claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.032
Multimorphic and American Pinball production updates; debate on announcing games amid backlogs.
Multimorphic's estimated lead time on new orders is 12-13 months, about the same as previous updates (roughly one year out)
high confidence · Dennis citing Multimorphic's official update; acknowledged as public information from the company
Multimorphic will release two game kits in 2023 (first-party only, not counting third-party projects)
high confidence · Dennis referencing Multimorphic's official update in show notes
Spooky Pinball offers lead times as far out as 18 months from order date
medium confidence · Dennis making statement during discussion; characterized as his observation but not directly verified in this episode
American Pinball initially promised both classic and deluxe versions of Legends of Valhalla, with deluxe shown at Expo last year
high confidence · Dennis and Tony both attended Expo and played deluxe version; referenced in Pinball News article linked in show notes
Stern Pinball had 5,000 games backlogs by their own admission and skipped a Cornerstone release due to backlog
medium confidence · Dennis citing previous Stern admissions in interviews; framed as acknowledged but not directly sourced in this episode
“I'm a little unclear on exactly how many people are they honestly onboarding and getting... they're not seeming to make a dent in the time estimate.”
Tony @ ~mid-episode — Expresses skepticism about Multimorphic's hiring effectiveness despite claims of ramping up production
“If you're telling people you have to wait 18 months, you just shouldn't be selling it. You're selling too many games for what you're capable to do.”
Dennis @ ~late episode — Firm statement of philosophy: long lead times indicate over-commitment and unsustainable sales practices
“This is what happens when Stern stalls out their reveal in the sloppiest thing we've ever seen in the history of the hobby.”
Tony @ ~American Pinball section — Strong criticism of Stern's Star Wars reveal strategy; contextualizes American Pinball's non-announcement as filling a void left by Stern's absence
“Stern's sloppiest reveal ever. But by a lot.”
Dennis @ ~American Pinball section — Affirmation that Star Wars reveal was unusually poorly executed by Stern standards
“I do not agree with the idea of releasing a new game if you are still trying to catch up on orders of the previous game because all it seems to me is to add to backlog.”
Dennis @ ~Multimorphic discussion — Core principle: manufacturers should not announce/release new games while fulfilling existing orders
business_signal: Spooky Pinball's 18-month lead times represent unsustainable sales volume relative to production capacity
medium · Dennis: 'If you're telling people you have to wait 18 months, you just shouldn't be selling it. You're selling too many games for what you're capable to do.'
business_signal: Multimorphic announcing two new game kits for 2023 while still 12-13 months behind on existing orders, potentially exacerbating backlog
high · Dennis: 'I personally do not agree with the idea of releasing a new game if you are still trying to catch up on orders of the previous game because all it seems to me is to add to backlog.'
sentiment_shift: Galactic Tank Force generating hype despite being non-licensed and amid broader skepticism; community tendency to hype any announced pinball game
medium · Tony: 'This is pinball. You can leak out or announce anything is coming, and you're going to find people who are absolutely in love with it.'
design_philosophy: Dennis strongly opposed to announcing new games while manufacturer is behind on existing orders; views it as poor business practice that exacerbates backlog
high · Dennis: 'I, as a pinball enthusiast, do not understand why you would reveal the game if you are not yet in a place where you could reasonably, in a reasonable amount of time, get it into the hands of people.'
design_philosophy: Industry norm of announcing new games regardless of existing backlog, driven by licensing agreements and competitive pressure rather than production capacity
groq_whisper · $0.293
medium · Dennis notes Stern has 'license arrangements that are forcing their hand' and references skipping Cornerstone due to backlog as partial response
event_signal: Film 'Pinball, the man who saved the game' about Roger Sharp and NYC pinball ban undergoing theatrical/live event distribution before broader streaming release
high · Dennis: 'It was a live event sort of thing. It was only available in the U S too. And then if you didn't do it at the certain time, it went away... they're kind of doing the promotional circuit thing right now.'
market_signal: American Pinball announcing classic version of Legends of Valhalla while deluxe version is still in production; confusing multi-tier approach
high · Dennis: 'American Pinball has announced a new classic version of Legends of Valhalla. Here's why it gets confusing.'
product_strategy: Multimorphic maintaining consistent 12-13 month lead times despite claimed hiring ramp-up and production increases; no meaningful reduction since previous updates
high · Dennis: 'I am kind of surprised that their lead time hasn't really changed any. With how much they've been hiring from reports and from what we've seen, I would have thought they might have been able to start making up time a little bit.'
product_concern: American Pinball's Legends of Valhalla deluxe version experiencing slow, prolonged production despite showing at Expo a year ago; deluxe units still not fully sold out
high · Dennis: 'They've been slowly turning out these deluxe games since then... They're not all sold yet... It's just been slow.'
product_strategy: Multimorphic planning multiple game kit releases contingent on parallel production division; suggests development and production are separated workflows
medium · Tony discusses assumption that 'design section' and 'production section' operate separately, allowing new games to be designed in parallel with fulfilling orders