Episode 988: "The Fatigue is Real"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 37s·analyzed·Aug 21, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.034

TL;DR

Kaneda: pinball fatigue real—Marvel oversaturation, Stern pricing/QC issues, overpriced games tanking in resale value.

Summary

Kaneda discusses widespread fatigue in the pinball community around Marvel themes, Stern's pricing and launch strategy, and mounting quality control issues across manufacturers. He critiques Stern's repetitive product decisions, highlights manufacturing defects in games from Stern, Pedretti Gaming, and others, and expresses concerns about secondary market depreciation and incomplete code at launch.

Key Claims

X-Men Pinball launches in one week and community sentiment is largely indifferent or negative toward another Marvel theme
high confidence · Kaneda, opening segment; stated as current community observation
Stern has not done market research to determine X-Men is what the community wants right now
medium confidence · Kaneda, mid-episode; stated as opinion/critique of Stern's decision-making
Bohemian Rhapsody Queen pinball dropped from ~$11,000 to $8,500 on Cointaker within a year
high confidence · Kaneda, citing secondary market prices; verifiable claim about pricing
Dealer cost for a Stern premium is approximately $8,200, yielding ~$1,500 profit per sale
medium confidence · Kaneda, stated as hearsay ('I heard') with caveat for correction
Pedretti Gaming's Funhouse machines are shipping with manufacturing defects (coin door bracket installed wrong, screws too long)
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pinside forum post from early Funhouse owner; factual report of defects
Godzilla black and white premium is a compromised version; was originally intended to have mirrored back glass and nicer cabinet decals
medium confidence · Kaneda, reflecting on Godzilla LE delays and downgrade; based on prior announcements
Spooky Pinball announced five-year code support commitment for new games
high confidence · Kaneda, reporting Spooky's official policy; verifiable announcement
Scooby-Doo with 40 plays was listed for sale with $12k+ investment now selling for $9,000
high confidence · Kaneda citing secondary market listing; verifiable pricing observation
Jaws LE machines are difficult to find and sell for around $10,500 on secondary market
high confidence · Kaneda, stating secondary market observation

Notable Quotes

“I just think all those other elements are going to keep a lot more people on the sidelines as these Stern machines keep coming out every four months.”
Kaneda @ early-mid episode — Core thesis about Stern launch fatigue and market saturation
“At these prices, absolutely no room for compromises. I would never buy one because I will know deep down inside, this is not how Stern wants the game to look.”
Kaneda @ Godzilla section — Explains rejection of compromised Godzilla black and white premium despite high price
“I don't know any other hobby where people buy stuff that remains incomplete for so long.”
Kaneda @ code update discussion — Criticism of games shipping incomplete and requiring years of post-launch code updates
“Mike keeps saying like i'm not making games for americans And i'm not making games for pinball enthusiasts Then you're making pinball mike for nobody”
Kaneda @ Home Pin Blues Brothers discussion — Critique of Home Pin's stated market positioning as contradictory
“When I look at Jaws LEs, because I've been looking at Jaws LEs, they're hard to find. But when they do sell, they sell for like $10,500.”
Kaneda @ secondary market pricing section — Establishes $10,500 as reasonable LE pricing baseline, contrasting with higher Stern prices
“All this stuff is overpriced. All this stuff is losing so much money.”
Kaneda @ secondary market section — Summary of widespread depreciation across manufacturer products
“Just wait a week. Just wait a week before you pull the trigger on anything after you see it on Tuesday. If you wait a week, trust me, the giddiness will die down a little bit.”
Kaneda @ X-Men pre-launch section — Advice to buyers to resist FOMO and impulse purchases
“You shouldn't have to take a game out of a box and then start rebuilding it yourself.”

