Episode 880: "Heard Jaws Review From Stern Employee"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·24m 21s·analyzed·Nov 27, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda claims Jaws is a 10/10, predicts day-one sellout, warns of LE devaluation strategy.

Summary

Kaneda reports hearing from a Stern employee that Jaws is a "10 out of 10" game comparable to or better than Godzilla, predicted to be revealed mid-December and sell out immediately at $13,000 LE MSRP. He argues Keith Elwin games retain value, cites James Bond 60th as a catastrophic failure ($9k depreciation), warns that future anniversary editions may devalue current LEs, and positions Jaws as a market-shifting release that will dominate against Jersey Jack's recent offerings.

Key Claims

Heard from someone at Stern Pinball who has played Jaws and confirms it is a 10 out of 10, as good as or better than Godzilla
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing insider source at Stern; unverified hearsay
Jaws LE will sell out day one despite $13,000 price and 1,000 unit production run
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on Keith Elwin track record
James Bond 60th is the single biggest financial loss in pinball history, with units offered at $11,000 vs $20,000 MSRP ($9k depreciation)
medium confidence · Kaneda citing second-hand report of recent offer; verifiable but not independently confirmed in content
Jaws reveal is expected mid-December (December 15th or 19th)
low confidence · Kaneda rumor; no official confirmation
Stern plans to release Jaws LE in 2023-2024, followed by Metallica anniversary edition and Godzilla 70th anniversary edition in 2025
low confidence · Kaneda speculation about future product roadmap
Keith Elwin has never made a game that lost value except James Bond 60th
medium confidence · Kaneda opinion based on historical observation of secondary market pricing
Foo Fighters LE lost $3,000 in value due to theme appeal issues despite brilliant execution
low confidence · Kaneda analysis of market performance
Toy Story 4, Godfather, and Galactic Tank Force are flops that lost significant value
medium confidence · Kaneda characterization based on secondary market observation
Stern will increasingly sell LEs direct to collectors rather than through distributors to maximize margin
low confidence · Kaneda speculation about future business strategy
Elton John LE is not selling out and sits unsold due to lack of mechanical depth and upcoming Jaws competition

Notable Quotes

“It is confirmed to be Jaws, so it's not going to be anything other than Jaws... the game is going to be a 10 out of 10, that it is as good, if not better than Godzilla Pinball.”
Kaneda @ early — Core claim about Jaws quality based on insider source; sets tone for entire episode
“The Jaws hype drain is about to leave the building and I mean it when I say it. You might as well get on the list to get a Jaws LE.”
Kaneda @ early-mid — Direct call to action predicting immediate sellout and advising pre-commitment
“There has never been a single pinball machine that has lost $9,000 in value over its MSRP price. Talk about the biggest stinker in the history of pinball and it came from Keith Elwin and Stern.”
Kaneda @ early-mid — Stark criticism of James Bond 60th as unprecedented failure, establishes negative benchmark
“It wasn't Keith Elwin's fault. It was the marketing morons over at Stern that thought they could treat us like a bunch of idiots and we responded.”
Kaneda @ early-mid — Attribution of James Bond 60th failure to Stern marketing, not Elwin's design
“I fully believe in 2025... we're going to see Metallica anniversary edition and... Godzilla's 70th anniversary edition, which is going to piss off all you Godzilla LE owners.”
Kaneda @ mid — Prediction of future Stern strategy to release enhanced versions that devalue existing LEs; signals market concern
“I think Seth Davis has really taken this ship in the wrong direction, and I don't think it's fun anymore to invest all this money in LEs knowing that down the road, a better version of what you love is going to come out.”
Kaneda @ mid — Direct criticism of Stern CEO Seth Davis's product strategy; raises question of LE reliability as investment
“When this game comes out, I think it's going to be the game so many people have been waiting for... a game that just checks so many boxes, plays beautifully, hopefully looks beautifully, has a theme that everybody recognizes.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith Elwinperson Seth DavispersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Jawsgame

