Episode 868: "Should Dealers/Distros Fight For Lower Prices?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·22m 12s·held·Oct 30, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda calls for dealer/distributor action against escalating pinball prices and flop-prone recent releases.

Summary

Kaneda argues that pinball dealers and distributors should collectively pressure manufacturers to lower prices, which have risen dramatically since COVID. He contends that $13,000 LEs are unsustainable, cites recent high-profile flops (Toy Story 4, The Godfather), and speculates that upcoming games like Elton John and Jaws may suffer from overpricing. He also discusses rumors of Jersey Jack's Matrix license, production issues at various manufacturers, and the declining excitement in the collector market.

Key Claims

Stern LE machines should be priced at $10,000 maximum, not the current $13,000+
high confidence · Kaneda directly states pricing opinion based on market observation of Venom LE at $9,995
Jersey Jack Pinball has two recent commercial failures: Toy Story 4 and The Godfather, both sitting as unsold inventory
medium confidence · Kaneda asserts dealers/distros are 'sitting on so much unsold inventory for both of those titles' but does not provide sales figures
Jersey Jack Pinball has the license to the first Matrix movie and is working on a game coming Summer 2024
medium confidence · Kaneda states 'the rumor I heard...Jersey Jack Pinball does have the license to the first Matrix movie' and cites Jack Guarnari as information source
Barrels of Fun has two pinball themes secured; Labyrinth is one of them
high confidence · Kaneda reports hearing this news but notes uncertainty about the second theme (speculates Princess Bride)
Chicago Gaming Company (CGC) lost the license to make more Planetary Games versions
low confidence · Kaneda states 'I also heard that CGC lost the license' but immediately contradicts this by saying someone is 'lying and not being truthful'
Ryan White guaranteed to a customer that CGC will make another run of Medieval Madness games
medium confidence · Kaneda cites private text message posted on Facebook from Ryan White with guarantee of future Medieval Madness production run
Elton John Pinball will likely be priced between $12,000-$15,000 by Jersey Jack Pinball
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates what JJP 'is planning' based on pattern of recent pricing but acknowledges this is inference not confirmation
Spooky Pinball's next game will be announced around TPF (March) and is either Texas Chainsaw Massacre or Looney Tunes
low confidence · Kaneda states 'I do think' indicating speculation; notes he saw something ('I saw that') but bases final claim on pattern inference

Notable Quotes

“A Stern LE should be $10,000. It should not be any more than that.”
Kaneda @ ~2:00 — Core argument about pricing ceiling; reflects his position on market-appropriate LE pricing
“Every single person, the other 999 people who bought a Venom LE, if they even sold that many, now realize their game has lost so much money.”
Kaneda @ ~4:30 — Illustrates depreciation concern and collector sentiment about overpricing
“Why is every single game priced exactly the same? How is Pokemon going to be the same price as Venom?”
Kaneda @ ~7:45 — Criticizes lack of theme-based pricing differentiation; argues premium themes should command premium pricing
“The rumor I heard is that Jersey Jack Pinball does have the license to the first Matrix movie...coming out in the Summer of 2024”
Kaneda @ ~12:15 — Unconfirmed rumor about major upcoming JJP title; sourced from 'Jack Guarnari talks to people'
“I have so many friends who hit me up and say, Hey, if it was $9,000, I would absolutely take it for a spin, but I'm not going to spend $12,000 on it.”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Anecdotal market feedback showing price elasticity and demand sensitivity in collector market
“Stern didn't put the assets into Jurassic Park 'cause they didn't wanna pay for them. That's it. They could have if they wanted to.”
Kaneda @ ~18:45 — Opinion on Stern cost-cutting decisions; reflects broader concern about asset investment in game design
“If you're going to spend $10,000 I might as well spend $13,000 and that's the psychology. It's not easy to keep yourself calm.”
Kaneda @ ~21:30 — Analysis of collector psychology driving LE purchasing despite poor value proposition
“They basically doubled the price of what an LE is over the last like five to six years and it's crazy they got away with it”
Kaneda — Key observation about price inflation trajectory over half-decade; implies market tolerated extreme escalation

