Episode 738: "Kaneda's Toy Stoy LE Fundraiser!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 22s·analyzed·Nov 3, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Toy Story LE secondary market collapse signals broader pinball pricing bubble and economic downturn.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the collapsing secondary market for Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story Limited Edition, arguing the game is overpriced at $10,200+ with no buyers, forced down by continuous production. He analyzes three-tier pricing models across manufacturers (Stern, Spooky, American Pinball), critiques their effectiveness, and warns of an impending market correction driven by economic pressures and inventory oversaturation.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Pinball is still producing Toy Story Limited Editions daily while Collector's Editions are delayed waiting for mirrored backglasses
high confidence · Kaneda (host), describing JJP production status, framed as 'a scoop'
Toy Story LE will inevitably drop from $10,200 to $9,500, then $9,000 without JJP announcing production end
medium confidence · Kaneda's price prediction based on market demand analysis and comparison to Guns N' Roses launch pricing
Guns N' Roses launched at $9,500 and is a better game than Toy Story
medium confidence · Kaneda's comparative valuation
American Pinball's three-tier model fails because variants lack distinct art packages or mechanical differences
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of American Pinball strategy vs. Stern's approach
Stern's Premium Editions cost $10,560 with tax in New York State and have unlimited production, making them poor investments
high confidence · Kaneda's pricing calculation and market analysis
Haggis Pinball has cash flow issues requiring full payment 3 months in advance of production
medium confidence · Kaneda's interpretation of Haggis's prepayment requirement and production timeline
Rick and Morty by Spooky Pinball (750 units) is appreciating because the theme is popular, unlike other Spooky games
medium confidence · Kaneda's analysis of Spooky game secondary market performance
The pinball market is heading toward a crash due to economic downturn, inventory oversaturation, and inflated pricing
medium confidence · Kaneda's economic outlook and market forecast
Games like Deadpool, Stranger Things, and The Munsters are selling for over $15,000 used despite launching at half that price
high confidence · Kaneda's Pinside marketplace observation

Notable Quotes

“Nobody wants to buy this game from one of the dudes who's one of the most reputable guys in the entire hobby.”
Kaneda @ ~04:30 — Highlights the severity of Toy Story LE's market rejection despite seller credibility
“The Games are going to keep going down in value every single week and it's sort of like catching a falling knife.”
Kaneda @ ~06:00 — Vivid metaphor for deteriorating secondary market value
“There's only one way for Jersey Jack Pinball to keep these prices somewhat stable. They need to announce they're done making Louis Toy Stories.”
Kaneda @ ~08:00 — Identifies production cessation as sole stabilizing mechanism, implies JJP won't act
“It's the worst time to invest in new in box pinball machines. And again, nobody wants to say this to you. Absolutely. I'm the bad guy.”
Kaneda @ ~37:00 — Positions himself as contrarian voice on market timing
“They have a cash flow issue. Why else would they need your money three months in advance to make a machine?”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Infers Haggis Pinball's financial health from prepayment structure
“Spooky Pinball's always figured out a way to benefit Spooky Pinball. But in the long run, in the long run, Spooky Pinball's The Games will always benefit them, but they will always come at a cost to the consumer.”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Critique of Spooky's business model prioritizing manufacturer over consumer value
“This market is so inflated. It is so overpriced right now.”
Kaneda @ ~30:00 — Core thesis statement on market valuation
“You're going to invest your money in James Bond James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition), which might make you a grand or two. It might not lose you money, but really, is that the smartest thing to buy?”
Kaneda @ ~25:00 — Questions ROI of pinball vs. alternative investments (stocks, tech)

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Haggis Pinballcompany Greg Boneperson Ed Robertsonperson

