Episode 844: "Is Stern Fleecing LE Buyers Now?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·23m 10s·analyzed·Sep 11, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.038

TL;DR

Stern's 30% LE price hikes kill collector loyalty while market power shifts to buyers.

Summary

Kaneda critiques Stern Pinball aggressive pricing strategy on Limited Edition machines (30% increases to $13,000+), arguing the company is 'fleecing' collectors who have historically been their most loyal buyers. He also addresses Spooky Pinball premature code releases causing bugs, Haggis Pinball lack of production transparency, and the shifting power dynamics in the secondary market where buyers now hold leverage over desperate distributors.

Key Claims

Stern Pinball has increased Limited Edition prices by 30% (e.g., from $10,000 to $13,000), the largest price increase in company history
high confidence · Kaneda references data analysis showing price spike and compares Avatar LE ($10k) to current games ($13k), James Bond LE at $20k for 60th Anniversary
Most new Stern pinball machines released since 2023 lose 10-20% in value within months of release
high confidence · Kaneda states 'almost every single new machine that has come out, almost every single new machine has lost about 10 to 20% in value'
Pulp Fiction LE is the only recent game holding its value and making money for speculators
medium confidence · Kaneda cites seeing someone sell their Pulp Fiction spot for $2,500 over deposit; notes game has 1,000 units planned
Limited Edition games no longer have meaningful cosmetic/feature differences from Premium editions—they're nearly identical
medium confidence · Kaneda compares James Bond, Venom, and Foo Fighters LE vs Premium side-by-side, noting artwork/translight are the same or barely different
Haggis Pinball is using video production as marketing theater rather than showing actual factory production and worker transparency
medium confidence · Kaneda criticizes lack of Facebook Live factory tours, no visible workers, machines as props; suspects small team assembling handful per week
Distributors now desperately need to move inventory and are actively pitching consumers instead of vice versa
medium confidence · Kaneda describes power shift: 'They banging on our doors to buy these damn Limited Edition because they need us to take their inventory'
Spooky Pinball releases code updates without beta testing, using customers as QA and causing regressions
high confidence · Kaneda describes pattern of day-one bugs reported on Pinside after Halloween and Scooby-Doo code releases; recommends 10-15 person beta tester program
Jersey Jack Pinball overpriced two 'mediocre games' (Louis Toy Story, The Godfather) at $15,000, the highest pinball prices ever

Notable Quotes

“Did Sam Stern Pinball go after the Golden Goose and kill it? Did they look at their buyer base that has kept them afloat with all of these super expensive games?”
Kaneda @ ~27:00 — Core thesis: Stern's pricing strategy threatens the collector base that generates highest margins
“For $13,000, no topper, additional accessories cost extra. Mostly not free shipping for most of you out there. For $13,000, is the price justified?”
Kaneda @ ~28:00 — Illustrates sticker shock and lack of value-add at premium price point
“The only thing that makes an James Cameron Avatar Limited Edition special now in the world of Sam Stern Pinball is its price. And I don't like that.”
Kaneda @ ~30:00 — Critiques erosion of LE desirability—scarcity/craftsmanship replaced by pure price premium
“Stop using your buyers as your beta testers. Get like 15 people or 10 diehard Spooky Pinball fanatics. Make those people your beta testers and have them test on the game for a few weeks before you release a code to the public.”
Kaneda @ ~16:00 — Direct advice to Spooky Pinball on QA process; practical recommendation backed by willingness of community
“Where's that game that is like, take my money now. That's what we're waiting for. I haven't seen a game like that in a long time.”
Kaneda @ ~59:00 — Indicates absence of genuinely compelling new releases driving FOMO; market waiting for breakout title
“The power is now ours. The power is in the hands of the consumer and the buyer. And we're just waiting.”
Kaneda @ ~53:00 — Describes fundamental market shift from manufacturer/distributor power to buyer leverage
“Every single James Cameron Avatar Limited Edition now is easy to get. Every single one. And FOMO isn't really that alive and well anymore.”
Kaneda @ ~21:00 — Quantifies FOMO collapse—LE scarcity no longer creates demand urgency

