Episode 825: "Will Venom Teach Stern A Lesson?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 57s·held·Jul 24, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.033

TL;DR

Kaneda: Venom sales show B-themes at $13k won't sell; Stern is scalping; industry oversaturated; Harry Potter dead; He-Man coming.

Summary

Kaneda discusses the sluggish sales response to Stern's Venom pinball machine, arguing that FOMO is not dead but rather that B-themed games at inflated prices ($13,000+) are not compelling enough for buyers. He critiques Stern's pricing strategy as turning the company into scalpers, analyzes industry oversaturation, and shares rumors about upcoming games including Harry Potter licensing failures, He-Man pinball development, and Spooky Pinball's Looney Tunes license. He expresses concern about Jersey Jack's creative direction and argues that only Keith Elwin games and premium All American Amusements themes will survive an overpriced, oversaturated market.

Key Claims

FOMO is not dead in pinball; people are just not willing to pay $13,000 for B-themed games like Venom
high confidence · Kaneda, opening argument about Venom sales reception
Stern LE prices have doubled in the last five years, rising from $6,500 to $13,000
high confidence · Kaneda, discussing historical pricing: 'Tron LE was like $5,700 bucks; Stern LEs used to be $6,500 then they went up to $7,500'
Joe Kamnikow was prepared to spend $4 million on the Harry Potter license, but the rights holder demanded $10 million total for all assets
medium confidence · Kaneda, citing Knapp Arcade report: 'Joe Kamnikow was ready to spend $4 million on the Harry Potter license'
American Pinball lost the He-Man license and John Borg is now making He-Man pinball for Stern Pinball
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I heard that they lost the license and that is why I think they might have lost the He-Man license. And my sources tell me John Borg is actually making He-Man pinball for Stern Pinball now'
Spooky Pinball has licensed Looney Tunes for a pinball machine
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I broke the rumor via visual imagery that Spooky Pinball has the license to make the Looney Tunes Pinball Machine'
Jersey Jack Godfather CEs are beginning to ship and will likely become a 'falling knife' game as players sell them quickly
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'we're going to see how long this game lasts in people's collections. We're going to see how long until people start to sell them'
Stern's pricing strategy has eliminated scalpers by making Stern itself the scalper, charging $13,000 day-one pricing for LEs
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Are you happy that they remove the scalpers from the market and Stern turned themselves into the scalpers?'
The Beatles licensing deal was the previous record at approximately $1 million; Willy Wonka cost Jersey Jack approximately $1.2 million
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'The previous record for most for a license was Beatles at like a million. The rumor is that Willy Wonka cost Jersey Jack $1.2 million'

Notable Quotes

“FOMO is not dead. What is dead in pinball is this. People are not going to spend these kinds of prices on a game unless it's a dream theme.”
Kaneda @ ~2:00 — Core thesis about Venom sales; reframes the narrative from dead FOMO to pricing resistance on B-themes
“Are you happy that they remove the scalpers from the market and Stern turned themselves into the scalpers?”
Kaneda @ ~6:30 — Strongest criticism of Stern's pricing strategy; positions Stern as beneficiary of anti-scalping measures
“The only opportunity we're ever gonna get to get prices to go back down a little bit, not a lot, but even a little bit. The only power we have is to say no.”
Kaneda @ ~7:00 — Call-to-action for community resistance; appeals to collective bargaining power against pricing
“The only thing that's going to survive this is Keith Elwin games and All American Amusements themes that are done right. That's it.”
Kaneda @ ~12:00 — Industry prediction; identifies which game design/licensing strategies can weather oversaturation and high pricing
“They killed the golden goose and we're just at the middle of witnessing that golden goose in the sky plummeting to the ground.”
Kaneda @ ~47:00 — Apocalyptic closing statement; summarizes industry trajectory and pricing consequences
“If he doesn't want to promote the game and he doesn't want to get people excited about the game, then why should I get excited about the game?”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Criticism of Jersey Jack game designer's public absence as red flag for game quality/appeal
“Distributors are not gonna be able to say no. They have to keep buying from Stern to ensure they get their allotments of like LEs and premiums.”
Kaneda @ ~8:30 — Insight into distributor supply chain dynamics and leverage imbalance
“You've got an industry that's overpriced, you've got an industry that's going to oversaturate itself. That's a recipe for disaster.”

