Episode 825: "Will Venom Teach Stern A Lesson?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 57s·held·Jul 24, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.030

TL;DR

Kaneda argues Venom's weak sales signal market resistance to overpricing, not dead FOMO, amid rumors of He-Man and Harry Potter licensing.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Venom's sluggish sales, arguing that FOMO is not dead but rather that customers are avoiding B-tier themes and sky-high prices ($13k LE, $10k Pro). He criticizes Stern for becoming the scalper, claims excessive distributor spam is turning buyers away, and warns of industry oversaturation and overpricing leading to a market crash. He also covers rumors about Harry Potter licensing ($10M asking price), He-Man (allegedly coming to Stern via John Borg), Spooky's Looney Tunes license, and expresses concern about Jersey Jack's direction under Jack Wintzer.

Key Claims

FOMO is not dead in pinball; Pulp Fiction sold out in one day and LEs remain above MSRP
high confidence · Kaneda, discussing Venom sales and comparing to Pulp Fiction successful launch
Stern LE prices have doubled in five years (from ~$6,500-$7,500 to $13,000)
high confidence · Kaneda, citing specific price history data
Joe Kaminkow (JJP) was willing to spend $4M on Harry Potter license; asking price is now $10M
medium confidence · Kaneda citing Naps Arcade report; previous licensing record was Beatles at ~$1M
John Borg is making He-Man pinball for Stern, and American Pinball lost their He-Man license after Hot Wheels
medium confidence · Kaneda citing unnamed sources; presented as rumor/bet with Jason Knapp
Spooky Pinball has licensed Looney Tunes for a pinball machine
medium confidence · Kaneda broke this via 'visual imagery' but notes uncertainty about which properties are included
Ryan McQuaid next game at American Pinball is likely Altered Beast, a Sega/arcade game similar to He-Man
low confidence · Kaneda speculation based on McQuaid's known love of Sega and Sonic
Stern will not let distributors advertise prices below MAP pricing, but this policy may have to change
medium confidence · Kaneda, noting emerging distributor stockpiling and market pressure
Jersey Jack did not actually produce 1,000 The Godfather or 1,000 Toy Story 4 as claimed
low confidence · Kaneda speculation: 'You just don't see them in collections enough to say a thousand of them went out there'
Elton John will be Jersey Jack's next game release later in 2024
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction: 'I think we going to see Elton John this year and man it almost August'

Notable Quotes

“FOMO is not dead in pinball. What is dead in pinball is this. People are not going to spend these kinds of prices on a game unless it's a dream theme.”
Kaneda @ ~4:30 — Core thesis about market shift from FOMO-driven impulse buying to theme-quality gating
“Now they're saying that every single LE that comes out is worth $13,000 on day one. That is total hogwash. They've taken all the money that they used to pass on to the customer.”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Criticism of Stern's pricing strategy and captured value extraction
“The only opportunity we're ever gonna get to get prices to go back down a little bit is to say no.”
Kaneda @ ~11:30 — Call to action for consumer resistance to pricing
“You've got an industry that's overpriced, you've got an industry that's going to over saturate itself. That's a recipe for disaster.”
Kaneda @ ~18:00 — Prediction of industry correction due to supply/demand imbalance
“The only thing that's going to survive this is Keith Elwin games and AAA themes that are done right. That's it.”
Kaneda @ ~19:30 — Market survival prediction: only premium designer/IP combinations will sustain current pricing
“They killed the golden goose and we're just at the middle of witnessing that golden goose in the sky plummeting to the ground.”
Kaneda @ ~43:00 — Summary statement on unsustainable market trajectory
“When I see a game's creator is staying as far away from the project as possible, that is the ultimate red flag that I don't want one.”
Kaneda @ ~32:00 — Commentary on designer disengagement as signal of product issues
“If you work for a pinball company and you're not paid, your NDA is invalid. It will never hold up in court.”
Kaneda @ ~36:00 — Legal/industry commentary on employee protections vs. NDAs

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Venomgame Pulp Fictiongame Harry Pottergame

