Journalist Tool

Kineticist

  • HDashboard
  • IItems
  • ↓Ingest
  • SSources
  • KBeats
  • BBriefs
  • RIntel
  • QSearch
  • NName Review
  • +Health

v0.1.0

← Back to items

Is The Pinball Market Crashing? | TMPM Feb 2025

LoserKid Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·14m 42s·analyzed·Jan 25, 2025
View original
Export .md

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

Pinball market down YoY but fundamentally strong; correction not crash.

Summary

Loser Kid Pinball analyzes secondary market price data from Pinside and pinballprices.com to assess whether the pinball market is crashing. Using stock market definitions (>20% decline = crash), the analysis shows a market correction rather than crash: modern machines are down 8-10% year-over-year but up 24-42% over five years. Bally/Williams and Data East games show strong long-term appreciation (38% and 34% respectively over five years) with interesting outliers like Champion Pub and Circus Voltaire commanding premium prices.

Key Claims

  • EMs appreciated 32% last year and 69% over five years

    high confidence · Host cites Ted Finley's pinballprices.com data covering decades of machines

  • Modern DMD (Stern post-2000s) down 8% last year but up 42% over five years

    high confidence · Host presents market data analysis with specific percentages

  • LCDs (JJP, Spike 2) down 10% last year but up 24% over five years

    high confidence · Host includes LCD category in market segment breakdown

  • Champion Pub is the most valuable Bally/Williams game over five years, up 54% to $8,000

    high confidence · Host identifies as unexpected finding after surveying multiple sources

  • Aerosmith Premium MSRP was $7,900, not $6,500 as previously stated

    high confidence · Correction from previous month's episode with verification of calculation

  • Cactus Canyon original (not remake) down 5-6% over five years, described as beta version with incomplete code

    high confidence · Host explains why original underperforms compared to remake

  • Congo appreciated from $5,000 to $6,500 (30% gain) with zero appreciation last year

    high confidence · Host notes game hit ceiling value but still strong over five years

  • Data East only produced 17 games before selling to Sega or Capcom

    medium confidence · Host acknowledges uncertainty about acquirer identity

Notable Quotes

  • “By definition, when a market is crashing, it means there is a sudden dip, a sudden and just explosive dip or shoot up, right? Well, crash would be a dip. So looking at these numbers, if we go via the stock market numbers, they consider a crash pretty much above a 20% dip.”

    Host @ ~8:30 — Establishes analytical framework for evaluating whether market is crashing

  • “When we're in that 10% range, we start in double digit numbers. It's called a market correction, not a market crash. So right now we're seeing a market correction from where the COVID numbers were.”

    Host @ ~12:45 — Core conclusion: market is correcting but fundamentally healthy

  • “Fifty Funhouses were listed last year in 2024. Of those 50, 16 didn't sell to Pinsiders, which means they actually didn't sell via Pinside. They sold it via Facebook. They sold it via a local market, or they just didn't want to pay the fee for selling that game.”

    Host @ ~5:20 — Explains data collection limitations and why market tracking is imprecise

  • “The thing about the market is if they're selling too low, people just hold onto them. So it's hard to say like the market is crashing because people don't have to sell these games. They can just leave them in their collection if they're not getting the value they want out of it.”

    Host @ ~16:30 — Explains why declining year-over-year prices don't indicate crash

  • “I just, yeah, when I asked multiple people, what's the top most valuable pinball machine over the last five years? No one guessed this. You ready for it? Champion Pub. $5,200 before COVID. It's eight grand right now.”

    Host @ ~26:15 — Highlights surprising outlier in Bally/Williams appreciation

  • “If you're looking for games that will increase over time but you still have some fun with them, these are the games you're looking for. [referring to Bally/Williams]”

    Host @ ~30:00 — Provides value recommendation for collectors entering the hobby

Entities

Ted FinleypersonGlenn Wechterpersonpinballprices.comproductPinsideorganizationFlippin' OutorganizationSilver Ball SwagproductLoser Kid PinballorganizationAerosmithgameBally/WilliamscompanyData EastcompanyChampion Pubgame

Signals

  • ?

    competitive_signal: Bally/Williams machines positioned as strong value entry points for new collectors seeking appreciation potential

    high · Host explicitly recommends Bally/Williams for collectors 'trying to get into the hobby' seeking games that 'will increase over time' with Bally/Williams down only 5% YoY but up 38% 5yr