Entities

Stern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Haggis Pinballcompany American Pinballcompany Chicago Gaming Companycompany Kanedaperson

Signals

?
business_signal: Haggis Pinball likely operating with small production team and low weekly output despite large facility footprint
medium · Kaneda notes lack of factory transparency, absence of visible workers in videos, refusal to do live factory tours; suspects inefficient operation
?
business_signal: Distributor inventory crisis developing; heavy stocks of Venom, James Bond, Godfather, GTF unable to move
medium · Kaneda predicts 'six and seven figures of inventory pile up' and describes distributors 'desperate' to clear stock; GTF polarization hampering sales
$
market_signal: Absence of compelling new releases; market waiting for breakout title to drive fresh FOMO
medium · Kaneda states 'I haven't seen a game like that [take my money now] in a long time' and encourages mystery manufacturers to launch at Pinball Expo
$
market_signal: Power shift from manufacturers/distributors to buyers; distributors now actively pitching inventory to consumers
high · Kaneda describes distributors 'banging on our doors' to move Venom, James Bond, Godfather, GTF inventory; reversed from pre-2023 scarcity dynamics
$
market_signal: FOMO collapse: Limited Edition scarcity no longer drives demand; LE machines are now 'easy to get'
high · Kaneda lists Godfather CE, Toy Story 4 CE, Foo Fighters LE, James Bond LE, Venom LE as examples where supply now exceeds demand
$

