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Episode 1074: "4 NIB Games As World Economy Burns"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 9s·analyzed·Apr 7, 2025
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.027

TL;DR

Four pinball launches amid economic downturn; host urges caution and community solidarity.

Summary

Host Kaneda discusses the challenging economic climate and its impact on the pinball industry as four new machines (King Kong, Harry Potter, Predator, and a Barrels of Fun game rumored to be Dune) launch within four weeks. He expresses concerns about tariffs, parts sourcing, consumer spending patterns, and the timing coinciding with global market turmoil. He advises waiting before purchasing new machines and emphasizes community support during uncertain times.

Key Claims

  • Stern Pinball sources approximately 70% of its parts from overseas, creating vulnerability to tariffs

    medium confidence · Kaneda speculating on Stern's supply chain dependency

  • Pinball Brothers' Predator license is limited to US territory only; cannot be sold in Europe or Australia

    medium confidence · Kaneda citing rumor about licensing restrictions

  • Almost every pinball machine has lost 20-30% of its value in six months

    medium confidence · Kaneda's market observation

  • Spooky Pinball has sold all 888 Evil Dead machines

    high confidence · Kaneda reporting sales milestone

  • King Kong will not arrive on Spike 3 platform, indicating a price increase move

    medium confidence · Kaneda citing rumor about Spike 3 and pricing strategy

  • Barrels of Fun is planning media day on April 15th with NDA-based coverage approach

    high confidence · Kaneda describing confirmed media day logistics shared by David Van Es and Brian Savage

  • Stern Pinball is planning media day on April 17th for King Kong reveal

    high confidence · Kaneda citing Stern's historical media day pattern

  • Harry Potter announcement likely planned for May 2nd (International Harry Potter Day)

    medium confidence · Kaneda speculating on announcement timing

  • Stern may produce an SLE (Super Limited Edition) of King Kong in addition to standard 1000 LE units

    low confidence · Kaneda referencing rumor about expanded King Kong editions

  • Dutch Pinball X originally planned 300 games for Americas and 200 for Europe/worldwide, now shifting strategy due to tariffs

    medium confidence · Kaneda discussing DPX production plan adjustments with reference to conversation with Melvin

Notable Quotes

  • “I've been covering this hobby for 12 years and I've never seen a climate quite like this.”

    Kaneda@ 0:49 — Sets tone for episode's concern about unprecedented market conditions

  • “How, if everybody that you want to buy your games, if they're getting hammered financially, how can you increase the price on pinball machines?”

    Kaneda@ 2:55 — Core logic explaining why new pricing is problematic during downturn

  • “Pinball Brothers hasn't made a good game on their own. I don't think it starts now.”

    Kaneda@ 7:41 — Strong negative assessment of manufacturer's track record

  • “My advice to everybody is this, and I mean this when I say this. Wait it out.”

    Kaneda@ 14:41 — Explicit purchasing guidance to community during market downturn

  • “Evil Dead is a phenomenal game. At $10,000 it is easily Spooky Pinball's nicest machine to date.”

    Kaneda@ 11:41 — Positive assessment of Spooky's production quality and value proposition

  • “We're going to need each other more than we've ever needed each other to make it through this period.”

    Kaneda @ Closing segment — Shift to community-focused messaging amid economic uncertainty

  • “It's not these machines. It's each other. It's your family. It's your well being.”

    Kaneda@ 19:17 — Reframing priorities away from consumption toward personal relationships

  • “Nobody's going to want to buy a game right now that has a tariff attached to it. Why do you want to pay that premium?”

    Kaneda@ 14:10 — Explains consumer psychology barrier to Pinball Brothers Predator

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyBarrels of FuncompanySpooky PinballcompanyPinball BrotherscompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanyDutch Pinball XcompanyDavid Van Esperson

Signals

  • $

    market_signal: Tariffs creating significant cost pressure on manufacturers with overseas sourcing; Stern's 70% China dependency creates vulnerability; consumer resistance to tariff pass-through expected

    high · Multiple references to tariff taxes creating price premiums consumers won't accept; specific focus on Pinball Brothers Predator facing tariff burden with already-limited US market

  • $

    market_signal: Machines losing 20-30% of value in 6 months; secondary market oversupply expected as consumers divest luxury items during economic stress

    medium · Kaneda's direct observation that games are not holding value; prediction that people will liquidate machines when times get tough

