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PNP 669- Melvin&BTTF Join American Pinball+ Pokemon LE 40K By CHristmas!?

Poor Man's Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·32m 27s·analyzed·Feb 18, 2026
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Melvin joins American Pinball as Creative Director; Pokemon LE predicted to hit 40K by Christmas.

Summary

Orville Elbert reports that American Pinball has hired Melvin Williams as Creative Director to lead game design, including the Back to the Future project previously in development at Dutch Pinball. Elbert expresses cautious optimism about the move while heavily criticizing Dutch Pinball's production pace and American Pinball's historical track record. He also predicts Pokemon Pinball LE could reach $40,000 secondary market value by Christmas, driven by Pokemon collectible market frenzy and extreme scarcity.

Key Claims

  • American Pinball officially hired Melvin Williams as Creative Director on February 17, 2026

    high confidence · Official announcement from American Pinball quoted directly in the episode

  • Melvin will lead the design team and Back to the Future project for American Pinball

    high confidence · American Pinball official announcement: 'Melvin will be leading the design team and creative vision of American Pinball going forward'

  • Dutch Pinball averages one game per 12-13 years based on production history

    medium confidence · Orville Elbert's calculation of Dutch Pinball's historical output; presented as critique of production pace

  • Pokemon LE is already trading for $13,000+ on secondary market

    high confidence · Orville cites Project Pinball sales at $13,000 over MSRP; Mike and Stephanie from Punk Rock Pinball obtained one at Stern Media Day

  • Orville predicts Pokemon LE could reach $40,000 by Christmas 2026, with ~30% probability

    low confidence · Orville's speculative forecast based on Pokemon collectible market trends and comparison to Supreme Pinball historical pricing

  • Pokemon Pikachu Illustrator card recently sold for $16.4 million, highest price ever paid for a Pokemon card

    high confidence · Orville cites this as evidence of Pokemon collectible market overheating and driving secondary market prices

  • Supreme Pinball (100 units made, $5K MSRP) peaked at $75,000-$80,000 USD secondary market

    medium confidence · Orville uses as historical precedent for extreme LE appreciation, though exact peak prices are his recollection

  • American Pinball's best game to date is Houdini

    medium confidence · Orville's opinion: 'They did have one fresh idea once. It was called Houdini. And it still wasn't even a banger of a game. It just happens to be their best so far.'

  • Orville is working a new job with Saturday shifts, preventing tournament play

Notable Quotes

  • “I'm excited to announce that melvin williams will be joining american pinball as creative director melvin will be leading the design team and creative vision of American Pinball going forward.”

    American Pinball (official announcement, read by Orville Elbert) @ ~3:00 — Core news item: official confirmation of Melvin's hiring and role

  • “So Dutch Pinball is averaging one every 12 to 13 years. So I'm just trying to do the math, carry the nine, hold the seven, add the decimal point. That means on average, if Back to the Future was announced this year, they would say they would open the banks to purchase it in two weeks from next Christmas.”

    Orville Elbert @ ~10:30 — Comedic but pointed critique of Dutch Pinball's production pace as justification for Melvin/BTTF move to American Pinball

  • “All of American's pinball machines had one good idea or two. They've just never got the whole freaking package.”

    Orville Elbert @ ~20:00 — Summary of American Pinball's design/execution gap; frames Melvin as potential solution

  • “I would say if i had to guess i don't even think it's quite like a white unicorn event i would guess there's probably about a 30 chance it hits 40k by christmas”

    Orville Elbert @ ~55:00 — Key prediction: 30% probability Pokemon LE reaches $40K by December 2026

  • “Pokemon is now at the very top of all alternate assets on planet Earth. Like it is now the king. And as they say, a rising tide floats all boats.”

    Orville Elbert @ ~70:00 — Explanation for Pokemon LE price explosion based on broader collectible market frenzy

  • “If a dumb Supreme machine, just because it's limited with horrible, boring artwork and no shots and no code and no call outs and no LCD... got up to 80 grand USD... how much more popular is the Pokemon brand than Supreme? Be honest. Is it seven times more popular? No. It's like 7,000 times more popular.”