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.069

0:00

Foojie like Natty in the styrofoam, squeaky squeaky in the truck bed, all the way home. It's the Alabama Jam and she my Dixieland delight. That's how we do, how we do. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Oh, welcome everybody. Happy Monday. It's Canada's Pinball Podcast. It was nice hanging out with people on the Saturday Morning Spectacular. We took a few weeks off. We went to the gym. We got a new positive attitude and everybody came right back. We've got 610 club members. Thank you, everybody, for being a member of the show. So here's what I want to talk about on this episode. A couple of news items. Well, maybe not really news items, but some suggestions I have for a company out there named Spooky Pinball. I'm in the thread. I'm reading about people downloading the latest code updates for games like Halloween, games like Scooby-Doo, and people are having all of these bug issues. Now, look, the one bug issue we like having is bug over at Spooky. but man all of these buggy software updates at spooky pinball i want to talk about that for a little bit and then i want to make this show topic about one simple thing is stern burning the collector market in pinball have they taken the collectible market and have they sort of fleeced their own buyer base over the last couple of years and is it going to work out for them in the long run. We're all waiting for new games to come out. We're all waiting to see if Chicago Pinball Expo will reveal new games to the world. But if you've been on my Facebook page and you went to Pinside, someone did a great data analysis of how much game prices have increased over the last couple of years. And prices were really steady for many, many years, like really steady. The prices of pros, the prices of premiums, the prices of LEs, they held pretty steady. There were marginal increases over time, but now we're seeing a spike. And this is not the good spike system we've seen at Stern with their computing boards. This is a spike in just, hey, you used to spend $10,000 on an LE. Now it's going to be $13,000 for every single one. You used to spend like $7,500, $8,000 on a premium. Now it's $10,000 or $9,500 for every single premium. And can this last much longer. We will talk about that, but it's really that price gouging at the top I want to talk about because we all know that the limited edition games, they don't sell in mass volume. Well, they didn't used to when there was only 500 and it was truly limited, but there's something about the way Stern Pinball, I think, is treating the high-end collectible market and the collector out there, and those are the very people that you don't want to piss off. I'm going to talk about why you can't leave those people behind. All right, before we get there, let's talk about a few things I've also been noticing. What is with people who have bought a Venom LE and are already selling it for a loss? I don't get this. I think Delt used to be a member of this show and he does this frequently. He buys every single new pinball machine, but I don't get how people are already selling Venom LEs for $12,500 and the game hasn't even been made yet. How is anybody still speculating in pinball? And what I mean by speculating, how is anybody allowing FOMO to get the best of them where they're committing to buying one of these new games with non-refundable deposits? And we know that a lot of dealers and distros now, if you want to go in on a Stern LE now, you've got to commit once that game is revealed. And everyone's learning this lesson right now. It's a fool's commitment. There is only really a few times, maybe every couple of years where you better act quickly or you're not going to be able to get the game for MSRP. And what we've seen since like 2023 began is almost every single new pinball machine that has come out, almost every single new machine has lost about 10 to 20% in value over its new in box price, 10 to 20% loss in value. If you just wait it, you can get it for much cheaper. there's really only one game that has held its value and actually is making money for people that speculate it and that is Pulp Fiction LE and that's kind of funny too because that game was revealed in March it's really not even going to be made until March of 2024 but I just saw someone sold their spot for $2,500 over the $2,500 deposit they put down on the game you know there's going to be a thousand Pulp Fiction LEs. And I do think this is going to happen with Pulp Fiction. I think if you want to make the most money you're ever going to make on the game, I would flip your spot right now because a thousand units of anything is a lot. I think it's going to be really easy to get a Pulp Fiction LE once they actually start making them. You know, right