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyChicago Gaming Companycompany American Pinballcompany Dutch Pinballcompany

Signals

$
market_signal: Kaneda documents LE pricing doubled over 5-6 years (from ~$6,500 to $13,000+); argues current prices unsustainable and market will correct
high · Direct observation of Venom LE at $9,995 and historical pricing comparisons; notes Godzilla at $10,500, Guns N' Roses LE at $9,000-$9,500
?
product_concern: Multiple community reports of demand collapse due to high pricing; Kaneda cites friends willing to buy at $9,000 but not $12,000+
medium · Anecdotal feedback from 'so many friends'; speculation that Elton John will be another 'short run game' due to pricing resistance
?
machine_intel: Jersey Jack Pinball rumored to hold license to first Matrix movie with Summer 2024 release; sourced from Jack Guarnari
medium · 'The rumor I heard...Jersey Jack Pinball does have the license to the first Matrix movie...coming out in the Summer of 2024'
?
product_concern: Jersey Jack Pinball's Toy Story 4 and The Godfather reportedly unsold in dealer/distributor inventory; creates pressure for Elton John success
medium · Kaneda states dealers/distros 'sitting on so much unsold inventory for both of those titles' and frames Elton John as needed 'hit game'
~
sentiment_shift: Kaneda observes loss of excitement in collector market; used to be 'super excited,' now 'I don't feel that vibe anymore'
high · 'years ago, people used to be super excited. They couldn't wait...Now, I don't feel that vibe anymore'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.067

0:00

Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Happy Monday everybody. I love doing this show on Monday mornings. This topic of today's podcast is going to be very simply this. I want to talk about dealers and distributors. And do they have an obligation to sort of help reset this pinball marketplace? They're the real customers of most pinball machines. It's not me and you. It's them who has to place these large orders with these companies. And over the last few years, ever since covid, the pinball prices have gone through the roof. And how come the dealers and the distributors are not getting together to meet with these manufacturers and give them some? We're seeing major companies like Ford and Tesla lower the prices of their products yet pinball machine prices they haven't lowered their products yet pinball machine prices they haven't lowered they keep going up and up and up and I woke up this morning to see a Venom LE for sale for $9,995. A low play game barely out of the box. Someone unboxes it and loses $10,000. Thanks for watching. I'd be gladasi here. Have a lovely day. Bye bye.

