FINALLY!!!! A NEW STERN! BOND!!!

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·11m 38s·analyzed·Sep 7, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.025

TL;DR

Stern's James Bond 007 announced; Kaneda predicts sell-out hit despite price increases.

Summary

Kaneda announces Stern's James Bond 007 pinball machine releasing in September 2022, expressing high confidence it will be a day-one sellout and win machine-of-the-year based on a strong design by George Gomez, Sean Connery theming, and pent-up community demand after a weak year of releases. He discusses expected pricing increases, competitive pressure on smaller manufacturers, and the game's global appeal, while predicting significant revenue concentration at Stern will strain smaller competitors.

Key Claims

James Bond 007 from Stern is releasing in September 2022
high confidence · Kaneda states 'Stern Pinball that it is going to be James Bond 007 is coming out next week from Stern Pinball' and later confirms 'it's coming out in September of 2022'
The game is based on Sean Connery era Bond and four specific movies, featuring an Aston Martin mech
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think it's going to be Sean Connery based. I think there are going to be four movies that the game is based on... I think there is going to be an Aston Martin mech in the game that's going to be the major mech'
George Gomez took over the project from Steve Ritchie
high confidence · Kaneda: 'George Gomez took this game over from Steve Ritchie and Steve Ritchie has gone on the record to say a lot of nasty stuff about Stern'
Stern pricing will increase: Pro to ~$7,200, Premium to ~$9,500, LE to ~$11,500
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'we're also hearing rumors that this release is going to come with a price increase... I think we're going to see LEs this time be like $11.5 and premiums be $9.5... a pro is now going to be like $7,200'
2022 has been a weak year for pinball releases with no standout games since Rush
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I think it's been a really bad year for pinball releases. I don't think there's been a pinball release since Rush'
James Bond will win the Twippy for best pinball machine of 2022
low confidence · Kaneda prediction: 'without even seeing this game, I'm already going to predict that James Bond from Stern Pinball is going to win the Twippy for best pinball machine of 2022'
Stern will deliver all LE orders by end of October with no issues
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'There's going to be no shenanigans. And every single person who orders an LE is going to have their LE by the end of October'
James Bond release will drain purchasing power from competing manufacturers including American Pinball, Pinball Brothers, and Home Pin

Notable Quotes

“We heard today from Stern Pinball that it is going to be James Bond 007 is coming out next week from Stern Pinball.”
Kaneda @ 0:00 — Official announcement of the game reveal
“I'm already going to predict that James Bond from Stern Pinball is going to win the Twippy for best pinball machine of 2022, simply because I know every other machine that's come out this year has been underwhelming.”
Kaneda @ 6:20 — Bold year-end prediction despite not having played the game
“As expensive as these Stern machines are now, I can't look at anyone else that's doing it better than they are.”
Kaneda @ 17:45 — Assessment of competitive positioning despite pricing concerns
“This hobby is super boring without Stern Pinball.”
Kaneda @ 18:15 — Commentary on Stern's market dominance and importance to community engagement
“If you're going to make a small run of a pinball machine, that's fine, but you got to make sure there's a small enough market that wants what you're making.”
Kaneda @ 16:30 — Strategic advice to smaller manufacturers facing pressure from major releases
“I think they're going to really make this game very campy, very funny, and very engaging if you're a fan of the franchise.”
Kaneda @ 2:45 — Design philosophy expectation for the game
“I think this is going to be a day one sellout.”
Kaneda @ 5:30 — Confidence in commercial success and demand

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyGeorge Gomezperson Steve Ritchieperson Kanedaperson James Bond 007game American Pinballcompany Pinball BrotherscompanyHome Pincompany

Signals

?
announcement: Official Stern announcement of James Bond 007 pinball machine releasing September 2022
high · Kaneda states 'We heard today from Stern Pinball that it is going to be James Bond 007 is coming out next week'
?
product_strategy: Stern implementing significant price increases across Pro/Premium/LE tiers; Pro rising to ~$7,200, Premium to ~$9,500, LE to ~$11,500
medium · Kaneda: 'we're also hearing rumors that this release is going to come with a price increase' and specific price point predictions
~
sentiment_shift: Significant pent-up community demand for new Stern release after weak 2022 release cycle; James Bond expected to generate major excitement and FOMO
high · Kaneda: 'I think you've got this entire community just wanting to be excited about a pin' and 'I'm already seeing the FOMO setting in today'
?
business_signal: James Bond release expected to concentrate significant revenue at Stern, potentially starving competing manufacturers (American Pinball, Pinball Brothers, Home Pin, Spooky) of purchasing power in finite collector market
high · Kaneda: 'millions of dollars are going to flow towards Stern Pinball and that millions of dollars now can't flow towards other pinball companies'
?
design_philosophy: Kaneda praises James Bond as thematically well-suited for pinball compared to recent Toy Story release; emphasizes importance of simple, narrative-driven rule structure that matches the IP
high · Kaneda contrasts Bond's clear 'defeat villains from each movie' narrative with Toy Story carousel mech as example of poor theme alignment

