Episode 937: "Kaneda Has No Clue"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 13s·held·Apr 15, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda analyzes spring releases, JJP's unknown next title, and market saturation reducing FOMO-driven flipping.

Summary

Kaneda discusses mid-April industry dynamics: Stern's Black Knight Pro reissue, comparative analysis of Jaws and Elton John (both solid but overpriced), John Wick's imminent late-April/early-May release, speculation on Jersey Jack's mysterious next title (possibly Harry Potter-related Wizarding World game), Barrels of Fun's production capacity constraints with Labyrinth, the collapse of American Pinball brand, and shifting secondary market dynamics where premium games are no longer commanding flipping profits.

Key Claims

Stern is remaking Black Knight Pro using existing parts inventory from the original run
high confidence · Kaneda discussing Stern's manufacturing strategy and parts management
Both Jaws and Elton John are overpriced by $1,500-$3,000 depending on tier
high confidence · Kaneda's direct comparative assessment based on gameplay time on both machines
John Wick will feature music from an Anthrax band member
high confidence · Kaneda stating confirmed details about John Wick development
Barrels of Fun can manufacture 4-5 games per day (roughly 25 per week, ~1,100 annually)
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pintastic seminar data from Knapp's Arcade reporting
Jersey Jack's next game is Mark Seiden's design and players will need to 'warm up to the theme'
medium confidence · Kaneda citing unverified sources but acknowledging uncertainty about credibility
Elton John Platinum editions are sitting unsold at distributor warehouses
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of inventory and distributor stock patterns
Pulp Fiction LE is no longer commanding flipping premium; market for speculation has collapsed
high confidence · Kaneda's direct observation of secondary market attempts failing to achieve premium pricing
American Pinball as a brand is destroyed and no longer viable
high confidence · Kaneda's assessment of David Fix's stewardship and secondary market collapse of AP titles
Jaws LE is already discounting $500 off original price
high confidence · Kaneda observing secondary market pricing data

Notable Quotes

“We are waiting for John Wick. How is Jaws doing? How do you think Jaws is doing?”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Sets up comparative analysis of two major recent Stern releases and market expectations
“I think both Jaws and Elton John are really good. I wouldn't classify either of them as like a masterpiece or one of the top 10 best games of all time, but I think in modern pinball times, both of these games are really good.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Establishes measured positive assessment of both premium recent releases while tempering expectations
“Yes, my sources have been all over the place. And here's why I think my sources have been all over the place. I think people know nuggets. I think they know bits and pieces of what's happening over there, but no, I don't know anymore.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Honest admission of rumor unreliability regarding Jersey Jack's next title; establishes epistemic humility
“What I do know is this. I saw someone say like, Kaneda, you've been so wrong on this. People are going to unsubscribe and you're going to lose fans of the show. Really? Are you going to depart Kaneda's Pinball Podcast because I'm not 100% sure what's next from Jersey Jack?”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Defensive response to criticism about speculation accuracy; reflects community pressure on content creators
“I am really struggling with which machines go into my home. Here's the reason why, is that I really want Back to the Future more than everything.”
Kaneda @ late-episode — Reveals personal collecting priorities and strategy; indicates Back to the Future is expected end-of-year release
“It's the biggest joke in the entire industry. It's one of the worst pinball machines ever made. And everyone associated with green lighting that game should be shown the door. That's how I feel about American pinball.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Harsh assessment of American Pinball's Barry O's Barbecue Challenge; reflects community frustration with brand
“All pinball marketing is stale. Every company does it the same way every single time. And we never see like truly, I mean this, truly creative and innovative stuff being put into these games based on the themes they're based on.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith Elwinperson Mark Seidenperson David Fixperson Tim Sextonperson John BorgpersonSteve RichiepersonStern Pinballcompany