now people are just trading in hypotheticals because nobody knows exactly when the game is going to come out and the game is not real yet. Once they start cranking these games out and there are 1,000 of them in boxes in the world and they were what, like $9,500 or $9,750? Once that's real and that game comes out exactly at the same time Jaws comes out, exactly at the same time other games are going to come out, we're going to see new games from maybe Dutch Pinball by the end of the year, a New Jersey Jack game, a new game from Spooky Pinball, maybe Texas Chainsaw Massacre. The cycle's going to start up again. And Pulp Fiction's had a lot of hype, but I've never seen a game where the hype continues year after year after year. And it's a little bit of a weird thing, right? Because we've seen the game, we've got hyped by the gameplay video, and now what's going to happen in March of 2024 Are we still going to be clamoring for a Pulp Fiction or are we going to move on to the latest and greatest from Stern and everybody else That why I wouldn worry if you really want a Pulp Fiction LE I think you going to be able to get one I don care what the game is anymore Every time a new game comes out now, when the high-end trim has 1,000 units, go in the marketplace. Look at Godfather CE, Toy Story 4 CE. Look at Foo Fighters LE. Look at James Bond LE. Look at Venom LE. Every single LE now is easy to get. Every single one. And FOMO isn't really that alive and well anymore. And for any of you out there who bought these games without playing them first, without thinking about it, I almost feel bad for you. Because what excites me about these high prices now and everybody's just waiting is you actually get to play the game. Think about this novel concept. You actually get to go to shows and play the game and make sure you really want it before you have to commit to a non-refundable deposit on an LE or a collector's edition. You know, who out there, let's just say you really, really love The Godfather and you really love the collector's edition of The Godfather. Who out there wouldn't rather spend $12,500 on one than $15,000? Speaking of Godfather CE, did you see the guy who like hacked up his topper because he's in a low ceiling game room? And then he made like the topper into two parts that connect to the sides of the game. Look, you know, it's his game. He can do what he wants with it. Would I do that? No. And the main reason I would never do that because now you can like never really sell that game because anyone who buys a Godfather CE is going to want to have the topper with the game. And so if I were him, I would have just left the topper off, put it in a box. Don't do that because now you've just ruined maybe the only thing that really makes that game special because all the other ornamentation is available on the freaking LE now with the new accessory package from Jersey Jack Pinball. You know what I'm going to do? I might buy the accessory package for Jersey Jack Pinball's The Godfather, but I'm not going to buy The Godfather Pinball Machine. I'm looking at Killian's crib right now. I think this crib would look great if I put those silver leg bracket things on the sides of Killian's crib. I don't think anyone's ever done this before. Bought an accessory kit for a pinball machine to use on their child's crib, not on a pinball machine itself. I think I'm going to do that. I'm going to call Joe at Pinball Star and see what kind of deal I can get on just those leg bolt things that add silver. I don't know. You just knock into them. I don't even know what the point of them is. I think people are gonna learn their lesson about speculation, all right? Let's talk real quickly about spooky code updates. How many times do we have to go into the spooky threads and listen to people who have downloaded the latest code and they're having issues with the code? It's usually like spooky's adding stuff that's new to the game and then that messes up older things that were working properly before the new code was installed. And there's an easy solution here. And Spooky Pinball, I know you listen to this show. What you need to do before you release a code to the public, stop using your buyers as your beta testers. All you need to do is get like 15 people or 10 diehard spooky fanatics who play their games all the time. Make those people your beta testers and have them bang on the game for a few weeks before you released a code to the public. I mean, how many times are we going to see them release a code? And then instantly, I mean, on day one, people who are banging on the machine, they find the issues right away. I know you're excited. I know you want people to see the potential of the games they bought. I know you're putting a lot into these machines code-wise, but you need to slow down.

