#43 - JJP POTC Skyrocketing Prices, Winter 2x Tournament

A Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·19m 45s·analyzed·Feb 11, 2021

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.025

TL;DR

JJP POTC secondary prices triple; host predicts rerun, questions industry pricing strategy.

Summary

Host discusses the dramatic secondary market price inflation of Jersey Jack's Pirates of the Caribbean (from ~$9,500 MSRP to $19,500-$25,000 used), speculating this signals a likely rerun despite JJP's stated position against reruns. He analyzes how Pirates defies conventional pinball wisdom (no movie assets, complex ruleset) yet remains highly desirable, and questions implications for JJP's location market strategy and future pricing of games like Guns N' Roses. Also previews upcoming Led Zeppelin Pro review and updates on Winter 2X tournament coverage.

Key Claims

Pirates of the Caribbean MSRP was $8,500 standard/$9,500 LE/$12,500 CE in 2017-2018
high confidence · Host displays screen capture with exact pricing from original launch period
Current secondary market listings show POTC machines priced $19,500-$25,000 with at least 8 on Pinside and 5+ elsewhere
high confidence · Host cites active listings as of podcast recording (February 11)
Jersey Jack removed/altered two major mechs from POTC before production (spinning triple mech became single, chess mech became stationary)
high confidence · Host references JJP's April 2018 YouTube announcement and Pinside community reaction
Host predicts JJP will rerun POTC despite stated position against reruns due to secondary market pricing opportunities
medium confidence · Host speculation based on economics: $9,500 new now selling $20,000+ used; suggests profit margin exists at $12,500 rerun price
Guns N' Roses MSRP increased by $1,000 last week, with standard now ~$8,000+ all-in with taxes/shipping
high confidence · Host references recent JJP pricing adjustment
Winter 2X tournament at District 82 streaming on Fox City's Pinball Twitch at 9:30am Central Saturday with 10-12 rounds plus 3-strike event
high confidence · Host provides tournament details and streaming logistics
Pirates of the Caribbean defies conventional pinball wisdom: lacks movie assets/music/actors, has extremely complex ruleset (22 characters, 6+ multiball, 6+ wizard modes)
high confidence · Host analyzes game design against industry expectations and displays rules flowchart
Host speculates GNR Collector's Edition at $20,000 may now be underpriced given POTC secondary market trajectory
medium confidence · Host opinion based on secondary market inflation pattern; explicitly marks as speculation

Notable Quotes

“If you have a Pirates and you're debating on selling, I mean, me personally, if I had one, I would be selling right now at 17, 18. I would just be going, collecting my money, moving on because I would be absolutely shocked if there's not a rerun of this.”
Host @ ~8:30 — Core thesis: secondary market pricing strongly indicates JJP will rerun POTC despite denials
“It literally does none of that. And even when you get a little bit more in-depth to it... this machine does none of that [no assets, no music, no simplified ruleset].”
Host @ ~12:00 — Analysis of Pirates' paradoxical design success against industry convention
“Now I'm really curious as to where Jersey Jack goes from here because even their owner, Brett Abess... stated on there that it was very important for Jersey Jack to start going after location pinball... But now, if I'm a location and I'm looking at Jersey Jack in general, I really don't see how I can justify even getting the standard.”
Host @ ~18:00 — Questions JJP's location market viability given escalating MSRP; tension between stated strategy and pricing reality
“I really wonder, where is the ceiling to this? Because GNR is a much more desirable pin. And yes, there's going to be a lot more pins out there.”
Host @ ~17:30 — Extrapolates POTC inflation pattern to other JJP premium games; questions secondary market ceiling
“They've set the bar so high. I really am curious to see what happens by summertime, where we are at by then.”
Host @ ~21:00 — Host expresses concern about JJP's ability to maintain design innovation trajectory post-GNR

Entities

Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Pirates of the Caribbeangame Guns N' RosesgameTom GraffpersonFox City's Pinballevent Led Zeppelin Progame