  • $

    market_signal: Early solid-state games (Stern Electronics era) outperforming modern machines with 18% YoY and 68% 5-year appreciation

    high · Host cites Stars, Meteor, Black Knight as examples; positions as strong appreciation category

  • $

    market_signal: Alphanumeric machines (late 1980s-early 1990s) showing flatline YoY performance (0%) but sustained 33% appreciation over five years

    high · Host identifies Funhouse as example alphanumeric; notes 50 units listed in 2024 with complex multi-channel sales tracking (Pinside, Facebook, local markets)

  • $

    market_signal: Champion Pub unexpectedly appreciating 54% to $8,000 (from $5,200), identified as most valuable Bally/Williams game despite lack of mainstream discussion

    high · Host describes as 'out of left field' and confirms multiple people surveyed could not predict this result

  • $

    market_signal: Data East games appreciating 34% over five years with zero machines declining in long-term value; Batman and Star Trek negative performers in YoY comparison

    high · Host notes 'Every single Data East has gone up' over five years; Batman -25% YoY, Star Trek -20% YoY identified as outliers to avoid

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.044

0:00
Is the pinball market crashing? We hope to answer that today, along with, we've got percentages from the last year, the last five years, Bally Williams numbers, and Data East numbers. And on top of that, it's going to shock you which one is performing the best out of those Bally Williams numbers. All that's coming up. This is this month's pinball market.
0:30
First off, that intro song. Thank you, Glenn Wechter. That was amazing. You know, he called me up. He said, I've got this idea for an intro song. I love the segment. I said, go for it. Two days later, sent that over. Holy crap. I want to get thanks to Zach and Nicole many at flipping out for supporting our content and making Loser Kid possible. Also, if you like my Loser Kid Attacks t-shirt, silverballswag.com slash loserkid. You're looking for kicks, looking for pants. We will dress you from head to toe with hats, shoes, everything in the middle. So go check us out at Silver Ball Swag. All right, I got my notes here. First thing I want to do is a correction from last month. Last month, we were talking about Spike 2 numbers, and I talked about Aerosmith Premium. The numbers that I said on there were correct, except for the Aerosmith released at MSRP of 6,500. The way that I do this is I've been going through, I'm trying to simplify my process so that way I don't get mixed up like I did this last episode. But I accidentally put the five year number instead of the MSRP. The actual MSRP on that game was 7,900. So that's where I came up with the 52%. People were saying 6,500 and it's 12,000 now. That's more like 80% increase. And yes, you're right. So if you bought it five years ago and you have it to today, Dave, that Aerosmith premium, you've gained 80 plus percent on that game. Second, I want to talk about these numbers for a minute because people have a question. Where are these numbers coming from? How do they work? I get these from Pinside and I also get them from pinballprices.com. I want to give a quick thanks to Ted Finley. After we heard this segment, he's like, dude, I'll give you whatever you need. He sent over a list of stuff. There's a treasure trove of information here. I'm splitting these in two different ways because Pinside solely records Pinside numbers. Pinside has cells that go on. They record those numbers, whether it's public or private. They don't share those private numbers, but they do use it for that algorithm data to show where the pinball market is trending for a particular machine. When it comes to Ted Fiddling and his wonderful page, pinballprices.com, he is taking anything from auctions, from eBay. He's taking all those numbers on top of the Pinside numbers. And so he's giving a little more of an idea of what's going on with the market overall. the interesting part about this it doesn't really tell you condition right like you might get a trash game on auction or via ebay versus a pristine one on pin side and maybe vice versa on that one so it's kind of hard to track those numbers another interesting part too is let's talk about funhouse for a second because this is gives a good example of how hard these numbers are to track down 50 funhouses were listed last year in 2024 of those 50 16 didn't sell to pinsiders which means They actually didn't, they sold it via Facebook. They sold it via a local market and, or they just didn't want to pay the fee for selling that game. If you've never sold anything via Pinsight, every time you sell something, it is a tiered, like medieval madness is like 80 bucks for selling that game. Something like that. That helps to go promote keep Pinsight alive and support their community And sometimes people try to circumvent that Okay so 16 didn sell to Pinsire 13 sold but keeping their price private So we at 29
Circus Voltairegame
Congogame
Cactus Canyongame
NBA Fast Breakgame
Doctor Whogame
World Cup Soccergame
Funhousegame
Addams Familygame
Medieval Madnessgame
  • $

    market_signal: Golden Age DMD (1990s Bally/Williams) showing resilience at only +3% YoY and +54% 5yr despite broader market correction

    high · Golden Age DMD segment includes Addams Family, Medieval Madness, Attack from Mars referenced as high-demand machines