Signals

$
market_signal: Venom LE not selling quickly at $13,000 MSRP; customers delaying purchases and waiting for secondary market availability
high · Kaneda: 'You can get two day new in box...People are not gonna spend these kinds of prices on a game unless it's a dream theme'
?
product_strategy: Stern LE prices doubled from $6,500-$7,500 to $13,000 in five years; unlimited Pros now $10,000
high · Kaneda: 'Did everyone forget that Tron LE was like $5,700 bucks? Stern LEs used to be $6,500 then they went up to $7,500'
~
sentiment_shift: Growing community skepticism toward B-tier themes at AAA pricing; customers explicitly canceling LE pre-orders (Pin Monk example)
high · Kaneda: 'I've heard more and more people say I'm not buying...Pin Monk say I've canceled my le order'
?
business_signal: Distributors unable to move Venom allocations; resorting to repeated 'sold out' claims contradicted by re-listings hours later
medium · Kaneda: 'Distributors are starting to stockpile...They're like sold out. Then like an hour later, we got a few more'
?
industry_signal: Too many releases in pipeline (James Bond, Foo Fighters, Godfather, Galactic Tank Force, Pulp Fiction, Venom, potential Lebowski, Centaur) competing for finite collector spend
high · Kaneda: 'There is too much content happening in the pinball space and there's not enough money to go around'
?