Signals

?
business_signal: Jersey Jack's stated location market expansion strategy appears economically unviable given recent MSRP increases; standard game now $8,000+ all-in, creating ROI challenges for location operators
high · Host references JJP's stated goal to 'help locations get back on their feet' but notes 'if I'm a location... I really don't see how I can justify even getting the standard'
?
event_signal: Winter 2X tournament at District 82 positioned as high-quality competitive event with mixed classic/modern game selection and tournament-standard setup; streaming on Fox City's Pinball Twitch
high · Host describes facility as 'by far my favorite facility to visit around the country' and recommends for new competitive players to watch
?
design_philosophy: Pirates of the Caribbean succeeds despite violating conventional pinball wisdom (no movie assets, no music, highly complex ruleset), suggesting design complexity and mechanical depth can override licensing/theme accessibility in collector market
high · Host analyzes POTC's 22-character selection, 6+ multiball, 6+ wizard modes, and complex ruleset as counterintuitive success factors
$
market_signal: Secondary market inflation on limited-run games (POTC, GNR) suggests FOMO-driven collector speculation rather than gameplay-driven demand; host predicts this will trigger reruns despite manufacturer denials
high · Host states 'I would be absolutely shocked if there's not a rerun' and calculates profit margins supporting rerun at $12,500 with 2.5x secondary value
?
community_signal: Host planning significant video content expansion including 100+ B-roll elements and detailed gameplay/design analysis for game reviews; shift from podcast-only to multimedia format

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.059

0:00

Alright, welcome back everybody to another episode of A Pinball Podcast. Thank you guys so much for being here, for listening, for watching. I really do appreciate it. And if you hear craziness in the background, I do apologize. My four crazy-ass kids are home from school today thanks to snow days. And they're supposed to be doing virtual school, but if you can hear them in the background, they're basically just acting like wild banshees right now. And I'm just going to let them be kids at this point because we're all stuck in at home. And it has been just a crazy week this week. Now, we are going to talk about Pirates of the Caribbean from Jersey Jack. We're going to discuss the crazy spike as if this is a GameStop stock. We're going to talk about this crazy spike that has happened. But before then, just a little bit of general talk just for a few minutes. Pretty much I had another podcast that was ready to go with Tom Graff of Wisconsin. We were going to talk about a tournament that was to be this weekend at District 82, the Winter 2X. However, my whole computer software, my camera, everything just bugged out the entire time we were doing it. So, unfortunately, that file is so corrupt. I don't even know if it's savable at this point. But I will say he is going to be streaming that on Fox City's Pinball this weekend. I am supposed to be there, and I'm going to try everything I can to go there. Now, I'm due, as of this podcast, it's February 11th at 10 a.m. I'm supposed to be on a plane tomorrow morning to Wisconsin. The problem is that I'm running into right now is Oklahoma City is due to have record snow, blizzard-like conditions this weekend. I believe it's kind of flurrying outside right now, and we do have ice on the ground right now. The roads are basically undriveable because in Oklahoma, if there's tornadoes, We're like the 300 Spartans. You know, everything's fine. We're all charging. We all go outside to watch. But when it snows or ice is over, we're just like the Monty Python Grail Knights, just hiding in the background. We don't work well with ice and snow around here. We're never prepared for it for whatever reason. The only thing that happens here in Oklahoma when it ices and snows, guys, is legitimately all the milk and all the bread gets sold out. Oklahomans need their milk They need their bread when it snows For whatever reason That's just the way it is I don't buy it But that's just the way it is So with that being said I hope I can get on a plane The problem I'm going to run into Is not necessarily getting there It's getting back They're saying between 10 to 15 inches of snow Is due here on Sunday And that's when I'm supposed to fly back And therefore if that happens It's legitimately going to shut down our state For over a week or over a week. It legitimately will. And then I'll be stranded somewhere in Wisconsin. And I'm not sure yet if I can do that. But that being said, circling back around... Yes, circle back. For everybody scoring at home.

