Episode 720: "Kaneda Predicts Elwin Bond!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·19m 6s·analyzed·Sep 15, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

Kaneda defends his James Bond reporting and reiterates Keith Elwin street-level variant prediction.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the chaotic James Bond reveal at a UK pinball expo, defends his reporting of leaked images, and doubles down on his prediction that Keith Elwin is designing a street-level fourth James Bond variant. He criticizes Stern's crisis management, praises the game's mechanical depth, and reflects on broader industry dynamics including Spooky's TNA repositioning and Home Pin's upcoming Spinal Tap release.

Key Claims

Keith Elwin is designing a fourth James Bond game as a street-level (no ramps) variant
medium confidence · Kaneda speaking; based on unconfirmed conversations with people who claim to have seen it. He has no direct evidence but is 'hearing it all over Pinside' and has spoken to unnamed sources.
The James Bond images leaked due to lack of security at the UK show setup, not due to any single person's malice
high confidence · Kaneda's first-hand account of receiving assets from Phil (UK contact) with confidentiality request, then seeing images appear on Pinside minutes later, suggesting someone else posted them.
Kaneda did not post the leaked images to Pinside or share them beyond his Facebook page and podcast club
high confidence · Kaneda's direct statement: 'I swear to you I do not have a fake Pinside account...I did not post these photos.'
Stern Pinball should have done better security planning and crisis communication
high confidence · Kaneda's direct critique of Stern's showroom setup and lack of official response/engagement with community.
The Keith Elwin James Bond game will be a 1962-themed throwback design with single-level playfield
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on thematic alignment with Sean Connery era (1962) and his understanding of Elwin's design sensibilities.
Stern had extra time to work on multiple James Bond designs due to production delays
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates that Stern's nine-month delay from schedule created capacity for a second designer variant.
Home Pin's Spinal Tap will sell between 300-500 units maximum
low confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on Home Pin's weak brand following, dated technology (orange DMD + LCD), and market saturation.
Spooky's opening TNA orders to non-fan-club members was smart but may have missed FOMO window due to James Bond reveal
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of TNA's positioning relative to newly revealed James Bond's $9,000 price point and feature set.

Notable Quotes

“I'm here to tell you right now. I feel really, really good about this prediction that Keith Elwin is working on a street level game with no ramps that is based on James Bond.”
Kaneda @ early in episode — Core thesis of the episode; doubles down on contested prediction.
“This has been one of the most interesting, one of the most dramatic, and one of the most like news-filled weeks in the history of pinball reveals, right?”
Kaneda @ opening segment — Sets stakes for episode; reflects on industry-wide impact of the leak.
“It is still Stern's fault. They let that game leave Chicago, end up in the UK, and they did not have a good plan in place to keep leaks from happening until they were ready to show the game.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Summarizes his accountability argument; shifts blame from community to manufacturer.
“I think this is going to go down as the game of the year. I think everyone, even though we might be complaining about artwork, I think everyone's going to want one.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Positive endorsement of George Gomez James Bond; predicts commercial success.
“I think the Keith Elwin James Bond game is going to be a throwback pinball machine that looks like it came from the year 1962.”
Kaneda @ later in episode — Specific design prediction for the rumored Elwin variant.
“Stern is the company that unboxed it on a show floor. This was going to happen. whether or not it was Phil or somebody else.”
Kaneda @ mid-episode — Core responsibility assignment; exonerates individual but blames Stern's logistics.
“They really are in Stern's back pocket because that's why they're not saying anything.”
Kaneda @ closing segment — Accusation that some content creators are withholding coverage due to Stern relationships.
“Canada and Macho are going to dance into the twippies.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Keith Elwinperson George Gomezperson PhilpersonStern PinballcompanyJames Bond (Stern)gameSpooky PinballcompanyTNA 2.0game