Signals

$
market_signal: Toy Story LE stuck at $10,200+ with no buyers despite being sold by reputable seller; expected to cascade down to $9,500-$9,000 due to continuous production
high · Multiple listings at $10,200 with no movement; Kaneda cites thread speculation at $9,000-$9,500 price points; continuous JJP production flooding market
?
product_concern: Jersey Jack Pinball continuing daily Toy Story LE production while Collector's Editions delayed; flooding market with units that cannot command pricing
high · Kaneda states 'The Games are not even selling for $10,200' and 'They're flooding more The Games into the marketplace'
?
business_signal: Three-tier model ineffective outside Stern/Spooky; American Pinball's implementation lacks differentiation; creates value confusion and market confusion
medium · Kaneda compares American Pinball's three-tier model (no art, no mechanical differences) unfavorably to Stern's distinct editions; notes David Fix copying without understanding
?
business_signal: Haggis Pinball requiring full payment 3+ months in advance; signals potential cash flow issues despite successful shipments
medium · Kaneda: 'Why else would they need your money three months in advance to make a machine? It signals a cash flow issue'
~
sentiment_shift: Community beginning to question pinball as investment; users commenting lower price thresholds on secondary market; shift toward wait-and-see approach
medium · Thread comments cited: 'at 9000 I'm a buyer or 9500 I might consider it'; no buyers at current prices despite seller reputation

Topics

Secondary market pricing and depreciationprimaryJersey Jack Pinball production and inventory strategyprimaryThree-tier pricing models across manufacturersprimaryMarket correction and economic downturn impact on pinballprimaryHaggis Pinball cash flow and production capacitysecondaryPinball as investment vs. alternative assetssecondarySpooky Pinball business model and consumer valuesecondaryPinside marketplace trends and pricingmentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Kaneda is highly critical of current market conditions, manufacturer pricing strategies, and industry health. He adopts a contrarian, bearish stance warning of collapse. However, tone is analytical rather than hostile, with some humor and camaraderie (e.g., praising Ed Robertson). Negativity is directed at market dynamics and company decisions, not people.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.052