Entities

Stern PinballcompanyKanedaperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Keith Elwinperson Joe Kamnikowperson John Borg

Signals

$
market_signal: Venom LE at $13,000 experiencing slower-than-expected sales; community delaying purchases; distributors resorting to aggressive Facebook marketing suggesting desperation
high · Kaneda: 'you get hit up 18, 19 different ways from all these distributors'; 'Distributors right now are funny. They're like sold out. Then like an hour later, we got a few more.'
$
market_signal: Too many game releases in 2024 competing for limited buyer capital and home space
high · James Bond, Foo Fighters, Godfather, Galactic Tank Force, Pulp Fiction, Venom, plus Lebowski and Centaur mentioned as competing demands; Kaneda: 'There's too much content happening in the pinball space'
?
licensing_signal: Harry Potter licensing deal collapsed; Joe Kamnikow prepared to offer $4 million but rights holder demanded $10 million for full asset package
medium · Kaneda citing Knapp Arcade: 'Joe Kamnikow was ready to spend $4 million on the Harry Potter license' but 'to get all of the assets that you'd want for Harry Potter would be $10 million'
?
machine_intel: He-Man pinball rumored to be in development; belief that American Pinball lost license; John Borg believed to be making He-Man for Stern; Jason Knapp/Joe Balcer bet on which manufacturer
medium · Kaneda: 'my sources tell me John Borg is actually making He-Man pinball for Stern Pinball now' and 'there's a bit of a bet that's happening between Jason Knapp and Joe Balcer'
?
product_launch: Stern Venom pinball officially streamed on Deadflip; Pro and Premium shown; sales slower than expected for $13,000 LE price point