Signals

?
machine_intel: Keith Elwin is rumored to be designing a street-level (single-level, no-ramp) fourth variant of James Bond pinball based on 1962 Sean Connery aesthetic; Kaneda has not seen it but claims to have spoken with people who have.
medium · Kaneda: 'I feel really, really good about this prediction that Keith Elwin is working on a street level game with no ramps that is based on James Bond...I haven't seen it, but I have spoken to some people that have said they have seen it.'
?
leak_detection: Leaked James Bond images appeared on Pinside approximately 5 minutes after Kaneda received embargoed assets from UK contact Phil; images spread rapidly across community forums.
high · Kaneda: 'On Monday morning when I came into work, I was given some assets from the game...About five minutes later, I saw that the images were all over Pinside.'
?
product_concern: Stern Pinball's UK showroom setup had no physical security, photo restrictions, or coverage to prevent premature leaks; game was displayed openly during vendor booth setup with no prevention measures.
high · Kaneda: 'They just brought the game out with no protection, no security, no coverage...There's no security. There's no one telling you not to take photos.'
?
design_philosophy: Kaneda predicts Elwin's James Bond variant will feature 1962-era throwback design celebrating Sean Connery films with single-level playfield and modern Elwin layout elements incorporated.
medium · Kaneda: 'I think the Keith Elwin James Bond game is going to be a throwback pinball machine that looks like it came from the year 1962...I think that's going to be a modern Elwynn like design flow layout elements incorporated into a classic game.'

Topics

James Bond (Stern) leak and reveal chaosprimaryKeith Elwin fourth James Bond variant predictionprimaryStern's crisis management and security failuresprimaryKaneda's accountability for leaked imagesprimaryMarket competition between James Bond, TNA 2.0, and Spinal TapsecondaryPinball media coverage gaps and content creator dynamicssecondaryStreet-level game design trendssecondaryUK pinball community fallout and trust erosionmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(0.55)— Kaneda is highly positive about James Bond's mechanics and game design (0.8), vindictive/defensive about his own reporting (0.4), critical of Stern's handling (0.2), and pessimistic about Home Pin and secondary market positioning (0.3). The overall tone oscillates between enthusiasm for pinball as a whole and frustration with industry management and media complacency.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.057

