Episode 1186: "Pokemon Will Be The Fastest Selling Stern LE Ever...Good Luck Finding One"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·14m 41s·analyzed·Feb 10, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032

TL;DR

Pokémon Pinball will insta-sell 750 LEs and appreciate to $16-17k due to IP strength, not game design.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Pokémon Pinball will be the fastest-selling Stern LE ever due to the massive cultural reach of the Pokémon IP, predicting immediate sellout of the 750 limited units and significant secondary market appreciation ($16-17k resale vs $13k retail). He emphasizes the theme's mass appeal across age groups, contrasts Pokémon's cultural durability with the fractured Star Wars fanbase, and critiques the pinball community for overthinking gameplay depth over fun factor.

Key Claims

Pokémon is the biggest IP in the entire world ($151 billion franchise) with mass crossover appeal beyond traditional pinball demographics
high confidence · Kaneda speaking to the scale of Pokémon IP and its cultural penetration; verifiable claim about franchise value
All LE units are already sold out or extremely scarce across major distributors (Mad Pinball, Automated, Melissa, Zach/Flippin' Out)
medium confidence · Kaneda reporting on distributor inventory as of episode date (Feb 10); claimed calls to multiple distributors yielded 'gone' responses; anecdotal but specific to named retailers
Stern is producing only 750 Pokémon LEs vs 1,000 units for Venom and John Wick, signaling intentional scarcity strategy
high confidence · Kaneda directly comparing production numbers; this is factual claim about production decisions
Pokémon LE will appreciate to $16-17k from $13k retail, based on historical Stern LE secondary market performance
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction based on Metallica Remastered ($13k→$18k) and Jaws LE ($13k→$18k) as comps; prediction stated as personal forecast
Pokémon has not experienced cultural calamity or franchise degradation unlike Star Wars, which Disney has 'messed up' through oversaturation
medium confidence · Kaneda's subjective opinion on IP health; comparison stated as reasoning for Pokémon's durability vs Star Wars collapse
George Gomez designed Pokémon with mass-appeal layout prioritizing simple ball flow (A→B ramp mechanics) over complex layout innovation
medium confidence · Kaneda analyzing the leaked Premium Edition layout and attributing design philosophy to Gomez; inference from visual leak
King Kong has significant ball-out-of-sight issues ('balls constantly being out of sight'); Harry Potter also has this problem
medium confidence · Kaneda's gameplay criticism of existing released games; not directly about Pokémon but used as design philosophy contrast

Notable Quotes

“This is the only Pokémon pinball in history. Once these people find out that if you want the nicest version of the pinball game, there are only 750 total ever for the world. Do you understand?”
Kaneda @ ~4:30 — Core thesis: scarcity of LE units combined with IP ubiquity drives inevitable FOMO and secondary market premium
“It's a toy. It was never meant to be a direct for 40 to 60 curmudgeonly alcoholic men who are very bored and have found a second life on the Internet with their pin personality.”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Philosophical critique of pinball community over-analysis; frames Pokémon as returning pinball to mass-market fun
“I think Pokémon is A, going to sell out instantly. B is not going to go down in value. And C will never really go down in value. It is just that kind of IP.”
Kaneda @ ~11:30 — Explicit three-part prediction on value trajectory; contrasts with Venom, Foo Fighters, John Wick precedents
“As someone who bought a Gucci Xbox for $10,000 and sold it on StockX for $20,000 the next week, I'm here to tell you right now, this game with only 750 LEs, because you know the rich people want the nicest version this game has the potential to hit a new high.”
Kaneda @ ~20:00 — Personal credential-building for secondary market prediction; appeals to luxury collectibles logic
“It makes no sense. But it goes to show you how anxious Stern is. They want to inject some value into these LEs.”
Kaneda @ ~24:30 — Interpretation of Stern's 750-unit decision as intentional value preservation strategy after Venom/John Wick saturation
“If I were to guess, a $13,000 Pokémon LE, if you got your hands on one, I think you're going to see them go for like 16 or 17. I mean it.”
Kaneda @ ~27:00 — Specific secondary market price prediction; frames as informed opinion based on IP analysis
“Day one, insta-sellout. It's going to be impossible for people to get.”
Kaneda @ ~26:00 — Bold prediction on launch day availability; stakes entire argument on immediate exhaustion

Entities

Kanedaperson George GomezpersonPokémon PinballgameStern PinballcompanyBetsynperson Zombie Yetiperson Metallica Remasteredgame