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.084

0:00

Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Kaneda is on the mend, ladies and gentlemen. I have this thing called like hand-foot-mouth disease that Killian gave me. Hey, let me tell you right now, this is the worst thing ever. I would never wish this on my worst enemy. Basically what it does is it gives open sores inside your mouth. Think of canker sores all throughout the side and the back of your mouth. And then your hands get a rash and your feet get a rash. It's horrible. And there's no remedy for it. You just have to wait it out seven to 10 days and it's super contagious. So I've been quarantining in this bedroom thinking about this pinball podcast, but I'm better enough to talk to you right now. Now, alright, so we've got a lot to talk about. I haven't given you my real feelings on Venom. We've seen the stream. We've seen the dead flip stream of the pro and the premium. I've been reading everybody's feedback. We just heard about Harry Potter. We've got rumors about who's making He-Man. We've got rumors about Spooky Pinball's next theme or possible theme. We're going to talk about all of that in less than 40 minutes on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. So where do we want to start? Let's start with Venom. There's a lot of conversation happening around Venom and I've been reading everybody's commentary. I've been hearing what people have been saying and there's a lot of people making some very bold predictions about this game. I think the one that's just wrong, I want to start with this one, that FOMO is dead in pinball. We need to stop thinking that is true. Because people aren't running to buy Venom at $13,000 Does not mean that FOMO is dead across the entire pinball hobby everybody. Look what happened to Pulp Fiction. That game sold out in one day and you can't find an LE for less than what they're charging for one. FOMO is not dead. What is dead in pinball is this. People are not going to spend these kinds of prices on a game unless it's a dream theme. Okay? You can go get two day new in box. Think about how much energy The U. S. M. E. B. A. C. F. G. V. A. I. V. E. I. Last time we got a AAA theme was what? Like Stranger Things? And we saw what happened with Stranger Things at launch. And so I think everyone's waiting for these juggernauts. Look, some bad news for Harry Potter fans. Problem with pinball at these prices is if you don't give people that AAA theme, it really makes people hesitate a lot nowadays that two premiums are $20,000 and two LEs are $26,000. People are going to start hitting pause because it's not true. The PINBALL that's gone up in price so much, it's everything else out in the world. And I know that each and every one of you has not doubled your income over the last five years, but the cost of a Stern LE is double what it used to be. But I always thought Venom was going to be a sort of B theme. It was never going to be a theme that everybody just threw money at. So I'm not surprised about the reception to the Venom LE prices. I also think people are getting kinda tired of the constant and endless spam from all these distributors. Have you been on Facebook when a new game comes out? It's like you get hit up 18, 19 different ways from all these distributors letting you know that your life will be complete if you take off their hands, their allotment of Venom Premium Pros and LEs. And I think for most of us out there, if you just wait it out, you're gonna be able to get those Pros, Premiums, and LEs. Like, why would you buy this game now? Why would you buy it before you get a chance to play it? And even though we've seen a stream on the game, I don't think that's enough to make people say, yup, I'm gonna write a check now. And people are saying this. They are being asked to pay in full now for a Venom LE that they're not gonna get for two months. Why would you do that? I think people are getting smarter. Because if you hold on to your $13,000 and you just wait two months, in two months we might see the next game from In two months we might see a Twilight Zone or Big Bang Bar released. In two months something else might happen in the pinball world. And why wouldn't you just keep your options open? And I think that's what we're seeing more and more from people in this hobby. I'm just gonna keep my options open. None of these B-themed games are ever gonna be hard