4:06

All right, so moving forward, Led Zeppelin Pro. my review is nearly ready. I swear guys, I'm doing it. I decided to add in a lot of B roll to this one. I wasn't going to just do a podcast just to talk about it. Although you probably heard me on either Canada's podcast, talking about it briefly or for a couple of minutes or talking about it on this very podcast as well, you know, and definitely to clear there, because I've had some people ask me different questions about it, about what my true opinion is and everything. You know, the But reality is the way that I operate with pinball, I want to always give honest feedback. And just because I have certain criticisms of a pin, it doesn't necessarily mean that I don't actually enjoy that pin. I recognize that not every pin is perfect and therefore you going to have some issues with it There always going to be something that isn quite right that you wish was a little bit better or that you just don like at all certain mechanics certain design choices That happens, but the reality is there's still a ton of fun in it, and it's still fun for me to own personally. I mean, to me, it's like a video game. If I'm playing a video game, I may not like all the choices in it. I may not understand all the choices in it, but I'm still going to enjoy playing that game for an extended amount of time. And that's the way I feel about Led Zeppelin. For me, it's a fun overall game. And my review will be fairly positive. Just spoiler alert. Just because from the way that I look at it, it is a fun game. Now, with that review, I'm hoping to have it out. My goal was to have it out this week, but I'm probably going to bring it out early next week. Legitimately, I've gone all out for this video. I'm terrible at editing. I'm kind of just teaching myself along the way. and I legitimately have over 100 elements of B-roll for this video that's roughly about 11 to 13 minutes long, somewhere right around there. So I try to keep it moving along and hopefully you guys will enjoy it overall because that's the way I plan on doing my reviews from here on out whenever I do get a hands-on review that is here at my house or somewhere close by on location. That's my general plan. So moving forward to the actual podcast topic now. Six minutes in, and we're finally getting to it, guys. Thank you guys for hanging in there. All right, so Jersey Jack, Pirates of the Caribbean. If you guys have not been paying attention to this lately, the prices on there have absolutely just shot up through the roof. and I've been wondering just to myself when I'm sitting down here, you know, not talking to anybody but a mic, just wondering what does this mean for pinball exactly? And when we're talking about these prices shooting up, to give you guys an idea, let me bring up, if you watch this on YouTube, you're going to see my display capture real quick and hopefully this will work.

