Where Does Pinball Go From Here? $30,000 JJP POTC CE - Do Themes Matter? (Ep. 47)

A Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·25m 11s·analyzed·Mar 10, 2021

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

$30K Pirates CE sale suggests B-tier themes can drive premium pricing if game design is exceptional.

Summary

Host discusses his machine lineup changes, details a defective Guns N' Roses CE purchase, and analyzes the $30,000 Pirates of the Caribbean CE sale as evidence that premium pinball may not require A-tier licensing. He argues B-tier themes with exceptional design can command collector prices, speculates on Toy Story's inevitable sellout, and proposes Doctor Strange as an underrated B-tier theme with enormous potential.

Key Claims

A Pirates of the Caribbean CE sold for $30,000 on the secondary market
high confidence · Host explicitly references catching wind of this 'just last week' and frames it as a recent, concrete market event
Pirates was not an in-demand theme when announced in late 2017 and did not sell well out of the gate
high confidence · Host lived through that era, recalls community skepticism about theme choice, notes game 'went off the line as quickly as it did'
Both Pirates LE and CE consistently sell for $20,000+
high confidence · Host states 'they're both selling for either right at $20,000 or above $20,000' and notes this compares to Magic Girl, Supreme in secondary market value
Jersey Jack is severely backlogged on Guns N' Roses, with March orders not shipping until May
high confidence · Host references specific dates: 'people that had LDs that paid back in October, and here we are March 10th as of today, and they're not getting it until May'
Toy Story is an imminent release and will sell out day one at any reasonable price point
medium confidence · Host calls it 'the worst kept secret in pinball right now' and predicts instant sellout even at $15,000 CE price
Inflation-adjusted MSRP for KISS Pro would be around $6,400 in current dollars
medium confidence · Host references checking inflation numbers but admits not having chart in front of him; 'I'd have to go back and look at my charts'
Designer names like Keith Elwin can sell games regardless of theme
medium confidence · Host speculates 'Keith Elwin's a rock star. People will buy his games no matter what the theme is'
Received Guns N' Roses CE with visible playfield damage (chip and missing wood) straight out of box
high confidence · Host describes in detail: 'a chip in the play field and a piece of the wood missing from the play field at the scoop' and 'without even one game played'

Notable Quotes

“I legitimately had the only GNR in the world a concert in a box with no lights”
Host @ ~09:30 — Humorous characterization of defective machine; highlights QC issues despite premium pricing
“Maybe, just maybe, theme might not be as important as we think when it comes to very expensive, high-level machines.”
Host @ ~20:45 — Core thesis of episode; challenges industry assumption about licensing importance
“If Stern came out and said, Keith Elwin is creating this unique game... you probably sell out all your spots.”
Host @ ~27:00 — Demonstrates designer-driven demand separate from theme licensing
“Pirates wasn't an in-demand theme. It just wasn't.”
Host @ ~15:30 — Reinforces central evidence for premise that exceptional games transcend theme demand
“I'm probably not spending that much money. I'm probably waiting back and making sure if I own a Pirates, I'm probably selling it and getting my money out of it right now.”
Host @ ~24:00 — Shows rational secondary market strategy; if theme is weak, resale now while premium prices hold
“You really could create a total cinematic type experience with pinball [with Doctor Strange].”
Host @ ~42:30 — Justifies unexpected theme recommendation with design/thematic potential linking to Theater of Magic

Entities

Pirates of the Caribbeangame Guns N' Rosesgame Stranger Thingsgame Iron Maidengame Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesgame Toy Storygame

