Episode 969: "Taking Advantage of a Wounded Stern"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·18m 20s·analyzed·Jun 24, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.031

TL;DR

No pinball manufacturer positioned to exploit Stern's John Wick disaster; industry theme selection catastrophically off-target.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes John Wick's catastrophic market failure as a rare Stern misstep, examining which manufacturers are positioned to capitalize on this window of opportunity. He concludes that none of the current competition (Spooky, Barrels of Fun, Dutch Pinball, Haggis, Multimorphic, Turner, Pinball Brothers, American Pinball, Chicago Gaming, Jersey Jack) have the right game ready at the right time, and argues that the industry has fundamentally misread its 40-60 year-old male demographic, producing themes (Abba, Elton John, Funhouse remake, BBQ) that don't resonate while sitting on proven IP that would generate real FOMO.

Key Claims

John Wick Limited Edition buyers have lost approximately $4,000 in value, with depreciation worse than Venom
high confidence · Kaneda, episode opening; observing secondary market pricing on Pinside
Stern manufactured 1,000 John Wick Limited Edition units with minimal demand, likely destined for dealer/distributor inventory
high confidence · Kaneda; based on observed secondary market saturation
Jersey Jack Pinball is producing all 1,000 units of Elton John Collector's Edition
high confidence · Kaneda; stated as confirmed
No pinball manufacturer currently has a game ready to ship that could capitalize on John Wick's weakness
high confidence · Kaneda; systematic elimination of all 12+ competitors through scheduling conflicts
Current FOMO is dead not because the market is saturated, but because themes are wrong; proven IPs (Matrix, Top Gun, Karate Kid, Die Hard, Fifth Element, Batman 89, Beetlejuice) would reignite FOMO instantly
medium confidence · Kaneda; opinion-based prediction about market psychology
Spike III platform will be underwhelming and prioritize DLC model over physical experience, directed by Seth Davis
medium confidence · Kaneda; personal prediction on future Stern direction
American Pinball has had a designer/contractor on salary for three years with no executed game releases
medium confidence · Kaneda; critical commentary about company execution and management
Barrels of Fun should cut Labyrinth production to 750 units instead of waiting for additional 400 orders
low confidence · Kaneda; unsolicited business advice based on speculation

Notable Quotes

“Stern Pinball usually does not get it this wrong, but my gosh, did they really get it wrong?”
Kaneda @ Opening — Frames John Wick as unprecedented Stern failure
“If you bought an Elite version of John Wick, you just lost like $4,000 because there's less demand for this game than even Venom.”
Kaneda @ ~2:30 — Quantifies severity of secondary market depreciation
“Stern is looking really vulnerable.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00 — Key thesis: opportunity window exists for competitors
“Not one pinball company right now is geared up to take advantage of this moment. Nobody like nobody's got a game ready to go.”
Kaneda @ ~15:00 — Central paradox: opportunity exists but no competitor positioned to exploit it
“The pinball buying demographic, 40 to 60 year old men, that's what we're hitting them with... Abba? No. Elton John? Kind of, but not as good as it could be.”
Kaneda @ ~18:30 — Identifies theme-demographic mismatch as systemic problem
“It's not that hard. The moment these companies stop making bad decisions, stop making games that they want to make for themselves, and actually look at what we want, what we're willing to buy, what if they delivered we would buy instantly.”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Core critique of industry decision-making philosophy
“I think Spike III's gonna be underwhelming. I don't think it's going to make a Stern machine look or present as good as a Jersey Jack Pinball.”
Kaneda @ ~23:30 — Prediction about upcoming Stern platform vs JJP competitive position
“If Jersey Jack Pinball can get the juggernaut themes that shoot well, that have great artwork, I think Jersey Jack has great momentum going into the second half of this year.”
Kaneda @ ~24:00 — Positions JJP as potential beneficiary if they land right IP

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJohn Wickgame Barrels of Funcompany Jersey Jack Pinballcompany Dutch PinballcompanyMelvin Harry Williamsperson