9:29

Take a pause and make sure that what you release, you've gone over it with a fine comb and caught all the potential issues. And that doesn't mean there's not going to be issues down the road, but it's feeling like you're just releasing stuff way too early. So that's my advice to Spooky. And if you ask people on Pinside Spooky, hey, show of hands, who wants to be beta testers for our new code? You would easily get like 50 people that would do it for free. You don't even have to spend any money to get quality control testing with your company. I can't be a beta tester because I don't even play pinball these days because I've been waiting for Jack Barr to get a venom before I go back over there. I hope he gets it sometime soon. Oh, man. What else is going on in the pinball world? We saw a video from Haggis Pinball in which Damien is telling us the games are going to be done. The fathoms are going to be done by the end of the year. Okay, well, take his word for it. But how many times are we going to get a guy? And he does this every single time. How many videos are we going to get from the factory in which we see no factory workers? We see no games being built. They're using their own machines as props to convince us everything is going well at the factory. The one thing Damien still will not do for any of us, he will not go Facebook Live on a random Wednesday and show us how many people are working there. How many games are they making a week? None of it. He's not transparent. And it's so obvious why he's going to this Newcastle pinball show, which he shouldn't even be going to. He should be finishing all the fathoms because I have friends who have waited like nine months for games. What he should be doing is that. But the reason why he's going to the show, it's so damn obvious. They didn't sell that many centaurs. And he needs to sell more centaurs and lock in deposits from people who don't know the backstory on what's gone on with the fathom builds. He needs to get that new money. Rob Peter to pay Paul. He needs to get those new orders so he can finish those fathom machines by the end of the year and pay for all of his rent and his overhead and everything else going on there But there is no way that this big factory that Damien put his company into there is no way they are efficiently making money if it's not running properly. And I think it's just him and a few people screwing these games together and they're making just a handful of them a week. And I get it, but is that good enough? Is that good enough to keep Haggis Pinball afloat for a long time? And we shall see, people. But again, the fact that he just won't walk around the factory, I don't understand. Like, I'll give you a tour of my apartment. I'll give you a tour of where I work on my nine to five marketing career. Why would I hide what's going on? If you want to convince people that production is going and it's on schedule, then show us. Just walk around. I don't even care if it's two or three people. But why can't you just show us? Here's what production at Haggis Pinball looks like. And that is a red flag to me. All right. So Stern Pinball and the collectors and all of these individuals out there that have been buying these Stern LEs year after year after year, do you see what's happening? I think people looked at that visual, that data chart that I put up on my Facebook page, and that shows you very crystal clearly. Stern didn't just take the price up a little bit. They took it up a lot. And we're talking about a 30% increase in price. The biggest significant price increase in the history of Stern Pinball by a lot. And it wasn't just the LEs that went up a lot. The premiums went up a lot too. The pros didn't go up as much exponentially. But man, those LE buyers, when you think about it, I feel like everybody is just feeling this lately. For $13,000, no topper, additional accessories cost extra. Mostly not free shipping for most of you out there. For $13,000, did Stern Pinball go after the Golden Goose and kill it? Did they look at their buyer base that has kept them afloat with all of these super expensive games? Because that's where the real profit margin is with them. The LEs are where they make the most money easily. Easily. So why couldn't they just be good enough with doubling the amount of LEs they made? That's the question I want to ask you. When a Godzilla LE was $10,500 and they sold all of them, wasn't that enough for Stern? All right, let's just say they go from $10,500 to $11,000. They doubled the amount of LEs they would make, which instantly made each one not as collectible. It's like the only thing that makes an LE special now in the world of Stern Pinball is its price. And I don't like that. It never used to be that way. That wasn't what made the LE special. What made the LE special was that it was truly limited, and there was really like extra stuff in the game where you could somewhat, and I mean this, it was always this debate. You could somewhat justify the difference between an LE and a premium. But even when you look at these latest LEs, like James Bond Premium and James Bond LE, look at those two games next to each other. They almost look exactly the same. Look at Venom LE next to Venom Premium. They almost look exactly the same. I don't even think Stern is changing the artwork on the Translight between Venom Premium and Venom LE. And even with like Foo Fighters, they almost look exactly the same. The cabinet artwork on Foo Fighters Premium and LE, it's just a different color, but it's exactly the same artwork. Did Stern not expect us to see this stuff? Like they're actually putting less in it to differentiate the game. and then they're going to charge us $3,000 more over what Godzilla Ellie was. And it's a hard pill to swallow. And when you see it, there's just something about seeing it visually like that. It makes you say to yourself, well, wait a minute. Why is this pinball machine where they're not putting any more or any extra into it? Why am I paying this much more? Is your company giving you a 30% raise? Mine isn't. In fact, it's been the opposite where I work. they froze everybody's salary increases for the last two years if you were at a certain level. So I'm not making as much money as I was two years ago. Inflation is eating away at everything else. Whenever I go to spend money, it feels like just dinner for two in New York City. Get ready to drop 150 to 200 bucks. And I'm starting to travel more. I'm flying more. I'm spending money on other things. And so when I look at these pinball prices and they've gone up more than anything else in my life. Like the increase in a pinball price is more than my local restaurants increasing their prices. It's more than the auto industry. It's more than anywhere else. 30% more, 40% more on some of these titles. And it's like, where does Stern's greed end? And that's my other question is where does it end? Why did they price James Bond 60th at $20,000? They put that price tag on it somewhere within the halls of Stern. And you know, it was like Seth Davis's decision. That's how they feel about us. And not only