Signals

?
business_signal: Jersey Jack severely backlogged on Guns N' Roses; October LD holders not receiving units until May (7-month delay)
high · Host specifies dates: 'people that had LDs that paid back in October, and here we are March 10th as of today, and they're not getting it until May'
?
business_signal: Stern's Marvel license access (via Avengers) creates opportunity for additional character exploitation (Doctor Strange proposed by host)
medium · Host notes 'Stern already has access to this character as well, due to a game that you're looking at behind me, as a matter of fact, with Avengers'
~
sentiment_shift: Host expects pushback from community on premium pricing escalation but remains optimistic on sustainability based on market signals
medium · 'I know a lot of people don't want to hear that. I know, obviously, people don't want the prices to go sky high.' Yet he argues market dynamics support higher pricing.
?
competitive_signal: Stranger Things Pro expected to become tournament mainstay due to linear gameplay and four drop-target risk/reward mechanic
medium · Host explicitly states expectation for 'high level tournaments' adoption once sanctioned play resumes
?
design_philosophy: Host proposes Doctor Strange as optimal B-tier/emerging A-tier theme for contemporary pinball design; suggests Theater of Magic design legacy applicable to Marvel character
medium · Extended pitch on Doctor Strange: sorcery/magic theming parallels Theater of Magic; Multiverse of Madness sequel elevating character to A-tier; soundtrack and colors align with pinball design language

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.076

0:00

All right, welcome back, everybody, to another episode of a pinball podcast. Thank you guys once again for being here. I greatly do appreciate it. And if you're watching on YouTube, you've probably noticed already that it is a little bit different behind me. I switched out a few games. As you can tell, Iron Maiden and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles LEs are both gone. I just needed to make a change. I'm taking my lineup, and I'm just turning it over. I do have a couple other games, though, downstairs. One of them, you're going to actually be probably pretty shocked that I have it. But it is here, and I've gotten a chance to flip it for a couple of games. I'm still trying to figure everything out. But anyhow, so I got rid of Iron Maiden and Ninja Turtles. And the reason why I ended up doing that is just quite frankly, I just got done with it. I've done everything I could do on those games. They are enjoyable, especially Iron Maiden. But they're here local. I can play them on location. and it got to where it just felt like I was getting through the game almost too much, where it wasn't too much of a challenge anymore. And that's not even an indication of the actual game itself. I think it's just me having the same machine, the same setup. Even once I changed the setup a little bit, I would play it enough to where I'd figure it out. And so I just needed something a little bit different. And then that way I can get kind of bad at it again and I can go get my butt kicked by it again. But yeah, either way, it's an excellent game. If you haven't played Iron Maiden before, I highly recommend it. If you've been living under a rock and you haven't, and if you have it at home, try to go for Run to the Hills. It's an excellent mode. It's fun to get to. It almost seems impossible, but once you kind of break down that wall and you get to that point, you end up doing very, very well and you end up getting there consistently. All right, what just happened here? My notes just went nuts. Okay, either way, we'll keep going. So let's see, what games did I bring in in place of it? Well, I got a couple of games. One of them, I got a Stranger Things Pro. And the reason why I got this, one, I haven't got a chance to play it as much. I think I might have had maybe less than 20 games on it total up until this point. It's not readily available here in Oklahoma. And plus, I really do honestly believe that this game is going to show up in tournaments a lot. Once they fire back up and they get sanctioned again, I can see the type of game that this is, especially with it being super linear. I could see this being a mainstay in a lot of tournaments, especially high level tournaments. And plus, there is a certain risk to reward ratio that they have in place with those four drop targets up front. And then, of course, you got the Demogorgon. Now, I can confirm, I still can't hit the Demogorgon to save my life except for just grazing it and bashing it. And then, of course, my 10-year-old gets on it three times in a row straight in the mouth. I don't get it. It just is what it is. But he actually enjoyed it a lot. Now, the other game that we have is a Guns and Roses by Jersey Jack. Yes, you heard it right. I do have a Guns and Roses. But it is the standard edition. And the reason for that, I'm not a big fan of upper play fields. I'm just not. And I've played the GNR LE a couple of times now. And I still, the gameplay with it, I just couldn't wrap my head around it. So I ended up getting the SE, and I was hoping that that would speed things up a little bit. And I can confirm it does play a lot faster, which is nice. I enjoy that a little bit more. But, yeah, it's been crazy, though, with it. We drove back. We got it all set up.