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Widespread shift toward wait-and-see approach; consumer spending freezing due to economic uncertainty despite machine availability

    high · Kaneda's repeated advice to 'wait it out'; observation that games 'aren't going to sell as well as they would have two weeks ago'; emphasis on mental reset needed

  • ?

    product_strategy: Stern planning price increases despite economic headwinds; potential SLE King Kong edition suggests premium tier expansion; contradicts consumer spending environment

    medium · King Kong Spike 3 migration rumored as 'price increase move'; rumor of SLE variant creating multiple price tiers; Kaneda's skepticism about timing

  • ?

    announcement: Stern media day confirmed for April 17th; Barrels of Fun media day confirmed for April 15th; creates competitive overlap for coverage and consumer attention

Topics

Economic downturn and market timingprimaryTariffs and supply chain vulnerabilityprimaryMachine pricing and value depreciationprimaryNew game launches (King Kong, Harry Potter, Predator, Dune)primaryManufacturing capacity and production constraintsprimaryCommunity sentiment and purchasing behaviorprimaryLicensing restrictions and geographic territorysecondaryMedia day strategy and game revealssecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Kaneda expresses deep concern about economic climate, warns against purchases, criticizes manufacturer pricing decisions, and emphasizes community hardship. However, shows genuine appreciation for Spooky Pinball's Evil Dead quality and ends with hopeful emphasis on community support rather than cynicism.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.066

0:00
I don't think you can pick a worse month to launch a new pinball machine, but there's four machines coming over the next four weeks. I asked Killian what song should we play to get everybody in a better mood, and he picked this one. Let it go, can't hold it back anymore. Let it go, let it go, turn away and slam the door. I don't care what they're going to say. Let the storm rage on. The cold never bothered me anyway.
0:38
Sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, sit, up. Ah, is there anything going on in the world that would keep you from buying an expensive pinball machine right now? Well, OMG, I've been covering this hobby for 12 years and I've never seen a climate quite like this. But you don't come to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast for political advice. I'm not an economist, but I do know that it is rough out there and it's only going to
1:08
get worse today. And I think everybody, when you think about it, everyone's going to have to go through A little bit, maybe a lot of bit of a mental reset on what's important to you, to life, to what's out there. As I look at my young children and I worry about my job people, the first thing to get cut in an economic downturn is marketing. They cut the marketing budgets in half and I don't know what's going to happen.
1:38
You know, life is very, very short. I lost a family member yesterday to cancer and I'm looking out there. It's a rainy, gloomy, gray day. Four pinball companies are about to launch games over the next four weeks. And it is rough, right? It is a rough time to look at everything happening and say, Hey, you know what I'm going to do? I'm going to buy my way out of this gloomy feeling by buying another pinball machine.
Brian Savage
person
Melvinperson
Keith Elwinperson
King Konggame
Harry Pottergame
Predatorgame
Dunegame
Evil Deadgame
Alicegame
D&D Premiumgame

high · Kaneda citing specific dates and Stern's historical reveal pattern (teaser Friday, full launch Tuesday)

  • ?

    rumor_hype: Dune pinball rumored as Barrels of Fun's April 15th launch title; unconfirmed but Kaneda indicates strong likelihood based on context

    medium · Kaneda repeatedly references 'if it's Dune' and notes it 'is going to be a hard sell' compared to Kong and Potter

  • ?

    product_concern: Pinball Brothers Predator restricted to US territory only; cannot be sold in Europe or Australia; severely limits addressable market during tariff crisis

    medium · Kaneda citing rumor from unspecified source about US-only license; notes this means tariffs apply to only available market, creating double burden

  • ?

    product_launch: Spooky Pinball Evil Dead production (888 units) completely sold out; successful premium-priced ($10k) launch

    high · Kaneda directly states 'they've sold all 888 Evil Dead machines'; praises machine quality and value

  • ?

    business_signal: Manufacturers unable to pause production despite poor market timing; must maintain production lines to cover fixed labor costs and sustain cash flow

    high · Kaneda noting companies 'need to keep the line going' and 'can't turn off the line'; acknowledges this is 'brutal time to be in the manufacturing business'

  • ?

    supply_chain_signal: Dutch Pinball X adjusting production strategy due to tariffs; may reduce final unit count from 500 to 300; reversing original Americas-first distribution plan

    high · Kaneda discussing conversation with Melvin; noting they ordered 500 parts but may only produce 300 units; planning to announce official statement

  • ?