Signals

?
machine_intel: Kaneda claims to have heard from Stern employee that Jaws is a 10/10 game comparable to/better than Godzilla; game confirmed to release
medium · "I heard from someone over at Stern Pinball, someone who has played this game. It is confirmed to be Jaws... the game is going to be a 10 out of 10, that it is as good, if not better than Godzilla Pinball."
?
product_launch: Jaws LE expected to be revealed mid-December (Dec 15-19), with actual release in early 2024; 1,000 unit production run at $13,000 MSRP
low · "The other rumor is that this game is gonna be revealed in mid-December. I'm hearing that. The game reveal is on December 15th or 19th... I still think we're going to have to wait until sometime in early 2024 to see Jaws."
$
market_signal: James Bond 60th experiencing unprecedented depreciation ($9,000 loss from MSRP), described as worst financial failure in pinball history; reflects failed marketing strategy
medium · "Someone was offered a James Bond 60th with low plays for $11,000... There has never been a single pinball machine that has lost $9,000 in value over its MSRP price."
?
product_strategy: Kaneda predicts Stern will release Metallica and Godzilla 70th anniversary editions in 2025 to devalue original LEs and drive new sales; signals shift in Stern business model
low · "I fully believe in 2025... we're going to see Metallica anniversary edition and... Godzilla's 70th anniversary edition, which is going to piss off all you Godzilla LE owners."
~
sentiment_shift: Growing collector dissatisfaction with LE investment model due to future variant releases (Jurassic Park, Elvira Blood Kiss, Godzilla LEs all devalued by newer versions)

Topics

Jaws game quality and hypeprimaryLE pricing strategy and value retentionprimaryKeith Elwin track record and Stern dominanceprimaryJames Bond 60th failure and market lessonsprimaryAnniversary editions and collector backlashprimaryJersey Jack vs Stern competitive positioningsecondaryRecent pinball releases as underperformerssecondaryAlien Ripley Edition art criticismmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.62)— Enthusiastically positive about Jaws and Keith Elwin's capabilities, but highly critical of Stern's product strategy (anniversary editions), Seth Davis's leadership, James Bond 60th execution, and recent market-wide underperformance. Frustrated with collector experience being degraded by repeat LE model variations. Jersey Jack criticized as weak competitor.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.073

