Episode 809: "Is there Jersey Jack Passion?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 11s·analyzed·Jun 8, 2023

Analysis

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TL;DR

Kaneda questions JJP's production capacity for Harry Potter and questions designer passion across manufacturers.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Jersey Jack Pinball's capacity constraints ahead of the Harry Potter release, questioning whether JJP can handle massive demand while expressing concerns about designer passion at JJP and other manufacturers. He analyzes Godfather's secondary market trajectory, critiques American Pinball's leadership and production priorities, and speculates on Stern's factory expansion implications including potential Venom announcement and vault editions.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Pinball is making approximately 100-150 games per week, possibly up to 200 on good weeks
medium confidence · Kaneda's estimation based on Guns N' Roses production timeline (40 games/week) and industry knowledge
Godfather CE sold better than the LE edition
high confidence · Kaneda's direct statement about known sales data from JJP
Harry Potter could receive 7,000 orders upon announcement
low confidence · Kaneda's hypothetical scenario used to illustrate capacity concerns
Stern Pinball new facility could produce close to 1,000 games per week
medium confidence · Kaneda's statement about Stern's upcoming manufacturing capability
Material and labor costs for Stern Premium/LE games are approximately $4,000-$5,000 per machine
low confidence · Kaneda's estimation and calculation
JJP has historically failed to run multiple game production lines simultaneously
medium confidence · Kaneda's observation about JJP operational patterns
David Fix stated 200 orders for new Houdini machines and exact sales figures that Kaneda finds implausible
high confidence · Kaneda referencing David Fix's recent statements
American Pinball Signature Edition buyers have no ETA for delivery despite nonrefundable deposits
medium confidence · Kaneda's conversation with friends who ordered the $17,500 game
Eric Meunier is not passionate about the themes he designs for (Godfather, Pirates, Toy Story)
medium confidence · Kaneda's assessment based on Meunier's public statements about not being a fan of these properties
Stern is planning a factory change in August with new game reveal in September/October

Notable Quotes

“What will happen at Jersey Jack Pinball the day they reveal Harry Potter and they get like 7,000 orders for the game?”
Kaneda @ early — Framing device for the entire production capacity discussion about JJP's capabilities
“I really want Eric Meunier one day to make a game that is based on a theme that he's super passionate about.”
Kaneda @ mid — Core criticism of designer motivation and product quality at JJP
“Feel like all great pinball machines, the greatest ones out there, there has to be a level of passion by the designer that they capture in the thing they create.”
Kaneda @ mid — Kaneda's philosophy on what separates great games from mediocre ones
“I just don't like it... Games that were ordered with nonrefundable deposits... yet he's showing up at pinball shows and he's giving distributors games.”
Kaneda @ mid — Criticism of David Fix's fairness in fulfilling preorders versus show priorities
“Every time he says something, I don't really believe it.”
Kaneda @ mid — Direct statement of distrust toward David Fix's credibility and claims
“There is at most, and I mean this, at most, there is less than $50 in lighting costs in this $1,000 topper.”
Kaneda @ mid — Critique of American Pinball's Godzilla topper pricing and value proposition
“These games are probably only costing Stern four to $5,000 in material and labor costs to make each game.”
Kaneda @ late — Analysis of Stern's profit margins on premium/LE machines
“I've been sitting on the pinball purchasing sidelines now for the last three months and you know what I've seen? I've seen my checking account go up, go up, go up.”
Kaneda @ late — Personal anecdote illustrating buyer discipline and pricing concerns

Entities

Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Kanedaperson Eric Meunierperson David FixpersonJack Guarneriperson

