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Episode 856: "Over Crowded Launches Don't Work"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·21m 4s·analyzed·Oct 7, 2023
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda criticizes crowded game launches at Expo and teases unreleased machines including confident Back to the Future prediction.

Summary

Kaneda argues that pinball manufacturers are making a critical marketing mistake by clustering game reveals at Pinball Expo 2024, which will oversaturate the news cycle and cancel each other out. He reports rumors that Jersey Jack's Elton John is not yet in production and may only be revealed via PowerPoint, criticizes the industry's poor reveal practices, expresses skepticism about Jersey Jack's future, and teases knowledge of unreleased games including strong confidence that Back to the Future will materialize, while encouraging collectors to wait rather than buy current inventory.

Key Claims

  • Jersey Jack Pinball is revealing Elton John at Pinball Expo on October 18-19

    high confidence · Kaneda citing company confirmation; publicly known announcement

  • Elton John is not currently in production ('not on the line') according to sources close to Jersey Jack

    medium confidence · Kaneda stating he heard this from 'sources very close to this company' a day or two before recording

  • Jersey Jack did not have working machines on the line for Guns N Roses, Toy Story, or The Godfather at initial reveals

    low confidence · Kaneda's assertion comparing past launches; unverified claim about previous product availability

  • Four pinball machines will be revealed at Pinball Expo: Jersey Jack (Elton John), Mystery Pinball Company, Pinball Brothers, and Pinball Adventures

    high confidence · Kaneda citing company announcements; three confirmed, one rumored as 'Pinball Adventures'

  • Back to the Future will be released as a pinball machine, not from Stern Pinball

    medium confidence · Kaneda's strong prediction; he states 'if Back to the Future does not become a machine, I will cancel my show'

  • Jersey Jack is in 'full panic mode' due to poor sales of recent titles and fear of Jaws competition

    medium confidence · Kaneda's interpretation of business behavior and market dynamics

  • The Mystery Pinball Company will announce a limited production run at a competitive price point closer to $10,000 (Stern Premium tier)

    low confidence · Kaneda's speculation about pricing strategy for Labyrinth

  • Multiple unreleased games from John Papadiuk and other designers are coming in 2024 that will be visually superior to current games

    low confidence · Kaneda's teased prediction; he explicitly refuses to reveal details

  • Keith Elwin's Jaws will be transformative and trigger a market reset in pinball

Notable Quotes

  • “Why do these companies keep making these boneheaded moves? There is almost like no news ever in pinball and then you're going to have all of these pinball reveals during a tiny window like this.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Core thesis: manufacturers clustering reveals at Expo create marketing inefficiency

  • “Jersey Jack Pinball is in full panic mode and we all know why. They didn't sell The Last Arcade two titles and will this third strike put Jersey Jack Pinball in a terrible situation?”

    Kaneda @ mid segment — Suggests Jersey Jack facing serious business trouble after recent game flops

  • “I'm so certain it's coming out that if Back to the Future does not become a machine, I will cancel my show.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Extreme confidence level in Back to the Future prediction; willingness to stake credibility

  • “They know they only have like a three month window at most to get their game out and get their games ordered, because that's the thing. They need orders with nonrefundable deposits because... You're going to see Jaws and you'd cancel your order.”

    Kaneda @ mid-late segment — Explains manufacturer urgency: Jaws threat forces compressed sales windows and refundable-to-nonrefundable policy shifts

  • “The only thing I'm really excited to see is the Mystery Pinball Machine... this company and it's the only game I'm really excited to see. The new opportunity to win is over and people want to feel good about supporting a new company in pinball.”

    Kaneda @ mid segment — Distinguishes Mystery Pinball Company as sole bright spot; values goodwill and perceived fairness over established brands

  • “I don't think you've heard this anywhere else. I don't think we're going to see an Elton John playable game... I think what Jersey Jack wants to do is take credit for revealing two games in a calendar year.”

    Kaneda @ early-mid segment — Central rumor: Elton John not production-ready; Jersey Jack pursuing optics over delivery

  • “Jersey Jack is now like in the pinball penalty box. Nobody cares anymore. And this is not the theme that's going to get them back.”

