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Episode 1214: "A Seismic Shift in Pinball is Coming Soon!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 6s·held·Apr 28, 2026
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts seismic hype shift when Transformers/Sonic launch; criticizes Pokemon code delays.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Pokemon Pinball's slow code development and incomplete state at launch, criticizing Stern's software efficiency. He predicts a major industry shift in June-July when Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog release, which he expects will cannibalize enthusiasm for current games like Beetlejuice and Winchester. He also comments on pricing, FOMO dynamics, and the competitive tier rankings of pinball manufacturers.

Key Claims

  • Pokemon Pinball is stuck on code version 0.81 with minimal progress despite being months from release

    high confidence · Kaneda directly states 'We're all in the same ship stuck on code 0.81' regarding Pokemon LE owners

  • Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog will launch in June-July and create a seismic shift in pinball enthusiasm

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'I think there's going to be a seismic shift in where all the enthusiasm and energy goes in this hobby come June, July'

  • Transformers will have more content than Godzilla and will be the most loaded Stern game since Godzilla

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'The most loaded Stern game since Godzilla. In fact, I think there's going to be more in it than Godzilla'

  • Pokemon LE starting price was $18,000-$19,000 and will hold around $14,000-$15,000 in secondary market

    medium confidence · Kaneda discussing Pokemon LE pricing and secondary market expectations

  • Sonic will have unlimited CEs with three model editions (Arcade, Tails, Knuckles/Sonic)

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'With Sonic the Hedgehog, they're going to make unlimited CEs' and 'three models probably'

  • Winchester has produced fewer than 150 units in seven months since October 2025 reveal

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'Winchester's Mystery House revealed in October of 2025... Maybe less than 150' units in seven months

  • Steve Ritchie designed Sonic and Keith Elwin designed Fallout for Stern in 2024/2025

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'the other king in pinball, the two greatest designers maybe in pinball history, Steve Ritchie, followed up by Keith Elwin'

  • Fallout by Keith Elwin is expected to 'land in the pinball world like a nuclear bomb'

    medium confidence · Kaneda quoting people at Stern: 'Fallout's going to land in the pinball world like a nuclear bomb'

  • American Pinball is bringing back Circus Voltaire but hasn't stopped operations

Notable Quotes

  • “We're all in the same ship stuck on code 0.81.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Directly describes Pokemon Pinball's stalled code development state

  • “I think there's going to be a seismic shift in where all the enthusiasm and energy goes in this hobby come June, July... based on two games that are going to come out within those two months.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Core prediction about upcoming Transformers and Sonic launches driving market shift

  • “The most loaded Stern game since Godzilla... I think there's going to be more in it than Godzilla and that is Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Expectation-setting for upcoming releases' content depth

  • “It is absolutely crazy to me that Stern Pinball with all of those people over there were still waiting so long for a single code update.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Criticism of Stern's software development efficiency

  • “It's a very unique hobby. I don't think there's any other hobby out there that releases stuff so incomplete.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Commentary on pinball's unique release-incomplete model vs. other consumer products

  • “By the time Sonic the Hedgehog is announced, Spooky Pinball won't even be through half of the Beetlejuice production.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Illustrates production speed disparity between Stern and boutique manufacturers

  • “Within two to three months, Stern has made every single LE and then probably a thousand or two pros and premiums in just the same amount of time.”

    Kaneda @ mid-episode — Demonstrates Stern's production capacity advantage

  • “I think Elwin and the entire team... I think they're going to come with something super special... it's going to pop and it's going to pop big.”

    Kaneda @ late-episode — Optimistic prediction for Keith Elwin's upcoming Fallout despite King Kong's underperformance

Entities

KanedapersonPokemon PinballgameTransformersgameSonic the HedgehoggameFalloutgameBeetlejuicegameWinchester's Mystery House

Signals

  • ?

    product_concern: Pokemon Pinball stuck on code 0.81 months after launch; minimal content progression despite full mechanical release

    high · Kaneda: 'We're all in the same ship stuck on code 0.81... day one of Pokemon is the same as like day 60. Nothing else has gone in.'