    Orville Elbert @ ~82:00 — Comparative argument for why Pokemon LE could far exceed Supreme's historical peak pricing

  • “I'm a little concerned that maybe they bit off more than they can chew... I'd rather them do a couple softballs. Like prove to me before you make Back to the Future that you can even make like you know whatever an old is it williams or bally titles”

Entities

Melvin WilliamspersonAmerican PinballcompanyDutch PinballcompanyBack to the FuturegamePokemon Pinball LEproductOrville Elbertperson

Signals

  • ?

    business_signal: American Pinball may be overextending by immediately committing to Back to the Future as first major title under new Creative Director

    medium · Orville: 'I'm a little concerned that maybe they bit off more than they can chew... I'd rather them do a couple softballs'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Strong enthusiasm among collectors for Pokemon IP in pinball; FOMO-driven secondary market demand

    high · Punk Rock Pinball obtained LE immediately after Stern Media Day playtest; Don Garrison acquisition noted as exceptional; Orville's 'buy it meow' recommendation

  • ?

    competitive_signal: American Pinball positioning as alternative manufacturer capable of executing high-profile IP (Back to the Future) faster than Dutch Pinball

    medium · Implicit in announcement; Orville's commentary that American Pinball's manufacturing, while unproven on complexity, is at least faster than Dutch Pinball

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Dutch Pinball's extreme production delays (1 game per 12-13 years) make manufacturing partnership sustainability questionable

    medium · Orville's calculations of Dutch Pinball output relative to years in business; used as rationale for moving BTTF to American Pinball

  • $

    market_signal: Pokemon trading card market record-breaking sales ($16.4M Pikachu Illustrator) creating investor interest migration from crypto into physical collectibles, benefiting secondary market appreciation for Pokemon-themed products including pinball

    medium · Orville's extended discussion of Pokemon card market overheating; comparison to Bitcoin volatility; positioning Pokemon as 'king of alternate assets'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.097

0:00
Welcome back, Pinball Nerds, to episode 669 of your fifth favorite pinball podcast. My name's Orville Elbert, and on today's show, we got some news dropping. That's hot. It's so hot, you could say it's on fire from downtown.
0:17
Well, oh my God. So American Pinball has officially picked up Melvin. Wow. what uh that's this i didn't see this coming i mean i thought maybe it just seems very fast does it seem fast so american pinball this is from three hours ago today is the 17th of february uh happy valentine's day pinball nerds uh hopefully either you and your uh partner in crime had an awesome time playing some pinball or uh if you're single you just said eff it you went out and just got you just got a little drunk had some gummy bears and said who gives a shats and played some pinball either way i hope you played some pinball and you had a great day but let's move forward there is news i didn't think i'd be going to be back for i just started a brand new job i didn't think i was going to be back for a show for a while i still plan on doing free play february where i actually uh put up a couple of my old shows especially like i feel bad for my wife who worked her butt off doing our year in review in december there and the wtf happened in the last month and I think I got like 10 listens or 12 listens, right? So it's just not fair to her and really even me to do two hours of a show or an hour and a half, however long it was. And it was okay, listen. Listen, temper your expectations. I'm not going to say it's a banger, but it's better than any pinball machine that American pinball's ever made.
1:45
Okay, too soon? Alright, this is not Don's Pinball Podcast. I'm not going to be doing sound effects today.
1:51
But here we go. If I was going to do it, I would make this sound when I read this. No, no, not the Debbie Downer sound. I think if I had to be honest, I'm conflicted because part of me is a huge, massive Back to the Future fan, is, well, excited that it's going to be still being made and that they're moving forward with it. And the other half of me is like, why couldn't it have been at Stern or Jersey Jack? Let's be honest. American Pinball is still better than Home Pin making it or Pinball Adventures or definitely way better than Raza or Haggis making it. I think we can all admit that. However, okay, or Skip B. No, we're not going to go back that far. And honestly, be honest with yourself. Be honest with yourself sitting there right now. I know American Pinball is not your first choice to make Back to the Future, but it's better than Dutch Pinball. I'm sorry, DPX. No, I'm sorry, because Dutch Pinball, I mean, on average, they take a – what you do is you take all the number of games they've made, and then you take the number of years they've been producing pinball machines, and that will give you your average of machines per year. Stern is at a cadence. They're obviously at the top. They're the biggest company. They make five or six a year. Spooky's right in there at, like, about one every year, right? Very, very – you know, unless they do the double one, which they said they're not going to do again, but they're usually right there at one per year. Even Barrels of Fun. Hell, we saw two in their first, really their first, now we've seen three, but I'd say even in the first year and a half we saw two, and then last year alone we saw two in a 365-day span, right? So Dutch Pinball is averaging one every 12 to 13 years. So I'm just trying to do the math, carry the nine, hold the seven, add the decimal point. That means on average, if Back to the Future was announced this year, they would say they would open the banks to purchase it in two weeks from next Christmas. And then probably they would start to get the parts in in 2027. And on average, we'd see the first Back to the Future show game of their 88 show games they got to do. Now, if anyone's going to do 88 show games, it should be Back to the Future. Right. Right. Spooky. Come on. That's a sacred number there. um but american pinball is better than dutch making it because we're going to see it before 2040 right do you know what i'm saying so especially if you don't get in on day one and get one of the first couple hundred made you could be waiting till 2050 to get it if it was from dutch okay i'm doing i'm doing shtick here but you get the point so let's finish reading this today i'm excited to announce that melvin williams will be joining american pinball as creative director melvin will be leading the design team and creative vision of American Pinball going forward. He has significant experience leading collaborative teams in designing games, including Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. Melvin brings not only a wealth of experience, but a plethora. Ooh, you guys get chat GDP to write this for you. A plethora. Who says that? You're just not walking through the grocery store and you look over at a big stack of bananas and you go, whoa, look at the plethora of bananas. Right? Unless you're Donkey Kong. And then you're like, well, wait, no, it's not Donkey. Is it King Kong or Donkey Kong? One of the two of them loves bananas. All right.