Entities

Jack Dangerperson KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyZombie Yetiperson Pedretti Gamingcompany Jersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyGreat American Pinballcompany

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Widespread community indifference or negativity toward X-Men Pinball despite AAA theme and acclaimed designer. Kaneda attributes this to Marvel oversaturation in broader media (Disney+, Star Wars) and perception of same repetitive themes from Stern.
high · Kaneda: 'The overwhelming response is kind of indifferent or somewhat negative... people really are not hoping and praying that we get another Marvel pin.'
?
product_strategy: Kaneda criticizes Stern's standard launch formula (Friday teaser, Tuesday dealer call, slow reveal) as outdated and ineffective for driving immediate sales decisions. Argues manufacturers should show everything on day one rather than creating artificial FOMO.
high · Kaneda: 'I think Stern needs to just show us a lot more on day one... the old model just doesn't work.'
$
market_signal: Widespread evidence of rapid price drops on secondary market: Bohemian Rhapsody down $2,500 in ~1 year; Scooby-Doo with 40 plays down ~$3,000; pattern consistent across multiple manufacturers. Suggests oversupply and buyer regret.
high · Bohemian Rhapsody: $11k → $8.5k; Scooby-Doo: $12k+ investment → $9k asking price
?
product_concern: Multiple reports of out-of-box defects: Jaws with ball hot-glued in shark mouth (misaligned factory modification); Funhouse with misplaced coin door bracket and oversized screws; Godzilla with trans light color inconsistencies. Pattern suggests inadequate QC across manufacturers.
high · Pedretti Funhouse: 'coin door bracket was installed in the wrong place... screws are so long they almost puncture through the cabinet.' Jaws: ball 'glued inside with a hot glue gun.'
?

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.083

0:00

One day I feel so happy, the next day I feel so sad. I guess I learned to take the good with the bad. Cause each night I ask the stars up above,

