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Episode 945: "Will Wick Work For Stern?

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·13m 5s·held·May 4, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.024

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts John Wick will be Stern's next Venom—commercially disappointing despite solid execution.

Summary

Kaneda speculates critically about Stern's upcoming John Wick pinball machine, questioning whether the theme will appeal to the aging male-dominated collector demographic and predicting it will underperform commercially like Venom. He argues the theme lacks deep cultural resonance compared to legacy franchises, doubts Stern will implement significant mechanical innovations, and expects secondary market depreciation similar to other recent underperforming Stern releases.

Key Claims

  • John Wick movie franchise has grossed over $1 billion at the box office

    high confidence · Kaneda, stating franchise box office performance

  • John Wick Pinball will be designed by a brand new designer never heard of before, following a Keith Elwin game

    medium confidence · Kaneda, making prediction about designer, though later corrected/conflicted by knowledge that Elliot Eisman actually designed it

  • The pinball buying demographic is primarily men aged 40-60

    medium confidence · Kaneda, making demographic assertion about market

  • John Wick hasn't achieved the cultural penetration or nostalgia of legacy franchises

    medium confidence · Kaneda opinion: 'John Wick hasn't made its way into our souls. It hasn't made its way into our veins.'

  • Stern will not implement significant mechanical innovations in John Wick Pinball

    medium confidence · Kaneda prediction: 'I think they're going to make a game with a lot of flow...but I don't think you're gonna see a game with a lot of mechanical wow in it'

  • John Wick Limited Edition machines will depreciate to ~$9,000 value within 8 months if produced at 1,000 units at $13,000 retail

    low confidence · Kaneda prediction based on secondary market trends of recent Stern releases

  • Pulp Fiction Pinball lacks modern features like movie clips and scenes from the films

    high confidence · Kaneda direct observation: 'That game doesn't have any clips from the movies. It doesn't have any of the scenes'

  • Jersey Jack Pinball's light show technology would better suit John Wick's techno/rave aesthetic than Stern's

    medium confidence · Kaneda opinion comparing manufacturer capabilities

Notable Quotes

  • “Will this be a theme that the pinball buying demographic will warm up to and will support?”

    Kaneda @ early — Sets up the central thesis of the episode questioning John Wick's market viability

  • “Thank you Stern Pinball for bringing out a game that's geared towards men that like action movies”

    Kaneda @ middle — Acknowledges John Wick's thematic appeal to a underserved demographic, but immediately follows with skepticism

  • “John Wick hasn't made its way into our souls. It hasn't made its way into our veins.”

    Kaneda @ middle — Core philosophical critique that the franchise lacks the cultural depth needed for pinball success

  • “This is going to be their next Venom.”

    Kaneda @ middle — Explicit comparison to recent Stern underperformer; main prediction/thesis

  • “I don't think John Wick is going to be a super successful game for Stern.”

    Kaneda @ late — Direct statement of overall thesis

  • “How do you recreate that in pinball format? And I just don't think it's going to work.”

    Kaneda @ late — Challenges the core gameplay-to-theme translation difficulty

  • “Everybody wait and see. If Stern makes a thousand John Wick L.E.s, at thirteen thousand a pop, They're all gonna be worth like $9,000 in just like eight months.”

    Kaneda @ ending — Predicts secondary market collapse and advises against early purchase

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJohn WickgameKeith ElwinpersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyVenomgamePulp Fictiongame

Signals

  • ?

    product_strategy: Kaneda questions whether John Wick theme has sufficient cultural penetration and nostalgia to drive premium pinball sales at $9,500-$13,000 price points

    high · Kaneda: 'I still don't think John Wick though has enough nostalgia, like has enough of a fan base, has enough of like a community around this property.'

  • $

    market_signal: Host predicts John Wick won't justify premium pricing and will see rapid secondary market depreciation (LE units declining from $13k to ~$9k in 8 months)

    medium · Kaneda prediction of secondary market collapse if 1,000 LEs produced at $13k retail

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Kaneda predicts Stern will prioritize software/flow over mechanical wow-factor, expecting minimal signature toys (cheap Mustang sculpt, basic ball-load mechanism, no lower/upper playfields)

    medium · Kaneda: 'I think they're gonna make a game with a lot of flow...but I don't think you're gonna see a game with a lot of mechanical wow in it'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Kaneda expresses skepticism that John Wick theme will resonate with core pinball demographic (men 40-60) despite film's commercial success, suggesting cultural/emotional disconnect

    high · Kaneda: 'John Wick hasn't made its way into our souls...I just not sure that Stern Pinball will be successful in selling a John Wick game'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Kaneda suggests Jersey Jack's light show technology would better suit John Wick's techno/rave music aesthetic than Stern's, implying Stern made suboptimal manufacturing choice

    medium · Kaneda: 'I feel like Jersey Jack Pinball has the only light show that would do this sort of techno rave hitman music justice. It's not gonna work with Stern Pinball.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.039

