Episode 119 Toy Story HYPE TRAIN

Poor Man's Pinball Podcast·podcast_episode·analyzed·May 19, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

Drew tempers Toy Story hype with realism on pricing, playfield quality, and market cycles.

Summary

Drew from Poor Man's A A Pinball Podcast discusses the intense hype surrounding the upcoming Jersey Jack Pinball machine, citing a viral post by Mr. Kaneda predicting massive demand and secondary market appreciation. While acknowledging Toy Story will be a good game with a fantastic theme, Drew urges caution against FOMO-driven purchasing, predicts playfield issues will persist, forecasts pricing at $13,000 LE and $16,000-$17,000 CE, and argues the hype cycle repeats predictably as new releases cool previous games. He also announces the Toy Story reveal is rumored for May 23rd and teases upcoming podcast guests and network expansions.

Key Claims

Toy Story will be revealed on May 23rd (rumored to be a Monday)
medium confidence · Drew, Poor Man's A A Pinball Podcast, Episode 119 - stated as rumor but specific date given
Toy Story LE will likely be priced at $13,000 and CE at $16,000-$17,000
medium confidence · Drew's prediction based on market trends and demand/supply dynamics
Jersey Jack Pinball has been ramping up production significantly
medium confidence · Drew citing production increases, mentioning Guns N' Roses run of ~5,000 units
Guns N' Roses was a massive success for Jersey Jack Pinball
high confidence · Drew personal testimony - bought his first new JJP in box due to GNR success
JJP has continued to have playfield issues over the years
medium confidence · Drew's observation based on historical pattern of JJP machines
Stern will release their next game in August with additional game releases at end of year
low confidence · Drew speculation about Stern's release schedule affecting secondary market

Notable Quotes

“I can feel a disturbance and the pinball force is coming. Lord Lawler is at the gates.”
Mr. Kaneda (quoted by Drew) @ Early in episode — Iconic hype statement about Toy Story demand; exemplifies community FOMO sentiment
“this game is so great. is loaded and will be an epic exit for lord lawler those waiting on the fence because of playfield issues wise up there's nothing you can do as mirko is making them and if you grab a ce you will be making thousands over what you paid”
Mr. Kaneda (quoted by Drew) @ Early in episode — Predicts secondary market appreciation and references 'Lord Lawler' (Pat Lawlor); suggests CE buyers could profit
“stay off the hype train, you know. And you will be able to get these because the one thing I can say is J.J.P. has really been ramping up production”
Drew @ Mid-episode — Core thesis: balance between supply availability and FOMO risk
“I firmly believe they could charge 15 000 for an le i don't think they'll go that high but they could they could charge 15 grand for an le and 17 or 20 for a CE”
Drew @ Mid-episode pricing discussion — Shows perceived upper bound of pricing tolerance; indicates Drew sees room for price increases
“these cycles, they come and they go and I've been around long enough now in this, what, seven, eight years, I've watched this cycle repeat itself over and over and over again”
Drew @ Mid-episode — Drew positioning himself as experienced observer who has seen hype cycles before; sets skeptical tone
“FOMO is lining the pockets of these manufacturers, which is fine. It's good. I, you know, I'm once again, I am part of the problem”
Drew @ Mid-episode philosophy section — Self-aware critique of industry business model; acknowledges complicity
“if you really, really think about this purchase and you say, should I buy this? Is this going to enrich my life? The answer is usually no”
Drew @ Philosophy section — Broader critique of consumption culture applied to pinball; honest evaluation of luxury goods

Entities

DrewpersonMr. KanedapersonPat LawlorpersonTim LeepersonZachpersonNicolepersonDoc FinlaypersonJohn HallpersonTim and Rachelperson