Signals

$
market_signal: John Wick Limited Edition machines experiencing $4,000+ depreciation, with multiple units appearing simultaneously on Pinside; sales described as worse than Venom, indicating severe demand destruction
high · Kaneda observing John Wick LEs 'pop up for sale on Pinside' and quantifying ~$4,000 losses; James Bond 60th comparison at $12,000 asking price
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product_concern: John Wick machine's commercial failure attributed partly to licensing constraints prohibiting gun imagery on playfield, limiting thematic integrity and player engagement
medium · Kaneda mentions 'John Wick without guns' as contributor to weak market reception; previously contextualized as licensing limitation in KB
~
sentiment_shift: Community perception that FOMO is 'dead,' but Kaneda argues it's actually theme-driven — FOMO would return instantly if Matrix, Top Gun, Karate Kid, Die Hard, Fifth Element, Batman 89, or Beetlejuice were announced
high · Kaneda's extended rhetorical section: 'If FOMO is dead, then what's gonna happen when... If these things come out... you will see FOMO all over again. But the reason why there's no FOMO is it's just like stuff you don't really want.'
?
industry_signal: Systematic analysis reveals no manufacturer has game ready to capitalize on Stern's John Wick weakness; represents coordination gap or market timing misalignment across entire industry
high · Kaneda methodically eliminates Spooky (Looney Tunes/TCM), Barrels (Labyrinth), Dutch (Q3/EOY delays), Multimorphic (Princess Bride unshipped), Turner, Pinball Brothers, American, Chicago Gaming, etc.
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Topics

John Wick secondary market collapse and depreciationprimaryManufacturer readiness to exploit Stern's vulnerabilityprimaryIndustry theme selection and demographic misalignmentprimaryFOMO dynamics and proven IP wishlistprimarySpike III platform and DLC monetization modelsecondaryJersey Jack Pinball's competitive positioning and momentumsecondaryAmerican Pinball's execution failures and management issuessecondarySummer market softness and economic uncertaintymentioned

Sentiment

negative(-0.72)— Kaneda is deeply critical of industry decision-making, manufacturer readiness, and theme selection. While acknowledging future potential with right IPs, his tone is frustrated and pessimistic about current state. Criticism extends across nearly all manufacturers except tentative optimism for Jersey Jack Pinball's future positioning if they secure proper IP.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.055