  • ?

    hype_cycle: Hype and enthusiasm moving away from Beetlejuice despite early-year prominence; natural community pattern of FOMO-driven chase for newest releases

    high · Kaneda: 'The hype and the energy has moved away from Beetlejuice... it's natural for it to move on because we get excited by the shiny new thing'

  • ?

    product_launch: Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog predicted to launch June-July 2024; both expected to be heavily loaded with content and game-changing releases

    high · Kaneda: 'I think there's going to be a seismic shift in where all the enthusiasm and energy goes in this hobby come June, July... based on two games'

  • $

    market_signal: Pokemon LE pricing expectations: started at $18-19k, expected to hold $14-15k; contrast to other Stern LEs dropping to $10k within months

    medium · Kaneda: 'the starting price for Pokemon LE was like $18,000 to $19,000... I think this game is going to hold around $14,000 to $15,000'

  • ?

    manufacturing_signal: Stark disparity in production speed: Stern produces all LE + 1-2k Pro/Premium in 2-3 months; Spooky produced <150 Winchester units in 7 months

    high · Kaneda: 'Within two to three months, Stern has made every single LE... Winchester... Maybe less than 150' in seven months

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.060

0:00
A couple years ago I would have cared, given up what it means to be alone. Sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on. Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcaster wishing Retro Ralph a very happy belated birthday. I believe it was yesterday he was doing pinball content, talking about goonies. This is how we do it in the world of pinball content creation. There are no days off. You know this? Like when you're doing this and when you're making pinball content, there is never a day off. And for you fans out there, it's the same way. How many days go by a year in which you don't think about pinball for maybe just a few minutes a day? It's moved in, right? Talk about living rent-free in our heads. This damn hobby lives rent-free in our heads. And I've always said it. It's hard doing pinball content because there's only real news about eight days out of the day. Out of the year, do you actually get a new pinball machine? The rest of the year is us talking about speculating and wondering what's around the corner or talking about what's already happened in the past. Now, speaking about the past, I am every day that goes by, I am turning on Pokemon less and less. I've seen what the game has to offer. I've caught the same damn Pokemon over and over and over again. I can't go look at the ones I've caught. I can't share the ones I've caught on Insider Connected. The game has literally, in my mind, hit a wall. And until we get past that wall, playing it right now isn't really that much fun. And now I know what some of you have suffered through in the past. See, here's the issue. If I had bought a Stern LE with code this incomplete this early on and three months go by, if it wasn't Pokemon, I would have taken a huge, significant financial loss as of today. Because when you spend like $13,000 two months ago and the game comes out and it's not even close to being complete and then the word on the street is that the game needs a very long time before it's going to be finished, all the enthusiasm starts to move away from the game. There's really just not even enough for people to talk about, for people to geek out over. You get over the shots, you enjoy the shots. This is my thing about Pokemon. I'm enjoying what's there. But after you sort of like collect the four Pokemon that are in it and you battle Charizard, there is really not much else to do right now. It is very frustrating if you ask me because now I know what you guys feel like that went in all in $13,000 on an LE and then just three months later you start to see them trading for 10 grand. Now, the only silver lining in owning a Pokemon LE is it's not going to do that because the starting price for Pokemon LE was like $18,000 to $19,000. And I think this game is going to hold around $14,000 to $15,000. I don't think anyone's going to lose money, but that's not even what I care about because I'm not selling this game. I want to keep this game and have a very, very rewarding experience for myself and my family with Pokemon. And look, it is coming, but it does beg the question, why is it taking so damn long to get code into a game in which there's barely any real asset development on the part of Stern and the coding team? All of these clips, almost everything happening on the screen is coming from the show, from the Pokemon company. They are arranging other assets. It's not like King Kong where they had to develop every single asset in King Kong. And even then so, I think there was even more in King Kong than there is on day one of Pokemon. And look, day one of Pokemon is the same as like day 60. Nothing else has gone in. We're all in the same ship stuck on code 0.81. We also heard that the topper was going to come out in April Well it almost the end of April Are we going to get the topper this Friday I don know Are they waiting for the topper to then drop new code with the topper Maybe But here the big but In the world of pinball everybody in the dark Nobody knows Do you have a date in which the new code update is going to come out for Pokemon Nope They just going to spring it on you You know, I can't even imagine when I think about the pain some of you guys have had to endure because you went in on these LEs. The code wasn't complete. It was waiting licensure approval. And then by the time the code matured, this is the hardest part for a lot of you guys. By the time the game got good, you just lost so much money and you could have bought the same game if you just waited. But Pokemon is an outlier. I do not think you're going to see Pokemon LEs selling for less than $13,000 this year. Now, a year from now, a lot of