Signals

?
rumor_hype: Mr. Kaneda's Facebook post predicting Toy Story will be transformative, comparing demand to Guns N' Roses, asserting secondary market value gains similar to GNR CE collectors. Post frames Toy Story as 'epic exit' and contrasts with previous year's 'nonsense' pre-orders.
high · Drew quotes Kaneda extensively; post generated significant Facebook discussion; characterized as very influential in community discourse
~
sentiment_shift: Community sentiment shows extreme FOMO and hype around Toy Story, with expectations it will outperform Guns N' Roses. Drew observes pattern of irrational exuberance followed by cooling as new products release.
high · Drew notes 'lot and a lot of discussions' on Facebook; Kaneda post is viral; Drew explicitly warns against FOMO; historical cycle pattern repeated with Jurassic Park, Deadpool, Avengers
$
market_signal: Community believes Toy Story CE will appreciate significantly in secondary market, with collectors comparing to Guns N' Roses CE performance where owners made 'thousands' profit.
high · Kaneda quote: 'if you grab a ce you will be making thousands over what you paid'; Drew acknowledges this is driving FOMO but counsels against it
?
product_strategy: Drew predicts Jersey Jack will price Toy Story aggressively: LE at $13,000 and CE at $16,000-$17,000, justifying price via demand, supply chain constraints, and employee compensation.
medium · Drew frames as 'unpopular opinion but realist'; notes 'good business'; acknowledges manufacturers 'can charge more and make it a little easier on their employees'
?