to get. And they're never gonna go up in price. I see people saying like they're happy that Stern raised the prices because they took the scalpers out of the market. Let me ask all of you a question right now. Are you happy or they remove the scalpers from the market and Stern turn themselves into the scalpers people? You see what they did? Now they're saying that every single LE that comes out is worth $13,000 on day one. That is total hogwash. They've taken all the money that they used to pass on to the customer. So I mean this when I say it. For all of you out there who cried about scalping and flipping, congratulations. The You're laughing all the way to the bank that they're charging us $10,000 for a freaking unlimited premium. Ten grand for an unlimited premium. And there's no going back. This is it. And that's why they don't care that these sales aren't flying off the shelves on day one. They don't care. You know how much more money Stern is making on a $7,000 pro? Did everyone forget that Tron LE was like $5,700 bucks? Stern LEs used to be $6,500 then they went up to $7,500. Now you're spending interview好创, Native,Bree ,Zetti Quy,WPPRить Fawad, Nordic Weekendenchwad, F outward adapter to the web by driver from the born girl driver of the future than most other things and it one of the most unnecessary items that the problem it not food it not blue lose its knots to make it through this crazy world it up in the mission and each and every one of you owns a ton of pinball machines that are amazing And you know you don need more And I think that's what's happening with Venom sales. A lot of you are like, the game looks fun. And the game does look fun. I saw the streams, the game's really fast. Those ball ejects on the sides are kind of interesting. They eject the ball before the ball even makes it there. So the game's actually faster than it could technically be in real life. It does make for a very fast game. I think Stern is trying some really interesting stuff with the code on this game, more like a role playing game where you could start off where you left off. They haven't done this before. I like that they're trying new things in pinball. I do worry a little bit that they're turning pinball into video games. And for those of you saying, oh, they're going to hit us with downloadable content, where have you been, people? They've already hit us with downloadable content. Another thing that could be interesting is that the game is not going to be $5. It's going to be $500. You know what their downloadable content is people? It's a $1000 Godzilla topper where they know the topper costs just $500 bucks and then they're charging you $500 additionally to get the downloadable code. Stern is trojan-horsing so much stuff into this hobby. It makes nobody feel good and the distributors have to pretend like this is great, like bye-bye-bye, like this is the best thing to happen. targets facing I'm going to be a little out of hand and I want to ask the question right now. Are we learning anything from this launch? Do we think Stern is going to learn anything from this launch? Well, look, I'm very proud of many of you out there. I am. I'm very proud of a lot of you. I've heard more and more people say I'm not buying. I've heard more and more people saying I'm not going in on an le. I've even heard people like pin monk say I've canceled my le order because I'm not locking up my money with Stern for two months. I'm not going to do it. I'm just gonna wait. I think that's the way to go because here's the thing. The only opportunity we're ever gonna get to get prices to go back down a little bit, not a lot, but even a little bit. The only power we have is to say no. And if you say no, here's what's gonna happen. Distributors are not gonna be able to say no. They have to keep buying from Stern to ensure they get their allotments of like LEs and premiums. But the problem now is distributors are starting to stockpile The First One So I Want To Make This A Story My Own Story So I Want To Make This Story Mine I think it's really interesting that Stern will not let a distributor advertise list a price below map pricing, but I think that's going to have to change too coming up. My point is this, we all know the hobby got out of hand, we all know that Stern became the ultimate scalper in pinball, we all know that these machines do not really provide $13,000 in enjoyment. Thank you for listening.