  • $

    market_signal: Pinball secondary market down 8-10% year-over-year across modern segments (Modern DMD, LCDs) but up 24-42% over five years, indicating correction rather than crash

    high · Host presents data showing Modern DMD -8% YoY/+42% 5yr, LCDs -10% YoY/+24% 5yr; explicitly defines as 'market correction' not 'market crash' per stock market definitions

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Community concern about market crash contradicted by data; long-term fundamentals remain strong

    high · Episode title asks 'Is The Pinball Market Crashing?' but analysis concludes it is not; implies significant community anxiety about market health

    • 3:50
    The other, okay, so three actually sold and let us know what the price was. That is public. You can find it on Pinside. But if you look on Pinside, it shows more than three games sold for last year. So like I said, those private numbers are used in the data. If you go check their track chart, but it's not publicly known. So it gives you an idea of where the market's going. And the other roughly what, 2021, didn't sell at all. So the real question is, I asked at the beginning of this episode, is the pinball market crashing? By definition, when a market is crashing, it means it is a sudden dip in a sudden and just explosive dip or shoot up, right? Well, crash would be dip. So looking at these numbers, if we went via the stock market numbers, they consider crash pretty much above a 20% dip. They actually have things set in place. So when it dips below like seven or 9% in a day, the market just stops and you're not allowed to buy those stocks and it helps kind of put the brakes on the scared selling. Let's go over Ted Finley's numbers. I feel like they give us a great idea. Is the pinball market crashing? Okay, let's go with EMs. So Ted is great on, if you've ever been to his website, he does it based almost off of decades. So we're 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s up to today, right? So EMs are those 50s, 60s, right? Last year alone, EMs went up 32%. And from five years, so we're going pre-COVID numbers, It's went up 69%. So if you own an EM today, you're more than likely making money on that EM if you decide to sell it. Early solid state, these are your sterns, your stern electronics. So like stars, meteor, black night, stuff like that.
    5:42
    Last year alone, 18% increase. Five year, 68% increase. You're still making money on those solid state games. Alpha numeric. So these are like these late 80s, early 90s. a good one to think of is fun house that was an alpha numeric so thinking of that and these don't include so the remake numbers don't include into these numbers right here so alpha numeric we flatlined zero percent increase over the year but a 33 increase over five years golden age dmd we're talking bally williams we're talking about those those 90s that everyone's want like the adams family it's the medieval madness is the attack from mars not the remakes golden age up 3% and over the five year 54% modern DMD. So this is your, this is your stern pretty much turns after two thousands.
    6:32
    Modern DMDs are down 8%, but overall from COVID they're up 42%. And last but not least LCDs, the ones that everyone's craving, everyone wants the JJPs, the spike twos. They are down 10% over the last year and up 24% over the last five years. So when we're in that 10% range, we start in double digit numbers. It's called a market correction, not a market crash. So right now we're seeing a market correction from where the COVID numbers were. Pre-COVID, we're still up. So these numbers are still solid. You're still good. Your market's still trending up, but we're seeing some fluctuation because of the economy and whatnot.
    7:15
    Okay. let get to the ones I think you excited for Let talk Bally Williams first I went through these numbers I was a little thrown off because I assumed it Medieval Madness It Attack for Mars. Those don't even hit like my top 10. So let's go with the worst ones. Ready for this? This game is one you don't want to buy right now. Cactus Canyon, just the original, which makes sense because the remake has added code. It does a lot different. It's got the bells and the whistles where Cactus Canyon, you're really buying a beta game, right? The code wasn't done. And so over the last year, it's down 5%. Over the last five years, it's down 6%. We're really not talking terrible, right? It's funny because that's the worst one out of the list. Next up, it would be Doctor Who. So Doctor Who itself is down 11% over last year. And for the five year, we're up 18%. So this still tells me we're kind of bouncing out, right? These games are starting to find the ceiling of what they're worth. They're still up from pre-COVID, which pre-COVID, we still had a lot of people interested in pinball. We still had people buying pinball. The thing about the market is if they're selling too low, people just hold onto them. So it's hard to say like the market is crashing because people don't have to sell these games. They can just leave them in their collection. If they're not getting the value they want out of it. So Doctor Who. And the third, so the third worst is no good golfers down 7% from last year, but we're still up 19% from the last five years. I actually went in and did the top five and these are going to be in no particular order. I'm just going to go by year because there's 47 machines in here and it's hard. So get away. 2% up over last year, 57% over five years. This game was originally worth three grand before COVID. Now we're almost hovering around five grand. It's 4,700.