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.056

0:00

Oh, don't ask why Hello, everyone. This is Drew with the Poor Man's Pinball Podcast. This is episode 119. Let's get right into it. I want to talk about the hype that is Toy Story. Seems to be on everyone's mind. There's been a lot and a lot, a lot of discussions going on on Facebook. Mr. Kaneda did a post earlier today, and it goes something like this. Look, I've heard from someone that has seen this machine and can't even stand Pat personally, and he's basically said this game is so great. is loaded and will be an epic exit for lord lawler those waiting on the fence because of playfield issues wise up there's nothing you can do as mirko is making them and if you grab a ce you will be making thousands over what you paid those that listen to me on a gnr ce are thankful they listened sure they made some money um these games demand this game's demand will smash gnrs and make everyone wish they didn't pre-order all the other nonsense this past year am i overhyping it? Not even close. I can feel a disturbance and the pinball force is coming. Lord Lawler is at the gates. So what do I think about all this? Well, I think it's going to be a good game. I don't think anyone's really disputing that this game is going to be fun, but then again, it's pinball, right? Do I think it's a second coming? No. I think there's going to be a lot of people in line. I think they are going to have some more play field issues because they've continued to have them over the years and I don't think this will be any exception. Um, but at the end of the day, it is still a pinball machine. I just want to caution people that I know no one wants to hear that. They want to all the magic and wonder. Um, and I'm not cynical. I'm just, but this is what it is, right? All these games come out and it's always, Oh, this game's going to be so fantastic. And then, you know, we're always let down a little bit, especially when it's a fantastic theme. and and i believe toy story is a fantastic theme so um you know i i don't want to burst anybody's bubble but um it's it's another jjp game it's gonna be fun it's gonna be expensive so i'm interested to see how that's gonna shake out um especially given you know all the the the different negative things that have been happening in the world the the stock market you know kind of you know taking taking a pretty big hit i mean you know anyone who has any money invested has has taken a large large hit as of late so um is that going to affect some sales you know maybe maybe not i mean we're probably my my real bet is there's going to be a lot of people putting games on the market so you're going to see a lot of games come up for sale because people are going to want to jump on on board with this thing and you know maybe there'll be some deals. Maybe this will actually change the pinball market. If it is that great, that wouldn't that be interesting. You know, people could start putting up all their games for sale. They really want to get this thing and you know, who knows it could happen, but you know, the, these cycles, they come and they go and I've been around long enough now in this, what, seven, eight years, I've, I've watched this cycle repeat itself over and over and over again. And it's always the same thing. Um, you know, granted Godzilla is still, they're still cranking on a ton of godzillas i'm still waiting on mine it is a fantastic game but you know as soon as stern releases their next game um you know the it's it's going to cool off even more you know they're going to keep making them for three years and that's great and they're going to sell a lot of them but you know the next game is going to get released in august and then you know another game might get released at the end of the year and every time that happens these uh games like jurassic park and Deadpool and Avengers, they, they lose a little steam, even though the market's super hot and people are paying a lot for these games, you know, they, they, they cool down a bit. So that's just, that's just what I see. And, um, you know, I, I just had to play devil's advocate here a little bit and say, you know, this, this game, I don't believe is going to be the greatest game of all time I think it going to be a great game You know it probably be in the top 10 for a while We have to see what the code looks like We need to see what in this game Are there going to be super cool mechs or is it going to be just some cool artwork, and are they going to have a bunch of great voices? Chances are, no. The actors that did voices for Toy Story, those are some big, big names. You're talking about Tom Hanks and Tim Allen, and, you know, a handful of others that, you know, they're going to want to get paid just like anybody else. So, you know, maybe it'll be like Ghostbusters. They'll get one or two of them, and they'll do all the call-outs or something to that effect. So, you know, I'm just curious what happens. But, you know, don't jump on the hype train, you know. And you will be able to get these because the one thing I can say is J.J.P. has really been ramping up production. and hopefully they have a run you know like guns and roses where they do 5 000 of them and you will be able to get your hands on them but let's talk about price you know i've said this and very unpopular opinion but i'm a realist so i firmly believe they could charge 15 000 for an le i don't think they'll go that high but they could they could charge 15 grand for an le and 17 or 20 for a CE, but realistically, I think the LE is going to be about $13,000 and the CE is going to be $16,000, potentially $17,000. I really think that's where we're going with these prices. And they should with the demand and supply chain stuff. I mean, they can charge more and make it a little easier on their employees and, you know, still sell out. So I think, you know, once again, It's an unpopular opinion, but it's good business, and I think it's what's going to happen. So we'll see. Send me a note on our Facebook Poor Man's Pinball fan page or poormanspinballgmail.com. Let us know what you think. Where do you think the prices are going with this? But anyways, yeah, stay off the hype train. FOMO is lining the pockets of these manufacturers, which is fine. It's good. I, you know, I'm once again, I am part of the problem, but, you know, as I continue on in this hobby, I continue to, you know, think about my purchases more and more. And I'm not as quick to pull the trigger on a lot of these. Yes, I'm buying a lot of new games. You guys see this buying, selling, doing different things. But but I don't need to be in on everyone, you know, like Rush was released. I was like, yeah, it's a fun game. but you know, I just have no interest. Not like Tim Lee who sucks at pinball, by the way, that guy, every game that comes out, he'll tell me, he goes, ah, yeah, I'm not really interested. And then like literally three days later, almost every time he'll be like, yeah, I think I'm gonna, I'm gonna call flipping out pinball and, uh, order a, order a game. Shameless plug, flipping out pinball, call Zach and Nicole. Um, don't ask me for their number. Cause you can look it up online per Canada flipping out pinball, F-L-I-P-N-O-U-T pinball.com. So anyways, yeah, where was I with that? Oh yeah. Tim Lee, Tim Lee sucks at pinball and sucks at ordering games or he's great at ordering games cause he orders everyone. Um, no, just having some fun. So anyways, that, that was all, I mean, I, you know, I just, I think it's, like I said, I think it's really interesting. And I think, um, you know, there's, there's a lot of businesses built on this model, right? You know, stuff that you don't need is stuff that they have to hype up. That's how they get you to buy it. Because let's be honest, if you really, really think about this purchase and you say, should I buy this? Is this going to enrich my life? The answer is usually no. And that's not just pinball. That's everything. And I'm not getting on my soapbox because I'm to keep buying because I love it. I have so much fun with it. I love to play my games. I love going in my basement, turning them on, looking at the cool art, you know, having a drink. So no, there's nothing wrong with that. But it is just funny when you strip it away. Or what's even better is when you tell somebody this who's not into pinball and they're just like, what the fuck is wrong with you That my favorite Because a lot of people won be that brash They just look at you they give you that look and they be like oh yeah that cool dude And you know that they just like what is wrong with you So I always get a kick out of that. But anyways, it's just fun. And, you know, back to the hype train and Toy Story, I'm super excited to see what they do. I mean, Guns N' Roses was a massive success, so much so that I bought my first new Jersey Jack. in a box. So wouldn't that be something actually order Jack in a box? Ooh, did I just make a bad dad joke? So that was all I had for you today. I didn't want to drone on and, you know, just give you random pinball thoughts with not much going on in the news. Cause that, that is going to be the next big news. Let's be honest, you know, um, JJP it's, it's rumored that May 23rd, which, um, I don't have my calendar, but I believe is Monday is the day that they're going to reveal it so we can all look forward to that on Monday. But I just wanted to get a little something out here for the masses. I had a little bit of time. This could be the shortest poor man's episode of all time, except for maybe Ian's little four minute teaser that he did. But, you know, we're at about 10 minutes. I just wanted to give you guys the thoughts. And also I wanted to kind of plug what's what's going on next uh we have i have some some great guests lined up um i'm not going to announce them just yet just in case they don't happen but i have three great guests in the pipeline uh people have been clamoring for john hall to come back by the way john hall has started streaming on twitch for the poor man's pinball network so thank you so much john hall go check come out. It's Jay Hall sucks at pinball SUX. So check it out. Jay Hall sucks at pinball, um, on Twitch, check out his new stream. I don't think he's landed on a particular day yet. He had a, a poll up on the Facebook, um, fan page. So go check that out and vote and please, please subscribe to him. And, uh, let's, let's help get, uh, poor man's pinball network streaming off the ground. I'd also like to give a special shout out to Tim and Rachel with their multi-ball. They keep plugging along. They had Tribe member Eric on last week. It was a fantastic episode. Eric and Tim and Rachel talked about MGC and all the fun we had and all the debauchery. So that was a really cool episode. And I can officially announce now that Mr. Orbital Albert will be joining the PPN, Poor Man's Pinball Network. Very, very soon we will have some more details. The cat is out of the bag. Orby is jumping ship and coming to the Poor Man's Pinball Network. So we are really, really excited about that. And he should. He's a tribe member as well. So we are really, really excited to have him. I wanted to do a big, big launch, but you know what? I'm just so excited. Orby's coming to PPN. So make sure to send him a message and congratulate him and tell him how awesome he is, how rad he is. Rate meow. See what I did there? He always says meow.