    community_signal: Host pivoting from game analysis to community support messaging; recognizing widespread job loss fears and financial stress across listener base

    high · Kaneda's personal reference to family member death and job concerns; repeated emphasis on needing 'each other'; shift from consumption advice to solidarity messaging

  • ?

    event_signal: Four major machine launches compressed into 4-week window colliding with global economic downturn; media coverage and consumer attention competing

    high · Kaneda emphasizing 'I don't think you can pick a worse month to launch a new pinball machine'; noting April 15th Barrels of Fun conflicts with April 17th Stern King Kong reveal

    • 2:08
    Look, here's the thing. I think now more than ever is going to be a period in which people wait and see. I think everyone is kind of forced to wait and see now. But why wouldn't you? I also think the real issue now, obviously there's a lot of real issues with tariffs and the cost of goods. Like what happens if Stern has 70% of its parts coming from overseas? How can they even raise the price even more? The latest rumor is that King Kong is not going to arrive on Spike 3.
    2:42
    I think that means that Spike 3 is a price increase move. Yes, they're going to give us more, but they're going to charge more. And just think about it on a very common sensical level. How, if everybody that you want to buy your games, if they're getting hammered financially, how can you increase the price on pinball machines? The Out Pinball Podcast is a production of WILLY WANKA.
    3:35
    All Predator will be delivered to us. I got some news about that game that's not very good for the pinball brothers. And then we've got Harry Potter. Most likely it is going to be announced on May 2nd, which is International Harry Potter Day. Apparently that's the day in the book where he beats Voldemort. I don't know, man. Does anybody really connect May 2nd with Harry Potter? I think everyone just connects May 4th to Star Wars. You know, so I'm still so excited to see these four games.
    4:06
    And the reason why is I don't really have any plans to go in on any of these games right now. And so I think it's going to be interesting watching these companies try to slug it out as more and more of us are just going to be content with the games we have. But nothing ceases to amaze me in the world of pinball. I still think there is a large portion of you and you're listening to this show right Now, even if the economic world is on fire, you're still going to go in on these new games.
    4:36
    There's something about this hobby that makes people make irrational decisions. Over the last three to four years, if you bought these new in box games, you've been losing so much money and yet people are still buying. So I don't get it. It just seems to be this like crazy arbitrary economy that happens around pinball. But let's talk about what's about to happen. So all of a sudden, you've got two companies that are going to have media days a week from tomorrow. So on April 15th, which is a Tuesday, Barrels of Fun is going to allow media and distributors
    5:11
    into its factory to see its new game. Now, I think that means that Barrels of Fun is going to show their game before that moment. But David Van Es and Brian Savage had an idea. Here's what their idea was. Invit eveybody in sign an NDA and give people a day to make all of their coverage and then you reveal the game So they might not reveal this game until like Wednesday or Thursday Here's the problem. If Stern Pinball is inviting media to see King Kong on Thursday, April 17th,
    5:45
    if we look at how Stern historically does their media days, they usually already reveal the game before media come through the door because they don't want to have to like have people sign nndas they don't want to keep it a secret and so that means we are most likely going to see the king kong teaser this Friday they always do that like the weekend before they reveal the theme and then we're gonna get the full launch of the game on Tuesday okay so if you think about that that means on the very
    6:17
    day barrels of fun wants media to come over to Texas Stern pinball is gonna fully reveal King Kong on the same exact i'm Тůится Ng LeafyDude, Re
    6:52
    I'm not going to be rushing anymore. And I'm worried about the barrels launch the most. I really am. And I reached out to my friends again and I said, hey guys, can you help me help you? Can I get something to get people excited about? And I haven't seen anything yet. So I think I'm going to see this game when the rest of you see the game. I don't think I'm going to get any assets beforehand. I don't think I'm going to have the ability to get you excited about the game before it comes out. Now look, I'm still excited to see it. I do think if it's Dune, it's going to be a hard sell.
    7:24
    And I'm just reading the room. It's going to be a hard sell because you got King Kong and you got Harry Potter and those games are going to have a lot of interest. And look, you got like three games that people are really excited to see. I don't think most people are that excited for the Pinball Brothers Predator game. Pinball Brothers hasn't made a good game on their own. I don't think it starts now. I think the problem is going to be this for these companies. It seems like the smart move would be if you were Stern and you were Barrels of Fun and the world economies are on fire, you wouldn't reveal right now.
    7:58
    You would just wait a little bit and see what happens. The problem is all of these companies need to keep the line going. Every week the line is not going. They're losing a lot of money because they got to pay the employees to come in and they need to be doing something and you need those orders to come in to keep the line going. Now is a really brutal time to be in the manufacturing business and especially if you're manufacturing something people really don't need.