Signals

~
sentiment_shift: Mixed pinball community reaction to Pokémon Pinball: enthusiasm among casual/cross-demographic buyers; skepticism/dismissal from core 'curmudgeonly' competitive players critical of simple design
high · Kaneda reads thread: 'In between all those curmudgeons complaining left and right are people saying I can't wait to get one...I'm looking for an LE...this is my dream theme...my kids love this property'
?
competitive_signal: Pokémon Pinball positioned as breakout mass-appeal title that will drive new demographics into pinball hobby, unlike previous major IP releases (Star Wars, King Kong, Godzilla) that appealed primarily to existing collector base
medium · Kaneda: 'I think this is going to be really, really interesting what happens when this game launches. I think we're going to get a lot of crybabies...Meanwhile, they're going to be selling like hotcakes'
?
design_philosophy: Pokémon Pinball designed for mass-market appeal and accessibility (simple A→B ball flow, center Meowth bash toy, no complex layout innovation) rather than depth-focused competitive play
medium · Kaneda analyzes leaked layout: 'come around the ramp, come back to your flipper. You get to bash the Meowth balloon right up the middle. It's going to rise up and then open the pathway.' Contrasts with King Kong's complex layout issues
$
market_signal: Narrative emerging that Pokémon Pinball will be fastest-selling Stern LE ever due to unprecedented crossover appeal beyond pinball enthusiast demographic; positioned as cultural moment not just product release
high · Episode title: 'Pokemon Will Be The Fastest Selling Stern LE Ever...Good Luck Finding One'; Kaneda frames as one-in-a-generation IP opportunity similar to luxury collectibles (Gucci Xbox reference)

Topics

IP licensing and franchise strengthprimarySecondary market pricing and scarcity-driven FOMOprimaryStern LE production numbers and intentional value preservationprimaryDistributor inventory and retail availabilityprimaryPlayfield design philosophy: complexity vs mass appealsecondaryPokémon cultural reach and crossover demographicsprimaryPinball community gatekeeping and 'curmudgeonly' player attitudessecondaryHistorical Stern LE value trajectories and compssecondary

Sentiment

positive(0.82)— Kaneda is enthusiastically bullish on Pokémon Pinball's commercial success, scarcity value, and appeal beyond traditional pinball demographics. Criticism is reserved for the pinball community's 'curmudgeonly' over-analysis and for past Stern decisions (1,000-unit runs for Venom/John Wick). Tone is confident and prescriptive. No major negative sentiment toward Stern, George Gomez, or the game design itself—criticism focuses on secondary market comparisons and community gatekeeping.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.044

