Episode 842: "Kaneda's Pinball Expo Prediction"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·26m 31s·analyzed·Sep 4, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Pinball Expo announcements and critiques inflated pinball pricing across manufacturing and secondary markets.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Stern's new factory capacity, elevated pricing strategies, and weak recent releases like Venom; predicts Pinball Brothers will announce a remake partnership rather than an original game at Pinball Expo; analyzes inflated secondary market prices for premium/LE machines, arguing the market is overheated and unsustainable; advocates for anime-themed pinball (Akira, Ghost in the Shell) over current IP trends.

Key Claims

Stern's new factory is much larger than the old one and could theoretically produce 800-1,000 games per week or 30,000-40,000 per year.
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates based on factory size observation; not confirmed by Stern
Stern received approximately $50 million in tax credits from Chicago to keep the factory and workers there.
medium confidence · Kaneda mentions this as supporting context for Stern's pricing power; not independently verified in content
Queen Pinball (Pinball Brothers game) has not sold well—likely fewer than 1,000 units.
low confidence · Kaneda's speculation: 'I have a hard time imagining a thousand Queen pinball machines have sold'
CGC Manufacturing likely has several thousand orders for Pulp Fiction still pending delivery.
low confidence · Kaneda speculation: 'man they must have a couple thousand orders for Pulp Fiction. I feel like people are going to be waiting for those games forever'
Venom is the weakest Stern release since Black Knight or Led Zeppelin.
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion: 'We haven't really seen Stern have a game as weak as Venom since what like Black Knight since maybe like Led Zeppelin'
Godfather Collector's Edition will drop significantly in price, possibly into the $12,500-$13,500 range soon.
medium confidence · Kaneda prediction based on market oversupply and pricing weakness
An Akira pinball machine would outsell Venom, Galactic Arcade Tank Force, and The Godfather combined.
low confidence · Kaneda's opinion: 'If somebody made an Akira pinball machine, it would sell way better than a game like Venom'
Batman Super LE could trade for $40,000 in a few years or collapse to $20,000.
low confidence · Kaneda prediction after purchasing one for $25,000

Notable Quotes

“Has the demand for pinball increased enough to warrant a factory that ginormous? I mean, it looks like Stern can maybe make like 800 to 1,000 games a week.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Core concern about Stern's factory size vs. actual market demand; questions sustainability of pricing model
“They're fleecing us as customers. I think everybody's feeling this. I'm talking to everybody and it never goes away.”
Kaneda @ factory discussion — Summary of widespread community sentiment about pricing; frames issue as systemic
“If somebody made an Akira pinball machine, it would sell way better than a game like Venom. It would sell way better.”
Kaneda @ IP licensing section — Strong opinion on missed anime licensing opportunities and cultural IP alignment with collector base
“The stage is open for somebody to make a move at Expo. I'm going to give you two things I think are going to happen at Expo.”
Kaneda @ Pinball Expo prediction — Sets up predictions about unannounced games and Pinball Brothers strategy
“I think they're going to go remake something. And I don't know like how the pinball world is going to respond to that.”
Kaneda @ Pinball Brothers analysis — Predicts Pinball Brothers will pivot to remaking classic games rather than original IP
“Someone's trying to sell a Venom LE for $15,000. Ladies and gentlemen, can we give a round of applause to the gentleman out there in the world from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, who's trying to sell a Venom for $2,000 more than a game they can't even give away for $13,000.”
Kaneda @ Collector's Corner — Highlights absurd secondary market pricing detached from market reality; uses humor to critique overvaluation
“I'm really in a bad mood. I'm just deflated that the hobby turned into this. Like it's just sad to me.”
Kaneda @ end of Collector's Corner — Emotional reaction to secondary market inflation; signals broader community frustration with pricing dynamics

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyPinball Brotherscompany American Pinballcompany Jersey Jack PinballcompanyCGC ManufacturingcompanySpooky Pinballcompany