domains areниеates non trailer All of these people listing their toy story le's for ten thousand two hundred dollars and I'm gonna give them two hundred and one dollars so they can list toy story le for nine thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine dollars what is it with this game what is it with this game when people are afraid to actually drop the price below ten thousand dollars we're gonna talk about that We're also going to talk about an email I got from Peter G asking if I think the three tiered model is dead in pinball or dead for everyone else but Stern pinball. But let's start with this toy story Ellie. But before I get there, I forgot something. Ed Ed Robertson hit me up. Now Ed reminded me on the show before the last show, I said something during the end of the show that as I was speaking, I said, Ed, I know you're about to text me right now to hang it up. You're not having fun anymore. And that's all he texted me. So I forgot I said that and he reminded me yesterday. He said, Chris, I simply texted you what you said I was going to text you. Ed, I love you. I love that I have you fact checking Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, but it's super awesome that we got people like Ed Ed Robertson as members of the Kaneda Club. People like Jack Danger, members of the Kaneda Club. Okay, everybody, are you ready? Let's talk about this game. What price do you think Toy Story LE will sell for in the near future? So we've got this game now listed at ten thousand two hundred dollars One of them is listed by Greg bone. One of them is listed by another individual I just want to say I don't have a problem with Greg listing this game Like it's weird that thread that he's listing this game on for sale He got into it with Flinney bus and it's just like don't even listen to what Flinney bus is saying The real story here is not who's selling this game and whether or not he got preferential treatment from Zack. That's not the story. The story here is nobody wants it. Nobody wants to buy this game from one of the dudes who's one of the most reputable guys in the entire hobby. And so let's talk about at what price do we think a Toy Story LE will sell. See, here's the problem. Here's the problem. It's at $10,200 right now and nobody wants it. But here's the real problem. There are The game is still making more of these games every single day. You know what's on the line right now at JJP? It's not even Toy Story Collector's Editions, it's more Toy Story LEs. The reason why the CEs are delayed is they're waiting on the mirrored backglasses for the CE machines. There's a scoop coming at you from Kaneda, but here's the thing. They're flooding more games into the marketplace and the games are not even selling for $10,200. So that means these games are going to be The game is going to keep going down in value every single week and it's sort of like catching a falling knife and we're seeing people in like the threads say well at 9000 I'm a buyer or 9500 I might consider it. Here's what I think is going on with this game. The problem is when you have a game that's just not clicking with people when you have a game that people aren't falling in love with it doesn't really have much value at all and the only way to justify buyingугli P представляltek 전 dank Helvetica Co let ошибку liked pet girlfriend viens rememberコ firearms Apostrof myself A boy from manufactury It tells Me Happy So where is the real starting point? Do you remember when Guns N' Roses LE came out? How much was Guns N' Roses LE? It was $9500 and it's a better game than Toy Story 4. And that the issue right now is this game is sliding simply by market demand It is sliding back down to where Jersey Jack games need to be They priced it all wrong funny things you make fun of Bh normally the GAM T We had one meal called empan beep but unfortunately, it was it was just so that I do valves transmit text tore is visible in Potter healthcare Remotely muddied to stored to 10 The game is currently on sale for $999. When that happens, the next stop for this thing is going to be $9,500. The next stop is going to be $9,000. I am telling you right now, there's only one way for Jersey Jack Pinball to keep these prices somewhat stable. They need to announce they're done making Toy Stories and they're not making any more. That is the only way they are going to stabilize the price on this game and they're not going to do it. There's too much ego. There's too much pride. There's probably also just too much imamatović, transit force of science, Gler kgl imitation계 김� 1971, Dr route boardil rolling by вин manu drainay justice necklaceń and their marketing approach after stern pinball. Let's think about how stern makes the three tier model work. Each game has a different art package. Now let's look at the three tier model over at American Pinball. Do they have a different art package for the three different models of the game? No. Are the games any different mechanically? No. American Pinball's three tiered model is absolutely ludicrous. Once again, it shows that American Pinball doesn't really know what they're doing. enough demand for a game like Legends of Valhalla to have a three-tier model of the game and it's just David Fix sort of looking at what Stern's doing and say hey we can do it too but they're doing it all wrong let's look at spooky Pinball and their three-tier model they offer you a chance to get the collector's edition the bloodsucker edition and the standard edition of the game but the spooky model is also sort of wonky and everyone is shooting themselves in the foot on the value It is also the most expensive and the most collectible. The most collectible should be also the rarest. Stern has always made the least amount of LEs out of the three models that they offer. So spooky does it all weird. Spooky is kind of smart though. Think about how smart Spooky's move was when they did it. All the pinball babies crying that they couldn't get their Stern LE and Spooky was like, hey, you want the LE version of our game? We're going to make as many of them as people want and then we'll move on to the next version. Like we'll make as many of the nicest version as people want. Well, they did it. They were successful. And guess what? Now it's not limited. Now it's not rare. Now it's not hard to get. So look, Spooky's always figured out a way to benefit Spooky. But in the long run, in the long run, Spooky's All the games that are in the game will always benefit them, but they will always come at a cost to the consumer. We are not seeing spooky games go up in value other than Rick and Morty because that theme is so damn popular and in hindsight everyone is kicking themselves they didn't just order a Rick and Morty, put it in a box and wait a few years because it's one of the hottest franchises in the world and there's only 750 of those games ever because of the most boneheaded move by spooky marketing. Spooky Luke is not a huge fan of Kaneda