Welcome everybody to Kenaidus Pinball Podcast. It's Monday, it is mid-June and I'm watching all of these John Wick LEs pop up for sale on Pinside and I've been thinking about it all day. Who's gonna take advantage of this moment in pinball? Stern Pinball usually does not get it this wrong, but my gosh, did they really get it wrong? Let's talk about a moment in which the big pinball juggernaut has swung and missed for the fences with John Wick, who out there in the pinball world should have been taking advantage of this moment right now. Before we do that, a huge shout out to John for sending me these pin stadium lights for my Guns N' Roses machine. The one machine that doesn't need more lighting. We're gonna figure out if these Neo concert editions are worth it. I also want to give a huge shout out to Mr. Ryan Lowe, who just sent me and Brenda some Morimoto Rose And a little bit extra to go on a date night. Thank you, Ryan Lowe. I really do have the best fans in all the pinball and also a thank you to Ken Cromwell over at JJP who's going to give me another sticker sheet of all of those Guns N' Roses records because I destroyed mine on day one. Alright, so here we are. John Wick. Who bought it? Unless Stern can manufacture 999 Donald Garrisons in the world, for the most part, this game is never gonna sell. And if you bought one, and I mean this, if you bought an Ellie of John Wick, you just lost like $4,000 because there's less demand for this game than even Venom. I mean it. I mean this thing had a much rockier launch than venom with the nunchucks and the swords and Gungate and I think people are just tired I mean I'm watching these James Bond 60th now are selling for like $12,000 or best offer and now you're trying to push these John wicks for 13 and Stern is looking really vulnerable So, who can take advantage of this moment? Who's ready to take advantage of this moment? When you think about all the scheduling out there, Spooky Pinball still got to make Looney Toons and Texas Chainsaw Massacre. So this is not the right time for them. Barrels of Fun still has to make all these Labyrinth games. Now, if you ask me, I think they're stalling on cutting the number they're going to make. They need to just say, we're only making 750. They're not going to get 400 more orders of Labyrinth. Just cut it and say by the end of the year, we will be done with Labyrinth production. But we know they can't take advantage of John Wick being such a soft seller. You know, Dutch Pinball, they're not ready. I mean, Alice in Wonderland, if they dropped it right now, would have been better timing than Q3 of 2024. I just want to say Melvin Williams over at DPX, he reached out to Kaneda, really nice guy. We're going to have a talk sometime soon. I'm going to try to figure out if I can do my interviews again if I have time. And I have to figure out how to do it so I can record it the right way. But they're not coming out with Alice in Wonderland until Q3. And we all know that Back to the Future is not coming out until maybe I think the earliest the end of this year. So that takes Dutch Pinball off the table. Haggis Pinball can't even make its own damn game. Like, I think they're out of business. Haggis Pinball can't take advantage of this. So we count them out. Then you got multi Morphic with Princess Bride Where that game at people I mean what a great time to announce that Princess Bride games are shipping while John Wick is dead on arrival But hey did anybody unbox a single Princess Bride game Nope When did they take money on that game Like two months ago three months ago So there another company that can take advantage of this that eliminates them Turner pinball I don know man Like yeah as I'm going to go buy Ninja Eclipse. No offense Chris Turner, I know you're listening to this, but we should talk. We should talk about marketing brother because you need a theme people want and even though your game is priced as cheap as a Stern Pro, Stern Pros still carry names like Star Wars and Jurassic Park and so you know you're not really going to win over people because those options are still far more enticing. And so we're not going to see them I'm going to go ahead and take advantage of it. You got the pinball brothers would be a great company to hit with the right title at the right time. John Wick dead on arrival and the pinball brothers is serving up Abba in one of the ugliest cabinets of all time. I don't think that game's going to do well. But dready gaming's got fun house remake 2.0 Rudy's nightmare. That's something that I think is shipping sometime soon. I think it's on the line right now. So is Abba. But let's be honest, ladies and gentlemen, these games are not going to move units. I mean Stern Pinball will make 1,000 John Wick Ellie's just think about that for a minute. Where are those games going to go? the answer is they're most likely most of them are gonna go to dealers and distributors and most of them are going to be Winning Fever Winning Fever Winning Fever I'm not going to make less of them and they're charging so much money when a game doesn't sell it's going to sit. Alright, so John Wick sitting in boxes. Who's gonna get your money? And I think I've noticed this on pin side. I think sales are really soft across the board. I think a lot of you are at a room. Some of you are looking at the economy maybe a little bit nervously like it's an election year. Who knows what's gonna happen? Some of you have decided to take the pinball money and do other stuff with it. It's also the summertime. I've noticed this. I've always said this. Pinball is a little bit of a winter WPPR recipiert rectangleppuu bleibt 누� fameta word wid そ installment the vast ainsi Malek 조 Youre youre fol firsthand fameta ISIL advising ass I'm John Papadiuk, and I'll see you next week. are you a fan of John Wick? It's the same amount of games that Jersey Jack is making of Elton John Collector's Edition and they've confirmed they're making all 1000 units. Is Jersey Jack in a good position to take advantage of Stern mishap with John Wick Well here the thing It like they should be getting ready for their next game but I just don think we are there yet I actually don think Jersey Jack next is going to come out before Stern next