    8:28
    So I don't really think there's the option for these companies to wait, just to wait it out and see what happens. Let me pivot real quickly to Dutch Pinball X because I hear a lot of people in that thread because if you think about all the games right now that are getting impacted by the tariffs The game is on the line right now. And so people are wondering, well, what happens, right? Because when they started making this game, the original plan was not to sort of only
    9:02
    ship the games in Europe first. The original plan was to send some games to America, then send some games to Europe. 300 games were sold for Americans and 200 for Europe and around the world. Now I know that Dutch Pinball X is planning to announce an official statement. I've been speaking with Melvin and I think the thing they're going to do, because you can't blame them, right? I think the thing they're going to do that makes the most sense, I think they're going to look at the first like couple hundred games and it makes most sense to send those games
    9:35
    Endgame
    10:05
    All of these games are going to give everybody the option. And I know them. They're not going to steal anybody's deposits. I would just keep an open mind and I think they're going to give everybody an option. Okay? This game is like the smallest volume game that needs to figure it out. The other thing is this. When are we going to see video of a final production version of Alice? I don't get it. I think a few games have gone out but nobody's streaming it. All around AR,
    11:03
    Really weird time But look also Dutch Pinball hasn ordered 500 parts So I think they gonna play this by year if people want out they might end up not making 500 units They might only make like 300 of this game and move on to the next all that is to be determined And I know that they're gonna make the right decisions over at DPX Spooky Pinball is feeling good right now because they've sold all 888 Evil Dead machines. And Evil Dead is a phenomenal machine.
    11:34
    I played it this weekend. You probably heard my Facebook lives and my YouTube lives and Kaneda trying to flip the camera around. But Evil Dead is a phenomenal game. At $10,000 it is easily Spooky Pinball's nicest machine to date. When I played that game next to D&D Premium, it absolutely made the Stern look like a Tinker I'm your host, Jeff Altman, and I'll see you next time on the In The Game Podcast. Have a great day. Bye.
    12:04
    Bye. The game is one of the nicest looking games I've ever seen. I don't think I've seen a game from head to toe, the attention to detail on everything. The coin door, the armor, the speaker grill area, the topper, everything for 10 grand.
    12:38
    You get everything. Inner art blades, you get a wide body, you get all these toys and then you look at what everybody else is trying to sell you and this game is made in Benton, Wisconsin. And so I don't think you're going to have to pay a tariff. Now I don't know where they get all their parts but everybody gets something from overseas. They have to. Like those monitors are not being made in America. I doubt it. I heard Stern has something like 70% of its parts come from China. 70%! How are they going to survive if that's the case? We are just 8 days out from Barrels of Fun's new game.
    13:10
    8 days out! And they are doing nothing to get us excited. I don't get what's going on. I really don't. So here's some news about Predator that you're not going to like. And no, it's not whether or not Arnold is in the game or not. I don't know. I'm hearing he's not in the game, but here's the real killer for Pinball Brothers. Nobody knows this. So Pinball Brothers has the license for Predator. The only issue with the license they have is they only have the US license for the game.
    13:42
    That means they can only sell the game in America. They can't sell it in Europe and they can't sell it in Australia. That's the rumor I heard. Now imagine their scenario now where they've got to pay these tariff taxes on this game and they can't even sell it locally and the only place they can sell it is a country that's now going to tax it 20% on top of the price. The problem is nobody's going to want to buy a game right now that has a tariff attached
    14:15
    to it. Why do you want to pay that premium? And then what happens if they lift those tariffs? Like you pay 20% more and you're never going to get that money back. The real issue though is not just the tariffs. Before the tariffs were even in place, almost every single pinball machine has lost like 20 to 30% of its value in just six months. Oh my gosh. Like we're burning the candle at both ends. But my advice to everybody is this, and I mean this when I say this.
    14:45
    Wait it out. These games are going to get made. Stern's going to have to make all 1000 Kong LEs. Did you hear the rumor that they're going to make an SLE of King Kong? Yeah, really good time to make an even more expensive version of a Stern machine. That's going to go over real well. I mean, but again, like I said earlier, they'll probably sell out because this is what the pinball buying demographic does. It absolutely operates outside of the normal world. So they're gonna make all 1000 of those games and gang they're gonna make King Kong premium
    15:19