Signals

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manufacturing_signal: Kaneda estimates JJP produces 100-150 games/week (possibly 200 on good weeks) based on Guns N' Roses timeline (~40/week average), contrasting sharply with Stern's new facility targeting ~1,000/week
medium · Calculation based on Guns N' Roses 4,000 unit production in ~2 years equals ~40 games/week, with adjustment for production pauses
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product_strategy: JJP has historically failed to run multiple game production lines simultaneously, forcing sequential rather than concurrent production of titles
medium · Kaneda states: 'they have to get this company to a place where they can run more than one game at a time'
$
market_signal: Godfather CE expected to experience secondary market price decline as more CEs flood the market, with LE prices collapsing first, setting new baseline expectations
medium · Kaneda's analysis of inevitable price compression: 'Once those LEs start selling for thousands less than they were originally, that's going to be the new price'
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sentiment_shift: Godfather is not converting new buyers despite positive reviews; majority of buyers committed pre-play, suggesting FOMO-driven purchasing rather than organic interest
medium · Kaneda: 'I'm not seeing many people being converted over to Godfather... The majority of people who bought the Godfather, you bought it before you played it'
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design_philosophy: Kaneda argues that greatest pinball machines require designer passion for the theme; JJP designers (Meunier, Ritchie) assigned IP they don't personally connect with, resulting in hollow executions

Transcript

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0:00

Hey everybody, welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm your host Kaneda. I know it's been a while. I've been under the weather. I've been traveling for work and I'm looking outside right now. It is like Wednesday early afternoon and the entire sky in New York City is this ominous orange. I just went outside and it's I'm going to talk about what's going on in the pinball industry. We're going to talk about what's going on with each of these companies, but I want to start today's episode by talking about Harry Potter and Jersey Jack Pinball. When I was thinking more about this as I was in the shower, as I was going on walks, as I was flying to Akron, Ohio, I thought one simple question. What will happen at Jersey Jack Pinball the day they reveal Harry Potter and they get like 7,000 orders for the game? And it's an interesting question, right? Because as Stern Pinball is about to move into its new facility in which it could probably crank out close to a thousand games a week. How is Jersey Jack Pinball going to handle a theme with this much demand? Now look, we don't know if the game's gonna be any good. I'm really nervous about Jersey Jack Pinball Harry Potter. We've seen what they got with freakin' Willy Wonka, with Pirates of the Caribbean. We've seen how they get these like lunchbox license deals. The same thing with Toy Story. They didn't get a lot of clips from the movie. There's no audio synced up with the actors in the films. The Godfather has it synced up but then there's barely any clips from the Godfather. And I think for Harry Potter to really work for Potter fans, you're gonna wanna see a lot of those iconic scenes from the movie in the pinball machine and I don't think you're gonna get it. So that's one of my big concerns but let's just assume that this game is amazing, okay? Let's just assume that it's loaded with mechs. Let's just assume that they don't make you choose between 22 different characters. Let's just assume that Harry Potter is a game that everybody wants. How does JerseyJackPinball prepare to make so many games? And it still begs the question, does anyone know the answer to this question? How many games a week is JerseyJackPinball making on a weekly basis? How many Godfathers have been going out the door? Now we could probably do something. We could probably look at how long it takes them to make all 1,000 Godfather collector's editions which are now on the line. I know they always show a picture of like all the games lined up, but you know what they never really do show? You never really see a live tour of Jersey Jack Pinball every week the way Stern does Factory Fridays. And I'm going to just make a guess. I think Jersey Jack Pinball is making more like a hundred to a hundred and fifty games a week. I think that's kind of where they're at. Maybe on a good week it's up to two hundred, but if Stern Pinball is going to get to one thousand games a week. Harry Potter gets 7,000 orders and you take into account 52 weeks. So here's why I don't think Jersey Jack Pinball is making anywhere close to 150 games a week. I'll tell you why. Because if you think about Guns N' Roses for example, how long did it take them to make like 4,000 GNRs? It took about 2 years, right? So it took about like almost a hundred weeks to make 4,000 Guns N' Roses machines. So let's say you do 52 weeks a year, that's roughly only 40 games a week. Now we know the issue is this, right? That the Jersey Jack line is not constantly going every single week. We know there's always a pause between titles. There's turnover time when they have to do that. But let's just say on average. If they make a hundred games a week on a good week, that means they can make 5200 games a year. I think for Jersey Jack to really handle Harry Potter properly, they're gonna need to up the number of people working at Jersey Jack Pinball. The other thing Jersey Jack eventually has to do, they have to get this company to a place where they can run more than one game at a time. I mean, think about it right now. How many people out there don't want Godfather? How many people out there don't want another Guns N' Roses? They don't want Toy Story 4? But you probably could sell new in box Wizard of Oz machines. You could sell some new in box Pirates machines. You could probably sell some brand new dialed in machines. But unlike Stern Pinball that always goes back and continues to make titles for years and years and years while they still introduce new titles. Jersey Jack Pinball has failed to ever really do this. They've done second lines every one We all know the simple truth is this They sold more collector editions of The Godfather than they did of the limited edition game Now here the big problem for Jersey Jack Once they make all these collector editions of The Godfather what do they make after that There's not going to be more demand for the LE of the game. And once those LEs start selling for thousands less than they were originally, that's going to be the new price. So no one in their right mind is ever going to offer $12,000 for one. And what we're going to see happen, and trust me, this is going to happen, the collector's edition is not going to go up in value. And you're going to see some CE owners who are lukewarm on the game, trade the game and get like, you know, 13, 14, 12, 5 for the game. And then more people are going to watch that happen. And you're going to see people who aren't over the moon with the game want to get as much money as they can on the secondhand market. Now look, the reviews of Godfather by Godfather owners have been very positive. But what I'm not seeing, and I'm not seeing this on Pinside and I'm not seeing this by any of my pinball friends, I'm not seeing many people being converted over to Godfather. The majority of people who bought the Godfather, you bought it before you played it. And if you're that kind of consumer, then it doesn't even matter, right? You've shown these pinball companies you don't even need to play the game. You don't need to jump on it. You don't need to experience the pinball moments. You are in on the game. And I have a hard time believing that for the thousand people that have committed to