12:36

I am just entertaining myself today. I am having a lot of fun with this short little episode because it's a short episode. It's easy. It's fun. I'm in a good mood. I got some energy today. It's fantastic. And then last but not least, as part of the tribe member stuff that we're talking about, We have a special induction, another tribe member coming next week. So you can stay tuned for that. And we I have had I now officially have a tribe where we're calling a tribe selection committee. And we kind of have a process for selecting tribe members. So people who we feel are potentially, that's the word, potentially worthy of tribe membership, you will be getting a message from me in the coming week and it'll kind of explain that process. OK, so if you don't get one this week, that doesn't mean that you're not going to be eligible for the tribe. But, you know, we're only going to do a certain number of pledges at a time. And all of those pledges are not necessarily going to get into the tribe. But we really wanted to because of all the interest, we wanted to come up with an actual process. I know I talked about it You guys probably thought I was never going to get anything off the ground Sound like my wife It you know you a procrastinator blah blah blah But I did So we have a tribe selection committee that composed of 12 people 12 tribe members plus myself And the tribe members who were chosen they were chosen just because they participate the most in tribe activities and conversations and stuff like that. There's no, you know, favoritism or anything weird like that. It was just, Hey, these are the people that I interact with the most. And, um, I had to, you know, I couldn't have them all cause it's just too many. So anyways, uh, we're 44 strong. We're, we're looking to get some more great people in there. So, uh, I'm really excited about this. So stay tuned for some more details there. If you want to be in the tribe, send me a message. Um, and I can tell you a little bit more about the tribe and how you could potentially become a tribe pledge member. I guess that might be the word. I don't know. We don't have official names. We're just calling them pledges. Maybe we'll do some hazing and some rituals or I don't know. I don't know what these guys are going to do with these pledges, but it's probably going to be entertaining. So we'll see. Anyways, that's what I have for you today. This is episode 119. I want to thank you so much for listening. I really, really, really want to thank our two premier sponsors of the Poor Man's Pinball podcast and the Poor Man's Pinball Network. And that is Flippin' Out Pinball, Call Zach and Nicole for all your pinball needs. And Doc Finlay, pinballprices.com. Doc just uploaded, I think, like 200 plus more sales, like literally millions of dollars in pinball sales. So that's pretty cool. So go to pinballprices.com. Please, please, please help support him. There's a donate button on there. Because unlike Zach and Nicole, who are still awesome, you know, that's their business. They make a lot of money doing what they do, which is fantastic. and they should, but Doc Finlay does it for the love of pinball and he needs beer. So go to pinballprices.com, hit that donate button, buy Doc a beer. Buy him three, buy him eight, buy him 12. How about 15 beers for Doc? I don't know. Let's see if we can get them up. You know what? Let's challenge you guys. I'm going to see if we can get Doc 25 beers in the next 10 days because that'll probably be the next time I have an episode up. So, so the goal is to get doc Finlay 25 donations of $3, $4. See, I sound like Canada now it's only $5 a month and you can get pinball prices.com, but see, but you don't have to pay every month. It can just be one time just to say, Hey, I like what you're doing, doc. I've used your site a couple of times. Thank you for all your hard work. That's it. So that's, yeah, do that. Donate. Donate today. I'm going to go right now. I'm going to donate. So thank you once again for listening. This is episode 119. We will talk later.