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Special Edition: Late Night In Ireland w Kaneda

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 0s·analyzed·Jun 14, 2022
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.025

TL;DR

Kaneda's pre-Toy Story CE analysis: pricing concerns, market scalping, flipper fixes, economic headwinds.

Summary

Kaneda records a late-night special from Ireland ahead of Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story collector's edition announcement and order bank opening at noon EST. He discusses pricing concerns ($12k for LE vs $15-16k for CE), market dynamics including scalping and secondary market inflation, flipper quality fixes allegedly made by Jack, and broader economic uncertainty affecting luxury purchase decisions. He emphasizes community kindness during what he predicts will be a contentious release day with high demand, limited availability, and FOMO-driven behavior.

Key Claims

  • Jersey Jack is only requiring a deposit on direct sales, inviting more scalpers/flippers to participate

    high confidence · Kaneda, discussing deposit-only model making it easier for scalpers to buy multiple spots

  • Guns N' Roses LE recently sold for $8,600, well below MSRP, showing value depreciation

    medium confidence · Kaneda citing a conversation with someone who purchased Guns N' Roses LE at that price

  • Jack Danger claims flipper issues on JJP games have been fixed

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Jack is telling people that they fixed the flipper issues on the games. So that's interesting.'

  • Toy Story game will sell out instantly and distributors are already sold out

    medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on demand patterns and pre-order dynamics

  • LE pricing for Toy Story is now $12,000, matching former CE pricing

    high confidence · Kaneda directly states: '12 grand for an LE is the new price'

Notable Quotes

  • “Nobody really needs it, but we want it, right? These are emotional purchases. These are luxuries. These are the luxury of luxuries.”

    Kaneda @ ~3:30 — Core philosophy about pinball as aspirational luxury good, contextualizing the psychological tension around high pricing

  • “For $12,000, you should be getting something where you feel like you got the creme de la creme, you got something special, you got something that's a little bit rare.”

    Kaneda @ ~12:00 — Direct critique of JJP pricing strategy relative to production volume and collector expectations

  • “You can't have it both ways. You can't call something a collectible and seek rare versions of things and then get mad when people are doing the same thing you're doing, but they just want to make the money on it.”

    Kaneda @ ~18:30 — Philosophical take on secondary market scalping and collector market dynamics

  • “I think tomorrow is going to be a moment where more people are disappointed than are going to walk away happy.”

    Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Prediction of widespread FOMO and dissatisfaction due to limited CE availability vs. demand

  • “It's almost like companies don't even want to do that ever again. Nowadays, they say, hey, we're going to make a game. Give me your money and you're going to wait like six to eight months to get your game.”

    Kaneda @ ~9:00 — Critique of modern pre-order model vs. legacy show-and-play approach to game launches

  • “I think this hobby is going to get real soft on the secondhand market real soon. I think a lot of these boutique companies that are selling games around $10,000, I think they're going to feel this real soon.”

    Kaneda @ ~28:00 — Macro prediction about economic headwinds affecting secondary market liquidity and boutique manufacturer viability

Entities

KanedapersonJack DangerpersonPat LawlerpersonZach SharpepersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyToy Story pinballgameToy Story 4gameGuns N' Roses pinball

Signals

  • ?

    product_strategy: LE pricing for Toy Story now $12,000, matching historical CE pricing; CE pricing presumably higher at $15-16k. Signals aggressive price escalation at LE tier.

    high · Kaneda: '12 grand for an LE is the new price' and references $15-16k range for CE

  • $

    market_signal: Guns N' Roses LE recently sold for $8,600, significantly below MSRP, indicating rapid value loss for recent JJP games

    medium · Kaneda recounts: 'I just spoke to someone tonight. He's like, Chris, I just got a Guns N' Roses LE for 8,600 bucks'

  • ?

    collector_signal: JJP's deposit-only model ($2k deposit vs. full price) incentivizes scalpers to acquire multiple spots; 3 spots for ~$6k vs. $45k for full games

    high · Kaneda: 'If all I have to spend is $2,000 to get a spot. That's going to be far more enticing... You can get three spots for like $6,000'

  • ?