0:18

why must I be a teenager in love? Oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh, say, oh. Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. We are one week away, just one week, seven days from now, the entire pinball world will see Jack Danger's comic book edition of Stern Pinball, Zombie Eddie's X-Men Pinball, and in just a week, we are going to be inundated with a plethora of opinions. And I don't know about you, but I'm really excited, not just because Orbiter Albert is back in the house or Bond is posting on the Patreon chat again. What makes me really excited about this game is we're going to be able to have something brand new to talk about. And I'm curious if opinions on this game are going to shift because right now, right now, when you ask the community, are you excited about an X-Men themed pinball machine? The overwhelming response is kind of indifferent or somewhat negative. Like people really are not hoping and praying that we get another Marvel pin. And what was it like a year ago we got Venom or was it two years ago? I just forget. Now look, every Stern game is not a Marvel theme, but we're just at a point now in pinball where you're kind of good. And that's the thing, right? It's not about whether or not Stern has a variety of other themes. It's just like after a while, you get kind of sick of the same stuff. Here's the thing the apologists are missing. It's not just Stern Pinball making nine Marvel games. That's not why people don't want X-Men or a Marvel themed pinball machine right now. The reality is this. There's just so much Marvel content in the world. So much like on Disney Plus, we've been inundated with so much Marvel and so much Star Wars that people are just sick of it. Like it's just not something where you're clamoring for more of it. And I think that's going to be what Stern runs into with the launch of this game, because at these prices, like nobody goes in on games anymore just to have some pinball fun, because the amount of money you're going to lose if you do that is just too significant. So a week from now, we will see the teaser on Friday. We will see the game most likely on Tuesday. And I don't know about you, but I'm just kind of tired of the way Stern launches these games. It's always the same cookie cutter formula. It's like Friday teaser, then the Tuesday dealer call. Then we get the cell phone photos and then they try to like roll out this like week long of like revealing the game slowly. And it's so stupid because it's just show us everything on day one. You know, we're at the point now where you can't do this anymore because they try to create this weird FOMO. Remember, like what they normally do is just show us pictures and then a two minute video of someone in a dark room playing the game. but we don't get to see like a 20 minute gameplay video. We don't get nearly enough information to decide whether or not we need to pull the trigger now. And because you don't need to pull the trigger now, I think Stern needs to just show us a lot more on day one of a brand new pinball reveal. And I think the old model just doesn't work. Remember, they did it that way when they were day one sellouts of LE games. That's why they were able to sort of hold stuff back. But they need to change the game plan and give us everything on day one. So I'm curious to see how it goes. I do feel like the X-Men fatigue is real. I think the fatigue around Stern pricing is real. I think the fatigue around 1,000 LEs is real. And I think the fatigue around everybody losing money over the last three years is real. And I think when you add all of those things together, I think Stern better brace itself for another lukewarm response to this game. And it doesn't matter if you've got Yeti on artwork. It doesn't matter if you have what seemingly is a AAA theme in X-Men. It doesn't matter about gameplay anymore. I just think all those other elements are going to keep a lot more people on the sidelines as these Stern machines keep coming out every four months. Maybe I'm just living in a vacuum and maybe I'm just listening to what's inside my head or my fan base who keeps telling me they're done with new in-box purchases and maybe Stern's found a way to attract new people to pinball at these super high prices, but I don't buy it. I just don't buy it. I don't think Stern Games are flying off the shelves at distributors. I don't think enough new people are coming into the hobby at these prices. And I think overall, I think most people are just happy with the games they have in their collection and they don't need another Marvel game. So we'll see. We'll see. This game could be like the next Godzilla. It could change our minds. It could have so much cool stuff in it. But again, it just doesn't feel like the right theme at the right time to answer a demand by the community. And Stern Pinball has done zero. And I mean this. They've done zero market research to determine that this is the game people want right now. So I think they might be in for a little bit of a rude awakening. I think the same thing might happen with Metallica next. I just don't understand the decisions they're making. And it just feels like everyone is clamoring for Stern to do something big and new. That's what we want. Like, give us a big thing that we didn't expect. And if I had to summarize the reason why I think Stern is just misguided lately is every move they're making is so expected. Like you can see it from a mile away. They haven't delivered us anything that has any surprise and delight whatsoever. and to take this much money from us and to get us to believe in Stern again. I think they need to do something surprising. I think they need to do something unique. And I think they need to like up their platform I think they need to move this company into a position where the product itself justifies what the cost of these games are And they just not doing it Same themes over and over again. The platform itself looks really dated. You put a Stern machine next to a Jersey Jack. It looks really dated. It doesn't seem like it should be even close to the same price point. So we shall see what the opinions will be. I also think there's going to be a lot of flip flopping. I do. I think there's people in this hobby that are just addicted to new in box purchases. I think a lot of the newbies are that way. And I think even though people are like, I'm never buying new in box again, I think you might be blinded by the lights and the artwork and the newness of this game. I implore each and every one of you do this. Just wait a week. Just wait a week before you pull the trigger on anything after you see it on Tuesday. If you wait a week, trust me, the giddiness will die down a little bit. the FOMO will evaporate and you'll still be able to get the game. All right, so that's going to be a week from now. That is exciting. What else is happening in the world of pinball? I'm still following closely this black and white Godzilla issue, and I don't really know what the answer is going to be because is Stern Pinball going to send out to all these Godzilla premium owners all new CPUs to get those trans lights to look right? I don't know. I mean, that seems like it's going to be somewhat expensive. I will say this. If you ordered and have a Godzilla black and white premium, you should probably reach out to your distributor and make sure you're on the list or at least get it in writing. You would like any fix or solution that Stern Pinball is going to do. I think this is going to be difficult. And I keep looking at pictures of these Godzilla black and whites. And I'll say this, it is really hard when you're working with white to really ensure that every single time white appears in the game or on a trans light or on side cabinet artwork, it's going to be really hard to sort of make it so it's all unison. And my house, I'm just going to say this, my house, I painted it all white. There's white cabinets. There's white walls. There's white here. There's a white car in the garage. And white is one of the hardest colors. White is such a difficult color to make all the different things be white because depending on like the material, if it's wood, if it's plastic, if it's in this lighting at this angle, white changes to a different shade of white so quickly. So I'm not surprised that the trans light that might be lit a little bit differently than the rest of the game is looking so off and awkward. But here's the thing. We know it can be done. You got to go look at Great American Pinball. They made a black and white edition of Adam's Family and Twilight Zone. And when you look at their game, it is perfect. Like everything looks perfect. The entire game is actually a mind trip because when you see it in a lineup of colored games, it actually looks like you're in this like old black and white movie and it doesn't fit into the modern world. It's genius. I don't know why Stern can't just do that. As more and more people are looking at this thing, all of a sudden it's starting to sink in. As much as Stern was planning this beautiful black and white LE version, it was supposed to be an LE version. Now you're getting sort of like the compromised version of Godzilla black and white for $9,700.

