Episode 857: "Expo is Make or Break for JJP"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·25m 13s·analyzed·Oct 10, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.035

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts JJP's Elton John is make-or-break amid market oversaturation and emerging competition.

Summary

Kaneda discusses upcoming Pinball Expo reveals and the make-or-break moment for Jersey Jack Pinball with their Elton John machine, predicting pricing pressure and market saturation. He emphasizes the imminent release of multiple games (Elton John, Labyrinth mystery game, Pinball Brothers remake, and Jaws in December), advocates for consumer caution against pre-ordering, and reiterates his confidence in Back to the Future coming from Dutch Pinball. Throughout, he addresses perceived credit gaps in pinball media coverage and promotes his Patreon tiers.

Key Claims

Jersey Jack Pinball is announcing Elton John as their next game at Pinball Expo
high confidence · Kaneda speaks with certainty about the Elton John reveal and discusses JJP's history of poor theme selection
The mystery pinball company is Labyrinth
high confidence · Kaneda states 'I think we all know it's gonna be Labyrinth' and references clues he previously identified
Pinball Brothers is remaking Twilight Zone (possibly, or Dracula)
medium confidence · Kaneda mentions hearing 'Twilight Zone is coming back' and speculates whether it will be the Pinball Brothers remake, previously predicted Dracula
Stern Pinball is releasing Jaws in December 2024
high confidence · Kaneda states 'I'm hearing now is coming out in December' regarding Jaws and frames it as a major market disruptor
Back to the Future is coming from Dutch Pinball
medium confidence · Kaneda claims 'I am telling you my show will go off the air if that rumor doesn't come true' and attributes breaking this rumor to his show
Chicago Gaming Company has ordered parts for 500 Medieval Madness reissue machines
medium confidence · Kaneda reports 'I've heard for 500 Medieval Madness games' and predicts a final edition will eventually be released
Jersey Jack Pinball accelerated the Elton John reveal to lock in pre-order dollars before Jaws releases
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates 'they know they need to show something right now' and 'they need to lock in pre-order dollars on Elton John'
Jersey Jack has a billionaire backer preventing financial accountability for poor game performance
medium confidence · Kaneda states 'if there wasn't a billionaire backing this company...this company would be under' after Toy Story 4 and Godfather flops
Secondary market Stern and JJP machines are being discounted and sold through proxy Pinside accounts by distributors

Notable Quotes

“The entire move is being dictated by one simple thing. They know...they need to lock in pre-order dollars on Elton John that are non-refundable. They need to get it now. They're never gonna get it after Jaws is out.”
Kaneda @ ~27:00 — Core thesis on JJP's business strategy and market timing urgency
“This is it for Jersey Jack. I mean it. If this game is D.O.A., y'all have a question...This is make or break for JJP.”
Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Declares Elton John as existential moment for JJP after two perceived failures
“I am telling you my show will go off the air if that rumor doesn't come true. That's how much I'm confident it's gonna happen.”
Kaneda @ ~05:00 — Hyperbolically stakes his credibility on Back to the Future from Dutch Pinball
“Everyone is over these high prices. You can feel it...I'm done. Like I'm tapping out. Like I'm not going to spend thirty thousand dollars on two Jersey Jack CEs.”
Kaneda @ ~44:00 — Articulates widespread market sentiment on pricing fatigue
“They made all of these marketing decisions as if COVID was still here and the excitement was the same as Guns N' Roses. And even look at the Guns N' Roses excitement. It didn't last very long.”
Kaneda @ ~22:00 — Critiques JJP's timing and scale miscalculation
“Spooky Pinball has nothing but goodwill...They didn't have a billionaire bail them out. They didn't go bankrupt three times and then have someone save them...that is why Spooky Pinball, no matter what they do moving forward, the origin of that company will always be probably the most impressive.”
Kaneda @ ~51:00 — Contrasts Spooky's earned reputation against JJP and Stern's corporate histories
“Just be careful. Don't run in and order something just because you saw it right away. You're not going to have a hard time getting any of these games...just be patient.”
Kaneda @ ~58:00 — Direct consumer advice against FOMO-driven pre-orders amid oversupply

Entities

Jersey Jack Pinballcompany KanedapersonJack GuarneripersonSteve Ritchieperson Keith Elwinperson David Thielperson