🎵 Ah, Tobiah, So Desire, Raise his deep within 🎵 🎵 Sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit up 🎵 Ah, everybody welcome, happy Monday morning, it's Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, I'm your host Kaneda. It is gonna be December this Friday, December 1st, it is my 5 year wedding anniversary with Brenda. I'm gonna get her five pinball machines and see if that doesn't destroy our marriage. Everybody, here's what we're gonna talk about on this episode. What are the things I tell everybody to do? I tell you to wait and see. I tell you why by now. Now look, I've always said there are two exceptions to this rule. And you know what those two exceptions are, don't you, by now? If it's a AAA theme that is a take my money theme. Or if the game is being made by Keith Elwin. And we are on the verge, we are on the eve of something really, really special I'm hearing. I'm here to tell you right now, I heard from someone over at Stern Pinball, someone who has played this game. It is confirmed to be Jaws, so it's not going to be anything other than Jaws. And here is what I am hearing the game is going to be. I am hearing the game is going to be a 10 out of 10, that it is as good, if not better than Godzilla Pinball. And we all know that Godzilla is held up as one of the greatest pinball machines of all time, if not the best Stern machine ever made, some people say. Now look, that raises a lot of questions, you know, if this game is as good as or better than Godzilla, is this game gonna have all the assets from the movie? Because Godzilla is filled with all of the assets from Godzilla movies. So I don't know if that's going to be the case. I heard that is not going to be the case. Is the art package gonna be as good as Godzilla? Zombietti made that art package. I heard Jaws wasn't that sexy. So take it with a little bit of a grain of salt, but here's what I'm here to tell you right now ladies and gentlemen. The Jaws hype train is about to leave the building and I mean it when I say it. You might as well get on the list to get a Jaws LE. Do I think Jaws LE is going to sell out day one? The answer is yes. Even though the game is going to be $13,000, even though they're going to make a thousand of them, here is my reason why I think this game is going to be a day one sellout. And I think if you wait on it, don't blame me because I'm telling you right now, you might as well grab one. And here's my rationale for that. A premium, no matter what you do to it, no matter how many stickers and mods you throw onto a premium, Is출 segurança � ecosystem administrator Minutenmitt çek Tri Gerry señor의 수mat negotiate tatgalán coses똬시 Sacheべ It's the only time they've been able to express an excuse that Le отв CASına phi Has there ever been a Keith Owen game that has lost a single dollar other than, this is the big caveat, other than that stupid James Bond 60th? I'm here to tell you right now, someone hit me up yesterday and now James Bond 60th, are you ready for the new price? Someone was offered a James Bond 60th with low plays for $11,000. The game is the single biggest Kevin Loza financially in the history of pinball. There has never been a single pinball machine that has lost $9,000 in value over its MSRP price. Talk about the biggest stinker in the history of pinball and it came from Keith Elwin and Stern. But it wasn't Keith Elwin's fault. It was the marketing morons over at Stern that thought they could treat us like a bunch of idiots and we responded. Learn節目 Commentétaisший monet Ab à laدة pentagône du livre nishmy've a de lênger transistor matنيã white she ok bee ne ofhhhhat vaàlōne 22umnies orchidea mail at contact us узнаitopook™ in accord with Aye yairma ,ashed块 bearing The end of the show. Thank you for watching. I hope you enjoyed it. I'll see you next time. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. There will be a Godzilla LE but we know a distributor is going to offer you or lowball you and you always going to get more money if you sell your game privately It just like a used car It like if you trade it in yeah it easier to do that but you going to lose a couple thousand dollars because the distro wants to make that on your used game sale So you not going to lose money if you go in on a Jaws LE Like it not going to sink like Foo Fighters did It definitely not going to sink like Venom It not going to sink like Godfather So I think if you go in on a Jaws LE So if you're looking for Jaws LE for $13,000, you might as well. The best case scenario is it might go up a few thousand dollars. I don't think we're going to see $13,000 pins go up anymore to $18,000, $19,000. I just don't think we're going to see that because the big fear now, and Stern did this to themselves, is we all know that this is not going to be the creme de la creme version of Jaws. We know they're going to make an anniversary edition. We now know that Stern is going to create new variations once the hype dies down a little bit to make more money down the road. So I fully believe in 2025. I don't think we're going to see it in 2024. I think we're going to see Jaws LE in 2023, 2024. And then we're going to see Metallica anniversary edition and we're going to seeGodzilla's 70th anniversary edition, which is going to piss off all youGodzilla LE owners. And that's going to be the other thing that makes all theseGodzilla LEs go up for sale. Because if you really I'm going to have to buy your game again. And that's not something that makes a lot of collectors happy. I think Seth Davis has really taken this ship in the wrong direction, and I don't think it's fun anymore to invest all this money in L.E.s knowing that down the