Episode 653: "Do I Think Weird Al Sells Out?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·29m 12s·analyzed·Feb 28, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Jon Hey skeptical of $13.1k Multimorphic P3 Weird Al sales despite initial hype; criticizes boutique manufacturing opacity.

Summary

Jon Hey analyzes Multimorphic's newly announced Weird Al James Cameron's Avatar Limited Edition pinball machine priced at $13,100, expressing skepticism about sales volume despite predicting strong initial demand. He critiques the P3 platform's business model, pricing structure, manufacturing transparency, and customer deposit/delivery terms, while questioning whether the market is ready to commit to a modular game-swapping system versus traditional single-cabinet machines.

Key Claims

Multimorphic P3 with Weird Al James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition) costs $13,100 total
high confidence · Jon Hey directly states the price multiple times as the core focus of the episode
227 Limited Editions of Weird Al are being offered
high confidence · Jon Hey references '227 Limited Editions' multiple times throughout the episode
Jon Hey does not think all 227 Limited Editions will sell out at $13,100
high confidence · Jon Hey explicitly states: 'Do I think they're going to sell out? I don't think they're going to sell out at this price. I just don't.'
Multimorphic scales production volume based on order volume received, not pre-manufacturing stock
high confidence · Jon Hey reads directly from Multimorphic's website: 'Your build volume isn't fixed. We'll be scaling up based on order volume as described in our ordering instructions.'
Multimorphic's deposit terms allow up to 6 months past estimated ship date before customer refund eligibility
high confidence · Jon Hey reads policy: customers get 24 hours to accept estimated ship date, but if date is missed, refund is only available after 6 months have passed
Legends of Valhalla sold 500 units at $8,700 a year ago
medium confidence · Jon Hey states this as a reference point for expensive platform games selling well, though manufacturer/exact details not specified
Sam Stern announced no new games until August
medium confidence · Jon Hey mentions 'Sam Stern just announced no new games till August' as context for Weird Al's competitive timing
Jersey Jack Pinball is not bringing Toy Story or any new game to Texas Pinball Festival
medium confidence · Jon Hey states: 'Jersey Jack Pinball is not bringing Toy Story to Texas Pinball Festival' and 'Jersey Jack Pinball is not coming to Texas Pinball Festival with anything'

Notable Quotes

“$13,100. That is how much, mate, it costs if you wanna buy a Weird Al James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition) from Multimorphic right on the Multimorphic P3.”
Jon Hey @ 0:00-0:30 — Opening statement establishing the core topic and price point that frames the entire episode
“Do I think they're going to sell out? I don't think they're going to sell out at this price. I just don't. It's a lot of money.”
Jon Hey @ ~5:00 — Central prediction about sales performance despite acknowledging it will be the best-selling P3 game
“When you ask a company to be completely transparent about how many games a week they can make, I'm witnessing this community attack people for asking those BASIC questions.”
Jon Hey @ ~15:00 — Key criticism of community culture and transparency standards in boutique pinball manufacturing
“I'm just tired of this way of making pinball. I want to get to a point where a company can make the games first.”
Jon Hey @ ~17:00 — Expresses frustration with pre-order manufacturing model in boutique sector
“You are signing up to be an investor in them building up their ability to make your game. You are not buying your game.”
Jon Hey @ ~20:00 — Reframes the customer relationship with boutique manufacturers as investor/scaling partnership rather than purchase
“These fans almost become like cultists. They're like members of a cult. I'm a fan of the Multimorphic P3 fans.”
Jon Hey @ ~26:00 — Commentary on passionate community defense of boutique platforms and criticism of groupthink
“I don't have to support everyone's dream. I don't have to support everybody's passion.”
Jon Hey @ ~30:00 — Statement defending critical analysis vs. unconditional support ethic in hobby community
“You have to look at it more like a video game console and less like a stand-alone pinball machine.”

Entities

Jon HeypersonJerry LanouettepersonMultimorphiccompanyWeird Al YankovicpersonJames Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition)productStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Chicago Gaming Companycompany