Entities

KanedapersonJersey Jack PinballcompanyJack GuarneripersonMark RitchiepersonSteve RitchiepersonStern PinballcompanyPinball Brotherscompany

Signals

  • ?

    announcement: Jersey Jack Pinball officially confirmed Elton John reveal at Pinball Expo October 18-19; Mystery Pinball Company and Pinball Brothers also scheduling reveals same event

    high · Jersey Jack confirming next game reveal on October 19th or 18th at Pinball Expo per Kaneda citing company confirmation

  • ?

    machine_intel: Elton John alleged to not be in active production ('not on the line') per sources close to Jersey Jack; may only be revealed via PowerPoint/video rather than playable demo

    medium · Kaneda: 'my sources that are very close to this company are telling me the following... Elton John is not on the line. Jersey Jack is not making this game right now.'

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Jersey Jack Pinball positioned as having lost community trust ('in the pinball penalty box') after recent game underperformance

    high · Jersey Jack is now like in the pinball penalty box. Nobody cares anymore' and references to poor sales of recent titles

  • $

    market_signal: Industry-wide criticism of clustered game reveals at conventions causing marketing oversaturation and cancellation of individual game hype windows

    high · Kaneda emphasizing manufacturers 'canceling themselves out' by all revealing at same time; no spacing of news cycles

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Kaneda expresses extreme confidence (willing to cancel show if wrong) that Back to the Future pinball will be produced; explicitly not from Stern Pinball

    medium · I'm so certain it's coming out that if Back to the Future does not become a machine, I will cancel my show. It's not happening from Stern Pinball'

Topics

Pinball game reveal strategy and marketing inefficiencyprimaryJersey Jack Pinball business health and brand reputationprimaryJaws impact on competitive dynamics and manufacturer panicprimaryUnreleased/upcoming pinball machines and industry pipelineprimaryBack to the Future pinball game speculation and predictionprimaryMystery Pinball Company (Labyrinth) as emerging competitorsecondaryCommunity FOMO dynamics and purchasing behaviorsecondaryPinball manufacturer production readiness and delayssecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Kaneda expresses strong frustration with manufacturer decision-making, particularly Jersey Jack's strategy and industry-wide marketing failures. However, he shows genuine enthusiasm for Mystery Pinball Company and teased unreleased games. Overall tone is critical of current state while optimistic about 2024 pipeline.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.063