If Kaneda is correct about Keith Elwin doing a fourth version of James Bond as a street-level game, he's going to march into the Twippies like this. Ah, welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Welcome to all of my new club members over from the UK. It's really great to have people from overseas joining the show. I got one simple question to ask as we start this episode of Canada's Pinball Podcast. Where's the pinball media at? Where are they all at? I don't understand this. This has been one of the most interesting, one of the most dramatic, and one of the most like news-filled weeks in the history of pinball reveals, right? The flubbing of the James Bond reveal has created so much interesting speculation and back and forth. And the rumor mill is going crazy. And meanwhile, the entire pinball media landscape completely dead. I only saw one show by the Loser Kid Pinball Podcast. Where is everybody else? Kerry Hardy did a video, but nobody else is saying anything. And that's why you're here in the Canada Club. So I'm here to say right now, I hope that everyone who made fun of me, who called me names, who said there is no way that Keith Elwin is going to do a fourth version of the James Bond game. I'm hearing it all over Pinside. I've screen grabbed everyone who said I'm crazy. It's never happening. I'm here to tell you right now. I feel really, really good about this prediction that Keith Elwin is working on a street level game with no ramps that is based on James Bond. It is going to be the mystery game, people. Look, I haven't seen it, but I have spoken to some people that have said they have seen it. Now, either I am getting trolled really, really hard, or this is going to be the cherry on top of this James Bond game. Now look, it is Thursday. We have seven more days to go until we see this game. Here's the good news. We've already seen it. We've already seen the George Gomez version of the game. And I will say this, I don't love the artwork. I get it. It's based on the old James Bond movie posters. But I do think in person, these games are going to look better than these leaked photos we've seen. I'm going to talk a little bit about the leaks and everyone trying to figure out what the source is of these leaks. It was in Canada. I'm going to tell you exactly how this went down. But I want to get back to the game. The game is packed. I am so happy that Stern Pinball has put this much into the game. I think this is going to be an amazing game. I think it's going to be an amazing game to play. I think when we hear the music and we see the clips from the movies and we get the call outs and we see all of these fun mechs happening and we see the balls being locked and being picked up by jet packs and being dropped on tanks. I think this is going to go down as the game of the year. I think everyone, even though we might be complaining about artwork, I think everyone's going to want one. And I think there's going to be a feeding frenzy to get a James Bond LE. I really do. I think this game is going to be a day one sellout And I think when we see it in action, everyone's going to go real giddy. And it's so unfortunate that this game had such a weird week, right? I think everyone sort of calmed down a little bit. I know there's a lot of finger pointing happening within the UK pinball community. I know some people think I leaked these photos, that I burned someone. I did not. Here's what happened, people. It went down real simply like this. On Monday morning when I came into work, I was given some assets from the game. Someone said, here you go, but please do not share these assets, but you can talk about what you're seeing. And that's exactly what I did. If you saw what happened on my Facebook page, I said I was going to do a podcast in which I gave my club members exclusive information on what's in the game. And then what happened? About five minutes later, I saw that the images were all over Pinside. Ladies and gentlemen I swear to you I do not have a fake Pinside account I am not on there in any other capacity other than reading the site I do not have an avatar I do not have a login I did not post these photos Somebody broke the trust of Phil over in the UK and shared these photos out and someone posted them on Pinside. And the moment that happened, the moment they're out, they're out. Now look, I know Pinside has taken down some of the images. I did not take down the images on my Facebook page. I'll tell you why. Because nobody asked me to. Stern didn't reach out to me. They did not ask Kaneda to remove the photos, so they remain. We've all seen the game, right? If you're listening to this podcast right now, there's a 99.9% chance that you have seen the game, that you're excited about the game, but the game has been revealed. And I know there's a lot of drama with the pinball community in the UK. There's a lot of finger pointing, who did what, who shared what, who broke trust. Look, I don't know if we're ever going to know who did it. It was not me. I did not burn the person who sent me the images. I will say, I think everyone needs to stop beating each other up. Yes, there is obviously some blame to go around on people who shared the assets. But ultimately, the reason why this game leaked, it's all on Stern, people. Stern is the company that unboxed it on a show floor. This was going to happen. whether or not it was Phil or somebody else. This game was going to leak before the Tuesday reveal, especially if Stern did it like this. They just brought the game out with no protection, no security, no coverage. So when you do that, it's gonna leak. And I think the lesson learned here needs to be learned over at Stern Pinball. And the other part that's really weird to me, and I said it yesterday on my Facebook Live rant. By the way, if you haven't seen that video yesterday that I did on Facebook, go check it out. It's one of my greatest Facebook lives of all time. And in just 20 minutes, we were able to raise like 13,000 stars. I'm going to use that money tomorrow to take Brenda to a really nice hand roll sushi lunch at Kazunori. But that's