Episode 1190: "Trade You My Pokemon For Your Winchester For Your Beetlejuice!"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·20m 4s·analyzed·Feb 20, 2026

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.035

TL;DR

Pokemon Pinball LE speculation creates unprecedented secondary market; Kaneda analyzes pricing dynamics and 2025 affordability crisis.

Summary

Kaneda analyzes the unprecedented secondary market frenzy around Pokemon Pinball LE following its announcement, comparing speculative trading behavior to Pokemon cards and discussing price stability of recent Stern LEs. He provides market valuations for hot games (Pokemon LE $20-24K, Winchester $20K, Beetlejuice $13.2K), cautions collectors about FOMO-driven purchases, and warns about affordability of the 2025 game glut ($41K for three LE games). He also announces plans to distribute five Beetlejuice games at MSRP via random drawing for club members.

Key Claims

Pokemon LE currently trading at $20,000-$24,000 on secondary market, up to $25,000 in some cases
high confidence · Kaneda states 'both games are somewhere between $18,000 and $25,000' and 'more likely you're looking at $20,000 to $24,000 is where these games are moving' based on 13 years of marketplace observation
Metallica Remastered LE ($13K MSRP) has held value better than other recent Stern LEs, currently $16,900 on Pinside with only one available
high confidence · Kaneda: 'There's only one available on the marketplace. It is $16,900 firm' and notes it peaked at $18-19K
Recent Stern LEs have depreciated significantly: Foo Fighters -$4-5K, James Bond -$4-5K, Venom -$6K, John Wick -$5K, D&D -$3-4K, King Kong -$4K+
high confidence · Kaneda explicitly lists depreciation amounts for each game
George Gomez promised no more special editions of Pokemon will be made, only Pro/Premium/LE
high confidence · Kaneda: 'George Gomez is that they won't be making any more special editions of this game. He's on record for saying that a lot'
Approximately 50 Pokemon LE speculators are seeking buyers who don't actually want the theme
medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I would say about fifty of you out there own a Pokémon LE. You don't like Pokémon. You just were smart' as speculators
Beetlejuice spot values have dropped from $10K asking prices to $3,200-$4,000 as hype shifted to Pokemon
high confidence · Kaneda: 'most of them want around $4,000 for the spot' and 'The last one that sold their spot, it was $3,200'
Pokemon LE owners can expect 6-week delivery timeline from Stern vs 6-12 month waits for Spooky/specialty makers
high confidence · Kaneda: 'everyone who has a Pokémon Elite...you're going to get your games in six weeks, like everyone who has a Pokémon Elite'
Three premium 2025 games (Pokemon LE, Sonic LE, Transformers LE) would cost approximately $41,000 total
high confidence · Kaneda: 'Pokemon, a Sonic, and a Transformers...that's $26,000, $36,000, $41,000 for three pinball machines'

Notable Quotes

“It's like we're trading pinball machines like they're Pokémon cards. Who would have thought we'd have all this wheeling and dealing?”
Kaneda @ ~0:30 — Encapsulates the unprecedented secondary market frenzy and FOMO-driven trading behavior
“We've never seen a Stern LE at $13,000 have this level of demand...this is unprecedented territory”
Kaneda @ ~2:30 — Acknowledges Pokemon LE as breaking historical price/demand patterns for Stern games
“In just six weeks, all the Pokémon LEs will be made...you might get the highest price right now”
Kaneda @ ~8:30 — Critical prediction about supply inflection point affecting secondary market pricing
“I don't know the Pokémon collectors' appetite to spend $20,000 or more on a pinball machine. This is the variable that nobody knows what's going to happen.”
Kaneda @ ~9:45 — Identifies key unknown: whether Pokemon IP collectors (vs pinball collectors) will sustain high prices
“Welcome to the new crazy world of pinball. Most of our salaries have not doubled...we still remember a time when you could get three Stern LEs for like $20,000”
Kaneda @ ~14:00 — Commentary on unsustainable pricing trends and generational affordability crisis in hobby
“Do you want to enjoy the pinball machine you have, or do you want to make some money? And will that money be enough to let it go?”
Kaneda @ ~6:00 — Core philosophical tension between speculation and fandom in current market
“My advice to everybody out there is this. If you got any of these games, Beetlejuice, Winchester, Pokémon LE, congratulations. You have something that is going to hold value nicely.”
Kaneda @ ~5:45 — Direct market guidance positioning these three as value-stable acquisitions
“It's not ruining the hobby. Like ninety-five percent of people who wanted a Pokémon Elite are going to get it at MSRP...Just because there's thirty people that might flip them, how does that ruin the hobby?”