    forever. So why would you buy one right now? If you think about barrels of fun, I think they're gonna struggle. If this is Dune, again, let the distributors buy it. Don't run in right away. We know the game's not gonna go up in value. It's gonna have a hard time finding customers, especially with Kong and Potter around the corner. It's just the worst time ever for barrels of fun to launch a game. It's unfortunate. I know they had this date planned for a long time. There is no way they anticipated Keith Elwin's game the same week as theirs and they did
    15:50
    not anticipate the global meltdown of the markets the same week they need you to commit to spending $10,000 on a pinball machine. But they're still going to make the games. Brian and David can't turn off the line so they're still going to make them. So let them make the games and see what happens. And then we're going to get like Harry Potter and the unlimited CE order window. We know Jack is gonna say he got 5,000 orders for CEs and we know they're gonna make Harry Potter CEs for years to come. So my advice to all of you, let these companies make their products, let the dealers and the
    16:27
    distros buy them and then wait because what is absolutely gonna happen if things keep going the way they going and it almost already too late too much money has been evaporated you gonna see so many games for sale at a discount. When times get tough, people get rid of things they don't really need. You're gonna see more and more people put up their pinball machines for sale and they're hard to sell, right?
    16:57
    This is not like selling a watch or a car. Like just moving a pinball machine out of your house into someone else's is going to be really hard because luxury items get hit the hardest because it's the one thing nobody really needs when we get into like a recessionary period like we're in right now. And I think everyone's just going to wait it out. I really do. I think they're going to wait it out. I don't know how these new games are going to sell. I can tell you they're not going to sell as well as they would have two weeks ago.
    17:31
    And we'll see what happens in two weeks. In about an hour, the markets are going to open up and crash. The only thing that's not going to happen is I'm not going to raise the price of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I thank each and every one of you for being a subscriber. I think this is where the most fun is going to be over the next couple of months. I wouldn't buy these expensive games right now, hang out with the community because trust We're going to need each other more than we've ever needed each other to make it through this period. I feel that way. Some of us are going to lose our jobs. Some of us are going to be in a really tough situation. And I think we need each other. And I mean that. Like we're going to need to lean on each other and help each other through this. I think a lot of people are confused, right? A lot of people are confused. This show will never get political. It won't. But I don't think there's anybody out there right now that feels like anything going on is making it through this period.
    18:24
    I'm not making America great again. You're not. Because everybody votes with their wallet. They do. And this is just like a weird period. I've never been through anything like this. You haven't been through anything like this. And I think we're just going to need each other. I think we're going to have to have support for each other. And I think we're going to have to make the pinball space at least an area we can go where it's not going to be overly political. But it is impossible to separate what's going on in the world with the pinball space.
    18:54
    The pinball conversation, right? And I see it on pin side. It's like they're trying to like limit the amount of political back and forth. But how can we honestly think about these games and not think about what's going on in the real world? And I think what's good is this. I think it's going to give everybody a new perspective on what's important in life. It's not these machines. It's each other. It's your family. It's your well being. And you need to fill your lives with things that really, really matter and surround yourself with family and friends that genuinely care about you.
    19:33
    And we've all had it way too good for way too long. The fact that some of us have like 5, 15, 20 pinball machines in your home, while most people are suffering to put food on the table, they can't afford to pay for their cost of We do seem like this privileged one percentile of society that's hemming and hawing if barrels of fun is really trying to sell dune pinball to us. You know, if I walk down the street and I ask people, hey man, how do you feel about dune pinball? Nobody cares.
    20:05
    If I ask people, would you spend $15,000 on a single pinball machine? They would slap me in the face. It just is what it is, right? This is our little niche hobby. We all still love it. I love it, but I really do think we're gonna head for a period in which we need to just like hit pause for a while. And it's just not a good time for these companies. At the same time we're gonna be hitting pause, they're gonna launch four games in four weeks and they're all crashing on top of each other as the global markets crash at the same time.
    20:35
    I mean think about it. And the crazy part is these companies were getting ready to raise their prices. It's insane! www.jwaplanet.com
    21:12
    And another $10,000 pinball machine. Everybody have a happy Monday. There's gonna be a lot of fun coverage coming as these games are about to come out. But right now, I don't think anyone is like grabbing that wallet to buy a Dune pinball machine. Later. In the past Let it go, let it go When I rise like the break of dawn Let it go, let it go
    21:43
    That perfect girl that is gone Here I stand in the light of day Let the storm rage on! The cold never bothered me anyway.