1:56

The A Stern LE should be $10,000. It should not be any more than that. When Godzilla came out and it was $10,500, Stern didn't leave the price there very long at all. They brought it up again for Rush. They've been raising the price ever since and I'm sorry but stand over a Stern machine. Do you see a $13,000 device? And yet who's ordering these games? It's the dealers and the distros. How long can all these dealers and distros survive ordering all these Venoms? How can they survive trying to place an order on games like Elton John? And I feel like if this pinball marketplace doesn't start to settle down a little bit, if it doesn't start to even itself out, and the market will dictate where these things should be priced. But is this not the market dictating that a Venom LE never should have been priced at $13,000? And once you make a thousand LEs, you're not going to sell them for that much money. And now every single person, the other 999 people who bought a Venom LE, if they even sold that many, now realize their game has lost so much money. Let me just ask a question. Do you think that dealers and distributors are happy that pinball prices are this high? How can they be happy about it? You know, years ago, people used to be super excited. They couldn't wait to get their hands on any new game that came Now, I don't feel that vibe anymore and I don't understand why they don't get together to meet with the manufacturers and put more pressure. I don't know if this is collusion or not if you're allowed to do this, but let me use an example like Elton John. You're telling me if Jersey Jack Pinball is going to release this game and they need their top distributors to sell this to their customers, who has the greatest line of sight into what the customer has? Surely it's your dealers and distributors. They're the ones who are hearing from every one of your customers. I'm not hearing from all of your customers. It's these people. They've got the email list of all the customers. We get spammed on Facebook. We get email blasts saying, hey, this game is available. Do you want one? Distributors and dealers are going out and even doing phone calls to some of their customers saying, hey, do you want one? Do you want an Elton John collector's Edition? And the reason they now have to work harder at it is because the games are so much more expensive. The themes have not been take my money now themes. And now these dealers and distros have to figure out how many of these in Taiwan Jáo H één alará che azánÍ, which raspidente aná Caruso Áine wá loro vacc Zwearná, los Kingdom Summer Gestion rounds Danide Goddard gýnà Qué accordance de la Transición origins delante del Prodigio, soprattutto para que seaman at night Mats. Un salto de el Acient de Winter, Winter Management, Winter Development Globalheit, Winter Vielennasபardeş, Winter Universal, Other motivating viruses, Counterplanetary Source, bobbas, म של pursούμε Fuji, Chaw Puis Duals, Kises Producer, Headspace, Nebo contributed, If you JerseyJack Pinball you now have two flops in a row in Toy Story 4 and in games like The Godfather Your dealers and distros are sitting on so much unsold inventory for both of those titles So what do you need to happen on this new title You need it to be a hit game And if you JerseyJack Pinball you seeing that people are not going to just throw money at a to machine and not think about it And you whiffed with titles like Toy Story 4 and The Godfather and all of the conversation happening around Elton John Pinball hasn been super positive Every time people put up polls how excited are you to buy an Elton John Pinball machine It doesn poll very well And so what did this smart move be that Jersey Jack reevaluated sehen mor a Inami Zusammen S ni ne g f Point of interest to the Hawthorn TV or Elton John or anything else that's fuckin like that, and they need a hit game. And they're like look we have Elton John coming out next and we're planning to price it between $12,000-$15,000 like the previous two games. Now surely if they had a meeting like this, the distros would have said wait a minute. We can't do this. You can't price this theme which is not in high demand, we can't price it the same as those past two games because it's not gonna work. How many of these will sell? Especially if we want to say there's going to be a thousand collector's editions at $15K, it's not going to work. We need to try something new. We either need to try to limit the amount of games we're going to make to justify this price, or we're going to need to reduce the price on day one. And they should run some scenarios. Like what are the scenarios if we lower the price of the Ellie to $9,500 for Elton John, how many do we think we're going to sell versus $12,000? Is Jerseyjack even running these scenarios? Or are they just acting like every game they launch is going to be a frenzy like Guns N' Roses but everybody forgets Guns N' Roses was $9,000 for an LE or $9,500 and it was $12,500 for the collector's edition. So the last time Jerseyjack Pinball had any frenzy to buy one of its games, it was a much better theme than the last three and the prices were much lower. So why would they take the prices so much further north? If you're a distributor, how can you really feel good about carrying these products for this company? I mean not only the Jersey Jack Pinball undermine its distros and dealers by selling directly, but why aren't there more meetings like this? And it's not just Jersey Jack. I mean Stern has so many distributors and dealers, and why would they want prices to get this high? Do you think their margins are much better now? I don't. You know, and this is like this dirty little secret about pinballs. We're not supposed to know what a dealer spends on a product. And the whole relationship between distributors and dealers and Sternpinball, it's also a little bit vague to me. So if you're a dealer, do you have to buy your game from a distributor or are you buying your product directly from Stern? I think you have to buy it from one of Stern's big distributors. But there's just all these middlemen involved in getting a machine from a factory in Chicago to your house or to your barcade in your location. And if I'm a distributor, I want volume, right? I want to be able to sell games easily. So I'm going to want AAA themes. Now look, shouldn't a AAA theme carry more price than a B or C level theme that not many people want? Why is every single game priced exactly the same? How is Pokemon going to be the same price as Venom? It's apples to oranges in terms of how much people want that theme. So I just think something's going to have to give sooner than later or else, you know what's going to happen? The more and more Sets up a successful pinball booth, and they're back in the game. And the more we see all of our friends unboxing these games, losing a ton of money, the more people are just gonna wait and see. They're not gonna buy right now. And I do think these distributors have an obligation to meet with these manufacturers and figure something out. There has to be a middle ground. And I think we went too high. It's obviously too high. Hm? Do you have the time? Are you in CBC for some conference of Mark Zuckerberg's latest research? Tell me more. Never stop a conversation. Turn flash Siemens Ten says that my f Randy wasn't cut off from a lot of shows in one year talking with me and talking with Shrest können German for the brains he has done for years. What did you say? The plan is that Stern's going to make an anniversary edition of Jaws next year. So are you going to go in and spend

