Episode 779: "The Most Honest Show All Year"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 44s·held·Mar 8, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda criticizes Godfather launch hype, Jersey Jack pricing strategy, and questions if pinball games justify their $15K+ price points.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a critical take on Jersey Jack's Godfather pinball launch, arguing the game is visually sparse compared to competitors like Pirates of the Caribbean despite its $15,000 price tag, and that the collector's edition/LE pricing strategy signals oversupply. He also criticizes the community for hype-driven pre-orders without gameplay experience and highlights production quality issues with Stern's $20,000 James Bond 60th Anniversary machine (missing shaker motors). Kaneda concludes that pinball is now a buyer's market with excess supply and warns that Galactic Tank Force late launch will face insufficient demand.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack announced 5,000 LE units for Godfather, which signals the market there's no scarcity value and games will depreciate immediately
high confidence · Kaneda, discussing JJP's business model and FOMO strategy
James Bond 60th Anniversary ($20,000) shipped without shaker motors despite being marketed with them and powder-coated armor
high confidence · Kaneda, reporting on first customer unboxings
Godfather has 29 ball paths but lacks meaningful interactive mechanisms like upper playfields, complex diverter behaviors, or cannon shots
high confidence · Kaneda, comparing design depth to Pirates of the Caribbean and other Eric Meunier games
Pinball is now a buyer's market with too much product supply causing games to depreciate 20-30% within months
medium confidence · Kaneda's market analysis based on historical precedent
The Godfather sculpts are cartoonish and jarring, more resembling generic mobster art than designs faithful to the film
high confidence · Kaneda's aesthetic criticism of game art direction
Nobody ordering Godfather has actually played the game; all hype is based on marketing materials designed to create FOMO
high confidence · Kaneda, critiquing community pre-purchase behavior
Stern intentionally does not disclose production caps on Premium/LE games to maintain FOMO and perceived scarcity
medium confidence · Kaneda, contrasting Stern's strategy with Jersey Jack's explicit 5,000 LE announcement
Godfather CE is the only worthwhile edition; LE will depreciate faster due to overly high production numbers
high confidence · Kaneda's pricing and value retention analysis
Games like Galactic Tank Force, Queen, and Scott Danesi title won't succeed because the market is saturated and buyers are out of money

Notable Quotes

“If you think that this game is loaded and packed, do me a favor. Turn off this podcast right now because I want you to live in your own selective world. I want you to live in your delusional world in which this game is packed and loaded.”
Kaneda @ opening segment — Sets confrontational tone and establishes Kaneda's intent to criticize the game despite community hype
“I've never seen more pinball people in my life turn into ball path bitches... You guys are so weird. It's like you act like creating 29 ball paths is all of a sudden a world under glass that's so packed.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Core criticism: community is celebrating quantity (ball paths) over quality (mechanical depth and world-building)
“The FOMO on the CE destroys the FOMO on the LE. So I think you're going to see LEs of this game tank in price right away.”
Kaneda @ pricing strategy discussion — Key market analysis of how JJP's production strategy undermines secondary market value for non-CE editions
“A knocker, a physical knocker is probably a $5 part, maybe $10 at most. And this is $15,000 and we are now celebrating that there's a knocker in a pinball machine.”
Kaneda @ pricing critique — Challenges the value proposition of $15K+ games by highlighting cheap components being marketed as premium features
“The greatest news that's happening in pinball right now is simply this. The entire hobby is now a buyer's market. And we should be celebrating that.”
Kaneda @ market analysis conclusion — Silver lining: despite oversupply and poor value, buyers now have leverage and negotiating power
“I don't think it's a good theme for pinball. I still don't think it's a good theme for pinball. And I still think those sculpts are just so weird and awkwardly jarring. They just take me out of the Godfather world.”
Kaneda @ theme and art critique — Reiterates core aesthetic concerns about the game's art direction vs. source material
“The reason why it's a buyer's market is people are just going to be out of money. Like how much money is in this hobby where you can have six games all $10,000 to $15,000? There's no way there's going to be buyers for all of these games.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyThe Godfathergame Eric Meunierperson Christopher Franchiperson

Signals

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product_concern: James Bond 60th Anniversary ($20K) units shipped missing shaker motors and lacking promised powder-coated armor, indicating quality control failures on Stern's flagship premium product
high · Kaneda reports 'The first owners that unboxed their James Bond 60th, they found out that they did not have a shaker motor installed in the game. The holes were drilled for the shaker motor, but no shaker motor to be found.'