did Stern price it at that, but how many people out there who sold the game were telling all of us, oh, they priced it right because you should see where secondhand game sales are going and they know what they're doing. Now those same people that were saying that are selling this freaking game for $14,000. $14,000. Are they apologizing for how off they were on how they were trying to convince you that this game was worth $20,000? Nope, not a single apology. It's funny to me watching the way it's all shifting in favor of us, the buyer. No longer is the power in the hands of the distributor where we're banging on their doors trying to get on an LE list The exact opposite is happening now What are they doing They banging on our doors to buy these damn LEs because they need us to take their James Bond inventory off their hands They need us to take their Venom inventory off their hands They're desperate to get rid of their Godfather inventory. Oh my gosh, are they desperate to get rid of their Galactic Tank Force inventory? There are like distributors out there saying, hey, this game's a lot of fun. You can buy it from me now. And then the next post on Pinside is people playing it at a show and being like, this game is total trash. American Pinball needs to rethink everything. So who's right? Right? I've never seen a game as polarizing as Galactic Tank Force. But of course, distributors who have that game sitting in inventory, what do you think they're going to tell you about the game? Of course, they're going to tell you they're loving it and they're having so much fun playing it because they need to sell you one. And look, it's so funny to watch all of this because the power is now ours. The power is in the hands of the consumer and the buyer. And we're just waiting. It's so funny to watch all of my pinball friends that are rushing at these things like it's 2019. And I've got a bunch of friends that have done that. They haven't changed their behavior. And every single one of my pinball friends who has not changed their behavior, they are losing money hand over fist. And look, some of them can afford to lose money hand over fist. But for the rest of us, how much fun is it sitting on the sidelines every few weeks going into the pin side marketplace and seeing all the deals on all of these new in box games? That's where the deals are now. Now, look, I would argue I don't even know if they're deals because all of these games were so overpriced to begin with that I don't even know where the bottom is. We know where the ceiling is. The ceiling is where they started these games with MSRP. But when you think about it, it's just kind of comical to see the new in box pinball space, not even know what to do next. All these companies strategies are not working out. And then you go to the used pinball market and it's still stupid. It's still stupid land where like people think every used game now is worth so much money and they're not moving. You just don't see sale pending as much as you used to. Games used to be priced right and they would move pretty quickly. Now games are priced so high up, they're not moving at all. And I love it. I love seeing this because it just shows each and every one of us that like He-Man said, we do have the power to control the pinball marketplace. And Stern Pinball has led the charge in killing the Golden Goose. And Jersey Jack idiotically followed them by pricing two of the most mediocre games they've ever made at the highest price pinball has ever been priced next to a few super limited edition games. Was Jersey Jack really thinking they were going to sell Toy Story for $15,000 and The Godfather for $15,000? That's what they think about us? You know, if you have money, if you're rich and you make a lot of money, you became rich because you're very discerning with how you spend your money. And that's why I love it. Rich people are smart. Last time I checked, rich people are really smart and they don't like losing money on any investment. And so you're not going to fool anybody. Like who is fooled by this stuff? And so the next few months are going to be so eye-opening because what's going to happen over the next few months, mark my words, people, as we head into the holidays and as distributors are seeing six and seven figures of inventory pile up inside their factories, they're not used to it. We are going to get spammed like never before from freaking distributors to help them out of their inventory issues. And you're going to hear more and more. I need you to buy this. I need you to buy that. We just got this used game. And they're going to have to work harder than ever to make those deals happen. And the distributors that are hustling are going to be the only ones that survive because you're not going to be able to sit back anymore and just have people bang on your door for the next LE because that doesn't work. You know what I really want? I want a game that makes me want to bang on a distributor door. I want a game that makes me want to be on the LE list. I haven't seen a game like that in a long time. I haven't. I've seen some good games. There's been some decent games this year. There's been some total misses. But man, where's that game that is like, take my money now. That's what we're waiting for. And man, it's a lot of money now. It's a lot of money now they want to take. So I think Stern has made a mistake. I think if I were them, they're going to need to figure something out. because every game's not going to be a Keith Elwin game. Every game's not going to be a AAA theme. And I don't think people are going to fall for it. And I think they're going to start to see more and more distributors not order every single new Stern that comes out because they gamble now and the risk. They're not going to be able to make enough money on Jaws to make up for all the money they lost on Venom if they have to put in a huge Venom order, right? Because what do you do with all that inventory? If you want to get this many Jaws machines, you have to commit to buying this many Venoms. You're going to get screwed. Like you're going to be burning the candle at both ends and it's not going to work out. Oh, everybody, happy Monday, Canadian Spinball Podcast. I also can't wait for one of these new games to come out. One of these mystery companies. Now's the window. You should get your game out now and have it playable at Expo. You know, there's nothing really else happening in the pinball world right now. It would be the perfect time to drop a new surprise into the pinball space. Everybody, happy Monday. I'll be back this week with more shows. Thank you for being a club member. I always enjoy putting on the headphones, talking into this mic about pinball for like an hour a week. And I love the fact that you guys get this content exclusively. This is still my favorite thing to do. Saturday morning is fun, but I love this because I love how we can just pick a topic, stay focused on it, talk about it, and then we're in and out without lasting like 90 minutes about what I did over the weekend. Everybody have a great day. We'll talk to you soon.