medium confidence · Personal disclosure: 'I now get weekends off I can play pinball tournaments this year' — context suggests retail/service work

  • Hot Wheels (American Pinball game) lacked a loop-de-loop or car wash feature that would have enhanced the theme

    low confidence · Orville's design criticism and wishful thinking about what the game could have been

    • Orville Elbert @ ~25:00 — Expresses skepticism about American Pinball taking on BTTF as first major title under Melvin

  • “I'm telling you right here, 40K by Christmas. Now, am I guaranteeing you it's going to get to 40K by Christmas? absolutely not”

    Orville Elbert @ ~50:00 — Main prediction stated clearly but with explicit caveats about confidence level

  • “A plethora. Who says that? You're just not walking through the grocery store and you look over at a big stack of bananas and you go, whoa, look at the plethora of bananas.”

    Orville Elbert @ ~5:30 — Comedic riffing on American Pinball's press release language; running joke throughout episode

  • “Don got one oh my god donald Garrison, as if I wasn't already the most jealous man on earth of you... And now that I have a job where I don get weekends off I can play pinball tournaments this year either”

    Orville Elbert @ ~60:00 — Personal context: Orville expressing envy of Don Garrison's Pokemon LE acquisition and his own life constraints

    • Don Garrison
    person
    J.B. Vincent LPcompany
    Mike and Stephanieperson
    Supreme Pinballproduct
    Spooky Pinballcompany
    Barrels of Funcompany
    Stern Pinballcompany
    Houdinigame
    Hot Wheelsgame
    Oktoberfestgame
    Pokemon Pikachu Illustratorproduct
    Kanedaperson
    Christopher Franchiperson
    Project Pinballcompany
  • $

    market_signal: Pokemon Pinball LE trading at $13,000+ secondary market within days/weeks of release

    high · Orville cites Project Pinball sales at $13K over MSRP; Punk Rock Pinball confirmed purchase

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Melvin Williams transitions from Dutch Pinball/DPX to American Pinball as Creative Director

    high · Official American Pinball announcement quoted directly; dated February 17, 2026

  • $

    market_signal: Pokemon LE secondary market showing extreme appreciation velocity; secondary market prices decoupling from MSRP within days of release

    high · Project Pinball sold units at $13K over MSRP; Orville predicts $25K-$40K by Christmas based on Pokemon frenzy

  • ?

    product_strategy: Back to the Future pinball project remains in development; no launch date confirmed despite Melvin's hiring

    high · Orville notes: 'I'm excited to be here in the year 2026 and watch what the heck happens'

  • ?

    product_concern: American Pinball's historical game design lacks cohesive execution despite occasional good individual ideas

    medium · Orville: 'All of American's pinball machines had one good idea or two. They've just never got the whole freaking package.'