10:34

And people are not happy with the way the game looks. And so you got to just ask yourself, do you want to spend $9,700 on something that's going to kind of annoy you when you look at it and it just doesn't look right. And here's the reason why I would never buy one. I would never buy one because I will know deep down inside, this is not how Stern wants the game to look. This isn't how they intended it to look. It was supposed to have a mirrored back glass. It was supposed to have nicer cabinet decals. And so you're going to spend 10 grand on a compromised version of the game. No, thank you, Stern Pinball. I don't want to buy anything if it's not made exactly how you want it to make it. At these prices, absolutely no room for compromises. I saw a funny story. This is a weird story. So a guy orders a Jaws premium machine. He gets his machine. He unboxes it. He's told from his distributor that it's a brand new Jaws premium. And he looks at the game and inside Bruce's mouth, you know, the main shark up the middle, inside Bruce's mouth is a pinball, like a dirty scratched up pinball that is glued inside with a hot glue gun or something. It is glued inside Bruce's mouth. And he goes to his distributor because he doesn't like it. And he's thinking about removing it. And there's all this glue everywhere. And it even looks like the top teeth of Bruce has been like filed down a little bit to get this ball in there. And he goes back to his distributor and he says, I don't like this. Can I get a new Bruce? And his distributor, the first response he gets from his distributor is funny. His distributor goes, Stern's putting the ball into the mouth of the shark now at the factory because they heard this is what people wanted. Okay, so that was the first correspondence from distributor back to the customer. Then he follows up and the distributor is like, well, wait a minute. That's not actually the case. This game was ordered by an operator who wanted the ball in the mouth like that. And apparently this customer got the game that was initially intended to be given to the operator. It's such a weird story. I don't get this. Do you think Stern Pinball would actually glue a ball inside a shark's mouth at the factory because an operator asked for it that way? And then somehow this guy gets that game? somebody's not telling the truth I mean it almost sounds like the distributor is being a little disingenuous like this game was most likely unboxed not at Stern somewhere else and that pinball was put into that shark's mouth and then this game was passed off as a brand new game to this customer and it's funny because if I was a customer I mean like that's total BS if I paid for a new game Why is my game coming with a modification that did not happen at the factory? And instead of like asking for a new game, this guy's like, well, it's okay, fine. They're going to send me a new Bruce and I'll just live with it. And it like I wouldn do it I would not do it If my game came with a modification that clearly happened at the distributor level and then you get these two different stories I mean these stories are so made up Never a dull moment on Pinside when you read what's going on with these games. Speaking of out of the box, haven't really been in this thread for a while because there hasn't been much activity, but someone posted this week. They are one of the first owners of Pedretti Gaming's Funhouse Pinball, And they unboxed it and they talked about what it was like taking this game out of the box. And go look at that thread. Instead of the thread being about how beautiful the game is, how great the gameplay is, how amazing it is to have a brand new fun house in the house. The thread is all about how this guy with a brand new game out of the box has to make all of these adjustments and fixes to the game that are annoying him. And some of them are just inexcusable, like his coin door. When he goes to open and close it, there's like a lot of stress on the door and a coin door should open and close super smoothly. And he realizes like the bracket to the coin door was actually installed in the wrong place. And then he takes the screws out of the bracket and he said the screws are so long, they're way too long for that kind of bracket that they almost puncture and go through the entire cabinet. So here's my thing, ladies and gentlemen, brand new game manufactured by Pedretti Gaming and nobody at the factory like opened up that coin door. And if those games are being made like that and they're installing the bracket in the wrong location, that's leading to this issue. You shouldn't have to take a game out of a box and then start rebuilding it yourself. We all need to sort of like wake up here. This is getting to the point now where pinball quality is like a country mile away from the prices of these games. There is no way, and especially if this is the first shipment of these games, when you know that the people who get these games are going to telegraph to everybody else what it's like being an owner. And the last thing that I would ever want to see if I'm even considering buying a new game is that the initial owners have to start