$
market_signal: Pinball market is transitioning to a buyer's market with excessive new game supply (Godfather, Foo Fighters, Scooby Doo, Galactic Tank Force launching simultaneously) creating purchasing fatigue and budget exhaustion
high · Kaneda: 'The entire hobby is now a buyer's market... There's no money left in this hobby to go to anything else. Like, you've got Godfather money gobbled up. You've got freaking Foo Fighter money gobbled up. Scooby Doo money gobbled up.'
?
product_strategy: Jersey Jack explicitly announced 5,000 LE production units for Godfather, which Kaneda argues undercuts FOMO and signals the manufacturer expects LE oversupply; contrasts with Stern's strategy of not disclosing production caps
high · Kaneda: 'By Jersey Jack saying to everybody, we are going to make 5,000 limited edition games, what that is signaling to everybody is there is no reason to buy one right now... instantly too many out in the world.'
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design_innovation: Godfather criticized for emphasizing ball path quantity (29 paths) over meaningful interactive mechanical systems (lacking upper playfields, complex diverter behaviors, cannon shots, jump mechanisms) that create true world-building depth
high · Kaneda: 'Where are the mechanisms, people? Where are the mechanisms that are going to say wow... What's the things it's interacting with?... I didn't see the ball do anything like that or jump or disappear or do anything even like crazy.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.068

0:00

So I sent this song to the abandoned, I said what I meant and I've never pretended, and so many others do, intending just to please, if I can't get a point of view, could you turn me on a cheese? Sitter, Sitter, Sitter, Sitter, Sitter, Sitter, Sitter! Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. It is day two with the Godfather of Pinball in the world. I'm your host Kaneda. I'm pulling the arrows out of my back once again. I want to talk about what it's like, you know, now that we've absorbed what the game is, now that the wait is over, now that we see the design direction, we see the artwork, we see the topper, we see all of the ball paths, my gosh, you would think that a world under glass by many of you is defined by how many ball paths are in a game. I'm going to talk about that. And I just want to say this for everybody right now. Like, I'm glad the game is out. We knew it was Godfather for like a year and a half and now the game is available. And I want to talk about my feelings as I woke up today about the game because I've been reading Pinside. I've been hearing people say this is an instant classic. I've been hearing distributors say the game is sold out by now. And then I go to Jersey Jack's website and it's still available. I think they're shooting themselves in the foot between the collector's edition and the L.E. And I want to talk about that. Let me just start out right now by saying this right now. I have no problem being the bad guy right now. And here's what I want to say. If you think that this game is loaded and packed, do me a favor. Turn off this podcast right now because I want you to live in your own selective world. I want you to live in your delusional world in which this game is packed and loaded. Okay? So do me a favor. I'm going to give you a few minutes. Turn it off. Enjoy the game. Buy the game. Let's play some pinball. 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, ok, you ready? Here's the deal. Put this game next to Pirates of the Caribbean. Put this game next to Wizard of Oz. Put this game next to The Hobbit. Are we allowed to do that? We live in a pinball world now where these games are $15,000 for a Jersey Jack Collector's Edition, $13,000 for a Stern LE. Moving forward, every single game is the same price regardless of what's in it, regardless All those in there pain. You ready for this,hält? Oh, don't wanna be so debauch essay right now. Like, filled up with all these doctors, doctors preaching, Tánax Tejada's Puppeteer Co electrical machine flying in. They're in New York. In New York, New York, New York. That's been one of theicated cars in it. Just walked past,합정 Gazeta, suEZtána ést courageas, This is a game track, Things You Take First.♪ Pasatá fühня á ár алá top Pim Shed. Notice that the sculpts in this game look exactly like the sculpts from the Medieval Madness topper. Now Christopher Franchi did that topper, so I'm thinking maybe the same people made the sculpts in this game. And the more I look at these sculpts, and I'm just gonna say it, and don't kill Kaneda, don't kill the messenger, it looks like the design direction for this game was not Godfather the movie, it was mousing around. Go Google Image, mousing around the pinball machine, and look at the gangster, the wise guy, you know, the big wise guy, SCおб ,

4:02

