claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030
Don analyzes major pinball market corrections, leaked Stern 'Ranger' code name, and secondary market fire sales.
Stern removed MAP pricing restrictions on Led Zeppelin Pro/Premium, Rush Premium, and TMNT Pro/Premium, allowing distributors to advertise $1,000-$2,000 price reductions
high confidence · Don (host), speaking from firsthand knowledge of industry practice
A Facebook ad banner from Stern featured a black placeholder with 'Ranger' text, potentially a code name for an unannounced game
medium confidence · Don reports seeing this on Stern's Facebook ads; speculates if it's a code name like 'Jaws' (Jurassic Park) or 'Goonies' (Stranger Things)
Stranger Things Premium machines have dropped from $14,000-$16,000 to $8,900-$9,500 on the secondary market
high confidence · Don citing current Pinside marketplace listings he reviewed
Stranger Things Pro dropped from $9,000-$10,000 to $6,000 (home use example in Minnesota)
high confidence · Don reviewing Pinside marketplace
Distributors are overburdened with unsold inventory of older and newer Stern games, as well as Jersey Jack titles (Toy Story, Godfather)
high confidence · Don cites distributor burden and MAP pricing removal as evidence of inventory problem
Big Lebowski is listed at $12,800 by a motivated seller in Missouri downsizing an arcade
high confidence · Don reviewing Pinside marketplace listings
Six Stranger Things Premium machines with projectors are currently available on Pinside below MSRP
high confidence · Don reviewing Pinside marketplace in real-time during recording
Jeff at Mad Pinball has sold out of all his Elton John CE Monorail Orange allotment
high confidence · Don cites direct conversation with Jeff
“Have you seen the pinball market today? I've got some thoughts and I'm going to reveal them all to you right now.”
Don @ ~0:00-0:30 — Sets up the main topic of the episode: market analysis and volatility
“So they removed the restriction. And I had heard they did this with Rush. And I was thinking, oh, maybe that's just confirmation that no More Brewing Company rushes are going to be made.”
Don @ ~4:00-4:30 — Speculation that MAP removal signals end of Rush production, a standard industry signal interpretation
“Is Ranger the code word for the Jaws machine that's coming out? Or are we going to see a Yogi Bear in the forest Ranger machine?”
Don @ ~3:00-3:30 — Speculation on the mysterious 'Ranger' placeholder from Stern's Facebook ad
“If you were interested in a tmnt i guess now is a good time if you just paid near full price or market price for one, you're probably going to have a bad time.”
Don @ ~6:00-6:30 — Commentary on buyer timing and secondary market risk in volatile market
“Six months ago, this thing would have been $13,000, $14,000, $15,000. Now, Ed Boon. Below $9,000 for this thing.”
Don @ ~24:00-24:30 — Emphasizes the dramatic price collapse of Stranger Things Premium in a 6-month timeframe
“This is wild, wild of a drop, dude. If you waited and you hoped and you prayed, it has come through.”
Don @ ~27:00-27:30 — Reflects on the patience strategy paying off for buyers in a correcting market
“If you call me, let me know that you heard it here. I'll tell you what you get. You get a Rush LE with everything that comes out of The Box Arcade... plus my drumstick mod... $12,500.”
Don @ ~38:00-40:00 — Personal offer to sell modified Rush LE at dealer price, revealing Don's emerging role as a secondary market seller
“Whitewater is trading higher than Stranger Things right now. this world this market is in flux it's a wild thing to watch”
market_signal: Stranger Things Premium dropped from $14,000-$16,000 to $8,900-$9,500 in 6 months; Pro dropped from $9,000-$10,000 to $6,000. Multiple premium titles showing 30-45% price reductions.
high · Don reviewing live Pinside marketplace listings showing six Stranger Things Premiums available at $8,900 or best offer
market_signal: Shift from seller's market to buyer's market; multiple motivated seller situations (arcade downsizing, mortgage/alimony pressure) creating deals
high · Don identifying Big Lebowski Missouri listing as motivated seller with low play count; multiple fresh-condition machines at steep discounts
business_signal: Stern distributors burdened with unsold inventory of older and newer games; also affecting Jersey Jack (Toy Story, Godfather) titles
high · Don citing distributor burden as reason for MAP removal and price reductions; references Pinside ads showing constant inventory
product_strategy: Stern removed MAP pricing restrictions on Led Zeppelin Pro/Premium, Rush Premium, and TMNT Pro/Premium, enabling $1,000-$2,000 public discounts
high · Don directly stating Stern allowed distributors to advertise below MSRP for first time in these titles; speculates JJP may follow with Toy Story and Godfather
leak_detection: Stern Facebook ad banner accidentally revealed black placeholder with 'Ranger' text; unclear if game title, code name, or error
medium · Don citing John Youssi discovery on Stern's Facebook ad; notes similarity to previous code names (Jaws=Jurassic Park, Goonies=Stranger Things)
groq_whisper · $0.070
Don @ ~30:00-30:30 — Commentary on market irrationality and unexpected trading patterns
community_signal: Don transitioning from pure collector to secondary market seller/customizer (Don's Coast Customs/Don's Pinball Refinery); offering modified machines at marketplace prices
high · Don publicly offering Rush LE with mods and topper at $12,500, matching vanilla marketplace listing; mentions too many machines in collection
product_concern: Rush LE has problematic double scoop mechanism that bends; Stern issued post-sale fix; Ninja Scoop third-party solution preferred
high · Don discussing scoop cliffy issue requiring aftermarket installation; his own machine has Ninja Scoop Day One installed
design_innovation: Don created drumstick mod for Rush and offers it on Coin Taker site; also using aftermarket parts (scoop protectors, back mini orbit protectors) to improve quality of life
high · Don detailing his Rush mods: drumstick mount, dice lights on scoop, mini orbit protector plastic, all included in his $12,500 package
sentiment_shift: Don warming up to Led Zeppelin despite initial criticism; reconsidering Bond after code updates despite past complaints about shot satisfaction
medium · Don stating he 'warmed up to Led Zeppelin a little bit' and considers Bond Pro at $5,500 after hearing about code improvements
content_signal: Don conducting real-time Pinside marketplace scan during podcast recording; generating viewer engagement with specific deal callouts
high · Don reviewing first page of Pinside marketplace live, providing specific prices, locations, and play counts for 10+ machines
product_launch: Stranger Things Premium incoming to Don's house within weeks; planning live unboxing video; already purchased shaker motor and knocker kit
high · Don announcing Stranger Things Premium 'coming within weeks' and 'paid in full'; mentioning mods already ordered and planning unboxing content
manufacturing_signal: MAP removal on Rush, Led Zeppelin, TMNT may signal end of production for these titles, particularly Rush which Don speculates may not receive more stock
medium · Don noting MAP removal on Rush made him think 'maybe that's just confirmation that no More Brewing Company rushes are going to be made'