0:00
Backpacking- skate Holder Mad Wabby. Front cockpit shin. Backpacking-late Johnny Pinball Подfeud. Alright, so John Wick, the man, the hitman, the murdered dog, the Avenger that is the most badass Keanu Reeves film we've seen since The Matrix. It is now official. Stern Pinball is making John Wick. And on this episode of Canadian Pinball Podcast, I want to tell you right now, the baby is not here. So I'm going to be doing episodes until the baby arrives. Goli worked with Karl De vulnerabilities Bryan Kr Line, Pate outta P mary Mag взять, Game Over modal ry Testament presents Io Rinaldin radiant, patsi8 blin Gorayake Oreo raubeeee, Christian Santiago F Cheer default Cardinala, John Wick, the hitman, the badass movies John Wick, a franchise that is grossed over a billion dollars at the box office. Will this be a theme that the pinball buying demographic will warm up to and will support? And also remember this. This game is going to be a brand new designer that we've never heard of right following a Keith Elwin game in Now, let's talk about it. All right, so first and foremost, how are we going to dissect this? We're not going to see the game until Tuesday, but let's just talk about the theme, the theme of John Wick. Now, look, if you've seen these movies and you're a man that grew up in the 80s and the 90s and you grew up on action movies and you love The Matrix and you love Schwarzenegger and you love John Woo films like The Killer, Like this is John Wick. It's a movie in which a guy is a retired hitman and they kill his dog and it's like the Russian Mafia and he hides his weaponry under the concrete floor of his garage. And if I'm spoiling anything right now, you're not gonna buy this game. The movie is out for so many years that the statue of limitations on spoiling the theme of John Wick is well past due. The movies are super awesome. They are super fun. They are literally like John Woo meets the Matrix meets Keanu Reeves meets a guy that can only kill you with a headshot. Plans are set into Riddle of waiting for I don think so But that being said think about the pinball landscape right now Where most of the pinball buying demographic is men, 40 to 60. And you're hitting them right now, just right now in the pinball world. You're hitting them with jaws, Which is a slow movie from the 1970s about a shark that eats a few people. You're hitting people with Looney Tunes. You're hitting people with Texas Chainsaw Massacre, which really only appeals to the people making the game. You're hitting people with The Princess Bride. You're hitting people with Pulp Fiction, but not really. That game doesn't have any clips from the movies. It doesn't have any of the scenes from the movies coming at you. It's more just like callouts and only five songs. It's not really like a modern pinball game where you're playing through the Pulp Fiction movie. And then you're coming at us with stuff like Abba. You're coming at us with stuff like what else is right now new in the pinball world? Barry O's Barbecue Challenge. You're coming at us with Ninja Clips. You're coming at us with all these other games elemental like like seriously when you think about it it's like thank you stern pinball for bringing out a game that's geared towards men that like action movies now will John Wick work for Stern pinball you know will this game be enough to get people to plop down money that's what I'm going to talk about on this short episode of Canadian's pinball podcast billion dollar The movie is going to be a fifth movie. It's one of the only franchises where the sequels have all individually earned more money than the original movie. The original movie made like 80 million at the box office and the last John Wick movie alone globally made over 400 million dollars. Now here's the thing. I still don't think John Wick though has enough nostalgia, like has enough of a fan base, has enough of like a community around this property. Sure, I've seen every movie, I've enjoyed them, they're fun, but John Wick hasn't made its way into our souls. It hasn't made its way into our veins. It not the kind of movie that you dream about that you can wait to watch again It the kind of movie where like maybe you seen it once and that it You not going to see each of them like multiple times And even though it appeals more to like modern men than Elton John I just not sure that Stern Pinball will be successful in selling a John Wick game If they gonna make a thousand Ellie at a pop and they want people to buy premiums for like $9,500 that's what has me concerned about John Wick And I know we're gonna see a lot about this game on Tuesday We're gonna see who's designing it what mechs are in it and the music in the trailer when I heard the music Atomic��arnat intrinsic Greg R Mutta, Trev Mondac odpow Karl De infectriment, Dave Palin Ár, Lytzy тебя, Leave ins Home by Edina, I feel like Jersey Jack Pinball has the only light show that would do this sort of techno rave hitman music justice. It's not gonna work with Stern Pinball. And I think what's gonna happen is this, and this is just Kaneda's prediction. I think this game is gonna come out. I don't think it's gonna have a lot of wow mechanisms in it. And I also just don't think people are gonna like be won over By a Stern john wick game for this much money and I think this is going to be the ultimate test of stern pinball is because I feel like when I think about it, this is going to be their next venom. It's not going to be bad. Trust me, it's not going to be bad. It's going to be fun like every stern machine, but I just don't think there's going to be enough there. And that's my thing is like now that these games are so expensive. And now that everybody's looking In the meantime, I'm just gonna let you know that, like, I'm not trying to bring this game out of my gaming room, I'm just trying to bring my game into my gaming room. I don't think John Wick has it. I don't think John Wick as a theme is gonna make you wanna remove a game from your gaming room. I also don't think John Wick is a game that's gonna crush it on location. I just think this is like a B-level theme for Stern. I feel like this is gonna be another Venom pinball machine. Story juga guy Story thickening gains Story enforced
Johnny Pinball
person
The Matrixgame
Keanu Reevesperson
  • ?