bets are off. I do think what is going to happen this year is the following. I think there's going to be a seismic shift in where all the enthusiasm and energy goes in this hobby come June, July. Remember those two months, June and July. We are going to see a seismic shift in where everybody's enthusiasm goes, where everybody's energy goes, and it is going to be based on two games that are going to come out within those two months. And I think these two games are really going to wow everybody. I think one of them is going to be the game of the year and I think one of them is going to be what Stern has been working on for over two years. The most loaded Stern game since Godzilla. In fact, I think there's going to be more in it than Godzilla and that is Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog. Trust me when I say this. It is April. It is going to be May next month. Just two months from now, we are going to see this seismic shift. I think the hype and the energy has moved away from Beetlejuice. It was huge, right, at the beginning of the year. But here's the thing with all these games, Beetlejuice, Winchester, all of these games, the one thing that they do suffer from is simply the slow production schedule. There is only so long that a movie can be in the theaters before the hype moves on. And in the world of pinball, what really makes it difficult is simply you never quite know when the game is done. Is it done this year? Is it going to be done in two years? And after a while, you feel like you've seen stuff so many times where you lose interest. It's right. Remember when you first saw the Day-O mode? Amazing, right? A pinball moment of magic and you can't wait to get it. But how many times between you placing your order and you getting your game have you seen that Day-O mode? People forget the reason why Pirates of the Caribbean, nobody wanted it when it finally came out, Is everybody saw the streams for like a year before they got a chance to buy it. And by then people didn't want it. And look, that's the thing about Pinball. It's a very unique hobby. I don't think there's any other hobby out there that releases stuff so incomplete. When I just preordered my Neo Geo, that new Neo Geo coming out, guess what? It comes out in November. But when it comes out in November, every single game that was made years ago is going to work on day one. I'm not going to like buy something and then slowly be able to see its potential. And that is the pinball journey. And it does beg the question, should some of these companies sort of figure out a way to make more efficiencies happen, especially in the area of software? It is absolutely crazy to me that Stern Pinball with all of those people over there were still waiting so long for a single code update. I know they always shift the blame to the license holder. And yeah, that's the price you pay for the bigger IPs. They're going to be more protective. They want to make sure what goes out with their property is done right. That's why I think this is going to be crazy. I think come June, we're going to see Transformers with way more in the code than we will have in the code of Pokemon. And what will that do to the Pokemon hype? And this is why it's going to get interesting because in the world of Stern, it's like their own games can cannibalize their own games. Because once something new comes out if it done better if it has more in it if it has more pinball moments of magic yeah a lot of the pinball enthusiasts are going to grow a little tired of waiting on Pokemon And we all know that about 90 of Pokemon Pinball is still being bought by pinball enthusiasts not Pokemon fans pinball enthusiasts And so you have to keep those people happy. It is like if I were to give like a Venn diagram of what's the most important thing to making a masterpiece game, first and foremost, you have to make a game that pinball enthusiasts enjoy. And for those people to get hooked, it has to shoot really well. And Pokemon does shoot really well, albeit it's a little bit simple in the amount of shots, but it's very kinetically satisfying. I don't think you can say you love Pinball and not enjoy the shots in Pokemon. We just want more. And so, yeah, I'm a little bit worried that by the time Pokemon gets more, I'm going to be banging on Transformers. I'm going to be banging on Brett Atmos' door to get an early build of Sonic the Hedgehog. This stuff is coming. And the other thing that's going to happen, and this is the scary part about like, you know, people buying all these new games is when the newer stuff comes out and it's like banger and it's good and everybody wants it. I think we're going to see a lot of the older and I don't mean like years ago, I mean, just like recent titles. A lot of the enthusiasm to get it is going to move towards the new stuff. So by the time Sonic the Hedgehog is announced, Spooky Pinball won't even be through half of the Beetlejuice production. And then this is going to create an interesting thing where like even dudes with Beetlejuice spots might look over at that game and be like, well, wait a minute. I can maybe get this game sooner. This game is even better. And this game is the hot game right now. See, that's the thing about FOMO. That's the thing about FOMO and waiting. These boutique companies are very successful at creating that instant FOMO sellout. And then the wait begins. Remember, when they sold Beetlejuice out, not a single Beetlejuice was on the line for like at least two to three months. Within two to three months, Stern has made every single LE and then probably a thousand or two pros and premiums in just the same amount of time. And you know, you got Winchester's Mystery House revealed in October of 2025. People forget this, October of 2025. How many have they made in seven months? Maybe less than 150. By the time they even hit 250 Winchesters, there's going to be Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog banging on everybody's door to come check them