10:34

$ Nos I'm worried that this is what's going to happen. They're going to overcharge their customers. That's what Disney did. They charged people way too much money to get into the parks and it turned people off and people started to think twice. The one thing you don't want with an impulse buy like a pinball machine is you don't want these men to think twice about what they're doing. But I think more and more of us are thinking twice. So they're overcharging their customer. Then you make too much content. That's the other List Pen Polat 5 dollar glasses. 4 Clan & 5 nights to play rueGames Marte Watch out the screen if you like or hate these rivalry. You see, it used to work when an LE was $7,500. This three cornerstones a year, it worked because you could buy all three of those LEs every year and make money on them or pass them on without any loss for the same price now of two Stern LEs. So this is going to be the problem that happens in the entire industry. There's just going to be too many games that get released a year. I mean think about it James Bond, Foo Fighters, Godfather, Galactic Tank Force, Pulp Fiction, Venom. You've got all of these games. I didn't even talk about people might want a Lebowski. There's all these things going on. They might want a Centaur. They might want this. They might want that. There is too much content happening in the pinball space and there's not enough money to go around and there's not enough space in people's homes to absorb all of these games. So then what happens? This is a very important topic for the next few days. I know that there are a lot of people who are going to want to do something new, but I also want to make sure that they are committed to something that is old and not old. I don't even talk about the 1969 Scooby Doo's they have to make. So you've got an industry that's overpriced, you've got an industry that's going to over saturate itself. That's a recipe for disaster. The prices are too high and the volume is too much. That means demand just evaporates. And the only thing that can survive this, you know this, the only thing that's going to survive this is Keith Elwin games and AAA themes that are done right. That's it. You need a AAA theme that's done right or you need Keith Elwin, everything else. Come on, Eric Minier, you know when people say Eric's like the savior of Jersey Jack, he's had three games at Jersey Jack Pinball. Two of them have flopped. I a fan of Eric Guns and Roses but there no denyinging the fact that when they banked on him his games have not flown off the shelf So yeah he gotta get a Triple theme going Is Elton John gonna be the answer I don think so There no way based on the vibe that Elton John is gonna have the AND I do applaud each and every one of you that has listened to Kaneda and you are waiting and seeing and you're not running at every one of these B themes. Alright, speaking of not a B theme, we heard today that Harry Potter is not gonna happen or at least it's not gonna happen the way you want it to happen. We heard from Naps Arcade that Joe Kamnikow was ready to spend $4 million on the Harry Potter license. Now, the previous record for most for a license was Beatles at like a million. The rumor is that Willy Wonka cost JerseyJack $1.2 million, so he had $4 million on the table and they said no. And then we're hearing now, this is crazy, that to get all of the assets that you'd want for Harry Potter would be $10 million. So it's not happening. If it does happen, it's going to be some Hogwarts fantasy adventure game that's based on the properties from Harry Potter, but nothing from the movie or the characters that The bet favors him right now. I'll tell you why. And the bet is for 500 bucks and whoever loses will donate $500 to Project Pinball. Now here's why I think Jason Knapp might have the advantage on this bet. Is that Joe Balser was working on He-Man after he did Hot Wheels. I know this for a fact. That American Pinball had the He-Man license back then. I heard that they lost the license and that is why I think they might have lost the He-Man license. and Jim And my sources tell me John Borgamborg is actually making he-man pinball for Stern Pinball now look if I were to ask each and every one of you right now Who would you rather make He-man? American Pinball or John Borg and Stern obviously we're all hoping it is Stern pinball But that is the bet and I think this is Gonna happen sometime next year We will see a He-Man pinball machine. If it is American pinball, is it gonna be Ryan McQuaid's game? I keep hearing that Ryan McQuaid's game is based on an old video game or arcade game that was also a comic or something like that or had an animated series and so that might be He-Man but I want to take a wild guess and Kaneda is one to take wild guess in the world of pinball The Podcasting here's my guess because there was an old Sega game that was actually based on he-man But wasn't actually he-man it was like their version of he-man and if you know Ryan McQuaid He loves Sega he loves Sonic the Hedgehog so Kaneda's pinball podcast is gonna go out on a limb and predict that Ryan McQuaid's game at American Pinball is no other than the The Arcade and Sega Genesis Classic Altered Beasts because Altered Beasts is based on He-Man. So that is my guess that Ryan McQuaid is making Altered Beasts Pinball. Does anybody want it? I don't know. I don't think so. What is going on over there at American Pinball? But before we get to Galactic Tank Force, let's talk about Spooky Pinball. So I broke the rumor via visual imagery that Spooky Pinball has the license to make the The Looney Tunes Pinball Machine If you like fertility work, please help this called Help The Run with our Amazon does the INTAGINAL If you like birazilan** you have been helped by the показait in hơn권 dan the for invect status and I'm not sure if you'd get all of those properties because I think some of those properties have been licensed by other people. But I don't know man, I think Spooky Pinball, I think you have to look at the target audience of pinball and 40 to 60 year old men and really ask yourselves, Looney Tunes, like really? Are we doing this? Shouldn't we try to go after something more adult, even stuff from the 80s and 90s, stuff that has a more mature theme? Alright, what else is going on in the pinball world? So we covered off on Stern. We know Jersey Jack Godfather. The CEs are finally making their way to customers and they're beautiful machines. I'm not going to take anything away from those machines. They look absolutely gorgeous. For $15,000 they should. Now it's going to get really interesting to see what happens as all of these men cough over 15k and they start to play the Godfather. We're going to see how long this game lasts in people's collections. We're going to see how long until people start to sell them. And then we're going to see if the game starts to become a falling knife like Godfather Ellie is. I still deep down do not think Jersey Jack is going to make 1000 Godfather CEs. I don't think they allotted all of them. I don't think they made 1000 Toy Story CEs. I don't think so. You just don't see them in collections enough to say a thousand of them went out there. But the truth is this, that ship has sailed. There's nothing they're going to do to get people excited again in The Godfather. It doesn't matter. I think a lot of you out there who are curious about the game, you'll pick up an LE for 10. You'll pick up a CE for 12 if you want it in just a few months. We know this game is headed south. Nothing is going so let start I going to be the dead horse but for a company that makes one game every 18 months we expect more and I think Jack Winari has led this company astray with two terrible theme selections in a row and they need to climb out of the gutter and if it Elton John I really worried I am really worried and I think we going to see Elton John this year and man it almost August like the year is going to go pretty quickly Replacement of the factors in contact with Ant التيhan Dian exits Open Where do I go? Select note Even You have a 45 minute photo Up in Porque you killed me that was all we are here this Caneda remains Public Enemy Number 1 to the Executives at Jersey Jack Pinball.