Happy Saturday everybody. I'm amped. I got some great scoops for everybody out there. We're going to talk all about what's happening in pinball and trust me, you're really going to want to listen to this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Take it away. Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, everybody. 620 club members, can't be wrong. Okay, so I'm so excited to do this episode of the show because I'm just going to tell you some truth bombs on this episode and you're really going to want to listen to the end because what I'm going to tell you at the end of this episode should help guide each and every one of you as you think about what you're going to be doing next. We're going to get in the pinball world. Pinball Expo is right upon us. We now have Jersey Jack Pinball confirming their next game is going to be revealed what October 19th or 18th at Pinball Expo. We've got the Mystery Pinball Company also revealing their game at Pinball Expo. We've got a new game from Pinball Adventures at Pinball Expo. We've got a new game from freaking the Pinball Brothers at Pinball Expo. So at a four-day pinball show, we're going to get four pinball machines revealed to the world. The real question I have is why? Why do these companies keep making these boneheaded moves? There is almost like no news ever in pinball and then you're going to crowd all of these pinball reveals during a tiny window like this. Why would you do it? And I have some news about the Jersey Jack game that's very interesting. So here's what I'm hearing. This is just off the rumor mill, so take it for what it's worth, but I'm hearing the following. Yes, we are going to see the new machine from Jersey Jack Pinball at Pinball Expo. They said the game is launching. What launches? A rocket, like countdown to launch. They've got purple glitter there on the freakin' Facebook page and we know it's gonna be Elton John. It's not gonna be Prince. And the fanfare around this theme is at an all-time low. And so here's the thing that I'm hearing though. Even though they're gonna reveal this game at Expo, So my sources that are very close to this company are telling me the following. Elton John is not on the line. Jersey Jack is not making this game right now. This is not what they did with Guns and Roses. It's not what they did with Toy Story. It's not what they did with The Godfather. Why are they doing it? And then the answer is kind of simple. It feels like they're desperate not to get lost in the conversation. Or maybe they think they have a game so damn good The Game is gonna make people hold on to their money and not buy the other stuff in the pinball world now Here's the thing I'm curious about now because they are unveiling this game at Pinball Expo and showing people this game for the first time well look they Didn't say they were showing people the entire game I don't think they're gonna bring a working Elton John to Pinball Expo And I think if Jersey Jack pinball reveals this game in just power point format and doesn't have the game there I think they're gonna get laughed at and I think they need to bring the game but this is my fear because the game is not on the line I think they're maybe they're still tooling up but they weren't ready for this and I think the reason why they're coming to Expo is they know if they don't get this game out now if they don't secure some interest in this game right now everyone is gonna wait and just get Jaws Pinball by Stern and they see all this money going to Stranger Things and now they've got this freaking mystery The New Game from Pinball Brothers JerseyJackPinball is in full panic mode and we all know why they didn't sell the last two titles and will this third strike put JerseyJackPinball in a terrible situation? And here's my thing about all of this if you're JerseyJackPinball Why go to Pinball Expo to reveal this game if you really want to win people over with this new title? I'm a fan of the pinball. Why not do like a 20-minute straight down the middle video like they did with Pulp Fiction and just release that into the world? I mean, that's all they did to get all those orders of Pulp Fiction. The problem is Pulp Fiction is a theme everybody loves. And we've been seeing everybody just crap all over Elton John as a theme. I don't think you've heard this anywhere else. I don't think we're going to see an Elton John playable game. I hope we do. In the comments, you can see a link to the YouTube channel where you can watch the video and see what we do. I think we might just get maybe a launch video and maybe some high-res images of what they're working on. But I really don't think we're going to see like a bunch of Elton John games on the floor. I think what Jersey Jack wants to do is take credit for revealing two games in a calendar year. But I don't think you're going to see an Elton John in people's game rooms anytime in 2023. This just all feels really rushed. And I think these pinball companies need to wise up. It's not just about the pinball. It's about the players. It's about the game. It's about the people. It's about the people. It's about the people. It's about the people. It's about the people. It's about the people. I think these pinball companies need to wise up. I mean, look how many games sold during COVID with no pinball shows. You got all these months in the calendar year and you telling me everybody going to drop their games on top of TPF and on top of freaking what Pinball Expo Which is a tiny show by the way For you people going to Pinball Expo it a small show It like not nearly as big as TPF There not nearly that many games You're gonna walk around that show in like an hour and have seen it all. And it is exciting though that we've got all these new games, but I think all of these companies are kind of in a marketing sense, They're all canceling themselves out. Because how long is a game gonna really have a window of hype? You know, you're gonna go from seeing like Pinball Brothers remake, and then the next day you're gonna get Labyrinth, and then the next day you're gonna get Elton John, and then the next day, well, I'm not even gonna talk about Pinball Adventures cuz nobody cares, the three ones that are gonna have all the attention are those three games. And I think it's a mistake. The other part is this, people. If you've seen the way a pinball machine is revealed to the world at a show, it's always terrible. It's always