    9:20
    World Cup soccer, one of my favorites. I got it over my shoulder right here. We're at 4% over last year and up 61% over the last five years. 3,100 five years ago. and right now uh five grand for that game so sorry 3100 from five years ago five grand i don't want to mess up on these numbers because you guys hold me to them okay congo this one's not kind of a shocker right uh five grand five years ago 6500 now there's a zero percent increase over last year 30 up over the five years this one took me off guard pun intended nba fast break it was worth 2,800 five years ago. Right now worth 4,500. It's down 2% from last year, but still up 61% from five years ago. Not a shocker. Everyone's talking about this game should be remade. This should be on Pangeretti's next list. Circus Voltaire. 2020, or the end of 2019, we were looking at 7,200. Right now it's worth 11 grand. 0% over the last year, but still up 53%. percent and the last one this one i was not expecting this one's out of left field for me i just yeah when i asked i asked multiple people what's the top what's the top valuable uh pinball machine over the last five years no one guessed this you ready for it champion pub 5200 before covid it eight grand right now eight percent over last year so it hasn taken a hit it one of the only ones that hasn taken a hit over the last year And over the last five years we up 54 overall bally williams are down five percent from last year but all together up 38 so these are great games they've there's some that range as low as 2,500 bucks there's some that go all the way up to 10 grand uh these are great i know one thing that was said on the episode last uh last month was as people wanted to know good value games because they're trying to get into the hobby and they want to buy these games, Valley Williams is where it's at. If you're looking for games that will increase over time, but you still have some fun with them, these are the games you're looking for. Okay, Data East. Data East's list was surprisingly short because they only made 17 of them before they sold out to Sega or Capcom. Someone's going to correct me. You do your work. All right. Number three. So tied for third for most valuable, uh, dating East really can't lethal weapon three and hook. They both dropped 3% over last year and they've both increased 45% over the last five years. Both games were worth 2,000 and 2,200. So hook was 2,200 lethal weapon, uh, 2,000. That was five years ago. Now 3,200 and 2,900 lethal weapon, 29 hook 32, uh, Second place, Royal Rumble WWF, 2,805 years ago. It is up 46% from pre-COVID. And last year it's up 8%. These games were high twos, lows threes. I know that the games behind me, the modern, a lot of people complain when they're trying to get in the hobby. These games are just too expensive. These are great games you can buy. Enjoy the hobby. and moving on to a better game and you're not losing value or you're gaining value over the life of the unit. So, okay, last one.
    13:00
    Kind of shocked me. You ready for this? TMNT. I'm not gonna lie. This is the first game I ever owned. The code is not great considering this was the second DMD game ever made because Data East started with Checkpoint and five years ago was worth two grand. Right now, 3,100. It did not gain anything over the last year, but 55% increase over. Overall, last year, we're down 4%, but we're still up 34% overall on the value of Data East. So those are some games. Honestly, looking at the five years, none of them have went down. Every single Data East has went up. And the worst negative right now is Batman. it kind of lost some value last year uh negative 25 so stay away from batman stay away from star trek it went down 20 last year and uh and maverick down seven percent but really you're two that are really tanking right now star trek and batman i just want to give a quick shout out say thank you everyone that is supporting uh if you want to check out more of our content we're at youtube at Loser Kid Pinball. The other thing is, I know I'm dropping this a couple days early. The reason being is we have a special episode planned this week and I didn't want to drop that episode and then drop this episode. So I want to give some breathing space to this. If you have any questions for us, we are Loser Kid Pinball Podcast at gmail.com or hit us up on all the socials at Loser Kid Pinball. Thanks for tuning in.
    14:40
    you