Luke, come on, I love you guys, I just want you guys to take some of my advice every now and then and hedge multibob baby, hedge multibob. Wow, it's Thursday, I'm pretty hyped up on this show. So look, the three-tier model is not dead for Stern. It's not gonna be dead for spooky because the way spooky does it, it's to their benefit. It not gonna work for American pinball It wouldn work for multi Morphic It wouldn work for Dutch Pinball It wouldn work for Haggis Pinball Let talk about Haggis for a minute Damien went on the record and he said he was going to make all of the Fathom Mermaid editions by the end of the year So do you think over the next two months that Haggis Pinball is going to have made 250 Mermaid editions I go I go into the thread like every week or so just to see what the vibe is and more and more people are being asked to pay in full. The going timeframe between paying in full and getting your games is at least eight weeks. Some people have waited much longer than eight weeks. But look, there's a lot of confidence in them because games are shipping. Now look, this is not about whether or not they can make the product, but I still think I think there are some Zac Stark realities about the long term viability of a company that just won't be transparent. Because if they need money this far in advance, what does that signal? It signals this. They have a cash flow issue. Why else would they need your money three months in advance to make a machine? I think everybody that orders this game is going to get it. I think they're still going to be making fathoms into the end of next year because after the mermaid editions, they have to make all the other editions they sold. I think they sold over 500 of these games. They can't make 250 in a year. We know that. I also think they're not going to be any more transparent. I think we are going to head into a global recession. And I think I think those people who bought series tickets that enables them to the next four to five titles of Haggis Pinball, there is no way this company is going to get to another two or three titles over the next two or three years. So you're going to be what? Waitinging five years to get your games. I think it's a wake up call. I think pinball is about to go through a very interesting year. I think with where the prices are at, where used game prices are at, and where your checking account is at as more and more people are going to run into like harsh 2019 Fin systemic portrait Contestץ undefined It's coming, people. I know that all of you out there are not just high on the hog. I know a lot of us out there rely on our paychecks, we rely on our investments, we rely on the economy going north, not south as a means to buy pinball machines. Look, I have always said this. I think people buy pinball machines with their excess money, but it's also a psychological thing even though I'm not going to use my investments or my savings to buy a James Bond or a guns and The Investments losing six figures I might say to myself well now's not a good time to buy a pinball machine because what I'm gonna do With my cash now is simply this I'm gonna wait for all of these stocks and all this other stuff to go on sale And that's what I'm gonna buy I've always said this to people if you bought Tesla ten years ago if you put $10,000 into Tesla stock it was worth The game is worth $1.8 million at the height. And as I look at companies like Amazon and Meta and Netflix and all of these major tech companies that are not going away, go look at their stock prices. It's like 75% off what they were a year or two ago. And so where are you going to put your money? You're going to invest your money in James Bond LE, which might make you a grand or two. It might not lose you money, but really, is that the smartest thing to buy? And I think as we head towards this period, if you're an intelligent person, The Gobling up twelve to fifteen thousand dollar pinball machines now speaking of twelve to fifteen thousand dollar pinball machines I went on pin side today, and I looked at the marketplace for games that were over $15,000 a couple years ago There would have been maybe just one or two games for sale for over $15,000 do me a favor go look at the pin side marketplace over highly anyway though early game code crian for sure's and will love Ashley P mereka three games Unknown All of them are games that are over 15k They are like Deadpool Stranger Things and Munsters They are games where every single one of these games all of these games were half that price when they came out and they sat in box most of those games And that's the thing. It's like this market is so inflated. It is so overpriced right now. Out Pinball, WPPRbrevi Cart monsieur Jones thieves BiteFog!! Out Pinball, We liberate all that we do for people compt grasses! The Do what makes you happy? I would never tell you not to buy something you do you everybody you do you if this makes you happy and Dropping fifteen thousand dollars on a pinball machine makes you happy by all means don't let Canada stop you from this happiness But I was doing the following I asked myself how much is a stern premium if I buy it in New York State? So let's put this into the calculator right now a stern premium without shipping. This is just if I want to buy it It's $9,700. If I include sales tax, a stern premium cost me $10,560 for a stern premium, a machine they will make for years to come, a machine that won't be complete for at least a year or two, a machine in which they're going to make an unlimited amount of them. People have forgotten this. Premiums have no limit. They will make these premiums for years. There will be thousands of these premiums in the marketplace. Let me add shipping. Let me add $400hui and it's just gonna go south in price and we're not used to this everybody remembers when a stern premium was seventy five hundred you'd buy it for seventy five hundred and usually it stayed around there you might lose a few hundred bucks but you put a few hundred plays on it and you got your money's worth now you're gonna buy it for eleven thousand dollars okay what's it gonna be worth used it's not gonna stay near eleven it's probably gonna slide down to nine eighty five hundred are you gonna put twenty five hundred plays on the game to get your money out of it and this is the other part like all All these new games are going to keep coming. This market is going to be so oversaturated with such expensive inventory, it's all going to just crash into the wall at once and guess who's going to be there to sort of laugh as I'm sipping my cognac wearing my Gucci slides being like, I told you guys, just wait. This is like the worst time to invest in new in box pinball machines. And again, nobody wants to say this to you. Absolutely. I'm the bad guy. It's also the worst time to buy used Out Pinball, Hey! All the pinball and you know it and that's why we got the twippies everybody have a great Thursday will talk to you soon.