Episode 860: "Why Elton John Will Win Expo"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·17m 59s·analyzed·Oct 17, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Elton John wins Expo; criticizes Labyrinth hype, Alien compromises, and FOMO buying culture.

Summary

Kaneda delivers a passionate critique of recent pinball releases and expo announcements, arguing that Jersey Jack's Elton John will dominate Pinball Expo while criticizing the Labyrinth hype, the Alien Ellen Ripley edition's compromises, and Stern's reissue strategy. He warns buyers against FOMO-driven pre-orders without playing machines first and predicts that upcoming releases like Jaws will devalue current machines.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack's Elton John will win Pinball Expo and dominate other releases at the show
medium confidence · Kaneda, multiple declarations throughout the episode
Labyrinth pre-orders claiming to be in the 600+ range were not actually 500+ direct sales in two days; most allocations go to distributors (only ~150 direct)
medium confidence · Kaneda's interpretation of American Pinball's business model and allocation strategy
The Alien Ellen Ripley edition's translite does not clearly show Ellen Ripley's face, suggesting licensing limitations on her likeness
high confidence · Kaneda's visual analysis of released promotional images
Labyrinth is a 'C theme at best' for the pinball buying demographic and will depreciate significantly once production ramps up, similar to Scooby-Doo
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion on secondary market pricing trends
Stern's recent Elvira reissues are just artwork/color changes on existing premiums being charged as new LEs at inflated prices
medium confidence · Kaneda's criticism of Stern's release strategy
Jaws is coming soon and will compete heavily with Labyrinth, Elton John, and current releases
high confidence · Kaneda references Jaws multiple times as an upcoming competitive threat
Bowen Kerins is an amazing player and their Labyrinth stream walkthrough was valuable but marred by poor lighting/dark venue presentation
high confidence · Kaneda's direct commentary on the stream quality and Bowen's skill
Steve Ritchie's Elton John machine will work exceptionally well with Jersey Jack's atmospheric rainbow lighting and design philosophy
medium confidence · Kaneda's design analysis comparing Elton John to previous JJP releases

Notable Quotes

“I'm going to talk about that stream. And I've seen the fact that they're gonna make another pinball machine in which the main character from the movie is not in the freaking game.”
Kaneda @ early — Core complaint about the Alien Ellen Ripley edition not featuring the character prominently
“Now, why would you buy any of these games until you play the damn machines?”
Kaneda @ mid-early — Central argument against FOMO-driven pre-orders without hands-on play
“They did not sell 500 and something of these games in two days, people. They absolutely did not. They are going to allocate most of these games to distributors. They're only selling a hundred and fifty of them directly.”
Kaneda @ mid — Claim about Labyrinth allocation strategy and direct sales numbers
“Elton John's gonna win. Elton John's gonna be the game people start fawning over. We're all gonna eat crow.”
Kaneda @ late-mid — Primary prediction that anchors the entire episode thesis
“I would not fall for it. It's so stupid what they're doing and we're not that dumb. Ladies and gentlemen, show them that we're not that dumb.”
Kaneda @ mid-late — Accusation that Stern is manipulating the market with reissue strategy
“Go back on Pinside. Go to all the threads that say, what theme do you want to see in pinball? Show me where people said Labyrinth and I will give you free membership to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast.”
Kaneda @ mid — Challenge to validate Labyrinth's popularity via community demand history
“They know that there is a great white shark about to gobble up everything in pinball and if you just wait the good news is you'll be able to get all of these older games.”
Kaneda @ final — Metaphor for Jaws' anticipated market impact
“Elton John, I'm telling you, don't sleep on this. Disco balls and sequins and glasses and some of the most high energy music.”

Entities

Kanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Pinball Brotherscompany Steve Ritchieperson Bowen Kerinsperson