3:31

And as soon as I got GNR set up, there was something weird going on with it. And, one, whenever we turned it on, all the lights would come on. And then after it got done booting, the lights would be gone. And I, for the life of me, could not figure out what was going on. Checked all the connections. They were all good. Checked all the fuses. They were all good. Checked the wiring to make sure things were in its right spot. They were good. I mean, I diagnosed this thing for a few hours after driving several hours to get back home. And the next morning, which was yesterday morning, did the same thing again. And, of course, ended up opening up a ticket and everything. And Jersey Jack basically said, hey, check the wires some more. Check the connections. We'll figure it out. And I ended up getting just so frustrated that I just smacked the side of the cabinet. And lo and behold, the thing, just the lights stayed on. I couldn't believe it. So it was like a Fonzie moment. If you've ever watched that show, you know what I'm referencing. And all of a sudden, the game just worked. I don't know how. I don't know why. It's making me question reality at this point. But somehow, just by smacking the side of the cabinet, now all of a sudden all the GI works in the game. So before I was playing a Guns N' Roses with no lights at all, everything else worked. Switches worked. Songs worked. Flippers worked. Everything. There was just no lights. so I legitimately had the only GNR in the world a concert in a box with no lights and I was telling somebody it was like I was at a state fair concert that's what it was because there was nothing else going on but you smack the side of a cabinet to your pinball machine it works so for all you people out there that have your fancy pinball machines if you really want it to work just smack it around and let it know who's boss and evidently it'll work. But anyhow, the second issue that I have with it though, and this one's pretty disappointing and this was straight out of the box. I have actually a chip in the play field and a piece of the wood missing from the play field at the scoop. And that was direct out of box without even one game played. And that was really disappointing. I've never seen that in my life. As much as we talk about play field issues, pulling and all that, I've never seen an actual chunk missing out of a play field without any games played on it at all. And how that left factory, I have no idea, but unfortunately I ended up being the lucky recipient of it, but I did open up a ticket and hopefully I can get that all fixed up through Jersey Jack. So you know I will be able to give a full review of this game but I still going to wait a couple of months until I really put it through its paces and I figure it out because I really want to give the game a chance Now, the reason why we got it is truthfully because of my family. My wife really likes the game and my kids. They like the lights. They like the endless multiball because they feel like they're getting far in the game. So, you know, happy family with pinball, regardless how I feel about it. I'm still kind of on the fence about it, but the light show, once it does work, pretty awesome. The sound's pretty awesome. I'm still getting used to just chimp flipping all the time, but I've kind of found a little bit of a workaround around that, which has helped a little bit, but I don't have enough games on it really to make any type of conclusion on how much I like or dislike certain portions of it. So I'm not going to be one of these that goes on pin side and just declares the game a full 10 because I had one evening on it, or that it's just a complete just crap show because I've had a few games on it. I mean, it's just like the initial review I had. there's some things I like, some things I don't like. There's some things that are excellent in it. There's some things that are not so excellent. And it's