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.084

0:00

Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Kaneda is on the mend, ladies and gentlemen. I have this thing called like hand-foot-mouth disease that Killian gave me. Hey, let me tell you right now, this is the worst thing ever. I would never wish this on my worst enemy. Basically what it does is it gives open sores inside your mouth. Think of canker sores all throughout the side and the back of your mouth. And then your hands get a rash and your feet get a rash. It's horrible. And there's no remedy for it. You just have to wait it out seven to 10 days and it's super contagious. So I've been quarantining in this bedroom thinking about this pinball podcast, but I'm better enough to talk to you right now. Now, alright, so we've got a lot to talk about. I haven't given you my real feelings on Venom. We've seen the stream. We've seen the dead flip stream of the pro and the premium. I've been reading everybody's feedback. We just heard about Harry Potter. We've got rumors about who's making He-Man. We've got rumors about Spooky Pinball's next theme or possible theme. We're going to talk about all of that in less than 40 minutes on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. So where do we want to start? Let's start with Venom. There's a lot of conversation happening around Venom and I've been reading everybody's commentary. I've been hearing what people have been saying and there's a lot of people making some very bold predictions about this game. I think the one that's just wrong, I want to start with this one, that FOMO is dead in pinball. We need to stop thinking that is true. Because people aren't running to buy Venom at $13,000 Does not mean that FOMO is dead across the entire pinball hobby everybody. Look what happened to Pulp Fiction. That game sold out in one day and you can't find an LE for less than what they're charging for one. FOMO is not dead. What is dead in pinball is this. People are not going to spend these kinds of prices on a game unless it's a dream theme. Okay? You can go get two day new in box. Think about how much energy The U. S. M. E. B. A. C. F. G. V. A. I. V. E. I. Last time we got a AAA theme was what? Like Stranger Things? And we saw what happened with Stranger Things at launch. And so I think everyone's waiting for these juggernauts. Look, some bad news for Harry Potter fans. Problem with pinball at these prices is if you don't give people that AAA theme, it really makes people hesitate a lot nowadays that two premiums are $20,000 and two LEs are $26,000. People are going to start hitting pause because it's not true. The PINBALL that's gone up in price so much, it's everything else out in the world. And I know that each and every one of you has not doubled your income over the last five years, but the cost of a Stern LE is double what it used to be. But I always thought Venom was going to be a sort of B theme. It was never going to be a theme that everybody just threw money at. So I'm not surprised about the reception to the Venom LE prices. I also think people are getting kinda tired of the constant and endless spam from all these distributors. Have you been on Facebook when a new game comes out? It's like you get hit up 18, 19 different ways from all these distributors letting you know that your life will be complete if you take off their hands, their allotment of Venom Premium Pros and LEs. And I think for most of us out there, if you just wait it out, you're gonna be able to get those Pros, Premiums, and LEs. Like, why would you buy this game now? Why would you buy it before you get a chance to play it? And even though we've seen a stream on the game, I don't think that's enough to make people say, yup, I'm gonna write a check now. And people are saying this. They are being asked to pay in full now for a Venom LE that they're not gonna get for two months. Why would you do that? I think people are getting smarter. Because if you hold on to your $13,000 and you just wait two months, in two months we might see the next game from In two months we might see a Twilight Zone or Big Bang Bar released. In two months something else might happen in the pinball world. And why wouldn't you just keep your options open? And I think that's what we're seeing more and more from people in this hobby. I'm just gonna keep my options open. None of these B-themed games are ever gonna be hard to get. And they're never gonna go up in price. I see people saying like they're happy that Stern raised the prices because they took the scalpers out of the market. Let me ask all of you a question right now. Are you happy or they remove the scalpers from the market and Stern turn themselves into the scalpers people? You see what they did? Now they're saying that every single LE that comes out is worth $13,000 on day one. That is total hogwash. They've taken all the money that they used to pass on to the customer. So I mean this when I say it. For all of you out there who cried about scalping and flipping, congratulations. The You're laughing all the way to the bank that they're charging us $10,000 for a freaking unlimited premium. Ten grand for an unlimited premium. And there's no going back. This is it. And that's why they don't care that these sales aren't flying off the shelves on day one. They don't care. You know how much more money Stern is making on a $7,000 pro? Did everyone forget that Tron LE was like $5,700 bucks? Stern LEs used to be $6,500 then they went up to $7,500. Now you're spending interview好创, Native,Bree ,Zetti Quy,WPPRить Fawad, Nordic Weekendenchwad, F outward adapter to the web by driver from the born girl driver of the future than most other things and it one of the most unnecessary items that the problem it not food it not blue lose its knots to make it through this crazy world it up in the mission and each and every one of you owns a ton of pinball machines that are amazing And you know you don need more And I think that's what's happening with Venom sales. A lot of you are like, the game looks fun. And the game does look fun. I saw the streams, the game's really fast. Those ball ejects on the sides are kind of interesting. They eject the ball before the ball even makes it there. So the game's actually faster than it could technically be in real life. It does make for a very fast game. I think Stern is trying some really interesting stuff with the code on this game, more like a role playing game where you could start off where you left off. They haven't done this before. I like that they're trying new things in pinball. I do worry a little bit that they're turning pinball into video games. And for those of you saying, oh, they're going to hit us with downloadable content, where have you been, people? They've already hit us with downloadable content. Another thing that could be interesting is that the game is not going to be $5. It's going to be $500. You know what their downloadable content is people? It's a $1000 Godzilla topper where they know the topper costs just $500 bucks and then they're charging you $500 additionally to get the downloadable code. Stern is trojan-horsing so much stuff into this hobby. It makes nobody feel good and the distributors have to pretend like this is great, like bye-bye-bye, like this is the best thing to happen. targets facing I'm going to be a little out of hand and I want to ask the question right now. Are we learning anything from this launch? Do we think Stern is going to learn anything from this launch? Well, look, I'm very proud of many of you out there. I am. I'm very proud of a lot of you. I've heard more and more people say I'm not buying. I've heard more and more people saying I'm not going in on an le. I've even heard people like pin monk say I've canceled my le order because I'm not locking up my money with Stern for two months. I'm not going to do it. I'm just gonna wait. I think that's the way to go because here's the thing. The only opportunity we're ever gonna get to get prices to go back down a little bit, not a lot, but even a little bit. The only power we have is to say no. And if you say no, here's what's gonna happen. Distributors are not gonna be able to say no. They have to keep buying from Stern to ensure they get their allotments of like LEs and premiums. But the problem now is distributors are starting to stockpile The First One So I Want To Make This A Story My Own Story So I Want To Make This Story Mine I think it's really interesting that Stern will not let a distributor advertise list a price below map pricing, but I think that's going to have to change too coming up. My point is this, we all know the hobby got out of hand, we all know that Stern became the ultimate scalper in pinball, we all know that these machines do not really provide $13,000 in enjoyment. Thank you for listening.