7:03

$15,000 that you see a pinball machine that is worth that much money. Look I've watched so much footage on the Godfather I haven't really played it much and I think the game is just okay. I think it looks flat I understand what they're doing with the code, but I really want Eric Menier one day to make a game that is based on a theme that he's super passionate about. He openly admits that he didn't really see these movies and hasn't been dreaming about making the Godfather. He wasn't dreaming about making Pirates of the Caribbean. He wasn't even a Guns N' Roses fan, but I think Slash made him passionate about the project. But I could just see Eric Menier sitting in a room. Jack Winari walks in and says, Hey man, I got your next game. And Eric perks up. He's like, what is it? Is it the matrix? Is it Sonic the hedgehog? What is it Jack? And he's like, it's the Godfather, a slow mob drama. And this is the thing is like, I just want to feel like one day we're going to get to Jersey Jack machines where it feels like the designers are making their dream themes. Do you feel this way when Pat Lawler makes Toy Story 4 or Willy Wonka? I'm not sure if Keith Elwin lovesGodzilla or not, but I'll tell you this, the guy is so damn talented that if I were to look at that game, I would say he nailed what Godzilla fans are looking for in a pinball experience. You know, that's my overarching question for all these designers over at JerseyJack. Like is Steve Ritchie the biggest Matrix fan? Is he an Elton John aficionado? I thought he was more like into Johnny Cash and a little bit more edgy music. I feel like all great pinball machines, the greatest ones out there, there has to be a level of passion by the designer that they capture in the thing they create. And I go through this in my business on a personal level. When I get an assignment that I'm not passionate about, you're not going to get my best ideas. But when you give me something that I'm super passionate about, you're going to get my greatest thinking imaginable. And as we spend this much money on freaking pinball machines, I think it's a real easy filter when we look at a game. How much of a designer's passion, how much do they understand the theme, how much did they integrate it into the game? How easy is it to detect that? You look at the big Lebowski, you could see that those Dutch guys are absolutely over the moon with that theme and they made the perfect theme integrated pin to showcase that. That's why everybody's excited about Dutch's next game because their next game is not going to be something that is assigned to them. They worked with Roger Sharp to go find a theme they really wanted to make and that's been the downfall over at American Pinball. They have not brought themes that they are super passionate about to life. They have not brought themes where the designer is just over the moon to create it. I mean look at Joe Balser's Hot Wheels. There's not even a loop or a jump. If this guy grew up playing with Hot Wheels, how did he end up making that machine? And look at Galactic Tank Force. I don't even know like whose passion is coming through in that game. I don't understand. The real passion in Galactic Tank Force was Dennis Nordman was passionate about making a pinball cabinet look like a tank. Like I was there when they talked about the origins of this game and the majority of the conversation was all about how he just wanted a pinball machine when you fold it down the backbox to look like a freaking tank and that doesn't make any sense to me. I don't know why you would invest in a thought like that. I don know why you would go down that road and I especially don know why you would bank your company future on an idea like that And let be honest everybody that idea is not working out Did you see what David Fix said recently Did you see what he said recently that this game is earning more on location in certain areas than the Foo Fighters Maybe if it's only David Fix inside the arcade and he unplugs all the Foo Fighter machines, but there is no way that this game on location is out earning the Foo Fighters. He also said he has 200 orders for Houdini. Well, that's interesting. He can't even make the orders for Galactic Tank Force and now he's taking us all the way back to a game that came out like six years ago? Like people need more Houdini machines new in box? And you ever notice how all of his numbers are always so exact? We got 2,000 orders for Galactic