Signals

?
product_strategy: Stern leveraging existing parts inventory to reissue Black Knight Pro, indicating strategic use of unsold component stock rather than pure demand-driven reissue
high · Kaneda's analysis: 'Stern doesn't order just a few parts when they make a game, so they probably had a bunch of Black Knight parts on a shelf... we've got enough to make another 500 of these'
?
pricing_signal: Both Jaws and Elton John viewed as overpriced by $1,500-$3,000 across tiers; market resistance building
high · Kaneda: 'I think both of these games, if they were $3,000 less for the LE and the CE... I think a lot more of you are looking at these games'
$
market_signal: Elton John Platinum editions accumulating at distributor warehouses unsold; signals weak demand at premium pricing
high · Kaneda: 'there are a bunch of distributors that have Elton John Platinums sitting in a box at their factory... If there was demand for this game at $12,000 or $15,000, they wouldn't be sitting in a box'
?
manufacturing_signal: Barrels of Fun confirmed production rate of 4-5 games/day (~1,100 annually); establishes 8-month-to-1-year timeline for Labyrinth 1,100-unit run
high · Kaneda citing Pintastic seminar data: 'they can make four to five games a day. So let's say on a good week, you're at 25 games a week... it roughly is going to take this company eight months to a year'
?
rumor_hype: Jersey Jack's next title subject to intense speculation; Kaneda identifies himself as unreliable source but highlights theme reveal clue ('warm up to the theme') and speculates on Harry Potter/Wizarding World possibility

Transcript

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0:00

It's a new day, but it all feels old. It's a good life, that's what I'm told. But everything at all just feels the same. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Welcome everybody, happy Monday. It's Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. We're going to talk all about what's going on in the pinball world. We're at mid-April. Are we gonna get John Wick any day now? What is the next title from Jersey Jack Pinball? Can Kaneda be more off and all over the place on these rumors? Are we gonna sell any barbecue challenges? Is Dutch Pinball X gonna be able to sell Alice in Wonderland? Where is Funhaus from Andretti Padretti or whatever Padretti Gaming? Where's that damn remake? How to communicate through a Bluetooth easily, to get a better call whenever somebody calls you from another location. License Installations, Black Knight from Stern Pinball. Good news! You can go get a Black Knight Pro remade by Stern Pinball in the new factory where the quality is not as good as the old factory. But I think this move makes total sense. There's been a lot of demand for Black Knight. Well, not a lot of demand, but some demand. And that's all it takes. If there's a few hundred people that want this game and Stern's got parts lying around Because people forget this. When Black Knight first came out, it didn't sell very well. And Stern doesn't order just a few parts when they make a game, so they probably had a bunch of Black Knight parts on a shelf. They had the knight, that mechanism in the middle, and they said to themselves, alright, we've got enough to make another 500 of these, let's just do it right now. And for those of you who have played Black Knight Sword of Rage, The pro version is much better than the LE and the premium. The upper playfield does nothing for the gameplay and so I think this is a smart move. What I would have liked to have seen Stern do though is add a shaker motor, add some other elements to the pro machine, maybe some inner art blades or mirror blades inside that game. Just make it look a little bit nicer. You know, add a few more elements to this that makes someone who's buying this game Feel like they're getting a special version of this game. They re-released the Black Knight Topper a few months ago for a lot more money than it was originally. And I know some people out there like bought the topper waiting for the premium to be remade. And maybe some of those people are disappointed that they spent like 1500 bucks on a topper or $1,800, whatever it is, and now all they get is the pro version of the game. So Black Knight is back. Do most of you care? No. We're waiting for what's next from Stern Pinball. We are waiting for John Wick. How is Jaws doing? How do you think Jaws is doing? I got more time on Jaws Premium and a lot more time on Elton John. I did a nice breakdown of both machines on Facebook the other day. I will summarize it for you like this. I think both games are really good. I do. I think both Jaws and Elton John are really good I wouldn't classify either of them as like a masterpiece or one of the top 10 best games of all time, but I think in modern pinball times, both of these games are really good. I think they're both overpriced. Yes, I absolutely do. I think both of these games, if they were $3,000 less for the LE and the CE and like $2,000 or $1,500 less for a premium or a platinum, I think a lot more of you are looking at these games. And when you put them side by side, I will say this. There's a lot more to shoot at in Jaws Pinball. There just is. As much as we complain that the shark doesn't eat the ball, there's a lot of pathways in this game. And when you really jump on jaws and you see what Keith Elwin did with this game, I think it's very deceiving at first glance what's in this game. And because so much of the focus was on the lack of a shark eating a ball, I think a lot of us are not appreciating what's in this game in terms of like the different shots, all the different pathways of the ball. And yes, shots are not the new toys. Would I have liked there to have been a wow mechanical moment in Jaws Pinball? Absolutely. Is it there? No, it's not. But what this game does have is a layout that is really fun to shoot and also where this game is going to win. It's loaded with assets and they keep putting more assets into the game. Your destae rooms and corner机 성피는 특히аксим авячBAYST� الس��ейств� kamera?