    product_concern: Jack Danger claims flipper issues (mushy feel, lag) have been fixed; unclear if software or hardware fix; potential thermal issue from game heating

    medium · Kaneda: 'Jack is telling people that they fixed the flipper issues on the games... Is it a software issue? Is it a hardware issue? Are they going to be installing fans?'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Widespread fatigue with pre-order model, lack of marketing information before order bank opens, and gap between video reveal timing and purchase deadline

    high · Kaneda: 'I think there's just an overall sort of fatigue around this approach... why can't we just see these things... before we have to make up our mind'

Topics

Toy Story CE pricing and market strategyprimarySecondary market scalping and FOMO dynamicsprimaryJJP flipper quality and hardware issuessecondaryEconomic headwinds affecting collector spendingprimaryPre-order model vs. show-and-play legacy approachsecondaryCommunity dynamics and collector etiquettesecondaryBoutique manufacturer viability in downturnsecondaryValue depreciation of recent JJP gamessecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.35)— Kaneda is excited about the game theme (Pat Lawler design, Toy Story IP, personal collecting goals) but deeply concerned about pricing ($12k LE/$15-16k CE), market manipulation (scalping), economic timing, and potential quality issues (flippers, playfield durability). Macro anxiety about recession tempers enthusiasm. Emphasizes community kindness amid expected FOMO-driven disappointment.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.057