Signals

?
announcement: Multimorphic officially announced Weird Al James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition) pinball game at $13,100 for P3 platform with 227 Limited Edition units; orders opened at 10 AM EST with first-come-first-serve sales model
high · Jon Hey describes the announcement and order opening timing in real-time; references order banks opening at 10 AM Eastern Standard Time with direct email sales to sales@multimorphic.com
?
product_strategy: Multimorphic positioned Weird Al as breakthrough licensed IP for P3 platform intended to drive adoption; base P3 machine $8,300 + $3,000 game kit + $1,800 Avatar variant kit = $13,100 total; strategy to justify premium pricing through licensing appeal
high · Jon Hey explicitly analyzes pricing tiers and states: 'this will be the best-selling game in the history of his Multimorphic P3. It will.'
?
business_signal: Multimorphic's manufacturing volume scales dynamically based on order volume received rather than pre-manufactured stock; no fixed build targets announced; Jon Hey criticizes lack of transparency compared to Spooky Pinball's 10 games/week commitment for Rick and Morty
high · Jon Hey reads directly from Multimorphic website: 'Your build volume isn't fixed. We'll be scaling up based on order volume.' Contrasts with Spooky's public commitment.
?
product_concern: Multimorphic's customer deposit policy allows up to 6 months delay past estimated ship date before refund eligibility; customers get only 24 hours to accept estimated delivery after paying $2,000 deposit; Jon Hey characterizes this as 'red flag' and 'inane' buffer window
high · Jon Hey reads policy verbatim from Multimorphic website and critiques: 'How could they be that far off on an ETA of when I should expect my game? And I get it that this is a buffer window, but this buffer window sounds inane.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.088

0:00

Hey like a surgeon Chattin' for the very first time I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I said I 13,100 dollars Let's say that again 13,100 dollars That is how much money it costs If you wanna buy a Weird Al LE from Multimorphic right on the P3 platform So let's talk about that and how well I think this game is going to sell today. Now look, we all know that pinball is getting very expensive and the multi morphic P3 platform has build itself as the greatest value proposition for pinball right when you think about what Jerry's trying to do here if you buy this platform you can swap in games and those games are going to be much cheaper then buying another game and another game and another game if you were to go to Stern are Jersey žeck or Chicago gamingzentak 다드신 glaube 좋아지 같은 turkey right because you should swap in hangs Now do I think at 13-1 they are going to sell all 227 LEs of this game. Now look a year ago I would have said you're crazy. Before I witnessed 500 Legends of Valhalla sold through at $8,700 I would have said you're crazy nobody is going to buy Legends of Valhalla for $8,700. Now 13 one though, right? This is really, really expensive. And it's also a platform that most of us have witnessed for years. Like this thing's been around for like six or seven years. And there's a reason why you don't own one. I don't own one. And a lot of people don't own one. Now you could argue that the reason none of us have bought a P three to date is there were no license themes. And you've been saying Jerry needs to get a licensed theme on this platform and that will bring him sales and he's right like this will be the best-selling day in the history of his Multimorphic P3 platform it will he's going to get orders when the order banks open up in just seven minutes 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time it is going to be you email them at sales at I'm going to be at Multimorphic.com and it's going to be first come first serve to get those LEs of weird out. Do I think they're going to sell out? I don't think they're going to sell out at this price. I just don't. It's a lot of cheddar. 13-1. And here's why I don't think it's going to sell out. It's because even though you might want to try it, even though you're curious about it, do you want to have a P3 in your home? Because if you commit to this, that means you're most likely going to start buying more and more. Swas Dimock autres network Indonesia M bombas 580. exploitation. What's your guests to right Islam is酸 balhing at Thirteen right. You are now are Now, when you think about that, how does that give you a better bang for the buck than just buying like a Stern pro? Like that is almost the price of three Stern pro machines. And that's the thing, you know, it's like, I feel like for this thing to really work for this whole system to take off and to get a user base, 8,300 bucks for the platform with no game is too much money. I'm John Papadiuk, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, and I'll see you next week.

