's just weird but he was looking at the play field it did not look like it had gone through 800 plays so something happened there that was a little strange it's early on in the Winchester production you know I think they've made this was like relic number 19 so who knows man who knows it's early on but we do know that They've got the wiring harnesses down. The game looks much, much cleaner now. I guess my question is, what do you do now for the early guys? Like the first 10 dudes whose games look like a spaghetti bowl. What do you do for them? Do you send them new wiring harnesses? I don't know, man. Those early games, I wouldn't want one. The other ones are much cleaner. But Winchesters are slowly trickling out. there's a lot of stuff happening in the Alice owner thread. I think the dissent is on at DPX and Dutch Pinball. I think people are realizing their faith is beginning to erode that Back to the Future is going to be the best game ever. I think Barry and the team over there just needs to get it together. They need to get it together. They need to formalize this stuff more. They need to get people excited and they need to bring more people in. I mean that. I just mean that. And from what I'm hearing, this is not going to be like this mechanically wow game like the Big Lebowski. And it does beg the question, how many other people that are not at Dutch helped make the Big Lebowski with Barry? So I'm just going off of what I'm hearing, but I did not hear like backflips OMG. And these are people that have seen the Whitewoods. So we'll see what happens. I'm rooting for them. You know, I am. I don't think the game's going to come out this year. There's about a year to go. There's new investors over at Dutch. All the money in the world, though, doesn't make a good game. And that's the beautiful thing about pinball is that all the money in the world does not a good game make. So it doesn't matter if you made billions over here in the banking industry. Look how long it took Jersey Jack to get to Potter. Doesn't matter if you made billions making LED road signs. After 10 years, American Pinball doesn't have a single good game. I know that's a new owner and I hope they nail it, but it just doesn't matter. The only thing that will ever get to a truly great game is a collaborative process with really talented people who have a lot of heart and soul and passion for the thing they making And that is all it takes And if you nail that and the theme is decent it just has to be a decent theme, you're going to pretty much make a stellar pinball machine. So, okay, the question now becomes what happens this week? Are we going to see the full reveal of Pokemon this week. We know that the media are going over there on Wednesday under NDA. Here's the thing. They do not confiscate everybody's cell phones. We are going to see this game. I am going to guess on Tuesday. And I think Wednesday, they're just going to embargo everybody's coverage to hit at the same time. So what I think they're going to want to do is everybody come in, everybody play the game, but please hold your stories until like five o'clock Wednesday night. But I still think they're going to see the game. I still think we're going to see the game earlier. I think everyone going there on Wednesday thinking they're going to be the first people ever to see the game. I don't know. I think they're going to get burned. I think we're going to see it on Tuesday. I think something's going to leak. It always does. It always does. You're telling me that Stern is not going to send some of its biggest dealers or distros any assets on this game, that they're going to let some YouTubers see it before their biggest customers. No way. But it's all going to happen next week. I see people speculating that they think the NDA is going to carry beyond next week and that we're not going to see it next week. No, Stern's going to strike while the iron is hot. They always do this. There's a lot of newbies in this hobby. They're like, well, I don't understand. Like if something went up on Friday, what does that mean? What do you mean? What does it mean? Every single Stern launch is the same. It's the Friday theme confirmation. And then it's into the next week reveal. And what they'll normally do is take orders well before we see any gameplay. They're going to do this again. They're going to want to lock in all of that money before John Youssi how little software is in the game. That's been their strategy on almost every single new game. and I think this game is going to be shipped to dealers and distros next week. I'm expecting Mike at Automated to have this game on the 11th. So I expect to go play Pokemon next week and give you my first impression. See, that's why I didn't fly all the way down to Florida because he's going to get a Beetlejuice real soon and a Pokemon next week. Okay, I'm going to be able to go 30 minutes if my damn car can make it through the Jon Snow and play these new games. But here's my advice for each and every one of you stern speculators. I mean this. I think you're going to be able to sell a $13,000 Pokemon Ellie for more than $13,000 during a short window this month. I think once the global Pokemon community is made aware of this game, the amount of people with money who don't care about Pinside or Kaneda or resale value. They're just going to want the best version. And if this LE comes with any sort of collectible card or anything that is deemed collectible by the Pokemon community, all bets are off on how much money people might want to spend to get this game. I don't think it's going to be that many. Just, you know, curb a little bit of your enthusiasm here. I think at $13,000, I could see them going for like $14,500 for a little bit, and then it's going to come down to the game. If the game is great, and it's a lot of fun, and it's colorful, and it's got great replay value, and it's cross-generational, for a lot of you out there, there's not many Stern machines that your kids like. And for a lot of you who were born in the 90s, we don't talk about these people. People born, if you were like six years old when Pokemon came out, you have money. You're in your mid-30s, and you might be so turned off by all the boomer Gen X stuff, and now you've got a pin. And I think a lot of that community has been very silent all of these years because no one's served them up anything. There hasn't been like a great musical act from the 90s or 2000s. Nothing. Everything is old. Everything is 70s, 80s, 60s for the most part. Okay, everybody, have a great Saturday. The Spectacular will be on in two hours. Going to go watch the Olympics and take care of these kids. I love you. Get in on a Pokemon, Ellie. Trust me. Going to sell out. Got to get them all sold, baby. That is the rally cry of Seth Davis. Later. Folks, it's the battle you've been waiting for. Pokemon! Gotta catch them all! Gotta catch them all! you