Episode 1214: "A Seismic Shift in Pinball is Coming Soon!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 6s·analyzed·Apr 28, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts seismic enthusiasm shift in June-July with Transformers and Sonic launches while criticizing Pokemon's slow code development.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Pokemon incomplete code state three months post-launch and predicts a major shift in community enthusiasm in June-July when Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog release, positioning them as potential game-of-the-year contenders. He warns that new Stern releases could cannibalize enthusiasm for existing titles like Pokemon and Beetlejuice, and reflects on the broader challenge of incomplete software at launch in the pinball industry. He also comments on manufacturer tiering and American Pinball reputation struggles.

Key Claims

Pokemon Pinball LE has been on code version 0.81 for approximately 60+ days with no new code updates released
high confidence · Kaneda speaking directly about his Pokémon (Premium/LE) ownership and current game state
Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog will both release in June-July 2025, causing a seismic shift in community enthusiasm away from current titles
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on insider information; specific timeframe given (June, July)
Transformers is 'the most loaded Stern game since Godzilla' with more content than Godzilla, developed over two+ years
medium confidence · Kaneda's characterization based on claimed insider knowledge at Stern
Pokémon (Premium/LE) starting price was $18,000-$19,000 and will hold value around $14,000-$15,000, unlike other recent Stern LEs
medium confidence · Kaneda discussing secondary market valuations based on his own Pokémon (Premium/LE) experience
Spooky has produced fewer than 150 Winchester machines in seven months since October 2025 reveal
high confidence · Kaneda citing production timeline data comparing Spooky vs. Stern manufacturing speed
Keith Elwin is expected to 'land in the pinball world like a nuclear bomb' after King Kong was 'sort of a flop'
medium confidence · Kaneda paraphrasing feedback 'from people over at Stern' about Fallout expectations and characterizing King Kong performance
Sonic the Hedgehog will have unlimited CE production with no FOMO and three model variants (Tails, Knuckles, Sonic editions)
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction/insight about Sonic production strategy and variant models
American Pinball is planning a Cirqus Voltaire remake but its tier-three industry ranking alongside Hexa Pinball reflects reputation challenges
low confidence · Kaneda referencing industry tier rankings he saw and commentary on American Pinball standing

Notable Quotes

“We are going to see a seismic shift in where everybody's enthusiasm goes, where everybody's energy goes, and it is going to be based on two games that are going to come out within those two months.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Core prediction about June-July market shift; the framing device for the entire episode's main thesis
“I think Transformers with way more in the code than we will have in the code of Pokemon. And what will that do to the Pokemon hype?”
Kaneda @ N/A — Directly contrasts upcoming Stern releases and warns of cannibalization effect within Stern's own portfolio
“It is absolutely crazy to me that Stern Pinball with all of those people over there were still waiting so long for a single code update.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Criticism of Stern's software development efficiency, attributed partly to licensing constraints
“About 90 of Pokemon Pinball is still being bought by pinball enthusiasts not Pokemon fans pinball enthusiasts.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Analysis of Pokemon's market positioning and vulnerability to enthusiast FOMO shifts
“Just because the hype moves on doesn't mean the game gets worse. It's important to remember that, that a great game is always a great game.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Philosophical reflection on hype cycles vs. intrinsic game quality; defense of Beetlejuice despite enthusiasm decline
“In the world of pinball, it's a very unique hobby. I don't think there's any other hobby out there that releases stuff so incomplete.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Broader industry critique of incomplete software launches as endemic to pinball manufacturing
“It is like if I were to give like a Venn diagram of what's the most important thing to making a masterpiece game, first and foremost, you have to make a game that pinball enthusiasts enjoy.”
Kaneda @ N/A — Game design philosophy statement about the hierarchy of appeal: enthusiasts over theme fans

Entities

Kanedaperson Retro Ralphperson Keith Elwinperson Steve RitchiepersonStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany

Signals

?
code_update: Pokemon Pinball stuck on version 0.81 for 60+ days with no announced release date for next code update; topper production expected April but no confirmation on coordinated code drop
high · Kaneda: 'We're all in the same ship stuck on code 0.81' and 'I can't even imagine when I think about the pain some of you guys have had to endure because you went in on these LEs. The code wasn't complete.'
~
sentiment_shift: Community enthusiasm predicted to shift away from Pokemon, Beetlejuice, and Winchester toward June-July releases (Transformers, Sonic) as new titles cannibalize existing game hype
medium · Kaneda: 'By the time Sonic the Hedgehog is announced, Spooky Pinball won't even be through half of the Beetlejuice production... we're very fickle. We move on to the next thing.'
$
market_signal: Pokemon LE predicted to maintain value around $14-15K (down from $18-19K launch) while avoiding mass devaluation seen in other recent Stern LEs; positioning as exception rather than rule
medium · Kaneda: 'I don't think anyone's going to lose money... I do think what is going to happen this year is... Pokemon LEs [won't] sell for less than $13,000 this year.'
?
product_concern: Systemic industry issue: pinball machines release with incomplete code requiring months-long development cycle; Stern criticized for software efficiency despite large team and licensing blamed for delays
high · Kaneda: 'It is absolutely crazy to me that Stern Pinball with all of those people over there were still waiting so long for a single code update... should some of these companies sort of figure out a way to make more efficiencies happen, especially in the area of software?'
?