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Pokemon Pinball LE could achieve secondary market value of $40,000+ by December 2026

    low · Orville's speculative forecast with stated ~30% probability; based on Pokemon market trends and Supreme Pinball historical precedent

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Pokemon collectible market experiencing extreme overheating, with record-breaking card sales driving secondary market expectations for pinball variants

    high · Pokemon Pikachu Illustrator sold for $16.4M; Orville predicts Pokemon LE could reach $25K-$40K by Christmas based on collector frenzy

    • 5:10
    But a plethora of fresh ideas and vision. Good. You guys need a lot of fresh ideas. In fact, you're looking for your first fresh idea. And that's not, I'm not being fair. They did have one fresh idea once. It was called Houdini. And it still wasn't even a banger of a game. It just happens to be their best so far. So all you have to do is make Back to the Future better than Houdini, and it will automatically be American Pinball's best pinball machine of all time. We're setting the bar real, real, real low here. Don't do weird stuff with the artwork like you did on Oktoberfest, okay? Even though I like some of the things on Oktoberfest with like as you get more and more drunk in the one mode, your flippers actually slow down, right? So there were some cool things happening in there. All of American's pinball machines had one good idea or two. They've just never got the whole freaking package.
    6:08
    And I don't know, brother, but Melvin, if you can get in there and do just like Williams pinball back in the day, then I'd say great. But I'll tell you what, a plethora, it doesn't matter how many plethoras you have, you could have a million plethoras of fresh ideas and vision. If you can't implement it, it doesn't matter. And in the past, DPX, or sorry, Dutch Pinball, could not implement their manufacturing. American pinball couldn't come up with any good ideas and had no vision so if Melvin can bring the ideas and the vision and be the the big picture guy so to speak and then you have over there Jay I like how he puts Jay in front of his name I'm Jay Bryant Vincent he sounds like he's a billionaire right like he's got to have his little monocle I want to say okay can I just call you Brian. Do I have to say J. Brian Vincent? Okay, I keep seeing like the guy, the Monopoly guy with the little monocle. Wait, did he not have one of those? All right, let's finish reading this. He will no doubt be instrumental in helping American Pinball create some amazing games for you all to play. With that said, we'd like to welcome Melvin to the American Pinball family. Play the Adventure. Is this like their new slogan, like their 15th new slogan in a week? You guys getting AI to do your logos, and then you're also getting AI to do your slogans? Come on. Your slogan should be, we've got a plethora of fresh ideas in vision. That should be it. Let's be honest. It just rolls off the tongue. A plethora. I didn't even know how to spell that. I saw that word and was like, I just guessed. All right. Let's get off here. Let's see if there's got to be one or two funny comments Melissa Marquette Congratulations Melvin and American Pinball Looking forward to great things to come Well Well I think she a dealer and I think that she exclusively is getting or was supposed to get the rights for you know back to the future So probably a good thing.
    8:20
    This is Hans Millenberger said, this is great news. Good hire. I wish nothing but success for Melvin and AP. Now y'all got to move to Chicagoland, will y'all?
    8:31
    Please no Raza. Okay, Christopher Doyle, there you go. I agree. Let's just, can we just, can we just agree, take Raza, bring it behind the barn, and shoot it with a frickin' 12 gauge, okay? Listen, I don't quote my fellow countryman Kevin O'Leary very often. I'm a little leery of it, all right? But is one saying that we could all use a little bit more of is take it behind the barn and shoot it because every J-pop idea ever is exhausted. It's done. It's cursed. It's forsaken. It's from Munda. It smells stinkier than from Munda. Cheese from from Munda. It's bad. It's bad. It's worse than Stilton. It's worse than blue cheese sitting in a hot car on a Texas summer day for 12 hours, okay? It is stanky. It's worse than if you took sauerkraut and you mixed it with a sour beer and added brettanomyces and then you took a little, okay, I've gone too far here. Here's the thing. I want American pinball to succeed. I want Melvin to succeed. But most importantly, I want Back to the Future to be celebrated and recognized. it wasn't just a movie. It wasn't just one of the most, if not maybe perhaps the most, I'd say it's got to be in the top five most successful movie trilogies of all time from a critical standpoint, from an audience standpoint, from a tomato meter, from an internet movie database, from the amount of money it brought in. Just in every way, shape, and form. That movie had it all. It had comedy.
    10:10
    It had romance. It had tons of action. And it really, really, really made you think. Over and above that, it wasn't like, you know, it wasn't a movie for the jocks. The jocks, so to speak, were always like the big bad bullies, right? And this was Biff Tannen. There you go. The name came to me eventually.
    10:32
    This movie was about redemption for the nerdy guy, for the small guy, for the guy who skateboarded like me, the skateboarder. the guy who loved to play guitar and was like, I don't know, into Nirvana. And like, well, back then it would have been Johnny B. Good. But, you know, and the power of love. Oh, yeah. Huey Lewis and the News. I owned that record. I might still own it somewhere. Michael J. Fox's.