like that for every pen. No pen is perfect at all. But I'm willing to give it a chance, and it'll be here at the house, and we'll be playing it for a while. But anyhow, so we will segue into what is going on. And one of the things that I caught wind of just last week, and it was just crazy, so I had a few days to really think about this, is that there was a Pirates from Jersey Jack that went up on Pennside for $30,000, a collector's edition. And I'm not going to lie. I feel like this is absolutely insane. But if you're going to get your money, get your money. I can't hate that. But it is just this whole situation to me, especially with the way prices are going, it just creates a really unique, insane situation. It just, it boggles my mind. Even me just sitting here, just thinking about it and everything's firing off. I cannot make heads or tails of this. And I know we talk about FOMO all the time. We talk about, you know, people wanting certain games in their collection that other people don't have. And really the way that I look at it, I've kind of pulled myself away from this because just like I've talked to you guys about before, I'm really getting to the point to where I'm priced out of new unboxed pinball. I really am. And the only reason why I was even able to get a stranger things and guns and roses is simply because those were LEs, LEs, a little bit higher value, got the value out of it. I want it so forth. But in terms of buying something, that's just pure new inbox, you know, I'm definitely down to the pros. Definitely. I don't think I can go anywhere else with that. So what's really unique about this situation when I pull myself back from it is that you hear this all the time that people are talking about how we need certain themes that themes will sell you know yada yada yada we hear this all the time right i've even said it and i still believe that to an extent but but this pirate situation has made me really reflect on this and it's caused me to really take a step back and i'm starting to wonder do or does pinball really need certain themes to sell. And what I'm getting at is here, if you guys were around in late 2017 with pinball, I was, I wasn't on the competitive scene yet, but I did pay attention to the news. I was aware of pinball. And one of the things about when Jersey Jack released pirates, everybody, or I won't say everybody, a lot of people were questioning and they weren't questioning what the game looked like. Everybody thought it was beautiful. And of course we had the, you know, the thread, a dark day of stern or something like that. But people were openly questioning the theme choice because this was not a theme that pinball fans were just beating down the doors about. This wasn't an in demand theme. This was a head scratcher. When people heard that pirates was announced, people were just wondering why, why it didn't make any sense on back then. It just didn't. Now, obviously, there's going to be reasons why they chose that theme. But, again, it wasn't an in-demand theme, and a lot of people voiced their opinions of that. Fast forward a few years later, and this is after that theme did not sell well out of the gate. It did not. And there's a reason why it went off the line as quickly as it did. But you fast forward a few years later, all of a sudden, we live in the reality to where a second version of Pirates of the Caribbean, and it is Caribbean. My wife gives me crap all the time. A POTC legitimately sells for the most money possible on a third-party market. I mean, compared to everything else. Now, of course, you got your Supreme. You got Magic Girl. You got all that. But what I'm talking about is a game to where they have a lot more pieces out there, a lot more games out there than what we realize. And on top of that, it's not just one type of game. I mean, we're talking the LE and the CE. They're both selling for either right at $20,000 or above $20,000.