rebuilding the games themselves because they come out of the box built wrong. That is absolutely a death blow to selling these games. And again, it just goes to show why you should wait and see, because you don't know what the quality is going to be. You don't know if they're going to be built right. The last thing you should have to do is change the placement of screws and brackets on a game that was built at a factory. It once again shows me that the quality control isn't there, that nobody is walking around these games and like opening up the coin doors, opening up the play fields, the trans lights, making sure everything is fit right. And again, it's an assembly line. This is the part I don't get. If you're building a pinball machine on an assembly line, every single part goes in the same place on every single game. So if this gentleman's game is having an issue with how the coin door opens up, wouldn't everyone have that issue? Once again, it never ceases to amaze me. The only thing I would accept out of the box are loose connectors. Like nothing else should be problematic. I mean that. Like you shouldn't have to bend wire forms. I'm looking at a guy, like the ball is getting stuck on a Godzilla wire form. Why? You shouldn't have to bend wire forms. You shouldn't have to like re-screw in brackets. You shouldn't have to do this stuff. All right, so that's that. So if you're in on a fun house, make sure your coin doors are opening properly. And I guess it's just like buyer beware for everybody nowadays. Speaking of buyer beware, what's gonna be the ultimate outcome of this haggis situation? Is nobody gonna get their money back? Is Damien gonna drive off in his Lotus into the sunset? I'm not seeing any lawsuits. I'm not even seeing much activity I don't know if these owners are getting together these guys who got burned but man it just feels like he's gonna get away with it and that's just sad to me and I think if I were Damien you know I couldn't sleep a wink at night knowing I had like 50 people that paid me in full and I never got them a game if I were him and we know that this guy's got some money I don't know I wouldn't be able to sleep until I paid those people back and not with a game. I mean, let's be honest here. This is not going to turn into Dutch. There's no way this guy is going to get more capital and figure it out. The other thing that's going to happen to all these fathoms, if you haven't been following, they're all going to fall apart. Remember, like there's separation happening between that laminate, like that plexiglass over the wood that is going to happen to all of these machines eventually. And when that does happen, I think all of these games are going to render themselves unplayable and you're not going to be able to get a fix. So again, if I were you, I would stay a country mile. I keep using that phrase. I would stay as far away as possible from these fathom games because I think you're going to see issues down the road and there's no longer a company. There is no longer customer support. Speaking of company and customer support, there is a new code update for Scooby-Doo. that is great the gang's all here the final wizard mode in the game i believe it is and it's nice to see that spooky pinball is telling people that they will code support a game for five years after launch i mean it's kind of like an automotive warranty now when i heard that i was like well that's great like they're gonna keep updating a game for five years i was also like well that means if you buy a spooky game you might be waiting five years for the final code update and you know how I feel about all this ladies and gentlemen I think we're at the point now where all these companies need to release games finished and the only thing we should get with code updates is polish and bugs that are being fixed but that's not the case like we're getting games and they're incomplete and they're incomplete a year after you bought them incomplete two years after you bought them if you own a Pirates of the Caribbean incomplete six years after you bought it and you know it's just like I don't know I don't know I don't really know any other hobby where people buy stuff that remains incomplete for so long? I don't get it. Would you buy a watch where they're like, well, we only put 11 hours into this watch for now. A year from now, you can have all 12 hours on the face of the watch. You just bought a new car. Well, we only gave you one door. Two years from now we give you the other door It an interesting thing And again at this cost it absolutely stupid I mean I get buying like a video game where they might update it but a box of lights can be finished on day one Makes no sense Makes no sense All right. Speaking of makes no sense, I'm looking at this Home Pin Blues Brothers game. Have you seen the photos of this thing? It doesn't have an LCD screen. It's going to be less than $5,000. and let me tell you, ladies and gentlemen, it looks like it's less than $5,000. Move over, Pulp Fiction, which, by the way, is supposed to be shipping end of September. I've lost all interest in Pulp Fiction. I really don't care at all. I just don't