    10:56
    Wow. No, that's the secret of my success. That's it. I also own that record. But anyways, massive Michael J. Fox fan. I am going to be selling the farm most likely, hopefully, knock on wood, next spring, about 12 months today. We're hoping to actually be putting the house on the market, maybe 11 and a half, 12 months from now, putting it on the market. And when we sell the farm, we're going to be moving into a much smaller, much more humble, like a ranch. We neither Danielle nor I, after the kids have moved out, we're empty nesters. We don't want, all I need room for is an arcade slash workout room. I want to have enough room to be able to put either an elliptical in there and or a treadmill or a walking pad, maybe be able to put it in and out from underneath like one of the pinball machines in the corner and maybe it has a nice closet to get rid of it and outside of that I just want a pinball room and then you know I just want a nice two or three very small bedroom house that's going to cost significantly less than where we live now and that will be probably right around the time hopefully that Back to the Future is coming out or if it had come out that you know it's more pricey and so me more than maybe anyone else out there is excited for Back to the Future because I love Christopher Lloyd. I love Michael J. Fox. I almost got made fun of because I watched Back to the Future 2 well over a hundred times in college. And I literally had a booklet where I wrote down and explained every flaw in the time theory of, well, if they did this, then this couldn't have happen and see but now they're explaining it's crazy it's crazy i like to micro analyze that movie and i i don't i only watch it maybe once or twice a year now at christmas time or something like that or if i happen to be on an airplane or just somewhere where i'm stuck and the movie's on because it's get gets replayed a lot i will 100 watch it and i will it'll for always be one of my favorite movies but i'm not like talking about it or thinking about it as much as i am say something like, Pokemon, gotta catch them all. All right. So I do want to pivot over to Pokemon. That wasn't the smoothest pivot, but I'm excited to see what American Pinball does. I'm a little worried. I'm a little concerned that maybe they bit off more than they can chew. I would have rather them, I'm sorry, Franchi, for all the baseball analogies, but I'd rather them do a couple softballs. Like prove to me before you make Back to the Future that you can even make like you know whatever an old is it williams or bally titles are going to be doing like i want to see them do a couple small runs make sure they got the manufacturing down don't be doing any quad manufacturing okay you're not deep root that's something for them i'm pretty sure they licensed that and they copyright and trademarked it octo like octo manufacturing don't be doing any of that just whatever american pinball you can say what you will they lacked vision they lacked ideas they lacked cohesiveness they weren't good at picking titles they couldn't put a loop-de-loop inside Hot Wheels. What are you doing? Hot Wheels needed that. Am I right? The Hot Wheels needed the car wash. Imagine if they had that little car wash that like every freaking kid had in the late 80s and early 90s. I eventually end up getting the color-changing car wash. That was even more fire. We're like, it would, you know, while going up in the elevator, you're spinning this thing and it's changing colors because it's getting water on it before it goes back down through the parking garage again. But all of us wanted something more from Hot Wheels and we didn't get it. But now you finally have Melvin for the first time. You've got a man with a plethora that i think that means a lot guys i don't know i've never heard that word actually spoken before but i think it means a lot so you've got someone with a plethora of ideas you have a plethora of visions that's a lot of visions that's like that's a lot and then you're going to be in this factory where for years and years and years the only thing that they did right was manufacture a good machine like i said a friend of mine seven there at seven's pinball Just outside of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island with all my redhead buds. Okay. Over there at Road to Avonleaville. All right. Eating some beautiful potatoes. You can go to Five Guys Burgers and Fries all the way across North America. And everyone I've been at, whether I was at Pinberg, okay, in 2018 or 2019, the final Pinberg, when we got there, the fries were from Prince Edward Island. It's like, you think Idaho is the potato capital? Nah, nah, nah, nah. per capita definitely that red iron clad sand that grows all those beautiful potatoes in prince edward island and seven over there made a post at one point i forget it was 15 000 plays or 20 000 plays but he bragged about hot wheels being the best modern pinball machine he had ever bought because he had only had to replace the coils once and maybe the rubbers and probably a couple lights and he had had this thing in a place where there's tons of kids running around hitting the flippers left right and center not dead bouncing you know uh just you know it's getting the crap beat out of it and all you can play family center okay those get by far the most plays because you're not paying for coin drop and this thing was just like a