10:04

All right, one second. I hear a kid crying. Let's go check that out real quick. Okay, we're back. Sorry about that. Apparently, one of my daughters was upset because the cat was not playing with her. Obviously, I should have got a dog. But getting back to it, okay, the funny part about this pinball machine is that it does go against nearly every single talking point when it comes to what a lot of people believe pinball should be. And those points are, and this is dealing with pirates, of course, these points are is that there was a lot of lack of assets with this game in which it didn't have key actors. There was no music from the movies. the rule set itself was incredibly complicated incredibly complicated if we just look here on this capture this is the rules flow chart right here and guys i'm the type that i love a great rule set i love in-depth rules i love rules that are have a lot of breadth to them also but this right here this even confuses me as me at times this is a very difficult rule set to really figure out and i mean just the rule set in general there's 22 characters to choose from there's six multi balls not even including all the wizard modes i believe that there's upwards of six wizard modes completely i mean there's just there is so much going on and there's big reasons for that and one of the main reasons why is that yes the game is jam-packed but because it's so jam-packed you need a reason to really use all those mechs it creates a need to have a fairly in-depth rule set whether it's the lcd whether it's as many different moving parts to the game there is because you really need a reason to use all those parts to shoot everything that's in there to use all the flippers that are in there and so those are three things right there that And, you know, it goes against the general perception that you really need a ton of assets from a theme and that you need music, you need voice actors, you need from the movie or from the assets themselves, or that you need a rule set that's really simplified. Because this machine does none of that. It literally does none of that. And even when you get a little bit more in-depth to it, if you guys remember, and this was on Jersey Jack's YouTube channel back in April of 2018, to where before this machine went into full production, they legitimately removed two of the mechs in there to where the spinning, or not completely removed, but they altered the mechs. spinning mech in the middle that's currently a single mech, some of you guys might not remember this. It used to be a triple mech before then, and then they realized that they had to switch it to single. And then also the chess mech was changed to be stationary instead of opening and closing. So those are two major things of the game that altered. Now, obviously, it didn't break the game. It didn't change people's want for the game three years later, but it did alter a lot of people's perception early on because that was not a popular decision as a matter of fact i believe that video still it has more down votes and up votes and i know on pin side people just lost their minds and i know for a fact with myself my wife she's a huge pirates fan and we were going to be in on an le for it i was going to surprise her with it because one of the first pinball machines i got her if you can kind of see it over here is the stern eotc and as soon as i saw that mech was changing the spinning disc mech was changing that's when i decided you know i'm out like i i just we couldn't justify doing it at that point but that being said it still is a beautiful game obviously there's still a lot going on to it but these are all the things that are lined up for a game in which now it's going for twenty thousand dollars on the third party market so what does this tell us about the future of pinball because this is a theme that wasn't even in high demand at the time guys it was not in high demand and i don't even know if this theme is even in high demand now i i don't know i i would think that the reason why that this pin is so inflated at this point is just because people want something that not too many people have since this game the production of this game, there wasn't a ton that went out in the public just because the sales weren't quite that big. That just the reality of it And that why I wouldn be surprised at all Like I said earlier in this podcast that why I be shocked if this did not come back out again and do another run Because there so much money that is left on the table and that free for the taking at this point. So why not do it? In my opinion, I mean, if people are willing to pay $18,000 to $25,000 for it on third-party market, you better believe New Inbox, they're going to be willing to pay 12.5 for it, even if it's the LE version on a rerun. I mean, that's just, that's the way these economics are going to work for sure. And, you know, I wonder too now, if Pirates is going up that high. Now I'm starting to legitimately wonder, and you guys are going to think I'm crazy about this, but I'm starting to legitimately wonder if the CEs for GNR at $20,000 might actually be underpriced now? I'm actively wondering that. And again, that's just speculation. I'm not saying, oh, somebody go out there and price it at 2530 or some crazy ass number. But I'm wondering, where is the ceiling to this? Because GNR is a much more desirable pin. And yes, there's going to be a lot more pins out there. But I have to believe, too, that the people that are in on the CEs for GNR, the vast majority of them are MAKA fans. So I really wonder if I had a CE, I would have thought around 18 to 20,000 would have been a pretty good resale value on it. Not saying I would do that. That would just be my assumption. But now I'm actively wondering if that is underpriced now, just seeing where Jersey Jack is going. And at the same time, with their increased prices for GNR when they went up by $1,000 on the MSRP just last week to where now even their standard is coming in at around $8,000 when you're considering taxes and being all in with shipping. It ends up probably coming up over $8,000 for a standard. Now, I'm really curious as to where Jersey Jack goes from here because even their owner, Brett Abess or Abyss, I hope I'm getting that right. But I do remember the early podcast for Jersey Jack on their episode two, I believe, that he was even stating on there that it was very important for Jersey Jack to start going after location pinball because he felt like it's an important area of growth for them. I think he was kind of hinting at that in order to penetrate that market that Stern has a hold of. and they even stated as much that they were looking at trying to help locations get back on their feet to make it easier to buy a Jersey Jack pinball machine. But now, if I'm a location and I'm looking at Jersey Jack in general, I really don't see how I can justify even getting the standard because it's how do you get your money back on that on location? unless you're starting to do dollar coin drop, unless you're charging a lot of money. I don't see how a lot of these places can get it. So I'm curious to see, and I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm just curious to see how that plays out in the future with future themes coming out, with new pinball machines coming out. I'm curious to see where that matches up at. And that leads me to wonder, what type of innovations is Jersey Jack going to do? What boundaries are they going to push? Now, is these price increases, will they allow for more boundary pushing? Are they just a result of raw material prices or costs going up, which probably is most likely because I can tell you from personal experience, I know a lot of stuff that I do with my career, there's a lot of stuff that is going up for raw material costs. It's getting a little nutty out there. So I am curious to see where Jersey Jack goes from here and how they're going to really develop these pinball machines and what innovations are they going to do. And are these games going to continue to kind of exceed our expectations on being jam-packed? Like, where do you go after GNR? How do you exceed our expectations? How do you even meet the expectations? They've set the bar so high. I really am curious to see what happens by summertime, where we are at by then. But that's all I got, though, guys, is a quick episode. Sorry about the little interruptions here and there. I will have the Led Zeppelin review up hopefully early next week. That's the goal. It's pretty much done. I just got to tighten up my edit. Thank you guys for getting to the end of this episode. Leave a like below. Comment below. Tell me, guys, tell me what you think. Tell me what you guys think. That's what I'm trying to get out. I can't even get my intro done.