10:17

$13,000 on a 1,000 run LE of a game that they are most likely going to one up just a year later. And the rumor I heard, and guess where these rumors come from because Jack Guarnari talks to people, the rumor I heard is that Jersey Jack Pinball does have the license to the first Matrix movie. The Game I'm Hearing Satan Is Workinging On That Will Come Out In The Summer Of 2024 So Now You Know This Right The Matrix From Jersey Jack Now A Theme Thank you for watching Come out within a year Are you really going to go run and buy Elton John right now Are you going to go secure a nonrefundable deposit No you not No you not And it doesn matter how much pans are freaking Iceman try to hype that thread The truth is hardly anybody going to buy the game It going to be another short run game because dealers and distros are not going to order a ton of Elton John because they will sit there unsold And the main reason besides the fact that it Elton John the main reason it not I'm not really selling. It's overpriced. I have so many friends who hit me up and say, Hey, if it was $9,000, I would absolutely just take it for a whirl. I would take it for a spin, but I'm not going to spend $12,000 on it, unbox it, and then the damn thing is worth $9,000 in three months. And everybody knows that's the way it's going to go. We're seeing it happen with Godfather. It happened with Toy Story. Why would it not happen with this pin as well? The end of this year and into next year. You know, the ultimately the market will win. Ultimately, the market will show everybody where a pinball machine should be priced at. And these aren't even used games, right? There's no way a cardboard box should be worth two to $3,000. How can you with a straight face buy a game for $13,000 and know you could have the same exact game in basically mint condition if you just waited a month or two, you could have the same exact game Everybody throws a reunion at Sailite at display of painting thick Sty. Yes or eh? You have your own pinball shooting pin, but is Jaws going to give you enough of what you expect for this much money? Because people's expectations for Godzilla were not that high, because most people out there are not Godzilla fanatics, and I think Jaws has more of a fandom and a fanbase. And if they don't nail it, I could see a lot of people for the first time being truly upset about what Keith Ellen has brought into the pinball space. It's probably not going to happen, it's probably going to be like Jurassic Park. You know, the other thing about Elwyn, it's like you're not allowed to criticize anything he does. You're not allowed to criticize any move Stern makes. I mean, look, Stern didn't put the assets into Jurassic Park cuz they didn't wanna pay for them. That's it. They could have if they wanted to, but why would they? Because if we keep buying when they don't put what you want into a game, why would they need to change their approach? But that's gonna be a seminal moment this December to see what the reaction to Jaws is. But deep down inside, I feel like all of us are feeling this way. Every single game can't be this expensive. I mean the pros are now like $6500, $7000 with shipping for most people. Then you've got these $9500, $10,000 premiums and then the LEs are just like really the dumb buy. They really are. But man it's like you know when you're a collector you want the top tier model of a game. You don't want to have like second fiddle. If you're going to spend $10,000 I might as well spend $13,000 and that's the psychology It's not easy to keep yourself calm. Yes Jihan's ability to trust a football team is what's related to this podcast if you're paying for that backpoint. Which means you sold over НапIDOL pygmy to pay back UseCash once on month-end interest cost of purchase Achievance lojas, I'm going to be a really interesting end of 2023 into early 2024. I don't want to see pinball go down this road where the item itself basically prices out Years of streamingолькоatta юмотря có ciao, kaikki helloaw е