freaking tank i'm sorry i'm sorry gtf all right so i'm very excited to see what they do i'm tentative so i'm putting a little salt in the wounds and saying like i don't 100 trust them just because i know that jay brian has done manufacturing before, but has not manufactured anything close to as complicated We even know that a pinball machine has more parts than the average car Or is it that the average car is the only consumer product that has more parts than a pinball machine That might be it, but some type of argument like that. The point is, whatever he was manufacturing in the past, most likely did not have even 10% of the number of parts and 10% of the number of things that could malfunction or go wrong. And the old product that he made probably didn't have a steel freaking ball smashing around, hitting all these delicate rubbers and plastics and pieces of wood and everything else. So this is a brand new beast. But the good news is, hopefully, they have that manufacturing. They have the proper sources for the good materials. And they're not going to cheap out on any of that. And I don't know. I don't know how much retention is learned. Or I don't know what number of staff that were in the factory that got let go or not. I don't know about any of that, but what I do know is I'm excited to be here in the year 2026 and watch what the heck happens. Because either way, it's going to be entertaining. And I mean, I will still try to play before I pay. I don't need the LE version if they even do that. I'm fine with just getting the lowest version, most likely. I haven't seen it yet, but most likely.
    17:25
    Are you excited? I bet you're excited. What wild news. I really didn't think I'd be doing a show for another week or two, and then this news came out. And I'm okay with this news coming out because there was one other thing I wanted to talk about, albeit briefly.
    17:41
    Sorry. Got a little, had a little tickle, a little tickle there just at the back of my throat, my little nerdy throat. All right. Feeling better. Hey, guys. I'm feeling less nerdy now. No, I'm feeling better. But Kaneda is saying, and he did ask in his chat, like, do you think that Pokemon could even get to 18,000? And I said, no. I was the first person to say, no, I actually think it will get to 20,000. But why do I think it will get to 20,000? And do I actually truly believe? I'm going to be the first one to say it right here, 40K by Christmas. Now, am I guaranteeing you it's going to get to 40K by Christmas? absolutely not do i actually like do i think it's a 50 50 chance nah probably not but i would say if i had to guess i don't even think it's quite like a white unicorn event i would guess there's probably about a 30 chance it hits 40k by christmas right at that peak when there's going to be one or two super rich pokemon dudes who come out of the woodwork and they go and believe me if they're willing to pay i don't know if you guys know this but logan paul's pikachu illustrator um not to nerd out too much on pokemon but there's only 40 of these cards or wherever printed in the world and logan paul owns the or he did own the only one that is rated a gem mint psa 10 to be fair there is other cards that i know that have printed hundreds of and not a single one of them ever got a 10 so the fact that even one card this rare and this early on has a 10 and it's the rarest card means that it's worth more than a first edition shadowless base Charizard, which typically, if you could get that in a 10, which actually isn't that hard if you're pulling it out of the pack, it's just really hard to get one that like kids have had in their pocket for 30 years that gets a 10. If you're pulling it out of the pack, you might have, say, even like I said, like a 1 in 50 or 1 in 100, maybe even slightly better depending on the day that it was made and how good the centering was that day and how clean the cutting tools were. But I've gone off topic here. The point is, this illustrator just sold for $16.4 million.
    19:53
    I believe the second most expensive card to ever sell on planet Earth was like, I think a $12 million T-204 Honus Wagner. Also known as Shoeless Joe Jackson.
    20:06
    Shoeless Joe? No, he's a different guy. But both of those cards are worth a heck of a lot. But the T204 was from Honus Wagner, and he did not want his cards to be affiliated with cigarette smoking because kids were the primary people trying to get the baseball cards. So this is the theory behind it. But to this day, everybody always said Pokemon collector, sports card collector, Funko Pop nerd, comic book dude, and Magic the Gathering, Yu-Gi-Oh. It doesn't matter what type of collector you are, you know, or even like vintage Star Wars toys. A lot of dudes do that. There's quite a few guys that I know that just collect Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles between the comic books, between the toys, the video games. And just just think of how much merch they've made over the years of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
    20:55