Signals

?
manufacturing_signal: Stern's new factory is significantly larger than previous facility, with estimated capacity of 800-1,000 games/week or 30,000-40,000/year. Kaneda questions whether actual market demand justifies this expansion given current pricing and perceived weakness of recent releases.
medium · Kaneda observes: 'It's huge. It's absolutely huge... And when I saw this huge factory, I couldn't help but think, wow, a lot of pinball machines have to be made now to keep that factory line going.'
$
market_signal: Consensus among Kaneda's contacts that Stern's pricing ($10K premium, $13K LE without topper) is disconnected from willingness to pay. References to major companies (Tesla, Ford) lowering prices after overpricing markets.
high · Kaneda: 'They're fleecing us as customers. I think everybody's feeling this. I'm talking to everybody and it never goes away.'
?
product_concern: Venom perceived as weakest Stern release in years; comparison to historically despised games like Led Zeppelin and Black Knight. Concern that price point ($13K LE) cannot sustain sales volume for weak gameplay.
high · Kaneda: 'We haven't really seen Stern have a game as weak as Venom since what like Black Knight since maybe like Led Zeppelin... I also just don't think people are going to warm up to these prices for a game like that.'
?
collector_signal: Widespread overpricing on secondary market (Godfather CE $14.2K, Pirates CE $34K, Venom LE $15K). Kaneda identifies disconnect between asking prices and actual market value; predicts rapid price collapses once market realizes oversupply.
high · Multiple examples: Venom LE listed at $15K when new versions available at $13K; Godfather CE expected to drop to $12.5-13.5K; Kaneda: 'I'm just deflated that the hobby turned into this.'