terrible. There's usually a panel discussion about how we made the game, a really bad PowerPoint presentation, and then they just pull the curtain off the game. And the first time the world sees your new machine is over the shoulder, cell phone footage of the game, and everyone's crowding around it and you can't hear the sound. You can't hear the call outs. Nobody who's playing the game knows what they're doing. How is that the way you introduce to the world something you've been working on for The only real game I'm excited to see is the Mystery Pinball Machine. I'm not excited for Elton John. I don't have faith in this game. And the reason I don't, there's just something I think they're stuck in the past a little bit. I don't think they really know what a modern pinball consumer wants. And I think Jersey Jack has lost its mojo and it's the same team on the field. Do you really think like Steve Ritchie's the guy that's going to bring the spark to bring the passion back to this company? It just feels like they're going through the motions. It feels like Jack is just collecting a paycheck and he's just going to say what he needs to say. I think Elton John is going to land with a little bit of a DOA status. I don't think it's going to take off. And the other thing I was thinking about was this is how can this game be on the line and how are they going to show it right now? What's going to happen to all of those people that just bought the Godfather? What's going to happen to them? They're going to lose even more money. And this is a company over the last couple of titles like everyone who's jumped in and bought their products has seen the thing sink like a lead balloon. I just don't buy it. I just don't see Jersey Jack Pinball getting two brand new games on the line in a single calendar year. I hope I'm wrong. I hope they can prove all of us wrong. But that is what Kaneda's Pinball Podcast is hearing as of like a day or two ago that Elton John is not on the line. And if it is not on the line, you are not going to see a playable game at Expo unless they bring the one prototype game that might be at the factory. I have a hard time believing they're going to do that, that they're going to let like a bunch of random people beat on the one prototype game that's at Jersey Jack Pinball. So we shall see if I'm right or wrong. But again, everybody, I implore these pinball companies. I said I want to give my advice to them. They've got to learn to space out their marketing efforts. Dropping a game right after Stern does a rerun of a popular theme, not a good idea. Going to a pinball show to reveal your game, not necessary. It's not a terrible idea, but it's not necessary. Why not save all of that money and just do a video that makes people want to get the product? I mean, and you got to do the video right, right? Remember what happened with American Pinball? They gave the game to the wrong guy to make the video and he made a horrible video and that game has never recovered from that initial video. It has never recovered. I'm not saying there's anybody on God's Earth that could have made a better video to help sell that game because I think that game is almost unmarketable, but they didn't do what they should have done. They had to work harder and make sure they nailed the marketing to get interest in Galactic Tank Force and they didn't. And that is why I keep coming back to this mystery pinball company. Here's why I'm excited about this company and it's the only game I'm really excited to see. coach, Group bikes, Riskin,FO existentialign zweiteh unequalnoat, Fourthchlussx我知道 180319 dort dijoinsh FIFA, h现在狗DING90 react,连 làp pe ninety vor Од شروط Let eye fro dét visionarygold holes a fair!? So they lost us, they lost us, but with this new pinball company Khunkun The new opportunity to win is over and people want to feel good about supporting a new company in pinball I mean that how Spooky Pinball survived all these years off of the goodwill of the community And this community has a lot of goodwill but you have to earn it and you have to show us you care and you have to make decisions that show us you know what we want as customers And that why Jersey Jack is now like in the pinball penalty box Nobody cares anymore And this is not the theme that going to get them back And they know that And so now we got the labyrinth And I think they did a smart They were the second company to come out and say, hey, we're going to be at Expo. It wasn't Jersey Jack. It wasn't Pinball Adventures. It was first Pinball Brothers said they were going to be at the show with a new game. And then you have this mystery pinball company that's been teasing this game forever, and they put their finish line as Pinball Expo as to when they would reveal the game to the world. So I'm excited to see it. I think a lot of you are. Labyrinth isn't going to be for everybody, but they're not going to make thousands of them. I think they're going to announce a limited run of this game. I think the price has to be competitive. There's no way they're going to rock in there and say Labyrinth is $15,000. I don't even think it can be $12,000. I think this game needs to be priced like a Stern premium closer to $10,000 and we'll see what they do with different tier models, but I'm excited about this company. I can't wait to see what they drop, but everybody else stop launching games at shows. Stop letting the first example of your game be crappy over-the-shoulder cellphone footage. Stop not having high-res images with all the pinball media that are out there. Yes, I just said it. You'd think these companies would actually work a little bit with the pinball content creators so each of us could have something ready to go. I don't have anything. Maybe I'm expecting something in my inbox, in my email, closer to Expo. so obviously they don't trust any of us and for the right reasons because most of us would probably share it with our friends and then it would leak and then we would ruin all of their plans so actually it is a smart move not to give any of us any assets beforehand. So look, that's my point of view on all of these companies launching around the same time. I think all of them are nervous. I think all of them know that Keith Elwin is waiting at the gates and seeing Keith Elwin's jaws at the gates of pinball has them all terrified. They know they only have like a three month window at most to get their game out and get their