    You no matter what it is, this is now the most expensive card that's ever sold. It's more expensive than any sports cards ever sold. In fact, the most expensive comic book that ever sold was the first appearance of Superman, and that just sold last year for $15 million. So at this point, a little tiny Pikachu on a piece of paper from just 30 years ago is worth more than the most expensive comic of all time, which is the first appearance of Superman from like not 100 years ago, but like a long time ago, like, I don't know, 50, whatever, whenever it came out. so and that's in a 9-0 that's the highest recorded copy of course and that's 15 million so it's we're living in a new day and age where even just going back two days ago three days ago two days ago i forget i stayed up and watched it but it crested over the midnight here the most expensive collectible on earth was the first appearance of and i'm not going to say collectible on earth because i'm sure there's some i know there's movie props that have gone for way more than that like if you had the actual Darth Vader outfit or something like that. But I'm talking of like comic books, sports cards, Pokemon cards, like all cards on planet Earth. Pokemon is now at the very top of all alternate assets on planet Earth. Like it is now the king. And as they say, a rising tide floats all boats. We're going to see a lot of these mid-tier and other high-tier Pokemon cards start to go through the roof as we see more investment companies coming in. And honestly, a lot of people who used to be in the Bitcoin game and be in the cryptocurrencies are getting out of those. They're seeing those crash day after day after day. It's not just Ethereum and Bitcoin. There's no utility to them. You have no nostalgia for a number on a Bitcoin. You just don't. I've bought and sold Bitcoin multiple times. And it's fine because you make some money. Well, I thankfully have made money every time I did it so far. There was that one time that I partied way too hard at the London Eat and Drink Festival. and I may or may not have puked all over my laptop and that laptop had about one seventh of a Bitcoin on it. So had I actually held out, and I wouldn't have, I would have sold it way before the top, but had I actually held to the top here in Canada when it was at 140, that was an expensive puke. That was a $20,000 puke, man. That was bad. No, I probably would have sold it long. I definitely would have sold it long before that, but I could have ended up mining more with that computer and it doesn't matter here or there. I kept the hard drive forever and finally I just got rid of it and went, nah it's 20k what is that what is that that's just like a stern that's like a stern le that's what a pokemon le is right now and to everyone who thinks that the price is topped out i saw project pinball sold them for 13 000 over you're wrong if you don't have an le right now and you can possibly sell part of your collection to get one i would do it and i wouldn't mind paying a couple grand over asking you're not going to get one at 15 i heard don got one oh my god donald Garrison, as if I wasn't already the most jealous man on earth of you. I don't get jealous about people that are just wealthy, which, of course, arguably, you're a lot more wealthier than me. I mostly am jelly about the fact that you get to go to so many theme parks, and I love theme parks.
    24:10
    I'm also jealous that you get to go traveling all over the world all the time. That obviously something I can afford And now that I have a job where I don get weekends off I can play pinball tournaments this year either So I guess I well not even just this year perhaps the rest of my life Hopefully I like to work here for a very long time and retire here So I working every Saturday now with 0% chance of getting the Saturday off. I can get off almost any other day of the week if I needed to. So hopefully maybe in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, they'll start having the odd tournament on a Friday or Sunday, and then I could go, but we'll see that's neither here nor there what's important is that i'm telling you rarely get out there and play yourself a pro the pros will be out very shortly actually they're usually out within like three to five days of the launch so i'm surprised we haven't seen it yet maybe they're still dealing with licensing issues but i'm i'm telling you this is the rare in almost a decade of me covering the hobby this is a freaking buy it meow like play it play it before you pay and i did hear that uh Mike and Stephanie from Punk Rock Pinball, they did listen to me, and they played it before they paid. So they went to the Stern Media Day. Right after playing Pokemon, they walked outside, called their distro, and got a Pokemon LE. So thank you for playing before you paid. You guys are awesome. And they still managed to get one. So I know if you're listening to this right now. Oh, to finish what I was saying with Don, from what I understand, he got a listener that gave him his spot for free for the LE. that's incredible because that man basically handed him on the low end 10 grand on the very low end maybe for the first couple weeks they'll only trade at five over i just if i had to make i used to call this the jewish uh i used to call it the jewish dutchman dutchman's uh you know version and what i used to do and i let's just go with dutch though to be safe here okay Let's just go with the Dutchman because I am half Dutch, thankfully.
    26:06