Entities

Kanedaperson Pokemon Pinballgame Winchester PinballgameBeetlejuice PinballgameStern PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyGeorge Gomezperson Robin

Signals

?
business_signal: Stern manufacturing advantage: 6-week Pokemon LE delivery vs 6-12 month Beetlejuice waits, creating capacity/supply-chain differentiation for LE speculation viability
high · Kaneda contrasts 'everyone who has a Pokémon Elite...you're going to get your games in six weeks' vs Spooky's longer timelines
?
event_signal: Kaneda planning random drawing distribution of five Beetlejuice MSRP allocations to club members via hat pull; explicit rejection of auction markup model used by Project Pinball
high · Kaneda: 'five Beetlejuice games available for MSRP...I'm going to put all the names in a hat...not going to auction them off like Project Pinball and make like $13,000'
?
community_signal: Pinside moderator Robin attempting to restrict secondary market trading/flipping of LE spots; Kaneda defends speculation as minority activity (30 flippers vs 750 units)
medium · Kaneda: 'I know this irks Robin over at Pinside. He's trying to stop your ability to sort of capitalize' and 'It's not ruining the hobby. Like ninety-five percent of people...are going to get it at MSRP'
$
market_signal: Pokemon IP crossover demand creating unknown variable: pinball collector behavior vs Pokemon collector behavior at $20K+ price points; outcome will determine long-term LE valuation
medium · Kaneda: 'I don't know the Pokémon collectors' appetite to spend $20,000 or more on a pinball machine. This is the variable that nobody knows what's going to happen'
$
market_signal: Winchester Pinball ($20K secondary value) and Pokemon LE ($20-25K) now trading at parity despite different manufacturers, suggesting convergence on collector perceived value

Topics

Secondary market pricing dynamics and speculationprimaryPokemon Pinball demand frenzy and FOMO-driven tradingprimaryRecent Stern LE value depreciation patternsprimary2025 game pricing affordability crisisprimaryComparison of Pokemon/Winchester/Beetlejuice market valuesprimaryCollector vs speculator motivations and ethicssecondaryUnknown variable: Pokemon collector vs pinball collector demandsecondaryStern manufacturing timelines vs boutique manufacturerssecondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.55)— Kaneda is enthusiastic about Pokemon Pinball's quality and market dynamics, defending speculation as healthy hobby activity. However, he expresses concern about affordability crisis (3 games = $41K), worry about Pokemon LE price sustainability post-supply, and sympathy for Beetlejuice owners losing hype. Overall tone is analytical-optimistic with cautionary undertones about long-term hobby sustainability.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.060