not why you're listening. The other part that's weird to me is like Stern doesn't come out and say anything other than they've delayed the release of the game. I think Stern Pinball needs to engage the community more. I think their marketing team and their PR people, they need to talk to us more. Because part of being the communications and public relations and marketing wing of a company is also to help that company out when there's a bit of a crisis. They need to do more scenario planning at Stern. So what do we do if pictures leak? How do we handle that? What happens if they're out there? Well, are we going to go ask people to take the photos down? If I were Stern, I would have had George Gomez do a Facebook Live. I would have. I would have recorded a Facebook Live with George. And he would say, hey, everybody, this is George Gomez from Stern Pinball. We know you're super excited about this game. We know some images leaked of the game. Trust me, this game looks incredible in person. And we can't wait for you to see the official reveal of this game. We've delayed it because of the Queen's passing. We didn't realize the magnitude of what's going on here when we started to set up at the show. So we're asking everybody, do us a favor. Please take down all leaked images and please don't share them. We really want you to see this game for the first time in the right way. And that's going to happen next week. And they also should have gave a date. They really didn't. They didn't say anything in that email. They didn't say anything. And now we're seeing that the countdown clock is next Thursday. So we have an entire week to go. Now, there's a lot of questions I have right now. Are the Stern personnel who were supposed to be there for this launch, are they staying now an extra week in the UK? Is the license holder paying for their hotel rooms? This whole thing is turning out to be a real cluster. Distributors don't know anything. Dealers don't know anything. Nobody knows the price. Nobody knows what the LE looks like. Nobody knows if Canada is actually going to be right. and there's going to be a Keith Elwin version of the game that they unveil at the British Film Institute on September 30th. This is exciting. This is the thing. This is what's crazy to me. There are still so many question marks around this game. Even though we know what it looks like, we don't know some of the big elements. How much are they going to charge us? You know, what does the LE look like? Here's another question I have. When George Gomez did that interview last week, he held up a mech that was a scuba diver. So where does that scuba diver go Are they going to put that scuba diver on the left side of the game where the upper left flipper is Or maybe that in the LE the Thunderball edition because that scuba diver comes from Thunderball So I still have a lot of questions on this game and we have to wait a week And here's what I implore everybody to do. Let's stop attacking people about where photos came from. We're in this together. This community is all in it together. None of us work for Stern Pinball. None of us have money invested in Stern Pinball. And Stern Pinball is not going to lose one penny because photos of this game leaked. This isn't like the new iPhone and you leaked it early and they were spending multi-millions of dollars on a launch event that you just spoiled, right? They didn't hire celebrities to launch this product. There is no money lost at all on this, maybe other than hotel rooms and bruised egos over at Stern Pinball. So I always want to ensure that we just stick together, like we're all in this together. The world doesn't know this pinball machine is out there. The world has not seen James Bond. A few of us nerds and geeks have seen the game. And I always want to ensure that because I think we need to preserve and protect the community more than anything else. I think our bond and our relationship is more important. And nobody should be berated. Nobody should be insulted. And nobody should be personally attacked simply because they shared leaked images. It is what it is. It's still Stern's fault. I mean this. It is still Stern's fault. They let that game leave Chicago, end up in the UK, and they did not have a good plan in place to keep leaks from happening until they were ready to show the game. That is on them. I think Phil just got excited like any of us would have done. All of us. I mean this. How many of you out there would have been reaching for your cell phones if you just saw a guy setting up the game? There's no security. There's no one telling you not to take photos. and all of these different vendors are setting up their booths and you walk by this vendor booth and there's James Bond and nobody's stopping you. You're telling me you wouldn't take out your camera and start taking some photos? Of course you would. Of course I would. It's really weird to me when people are like on the side of Stern like, oh yeah, for your 15 minutes of fame, is it worth it? Is it worth it? You ruined it. No, we didn't ruin anything. This is all on Stern people. It really is. They should have taken more measures. So we gotta wait a week. We gotta wait a week. Now look, I feel really good about this Keith Elwin game. Here's what I think it's going to be. I think it's going to be a game that's single level, no subways, no ramps. I think it's going to be a beautiful game. I think the art package on the Elwin game is going to be super beautiful. Here's my prediction. I think the Keith Elwin James Bond game is going to be a throwback pinball machine that looks like it came from the year 1962. I think it's going to be a game that celebrates all of James Bond, but be a throwback, be like a retro design. And I think that's what we're going to see. And it makes total sense because James Bond, the Sean Connery James Bond movies began in 1962. And I think that's what we're going to see. I don't think it's going to compete with the George Gomez game at all. I think everyone needs to start looking at this thing just like a cherry on top of what they're doing with James