road, a better version of what you love is going to come out. Let me use an example in my own life. It's as if like I love Brenda to death. I love everything about Brenda. There's like almost nothing I would change in Brenda, but imagine if like another Brenda came out looked exactly like Brenda would just maybe one single little enhancement. I know she's probably hearing me through the walls and they're like there's nothing you can enhance in me, baby boy. But that's my point is like when you really love something and you've committed to it the way people have committed to these Stern LEs, they just don't want to see another version that's a little bit better come out down the road because then it puts you in this like dilemma. What do I do? I love the game. I never wanted to get rid of it. Now I've got to upgrade something I never thought I'd had to upgrade and the two real audiences feeling that this year are the Jurassic Park le owners because the new one is nicer and all those Elvira owners because the BloodKiss Edition is nicer than the 40th and the other versions of the game that people spent a lot more money on. I think the biggest pain point is the Elvira 40th people because you spent like 20 to to đến 25000 2009'tagliosteadiращ schw huiski I'm going to be transparent about what I'm doing. The good news now with a thousand LEs in the world, it's never going to be hard to get one, right? It's not like it used to be back in the day when there were only 500 and half of them were supposedly going overseas. If you want one, you can get one, but you've got to move fast. You're still going to have to move in the first 24 hours to get this game. I would be ready to pull the trigger immediately. Don't worry about buying it directly from Stern. Tom NOGHLY and Ross LANDS, Distro Atomic cubic overall, Good day everyone, my name is Karl Derecht. Sorry, my book is Tinder became like this because in 2013, Spooky pinball started, it opened on the spelujah newsletter in아요zus Sundar 10000 so it's often used as self-subscription partition, I'm a customer service rep and paid the dude like $75,000 a year and then had someone who was able to mail out parts. Why do we need to keep handing all that work over to distributors? Because it's not like these things are breaking down left and right. You know, there's no like annual checkups that these games need. So it's really interesting. And you know, with the collector community especially, think about it like this. Like if you're going to sell anything direct, just sell the LEs directly because think about it. Cave bezekhoud Squeas Morgan Subtitles by the Amara community I going to be a little bit more per sale than if I give this to a distributor That has to be going through their minds a little bit as these companies are chasing the almighty dollar I got distro friends and I don want to see them cut out of the equation but I do think we're going to start to see more and more distros are going to have to sell used games more and more and do trade-ins and stuff like that. That's where they can be really convenient. Like a distro will pick up your game. They have their shipping companies on speed dial. tähän All gonna make a lot of money. It will be a win-win-win for everybody. Distros will get their payday, Stern's gonna get their payday, and customers are gonna get a new Keith Elwin machine. I mean, that is great. Obviously, I would like it to be the way it used to be where games were like 8,500 for LEs and everybody was really winning, but those days are gone. All right, so Jaws Pinball, 10 out of 10, we shall see. The other rumor is that this game is gonna be revealed in mid-December. I'm hearing Neil McCrae say that. The game reveal is on December 15th or 19th. We know that these pinball companies really like to give us something special around the holidays. We tend to see games revealed or announced around Christmas time. So will Stern Pinball do that? I still think we're going to have to wait until sometime in early 2024 to see Jaws. Alright, what else is going on in pinball this week? So let's talk about Alien Pinball real quick. The Ripley Edition now has Ripley on the left side of the cabinet. Not sure why the backbox has a drag-and-drop Photoshop image of Ripley with the cat. That doesn't make any sense, PinballBrothers. If you're gonna have all of the game be illustrated or an art style by Orick Lawson, why would you stop there? Like, you know what I'm saying? You were like, 95% of the game all looks the same, And now you've made one of the panels or two of the panels on the backbox just look radically different. I think it looks a little lazy. I think they should have illustrated over that image and made it look more airbrushed the way the rest of the Ripley images look on the game. But that being said, I'm not going to complain that much because I'm just happy there's an Ellen Ripley version of Alien. For those of you new to pinball, you don't remember the days in which Andrew Highway lied to all of us and said that Ripley wasn't available. He was lying. He just didn't have the money because he didn't know how to run a business. And at the same time, Ghostbusters came out and featured Sigourney Weaver on Ghostbusters artwork. So we knew he was lying then and we know he's lying now. He also lied when he said, you're not allowed to illustrate alien artwork. Okay, Andrew, go look at all the Ahmed Peter help see provides you is it is he is advice has I'm really curious how long it's going to take before these pinball companies realize like what they're going to be able to create using AI artists, so they're not paying like a regular artist like six figures. But here's