5:19

잡 grandma에게 지문을 올렸습니다 간 왜냐하면 골드 크랑 I think you're going to love Elton John so damn much more. I think you're absolutely going to love this pin. I think Elton John immediately satisfies more than Jaws when you just walk up to the machine. The shots are a lot easier to hit. I will say some of those shots in Jaws are really tight, but once you figure them out, you start to enjoy the game more and more. But for a casual player, just walking up to Elton John, you're going to hit a lot more shots, you're going to have longer ball times, and because in Elton John, you sort of pick your song and you start the game, you almost feel like you've achieved something the moment you plunge the game. Where if you go up to Jaws, you're not really going to be sure what you're doing. But in Elton John, you feel like you're in it right away. So it has more immediate gratification. Now that being said I think the team over at Stern just blew everybody away by getting all of the assets from this Jaws movie and they going to keep putting more and more of it into the game Remember all of us were worried that Jaws was going to be more like a Jurassic Park an animated adventure based on the movies from Jaws But no, it's everything you want to see up on that screen. The call outs are great. The music kind of works. I didn't think it would work, but it really teleports you into that Jaws world. And there's just a lot to do in the game and a lot to explore. Now look Elton John also has deep code but here's the difference when I'm playing Jaws I have a deeper connection to what's happening with the modes and the code than I do with Elton John and if you think about it like what are you really doing in Elton John pinball like I know in Jaws you're trying to catch and kill sharks you're trying to save people you're going on a night swim you're tying knots you're doing all these things and when you play Elton John I just don't feel like you're really I'm going to play a game that's really about like, journeying through anything really translatable to somebody. Like for example, I think Elton John is all about collecting all of the different items in his wardrobe. And you just don't feel like you're doing that when you play the game. Sure, stuff is happening. Sure, they're giving you call outs and stuff is popping up on the screen, but you don't really physically and viscerally feel like you are playing as Elton John or collecting We've answered a number of questions about pinball and filmmaking changes or whether to include more on this subject but it can be said that playing pinball in a pinball sets itself as a invasion of positivo, deprivation of Chernobyl project. Whether to have the unity of being an animated pesoscape or playing a positive göre and fix All of these are really good games, both fun games to stand over. When it comes to flipper feel, I still give Stern the advantage. They still feel snappier, they feel stronger. That being said, Jersey Jack flippers on Elton John are the best to date of any Jersey Jack game to date. And my overall summary of both of these games, these are great games that are just overpriced. And that's just it. I think both of them suffer from post-COVID pricing and more people should have both of these games in their lineup because I do think they are really, really solid efforts from both Jersey Jack and from Stern. But my feeling is a few months from now, hype on both of these games will be absolutely dead. And a lot of you are just going to wait to pick one up at used pinball prices. So that being said, we've been hearing that John Wick was going to come out sometime in April. We are now in mid-April. It's now looking like it might be end of this month or early May, but it has to be right around the corner. We know Tim Sexton is working on the game. We know that an Anthrax band member is going to be providing the music for John Wick. Will John Wick have clips from the movies? Will there be a Continental? Will there be a Mustang? Will there be a dead dog? Are there going to be gold coins? The thing about pinball marketing is this. I think if you make a John Wick pinball machine, how do you make it where the owner doesn't get some gold coins from the continental to put into that game itself? It would be super cool if that was like a feature of the game. Like there was a larger coin slot that somewhere in the game you could take out of your pocket a large continental gold coin and put it into the game and that unlocks a special feature in the game. How awesome would that be? We're not going to see it because as I said on my other show, all pinball marketing is stale. Every company does it the same way every single time. And we never see like truly, I mean this, truly creative and innovative stuff being put into these games based on the themes they're based on. It just doesn't happen. You know, you think about all the things you could do with Jaws and the orca and like there's the oxygen tank in his mouth and you get one shot to send that SOB to hell and