This podcast is not going to sound right because I'm using some free software on the internet because it is almost one o'clock in the morning here in Ireland and I just wanted to get you some thoughts about Toy Story, about the collector's edition, and my computer that I use for the podcast is in the room with the baby. Now, Killian has had a really rough night. I'm jet lagged and I'm trying to sort of process still doing my work in New York, also trying to uncover all the different things about this Toy Story announcement and this reveal. And I'm going to give you this content right now. This is old school Canada. There's no editing. This program doesn't let me go back and take out mistakes. So if I do a mistake, I'm going to keep on going. But I'm going to try to give you at least a decent thing to listen to without any production quality whatsoever. Are you ready? Okay. So we know that it's Toy Story. We don't know if it's Toy Story 4. We don't know if it's Toy Story 1 through 3 or all of them or some brand new Toy Story adventure. We see the Pixar ball is the shooter rod, right? It's the shooter handle, not the rod, the handle on the game. It looks like the armor is right out of Willy Wonka, right? It looks like the red armor from Wizard of Oz, Ruby Red Editions. So, but this is probably going to be what the collector's edition is with this red armor is jersey jack recycling old armor we don't know i don't think anyone really cares i think what was funny about that photo was you've got this beautiful like pixar ball you've got this beautiful candy coated armor and then you've got this ugly basic silver leg bolt like they couldn't have done something not to have the leg bolt stand out so much on this game. But nobody cares about leg bolts. Here's the thing. Here's the real thing about this game right now. I think a lot of us out there are watching the stock market collapse. Crypto is burning right before our eyes. Like everyone who said crypto is fake is laughing all the way, you know, because they're looking at their more secure investments. But it's a really hard time for a lot of people in America. It's who probably were a lot better off in September than they are right now. And as I think about this, you know, this podcast has always tried to cover this hobby, both from a pinball standpoint, but also from a social and a cultural and a psychological standpoint on what does it mean that tomorrow at noon Eastern Standard Time, you are going to be given permission to send a pinball company probably $15,000 to $16,000 plus tax if you're in a state that requires tax to buy a pinball machine, which nobody really needs, right? Nobody really needs it, but we want it, right? These are emotional purchases. These are luxuries. These are the luxury of luxuries. Just because on the list of things you need, you need a car. You even probably need a watch to tell time, but you don't need a pinball machine. And so when the order bank opens up, what's going to happen tomorrow? And I just want to say this. I think everyone out there wishes that we had something more to chew on as we head into tomorrow. Because here's the thing. I don't know if we're going to actually get a video before noon Eastern Standard Time. And then you've got to make up your mind on whether or not you really need this game. Whether or not you want to send them all this money. And you're not going to get, I don't know what you're going to get. I think you're going to get a straight down the middle video like Zach did with Willy Wonka. but then you're going to have to pull the trigger. But what we don't know is this. You don't know what time that video is coming out. Is that video going to launch at noon when order banks open? If that's the case, you're going to have to buy it before you finish the video. Are they going to launch the video an hour before so you're going to be able to at least see what the game is about and then make up your mind? Nobody knows. There hasn't really been much communication whatsoever on this game. If you think about it, how much marketing has Jersey Jack Pinball done? We saw a few posts about how spring is here, a new game is coming. We saw Jen in the truck. And then we got Pat Lawler with the play field next to him turned upside down. And that's it. And now you have to decide whether or not you want it before you've seen it. And I think there's just an overall sort of fatigue around this approach that why can't we just see these things, see if we want them or not, before we have to make up our mind. But I also think Jersey Jack is not going to sort of you know do a spooky pinball and not show you anything and ask for your money and then reveal the game I don think they going to do that They never done that. Jersey Jack has always shown us what's in the game before they take our money. Now, I think all of us miss the good old years in which they used to bring the game to a show. Remember these days? They would show up with the game at a show, like at TPF. They would bring dialed in. They would bring Pirates of the Caribbean. And then all of these people at the show could jump on it and play the machine before the order banks opened up. Those were the good days. Those days are gone. Those days are gone. It's almost like companies don't even want to do that ever again. Nowadays, they say, hey, we're going to make a game. Give me your money and you're going to wait like six to eight months to get your game. So what do I think is going to happen tomorrow. So I think we're going to get a video probably, I would think like an hour or so before order banks open up. I think you're going to see probably around 11 a.m., maybe earlier, like 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. I expect them to put something up before the order banks open. I would be really disappointed if nothing goes up before noon. I really would because I do think you need to give people an adequate window to make up their mind, especially when they're spending this much money on a pinball machine. The other part that I've just been thinking about, and I can't shake this, and again, sorry that there's no editing. Sorry that I can't do anything with the volumes. This is old school Canada. The other thing I was thinking about was this. I really think prices are too high. There is no way you can sort of feel good about spending $12,000 on a pinball machine in 2022 and you're getting the second best version of the game. You know, 12 grand for an LE is the new price. How does anybody feel good about that? It's absolutely bonkers. I mean, $12,000 was roughly what the CE prices were on every prior Jersey jack game. Now the problem is if you drop 12,000 on the LE for Toy Story, your game's not going to hold value. They're going to make thousands of them. And so you're going to spend 12,000 and just watch your game go from 12 to 11 to 10. Right now, I just spoke to someone tonight. He's like, Chris, I just got a Guns N' Roses LE for 8,600 bucks. 8,600 bucks for an LE of Guns N' Roses. and they're going to make even more toy stories. And I think this is at the point now where you might be a millionaire, you might have so much money, you might have money to burn, but what's happening in pinball? For $12,000, you should be getting something where you feel like you got the creme de la creme, you got something special, you got something that's a little bit rare. But to spend this much money and to get something that they're going to make many, many, many of, I just think it's making people second guess it. because the other part is this there's no rush to buy an le of this game there's no rush whatsoever if you want to wait and hold you will be able to play the game you'll be able to see if there's any play field issues you'll be able to see if the code is where you want it to be you'll be able to know if you really want the game so that means on day one the people who really want this machine are either, see, sorry, I made a mistake. They're either Toy Story fanatics or they are Pat Lawler fanatics or they are scalpers and they are flippers. And the thing that's going to happen tomorrow because Jersey Jack Pinball is only requiring a deposit on their direct sales site, they're actually inviting so many more scalpers to go because if all I have to spend is $2,000 to get a spot. That's going to be far more enticing and easy for people to swallow than if they have to spend the entire price of the game plus tax. You know, you can get three spots for like $6,000. If you had to buy three games, you're talking $45,000. So we will see what happens. My prediction also is this. I think that they might have server issues. Now, I hope they don't. But I think a lot of people are going to be trying to get through that door at noon Eastern Standard Time. And I think you're going to start to see JJP's store site start to get really slow and not load quickly, starting around like 1145 a.m. Eastern Standard Time as everyone just trying to get through the door So what kind of day will it be tomorrow I think this game is going to sell out pretty instantly I think distributors are already sold out You are not going to find one with