Signals

?
announcement: Jersey Jack Pinball announcing Elton John machine at Pinball Expo; Kaneda describes with certainty, though no official confirmation present in content
high · Kaneda discusses Elton John reveal timing, pricing, CE quantities, and market reception without hedging; references JJP's history of non-secret announcements
?
machine_intel: Mystery Pinball Company's game is Labyrinth; Kaneda claims to have broken this scoop and identifies clues previously
high · Kaneda states 'I think we all know it's gonna be Labyrinth' and references clues he assembled weeks prior; Jason Knapp allegedly credited him
?
machine_intel: Pinball Brothers remaking classic game, speculated as Twilight Zone or Dracula; social media hint about 'Ellen/Ripley' birthday suggests potential Alien integration
medium · Kaneda reports 'I hear Twilight Zone is coming back' and speculates whether Pinball Brothers will announce it; references social post about 'happy birthday Ellen' as Ripley coded-character hint
?
product_launch: Four to six new pinball machines releasing in 3-month window (mid-October to December 2024): Elton John (JJP), Labyrinth (mystery), Twilight Zone or Dracula (Pinball Brothers), and Jaws (Stern) in December
high · Kaneda states 'in less than three months, I think you're going to see four to five, maybe six new pinball machines' and lists Elton John, mystery game, Pinball Brothers remake, and Jaws (December)
$
market_signal: New Stern and JJP machines (Venom LE, others) being discounted on secondary market via proxy Pinside sellers; distributors liquidating inventory ahead of Jaws release