Bond. That's what it is. It's just a way for Stern to flex. And I think people are forgetting Stern has had all of this extra time because of the delays. I think people are forgetting a few things. People are like, there's no way they're going to have two designers work on the same thing. They've done it before, people. They do it when they have another designer do a home pin. You know, Jack Danger did the home pin version of Jurassic Park. And Keith Elwin did the cornerstone. And because Stern had like nine months off from new releases, they had time to do this. I don't think this would have happened if everything stayed on schedule. I really don't. I think this is happening because they had a little bit of a delay. They had a little bit of extra time. And also Keith Elwin is so prolific. The guy dreams, eats, sleeps, wakes up pinball. He can design a street level game blindfolded. So I think this game is going to be cool. I think it's going to be a throwback. And I think it's going to have some like modern Elwynn like design flow layout elements incorporated into a classic game. I don't know the price. I don't know if it's going to be limited or not. What I'm hearing is this. They are not going to limit it. It's going to be made to order. What if they opened it up? What if they said we're going to open up orders for Keith Elwin's game for seven days? However many orders we get over those seven days, that's how many we're going to make. And then they could set a price. Why wouldn't they do that? There are so many different ways they could sell this game and it is not going to overshadow the Gomez game It not going to override what George did It just going to be Stern saying we can do whatever we want because we Stern And I think that what the play is All right Any other news in the pinball world? So we are going to see Spinal Tap Pinball from Home Pin this Saturday. This is crazy that Spinal Tap is actually going to be revealed before James Bond. You know, it's also crazy about Spinal Tap. It's another game that's based on a UK pop culture thing. James Bond comes from the UK, and so does Spinal Tap. So, you know, as the Queen passes away, the two pinball machines that are coming out right now are UK properties. It's pretty ironic if you ask me, but we're going to see this game from Home Pin. I don't think it's really going to land with any fanfare, but there is hope for this game, and I'm going to tell you what it is. The greatest hope for Home Pin Spinal Tap is the price. If this game is priced around like $7,500 in a world in which all this pinball is getting super expensive, I think we might see some people go in on this game. My prediction about Spinal Tap is this. I think it's going to be pretty ugly looking. I don't think it's mechanically going to be that impressive. And I don't think there are many people out there, as they look at their wallets, really going to send money to Home Pin. I would have to assume that this Spinal Tap game will sell between three and 500 units max. Max. It is a licensed property. And that is why I think they might get up to that many sales. But it's also home pin. This is a company that has no following, no fan base. And after Thunderbirds, it's like, how do you create excitement for this brand? And also remember, it's 2022 people. and this game is coming out with an orange DMD below an LCD screen, that is going to look horrible. I don't even have to see it. That is going to look horrendous. It's going to look lazy. And I think when you compare it to what else is out in pinball, I don't think many people are going to buy this game. So Spooky Pinball has finally listened to Kaneda and they've opened up the TNA 2.0 order banks to people outside of the fan club. So if you're not a fan club member, you can now buy this game. I think it's super smart they did this. I think they probably will sell all of these TNAs. But now that we've seen James Bond and what you can get for $9,000, I think it's a lot harder to sell these TNAs. I don't think they're worth nine grand. I don't. And the other part is this. I think Spooky messed up the FOMO window because what they should have done is they should have opened it up for fan club members on day one and then they should have opened it up to a wider audience to buy on day two but now doesn't it feel like this game was revealed like a month ago now that we've seen James Bond I think if you've got nine grand you're going to want to probably buy that game now look TNA is a completely different game but here's the other part like TNA is a street level game it's a single level game and if there's a Keith Elwin single level James Bond, now it gets really interesting, right? Why would you buy TNA today? Maybe you wait and see what the single level James Bond game is. Because on some level, on some pinball playing experience level, you know, there's certain people that like single level games and there's certain people that don't. Like I'm one of the people that don't really love single level pinball. I like full featured games. I like hitting ramps. I like there being a lot of toys and mechs in a game. But this just gets really, really interesting. It's been an amazing week for pinball. It really has. And I really want my content creator friends out there. Guys, don't wait till Monday. Come on. This thing is happening in real time. It's like Top Gun. Like this thing is going to be over. By the time you do your shows, like you're missing everything. It is the greatest week of pinball speculating and covering something. We've never seen Stern fumble a launch like this. I also think it goes to show that some of these content creators, they really are in Stern's back pocket because that's why they're not saying anything. Everybody, thank you so much for being a member of the Canada Club. I'm going to come at you in real time when stuff is happening, when it's relevant, and I'm going to die on this hill that Keith Elwin's James Bond is coming out. And everyone who said I was wrong, get ready to eat crow. Canada and Macho are going to dance into the twippies. Later, everybody. Thank you.