    And I don't like the other stereotypes that are attached to that. However, at the time, there was a reason for that that I'm not going to get into. But my point is, is that I suspect that on the very, very low end of the graph, we're going to see Pokemon hit 5K over by summer and 10K over by Christmas, which would be 25K by Christmas. but I also think on the high end we could see it go 10 to even yes 13,000 over like they did in the project pinball ones where they all went for 13 over I think it could within weeks of coming out by mid-spring could be 10,000 over by summer could be 15,000 over and yes I'm gonna say it right here I think there's a tiny chance by fall 20,000 over and like again maybe just 20 to 30 percent chance there's a possibility because I've seen stuff in Pokemon happen that I've never seen in any other collectible where cards just went nuts. I had a $3 card turn into a $300 card, right? I've had a $5 card turn into a $50 card in like six weeks. And some of those cards I bought multiples of because I thought that might happen. So you never know. The Pokemon market is the craziest group of dudes out there. Like think about it. Someone just paid $16.4 million. I think it's Scaramucci or whatever his name is. I think it's his son or something. So obviously like that guy I built a big financial empire. But I'm just saying right now, I do not do pinball for investment. I don't do it to flip. I don't do it to make money. But I'm saying that if you love Pokemon, don't do it to sell it to make money. If you love Pokemon and you think that you're going to want an LE, don't wait till next year because I think they're going to be 30 to 40 by next year. Don't wait three or four years from now because I think then I think this could turn into the Supreme. Now, if you're listening right now and you don't know what happened to Supreme, it started out as a $5,000 pin from Stern. I believe it was $4,995. They only made $100.
    28:03
    It eventually got up to where I think the highest sale ever was $75,000 or $80,000 on eBay, like at the peak when you just couldn't get them. I think they're back down to like $40,000 or $50,000 now. I'm sure the odd sale goes down to even $30,000 if you can even find one. It just depends how many are on the market, when they come up, and that sort of thing. But the point is, if Supreme, Supreme, the most bare, empty, barren desert of a pinball machine, can get up to 80 grand USD, and they made 100 of them, how much more popular is the Pokemon brand than Supreme? Be honest. Is it seven times more popular? No. It's like 7,000 times more popular. Look, like literally just ask chat or Meta AI how much money revenue per year Pokemon brings in in Supreme. I guarantee you it's hundreds if not thousands of times higher. So if a dumb Supreme machine, just because it's limited with horrible, boring artwork and no shots and no code and no call outs and no LCD.
    29:05
    And no one who even really cares about Supreme anymore. That brand was like like the year 2002 call. They want, you know, your supposedly cool brand back or whatever. Right.
    29:17
    I'm telling you right now. And again, do I think it will just stay at like whatever, 13 or 14 or 15? Maybe. I don't think so, though. I would say it's more likely that it gets to 30K by Christmas or even 40K than it is that it stays at like MSRP. I'll tell you one thing it won't do, and I will – I'll come up with a really cool bet for it. I can't think of one right now. I don't know. I'll do a snow angel in my swimming trunks, okay, in three feet of snow that we have here at minus 20.
    29:49
    Next year, of course, because this will take a year. But if that pinball machine ever goes down in value, it's going to be Stern's first pinball machine to easily hold value in a very long time. And I think we can all agree on that. All right, pinball nerds, I love you. I'm in love with you. I hope you have an awesome day. Thank you to everybody. I am going to still drop some free plays this month, but it just depends if there's more news. And again, you know me, even when I'm busy, even when I have lots of other going on in life, I always prioritize pinball. Pinball has really given me so much in life. It's given me most of my friends.
    30:24
    It's given me most of my hobbies. This podcast is so important. It's so embedded in my life. I'm constantly always, when I'm listening to another podcast or when I'm watching a Twitch pinball show or when I'm even at a tournament and I'm playing, I'm always thinking about how this relates to my next podcast and how I can entertain, inform, and in some tiny way just communicate to you guys what's going on in my day-to-day life. and how I interact with pinball. And that was the whole point of this in the first place. So, but now I'm just meandering. Have yourself an awesome day. And I'm just saying, don't go buy a, don't go get a Pokemon at, you know, don't talk someone into it or something at 15K or like, or to give it to you at MSRP and then go flip it. No, don't do that. But if you love Pokemon and you already ordered a pro or a premium, I'm just telling you, I don't think LEs will ever be, and I mean ever, not in 2040, not in 2050, limited edition Pokemon Stern pinball machines will never be worth less than they are today. If you think you want an LE, I would go buy it now. Again, don't go give blood, donate blood to get money to do this. You know, don't sell off all your worldly possessions. Don't go into debt for it. But if you can afford to sell off some of your pinball collection, like many of you listening, then freaking go out there and treat yourself because it ain't getting any cheaper anytime soon. In fact, I will replay this moment in time in three or four months from now, and I'll just be saying, I told you so. But I'd rather be saying, I told you so, and you're writing me back at pinballnerds at Gmail and saying, Albert, thanks for saving me $5, $10, $15,000 because he's a massive, huge Pokemon fan. I would always kick myself in the butt for not going out and getting it, even if I had to play slightly over MSRP right now, because in the future it will never be as cheap as it is. Rate. Meow. Until next time, Pebble Nerds, remember to eat, sleep, and breathe.
    32:25
    Pokemon!