a distributor. The other thing we're going to see is this, and I've predicted this and it's come true and it only makes sense. You are going to see some dealers who get smaller allotments of this game list them for sale for $25,000 to $30,000, maybe $20,000 to $30,000, somewhere in that spectrum. But you're going to see a lot of people trying to sell these games for a lot more money than even JJP thinks they're worth. And I think that's going to get people angry, and it's going to get people mad. And I encourage all of you, just don't buy it. If someone wants to sell you this game for $25,000 and you don't want it, you don't have to buy it, but you'll never be able to stop this behavior. This behavior, see, I made another mistake. I'm human. This behavior, it's also 1 a.m., so give me a break, right? This behavior, this behavior happens in every single collectible market. In fact, if this didn't happen, if we didn't see people flipping things and selling them secondhand for far more than we bought them for, there wouldn't be a collectible market. So you can't have it both ways. You can't call something a collectible and seek rare versions of things and then get mad when people are doing the same thing you're doing, but they just want to make the money on it. They don't really care about the gameplay and the experience. It's the same thing in cars and watches and bottles of wine. You can go down a list of things. You know, people buy it for this price and the demand is far greater than the supply. So this will happen. now the other part I want to encourage each and every one of you to do is just be nice tomorrow there are going to be winners and losers there are going to be people that secure their CE and wave it in everyone's face there's going to be people who love Toy Story who get shut out of it there's going to be people who feel like they missed out right FOMO is going to be strong but I encourage everybody like if we're if we're a community that is is here because we enjoy each other's company. Don't get too angry. Don't get too riled up. Don't brag if you got one. I think tomorrow is a moment in which, and I know I put up funny photos on my Facebook page, but I think tomorrow is going to be a moment where more people are disappointed than are going to walk away happy. And I know sometimes people say stuff like, well, why don't they just make unlimited amounts of CEs or take all the orders on CEs. No, that's also stupid because look, these are companies. They're making items that nobody really needs, but they also understand that you need the collector market to drive pinball. It's almost really, it feels almost irresponsible talking about this as I'm looking at the stock market. It feels really what's going on in the world. I think everyone knows we are headed for some really, really dark times. We are. Financially, we are headed into a black hole over the next months and who knows how long it's going to last. But it doesn't look good. It doesn't look good. And a lot of people made a lot of money really fast. And when COVID hit, everyone thought we'd be in this recession, but the opposite happened. Like this bubble appeared and everyone was making money. Remember when Dogecoin was 89 cents? Dogecoin is now 5 cents, OK, and I get it. We all made a lot of money or some people did. I didn't. I didn't make a lot of money through COVID. I just kept doing my job like I am. I'm not paycheck to paycheck, but I require a salary to maintain my lifestyle. I mean, that's where I'm at. I don't have like all these real estate holdings. I don't have like all these dividends coming in. And so I save up money and I buy a pinball machine. And I think I'm like many of you out there. You know, I don't need it, but I can save up and get one. But if I'm looking at my 401k tanking and I'm looking at all my other investments going south, it's really, really hard for me to look at my wife and look at my kid and say, you know what we need to do right now? Instead of like stop spending, I'm going to spend $16,000 on a pinball machine. And this is also why, I'm going to be honest, this is also why I only think the CE makes sense to get because the CE is the only one you can buy that will at least hold value. It's a good investment. If you get a chance to get a CE at MSRP, grab it. I know some of you out there are like oh I just going to let it go and let someone else have it who wants to enjoy it I think that foolish I mean look MSRP on this game tomorrow is like an IPO price of something we know is going to go up The other thing and then I got to go, guys. I know this is not my normal show. I just want to give you some thoughts. The other thing is this. I think this hobby is going to get real soft on the secondhand market real soon. I think a lot of these boutique companies that are selling games around $10,000, I think they're going to feel this real soon. I think the fun of pinball, the fun of seeing what's next, the fun of seeing these games for sale, the fun of unboxing a new in-box game, a lot of that fun is starting to erode. And I even mean it when I talk to my really rich friends in pinball. Nobody wants it to cost $30,000 plus to unbox two games. Two. for 30 plus thousand dollars. It's just the experience is not there for that much money. Now, all that being said, this game's gonna sell out pretty instantly. All that being said, it's Pat Lawler, it's Toy Story, it's a perfect theme for pinball. I'm having a hard time sleeping because I also can't wait to see it. I'm super excited and I can't wait to put one next to my Guns N' Roses because this is another dream theme for me. Killian has been running around with his baby Buzz Lightyear. That's what it's about for me. I want him to grow up loving Guns N' Roses like his father. I want him to grow up loving Buzz and Woody like his father does. And that's what it's all about. These are toys meant to bring us joy. They're not going to change our lives, but they do enhance our lives. And life can be pretty stressful. It can be pretty hard. and if you've worked hard for your money, you're allowed to go enjoy it and you can spend it where you want to spend it. So let's be kind to each other. Let's not like waving in each other's faces that you got a CE and someone else didn't. And look, I've always said it. We really should just be keeping these companies accountable. The other thing that I heard yesterday is that Jack is telling people that they fixed the flipper issues on the games. So that's interesting, right? He says they fixed the mushy flipper feel. Now, what's interesting about that is, is it a software issue? Is this something they can update on all the old games that have the soft feel? Is it a hardware issue? Are they going to be installing fans in Toy Story so that it doesn't suffer from the heat, right? Because that's what's happening is the games are heating up and then you get soft flippers. It also is, I think, a software issue where there's a little bit of a delay between when you press the button and the flipper activates. You know, I think someone studied this, that Stern machines actually trigger the flipper faster than JJP. And then obviously, what are the playfields going to be like? Like, I mean, they made games. And so these games are going to be out on location, I think, tomorrow. And what happens if we start to see playfield issues? Is this going to be the end of, like, the goodwill between customers and Jersey Jack? You know, all of our memories are short. Like everyone is still going all in on this. Like nobody cares. Like they didn't replace Mirko. And we're still lining up with our checkbooks to get this game. Because we're kind of like obsessed with this thing. We're kind of overly addicted to it. There's a lot worse things you could be addicted to and obsessed over than pinball machines. Did that even make sense? Everybody, it is 105 in the morning. I just want to thank each and every one of you too. Because the reason I you. and I'm sorry this show's a little sloppy. This isn't how I normally do it. you because your contribution, even as the economy starts to go south, we're still holding really strong with 521 subscribers. I thank you so much. You know, it's $5. I'm not raising the price on you. The price to listen to Canada's Pinball Podcast won't become inflated. And I know that each and every one of you is making really tough financial decisions. so I'm happy you've stuck with this show. I can't wait for you to hear my thoughts on Toy Story. I'm going to give my initial reaction to Toy Story to all of you first. I'm not going to do a Facebook Live. I'm not going to tell everybody on Facebook for free. I want you to hear how excited I am or how disappointed I am in this game because I think it's going to go one way or the other. I hope I'm excited and I hope you get to hear it first. everybody have a good night and we will have obviously more shows this week and more facebook lives but i just wanted to say thank you from ireland be good
game
Willy Wonka pinballgame
Pirates of the Caribbean pinballgame
Dialed In pinballgame
Kaneda's Pinball Podcastorganization
Spooky Pinballcompany
Mirkoperson
  • $