Signals

?
rumor_hype: Kaneda makes confident prediction that Jersey Jack's Elton John will win Pinball Expo over Labyrinth, Alien Ellen Ripley, and other releases
medium · Multiple declarations: 'Elton John is gonna win Pinball Expo', 'It's going to clean the floor with all of these other games', 'Is Kaneda going to be right? Is he going to be wrong?'
~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda identifies a shift in community behavior toward FOMO-driven pre-orders without hands-on play, contrasting what he views as informed patience with desperate buying
high · Extended critique of pre-order culture: 'Why would you order it right now? It's nonrefundable deposit. You couldn't wait three freaking days?'
$
market_signal: Kaneda predicts Labyrinth will depreciate significantly once production ramps, using Scooby-Doo as precedent (1500+ price drops)
medium · Scooby-Doo comparison: 'Each of them you can knock 1500 bucks off the price. And I'm just saying this people, be patient.'
?
product_concern: Kaneda expresses concern that Alien Ellen Ripley edition does not clearly show Ellen Ripley's face on translite, indicating possible licensing/likeness limitations
high · Visual analysis: 'she's at a weird angle and you can't see her face... Does this mean that Pinball Brothers did not get her likeness into the game?'
?
product_concern: Kaneda criticizes Labyrinth for launching with incomplete code while accepting non-refundable deposits
medium · 'Coming out early with a nonrefundable deposit where the code is not complete'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.054

0:00

Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Now look, this is going to be a little bit of a short show, so I got to get to work. So if you join the Raise the Roof Club or the Omokase Club, I'm going to give you an extra big shout out on the next episode, but I'm just going to go off on a little bit of a Kaneda rant. And I'm gonna make a declaration right now. Jersey Jack Pinball's Elton John is gonna win Pinball Expo. We now know what's coming to the show. We've seen Alien Pinball. We've seen the Ellen Ripley edition that doesn't actually show you Ellen Ripley's face. I mean, what's up with this? We've seen Labyrinth. We've seen Bo and Karen stream the game for 17 minutes. I'm gonna talk about that stream. And we've seen the fact that they're gonna make another pinball machine in which the main character from the movie is not in the freaking game. We're just supposed to forget all of this. We're supposed to just go with it. I'm here to tell you right now I'll tell you what's gonna be in Elton John pinball freaking Elton John And you know look this guy sold 300 million albums and here we are as a community saying this game is gonna be dead on Arrival and yet people are welcoming a theme like their labyrinth with open arms. Are you kidding me? Have you been in this labyrinth hype thread? I get it These people have ordered the game and so they want to see what they want to see but I'm just gonna say this right now Now, why would you buy any of these games until you play the damn machines? And I'm seeing people who are going to Pinball Expo. They're going to be at the show and they've already placed an order on the freaking labyrinth. What is this? Is this what pinball positivity is now? You have to be ignorant and you have to just throw money at stuff before you actually play the damn game. I'm not saying don't order the game, but if you're going to be at a show in three days In which you can jump on the machine, why would you order it right now? It's nonrefundable deposit. You couldn't wait three freaking days just to make sure your money is safe. And if history has shown us anything, people, are you seriously thinking that labyrinth pinball, a C theme at best for this pinball buying demographic, do you seriously think this pinball machine is going to go up in value once they start cranking them off the line? Scooby-Doo is a much more mainstream popular theme than this game. And look at where the Scooby-Doo prices are when Spooky Pinball made a thousand of them. Each of them you can knock 1500 bucks off the price. And I'm just saying this people, be patient. What's happened to this community? Now look, I think most of us out there are patient. I think most of us out there are 40 to 60 year old men. And when you think back to the 80s property that you love, that you can't wait to see into pinball format, The Now let me talk about this stream real quick. Bowen Cairns is an amazing player. Watchinging him walk you through the game is a really great moment in pinball. So I had a good time seeing her show us what's in this labyrinth pinball machine, but the lighting was terrible. Did you see the colors in this game? I mean it's already a dark brown game and they bring it down to this like exclusive pinball club in this dark basement looking place and then they stream the game. The game and again, it's marketing people. This is the first time most people are going to see this game and they're going to see the gameplay of the game. And so you have to ask yourself, did what you see in that stream yesterday, did that make you super duper excited to get the game? Did it make the game visually pop? I don't know. Like, you know, I've just got to be honest. See, this is what's hard about being Kaneda in Kaneda Spinball Podcast is I have friends who are associated with this game and they've been talking to me and they've been telling me to keep an I've been keeping an open mind and I saw the teaser campaign for this game. I saw the trailer for this game. I've now seen the Bowen Cairns like tutorial on how to get through the game. I've now seen the David Bowie multi ball sections of this game. I've seen goblin after goblin after goblin after goblin. And at what point am I allowed to absorb everything in this game? And of course I'm going to play this game, but I'm telling you right now, I don't even need to play this game. I will never buy a labyrinth pinball machine because it not a theme for me It just not a theme for me and that is all right But I just do highly question how many people out there this is a legitimate pinball theme for when you talking another for the topper A 12,000 dollar machine and I have to question if I'm seeing a machine that's got