It's been fun, but now I've got to go. Life is way too short to take it slow. But before I go and hit the road, I gotta know, when can we do this again? Sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a, sit-a! Thank the pinball gods! It's Friday, everybody! One week ago, we got to see Pokemon Pinball, And in just a week, the Pokemon frenzy has swept over the entire pinball world. I'm seeing some fun stuff. If you're not having fun in the hobby this week, something's wrong. Wake up. There's a lot of excitement. There's a lot of people that are getting impatient. We're going to talk about this. I'm seeing this fun stuff. It's like, I'll trade you my Pokemon for your Winchester, for your Beetlejuice. I'll trade you my Beetlejuice spot for your Pokemon LE. And we're going to talk about all this shuffling. It's like we're trading pinball machines like they're Pokemon cards. Who would have thought we'd have all this wheeling and dealing? We'd have Robin still not letting people list some Pokemon at least spots for sale. Well, one just popped up. 32,000 OBO. And then the guy says he's got two of them for sale. Well, there goes that sale at 32K, brother. You don't want to let people know you got two. If you're trying to sell something, you got to do the oldest trick in the book. It's what the dealers have been doing for years. You pick up the phone and you tell them, I've got one more Walking Dead Remastered LE left. Do you want it? Someone buys it. Phone rings again. I got one more Walking Dead Remastered LE. You know what I'm saying? It's like, you got to create some FOMO. And you know, look, this is unprecedented territory. I was thinking about this this morning. What do you want to talk about, Kaneda? These $5 a month patrons, are you going to give them their money's worth? They're spending $20,000 on games and you got to deliver some value for five bucks. So few people are raising their roof and upping their subscription, even though I'm hitting hard, baby, with the positive energy. But I was just thinking about where we are. You know, we now are at a point where we're seeing some brand new unprecedented stuff. We've never seen a Stern LE at $13,000 have this level of demand. We saw some pretty good demand on Metallica Remastered. There's only one of those for sale right now on Pinside. It was 13 new. I think at the height, Metallica Remastered was going up to like 18, 19. There's only one available on the marketplace. it is $16,900 firm baby firm nothing's firm in this hobby not even the ding-dongs inside the cargo shorts but you know it's like when you say firm it's actually better to say that than OBO because I think what that means is all right all right like I know that I'm not going to swoop in here and offer you like $2,000 less but you can get something off on every game for sale if someone really wants to make a deal, they will make it. So there's only one Metallica, 16-9. So that's held pretty nicely. Jaws LEs were holding nicely until the 50th anniversary came out. I'm trying to think if there's any other Stern LEs that were 13 grand that have actually held. Everything else has lost a lot of money, right? Foo Fighters, like four grand, five grand. James Bond, four, five grand. Venom like six grand. John Wick like five grand. What else was there? D&D hasn't held. That's lost around like three to four thousand dollars. You don't really hear about D&D very much at all. King Kong has lost another four thousand dollars or more. Loss, loss, loss, loss, loss. And then in swings Pikachu and this 750 only LE game with a promise by George Gomez is that they won't be making any more special editions of this game. He's on record for saying that a lot. So I highly doubt they're going to make another edition. The thing is this. I'm seeing people get impatient. I'm seeing Beetlejuice owners. It's like we're forgetting how much awesomeness is in Beetlejuice. But this is what this hobby's always been about. It's like the hype train leaves the station and you're on it, baby, right? When you got a Beetlejuice spot, you felt like you were top of the world and everyone in the hobby was looking at you. If you were a collector, you were looking at the Beetlejuice guys with a little bit of envy. They're lucky they got their Beetlejuice for $10,000. They're all gone. It not fair I thought I was on a list My dealer didn hook me up And you know everyone who had one acted like they won the championship even though most of you are not going to get your game for like 6 to 10 to 12 months You know, this isn't Stern. You're not going to get your games in 6 weeks, like everyone who has a Pokemon Elite. So that hype train left the station. And then all of a sudden, there was a Winchester hype train. And then Pokemon hits, and everyone's on that hype train. And all of a sudden, it's like nobody really cares as much anymore that you have a Beetlejuice spot. Now, I've had about four people reach out to me personally on my Canadian pinball at gmail.com. They've reached out and they want help selling a Beetlejuice spot. And most of them want around $4,000 for the spot. I go on to Pinside. The last one that sold their spot, it was $3,200 for the spot. And then there's another one I think for sale for $4,000 over MSRP. This is the thing now, right? It's like, what is a Beetlejuice spot worth to you? My advice to everybody out there is this. If you got any of these games, Beetlejuice, Winchester, Pokemon LE, congratulations. You have something that is going to hold value nicely. But you also have, and I mean this when I say this, you have a great pinball machine in your possession. You might not physically have it yet, but you own it. And so you have to ask yourself a very simple question. Do you want to enjoy