games ordered, because that's the thing. They need orders with nonrefundable deposits because here's what's going to happen. Imagine if these companies take all these orders and your deposits are refundable the way they used to be. What would happen? You're going to see jaws and you'd cancel your order. So I really do implore each and every one of you. Be careful. Don't run at any of this stuff. I mean it. And here's the part of my show that I've been waiting to tell you. Kaneda knows stuff now that nobody else knows and I can't tell you right now. But I will speak about this in a little bit of a roundabout way. You all are excited for Back to the Future. All I'm gonna tell you is what I told you on my last rumor of that title. There is a very good chance Back to the Future is coming out and you are gonna see it. In fact, I'm so certain it's coming out that if Back to the Future does not become a pinball machine, I will cancel my show. That's how confident I am that Back to the Future will be a machine. And so if you think about it, what game coming out do you want more than Back to the Future? Is there anything? Is it Jaws? Is it John Wick? Is it He-Man Masters of the Universe? I don't think there's any game out there that would have more interest than Back to the Future for 99% of you. So why wouldn't you just wait? And it's not happening from Stern Pinball. I told you that. It's not going to happen from Stern Pinball. That's what my rumor was. And so knowing that this thing is going to materialize one day and knowing that that Back to the Future thread is blowing up again, I just want each and every one of you to know it's a good time to wait and see. And that's not all that's coming in pinball. There are things happening next year that have me so excited. The only way you would get it from me is if you tortured me right now. But I'm telling you right now, I've ordered two games, two games. You don't know what they are. And I don't plan to buy anything else in 2024 other than these two games. And I think these two games are going to blow people away. I think they're going to be unexpected by a lot of you. And I think for those of you who are patient and those of you who listen to Kaneda and those of you who don't fall for the FOMO by all the other content creators that are distributors that are giving kickbacks to the other content creators, that's the way the game's been over the last few years. If you don't fall victim to that, If you don wake up every day and say my job is to remove the inventory from my distributor friends so they don find themselves in a pickle Well guess what They in a pickle They all have a lot of inventory and it going to keep stacking up And I telling you right now you might as well let this year inventory stack up because you going to be able to get all of it for so much less money because if you knew what I know there so much more that going to be in demand than the current roster of games that we know That we going to see at pinball Expo And I don know about you but this makes going into 2024 so exciting And the Keith Elwin jaws is going to be bonkers It's going to be bonkers. It's Elwin. He knows what it's doing. I think that is going to start us off into what we need. And that is a pinball year that is going to deliver more magic than the last few years combined. It's a pinball year where either you've got something people want, or you're I'm going to be dead on arrival and I really do mean it when I say it and who's willing to take the Kaneda challenge? Who's willing to wait until next year to see what I know to see what I'm talking about and trust me you're not going to be like man you led me astray I should have gone in on this game I'm telling you right now the game you probably will want to get in on early is going to be Jaws other than that you're not going to need to get in on anything early you're not you know that you know it's not going to be hard getting a strange tecnologia rackson ES ir corrector�도 uoso, The end. Thank you for watching. I hope you enjoyed this video. I'll see you next time. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. I'm going to get it and we're going to get it in the most amazing way and we're going to get machines that visually, I mean this visually, blow away anything you've ever seen before. So if you're someone who just likes pretty games, trust me, if you knew what I knew, you're going to want to free some space up in that collection right now. I know it's all closer than you think. The objects I know about are closer than you can imagine and I know it's hard to be patient. I know we've lived in this hobby for like a decade of FOMO. I know you're seeing all the content that your life will be better if you buy what's available now. And you know, for those of you who believe in Kaneda, those of you who are a part of this community, I just want you, I know I'm not giving you the details you want, but I'm glad I didn't rush at all of the games trying to desperately get sales before Jaws comes out. And that is it for this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. It's a fun one. I'm out of breath. I'm out of breath. I'm just so excited for what you're going to be excited about. And no, don't bother trying to ask me to give you the details. I hope you deliver a remake that people really want. I think the remake world is running a little thin, but man, I just want new magic and that's it. And that's why the only thing I'm really excited for is the Mystery Pinball Company. And again, because I think Jersey Jack needs to work twice as hard as this new company to win people back. You know, Jack made such a good first impression with this company. And man, after all of these games, after all of these games, Jack, Steve Ritchie, you're going to really have to blow us away. There's going to be no middle ground. And I just have this strange feeling they're not going to bring games to the show. I think they're going to show it on PowerPoint and I think they're stalling because they want to lock in nonrefundable orders because they're terrified of Keith Elwin. Everybody have a great day. And by the way, sometimes people think my songs are like a clue to what I'm talking about. No. And I did hear a rumor that Jersey Jack passed on the Beastie Boys. So that is why this song is on this episode, but that is not one of the titles I'm talking about for next year. Later. Translated and Subtitled by