16:50

bist Kaw With You Rui Can you find me on YouTube? As if there's no Jesus say I have no idea, but I think they're finished with the mermaid editions of the game and I can't imagine many people ordered the regular version of Fathom. Dutch Pinball continues to crank out the big Lebowskis. I can't wait to the day where all the early achievers are made whole. I've had some people reach out to me about the Ellen Ripley version of Alien. I haven't seen a gameplay stream with all of the clips. What I'll say is this, obviously it's a great move to put her into the game. I do feel bad for the Highway Pinball owners who will not be able to get the Ellen Ripley software. I do think that's a little crummy because the Pinball Brothers basically took over Highway Pinball, basically made those games that they sold to people and now they're going to cut bait. It uses different hardware and software than the Highway game. I can understand why they don't want to continue to support Andrew Highway's products. I don't blame them. It's just a crappy scenario if you have one of those games. Because there was something cool about owning the Highway version. The cabinet was unique. You have the screen in the playfield which was really cool. And there's people out there that are like, oh the Highway version plays better than the Pinball Brother version. I can't imagine why there'd be a ton of difference. Maybe it's the flipper feel. I don't know. Isn't it the same exact design? If you've owned both versions of the game and you want to help Kaneda figure out what the differences are, please hit me up. What else is going on in the world of pinball this week? Turner Pinball, why does anybody even care about Turner Pinball? I don't understand this. Nobody's buying one. You're not buying one. So let's move on from them. You know, Spooky Pinball continues to get Scooby Doo. I think we're going to see Spooky Pinball's next game sometime around TPF, sometime around March. I do think it's going to be Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Looney Tunes. I think it's going to be the weirdest shared design layout ever in terms of theme. I saw that American Pinball won for best booth at Chicago Pinball Expo. Okay, cool. Like I don't know what David Fix is going to be able to do to sell more of these Galactic Tank Force games. Do you think people were buying that game left and right at the show? Look, I get it. I don't see all the campiness with the characters and the tank and the ice cream and outer space, but I just don't see this thing moving. I don't see anybody buying this game. I don't see anyone saying, hey, I just ordered a Galactic Tank Force. It's going to end up becoming one of these obscure titles that very few people own. It's crazy, right? In the end, they're not even going to make more than probably 500 of these games. Why can't we just get better themes? Like why can't we just get better themes that you never want to sell? That's where I'm at with pinball these days. I don't even want to buy stuff thinking about the resale anymore. At these prices, I only want to buy stuff that I want to keep, that I want to enjoy, that I don't want to live without. And that's cool. So I'm cool waiting on stuff. I saw that Mr. Sharp wrote a pin side post from Play Mechanics about Pulp Fiction, and it still just doesn't feel like anything is officially coming from this company. And you might have saw on my Facebook, I posted a private text message between a customer and Ryan White in which Ryan basically guarantees there's going to be another run of Medieval Madness games from CGC. I also heard that CGC lost the license to make more versions of Planetary Games. So somebody is lying and someone is not being truthful. But I'll say this, if you're thinking of buying a Medieval Madness Royal Edition for $20,000, I would just wait it out because there's a good chance they're going to make more. I have no idea what is going on at CGC. They're the worst pinball company when it comes to communication. They're so bad at customer service. Everything about this company is absolutely atrocious other than they build some of the best quality pinball machines in all of pinball. Why does it have to be this weird compromise? Why does Doug over at CGC run the company this way? It's so weird. Everybody have a happy Halloween tomorrow. It's going to be a fun day tomorrow. If you have kids, take them trick or treating. I can't wait to take Killian walking around. He's going to be dressed like a little lion, I think, or Woody from Toy Story. Everybody, we will be back this week with more episodes of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. And if you're new to the show, I'll give you a shout out on the next episode. I know it's the end of the month so you're gonna get that little bill from Kaneda's Pinball Podcast but trust me, I don't see anyone else with Patreon pages even giving you this much content. It's crazy. This is still the best bang for buck in all of pinball. We'll talk to you soon. Gio Neff.