understand. I think Pulp Fiction is going to go down as one of the most underwhelming two-year launches of a game in the history of pinball. I just don't care anymore. I absolutely do not care at all. Now, speaking of not caring, I'm looking at this blues brother's image. I don't get it Like what's the market for this like mike keeps saying like i'm not making games for americans And i'm not making games for pinball enthusiasts Then you're making pinball mike for nobody like we're the biggest market in the pinball world And the only people that are going to spend money on pinball machines are pinball enthusiasts There's not going to be like some random blues brother fan who wakes up one day and wants to stick this thing in his home. Oh man, man, oh man, oh man. All right, a couple more things I want to talk about. First is if you bought a Bohemian Rhapsody Queen pinball machine for $10,995. Check this out, ladies and gentlemen. This is why I've been telling people to wait and see. So if you bought this game like a year ago, we all know this game, Iceman and Beezleboob think it's the greatest game ever that no one else understands. So these gentlemen bought it for basically $11,000. You can now go get this game on Cointaker's website brand new for $8,500. Brand new. And they're selling it at that much money. So basically a $2,500 savings if you just wait it a year. And it comes with free shipping. Everybody, we need to wake up. We need to wake up. This game always should have been $8,500. It never should have been $11,000. When I look at Jaws LEs, because I've been looking at Jaws LEs, they're hard to find. But when they do sell, they sell for like $10,500. So think about that. That seems to be where a Stern LE should have stayed. That's what Godzilla LE was. And all these other companies, they saw that Stern took their prices all the way up to $13,000. and then they all tried to sneak in over 10 grand. And it's just not gonna work. I saw another for sale thread, Scooby-Doo, right? Scooby-Doo with a butter cabinet with 40 freaking plays, people, 40. I mean, why would anyone even buy a game and only play it 40 times? That's like going on a date with a woman and only using 40 words to get to know her. And so this guy's got a butter cabinet, only 40 plays, over $12,000 invested in the game, and you can have it today for $9,000. I mean, these stories are just everywhere. I'm sorry if I sound like a broken record, but that's because what we're seeing in the pinball marketplace is the same thing across the board. All this stuff is overpriced. All this stuff is losing so much money. And if it wasn't for map pricing. If Stern actually allowed dealers to set the price on these games, you would see such a lowering of what we could get games for. Do you know what the cost to a dealer is for like a premium? It's like $8,200 I heard. So they're making almost $1,500 to sell us a premium. I mean, if I'm wrong, please correct me. But why should this information be private? Like, why should a dealer make $1,500 to sell us a premium? I mean, they're making a lot of money if that's the case. I just really want to see prices come back down to earth. I know all of us do. I just want to because if they do come back down to earth, what also is going to come back down to earth is the excitement around a new game launch. Now, speaking about excitement around a new game launch, there is excitement around Alice in Wonderland. I mean, the thread's not blowing up, but I did see a lot of activity in it. So I marched in there. What's everybody talking about in the Alice's Adventures in Wonderland thread? And in typical Pinside fashion, it got really creepy. Like this weird guy was like complaining about an adult version of Alice with like her tatas out because he's like, this is one of the most famous children's book of all time and Alice should be 10 years old and you're not allowed to make her into a sexualized being. And it got really creepy. And I just want to say this. There are some very strange men on Pinside. And the last place that I want to go to talk about sexuality and the over sexualization of women is on Pinside. And I think if you could see what some of these people looked like who are actually typing on Pinside, you would never in a million years ask their opinion about women, sexualization, politics, any of it. I mean, it can get really creepy, people. And I think when people see this game, they're going to realize that you're allowed to take Alice in Wonderland and make an adult version of Alice. and it's Alice's Adventures in Wonderland. So what? Maybe she's a little bit older. So what? She's 25 years old in the game. And I think when you see her, yes, she is sexy. Yes, the Queen of Hearts is sexy. Yes, they're trying to sell this game. There's a lot of creepy men on pin side where this is as close as you're ever gonna get to seeing a woman that attractive, everybody. Everybody, thank you for being a member of Canada's Pinball Podcast. We will talk to you soon. A lot's going to happen. We're going to see that teaser on Friday, and then we're going to have so much to talk about next week when we get Stern's latest game. Peace out.