10:34

$ Nos I'm worried that this is what's going to happen. They're going to overcharge their customers. That's what Disney did. They charged people way too much money to get into the parks and it turned people off and people started to think twice. The one thing you don't want with an impulse buy like a pinball machine is you don't want these men to think twice about what they're doing. But I think more and more of us are thinking twice. So they're overcharging their customer. Then you make too much content. That's the other List Pen Polat 5 dollar glasses. 4 Clan & 5 nights to play rueGames Marte Watch out the screen if you like or hate these rivalry. You see, it used to work when an LE was $7,500. This three cornerstones a year, it worked because you could buy all three of those LEs every year and make money on them or pass them on without any loss for the same price now of two Stern LEs. So this is going to be the problem that happens in the entire industry. There's just going to be too many games that get released a year. I mean think about it James Bond, Foo Fighters, Godfather, Galactic Tank Force, Pulp Fiction, Venom. You've got all of these games. I didn't even talk about people might want a Lebowski. There's all these things going on. They might want a Centaur. They might want this. They might want that. There is too much content happening in the pinball space and there's not enough money to go around and there's not enough space in people's homes to absorb all of these games. So then what happens? This is a very important topic for the next few days. I know that there are a lot of people who are going to want to do something new, but I also want to make sure that they are committed to something that is old and not old. I don't even talk about the 1969 Scooby Doo's they have to make. So you've got an industry that's overpriced, you've got an industry that's going to over saturate itself. That's a recipe for disaster. The prices are too high and the volume is too much. That means demand just evaporates. And the only thing that can survive this, you know this, the only thing that's going to survive this is Keith Elwin games and AAA themes that are done right. That's it. You need a AAA theme that's done right or you need Keith Elwin, everything else. Come on, Eric Minier, you know when people say Eric's like the savior of Jersey Jack, he's had three games at Jersey Jack Pinball. Two of them have flopped. I a fan of Eric Guns and Roses but there no denyinging the fact that when they banked on him his games have not flown off the shelf So yeah he gotta get a Triple theme going Is Elton John gonna be the answer I don think so There no way based on the vibe that Elton John is gonna have the AND I do applaud each and every one of you that has listened to Kaneda and you are waiting and seeing and you're not running at every one of these B themes. Alright, speaking of not a B theme, we heard today that Harry Potter is not gonna happen or at least it's not gonna happen the way you want it to happen. We heard from Naps Arcade that Joe Kamnikow was ready to spend $4 million on the Harry Potter license. Now, the previous record for most for a license was Beatles at like a million. The rumor is that Willy Wonka cost JerseyJack $1.2 million, so he had $4 million on the table and they said no. And then we're hearing now, this is crazy, that to get all of the assets that you'd want for Harry Potter would be $10 million. So it's not happening. If it does happen, it's going to be some Hogwarts fantasy adventure game that's based on the properties from Harry Potter, but nothing from the movie or the characters that The bet favors him right now. I'll tell you why. And the bet is for 500 bucks and whoever loses will donate $500 to Project Pinball. Now here's why I think Jason Knapp might have the advantage on this bet. Is that Joe Balser was working on He-Man after he did Hot Wheels. I know this for a fact. That American Pinball had the He-Man license back then. I heard that they lost the license and that is why I think they might have lost the He-Man license. and Jim And my sources tell me John Borgamborg is actually making he-man pinball for Stern Pinball now look if I were to ask each and every one of you right now Who would you rather make He-man? American Pinball or John Borg and Stern obviously we're all hoping it is Stern pinball But that is the bet and I think this is Gonna happen sometime next year We will see a He-Man pinball machine. If it is American pinball, is it gonna be Ryan McQuaid's game? I keep hearing that Ryan McQuaid's game is based on an old video game or arcade game that was also a comic or something like that or had an animated series and so that might be He-Man but I want to take a wild guess and Kaneda is one to take wild guess in the world of pinball The Podcasting here's my guess because there was an old Sega game that was actually based on he-man But wasn't actually he-man it was like their version of he-man and if you know Ryan McQuaid He loves Sega he loves Sonic the Hedgehog so Kaneda's pinball podcast is gonna go out on a limb and predict that Ryan McQuaid's game at American Pinball is no other than the The Arcade and Sega Genesis Classic Altered Beasts because Altered Beasts is based on He-Man. So that is my guess that Ryan McQuaid is making Altered Beasts Pinball. Does anybody want it? I don't know. I don't think so. What is going on over there at American Pinball? But before we get to Galactic Tank Force, let's talk about Spooky Pinball. So I broke the rumor via visual imagery that Spooky Pinball has the license to make the The Looney Tunes Pinball Machine If you like fertility work, please help this called Help The Run with our Amazon does the INTAGINAL If you like birazilan** you have been helped by the показait in hơn권 dan the for invect status and I'm not sure if you'd get all of those properties because I think some of those properties have been licensed by other people. But I don't know man, I think Spooky Pinball, I think you have to look at the target audience of pinball and 40 to 60 year old men and really ask yourselves, Looney Tunes, like really? Are we doing this? Shouldn't we try to go after something more adult, even stuff from the 80s and 90s, stuff that has a more mature theme? Alright, what else is going on in the pinball world? So we covered off on Stern. We know Jersey Jack Godfather. The CEs are finally making their way to customers and they're beautiful machines. I'm not going to take anything away from those machines. They look absolutely gorgeous. For $15,000 they should. Now it's going to get really interesting to see what happens as all of these men cough over 15k and they start to play the Godfather. We're going to see how long this game lasts in people's collections. We're going to see how long until people start to sell them. And then we're going to see if the game starts to become a falling knife like Godfather Ellie is. I still deep down do not think Jersey Jack is going to make 1000 Godfather CEs. I don't think they allotted all of them. I don't think they made 1000 Toy Story CEs. I don't think so. You just don't see them in collections enough to say a thousand of them went out there. But the truth is this, that ship has sailed. There's nothing they're going to do to get people excited again in The Godfather. It doesn't matter. I think a lot of you out there who are curious about the game, you'll pick up an LE for 10. You'll pick up a CE for 12 if you want it in just a few months. We know this game is headed south. Nothing is going so let start I going to be the dead horse but for a company that makes one game every 18 months we expect more and I think Jack Winari has led this company astray with two terrible theme selections in a row and they need to climb out of the gutter and if it Elton John I really worried I am really worried and I think we going to see Elton John this year and man it almost August like the year is going to go pretty quickly Replacement of the factors in contact with Ant التيhan Dian exits Open Where do I go? Select note Even You have a 45 minute photo Up in Porque you killed me that was all we are here this Caneda remains Public Enemy Number 1 to the Executives at Jersey Jack Pinball.