    collector_signal: Kaneda advises collectors to wait rather than buy at launch, predicting rapid LE depreciation and establishing expectation that John Wick will not hold value

    high · Kaneda: 'Everybody wait and see...They're all gonna be worth like $9,000 in just like eight months'

  • ?

    operational_signal: Host expresses doubt that John Wick will perform well on location (arcade/bar) despite theme appeal to action-movie demographic

    medium · Kaneda: 'I also don't think John Wick is a game that's gonna crush it on location'

  • ?

    product_concern: Kaneda identifies fundamental design challenge: how to recreate John Wick's gun-centric, head-shot focused action gameplay in pinball format, skeptical solution exists

    medium · Kaneda: 'How do you recreate that in pinball format? And I just don't think it's going to work.'

  • ?

    business_signal: Kaneda's prediction that John Wick will replicate Venom's commercial underperformance suggests Stern may face inventory/liquidity challenges if sales disappoint

    low · Kaneda: 'this is going to be the ultimate test of stern pinball...This is going to be their next venom'

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Kaneda lists potential upcoming pinball themes (Matrix, Harry Potter, Back to the Future) as likely to outperform John Wick, suggesting market appetite for other franchises

    low · Kaneda: 'I still think We Are Pinball going to get a Matrix Pinball Machine, We Are Pinball going to get a Harry Potter Back to the Future'

    • 9:00
    Story In a really long time. I don't think this is the kind of theme that is going to make people like have to have it. I think people are going to be curious about it. I think we're going to play it on location, but I don't think John Wick is the game people really want right now. And that's just my two cents. And I just want to say this right now. I don't think John Wick is going to be a super successful game for Stern. In inclusion of ROM parallite, 194 And by the way they did not say, the All these are just a bunch of boxes people want checked for pinball and I think there is just a lot more coming around the corner that is going to make people want to wait for that I still think we are going to get a Matrix Pinball Machine, we are going to get a Harry Potter Pinball Machine, we are going to get Back to the Future and again, as much as I love these movies, just because I love a movie, doesn't mean it's right for pinball. The other part is as I think about John Wick Pinball, it's not the kind of theme that screams out like world under glass. Like these would be the mechanisms. These would be the things I'd want to see in a John Wick game. And that's the thing. And I think what Stern's going to do, I think they're going to make a game with a lot of flow. I think you're gonna make a game with a lot of software, but I don't think you're gonna see a game with a lot of mechanical wow in it. I just don't. And we're probably gonna get like a cheap Mustang, we're gonna get a cheap way to like load balls into the chamber of the Gun, we're probably not gonna get any lower or upper playfields in this game, we're gonna get a cheap sculpt or plastic of the Continental. And that's the thing about John Wick Pinball is like to me, when I think about the John Wick movies, it's all about Keanu Reeves going berserk, chasing down this like Russian Arabian Mafia, shooting a hundred guys in the head with his gun. How do you recreate that in pinball format? And I just don't think it's going to work. So this is going to be a little bit of a short episode of Canadian Pinball Podcast. I'm waiting for the baby to come. The List of If you know what we want, I know what's around the corner, and John Wick, albeit a curious theme, a contemporary theme in pinball, it's just not going to be a game that's going to separate you from thirteen thousand dollars, ten thousand dollars, and everybody's just going to wait and see on this title. Because we all know, if Stern makes a thousand John Wick L.E.s, at thirteen thousand a pop, They're all gonna be worth like $9,000 in just like eight months. Everybody wait and see. Kaneda loves you. John Wick, I can't wait to see what they do, but it's just gonna be the next Venom from Stern. Kaneda out.
    12:53
    Filmed 21 December, tuition about 18th release, and Mys