Hey Chris, you've been begging for a world under glass for all of these years, and how are you not praising this game on launch day? Well look, here's the deal. What I see in this game isn't really a world per se, I see a mobster themed game. I see a lot of shots, I see a lot of pathways, I see a lot of like, sculpts of like, cartoonish looking mobsters, but I don't really see a world under glass. And I definitely don't see an interactive world under glass. Now look, I know you've got the New York City skyline, you've got the Statue of Liberty, you've got the horse head fountain pop bumper put exactly where Keith Elwin put his pop bumper in Godzilla. You got it all, right? You got it all. But I don't feel when I look at this game like there is a 3D world under glass coming up off the wood of the game. The way I feel when I look at Eric Minier's Pirates of the Caribbean. The way I feel when I look at Eric Minier's Guns and Roses. So out of Eric Minier's three games, and I look at this game next to those two, this game looks much more empty than his first two efforts. Maybe Guns and Roses and Pirates of the Caribbean don't have as many diverters, but what they do have is more of a three-dimensional world under glass coming at me. And both of those games were much cheaper than this game. And so here we are now in pinball. I'm not allowed to evaluate. The only game you would buy is the collector edition There is no reason to buy the LE in this game Let talk about that real quick Jersey Jack marketing and business model now is absolutely weird Because look at these two games Why would you ever buy an LE of this game Everything you're really going to want, right? The real package is in the collector's edition. It's got the topper, it's got the armor, it's got the shin guards going on, it's got everything you really want in the game. The inner art plates, it's got everything you want, right? And if you have $12,000 to buy a non-essential pinball machine, you definitely have $15,000. You know, it's like when you get the top of the line Mercedes, are you really going to not get the heated headrests? Like you're going to get them. And that's what pinball is like. If you have 12, you have 15. And the only way to save any value in these games is to go with the collector's edition. And by Jersey Jack saying to everybody, we are going to make 5,000 limited edition games, what that is signaling to everybody is there is no reason to buy one right now. We're going to make way more than the market even wants. And if you buy one, your game is going to tank in value overnight. And I didn't say it, they did. There's a reason why Stern does not put a cap on its premiums. They don't tell you how many premiums they're going to make. And there's a little bit of ignorance is bliss, right? Stern's always guessing how many premiums of Godzilla are there or Elvira and Stern is smart because if Stern said we're going to make a thousand LEs and five thousand premiums of Foo Fighters, all of a sudden you don't really want one. It feels like there's instantly too many out in the world and let's be honest ladies and gentlemen, hardly any pinball machine is selling 6,000 units at these prices. The FOMO on the CE destroys the FOMO on the LE. So I think you're going to see LEs of this game tank in price right away. And the CE is the only package really to get. Now Will, they sell all 1,000 CEs of Godfather at $15,000 a pop. This is the other thing I love about this community because this community, look, we love pinball. Whenever a new pinball machine comes out, we're excited. And I love seeing people excited about this game. I love people making hyperbolic claims about a game they've never played. I love people getting super excited on a level. Look, I should not be saying this game isn't great and I have not said how this game is, right? I am not here to tell you the game isn't any good. I am not here to tell you the game isn't any fun. I am not here to tell you any of that because I have not played it and guess what? Neither have you. And nobody who's ordered this game has played it. The only materials everyone is going off of are two bits of material designed by people INDISC. damned Love for a day out and a half. Why are we, as a community, supporting this practice? You're going to take two bits of content designed to create FOMO and then go in non-refundable? Especially after we saw what happened with Toy Story, especially after we saw that they They made so many Guns N' Roses LEs to the point where nobody even wants one anymore. So why wouldn't you just wait? Do you need it right now? And the other funny part is this. So many of you are so hypocritical. You hated on the Godfather theme and because your expectations are so damn low, you're looking at this game and nothing could ever disappoint you. You know what I'm saying? The only way you can be disappointed is if you actually cared about the theme. It's why we're all so disappointed about Toy Story because we love Toy Story and we see what's missing from the game. And because nobody really wanted Godfather, there's nothing missing in Eric's design because there's nothing you even wanted in the design of the game. And so look, it's probably a good move that they put out a game with zero expectations, So it's absolutely elevated everyone's reception of the game. But when I hear people saying that this is an instant classic and you haven't even seen yet what the freaking game is like. You have not seen someone flip a ball for like five minutes to see what the music is like, how fast are the shots, how are they integrating the movie with the game itself. Like don't forget people, this is not a pinball machine that is going to take you through This is like Game of Thrones meets Cactus Canyon. It's like choose your mafia house. Okay so right there that not what the Godfather movie is about And I get it they going on a different pathway And in the video itself they said they had to like rethink the Godfather storyline to fit in pinball format And that fine I really don have a problem with that But I need to see how that gonna work I need to see how the clips are gonna integrate into the game I need to see