5:04

I think that's too much money. I think Jerry needs to charge more like four to five thousand dollars for the base platform. And then each game can be what two three thousand dollars like he's charging right now. But here's the other crazy part. To get Weird Al LE you are spending three thousand dollars on the Weird Al kit and then an additional eighteen hundred bucks for the LE version on top of the three thousand. So all of a sudden now this sort of This week's topic is Pinball. Pinball is a revolutionary way to save you money in the pinball world. A single kit is $4,800 bucks. Like that's a lot of cheddar. That's a lot of cheddar. And I'm just not sure people are ready for this journey. It's a lot of money. It's a lot of commitment. To me this whole platform comes down to this. This whole thing is a huge marketing risk. And the reason why is this. All Stern has to do is make a game based on a theme that is a little bit different. And the reason why is this. All Stern has to do is make a game based on a theme that is a little bit different. This week's topic is make a game based on a theme people like, put it on the line and sell thousands of those, right? And the market has shown us that people are a-okay having just one game inside each cabinet. If people wanted multiple games inside each cabinet, the market would say so, but the market has not. So, if you buy a Stern machine and then you go to sell your Stern machine, all you have to worry about is that single machine you bought. Beatbox, WSZPL, Let's say you buy this platform with Weird Al, and then go buy a heist, and let's say you go buy like Cosmic Cart Racing. Let's say you buy all these things. Then what do you do? You've got to find someone who wants to buy all 3 because there's not enough of a user base to trade the games. And that's all it comes down to. It is a completely different approach to pinball. And I get what Jerry's going for, but it's a lot of money. The market will dictate whether or not This week guest scoring Will he sell all 227 of those LEDs Look and if you just want to buy the regular weird out on a P3 you still at plus shipping plus tax So you around like to get a multi morphic P3 And that a lot of money And we going to see right right now it is 10am Right now the order banks have opened up So I wonder how many emails are flooding in to Jerry inbox right now to buy these games Timewilltell. I just don't think there's going to be that many people who are that eager to spend this much money on a platform that hasn't really convinced people this is the future of pinball and this is the way to go. Now for people out there, if you want variety, this is absolutely a great variety machine to put into your lineup. Absolutely. This thing is completely different than every other pinball machine you would have in your lineup. And so if I had like 50 games or 30 games or 20 games and I just wanted something different in my lineup to spruce it up, absolutely I would understand why pinball people who have a lot of games would look at this and just say why not? Like what the heck? Like why not? Why don't I just buy one? You know, variety is the spice of life. It'll change up what I have in my lineup and every once in a while I'll swap out the kits and have a new game in my game room. Like why not, right? I understand that, but that's what feels like oxymoronic about this platform. It doesn't feel like it's for the person who has a ton of room, because if you have a ton of room, then you don't care that each cabinet is dedicated for one game and one game only. This feels like a platform for someone like me who only has room for like one or two games in their home. And that is why I would do this because I don't have room for 15 games or 10 games. And so I would go this route. I'm always like where do you store these things right I just where do you store the modular kits where do you store the artwork like you have to store the topper like you have to store everything when you switch the game over and to me that just seems like more of a headache than just buying one game where everything is included and when I want to get rid of that game I get rid of everything I don't have to put stuff under the bed in the closet like roll up the artwork I don't even know how all that's supposed to work or where it's supposed to go but the market will tell us I'm not sure if I can get a lot of this right now. Like it is three minutes into the order banks and I wonder how many emails are flooding in. The other big question mark around this entire thing, and I'm on the P3 website right now, and the big question mark for me is this. I am still not clear how many games they can make a week, how many games they can make a month. And to me this is the most important conversation to have. Here's the thing with pinball. If you're not Stern Pinball or you're not Jersey Jack or you're not Chicago Gaming Company, right? If you're outside of those three companies and I might put spooky into that. If you're outside of those companies that have delivered pinball at volume to customers and I mean, you know, they've made over a thousand of each game. If you're not a company that has proven that you can make a thousand or more games a year, I put you into a boutique category. And the issue with boutique pinball is simply this. You just don't know what you're going to get. You don't know when you're going to get your game. You don't know how many games a week they can make. You don't know very much. But here's my issue with pinball lately. When you ask a company to be completely transparent about how many games a week they can make, I'm witnessing this community attack people for asking those basic questions. The biggest danger in this hobby is if we act like asking a simple question How many games can you make? People come at you with pitchforks that you're not supporting pinball. That you're attacking these pinball companies simply because you want to know as a potential buyer how many games can you make a week? When is production going to start? What does your manufacturing look like? How many employees do you have? All of this information when you think about it. And I asked Jerry on my Facebook page, how many games a week can you make? I'm going to stop right there. Why is this always the default from these boutique companies? I'm asking a question of you in front of a community, right? My Canadian community. Why do I have to email you directly to get an answer? We're seeing this right now with Haggis, right? It's like Damien will deal with you directly, but he won't put out an official statement. He then wrote our build volume isn't fixed. We'll be scaling up based on order volume as described in our ordering instructions will You'll provide an estimated shipdate and an opportunity to cancel for refund if somebody doesn't like the answer. No risk, as much transparency as possible. Alright, so I like that answer from Jerry, like, you know, your whole thing is refundable. But let's look at the P3 store when I go to order a Weird Al LE. You have the P3 machine, then you have the game kit for $3,000, you have the LE kit for $1,800. Now here's the part that I want to read because what Jerry is basically saying is this we're going to scale up based upon how many orders we get and I get it. There are small companies so they're going to see how many orders they get and that will dictate you know how many employees do we need to hire how much of this do we need to order and so just know this right just know that this is not me attacking them but this is just for everybody out there when you are buying from a boutique and you are giving them your money today. Your game is not on the line. I bet your parts have not been ordered. And so this is gonna be a long wait and I'm just gonna say this right now. I'm just tired of this way of making pinball. I want to get to a point where a company can make the games first. Like I firmly believe this if Jerry made