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.080

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Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed Everybody knows the war is over Everybody knows the good guys lost Yase, yase, yase, yase, yase, yase, yase, yase, yase Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Happy Labor Day weekend. I hope none of you have children who went to Burning Man and are stuck in the mud. Well, you know who's not stuck in the mud anymore, Kaneda? We will be back next Saturday for the Saturday Morning Spectacular. I took a couple weeks off. I needed a couple weeks off just to decompress, go to the gym. I'm gonna try to do a push-up for every single club member I have on that SaturdayMorning Spectacular. So that is 500, I think, and 93 push-ups. Can I do it? How long will that even take? We're gonna give it a fair shot. So here's what I want to do on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. First and foremost, if you are a Patreon member, you saw a video I just uploaded. I just put together a nice thank you video for all the fans out there. Been doing this show for over eight years, freaking eight years of my life. I've been into pinball for like ten years, but eight of them, you know, after being banned from Pinside, have been dedicated to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I want to talk about Pinball Brothers on this episode. We're going to cover off on a few news items, but then I want to talk about the Pinball Brothers, I think people forget Stern Pinball does not make announcements at Chicago Expo. They do their own thing on their own time. They don't do it at the shows. They're not going to wheel something new out there. They got to sell venom. That's the only thing on Stern's agenda right now. Like they probably will sell these Jurassic Park cash grab 30th anniversary editions, but then they got to do something about these venoms. We haven't really seen Stern have a game as weak as Venom since what like Black Knight since maybe like Led Zeppelin. It feels like that kind of game. I don't think it's going to be like as despised as a game like Led Zeppelin, but I also just don't think people are going to warm up to these prices for a game like that. We'll talk a little bit about that. And then I'm going to do Kaneda's collector's corner. We're going to go on to pin side and we're going to have to search for games that cost more. This is crazy. I'm going to have to search for games that cost more than $14,000 to see what people are asking for certain titles that are absolutely targeting the collector community. Isn't that nuts to say? Because if I search for $13,000, like hundreds of games will come up. Hundreds! And all of these new LEs, they're so easy to get and I don't consider any of them to be collectible. All right, so let's cover off in a few couple news items. Stern Pinball is moving into its new factory and it is humongous. Have you seen this thing? It's huge. It's absolutely huge. It's absolutely beautiful. It's absolutely gorgeous. And when I saw this huge factory, I couldn't help but think, wow, a lot of pinball machines have to be made now to keep that factory line going. And this factory is much, much bigger than the old factory. And it begs the question, Has the demand for pinball increased enough to warrant a factory that ginormous? I mean, it looks like Stern can maybe make like 800 to 1,000 games a week. Let's just say hypothetically Stern Pinball can make 30 to 40,000 new pinball machines a year. I just don't see 30 to 40,000 people out there buying these games at these prices. There's no way to separate it anymore, right? Like we used to be all excited when a new game would come out. We used to be excited when we would do factory tours and it's still exciting to a certain level. But the thing that just hangs over everything now is no matter what's going to happen in that factory, they're going to want $10,000 for a premium. No matter what happens in that factory, they're going to want $13,000 for an LE that does not come with a topper. No matter what happens in that factory, they're going to try to sell you a $2,000 topper to go on top of your $13,000 Stern machine and all of a sudden Stern has done the impossible. They took a price point that we all laughed at when they announced Batman SLE was 15,000. Remember the uproar? And now they're going to apply that to a game in which they're going to make 1,000 of them. 1,000 units. And I just don't think they're going to get away with it. And 2024 is really going to be the year in which we see if Stern's gamble pays off. I know they also got something like a $50 million tax credit from Chicago to keep the factory there with all the workers. And I think Chicago as a city really has a lot of pride in the fact that Stern pinball is there and it's the home of modern pinball manufacturing. So that's gonna help Stern out a lot. Now, wouldn't it be great if they pass those savings on to us? Right? They're fleecing us as customers. I think everybody's feeling this. I'm talking to everybody and it never goes away. What else is going on in the pinball news? I know there is a new code update for Galactic Tank Force and in this code update they think it's a good idea to put more clips of the employees over at American Pinball in the different cutscenes. They all dressed up in the space suits and they are part of the game. Why did they hire professional actors and actresses if they are then going to use Steve Bowden and Ryan McQuaid? I don't think it works. I didn't like it in Godfather. I don't like it in Galactic Tank Force. If I could give every single company out there a very, very simple marketing advice. You might be able to use some of your employees for callouts if their voices work for the callouts, but what you should never do is put your employees into a game. Now look, I understand that Galactic Tank Force is a campy theme. I understand that it's an original IP, so you can kind of get away with it in a game like that. There's no excuse to do it in a game like The Godfather, okay? Now look, here's the thing about Godfather. I'm seeing more and more people unbox their CEs. They are beautiful machines. I'm seeing people out there enjoy the game, which is good. I mean, you spent a lot of money on that game. I hope you do enjoy it. And I want to remind everybody, the uproar around the Godfather is not about whether or not the game is fun. It's the same problem with Toy Story. The uproar around the Godfather is it's just not worth the money. and when you have these games that are 15k and games that are people just are not seeing the value in the game because here the sad part if it is a great game here the sad part is that everybody who bought it early is going to lose a ton of money It not going to change the game right The value of the game will go up and down but the game will be the game right The game not going to change much They not going to do a major code update When Jersey Jack ships the game it pretty much code complete So the game stays what it is I think people are seeing a game where they would want to spend like maybe I think people would want to spend more like $12.5 on the collector's edition. Elon Musk is lowering the price of his electric cars. Ford is lowering the price of their F-150 Lightning. Why are major companies out there realizing if they've outpriced their market and they've outpriced their customers, the only way to get some of that market share back is if you lower the prices. A lot of prices went through the roof during COVID. Branding 별로 Photo 5.1 with craig Rép acceleration the quin dove o î You like à WM We're crazy Closed Caption by The Closed Caption Project So we're seeing more and more of those games unboxing. I'm curious to see where the market goes on Godfathers. I think it's just going to keep going south. The question is how fast will it go south? Are we going to see CEs trading for 14, 13, 5, 12, 5 anytime this year? I think they are. I think when Steve Richie's game comes out, it's going to be like catching a falling knife on the value of these things. And I think Jersey Jack is just learning a lesson. At these prices, you just need a AAA theme everybody wants. This wasn't really link in description below. Let me know in the comments. To another channel. It's one of the biggest properties in the world. It's like I think Pokemon is bigger than anything Disney has right now as an IP. It is bigger than Super Mario Brothers but the real question is this. Does Pokemon carry over into the pinball buying demographic? I think we all know the answer to that even though it's a humongous property. I don't see the Pokemon fan base and the pinball fan base overlapping very much and Pokemon Tantan Bibar,Tantan sigue Swagging, Daniel Bir sorak, I'mTwentlak,maji Nolding perimeter, M saliva Officer, j rayx, Bruceciany- heardian Malika, ExcRNA Molinioen, chill, John untojustice, Kyle Deros medici,