what that gonna be like in a pinball experience And none of you clowns who are saying this is the greatest game ever or JJP's best game ever have even played it! And I'm just gonna say it right now, and look, if you have kids in the car, close their ears, cause I'm going to create a new phrase in pinball right now, and it is going to use a word that's not that bad, it's the B word, B-I-T-C-H-E-S, and kids, I try to keep this show clean, but I've gotta say this phrase, they have launched this game, and reading pin side, I've never seen more pinball people in my life turn into ball path bitches. And I mean it. I've never seen so many ball path bitches. You guys are so weird. It's like you act like creating 29 ball paths is all of a sudden a world under glass that's so packed. Oh my gosh, how did they do this? Oh, and when you play the game, you're never gonna know where the ball is coming from. Are you freaking kidding me? I'm looking at this game. I'm looking at the diverters. Like none of these diverters are operating the way the diverter works in the toad and ramp that's got the whirlpool and then you've got the genie that fires the fireball at you. Where are the mechanisms, people? Where are the mechanisms that are going to say, wow, like, oh, 29 ball paths, 29. I kept hearing it over and over and over again. And then I thought to myself, this is it now. We're evaluating a world under glass based on ball paths. And the analogy I'm going to use right now is imagine going into an amusement park, right? I think a pinball machine is kind of like a world under glass amusement park, right? In which each interesting mechanism is like a different ride in the amusement park. And imagine going to an amusement park in which there's not many rides at all, but you're all excited because there's a lot of pathways. There's a lot of walkways to go around the amusement park, but what the freak are you walking to? Like I see the ball can go, yeah, it can go left, right, left, right, left, right. But what's it going to? What's the things it's interacting with? All right, I get it. Eric made a game with flow, so I can't wait to see how well it flows. We know Jersey Jack games don't flow the best so hopefully this is their best flowing game. But people are also saying like it's got way more in it than Toy Story and I'm like I don't know guys. I don't know if that's true like does it? Does it really? Like I saw the video and look I'm not defending Toy Story but even though there's a lot of diverters and ball pass I'm just gonna say right now. What's more fun in life? Walking down a bunch of different pathways or going over a jump? And at least Toy Story's got a jump! And when I saw all the gameplay from freakin' Godfather, I didn't see the ball do anything like that or jump or disappear or do anything even like crazy. It didn't load into a locking mechanism that was crazy. Nothing! Nothing! What have we become, people? Go watch the stream of Pirates of the Caribbean. Go see what the ball does in that game. Go see the upper playfield. Go see the cannon shot. Go see the whirlpool. Go see all of that stuff happening in that game. And then go watch this. And this is what pinball has become is the distributors have won, the manufacturers have won. It's not cranky Kaneda. They want you to buy these games at these prices. They want you to turn off your history. They want you to forget what used to be in pinball. They want you to forget what this designer used to make in pinball machines. Do you think the bomb in this game is even close to what it was in Pirates of the Caribbean, people? You're absolutely out of your minds. How much do you think a diverter costs? How much do you think knockers cost? I mean, I keep saying, oh, they put two knockers up in the topper and people are losing their minds. People, a knocker, a physical knocker is probably a $5 part, maybe $10 at most. And this is $15,000 and we are now celebrating that there's a knocker in a pinball machine. Everybody, I love this hobby. I love you guys. I love how animated everybody gets. I love it. This is great. We have more options than we have ever before. And the real story of pinball right now is simply this. The greatest thing to happen in pinball. It's not Christopher Franchi's return to art on a game. It's not Eric Menier's Jersey Jack number eight. It's not any of that. The greatest news that's happening in pinball right now is simply this. The entire hobby is now a buyer's market. And we should be celebrating that. A buyer's market is now here. You now have all of the control. These games are not selling out in day one. When people buy these games, they're going to have to sell their older games to make room for all these new games. And when that happens, you're going to start to get deals again. I love the fact that we have these options. I love the fact that all these pinball companies are releasing all these products all at the same time. It is going to make it even more so of a buyer's market. The prices are too high. Everybody knows that. If you don't run to these high prices right away, trust me, you're going to be able, if you really want a godfather, in just a few months, LEs will go for 10, CEs will go for 11, 5, 12. It's going to happen. The same thing will happen with Foo Fighter. It's a buyer's market and it's great. And every single pinball machine that comes off the lot is going to depreciate in value. The distributors are going to get richer than ever before. It's gonna happen because they have so many more