13:47

227 Weird Al games and put them in boxes and said hey 13-1 you can have them tomorrow. These games aren't on the line. I bet the factory's not running overtime building cabinets right now. Think about it like this. Here is another example of a company that is taking orders and have you seen manufacturing so far? Have you seen how many employees they have? Here's the one thing we're seeing again. A company will take your money, you can order a product, and you have no idea what the credit is. This week topic is what is the current state of the factory is You have no idea how many people are working there You have no idea how fast they can make games You have no idea on any of this Now you might be able to email Jerry directly and get that information But what I would like to see from more of these boutique companies is what Spooky Pinball did When Spooky Pinball took money for Rick and Morty they were upfront with everybody We can build 10 games a week If you order a Rick and Morty you will have your game within 18 months That what they said from We will be able to build all of these games within an 18 month window. We know our manufacturing capability. We know how many games we need to make and that is the time frame. What Jerry is saying here is we don't really know. We can scale volume up and down. I know there's a multi morphic factory somewhere in Texas, but every time I'm seeing pictures of it, I don't really see like a lot of people there. Nothing gives you confidence like these empty factories, but he doesn't really know. And Add flashback έ shroud좀 cleveză beťνģăăţăţăţăţăţăţăţăţaţăţăţăţăţăţăţăţţăţţaţţäţţăţţăţţăţţ tirarăţţţţagit I'm not criticizing this company for misleading people because I don't think they are misleading people. I think they're being very transparent on what they're going to do. Now, as a buyer, if I were you, I would just be aware of the ride you are getting on because the other part is this. Let me read what happens to you if you put down a deposit today on a Weird Al. And this is right from their website. We will reply to all sales requests in the order received with an invoice for a $2,000 deposit. No other payment will be due until your order enters production. Now I always have an issue with that too. Like enters production. What does that mean? You know what I'm saying? Like only in the world of pinball do two words still seem very ambiguous. Like I don't know what entering production means because you know why we don't know what Thanks for watching. If you liked this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to our channel so you can not only get the latest videos from us, but also get the latest updates from us. I will see you guys in the next one. Take care. Bye. Jamie const mic, for Jamie tiftu, with the You will then have 24 hours to pay the deposit. Otherwise your order will be automatically canceled. Okay, that makes sense, right? We don't want scalpers. We don't want flippers. We don't want people misleading us. We need to know how many orders we have. And if you don't commit your order is canceled. That makes total sense. Here's where it gets really interesting. After receiving your deposit, we will provide you with an estimated ship date, you will then have an additional 24 hours to cancel your order and have your order I'm going to give you a ship date of when you can expect your game. And if you agree to that, so let's say Jerry says to me, Chris, I'm going to have my game by July 4th. July 4th comes and goes. No game. I can't get a refund in August. I can't get a refund in September. I can't get a refund in October. I can't get a refund in November. I can't get a refund in December. If he misses that July date, I can't get a refund until January of The next year, six months, he can blow by the ETA on when the game should be in my home. How could they be that far off on an ETA of when I should expect my game? And I get it that this is a buffer window, but this buffer window sounds inane. It sounds ridiculous. Six months and my money is locked in. I have huge issues with this simply because like this is a red flag to me. It's a red flag because as a company, how can you be this far off on your own ability to deliver on a date? Like, how can you be? And so if you give them this much of a window, just know that it's on you now as the buyer, like he's telling all of us, this is their policy. I don't like it, but it is transparent and it is clear what he's saying. I just want everyone to be aware when you go in on these boutique company games, this is what you're signing up for. You are signing up to be an investor in them building up their ability to make your game. You are not buying your game. You are not buying your parts. You are giving them money to scale up their operations. And in the history of pinball, we know that this is dicey. Now, I wouldn't worry so much because Jerry has other money I'm John Papadiuk, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, and translite If you want a weird Al, if you want this revolutionary new pinball system that's going to be limitless fun for everyone in the family for countless thousands of years, if you want this and you want to agree to these terms and conditions, then you really have to want it. Like this goes beyond just being a fan of weird Al. Like this isn't like buying weird Al from Stern, like you're going to have it in your house in a few weeks. You're not going to have it in your house for a few months. I'm John Papadiuk, Black Water Podcast, Twippies Awards, and I'll see you next week.