Jigglypuff! Jigglypuff! Jigglypuff! Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. And look, Pokemon is leaked. And it's Betsyn who did the leak. Thank you so much for spoiling all of Stern's hard work with another crappy image of an over-the-shoulder photo photo of a computer screen with a PowerPoint slide. Like this is how we see the premium edition of Pokemon for the first time. And so looking at it, obviously it's a fan layout. Obviously there's a big bash toy up the middle. Meowth. How many of you out there know Meowth or Team Rocket? But here's my thing. I'm in the thread and I'm reading between the lines. And what's happening is this. In between all the curmudgeons who are complaining left and right, And there's a lot of them complaining left and right. In between all those curmudgeons are people saying, I can't wait to get one. People saying, I'm looking for an LE. People saying, this is my dream theme. People saying, my kids love this property. People saying, I grew up with Pokemon. And all of a sudden, it should be so apparent to everybody out there that there is a reason why this damn property just had a Super Bowl commercial. There's a reason why this is the biggest IP in the entire world. It's because a lot of people love Pokemon. A lot. And if you tell me that you have a $151 billion franchise and most of the Pokemon world that loves Pokemon who could warm up to a pinball Pokemon experience. This is the only Pokemon pinball in history. Once these people find out that if you want the nicest version of the pinball game, there are only 750 total ever for the world. Do you understand? When I see people saying this thing is going to be $8,000 or $9,000 in six months, this is not Venom. This is not Star Wars. This is not John Wick. This is Pokemon. And I know there's a lot of speculation about whether or not it would cross over to the pinball buying demographic, but I can tell you already, much like Beetlejuice, I don't think anybody has a single Pokemon LE available. I think if you call around today, it's gone. And you could read it on the thread. It's like really easy to pinpoint when FOMO starts. It snowballs. It starts just a little bit, right? First, like a few weeks ago, we heard Mad Pinball was sold out of his Pokemon allotment. And everyone's like, well, they're still going to be available everywhere. Stern Pinball, I don't even think, is doing a countdown to sell the game directly. I don't think they have enough. And you call over to Automated? Gone. You call over to Melissa? Gone. You call over to Zach? Gone. Call over everywhere? Gone. It goes to show. This is such a big property that's going to get people really excited. It's going to bring a lot of people, I think, into the fun of pinball. And I showed this to my son. And I just want to say this. I think a lot of us have forgotten what it is that this is. It's a toy. It was never meant to be a direct for 40 to 60 curmudgeonly alcoholic men who are very bored and have found a second life on the Internet with their pin personality that is not what pinball is meant to do it meant to be played enjoyed put a smile on your face and don overthink it I know we have to overthink it often because games are so expensive. And yeah, I don't want to see any of you lose money. And I've been helping most of you navigate the modern pinball market. I've been helping most of you save money. And I'm here to tell you right now with 100% certainty that I think Pokemon is A, going to sell out instantly. B is not going to go down in value. And C will never really go down in value. It is just that kind of IP. It comes around once in a blue moon. It is the biggest IP in the world. So don't think that this is going to go the same way as Venom, the same way as Foo Fighters, the same way as John Wick, the same way as Star Wars. It's just not. And the other thing about the Pokemon IP is this. It's never really gone through any sort of calamity. Star Wars fans are so divided now. I think to the point where like Disney messed up all of the Star Wars IP. It's like you like some of the old stuff, you hate the new stuff, some of it you're indifferent about, but they've overdone it. Pokemon's not really kind of like that. It's kind of been everywhere. It's got the card game, it's got the animated series, but they haven't like overdone it and they haven't destroyed what people love about Pokemon. And I think we're going to see that come out in full force when this game gets unveiled to the larger world. And that's the other thing is right now, I mean, right now, February 10th, only the diehard pinball fanatics are truly aware of this game and only you guys. And this is why for those of you who are sleeping on getting an LE, what's wrong with you? Because again, you got like insider info, like you got insider trading. You knew, and the larger Pokemon world did not know, you knew beforehand that there was going to be a Pokemon pinball machine and you should have done this smart thing. You should have put your name on a list. If you actually think, and I mean this, you actually think like a year from now, Winchester's Mystery House is going to have more demand than getting your hands on the nicest version of Pokemon pinball ever. Okay, you could think that, and you might be true, you might be true. You know, sometimes we have a tendency in this hobby to, I don't know, like over-exaggerate the crossover appeal of a theme into people getting into the pinball machine, right, and by that I mean, if Pokemon is this big, we just assume that everyone who's into Pokemon is gonna wanna spend six to $13,000 on a pinball machine, and we know that's not the case. We know that the entry-level price for an IP of this nature is not that high, but I'm here to tell you right now, I think you're going to see a crazy response to this game. I think the layout, you know, the fan layout that some of you are saying is not that innovative, not that creative, I don't think it matters. You've got to remember, 99% of people that walk up to a pinball machine, they simply want to play the game and have fun. They don't need to have, like, crazy ball paths like King Kong, where you're constantly losing the ball. something nobody wants to talk about. Go play King Kong, premium NLE. Balls constantly being out of sight. There's a lot of out of sight ball in Harry Potter even. You know what I'm saying? These people want to see the ball go from A to B, come around the ramp, come back to your flipper. You get to bash the Meowth balloon right up the middle. It's going to rise up and then open the pathway for a shot up the middle. That's going to be really easy for everyone to enjoy and jump on and have fun. And so, yeah, I think that George definitely made a game that is going to be mass appeal because the theme itself is mass appeal And you know as I was saying earlier I introduced Killian to Pokemon and we started watching the cartoons this weekend and he like hooked instantly He loves the theme song. He's in the back of the Kia Carnival. You know, Daddy put on