cars to sell and that's fine. I don't begrudge them. That's what they do. The manufacturers, some of them are gonna fail. There just too much out there I don see games like Queen succeeding I don see games like Galactic Tank Force succeeding now I don see these like games on the fringes of pinball like Scott Danesi game You're not going to be able to do it because the other thing is this. The reason why it's a buyer's market is people are just going to be out of money. Like how much money is in this hobby where you can have six games all $10,000 to $15,000? There's no way there's going to be buyers for all of these games. And so that's really good news. And I know that I get strident. I know that I get very like wound up about this stuff, but I'm not offended by Godfather. I think it's a little bit of a weird game. I get it. I think they did the best with what they had. I don't think it's a good theme for pinball. I still don't think it's a good theme for pinball. And I still think those sculpts are just so weird and awkwardly jarring. They just take me out of the Godfather world. When you look at the sculpts in Pirates of the Caribbean, they don't take you out of the world. Look at the Guns N' Roses sculpts. They don't take you out of the GNR world. And when I look at those sculpts, it's just not Godfather. It is just not Godfather. And look, I'm happy for you guys. You get it. So don't be mad at me. Don't punch me at Texas Pinball Festival. And that's that, everybody. It's just pinball. Remember that. It is just pinball. I am not here to ruin your fun of the hobby. I'm not trying to be overly toxic. I'm just trying to encourage everybody at these prices stop saying stupid stuff. It doesn't cost a lot of money to make ball paths, okay? It doesn't. What costs money is actually engineering complex mechanisms. What costs money is actually engineering upper playfields, lower playfields, making it all work. You know, that's what costs money in pinball. And the ultimate thing is this. Look, almost every single pinball machine is fun. Almost every single person who's in this community is a cool person and almost every single pinball company has the talent required to make a decent game. Now not everybody but almost all of them, okay? And look, that's where I'm at with this game. I can't wait to see the stream of it. I can't wait to see how it all comes together because people you're forgetting! Are you forgetting that sometimes Jersey Jack can be overly complex? Sometimes they can have like slot machine music. So I just want to see how it all comes together. I think it's way too early to slam the door on the game. It's also way too early to praise it as an instant classic. And I think that's a fair assessment of this machine. What else do I want to say this week? So Stern Pinball has sent people the $20,000 James Bond 60th, the most expensive pinball machine of all time, was supposed to come with amazing powder coated armor. It's not, it's just the matte black. Every game was supposed to come with a shaker motor installed. And the first owners that unboxed their James Bond 60th, they found out that they did not have a shaker motor installed in the game. The holes were drilled for the shaker motor, but no shaker motor to be found in a James Bond game where when he orders his martini, it is shaken, not stirred. And this is why Stern Pinball, every once in a while, pulls an embarrassing move. And I think this is just the karma of this dumb machine. And I think for everyone who bought this $20,000 game, I am laughing at you from New York City. Trust me, I am laughing at you. It doesn't mean we're not friends. Neil McCray, I know how much money you got. I know some of you guys bought it. Don't cancel your subscription. But just trust me. At 53rd Street and 3rd Avenue, Kaneda is laughing at you right now. Because you never should have bought this game for this much money. And Stern doesn't even care enough to go over each of these, the most expensive game they've ever sold. They don't even care to go over it with a fine tooth comb and make sure everything is installed properly. What a joke. And you sent them a message that this was enough to charge $20,000 for. Everybody, thank you for being a subscriber. More to come. I mean, Galactic Tank Force batting clean up in this entire crazy month. I don't know what David Fix is thinking. He waited so long. There's no money left. There is no money left in this hobby to go to anything else. Like, you've got Godfather money gobbled up. You've got freaking Foo Fighter money gobbled up. Scooby Doo money gobbled up. All of these companies selling product right now and David Fix is sitting on his hands thinking he's got the clean up pinball machine that's going to knock it out of the park. Trust me, I've seen it. It is loaded in a way, in a weird original IP way, but he has waited too long. He's going to learn a hard lesson in marketing. You can't do it like this. He should just delay launching this game for a couple months. Let these games be made. Let some people fall out of love with Scooby Doo and maybe fall out of love with Foo Fighters and fall out of love with Godfather because that also happens in this hobby people, right? Every new game is the best game ever and Kaneda's a loser and why does anyone listen to that troll? And then all of a sudden what happens? Most of the games we get them, we realize it's just another pinball machine, everything is overpriced and we're on to the next. Well, let's get on to the next show. This show's over.