21:43

I purchased a You can always check out these companies You have to love these companies You have to want to support them You have to want to go on a little bit of a roller coaster ride in which you not sure when you're gonna be able to get off the ride. And that is why when you see the fans of these boutique companies, and it's not just these guys. It's like the Haggis fans, the P3 fans, the spooky fans, these fans almost become like cultists. They're like members of a cult. I'm a fan of the P3 fans. I didn't even know there were P3 fans. But man, they're vicious. They will defend this company to no end as if all of this sounds kosher. And I'm just here to tell you on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast that I think everyone needs to look at this stuff with a little bit more balance. You know, do I think a Weird Al fan who's not into pinball is even going to give this game the time of day? Absolutely not. And here's why. If you're a fan of Weird Al and his music and his concerts and his music videos, think about it. Put yourself in their shoes. You're able to enjoy everything Weird Al does for almost no money, right? The only time you have to spend money is when you go to a concert. And how much is a Weird Al concert ticket, right? The most Orday Heller, Kal vender who pays the principal of the 힘уш robots as the そればりした어요 Who got the fonoistoわよね do wh orphango citizen獴う? Who wants theρω將就�ほうや! No WeirdAl fans out there who are not pinball fanatics are even looking at this kind of price point and putting this thing in their home. There's no crossover. So you have to be a pinball fan. And then you also have to be a WeirdAl fan. And then you also have to be willing to give this P3 platform a shot. Those are a lot of stars that have to align to get volume of sales for this company. But here's the thing. I want to be able to just have a dialogue about this stuff, right? I think anytime you question these companies and you question the stuff they're saying, you're attacking pinball and you're bad for pinball and you're toxic and we got to get you out of the hobby. And no, like look, Jerry's got a company. Jerry has made up his mind on his system and how he wants to market it to people. It's not what I would have done. These aren't themes I would have put into the pinball world, but it's his dream. It's his passion. But I want to say this and I mean this when I say it. I don't have to support everyone's dream. I don't have to support everybody's passion. And I've heard people say that to me like, Kaneda, like it's really mean of you not to support this because there are passionate people behind it. When did the world turn into a place in which people have to support everything simply because the people creating it are passionate? Every single movie director is passionate about making movies. Every single I'm a musician is passionate about the music they make, but that doesn't mean I have to support it. It doesn't mean I have to cheerlead it. Now on this one and this one in particular, I'm just curious to see how this works out for Jerry. I think he's going to have his best sales date to date, but I don't know what his sales have been in the past. I have no idea what the P3 user base is. I absolutely have not seen a lot of heist unboxings. That's what I would just love to know is how How successful has this platform been? How many are out there in the world? And look, he's got some talent coming into the fold. He's got Scott Denise. He's got Matt Andrews on artwork. He's got Bowen Cairns on rules. So this company, this company's got some talented people and this game is going to be their most successful game to date. And today will be a great day for them because they're going to see more orders in one day I'm not sure if those going in, you know, want to buy a heist or want to buy Lexi Lightspeeder. You have to sort of want to commit to it all, right? When you buy an Xbox or aPlayStation or aNintendo system, you're committing to the games on that platform. And the same is true of this system, this P3 system. You have to look at it more like a video game console and less like a stand-alone pinball machine. And when you do it like that, then the software is everything. Like, does he have the games to make this worth your while? And that's just going to be a question you have to answer for yourself. I mean, Kaneda's not going to do it. Personally, I'm just devastated by the news that Jersey Jack is not bringing Toy Story to TPF. Now look, Jerry's got a great window right now to sell this game. Stern just announced no new games to August. Jersey Jack is not coming to TPF with anything, which means Weird Al will be the only new game we are playing at TPF next time. Chef mop議o ми Fleet ط liebeइ Claparía Què, Pli Acting- Install J- יש One J- wyn Emer Thank you everybody for your birthday wishes for Killian. He turned one on Saturday. He's such an amazing kid. I love him so, so much. Every time he smiles, it's like that's one pinball machine I don't need to buy because that's all I need is him to look at me and smile and I just feel so fulfilled in life. All right, everybody. Have a great day. We will hear more about how well this game sold today. It's going to be an interesting week to see how many people say they bought a system. You know, with only 227, I think there's going to be a pin side club thread in which people are going to list their numbers. So we'll see. We'll see how well this pin does today. I'm always curious to see how well each new pin sells. Everybody have a great day.