    market_signal: Prediction that dealers with limited allocations will list Toy Story games for $20k-$30k secondary market markup

    medium · Kaneda: 'you're going to see some dealers... list them for sale for $25,000 to $30,000'

  • ?

    business_signal: Broader recession/economic decline context (stock market collapse, crypto crash) affecting luxury discretionary spending; uncertainty about consumer confidence

    high · Kaneda: 'We are headed for some really, really dark times... it's really, really hard for me to look at my wife... say, you know what we need to do right now? ...spend $16,000 on a pinball machine'

  • ?

    product_launch: Toy Story CE order banks open at noon EST; unclear when/if reveal video drops before or after order window opens; creates decision time pressure

    high · Kaneda: 'tomorrow at noon Eastern Standard Time, you are going to be given permission to send a pinball company probably $15,000 to $16,000'

  • ?

    collector_signal: Only CE tier expected to hold value; LE will depreciate rapidly due to high production volume; CE acquisition at MSRP positioned as 'good investment'

    high · Kaneda: 'the CE is the only one you can buy that will at least hold value... If you get a chance to get a CE at MSRP, grab it'

  • ?

    event_signal: Prediction of server strain/slowdown starting ~11:45am EST as high volume of buyers attempt to access order site at noon

    medium · Kaneda: 'you're going to start to see JJP's store site start to get really slow... starting around like 1145 a.m.'

  • ?

    product_strategy: CE production capped at low numbers; distributor allocations small; designed to create scarcity, FOMO, and secondary market demand

    high · Kaneda: 'I think this game is going to sell out pretty instantly... You are not going to find one with a distributor'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Shift from legacy show-and-play at trade shows (Dialed In, Pirates at TPF) to pre-order model; minimal marketing teaser; video reveal timing unclear

    high · Kaneda: 'Those were the good days... They would show up with the game at a show... Those days are gone... Nowadays, they say, hey, we're going to make a game. Give me your money'