out over Winchester, over Beetlejuice. This is why it's fun. This is why it's fun. And this is why it's a buyer's market. You know how we are. We're very fickle. We move on to the next thing that's around the corner. And here's what's funny is like once Transformers and Sonic is out, and I think they're both going to be great games, then everybody's going to be like, you know what's next? The other king in pinball, the two greatest designers maybe in pinball history, Steve Ritchie, followed up by Keith Elwin. Is it not a great time to be alive in pinball that we get brand new games from Steve Ritchie and Keith Elwin in the same year? Now, obviously, Sonic is a better theme for pinball than Fallout, but I'm also hearing from people over at Stern that Fallout's going to land in the pinball world like a nuclear bomb, people. It's coming, man. And I think Elwin, man, after King Kong being sort of a flop, I think Elwin and the entire team that he works on these games with, I think they're going to come with something super special. We know Stern gives Elwin and his team more bandwidth to put more in his games. And I think it's going to pop and it's going to pop big. And it's just going to get hard for a lot of us to figure out where do we make all this extra money because these things ain't cheap. This ain't cheap, baby. Like a lot of us still have that muscle memory where you could go get three pinball machines for 20 grand. Now you want three pinball machines of the highest trim and you're at forty five thousand dollars. Yeah, we didn't have a recession. We just have the worst inflation over the last decade. So it's really going to test a lot of people's patience. The good news is with Sonic the Hedgehog, they're going to make unlimited CEs. So there really no FOMO there whatsoever It just if you want to get one early then you move early but you don need to And they going to have three models probably the same deal with Potter an arcade edition a Tails edition and a Knuckles or a Sonic edition It going to happen It going to happen And it going to be glorious Transformers I think is going to be awesome And that just Stern and JJP people What about everybody else What about everybody else There rumors that Barrels might even be announcing their next game sometime this year Is it He There also like American Pinball People forget American Pinball They're going to bring back Circus Voltaire, but then what? They're not stopping American Pinball. I saw someone listed out where they think pinball companies fall in terms of tier one, tier two, tier three. Tier one was JJP, Stern, and Spooky, and maybe CGC. I don't know, man. I don't know. Do we put Spooky up there? Yeah, maybe. Possibly. I think so. I forget what was in tier two. Maybe tier two is CGC, like Pinball Brothers. Maybe stuff like Pedretti. But tier three, man, was Hexa and American Pinball. It's like, damn, bro. I sent that to Melvin. I'm like, this is what you should share with this company that we're being considered on the same playing field as Hexa Pinball and the three Musketeers. That game's being marched around the pinball sort of show circuit right now. I don't know, man. I just don't know what makes you wake up and want that. With all of the great pinball in the world, it's hard to wake up and want what looks like just this AI generated sort of like middle of the road game. It just is like, I don't know, man, there's just so much good pinball. And then there's so much good pinball that's available for a great price now because so much more new good pinball keeps coming out. So we're about to see that seismic shift. And until we get there, it's going to be a little bit of a lull. So we're going to do the Beetlejuice drawing this Saturday. I don't know how I'm going to do it. Brenda's away. The kids are going to be here and we're doing a live drawing at 11. I'm really happy to give five of you an opportunity to buy Beetlejuice. I may have waited too long for the hype, right? If I had done this right away, there might be more. But there was a lot of people that submitted a chance to win, which goes to show me that there was still a lot of people that wanted a Beetlejuice that got locked out. I mean, they didn't make that many and a lot more people wanted it and still do want Beetlejuice than got it. Also, I just want to say I don't think losing the hype means that Beetlejuice is now a bad game. No, no one's still hyped about Godzilla. It's still the best game of all time, maybe, right? Nobody's hyped about another medieval madness. It's still one of the greatest pinball machines of all time. Just because the hype from the community moves on, and it's natural for it to move on because we get excited by the shiny new thing. Just because the hype moves on doesn't mean the game gets worse. It's important to remember that, that a great game is always a great game. Time does not change that. Not in pinball because pinball is analog. All pinball is old. It's an old kind of toy. It will never be a digital item. It is an analog toy. So any great layout remains a great layout. Any great pinball toy remains a great pinball toy. Any great pinball moment in the game remains that. Any great light show remains that. Any great art package remains that. Okay, so just remember that. I still think Beetlejuice is a masterpiece. It's just going through a little bit of a lull where like a lot of people are still waiting and our interest is starting to drift towards other things. But it doesn't take away from what they created. The same will happen with Goonies. No, they should not make more than 999. That is the best number for them to do because, again, you don't want people to wait more than a year. You don't want to be like Turner. In 2029, we just changed a few of the spinner sounds to Yukon Yeti, man. Nobody's going to care in four months about Yukon Yeti, let alone waiting two years to get it. Oh, man, Kaneda, what are you saying? You can't say that. Happy birthday, Retro Ralph. Kaneda out.

