Kaneda's Sunday Morning Service

TL;DR

Kaneda critiques Stern's pricing and marketing failures; predicts company in trouble despite strong designer.

Summary

Key Claims

• Dune pinball was not ready to be released; game lacks sufficient code and gameplay depth despite beautiful presentation

  high confidence · Kaneda's direct playtest at Pinfest; reports weak flippers, barren gameplay, feels like 'Batman 66 when it first came out'

• King Kong LE is not selling out as expected for a Keith Elwin game, signaling major market problem for Stern

  high confidence · Kaneda states 'The mighty Keith Elwin can't sell out of the model they need to sell out of' and claims Kong is not 'flying off the shelves'

• Stern withheld Spike 3 technology from King Kong to avoid raising prices further, despite needing volume

  medium confidence · Kaneda's interpretation: 'they've held Spike 3 back because they didn't want to jack the price up'

• Harry Potter reveal video will be released within two weeks; game is currently in production at Stern

  high confidence · Kaneda states: 'I have confirmation from that from distributors. Jack has been telling people that at Pinfest'

• Stern had no representatives present at Pinfest; demonstrates lack of community engagement compared to boutiques

  high confidence · Kaneda asks: 'Was anyone from Stern Pinball at Pinfest? No.' and criticizes their absence from community events

• Stern's new CMO has not introduced himself to the community or engaged publicly

  high confidence · Kaneda: 'Have you heard from him yet? Nope. Has he introduced himself to the community? Nope.'

• Using identical art packages across Pro/Premium/LE tiers was a marketing mistake; undermines LE differentiation

  high confidence · Kaneda criticizes the decision: 'Whoever made the decision to use the same art package across all three models, huge mistake. That person should be reprimanded.'

• Pokemon theme will not appeal to traditional pinball buyer demographic; boutique games like Back to the Future and Predator are better fits

  medium confidence · Kaneda's observation from walking Pinfest: 'Pokemon won't sell you more games than Back to the Future' and 'There is not a single... nobody in the crowd of a pinball show that looks like a Pokemon fan'

Notable Quotes

• “this game feels almost like Batman 66 did when it first came out. There's just no game here yet.”

  Kaneda @ early in Dune discussion — Summarizes core criticism of Dune's incomplete code/gameplay despite attractive presentation

• “The mighty Keith Elwin can't sell out of the model they need to sell out of. Not only that, the mighty Keith Elwin can't sell through these models.”

  Kaneda @ King Kong analysis — Central claim that Stern is in market trouble; even top designer's LE failing to generate expected demand

• “Stern Pinball does not have the themes that you and I want. I don't know what happened over there. I don't know why they were asleep at the wheel.”

  Kaneda @ mid-show analysis — Explains strategic licensing advantage gained by boutique manufacturers over Stern

• “They took advantage of their own buyers. They saw what was happening during COVID. And I understand that prices might have gone up a little bit, but they didn't just raise them a little bit.”

  Kaneda @ pricing criticism section — Charges Stern with exploiting goodwill during pandemic; core grievance about unfair pricing behavior

• “A Stern LE $12,500 with a topper max. Only 500. That's it. A Premium should be $8,999.99 and a Pro $6,500.”

  Kaneda @ pricing proposal — Specific pricing recommendations Kaneda sees as sustainable and fair; frames as 'meeting in the middle'

• “The way you lower prices is you stop spending money and they'll have to lower their prices. They're not going to go out of business.”

  Kaneda @ pricing philosophy — Core market philosophy: buyers have power to force pricing correction through non-purchase

• “If the LEs don't sell out, that negatively impacts the orders for Premiums and Pros. The LE selling out is quintessential. It's necessary. It is mandatory.”

  Kaneda @ LE market mechanics discussion — Explains cascading effect of LE demand failure on entire product tier ecosystem

Entities

Signals

• ?

  business_signal: Keith Elwin King Kong LE failing to sell out—fundamental signal of Stern's market trouble since LE demand drives Premium/Pro orders

  high · Kaneda: 'The mighty Keith Elwin can't sell out of the model they need to sell out of' and 'If the LEs don't sell out, that negatively impacts the orders for Premiums and Pros'

• ~

  sentiment_shift: Shift in buyer behavior: affluent collectors no longer pursuing FOMO-driven new box purchases; waiting for secondary market prices to stabilize before acquiring games

  high · Kaneda: 'people with the money aren't buying... they're not suckers... seeing everybody run in quickly and lose a gazillion dollars' and 'it is so easy now not buying a new inbox Stern'

• ?

  competitive_signal: Boutique manufacturers (Spooky, Barrels, Dutch) gaining strategic advantage through IP licensing Stern lost access to; community perceiving boutiques as more responsive and production-limited (desirable scarcity)

  high · Kaneda: 'Stern Pinball does not have the themes that you and I want' and 'if I'm going to spend $10,000 or more, I'd rather buy from Spooky because they're only going to make 888 units'

• ?

  design_philosophy: King Kong art direction fundamentally misaligned with theme; 'childlike' and 'cartoony' animations fail to convey terror/tension expected from King Kong property

  high · Kaneda: 'when you make King Kong like this with childlike animations, any feeling of terror... There's nothing. I'm sorry' and 'This is not King Kong'

• ?

  licensing_signal: Stern lost access to desirable IP (implied 'take my money now' themes) to boutique manufacturers; strategic error in licensing negotiations or theme selection