Topics

New Game AnnouncementprimaryPricing Strategy and Market ImpactprimaryDesigner/Creative DirectionprimaryCompetitive Dynamics Among ManufacturersprimaryCommunity Sentiment and HypeprimaryTheme Licensing and IP AlignmentsecondaryGame Design PhilosophysecondarySupply Chain and Deliverysecondary

Sentiment

positive(0.82)— Kaneda is enthusiastic about the announcement despite not having played the game, praising Stern's recent quality and George Gomez's design capabilities. He expresses genuine excitement about the franchise fit and community demand. However, he acknowledges concerns about pricing increases and competitive impacts on smaller manufacturers, tempering the sentiment slightly. His closing remarks about being tired due to personal circumstances add a minor note of exhaustion but don't diminish his core optimism about the product.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.035

all right everybody finally finally the back to the future people can shut up it's not going to be back to the future. We heard today from Stern Pinball that it is going to be James Bond 007 is coming out next week from Stern Pinball. There was a lot of debate whether or not it would be Venom or this game. As I was talking about more recently, I thought it would be James Bond because of all of the 60th anniversary stuff going on with 007. So what do I think about this game? Well, I haven't seen it. I don't know much about it other than I think it's going to be Sean Connery based. I think there are going to be four movies that the game is based on. I think there is going to be an Aston Martin mech in the game that's going to be the major mech. I also think this is going to be a game in which Stern is going to get assets from the movie. I don't think this is going to be another one of these like muted clips, right, where we don't see the actors and the actresses actually speaking to us. If I had to sort of anticipate the way this game is going to feel, I think it's going to be a lot like Batman 66. I think it's going to shoot better than Batman 66, but I think there's going to be a lot of what you love in James Bond coming through in the game. I think they're going to really make this game very campy, very funny, and very engaging if you're a fan of the franchise. I also think this game is going to shoot well. I think Gomez has had a lot of time to put into this game. And part of me feels like because George Gomez took this game over from Steve Ritchie and Steve Ritchie has gone on the record to say a lot of nasty stuff about Stern. I don't think that really impacts George. I don't think he cares about that. I think he's busy running the biggest pinball company in the world. But I do think George Gomez is going to make this a little bit of a statement game to his friend Steve and say, hey, look at what we can do. Look at what we have done and look at what I've done with this property that you were originally working on. So I do think this is going to be a game that's going to have some fun toys in it. You know, here's why I'm really excited about James Bond. I am excited that this is a George Gomez pin. I do like George Gomez games. I'm also really excited because modern day Stearns, if we think about Stearns lately, they're a company that's putting a lot more into their games. They seem to be firing on all cylinders recently. And there so many talented people in Stearns Pinball And when they get passionate about a project and I mean this when there real passion behind a project over at Stern they tend to deliver and they tend to bring out something pretty special and they tend to do the franchise justice. So I do think this is a game where if you like 1960s James Bond they're going to deliver a game that you're really going to want. How do I think this game is going to do when it's released next week? I think it's going to be bonkers. I really do. I think this is going to be a day one sellout. game that a lot of people are going to want to get. I think it's been a really bad year for pinball releases. I don't think there's been a pinball release since Rush. And Rush arguably was kind of like last year. all year that has gotten people very excited. And I think you've got this entire community just wanting to be excited about a pin. I think you've got everybody in pinball just waiting to gush over a title. And without even seeing this game yet, I know this is going to sound crazy, without even seeing this game, I'm already going to predict that James Bond from Stern Pinball is going to win the Twippy for best pinball machine of 2022, simply because I know every other machine that's come out this year has been underwhelming. And so I do think that everyone is going to move towards this game like a moth to a flame. And even if you don't like the James Bond theme, I think it's going to win you over because it's going to be campy, it's going to be fun, and those are two really important elements for pinball. James Bond is also just an iconic IP. Now, whether you like the Sean Connery movies or not, it's still James Bond, right? If you look at the pinball demographic, what do you want to have call outs from, James Bond or Bo Peep. And so on this level, I think a lot of guys are going to be really into this theme. When you also look at pinball as a global marketplace, James Bond has a humongous global following. And I think people in Europe and other parts of the world that love James Bond, they're really going to want this pin. And I know my friend Neil McRae over in the UK, he's really, really, really going to want this pin. And so for all those pinheads in the UK, this is a dream theme for them. I'm trying to think like, what are the weaknesses of this game we haven't even seen yet? You know, there might be some people out there that would argue that old James Bond didn't really age well, that the themes in the movies aren't really aligned with the current like wokeness of culture. You know, I think Stern's smart. I don't think we're going to see clips of like James Bond, like smacking women around and then all of a sudden they're in bed together. You know, I think they're going to leave all of that stuff out. I think what you're going to get a plethora of the sense of humor and the campiness of old James