13:49

Now, theme definitely matters when we're talking about location pinball. We're talking about the pro models. We're talking about something that's affordable, quote, semi-affordable for people that people could see on location and think that they want to coin drop. Now, I mean, it's crazy because think about it. If you put a collector's edition Pirates on location and you put that next to Led Zeppelin, I guarantee you Led Zeppelin would get the bigger coin drop. I fully believe that. I think themes would speak to people that are there that aren't necessarily buyers. But if we're looking at the collectors, I think Pirates is a prime example that I'm really paying attention to this, that you don't need an A-tier theme to sell a pinball machine for a whole lot of money. For a whole lot of money. So it makes me wonder, could these companies pivot a little bit to where maybe they start looking at getting B-tier themes that are still on people's minds, that are still semi-relevant today, and just making a colossal, awesome package and saying, we've only got 250 of these, and they're going to be $20,000 to $25,000 each. I got a feeling, and I know some people are going to hate it that I'm saying this, I got a feeling if any company, well, let me take that back, not if any company, if Stern or Jersey Jack did this and they put out a game that's $25,000, and I'm not talking Beatles type, I'm not talking that because we all know what that was about. I'm talking a game that's actually jam-packed that doesn't necessarily have all the assets but is jam-packed in terms of design, sound, lights. And you put that at $25,000, I honestly, I think you sell out. If Stern came out and said, Keith Elwin is creating this unique game, they announce it today, and they say it'll be out a year from now, you probably sell out all your spots. And that's just the reality of where we're at today. Because again, Pirates wasn't an in-demand theme. it just wasn't. And that goes into, I don't even know how it's not even possible to not even rerun this game. And that's a whole other issue. I don't know how it's not possible not to do it. So if I'm wanting a Pirates, I'm probably not spending that much money. I'm probably waiting back and making sure if I own a Pirates, I'm probably selling it and getting my money out of it right now. But again, pinball companies have to be looking at this. And you have to be wondering, how important is it to really have an A-tier asset game that is just jam-packed with everything? Now again, obviously GNR is that. And that's shown by how much or how far Jersey Jack is behind on orders. I mean, there's still people that had LDs that paid back in October, and here we are March 10th as of today, and they're not getting it until May. So they are so far behind. and it just shows you how much the dynamics have just incredibly changed over what people are really wanting out of high tier pinball machines just from just three or four years ago i mean it's incredibly it is changed and you have to definitely attribute that to one you know the pandemic people being at home more and plus two a lot of these people have done well whether it's investments i I know my wife and I, our retirement savings has just skyrocketed this past year, and hopefully all of you guys out there have done the same thing. Hopefully you're putting money back. If you're into pinball, I have to assume you're at least thinking on those terms. If you're not, please don't get financial advice from me, but please at least start thinking about it, guys. But this also takes me to Toy Story. This is a game that obviously is like the worst kept secret in pinball right now. We all know that it's coming. When? I don't know. I'd have to think it's coming sooner rather than later, although it can't come too soon because they're so backed up with Guns N' Roses. But the fact is, Toy Story could be priced at $15,000 for the CE, and they will sell out day one. They will absolutely sell out day one. If you're thinking about speculating on a game, I don't see any. This is, again, a Disney property. it's something that does to me it is an A tier title in terms of its theme and the things that you can do with this game and so I think that this is going to be something that will much like it will be just like Guns N' Roses in the sense that it will sell out and it will sell out quickly and again people are seeing this people in the industry have to be seeing this and have to be wondering what can they do next in order to capitalize on this? And that still that makes me wonder what levels of pinball are we gonna see Would we see Stern put out a machine Would we see different options come out Would we see a super LE from Stern become a regular theme

22:15

One, again, B-level, he's not necessarily one of the A-tier characters from Marvel, right? But what older machine is still sought after? what older machine has that quote unquote world under glass that you hear about all the time and that's theater of magic dr strange deals with that sorcery magic all that stuff imagine that type of theme brought in today into 2021 and you give somebody like elwynn or somebody just a shot at just creating something magnificent underneath there. You think of the way the music goes. If you haven't heard the soundtrack to it, go listen to it. It fits a lot of things with pinball. It really does. And when you look at the colors, you look at things you could do with the pinball that matches up with that theme. And the fact that they are coming out with a sequel to his movie called the Multiverse of Madness, I think is due out next year at some point he is going to be literally the new iron man the new tony stark for marvel moving forward a lot of the stories are going to revolve around dr strange and i'm telling you guys this theme and the the way that you could structure your whole theme underneath that glass i think it would be spectacular there's a lot of things that would make sense there's a lot of callbacks that you go to to older games that people really do dig it doesn't mean you have to do it exactly the same obviously it's got to be new but it's something that people still enjoy and i think theater of magic is very much still relevant to people today it still very much is and the fact that you can kind of pull elements from that and place that into a character that everybody knows right now that is going to move from B-level to A-level within just a couple of years. It's going to happen. I'm telling you. This theme would do dynamite. I really do believe that just because not just the name right now, but just because of the potential designs and the way that you could make this just a total cinematic type experience with pinball. You really could. You really could but that's all i got let me know in the comments down below guys what do you think am i just crazy for thinking dr strange would be that what do you guys think about these prices coming up where do you guys think pinball will go from here if you haven't already please leave a like down below if you have any questions comments want to make fun of me whatever you want to do just send me a message at a pinball podcast at gmail.com or you can leave a comment down below just like i said other than that though if i don't talk to you guys before this weekend you guys have a great week. Thank you so much for listening and I'll see you guys soon. Later guys.