it never comes. It never comes and it will never come. You know, there was a moment I was playing Jaws and actually was shooting so quickly up the middle that I forced the ball to go into Jaws' mouth a little bit as he was going back down the playfield and then it just pops up and ball kicks it out. It wasn't like a moment, it just happened by mistake. So we're gonna see John Wick. I just don't expect John Wick to take over the pinball world. So that's happening over at Stern. After John Wick, I think we're gonna get John Borg's Metallica. Whether or not it's a remake or it's an all new Metallica game, it's going to be the first game on Spike 3. We will see what that means. Alright, let's go to Jersey Jack now. So I've been all over the map on this rumor. Is it going to be Matrix? Is David Thiel coming back? Is it not going to be Matrix? Is it going to be the Muppets? I'm here to tell you right now, ladies and gentlemen, yes, my sources have been all over the place. And here's why I think my sources have been all over the place. I think people know nuggets. I think they know bits and pieces of what's happening over there, but no, I don't know anymore. I just don't know anymore. What is next from Jersey Jack Pinball? What I can tell you for certain is this. It is Mark Seiden's game. And what I've also heard is that if we warm up to the theme, We're really gonna like this game and I heard that from someone who spoke to an employee at Jersey Jack. So what does that mean if you warm up to the theme? Now here's my last guess on this whole thing and we might not see it for a while. So I might make this guess ten times more before we get the game. But here's the thing. Why would they say that? If it was the matrix, there's no way someone would say you have to warm up to the theme. So then I feel like it not that If it was the Muppets yes that feels like a theme you have to warm up to And we know that the Muppets was part of that list years ago when there was the whistleblower at Jersey Jack who said they going to make Dialed In they going to make Willy Wonka and they also have the license for the Muppets Now everything on that whistleblower list has come true except for the Muppets But I don think it the Muppets I really don think it the Muppets Here what I think it might be I think it might be the game based on Harry Potter Now you could be saying Chris Kaneda what are you talking about What do you mean you have to warm up to this game If it Harry Potter there no way you have to warm up to it But what if it not based on the Harry Potter movies What if it based on Wizarding World And what if it a completely original Harry Potter See, once you do something like that, now you're into the realm of another potential Toy Story 4, where you're making something based on a property people love, but it's not what people want from that property. And I think that might be what that means you're gonna have to warm up to it. Because if it's not the original Harry Potter movies, and even worse, imagine if it's like Like Fantastic Beast or one of the movies that came out after the major Harry Potter films. If it's more of those Wizarding World movies, I don't know if that's going to work. So I don't know. What I do know is this. I saw someone say like, Kaneda, you've been so wrong on this. People are going to unsubscribe and you're going to lose fans of the show. Really? Are you going to depart Kaneda's Pinball Podcast because I'm not 100% sure what's next from Jersey Jack? What I am 100% sure about is Elton John is not selling. And this next game from Jersey Jack has to come out sooner than later. And the reason why I know Elton John is not selling very well, I went on Pinside and you can still go order a collector's edition easily. Not only that, this is the real problem for Jersey Jack when it comes to manufacturing. There are a bunch of distributors that have Elton John Platinums sitting in a box at their factory, like in their warehouse. And so if those games are unsold, you know what that means? It means there's no demand for the game. And how can they keep making more Elton John Platinums if distributors are sitting on them new in box? If there was demand for this game at $12,000 or $15,000, they wouldn't be sitting in a box at a distributor. And so there's going to come a point and it's only April, right? May, June by July, that there's no way they're going to be able to make more Elton John machines because nobody's going to be buying them on a distribution level. And so they're going to have to move on to the next game. And if I were Jersey Jack, I would do something smart. I would just announce we're only going to make this many Elton Johns. I would be transparent about how many total you made and say, look, after this date, if you don't order an Elton John, we are never making them again. To date, we've made this many collector's editions and this many Platinums and that will be that. Anyone who got one, we thank you for your loyalty. We know you're going to have a machine.