Tankforce. We have 200 orders for more Houdinis. Remember when he said the orders for Legends of Valhalla Standard Edition We're double that of the deluxe edition. Look, David Fix is a salesman. Every time he says something, I don't really believe it. And I think one of his biggest missteps was when he sold Galactic Tank Force. He told the people that ordered the $17,500 signature edition game that their games would be made first. Now, I have some friends who need to have their head examined. They ordered that game for $17,500 and they have absolutely no idea when they're getting their game. I don't understand. I don't understand. They have absolutely no ETA on when their games are arriving. And when you listen to distributors, they also have no idea when the games are arriving. Here's the BS part. David Fix, he's not shipping to customers games that were ordered, okay? Games that were ordered with nonrefundable deposits. And yet he's showing up at pinball shows and he's giving distributors I understand bringing games to shows, but isn't the point of bringing a game to a show The game should go to the back of the line. If you allow people to just go home with those games and cut the line, what is that saying to your customer base that gave you a nonrefundable deposit that should be next online to receive a game? I just don't like it. You know, I see this practice. It happens all the time. We also saw this with Scooby Doo. I would go to shows like TPF and there'd be like five Scooby Doos there and you could I know the argument is like these are show games and they're being beat on and so they're going to be used and so we want to just get something out of them. But man, imagine if you order Scooby Doo and your game's a year and a half away and you could just go to a pinball show, buy the game and have it that weekend. I don't know. Again, it's just not how I would do it. All right, so I was just watching this Topper for Godzilla. Zach put up a straight down the middle video showcasing the RGB LED lights which are very cheap, ladies and gentlemen. Ladies and gentlemen, if people think lighting is expensive, you need to go have your head examined. There is at most, and I mean this, at most, there is less than $50 in lighting costs in this $1,000 topper. It was also funny because the topper lights up in interesting ways. And look, it's not a terrible topper. It just looks like it should cost like 350 bucks. It's $1,000. But the funniest part of the video is like, and I'm not even sure that topper is supposed The light on Godzilla now if you put the topper next to the wall it creates a silhouette and a shadow of Godzilla real big on your wall like the bat signal but that's not a feature of the topper and watching Zack sell that as a feature of the topper as another reason why it justifies the thousand dollar price come on but I will say when I watch the video I mean it's much nicer than the stern n時候 é更 known real n Окá Mann zóan e sk tsunamiás e po Virusť Stanford vãi níaki�� exponentiallyá àon, Þ proposivá habrá que revealedatave prest 沒有 E Saygýmère det overly r European outhwish en s obstinátě å ragánsa I'm not a fan of pinball, but I'm a fan of the game. I love the game so much and I also do love toppers. So if you love toppers and you love certain pinball machines and this is the official topper, are you gonna say no? Are you gonna say this is where I draw the line? And I'm just saying, like, just make yourselves happy. Like, if the topper makes you happy, go get it. If you're not gonna get the topper and it angers you, don't be angry about it. Just go through life and don't own it. is maintaining interpretative I understand that Stern Pinball is fleecing us, but all they do is fleece us. If you think a Stern premium and a Stern LE are worth what we're paying, these games are probably only costing Stern four to $5,000 in material and labor costs to make each game. All right so just do the math on that They are making more money on a game like Foo Fighters LE than they ever have before on a pinball machine But we not going to win this war people We not going to win this battle It is never going to go in the other direction The only silver lining in all of this is the games have to be amazing or we are just going to avoid them like GodfatherLE And once you get above $10,000 you better be giving me something magical that I want to bolt to my game room floor. And I love that because it's really fun, it's really fun