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.060

0:00

A couple years ago I would have cared, given up what it means to be alone. Sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on, sit on. Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, the only pinball podcaster wishing Retro Ralph a very happy belated birthday. I believe it was yesterday he was doing pinball content, talking about goonies. This is how we do it in the world of pinball content creation. There are no days off. You know this? Like when you're doing this and when you're making pinball content, there is never a day off. And for you fans out there, it's the same way. How many days go by a year in which you don't think about pinball for maybe just a few minutes a day? It's moved in, right? Talk about living rent-free in our heads. This damn hobby lives rent-free in our heads. And I've always said it. It's hard doing pinball content because there's only real news about eight days out of the day. Out of the year, do you actually get a new pinball machine? The rest of the year is us talking about speculating and wondering what's around the corner or talking about what's already happened in the past. Now, speaking about the past, I am every day that goes by, I am turning on Pokemon less and less. I've seen what the game has to offer. I've caught the same damn Pokemon over and over and over again. I can't go look at the ones I've caught. I can't share the ones I've caught on Insider Connected. The game has literally, in my mind, hit a wall. And until we get past that wall, playing it right now isn't really that much fun. And now I know what some of you have suffered through in the past. See, here's the issue. If I had bought a Stern LE with code this incomplete this early on and three months go by, if it wasn't Pokemon, I would have taken a huge, significant financial loss as of today. Because when you spend like $13,000 two months ago and the game comes out and it's not even close to being complete and then the word on the street is that the game needs a very long time before it's going to be finished, all the enthusiasm starts to move away from the game. There's really just not even enough for people to talk about, for people to geek out over. You get over the shots, you enjoy the shots. This is my thing about Pokemon. I'm enjoying what's there. But after you sort of like collect the four Pokemon that are in it and you battle Charizard, there is really not much else to do right now. It is very frustrating if you ask me because now I know what you guys feel like that went in all in $13,000 on an LE and then just three months later you start to see them trading for 10 grand. Now, the only silver lining in owning a Pokemon LE is it's not going to do that because the starting price for Pokemon LE was like $18,000 to $19,000. And I think this game is going to hold around $14,000 to $15,000. I don't think anyone's going to lose money, but that's not even what I care about because I'm not selling this game. I want to keep this game and have a very, very rewarding experience for myself and my family with Pokemon. And look, it is coming, but it does beg the question, why is it taking so damn long to get code into a game in which there's barely any real asset development on the part of Stern and the coding team? All of these clips, almost everything happening on the screen is coming from the show, from the Pokemon company. They are arranging other assets. It's not like King Kong where they had to develop every single asset in King Kong. And even then so, I think there was even more in King Kong than there is on day one of Pokemon. And look, day one of Pokemon is the same as like day 60. Nothing else has gone in. We're all in the same ship stuck on code 0.81. We also heard that the topper was going to come out in April Well it almost the end of April Are we going to get the topper this Friday I don know Are they waiting for the topper to then drop new code with the topper Maybe But here the big but In the world of pinball everybody in the dark Nobody knows Do you have a date in which the new code update is going to come out for Pokemon Nope They just going to spring it on you You know, I can't even imagine when I think about the pain some of you guys have had to endure because you went in on these LEs. The code wasn't complete. It was waiting licensure approval. And then by the time the code matured, this is the hardest part for a lot of you guys. By the time the game got good, you just lost so much money and you could have bought the same game if you just waited. But Pokemon is an outlier. I do not think you're going to see Pokemon LEs selling for less than $13,000 this year. Now, a year from now, a lot of bets are off. I do think what is going to happen this year is the following. I think there's going to be a seismic shift in where all the enthusiasm and energy goes in this hobby come June, July. Remember those two months, June and July. We are going to see a seismic shift in where everybody's enthusiasm goes, where everybody's energy goes, and it is going to be based on two games that are going to come out within those two months. And I think these two games are really going to wow everybody. I think one of them is going to be the game of the year and I think one of them is going to be what Stern has been working on for over two years. The most loaded Stern game since Godzilla. In fact, I think there's going to be more in it than Godzilla and that is Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog. Trust me when I say this. It is April. It is going to be May next month. Just two months from now, we are going to see this seismic shift. I think the hype and the energy has moved away from Beetlejuice. It was huge, right, at the beginning of the year. But here's the thing with all these games, Beetlejuice, Winchester, all of these games, the one thing that they do suffer from is simply the slow production schedule. There is only so long that a movie can be in the theaters before the hype moves on. And in the world of pinball, what really makes it difficult is simply you never quite know when the game is done. Is it done this year? Is it going to be done in two years? And after a while, you feel like you've seen stuff so many times where you lose interest. It's right. Remember when you first saw the Day-O mode? Amazing, right? A pinball moment of magic and you can't wait to get it. But how many times between you placing your order and you getting your game have you seen that Day-O mode? People forget the reason why Pirates of the Caribbean, nobody wanted it when it finally came out, Is everybody saw the streams for like a year before they got a chance to buy it. And by then people didn't want it. And look, that's the thing about Pinball. It's a very unique hobby. I don't think there's any other hobby out there that releases stuff so incomplete. When I just preordered my Neo Geo, that new Neo Geo coming out, guess what? It comes out in November. But when it comes out in November, every single game that was made years ago is going to work on day one. I'm not going to like buy something and then slowly be able to see its potential. And that is the pinball journey. And it does beg the question, should some of these companies sort of figure out a way to make more efficiencies happen, especially in the area of software? It is absolutely crazy to me that Stern Pinball with all of those people over there were still waiting so long for a single code update. I know they always shift the blame to the license holder. And yeah, that's the price you pay for the bigger IPs. They're going to be more protective. They want to make sure what goes out with their property is done right. That's why I think this is going to be crazy. I think come June, we're going to see Transformers with way more in the code than we will have in the code of Pokemon. And what will that do to the Pokemon hype? And this is why it's going to get interesting because in the world of Stern, it's like their own games can cannibalize their own games. Because once something new comes out if it done better if it has more in it if it has more pinball moments of magic yeah a lot of the pinball enthusiasts are going to grow a little tired of waiting on Pokemon And we all know that about 90 of Pokemon Pinball is still being bought by