16:46

and I would start to make moves like that. Like start to have some swagger, J.J.P. If people want to push back against you and say your games are overpriced and I'm just going to wait until this game is on the used market, well, just push back and say it's probably not going to be on the used market because we're not going to keep making this game. Because we've got so many exciting games coming down the road that we're not going to do this. And I think they should have done this from the very beginning. I think they should have said Elton John is a beautiful game. We're making 500 CEs and 2000 Platinums and that's it forever. They need to start baking some scarcity into these Jersey Jack products. Because that's why everyone's just waiting on the sidelines. Alright, so we shall see. I fully expect to see Jersey Jack's next game by the summer. And here's the thing. I just want Jersey Jack to nail it. I feel like we get our expectations up for them all the time. And even though Elton John does nail it as far as an Elton John game goes, it doesn't nail it as far as demand and enthusiasm for the theme and the price is just pricing everybody out. All right, so talk about demand and manufacturing. Let's talk real quick about barrels of fun. So I read on Knapp's Arcade. There was a seminar. This weekend at Pintastic, Barrels of Fun was up there. And we finally got a line of sight into how many games this company is making. They've definitely had delays. And so the word on the street is that they can make four to five games a day. So let's say on a good week, you're at 25 games a week. A week, people. That's not a lot. You're making 1100 games. Now they're not going to be hitting that every week. So it roughly is going to take this company eight months to a year if they're making that many games to finish the run of Labyrinth. So it's a slow trickle. It's a very slow trickle. And as I've already showed you, you can go get a used Labyrinth with a topper for cheaper READY You get a late number in the run. So let's say you're number 800 for your labyrinth and they're making 1100 and you might have like six to eight months to wait for your game. Within three months of ordering your game, you will be able to go get a used labyrinth with low plays for less money than your new in box game is that you have to now wait many more months to get. That's always why it's hard for these boutiques to keep the demand and the hype going on a game. And as of today, the game is still not sold out. They are confident it will sell out. I'm not sure. You know, I'm really not sure. And as I said on my other show, if they picked a more universally loved theme, I think they easily sell 1100 games if they pick the theme more people want. Labyrinth is pretty niche. I get that the game is really cool We see you next time All of these things are cool it got some innovative things but it just not mass market theme And so I hoping this company on their next title makes something that more appealing to most of us. And I know most of you have not been clamoring for Labyrinth. I know most of you are not clamoring for ABBA. Doesn't it feel like ABBA has been out now for months, right? Because we knew it was ABBA for months and now it's out and now they want to take orders and I just don't think they're gonna come and now that the pinball brother guy said that if demand is there they're gonna make even more games I think that's gonna turn people off to buying one of these 800 games ABBA music is great people it's absolutely great high-energy music I just don't see the pinball experience being worth the money Especially when you look at how cheap it is to get an alien, ABBA feels severely overpriced. But hey, at least they're making games, at least they're giving you options. There's nothing wrong with that. If a company wants to make a game that's not for you, that's cool. If they want to price it at $10,000 and $11,000, that's cool. I'd rather pinball companies do stuff than not do stuff, right? I'd rather this be the case. I still have more faith in pinball brothers than I do in American pinball. I mean, I think David Fix's company is done. I think they keep uploading photos of him smiling in front of Barry O's barbecue challenge. It's the biggest joke in the entire industry. It's one of the worst pinball machines ever made. And everyone associated with green lighting that game should be shown the door. That's how I feel about American pinball. They're just not viable anymore. They're absolutely not viable. And if you go on the pin side marketplace, the problem is when you destroy a brand, like what David Fix has done to AP, he's destroyed the brand. And now that he's destroyed the brand, people don't want to collect your products. Like, go look at how cheap you can go get a Houdini now, an Oktoberfest, a freaking Legends of Valhalla. These games are all now like five to six thousand dollars. It's because nobody wants that American pinball game in their lineup. And the company's going in the wrong direction, so everyone's just gonna cut bait on anything associated with American pinball. Alright, what else is going on in pinball? Kaneda's been trying to test the markets on this Pulp Fiction LE. Nobody's buying this game over sticker if it's $2500 over sticker. Now trying to see if someone will pay $1500 over sticker for a Pulp Fiction LE. Is the market done? Are the days of flipping anything over sticker? Are they over? They might be people. I mean, I haven't seen anything like this before. I think people were able to flip some pulp fictions for a profit right when the game came out because there was so much hype. There was so much hype. But now that all of these essays are going to ship, I don't know. Like, are people going to put value on the different back box on the topper? Are people really going to want it? Maybe some people who have All of these are great, but the problem is, if you have an SE that absolutely loves it, you're going to want to trade up for an LE. The problem there is, to trade up, you've got to put your game on the market or sell it used, and you're just over-saturating the Pulp Fiction market to begin with. So yeah, we might just be at a point now where there's no money to be made. I saw a Jaws LE is now already $500 off. What's gonna do is good. It's gonna make everybody just stop speculating, stop running at FOMO, stop buying every single new game on the week it's released. It's gonna make all of us reflect more and make sure we make wise decisions. So what does that mean for Kaneda and his house that can't absorb like 15 pinball machines? At most, I'm gonna put two machines into my house. I am really struggling with which machines go into my home. Here's the reason why, is that I really want Back to the Future more than everything. I want Back to the Future more than Guns and Roses, I want it more than Batman SLE, and I don't want to be moving games in and out. So if I know that Back to the Future is coming out at the end of the year, and I'm getting ready to put pins into my home and most likely those pins have to go up and down stairs. I'm sort of okay waiting. I've got my games in storage. There's no rush. I haven't had a pinball machine in my apartment in so long. So you know, what's a few more months as I wait to the end of this year, especially with baby number two on the way coming any week now, especially because I'm buying furniture I'm your host, Jeff Teolis, and I'll see you next time.