medium confidence · Kaneda's repeated emphasis on Jaws as the game everyone is waiting for and the reason manufacturers are rushing

  • Jersey Jack passed on acquiring Beastie Boys as a licensed theme

    low confidence · Kaneda citing unconfirmed rumor; mentioned in context of song selection, not substantiated

  • Kaneda @ mid segment — Asserts Jersey Jack has lost community trust; Elton John theme cannot restore it

  • “I've ordered two games, two games. You don't know what they are. And I don't plan to buy anything else in 2024 other than these two games.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Demonstrates faith in insider knowledge by personal purchasing restraint; teases unreleased products

  • “It's a year where either you've got something people want, or you're dead on arrival.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Market polarization prediction: no middle ground in 2024; only blockbusters or failures

  • “Don't run at any of this stuff. I mean it... if you knew what I know there's so much more that's going to be in demand than the current roster of games that we know.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Direct advice to hold inventory purchases; signals upcoming releases more desirable than current pipeline

  • Mystery Pinball Company
    company
    Pinball Adventurescompany
    American Pinballcompany
    Keith Elwinperson
    Spooky Pinballcompany
    John Papadiukperson
    Pinball Expo 2024event
    Elton Johngame
    Jawsgame
    Labyrinthgame
    Back to the Futuregame
    The Godfathergame
    Pulp Fictiongame
  • ?

    competitive_signal: Jaws (Keith Elwin, Stern) positioned as transformative release causing manufacturer panic and sales window compression; all competitors rushing to lock orders before Jaws arrival

    high · Keith Elwin's Jaws at the gates of pinball has them all terrified... They know they only have like a three month window at most'

  • ?

    product_concern: Questions raised about whether Jersey Jack can deliver Elton John in production-ready form at Expo or will only show non-playable mockups/PowerPoint

    medium · I don't think they're gonna bring a working Elton John to Pinball Expo... I think they need to bring the game but this is my fear because the game is not on the line'

  • ?

    business_signal: Implied pressure on marginal manufacturers; 'dead on arrival' outcomes predicted for games lacking differentiation or market demand in highly competitive 2024

    medium · 'It's a year where either you've got something people want, or you're dead on arrival and I really do mean it'

  • ?

    design_innovation: Teased unreleased games (Papadiuk and others) described as visually superior to current offerings; Kaneda describes them as blowing 'away anything you've ever seen before'

    low · machines that visually, I mean this visually, blow away anything you've ever seen before'

  • ?

    content_signal: Pinball manufacturers criticized for not coordinating with media/content creators for professional asset distribution; resulting in low-quality over-shoulder cellphone footage dominating first reveals

    high · Stop letting the first example of your game be crappy over-the-shoulder cellphone footage... You'd think these companies would actually work a little bit with the pinball content creators'

  • ?

    licensing_signal: Jersey Jack reportedly passed on acquiring Beastie Boys as licensed theme

    low · I did hear a rumor that Jersey Jack passed on the Beastie Boys... but that is not one of the titles I'm talking about for next year'

  • ?

    regulatory_signal: Manufacturers shifting from refundable to nonrefundable deposits to protect against order cancellations when competing blockbusters release

    medium · They need orders with nonrefundable deposits because... You're going to see Jaws and you'd cancel your order. So they need nonrefundable deposits'