pinball enthusiasts not Pokemon fans pinball enthusiasts And so you have to keep those people happy. It is like if I were to give like a Venn diagram of what's the most important thing to making a masterpiece game, first and foremost, you have to make a game that pinball enthusiasts enjoy. And for those people to get hooked, it has to shoot really well. And Pokemon does shoot really well, albeit it's a little bit simple in the amount of shots, but it's very kinetically satisfying. I don't think you can say you love Pinball and not enjoy the shots in Pokemon. We just want more. And so, yeah, I'm a little bit worried that by the time Pokemon gets more, I'm going to be banging on Transformers. I'm going to be banging on Brett Atmos' door to get an early build of Sonic the Hedgehog. This stuff is coming. And the other thing that's going to happen, and this is the scary part about like, you know, people buying all these new games is when the newer stuff comes out and it's like banger and it's good and everybody wants it. I think we're going to see a lot of the older and I don't mean like years ago, I mean, just like recent titles. A lot of the enthusiasm to get it is going to move towards the new stuff. So by the time Sonic the Hedgehog is announced, Spooky Pinball won't even be through half of the Beetlejuice production. And then this is going to create an interesting thing where like even dudes with Beetlejuice spots might look over at that game and be like, well, wait a minute. I can maybe get this game sooner. This game is even better. And this game is the hot game right now. See, that's the thing about FOMO. That's the thing about FOMO and waiting. These boutique companies are very successful at creating that instant FOMO sellout. And then the wait begins. Remember, when they sold Beetlejuice out, not a single Beetlejuice was on the line for like at least two to three months. Within two to three months, Stern has made every single LE and then probably a thousand or two pros and premiums in just the same amount of time. And you know, you got Winchester's Mystery House revealed in October of 2025. People forget this, October of 2025. How many have they made in seven months? Maybe less than 150. By the time they even hit 250 Winchesters, there's going to be Transformers and Sonic the Hedgehog banging on everybody's door to come check them out over Winchester, over Beetlejuice. This is why it's fun. This is why it's fun. And this is why it's a buyer's market. You know how we are. We're very fickle. We move on to the next thing that's around the corner. And here's what's funny is like once Transformers and Sonic is out, and I think they're both going to be great games, then everybody's going to be like, you know what's next? The other king in pinball, the two greatest designers maybe in pinball history, Steve Ritchie, followed up by Keith Elwin. Is it not a great time to be alive in pinball that we get brand new games from Steve Ritchie and Keith Elwin in the same year? Now, obviously, Sonic is a better theme for pinball than Fallout, but I'm also hearing from people over at Stern that Fallout's going to land in the pinball world like a nuclear bomb, people. It's coming, man. And I think Elwin, man, after King Kong being sort of a flop, I think Elwin and the entire team that he works on these games with, I think they're going to come with something super special. We know Stern gives Elwin and his team more bandwidth to put more in his games. And I think it's going to pop and it's going to pop big. And it's just going to get hard for a lot of us to figure out where do we make all this extra money because these things ain't cheap. This ain't cheap, baby. Like a lot of us still have that muscle memory where you could go get three pinball machines for 20 grand. Now you want three pinball machines of the highest trim and you're at forty five thousand dollars. Yeah, we didn't have a recession. We just have the worst inflation over the last decade. So it's really going to test a lot of people's patience. The good news is with Sonic the Hedgehog, they're going to make unlimited CEs. So there really no FOMO there whatsoever It just if you want to get one early then you move early but you don need to And they going to have three models probably the same deal with Potter an arcade edition a Tails edition and a Knuckles or a Sonic edition It going to happen It going to happen And it going to be glorious Transformers I think is going to be awesome And that just Stern and JJP people What about everybody else What about everybody else There rumors that Barrels might even be announcing their next game sometime this year Is it He There also like American Pinball People forget American Pinball They're going to bring back Circus Voltaire, but then what? They're not stopping American Pinball. I saw someone listed out where they think pinball companies fall in terms of tier one, tier two, tier three. Tier one was JJP, Stern, and Spooky, and maybe CGC. I don't know, man. I don't know. Do we put Spooky up there? Yeah, maybe. Possibly. I think so. I forget what was in tier two. Maybe tier two is CGC, like Pinball Brothers. Maybe stuff like Pedretti. But tier three, man, was Hexa and American Pinball. It's like, damn, bro. I sent that to Melvin. I'm like, this is what you should share with this company that we're being considered on the same playing field as Hexa Pinball and the three Musketeers. That game's being marched around the pinball sort of show circuit right now. I don't know, man. I just don't know what makes you wake up and want that. With all of the great pinball in the world, it's hard to wake up and want what looks like just this AI generated sort of like middle of the road game. It just is like, I don't know, man, there's just so much good pinball. And then there's so much good pinball that's available for a great price now because so much more new good pinball keeps coming out. So we're about to see that seismic shift. And until we get there, it's going to be a little bit of a lull. So we're going to do the Beetlejuice drawing this Saturday. I don't know how I'm going to do it. Brenda's away. The kids are going to be here and we're doing a live drawing at 11. I'm really happy to give five of you an opportunity to buy Beetlejuice. I may have waited too long for the hype, right? If I had done this right away, there might be more. But there was a lot of people that submitted a chance to win, which goes to show me that there was still a lot of people that wanted a Beetlejuice that got locked out. I mean, they didn't make that many and a lot more people wanted it and still do want Beetlejuice than got it. Also, I just want to say I don't think losing the hype means that Beetlejuice is now a bad game. No, no one's still hyped about Godzilla. It's still the best game of all time, maybe, right? Nobody's hyped about another medieval madness. It's still one of the greatest pinball machines of all time. Just because the hype from the community moves on, and it's natural for it to move on because we get excited by the shiny new thing. Just because the hype moves on doesn't mean the game gets worse. It's important to remember that, that a great game is always a great game. Time does not change that. Not in pinball because pinball is analog. All pinball is old. It's an old kind of toy. It will never be a digital item. It is an analog toy. So any great layout remains a great layout. Any great pinball toy remains a great pinball toy. Any great pinball moment in the game remains that. Any great light show remains that. Any great art package remains that. Okay, so just remember that. I still think Beetlejuice is a masterpiece. It's just going through a little bit of a lull where like a lot of people are still waiting and our interest is starting to drift towards other things. But it doesn't take away from what they created. The same will happen with Goonies. No, they should not make more than 999. That is the best number for them to do because, again, you don't want people to wait more than a year. You don't want to be like Turner. In 2029, we just changed a few of the spinner sounds to Yukon Yeti, man. Nobody's going to care in four months about Yukon Yeti, let alone waiting two years to get it. Oh, man, Kaneda, what are you saying? You can't say that. Happy birthday, Retro Ralph. Kaneda out.