22:21

onym, LiveTV Rounders, SCI.fm, Сbitkom, Grid.re, Fat worm스� Auch camaro.com, testdesignbrowser.com above the We play�它 AllasusRR, David Van Es Who's the top gamer of this decade? www.globalgamesw Connecticuthandbook.com www.globalgamesw idéeadYou duckswhatsapp fate restaurant dreamday vidCKS Disney 1 120 20 21 24 27 28 29 30 31 32 35 The game designer wants nothing to do with marketing the game. He wants nothing to do with getting you excited about the game. And when I see that, when I see a game's creator is staying as far away from the project as possible, that is the ultimate red flag that I don't want one. If he doesn't want to promote the game and he doesn't want to get people excited about the game, then why should I get excited about the game? If I designed a game, I would be in front of it every single week getting you excited On 9 27th Augustork ☼️ すごいада paule وهľ'č Qi bez ne prez makerbilove Your move I'm not going to waste much airtime on Haggis anymore. You know, somebody sent me like this statement from someone who used to work with Damien and it was all this stuff about how he wasn't paid and everybody was promised games and this and that and this and that. I'm just here to tell you if you've worked for Haggis Pinball and you have a story to tell, don't hide behind your NDA. Tell it yourself. Don't come to Kaneda and make me have to tell your story. Let me tell you something, people. If you work for a pinball company and you're not paid, your NDA is invalid. It will never hold up in court. And your non-disclosure agreement has to do with the trade secrets of the company. But if they don't pay you, that's not a trade secret. You're I'm not doing it again. I did it with Highway Pinball and everybody yelled at me. We're just going to have to see the way this movie ends. I'm not doing it again. Oh man, there we are. Kaneda's Pinball Podcast back with a sore throat. Everybody thank you for being a member of the Kaneda Club. A lot's going to happen in this pinball space over the next few months. I just want to say that I'm very proud to see a lot of you following my advice. I think a lot of you are waiting. You're not rushing in. Only fools are rushing in to buy these games right away. Everyone's realizing I got a great collection. Remember, your job is to bring yourself pinball joy. It's not to bail these distributors out of their allotments. I can see the desperation, man. These distributors right now are funny. They're like sold out. Then like an hour later, we got a few more. Oh come on, you're not sold out! Let's just be honest, you're not gonna sell out of a thousand VenomLEs at $13,000. It's not happening, alright? And it's not gonna make anyone feel better to get one now. The games are not even going on the line for two freaking months. It's a whole new world now, people, and we haven't had prices this high. And when people say, like, well, there wasn't this anger about Foo Fighters at 13, but the real anger is gonna be this. People have never in the history of pinball bought two Stern LEs and had to spend $26,000. You can't keep it at this. This gravy Train is going to end. They killed the golden goose and we're just at the middle of witnessing that golden goose in the sky plummeting to the ground. And it's not there yet, but it's going to happen. And yes, sure, there's going to be a Keith Elwin game every year or so, but that's not enough to sustain these prices every single launch, people. Kaneda out. Thank you for being a member of the club.