Bond. Here why I also think James Bond is going to be a really good theme for pinball I think it a really simple story to understand You playing as James Bond and you trying to defeat the bad guys from each movie It's very similar to Batman and Robin and you're trying to jail the villains. So I think when you walk up to this game, it's going to be pretty easy to communicate and articulate to people what the goal of the game is. You know, and how cool is it? You're playing as James Bond. You need to go through these four James Bond movies and defeat the bad guys. It's almost like the rule set starts to just write itself. You know, it's like you get to multiball when you're battling a boss from each movie. If you successfully defeat each of the four bosses or villains, then you get to like a wizard mode. You know, you start to see like this is what pinball should be. This is why I've always said pinball needs to be easier to understand and easier to follow. And it needs to make sense for the property. It's another reason why I like Toy Story is such a big miss for so many people because Toy Story is not a movie about a carousel. And then you make a pinball machine about a carousel. You know, it's just hard. You know, everyone would rather be James Bond. Like, I only want to be Buzz if I'm going to Pizza Planet. trying to save Woody from Sid's backyard. I don't want to be Buzz in Toy Story 4 because he's just a buried character in the background. But I think people are waiting. I think people have been thirsty for a new game from Stern Pinball, and it's finally here. It's finally here, and it's coming out in September of 2022. You know, we're also hearing rumors that this release is going to come with a price increase. Now, I thought they were going to keep the price the same, you know, but it's obvious that the cost of operations keeps going up and up and up. I don't like it. I don't want to see these games get any more expensive. You know, I just don't want to spend another $400 or $500 on a pro premium NLE. Now, when Stern does a price increase, they usually do it across the board. And I think we're going to see LEs this time be like $11.5 and premiums be $9.5. I mean, it's crazy. Like a pro is now going to be like $7,200, like for a Stern Pro. And you know what's interesting about all these price increases is like they used to happen gradually. Now, just a few years later, they're 50% more than when games like Ghostbusters came out. 50% more for a Stern LE. But even with all that in mind, the frenzy to get one is going to be crazy. Even if they make a thousand of them, I'm already seeing the FOMO setting in today. People are nervous. They don't know if they can get one. Stern sent out an email how they're going to have a few for sale on Stern's website. Those are going to sell out in just a matter of seconds. It would have been fun for Stern to do a few creative things. You've got this rich collector community. It would have been funny if Stern said, if any of you out there own an Aston Martin, we will allocate a game to you, right? I know that's like favoring the rich, but it would just be funny. You know, I think people would get it. Like how many of you listening to this right now have an Aston Martin that collect pinball Probably not many if any of you I don know I just think this game gonna be good I think it gonna be a winner for Stern I not gonna overhype it I hope I haven't overhyped it here as you can see I think I'm coming down with a little bit of a cold so I'm a little bit strained my voice is a little bit strained I'm a little bit tired our nanny is on vacation and so Brenda and myself are juggling doing work and watching out for Killian and a Stern pinball machine is coming out all happening at the same time. The good news is this. Now that this game is back, I will be doing my Saturday morning spectaculares again on Facebook. A lot to talk about. I think this game is going to be a home run for Stern Pinball. Doesn't it make total sense now why Spooky wanted to get those TNA orders in last week? Because now who's going to go buy a Toy Story this week? You know, who's going to put money aside for American Pinball's next game and then the next game from Pinball Brothers, Queen Pinball? What is going to happen right now with the launch of this game. Whether you like James Bond or not, there's no denying the fact that millions of dollars are going to flow towards Stern Pinball and that millions of dollars now can't flow towards other pinball companies. I think we're headed for a period in pinball right now where the brief is really simple. You need to make a great game people want. And if you're going to make a small run of a pinball machine, that's fine, but you got to make sure there's a small enough market that wants what you're making. And I think the pressure is going to be on American Pinball more than any other company this fall. The Pinball Brothers, like, I don't know, like, I don't really know, like, what they're planning to sell with Queen Pinball. I don't think it's gonna sell that well. Home Pin with Spinal Tap, this is horrible news for them because there's only so much money to go around. And in a community like this, when there's only so much money to go around and only so much room you have in your home, you're going to want to buy the best pinball possible for the money. And it almost kills me to say this. As expensive as these Stern machines are now, I can't look at anyone else that's doing it better than they are. And I think this game is going to come out. There's going to be no shenanigans. And every single person who orders an LE is going to have their LE by the end of October. Like that's incredible. And it's exciting to see Stern come back to the hobby like this. And this hobby is super boring without Stern Pinball. And I can't wait to see this game. And I can't wait to give you my first impressions on James Bond Pinball next week. And hopefully I will have more of my voice back. Everybody, thank you for being a member of the Kaneda Club. Even when I'm exhausted, I'm always going to put the mic on and give you my thoughts as things happen in the pinball world. Everybody, have a great day. James Bond is coming. Get your wallets ready, people. Later. Thank you.