6:38

I can't wait to interact with more of those goblins from 1986's Jim Henson's Labyrinth. I really can't wait to see David Bowie's Bulge one more time in my life and heck I'm willing to pay $12,000 for that Bulge. And that's just my thing. It's like I'm gonna call it. Like I'm gonna call it. If Stern Pinball made this game, all of you would be destroying them. But for some reason, if you're a boutique pinball company, it doesn't matter what you do. You're always going to be welcomed with open arms because you're bringing something new into the pinball world. And look, this is the game that David Van Es wanted to make. This is the same problem that Jack Winari had with The Godfather. This is what David wanted. Godfather is what Jack wanted. These are not themes that were designed with the pinball buying community in mind. Now look, Labyrinth isn't a theme with no fandom. I was on Facebook and there are 600,000 fans on Labyrinth's main Facebook group. Right? 600,000 people. Okay, so you're thinking to yourself, wow, they're only making 1,100 and there's 600,000 active fans on this Facebook group. I don't know if they're all active. Now from there, how many of those people have $11,000 burning a hole in their pocket? How many of those people also would want to spend that money on a pinball machine? And then the number gets smaller and smaller and smaller. And here's the other thing, ladies and gentlemen, don't fall for the FOMO BS on that hype thread. I'm already seeing it yesterday. Oh, I ordered the machine directly and I'm order number 643. They did not sell 500 and something of these games in two days, people. They absolutely did not. They are going to allocate most of these games to distributors. They're only selling a hundred and fifty of them directly. Another nine hundred and fifty of these games have to be allocated to distributors. Did you hear what they said that they wanted to bring more games to Expo but there was a problem with the parts supplier so they couldn't bring more games. Did anyone catch that? That manufacturing always finds ways to throw a little wrinkle into everybody's plans. Now look, I think they're going to make these games. The question is how many can they make every single week? Is the line going to be running smoothly from now until they make all 1100 I don know you don know and that why I just saying wait and see and mark my words right now After we see jaws and after we see what I know is coming out and after other games come out into the pinball world you going to be able to get labyrinth for a lot less than And that all I saying That all I saying people I wish this was more of a theme that spoke to me If this was blood sport I would have bought it If this was the last starfighter I would have bought it There are a lot of other niche themes from the 80s that I would have bought. I would have bought Breakfast Club. I would have boughtChristmas Vacation. There are so many other movies that I have more of a connection to. I would rather have had Napoleon Dynamite. Like if you're going to make something a little culty, a little off-center, sure, there's a lot of things you can make. But Labyrinth, again, go back on Pinside. Go to all the threads that say, what theme do you want to see in pinball? Show me where people said labyrinth and I will give you free membership to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Alright, so let's go on to this alien Ellen Ripley edition of the game. Can you tell I'm a little worked up today? Because this is another bait and Switch moment in pinball. They told us, oh, we're going to put Ellen Ripley into the machine. And we're going to change the translate and she's going to be on the freaking cabinet and she's going to be on the playfield. and all of a sudden you're gonna get the main character from this movie that you've been wanting to see for years and then we see this really awkward translate where she's in the power loader but she's at a weird angle and you can't see her face you know which game you can see her face in Ghostbusters so does this mean that the pinball brothers did not did they not get her likeness into the game so what does this mean are they even gonna get Sigourney's voice from the movie are we gonna see This is the only time we're going to get any of the clips of her from the movie. If this is an indication of what we're going to get in the Ellen Ripley edition of Alien, then I don't think we're going to get anything even remotely close to what we wanted in the game. Everybody, I know the game is $8,000 and people are like, well, we should be celebrating the fact that they are coming out with an $8,000 pinball machine that they've been making for like five, six years, and they told us they were going to get the main character into it. I'm just here to tell you right now, has everybody forgotten? Did everybody forget that Stern LEs were like $8,000 just a few years ago? Has everyone forgotten these things? We're just supposed to pretend like $10,000 is the new benchmark for anyone that makes any effort in pinball. Now look, this Ellen Ripley edition, I get it. I'm glad the price is not that expensive. I mean, you can get an Ellen Ripley edition of Alien, think about this, just from a theme level alone. http://www.