sitting on the sidelines. I've been sitting on the pinball purchasing sidelines now for the last three months and you know what I've seen? I've seen my checking account go up, go up, go up, go up, go up. Now I can go buy any pinball machine I want easily and not feel it in my checking account simply because I waited. But if I bought all of these machines I would probably have more of a buyer's remorse feeling knowing that I don't need to have every single new game when it comes out. Speaking of buyer's remorse, there may be some people out there right now having buyer's remorse that they did not buy James Bond Limited Edition. Have you seen this new James Bond code? I mean there is a lot in this .92 code dump. And this game is finally starting to really come alive. The owners are celebrating this code in the streets. I still think it's a little premature to say the game is great. There are still things people want to see in this game. They want to see video of the Bond girls. If you don't have video of the Bond girls for this demographic Stern, what are you doing? All these guys owning this machine, they want to see those beautiful Bond girls more than these ugly henchmen. I don't know if they're going to do it, you know. I don't know if Stern's going to go woke on this one and not have some seductive scenes from all those Bond girls. And that's part of what makes James Bond so fun and especially watching it so many years later. You watch these Sean Connery James Bond films and you're like, oh, there's no way they would make this game today. There's no way. But Bond's interaction with the women is really half of the reason why people love the franchise. And I really hope we get more of that into the game. But look, Stern is throwing a lot at this game. But I also was in the thread and I saw people be like, oh, if there ever was a time to go get a www.оминаble.co.uk I'm going to be re-running more Godzilla premiums, star wars premiums, food fighter premiums, you know, like all these premium machines are going to start to make their way out in the world. And I think what we're going to see sometime this year is we're going to see an oversaturation of premiums in the world. And I worry about premium buyers, I really do because I think at $10,000, the smarter thing you can do is get your hands on an LE, spend $3,000 more, but your game will hold value much more than it will with a premium. There's just going to be so many of them out in the world. The big question is, is Stern going to go to San Diego Comic-Con and are they going to tease or announce Venom? I don't think they're going to do it at that ComicCon because here's why. The factory change is happening sometime in August. So we know the game is not going to be on the line in the old factory. So I think they're probably going to reveal the next game sometime in September, October. They're going to get the new factory up and running. And then the other big rumor is this people. Because they're going to have this new factory with all of this manufacturing capability and the volume is going to go through the roof. That Stern Pinball is going to celebrate this new factory by making a vault edition of a game. And if you were to do a short list of which games do people want to see vaulted, I think you see games like Tron, I think you see games like Ghostbusters, and I think you see games like Metallica. Will this happen? Will we see Venom and a Vault to end out the year? I think there's a very good chance of both of those things happening. I'm going to be watching more and more people get on board. It's going to be Keith Elwin Jaws. And I don't know why people are like, well, I hope they get those assets from the movie. Come on. It's going to be just like Jurassic Park. They're not going to have the movie clips. They're going to make an all original Jaws adventure that uses the music, uses some of the iconic call outs and phrases, but it is not going to be the movie up on the LCD screen. There's no way. I hope I'm wrong. I really do. I hope I'm wrong. But there's no way that's gonna happen. Everybody, you can tell I am kind of losing my voice. I love doing this podcast. It's usually not as physically taxing on me as it is right now. But thank you so much for being a member of the Kaneda Club. Don't pay attention to all the drama. I'm not a bad guy. I'm just a pinball podcaster trying to make his way through the world. Everybody, we'll talk to you soon. Have a great day.