the Pokemon song. He wants to watch the episode that has the Charizard in it because he's got the Charizard stuffed animal for the last year and he's going bonkers. He made an adorable video last night that he sent to George Gomez saying, I want a Pokemon pinball machine, okay? And so look, as a dad that has resources to buy any pinball machine coming out this year, if I buy my boy Pokemon pinball, I'm going to be his hero. If I bought him King Kong, he wouldn't care. If I bought him Godzilla, he wouldn't care. If I bought him John Wick, he wouldn't care. If I bought him Star Wars, he wouldn't even care. but he's into Pokemon. And that's what I'm saying is like for a lot of us out there, there's going to be a lot of people that are just buying this machine, maybe because their kids love it. They're going to be buying this machine because they love it. I think people's love affair with Pokemon is like really, really strong and indelible. It goes much deeper than stuff like, I don't know, Dungeons and Dragons. When was the last time you saw Dungeons and Dragons other than in Stranger Things, but actually met anybody that's currently playing Dungeons and Dragons, collecting D&D stuff. It's just not there. And so yeah, Pokemon Pinball. I can't wait to see what happens when this game is unveiled. I can't wait to see what happens when all the people that have been rooting for Stern to fail have to eat crow on this game. And I mean it. There's a reason why I think this game is going to sell. It's not because I'm just trying to scout machines to you guys, because I'll tell you this right now, seeing the way Killian reacted to this game, I think this one's going in the house. I think Guns N' Roses is going down the stairs and Pokemon is going up the stairs. I've got a lot of time before my Beetlejuice is ready, so why not? And again, they're going to make these games pretty quickly. The pros are going to be the first ones on the line, and then we're going to get the LE in like a month or two, which is nice. You know, I'm glad they're going to iron out the kinks before they make the LEs, but it's going to be really, really interesting what happens when this game launches. I think we're going to get a lot of crybabies that are going to moan and groan that this game is too basic. It's too this. It's too that. Meanwhile, they're going to be selling like hotcakes. Meanwhile, a lot of people are going to be having fun on the game. And as I look at it, it's kind of hard to think that this game is not going to be just a lot of fun. So my prediction is this. Day one, insta-sellout. It's going to be impossible for people to get. Remember, only 750 going to a global pinball distribution network, only 750 on the biggest IP in the world. And you guys think the LD is going to tank in value like everything else? You're out of your minds. This thing will hold and go up. You've got celebrities. I mean, look at that Super Bowl commercial. All of those celebrities that love Pokemon, that want to put something in their home, they're not going to be aware of this game until it's sold out. I will tell you this right now. As someone who bought a Gucci Xbox for $10,000 and sold it on StockX for $20,000 the next week, I'm here to tell you right now, this game with only 750 LEs, because you know the rich people want the nicest version this game has the potential to hit a new high And I think if we look at the Stern releases let just take them into account right now The most money any Stern LE has ever gone up in value was Metallica Remastered, went from $13,000 to $18,000. I'm not talking the older Sterns. I'm talking about the $13,000 games. That game has now come back down to being worth around 14, 13, 5, 14. We then had Jaws LE. Now Jaws LE went all the way up to around $18,000. It's now since slid back down to 14, 15, if even that. I think I'm seeing Jaws LEs now sell for below 13 because of the 50th anniversary. I am curious if Pokemon is going to have a 30th anniversary LE, or if they're going to release that later on in the year and maybe add something special to it. You know, Stern has a track record of doing that and screwing over the LE buyers. But as of today, February 10th, Canada is here to tell you that not only will this be one of the fastest selling Stern LEs ever, it is crazy that they're only doing 750. They made a thousand Venoms, a thousand John Wicks, and they pumped the brakes on Pokemon. Makes no sense. But it goes to show you how anxious Stern is. They want to inject some value into these LEs. I'm not even sure what 750 signifies in the Pokemon world, but that's not a lot for something this big. I think they're reading into the curmudgeon-y audience a little too much. I think this game is gonna insta-sell out. And I think for those of you out there, if you want one, I think it's gonna be hard to get one. If you have one, I think you're gonna be able to sell it for thousands more than you paid for it. I think that's gonna be the market. If I were to guess, a $13,000 Pokemon Elite, if you got your hands on one, I think you're going to see them go for like 16 or 17. I mean it. People are going to want one. People are going to really, really want one. And I think people are going to set the prices pretty decently high. Because again, only 750 of the nicest version of the game. Now, there's a lot I don't know. I haven't seen the art package. I'm not loving the art package on the premium. I haven't seen what the trim is. I haven't seen any of the other stuff that's going to be on the LE. So there's a lot we don't know. Historically, Stern has not made these LEs like super spectacular. but if this LE has like the bright yellow armor and you know a really colorful art package I don't know you know it has to screen Pokemon it has to be colorful you know with Stern's other games we've been complaining they're overly colorful but this is the IP where you want to dial up the color I also like the fact that it's using Pokemon artist it's not another zombie Eddie game no offense to use zombie eddie i want them to use art from that universe and not a reimagined different stylized version of pokemon look i know there's going to be a lot of people listening to this right now thinking i'm now Win Schilling for stern i'm not i'm simply calling this as i see it this game is going to move like hot cakes it's going to shock some of you and i think they're going to sell a ton of these games let me know how you feel canada pinball at gmail.com i'll read some of your responses on my next show. I can't wait to see it. Going to be a great week. Kaneda out. Every single time you met a new Pokemon, I felt like you met a new part of yourself. He likes to sleep. Really? Just like me. He has a lot of ways to overcome his opponents. He has a lot of ways to overcome his opponents. His agility, his speed. She uses her voice to protect herself. She's homie, you know? Totally. That's why I love it. My favorite is Eevee. My favorite is Siga. Arcanine. Gengar. Jigglypuff. Rockstrike. Zidak. So, what's your favorite?