the pinball machine you have, or do you want to make some money? And will that money be enough to let it go? And do you need the money? Now, I know some of you out there, you have a lot of money and making money is just fun. And making money is fun. Making money, especially for nothing, is the most fun imaginable. You could sell a Winchester right now and almost make $10,000. I have a friend, by the way, and I mean this. His name is Chris. It's not me. I have a friend. He is selling a Winchester spot. He will take 20. I see people like our other friend, Chris L., who thinks it's worth like 25 to 30. It's not. 20 grand on the table you got yourself a Winchester okay so if you're interested just let me know so I just saw someone offering a Pokemon LE for a Winchester now I think that is a fair trade I think the market value on both games is right around there I will say this in a world in which there's no Winchesters for sale anywhere. There's only one Pokemon at 32. I think both Pokemon LE and Winchester right now, I don't mean like a year from now or six months from now, but right now, both games, in my honest opinion, observing this marketplace for 13 years, both games are somewhere between 18 and 25,000. Now, if I narrowed that down, I would say more likely you're looking at $20,000 to $24,000 is where these games are moving. It's the amount of money that the owners are willing to take to let it go. And so if you want to Winchester, 20K gets you on. I'm not getting any kickback. It's funny. He said to me, he's like, Chris, if you charge $21,000, I'll give you $1,000. So, okay, hey, there you go. If you want to spend $21,000 on it, I will get a grand. but you could also give me nothing and get the game for $20,000. So I think that's a fair trade. Then I saw Chris L, friend of the show, buddy. He wants to trade Beetlejuice for Pokemon LE. That's a terrible trade. If you think about it right now, Beetlejuice, the MSRP was $9,999. You can buy someone's spot for $3,200. So you're looking at $13,200 for a Beetlejuice right now. Pokemon, you can't even get one. And if you do see one sell, I've seen reports and I've seen it with my own eyes, actual transactions. People are getting around $25,000 for Pokemon LE right now. Don't hate the messenger. That's what's happening. But here's also what will happen. In just six weeks, all the Pokemon LEs will be made. And I know there are plenty of men out there, and I've been speaking to some of you who have been asking me to find you a buyer for Pokemon. There are a decent amount. And I mean, I would say about 50 of you out there own a Pokemon LE, you don't like Pokemon. You just were smart. You've been listening to me. You've been heeding my advice. You go in on Stern and you speculate and you speculate it right on this game But you want to move it You not going to want to catch them all You not into the theme And you know if you can make a good buck you going to want to make a good buck But here what going to happen right now You might get the highest I was going back and forth on this. I don't know because the big variable I don't know is I only really know the behavior of the pinball collectors. OK, so, you know, once all 750 are made and 50 dudes want to sell them, you know, you're going to start to see the prices go down because yeah, right now, if you say 25,000, I think you get it. But if three pop up for sale for 25, then the price is going to go down. But what I don't know is this. I don't know the Pokemon collectors appetite to spend 20,000 or more on a pinball machine. This is the variable that nobody knows what's going to happen. You know, people will point at the $16 million card and, you know, the Pokemon illustrator cards that are worth hundreds of thousands, if not millions. But the reason people collect the cards is that's what Pokemon collectors collect. You know, they don't collect pinball machines. They don't buy every single collaboration that happens in the Pokemon world. And this is by far one of the most expensive Pokemon collaborations ever. They've done something with Tiffany & Co. They made a $30,000 necklace. But this is expensive. This is not your run-of-the-mill thing that Pokemon collectors gravitate towards. And so a lot of them are younger. They don't really have like $13,000, not even $13,000, right? They now need like $20,000. And as all of these Pokemon fanatics sort of wake up to the reality that this pin exists, I also don't know if they're just going to be satisfied with the premium or the pro. So imagine if you're a Pokemon collector and you just want the pin. You think it's cool. You're not really into pinball. And you know, the LE is really nice, but someone says, well, they're all sold out and they're 20 grand. And then you're like, well, this one's 8,500 or 9,500. This one's 6,500. Which one do you think they're going to buy? Because they're not pinball fanatics. They're Pokemon fanatics. But again, uncharted territory. Nobody knows. Nobody knows. Nobody could have predicted the overwhelming demand that hit this game. I think a lot of us, me included, thought it would be a little bit softer. I didn't think there'd be as much crossover demand as there is. And I think a lot of people just got burned with all these previous Sternellese that, you know, you kind of were hesitant. And rightfully so. But it is Pokemon. So it's going to be really fun watching all this wheeling and dealing as we head into March. And March is like next week. And so we're going to see a ton of Pokemon machines flying out of Stern Pinball. And once there's more supply, common sense would indicate that demand will go down. Unless, here's the other variable, unless people unbox this game and it is amazing. it is super fun I know it's not