발p sesdindoseedpiped0.blogspot.com,- addictive.com but I am sorry for any mistakes at the last minute. http://www.blogspot.com,-cartesian.lessяти де responsließdotanthula.thurbing.com meinerl 808-65308,-F dehydratedat nen�forcevideos farmers director있y-下面 x-, You're going to be the pinball podcast. They tell you to go listen to, to hear how exciting pinball is. You're going to come here to get the damn truth. You're going to come here to get a point of view that no one else shares. I just don't get it. I'm so tired of these pinball compromises. And that leads me to my final point today. Elton John is going to win Expo. It's not just going to win Expo. It's going to clean the floor with all of these other games. We've already seen Elvira in 15 different trims. Who cares? Wow. Stern went back to its computers and changed the colors to black and white. and now they wanna charge us another $5,000 than we used to have to spend on that premium. It's just another run of premiums with new stickers and they're calling it in LE. They did the same thing with Jurassic Park. Why do you think all those Elviras that were ordered, remember when people were waiting forever like two years for Elvira? Well, Stern got all their parts into the factory and look what they're doing now. Once the orders died off, they probably have parts to make another 600 and instead of just making premiums, They're simply changing the artwork, gonna make a new LE and charge us all this money and we're not gonna fall for it. I would not fall for it. It's so stupid what they're doing and we're not that dumb. Ladies and gentlemen, show them that we're not that dumb. So that's not gonna win over Expo. The Ellen Ripley edition that does not feature Ellen Ripley is not gonna win over Expo Labyrinth is not gonna win over Expo because eventually all you grown men are going to wake up and realize that your dreams don consist of goblins trying to get through a maze to see David Bowie's bulge, so you're going to wake up to that reality and then everyone's going to wake up and realize we've been talking smack about one of the most successful musical artists of all time, a man that has sold 300 million albums, a man that has music that rocks out that all of you know that even if you don't like it, you probably find The end of the world. I'm Steve Richie. I love that photo they just dropped of Steve Richie looking really cranky. He looks really upset. He looks like he's been reading everything Kaneda's been saying about his next Elton John game. And I'm going to tell you right now, Steve, I got your back this time, brother. I think Steve Richie's going to drop a bomb on the pinball world. I think Steve Richie knows he had to make a name for himself. I think the King realizes his throne was under attack that Keith Elwin is now on his throne. And I think Steve Richie and Jersey Jack Pinball, this is it. It really is it. And knowing what we know now about what's going to be at this show, tell me what are you excited about? What are you really excited about right now? We've now seen all there is to see about the labyrinth. And look, it's another game where like the code is not even nearly complete. Great. Coming out early with a nonrefundable deposit where the code is not complete. Alien Pinball, a game we've seen forever and a day and I don't care how many different versions of that game you make, it's still not the best shooting game. It's a cool game but it's always going to be tainted and everybody's waiting to see what the Pinball Brothers can do outside of games that were made by Andrew Highway and so here we are. This is it. There's no other surprises. It's not going to be Pinball Adventures. It's not going to be Ninja Eclipse from Turner Pinball. This is it. I'm telling you right now, I'm making a prediction. Elton John's gonna win. Elton John's gonna be the game people start fawning over. We're all gonna eat crow. We're all gonna eat crow. I'm gonna eat crow. You're gonna eat crow. We're all gonna be like, oh my gosh, look at what's in this pinball machine. It has me excited. It's the last great hope of Pinball Expo. It really is. It really is. And think about Jersey Jack with all of their rainbow lights and all of their crazy atmospheric stuff. What's one theme where all of that Skittles rainbow craziness would work well? It would work well with Elton John. It doesn't work in Godfather. It worked in Guns N' Roses. Toy Story didn't make any sense. Everything was just always lit up. But Elton John, I'm telling you, don't sleep on this. Disco balls and sequins, glasses and some of the most high energy music. People, I'm telling you right now, is Kaneda going to be right? Is he going to be wrong? But that's it. I'm predicting it right now. Elton John wins Expo. We're all going to be clapping for Steve Richie and we're going to be so happy that he has one final juggernaut in his bag of tricks. Everybody, I love you guys. Be good. I got to run to work. And I'm just imploring each and every one of you, play all of these games. You don't have to order anything until you get enough time on the machine. When you go into all these threads and you see all these Facebook posts by all of these distros, can you just feel the desperation? any of these districts have to sell all of this product immediately and that's the scary part is they know they have to sell the labyrinth deposits right now because jaws is calming they have to sell alton john right now because jaws is coming they have to sell these alvarez right now because jaws iscoming they know that there is a great white shark about to gobble up everything in pinball and if you just wait the good news is you'll be able to get all of these older games Thank you for watching. Please consider subscribing, liking and posit Chengtусов on Also On. An anthropưng I machine with Par of a