10:20

it's so cool have them I would love to see Stern pinball do somethingJapanese anime. I would love to see an Akira pinball machine. How about a fist of the North Star? How about a ghost in the shell? I think there is a definite overlap between the pinball buying community and a lot of those anime movies that we grew up with in the 80s and 90s and no one's going anywhere near them. Nowhere near them. I mean it when I say it. If somebody made an Akira pinball machine, it would sell way better than a game like venom. It would sell way better The game is better than a game like Galactic Tank Force. It would sell way more units than a game like The Godfather. It just would. The cultural significance of Akira in America and in Japan, in the world, you talk to anybody, it still is held up as the gold standard of anime films that crossed over in America. See, I think like, you know, Spooky Pinball making a studio Ghibli would make so much more sense than making a game like Ultraman. But that's just me. I just sort of love all things Japanese and I think when it comes to pinball themes, I think we're getting a little tired of all the Marvel. I think we're tired of all the music pins. I think we're tired of these like old man curmudgeon-y themes. There's a lot of stuff in the 90s and early 2000s we're not even looking at. Alright, so let's talk about the Pinball Brothers for a minute. So the rumor is this, they are going to be at Pinball Expo and they are going to reveal their next game. They've done Aliens, they've done Queen Pinball, both of those games were designed underneath Andrew Highway overseeing Highway Pinball. This will be the first game that the Pinball Brothers makes without any of Andrew Highway's inputs. I keep thinking about this because other than them, I don't think anyone's going to come to Expo with anything new. So I don't think it's a show where we're going to see a lot of new stuff. I don't think a lot of news is going to come out of the show. I don't know, maybe Jerry will announce some modular thing for Multimorphics. So what? It's taking him forever to make those games. Maybe there will be a Haggis update on where the Fathom builds are at. I don't think he's going to finish those games by the end of the year. So the stage is open. The stage is open for somebody to make a move at Expo. I'm going to give you what I think is going to happen. I'm going to give you two things I think are going to happen at Expo. First, I think that Mystery pinball company that I don't know what the game is, I don't know when it's coming out, but if I were them, I would really be eyeballing Expo as a moment to reveal. I think it's the perfect time for them. I don't know what the game is. I don't think it's a remake. I think it's going to be an all-new pinball machine. It's probably going to have a license attached to it because I can't see anybody putting the effort in on an original IP game that wouldn't work. And I think the stage is set up perfectly for this company Thank you for watching Outline you got everybody who ordered a Pulp Fiction is going to be waiting I mean can we just talk for 10 seconds about CGC manufacturing It just feels like we never have any line of sight into how many games they making but man they must say got a couple thousand orders for Pulp Fiction I feel like people are going to be waiting for those games forever There really nothing There nothing And you know this people have a little bit of money burning a hole in their pocket And if this mystery company can come out with a game that really I'm going to be traveling the week before. Unfortunately, my friend that passed away, her parents are having a celebration of her life in Los Angeles. So I will be in the Los Angeles area the weekend of October 14th. So if you're in LA and you want to hang out with Kaneda for a little bit or swing by and have a beer with Kaneda at the hotel, I would love to see you. I'm going to try to meet up with some of you. That's going to be a real sombering event for me. She was one of my best friends. I'm going to be away from Brenda and Killian too long, so I don't want to then go the next weekend to Pinball Expo. It's just too much to ask of Brenda and I really want to be there for my family and I love just hanging out with my family on the weekends. Even though it's tiring, I'm never going to get these years back. I mean, I love the age Killian is at right now. It's such an amazing time. Alright, so that is the mystery game and the window that's open for them. Then we've got the Pinball Brothers who are saying they're going to reveal their next game and it got me thinking. Here's what I think is going to happen. I don't think that Pinball Brothers are going to release a new game. I think they're going to announce a partnership with Rick and Planetary. I think they will announce that and I think they are going to announce that they will be making a remake of a classic pinball machine. I think the two games that are the most speculated will be Big Bang Bar or it's going to be Twilight Zone. I think it's one of those two games. It could be another remake game. It's going to be something that Rick has the IP for. I just don't see the Pinball Brothers designing a game from the ground up with who? Like who would be the designer? What would the license be? I don't know. I just feel like these guys, they've got Pedretti Gaming making their product. They've got the manufacturing figured out. And I think they now need to just release a sure thing. I don't think Queen has sold very well. In fact, I know Queen has not sold very well. I don't know what their expectations were. I have a hard time imagining a thousand Queen pinball machines have sold. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe they can reveal their numbers. Nobody reveals their numbers, but I'm just not seeing a ton of Queen pinball machines being unboxed. And I think they're going to go remake something. And I don't know like how the pinball world is going to respond to that. You could always sell more Twilight zones. You could always sell more Big Bang Bars. I don't know. I don't know if it's going to work. And I don't know if people are going to run to it. And I don't know if the game is going to be ready for the line, because I still think all of us right now, and I said it on my last show, we're kind of just all waiting to see what Keith Elwin does. Why wouldn't you just wait? Everything else is just going to either hold value or go down in value. So that's what I think is going to happen from the pinball brothers. All right, let's go to this pin side marketplace right now. I'm going to do my Canadian collector's Corner. I put in over $14,000. Let's talk about what people are trying to sell right now. Now, some people are trying to sell Foo Fighters LE for over $13,000, which makes no sense because you can actually go get a Foo Fighters LE right now. 12-5 new in box. So I don't understand these like people are like 14-7-5 firm, a game that someone is selling for $2,000 less. There's a Stranger Things LE for $14,200 and that sounds like a great price until you realize it's a routed machine that's been beat on. Wow! Who would have guessed that a beaten up routed Stranger Things LE would be $14,000 in 2023? Also, who would route a Stranger Things LE? You dope? Why wouldn't you just route a premium? It makes absolutely no sense to put an Ellie on location. I never understand that. The premium is the same exact game. In fact, the premium is designed to be out on location for someone who wants a fully featured game but doesn't want to pay a premium. Think about how silly it is because if you put an Ellie on location, that game has to be played 3000 times more than the premium does to earn you back money. It makes no sense. There's a Godfather collector's Edition for 14.2. I wouldn't go anywhere near Godfather CE right now. I would just wait it out. I think we're gonna see Godfather go into the 13s real soon. Here's a great one. A Bonsai Run $19,995. It's fully restored. A Bonsai Run for 20 grand? A few years ago if you said that someone would be like well there must be $15,000 in the coin box. I wouldn't go anywhere near that. This is my favorite one. There's a Venom LE for sale and it's not Canada. It's in America. Someone's trying to sell a Venom LE for $15,000. Ladies and gentlemen, can we give a round of applause to the gentlemen out there in the world from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, who's trying to sell a Venom for $2,000 more than a game they can't even give away for $13,000. Alright, Pirates of the Caribbean collector's Edition. Now these things always pop up. I know there's hardly any of them out there, but they always seem for sale. This one is for sale for $34,000 or best offer. Wow. Now look, Pirates CE, Pirates LE, they're always around that like $20,000 range, $30,000 range. At the height of COVID, a new in box one sold for $40,000. Now look, do I think this game is worth that? Now look, in the world of collectibles, I do think they are not going to make more Pirates now. I think Jersey Jack Pinball, if they were going to do it, they would have done it by now, is my feeling. So, you know, I always feel like Pirates is going to have a special place in a high-end pinball collector's game room, just because there's not many of them. The CE is a beautiful machine. Do I think it's worth $34,000? I don think these things are moving around that price It says or best offer I think you could probably get one for high 20s at this point You might as well see if they bite There a bunch of James Bond 60th machines for sale They selling for around 15K 13K 14K th article straight from nutritious, frustrating, The People who own these are going to get tired of owning them eventually. Only the super diehard James Bond collectors like Neil McCray are going to hold onto them. I don't think there's 500 of those kinds of collectors out there. What else we got here? A $20,000 Medieval Madness Royal Edition. I don't know. I wouldn't pay twice the price that game was brand new. If you really need the Royal Edition, sure. Is it going to change the game for you? No. High likelihood that Chicago Gaminginct makes another medieval madness down the road. Yes there is. So I wouldn't go anywhere near that. An Elvira House of Horrors Limited Edition. This is interesting. It's not too bad. A limited edition. I think there was only like 50 of these. I actually thought this was the signature edition that had the couch. But no, this was the LE. So this was one where I think they made 500 of them. Um, they want $14,500 for this game. I mean, I don't know. Here's the thing about Elvira. Like if you're going to spend $14,500 and you got that much cheddar, I would want to have the nicest version of Elvira. I think you could get the 40th anniversary edition for like $18,000. And I know these numbers are bonkers people, but if I'm going to spend like $14,500, I don't want to have like the third nicest version of the game. It's just too much money. So I wouldn't go anywhere near this. The sale of Vyra I would buy for over $12,000 would be the 40th and I think those games are going to come down in price as well. Here's a Pirates of the Caribbean LE that has a sale pending for $22,000. Well, that's still $10,000 less than the collector's edition. Remember, the collector's edition was only $2,500 more. Alright, what else we got here? Now, a Batman Super LE. This made me excited. atriptodontajei,