loaded but it could be loaded with fun and it could be one of those games that comes around once in a blue moon that makes everybody feel good when you're playing it and if it does that then the price could go higher and higher and higher because it might just be a game that everybody wants to own and so the le's could keep going up and up and up because owners who have it will not let it go. And the LE does look really, really nice. So if you have an LE, congratulations. I think it's going to be a game you're going to want to own. I think money is transient. It comes and goes. For those of you out there who have any money in crypto, you've lost more in the last like month than probably all of your pinball machines combined, if you have like a decent amount in it. And so, yeah, like, oh, cool. I made 10 grand on Pokemon and I lost like 80 grand on Ethereum. So congratulations on your Pokemon win. I would also encourage all of you with your Beetlejuice spots to just be patient, right? I mean, this game is just coming out. It is a masterpiece. It is gorgeous. And because there's a lot of hype for Pokemon, doesn't make Beetlejuice any less of a game. As I've said, the biggest issue this year is going to be we've never had a year with so many great games. We're so used to so many games coming out that were such an easy no. And I don't know if our addictive personalities, it's not going to be healthy. We not used to being served up so many games We are going to want to say yes to There going to be a gluttony of amazing pins And so we going to see Transformers G1 You're going to want it. We're going to see Sonic the Hedgehog. You're going to want it. So just right there, if you bought a Pokemon, a Sonic and a Transformers, let's see, that's $26,000, $36,000, $41,000 for three pinball machines. Now, I don't make millions a year, but I will tell you this. I can't afford, with everything going on in my life, in a six-month period, to spend $41,000, which I could invest. I could invest in the S&P 500, in my children's futures, $41,000 for three pinball machines, the top trim of each game, $41,000. A lot of us still remember a time when you could get three Stern LEs and your total bill would be like $20,000. So welcome to the new crazy world of pinball. Most of our salaries have not doubled. Most of us don't want to spend 41,000. When you say it like that, Kaneda, it hurts. But here's the scary part. Pokemon LE, if you own a Pokemon LE, a Winchester, just right there alone, you now are in possession of two games that will net you $40,000. You will have made almost $20,000 in profit on simply putting your name on a list. And I know this irks Robin over at Pinside. He's trying to stop your ability to sort of capitalize on that good decision-making you did. I know some people think it's scummy. They think it's ruining the hobby? It's not ruining the hobby. Like 95% of people who wanted a Pokemon Elite are going to get it at MSRP and they're going to unbox it. Just because there's 30 people that might flip them, how does that ruin the hobby? There are thousands and thousands and thousands of games that you can go get tomorrow for a very good price. The one thing I need to now figure out is what do I do with Guns N' Roses CE? Do I keep it in storage, give it to my kids one day, or do I sell it? And how much can I even get for a Guns N' Roses CE? I'm going to be honest with each and every one of you. I'm looking at the market. Yeah, there's one for sale, 12,000 or best offer. I don't think you're getting anywhere near 12K anymore for Guns N' Roses CE. I think you're looking more around the ballpark of like 10 or 9,500. I don't know. I've got game number 500. Not sure if that means anything. It's Canada's personal game. I think that probably takes more money off the price. I've got an extra play field I bought that I'll never swap in because I put all the washers down. I don't know. Like what's a Guns N' Roses CE you think? Email me at canadapinball at gmail.com and I'll read some of your answers on the next show. I want to get back to giving you guys some shout outs. So, you know, feel free, man. I'm lonely on my email. I don't get as many anymore. You guys just want me to help you sell your Beetlejuices. I'll try. I'll try. It's a tough time to sell Beetlejuice. I think you'll sell it when you have the game in hand. I think people are not going to throw money at a Beetlejuice spot anymore and wait this many months. And also don't forget, we've got the five Beetlejuice games available for MSRP. I'm going to do that soon. I need to do that soon. Put all the names in a hat of everyone who's interested. I'm going to verify that you're a club member and I'll do a live pulling of the names out of a hat. Please don't raise your hand if you already have a spot. You don't need to. Don't be greedy. This is a goodwill thing. We're not going to auction them off like Project Pinball and make like 13,000 on top of the game in just five seconds. We're going to make sure that these go to people who really will open it and appreciate it. Okay, everybody have an amazing Friday. I might be going over to Automated Amusements tomorrow. They might be getting Beetlejuice. The tracker says it arrives today. So if that does happen, you might see a live Kaneda Saturday morning spectacular in which we will be in front of Beetlejuice. So excited to play that game because my game is going to be made at the end of the line, the end of the year. Everybody, happy Friday. Thank you so much for the support. Nothing but good energy and vibes for you and your family. Kaneda out. Go Life is way too short to take it slow Before I go and hit the road Tell me When When can I see you again? When can I see you again? When can I see you again?