medium confidence · Kaneda: 'They're going to bring back Circus Voltaire, but then what? They're not stopping American Pinball'

  • Hype and energy has moved away from Beetlejuice despite its early-year prominence

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'The hype and the energy has moved away from Beetlejuice. It was huge, right, at the beginning of the year'

  • “Just because the hype from the community moves on... Just because the hype moves on doesn't mean the game gets worse.”

    Kaneda @ end-episode — Philosophical statement defending Beetlejuice's quality despite waning enthusiasm

  • “There's rumors that Barrels might even be announcing their next game sometime this year.”

    Kaneda @ late-episode — Rumor about Barrels of Fun's pipeline beyond current visibility

  • game
    Godzillagame
    Medieval Madnessgame
    Stern Pinballcompany
    Spooky Pinballcompany
    Jersey Jack Pinballcompany
    Chicago Gaming Companycompany
    American Pinballcompany
    Pinball Brotherscompany
    Barrels of Funcompany
    Steve Ritchieperson
    Keith Elwinperson
    Retro Ralphperson
    Brendaperson
    Melvinperson
    Brett Atmosperson
    Hexa Pinballcompany
    Circus Voltairegame
    King Konggame
  • ?

    design_philosophy: Licensed IP creates slower code approval cycles; Stern blamed for waiting on licensors; Pokemon and Transformers both affected but Transformers expected to launch more complete

    high · Kaneda: 'I know they always shift the blame to the license holder... That's why I think this is going to be crazy'

  • ?

    competitive_signal: New Stern releases (Transformers/Sonic/Fallout) expected to cannibalize enthusiasm for recent boutique games (Beetlejuice/Winchester) due to content depth and manufacturing speed

    high · Kaneda: 'their own games can cannibalize their own games... a lot of the pinball enthusiasts are going to grow a little tired of waiting on Pokemon'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Community-sourced tier ranking places Tier 1 (JJP, Stern, Spooky, maybe CGC); Tier 2 (CGC?, Pinball Brothers, Pedretti); Tier 3 (Hexa, American Pinball); Kaneda critical of low placement

    medium · Kaneda referencing tier rankings: 'Tier one was JJP, Stern, and Spooky... Tier two is CGC, like Pinball Brothers... tier three, man, was Hexa and American Pinball'

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Rumors that Barrels of Fun may announce next game sometime in 2024-2025; American Pinball continuing beyond Circus Voltaire reissue

    low · Kaneda: 'There rumors that Barrels might even be announcing their next game sometime this year'

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Keith Elwin expected to deliver strong game with Fallout after King Kong underperformance; confidence in Stern's support and expanded bandwidth for his team

    medium · Kaneda: 'after King Kong being sort of a flop, I think Elwin... they're going to come with something super special'

  • $

    market_signal: Pinball pricing surge: three new LE machines now cost ~$45k (vs. $20k for three older machines); inflation impact on buyer accessibility

    high · Kaneda: 'you could go get three pinball machines for 20 grand. Now you want three pinball machines of the highest trim and you're at forty five thousand dollars'

  • ?

    product_launch: Sonic the Hedgehog planned with unlimited CEs (no FOMO) and three model editions (Arcade, Tails, Knuckles/Sonic); different strategy from limited boutique releases

    medium · Kaneda: 'With Sonic the Hedgehog, they're going to make unlimited CEs... three models probably... the same deal with Potter'

  • 19:41
    Lying, creep on the open I would have came, I would have came Yeah.