cornerstone game So I think Jersey Jack is going to miss a golden opportunity to take advantage of the week John Wick sales. And Elton John, you know, it's hard to tell how well it's selling. I think it's still going to be a little bit of a slow burn game. I think it's just really expensive. I think people are excited that the game shoots well, but I think most people are probably going to wait until they see what's down the road from Jersey Jack because Steve Ritchie is not going anywhere. Steve Ritchie is going to help mentor Eric Minier and Mark Mark Seiden. And I think the next two years are going to be great for Jersey Jack Pinball. I think the pressure is on Stern Pinball for sure. So Jersey Jack, it's not the right time. They've got to sell these Elton John units. You know which company should be hitting with something right now that we all want? They've been around for like eight years and that company is American Pinball. They know how to make games. They screw games together well and they just have nothing. Great support, GoBand and Weis won't let you down, If you'm one of usFC WeeMG Geflection 하는 Live But that was like five years ago, right? Six years ago, he started on that. And so it's funny, right? Who's paying this guy's salary for three years and he hasn't executed a single thing. If there ever was a time for American Pinball to call an audible, get whatever they've got next on the line now, just pull the plug on this barbecue game, nobody's buying it, and just kind of quickly get to your next game if you have a next game. So American Pinball, nothing. CGC, nothing. Are you noticing what I'm getting at people? The world's largest pinball company, Stern Pinball, has one of its biggest flops ever happening right now. There are about 12 other pinball companies. Not one pinball company right now is geared up to take advantage of this moment. Nobody like nobody's got a game ready to go. Nobody's been waiting for this moment. When you think about the pinball landscape right now, the games that are currently out there, they just don't feel like this is it like at the most expensive this hobbies ever been with all of these companies making the effort. We currently right now when you think about it right now, the new inbox games, the brand new stuff, John Wick without guns, Elton John, Abba, Funhouse remake, Barry O's BBQ challenge, Pulp Fiction which has taken two years to get out, Looney Tunes, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Labyrinth and The Princess Bride. Like that's really it. And when I tell you the pinball buying demographic, 40 to 60 year old men, That's what we're hitting them with. Everybody, it's gonna get a lot better. This is a period in which I don't know like some weird decisions were made. Maybe it was the COVID virus. Maybe it was just the lack of market research, but whatever it is, and whatever it was, I think every single pinball company is going to have a reawakening and a re understanding of who's going to win. Who it is that buys your games? Your target audience is so easy to figure out. Abba? No. Elton John? Kind of, but not as good as it could be. Funhouse remake? Nobody asked for it Barbecue challenge Dead on arrival You know we need somebody to wake up and realize it not that hard The moment these companies stop making bad decisions, stop making games that they want to make for themselves, and actually look at what we want, what we're willing to buy, what if they delivered we would buy instantly. I mean seeing all these games now not sell out, it's not really a testament that FOMO is dead. It's more of a testament that they've gotten the themes all wrong. If you think FOMO is dead, then what's gonna happen when Back to the Future comes out? What's gonna happen if The Matrix comes out? What's gonna happen if Harry Potter comes out? Or Top Gun? Or Karate Kid? Or Die Hard? Or Fifth Element? Right? If these things happen and people deliver things that you really want, Beetlejuice, Batman 89, like if things came out that really struck an emotional chord, you will see FOMO all over again. But the reason why there's no FOMO is it's just like stuff you don't really want. And as I've been saying in this pinball market, as we're seeing, like all these used games sit forever for sale. I'm waiting to get it right more than ever. Now I'm waiting, I'm waiting to see who makes the big next move. Who do you think it's gonna be? You think it's gonna be Stern and Metallica, Spike III, Anniversary. You think it's gonna be that? Is it gonna be a black and white edition of Godzilla? Is Spike III even gonna be worth the hype? I'm just gonna go out on a limb right now and I think Spike III's gonna be underwhelming. I don't think it's going to make a Stern machine look or present as good as a Jersey Jack. I think it's all going to be about internet connectivity. I think it's going to be about them wanting to get to DLC. And I think DLC and Seth Davis steering this company towards DLC, I think is going to backfire on Stern. So I think that's going to be underwhelming. I think if Jersey Jack can get the juggernaut themes that shoot well, that have great artwork, I think JerseyJack has great momentum going into the second half of this year. I think CGC is going to make some moves that are interesting. More to come on that on a future show. I think Spooky Pinball has got some huge themes that are going to make their older themes less desirable. I was on Pinside today. I saw for the first time a Rick and Morty like bloodsucker edition. I'm going to be a little bit of a wait and see all of these big rumors. Some of them are going to come true. I think most of them are going to happen. And I think that's where we are at. Nobody's ready to jump on Stern as Stern is wounded. So, oh I wish you would like to know more about Pinball Сп сердal whoseources game this week. Desde the n 思 geschafft chrome appearing I'm going to be Jersey Jack. Do you think I'm right? Who do you think it's going to come from? Hit me up at kanedapinball at gmail.com and I will read your responses on the next episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Kaneda out. August,瓦加 revolution done Hey Jinnoh You're out of touch You're out of touch You're out of touch I'm out of touch으으으 영화