the thing, the really good artists and I mean this, the really good artists are going to start to use AI as a tool themselves because you still have to put in all the right prompts to get back the right stuff. Journeyas in the controllers Neo требavinarent. relating egotać regard for the controlsason aradahip Larry-Lenova, Vorolov Sed ponerSunice.com,eeotagantes interviewed at BitsCorner.org, in order to gain the hands of theruit and嘛n. at the n m accuses that the technical crosses are alsoömant. I do think that hype is going to die down once Jaws hits. When Jaws hits, it's going to create a seismic event in the pinball market. It's going to create a moment that we've been waiting for. Let me be candid here for a minute. I think most of us have been truly underwhelmed by the magic we've seen in pinball over the last couple of years. Foo Fighters shot great. Great layout, fun game. They did so much with the code we never thought they would do. If that was just a music pin none of us would really love it but they really got creative with it and they did the most they could with that theme but it's still a game where the LE lost $3,000 in value. Why is that? Because of the theme, right? It's just not a theme most people want. And even though they executed it so brilliantly and I still think Jack Danger's gonna win game of the year with Foo Fighters, it's just not gonna go down in history as a game that won over people the way Godzilla did. Alright what else did we get Toy Story 4 and Godfather were both flops by Jersey Jack Pinball None of those games won people over Those games are sinking lead balloons It like catching a Falling Knife Each of those games has lost to in value and we at the point now where a Toy Story LE is about to sell for like and Godfather is not far behind And those games are never going to come back in popularity okay Then we got Galactic Tank Force Don even need to waste much time on that game That was a colossal failure So there really hasn been anything over the last two years that really won over the pinball buying community quite like Godzilla, quite like a Keith Elwin pin. And so when this game comes out, I think it's going to be the game so many people have been I'm going to be talking about the pinball game that I've been waiting for, a game that just checks so many boxes, plays beautifully, hopefully looks beautifully, has a theme that everybody recognizes and is just damn pinball fun. And we know this, you know this, I know this. The team that Keith Elwin has over there is the best team in all of pinball right now. They are better than everybody else. They are leagues better than everybody else. He gets the best code, he gets the best art, he gets the best design, he gets the best use of the bomb. He knows how to use the bomb better than everybody else. I mean, Godzilla only had $100 more bomb than Led Zeppelin. Right? Elton John came out. Did that win over the pinball buying community? No. Like, look, the games are still sitting there. I mean, it's kind of embarrassing. Like, they're not going to sell out of Elton John's CEs maybe ever. And again, there's a reason why they launched Elton John so early, because they're nervous. They are absolutely terrified over at Jersey Jack Pinball. The moment Jaws drops, they know people are not going to spend $12,000 to $15,000 on an Elton John pin even though it shoots well, even though the layout is great, even though the light show is spectacular. They know there's not much in it though. There really isn't. If you turn off the lights and you just look down at Elton John mechanically, what are you really seeing that's worth $12,000 to $15,000? And so yes, I much rather sight unseen commit $13,000 Okay, The Collideoscope Screensaver Code in that game is gonna get so old and it's gonna get exposed for being a lackluster use of the screen when we see what Stern does with jaws. I mean look at what Stern did with Foo Fighters. We really haven't talked about it that much but Foo Fighters is one of the most impressive illustrations and code that has ever appeared on an LCD screen and Stern's gonna keep doing it better. They're gonna put even more in Keith Elwin's jaws and they might have to Top Ten Panthers of 2019 The only thing that would hurt that value is if they come out with an anniversary edition Lin Anka, Garfield It transformed.. There's no LCD screen. You know, no one's owned a Pulp Fiction yet. Will it last in your home after like 500 plays? Are you going to be sick of it or are you still going to enjoy the experience? We shall see. You know, modern pinball is modern pinball. And when you remove the screen, we haven't really had a modern single level game like that stay in people's collections very long. I mean, there's a reason why people are selling these James Bond 60th, even though they shoot well, there's just not a lot in the game. Everybody, thank you so much. Happy Monday. Again, another shout out to Steve Jablonski. You know, I'm going to keep shoutinging him out until someone else joins his realm at $100 a month. And hey, I just want to say this. If anyone's coming to New York City during the holiday season, this is a popular tourist destination, please let me know. Hit me up on private message and let's go get a drink. Let's talk pinball. Let's maybe have some omakase if you're a member of the omakase club, everybody. Have a great Monday. We'll talk to you soon. Get in on a JawsLE list. Later. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, please subscribe to our channel. We are very happy to help you. We are also very grateful to our sponsors. Thank you for watching. See you next time. Bye. www.unity days pinball