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.076

0:00

Tentacle of the year 2019 Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. It's a calm before the storm. All of these games are about to drop on us in just like two weeks time. The end of the week's time. We're going to have so much to talk about, so much to analyze. And the one question on my mind is this, who's streaming Pinball Expo Live? Do we know where to watch these things? Like there's a Jersey Jack reveal, there's a mystery game pinball party, Pinball Brothers is going to roll out their remake, which I heard might be Twilight Zone. We'll talk about that. And then we're going to talk about what I think is going to happen as all of these new games just drop on us all at once. Now first and foremost I want to say this, I don't know about you but every Monday I wake up, I go to the gym and then I read some pinball media. I'm usually up at like 5 in the morning, I'm skimming pin side, I get the email from this week in pinball. I open it up and I read about how the labyrinth might be the mystery game from the mystery pinball company. And guess who broke that scoop like two weeks ago? Yours truly. Guess who put all the clues together? Kaneda. Jason Knapp even gave me credit and then I go on This Week in Pinball and there's no mention of my name. It is unbelievable the horrible journalism that is in this freaking hobby and look I'm just asking when I do call something right or I put something together at least give Kaneda credit. But that's why you're here because as much as everybody wants to invalidate this show, there's no stopping the fact that you're gonna get the best information here. Why is everybody talking about Back to the FutureNow and Dutch Pinball? Who told you that rumor first? Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. And I'm telling you right now. I am telling you my show will go off the air if that rumor doesn't come true. That's how much I'm confident it's gonna happen. And look, we've got some time to go. Everybody knows this. They're not done with the big Lebowski builds. But man, if there's one company that we all wanna see do something with Back to the Future, it's Dutch Pinball. What are they going to do with the clock tower? Are they going to have a hoverboard? Are they going to have movies 1 and 2 represented in the game? After what they did with the Big Lebowski, is there any other pinball company that you want to make? I should, you know, even as I say that I hesitate because they're still making the Big Lebowski after 10 years. And that is the biggest question mark is if they do make Back to the Future, which I really believe they're going to do, how long is it going to take them to make all these games? But look, as I said, you don't have to overcommit. Alright, let's talk all about Pinball Expo, what's going to happen with these companies, and I want to give everybody some real solid advice. But before I do that, I want to give a big shout out, and I said this, I want to give a shout out, I have a new section of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, and it's called Kaneda's Raise the Roof Club. And the Raise the Roof Club are the people who have been fans of this show who have increased recently how much they donate to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. And I'm going to do this. Now look, every time someone raises the roof, they are going to get a shoutout on this show. So I want to give a shoutout to the recent people who gave a little bit more to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. I'm talking about Jeff T. I'm talking about Lit Pinball, Randy W., Jeff Kinsey, Chairman Now. Who's chairman now? Come on, give me your real name. Frank DeAngelo. Frank, I love you, brother. Donald over at Oasis Arcade. Rod and Osborne over in Australia. Rod and I love you. I have conversations with this man at like 3 o'clock New York time because I know he's up in Australia. My boy Derek Stutzman, Drew S., Stuart Burns, Rodney C., Rob W., and Dan Jansen. Now, Dan's always hitting me up because he's one of my biggest contributors on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Dan gives $50 a month. So Dan, you get an extra special shout out. Now look, that's the Raise the Roof Club. So if any of you out there raise your subscription, you will get a shout out on Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. Thank you guys so much. On the next episode, I'm going to introduce what the Omokase Club is, and that's a higher tier of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast fandom, but we're not going to do it right now. Let's talk about Pinball Expo. Let's talk about what's about to happen. Jersey Jack Pinball. That's the big question mark for me is how are they going to show up at this show? Are they going to have multiple versions of Elton F fifteen minutes kisses The reason why we know it's Elton John has Jersey Jack pinball ever surprised us We knew it was dialed in we knew it was Toy Story The only surprise there was that it was Toy Story 4 only they surprised us in the wrong way We knew they had Willy Wonka. We knew they had Guns N' Roses We knew about Godfather and we know it's going to be Elton John. They can't keep anything a secret The question is this, is Steve Ritchie going to be able to deliver a game that's going to live up to all the trash talking he's been doing about his old colleagues at Stern Pinball? Is this going to be the Jersey Jack game that wins us back? Is it going to be the game that has that world under glass? Now the thing is this, how do you even make an Elton John world under glass game and what market research did they do? Subtitles by the Amara community I think people want something that cool And if you know the demo for pinball, 40 to 60 year old men, it's just not as cool to put an Elton John machine into your game room. And the reality is that Jack Guarnari has been picking themes that Jack Guarnari wants. He hasn't done any market research. It is put this entire company in jeopardy and if there wasn't a billionaire backing this company, if there was not, if Jack's decisions were actually held accountable by their own merit, this company would be under. They would be under after Toy Story 4 alone, let alone Godfather. Two flops in a row, this company would be under. But billions can bail out anyone in the world of pinball. Now, here's the other big question about this game. How much are they going to charge for it? Do you think Jersey Jack can march into Pinball Expo and with a straight face ask people to pony up $15,000 for a CE with a straight face after we've seen what's been happening to their previous two games? I don't even care how loaded it is. Just on theme alone, I don't think you can ask people for $15,000 for Elton John. And then it's like how many collector's editions are they going to make? Are they going to dial it back down? It was a huge mistake by Jersey Jack Pinball to parody Stern and announce a thousand collectors edition. They made all of these marketing decisions as if COVID was still here and the excitement was the same as Guns N' Roses. And even look at the Guns N' Roses excitement. It didn't last very long. And so they made these very, very important decisions in a very small amount of time. And after they've made those decisions, the stars have not aligned for Jersey Jack Pinball. The climate changed. Other games came out that had more enthusiasm than their games. And they brought out two games that just didn't excite people. So are they going to price cut their games? What do you think? Comment in the section of this podcast. I think Jersey Jack Pinball needs a price cut. I think they need to charge $13,500 for CEs and I think they need to charge $11,000 for the LE. I also think they need to learn one major lesson. Do not say you're going to make 5,000 LEs. They need to stop this insanity. Nobody's going to buy 6,000 units of a game like Elton John. It's never going to happen. And when you announce on day one that you're going to over flood the market with the product, all you're doing is killing the demand for the product. So will they lower the price and will they lower the volume? The other thing is this, is the game on the line. The last two Jersey Jack games, they revealed them after a hundred or so of them were already built and in a box. I don't think they're going to have a hundred ready to go in a couple weeks. I absolutely do not. Aren't they still making Godfather CEs right now? Do you even think they made a thousand Godfather CEs? I don't. So this move by Jersey Jack Pinball, I think the entire move is being dictated by one simple thing. They know and now you know because you listen to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, they know that Jaws is coming out in December and they were probably planning to release this game closer to December than now but they know they need to show something right now and there's one The reason why you know what the reason is they need to lock in pre-order dollars on Elton John that are non-refundable They need to get it now They're never gonna get it after jaws is out And this is a thing when I said I want to encourage each and every one of you to do something don't pre-order anything I saw this funny post by it was our sh pinball in France our friends over there. I love these guys I saw they put up a Facebook post that was like, if you're interested in the new game from Jersey Jack Pinball, make sure you get on our list for a chance to get one. And I started laughing out loud, a chance to get the next Jersey Jack Pinball collector's edition. That is like getting on a list, getting early in on an IPO where you're gonna lose money on the initial offering of the machine itself. Look at the last two games from Jersey Jack Pinball. Anyone who bought on day one, I lost money on Toy Story, I stayed as far away from Godfather as I could, but anyone who bought their machines on day one of reveal has lost a lot of money. So how many times do you need to be fooled and just wait, especially if they're gonna ask for this much money for the machines, especially if there might be a thousand CEs and an unlimited five thousand LEs. I mean, it's so bonkers that they can't learn a lesson at all. They need to try something new. So we will see if Jersey Jack try something new. I don't really think they are. And the reason why I don't think they're going to try something new. I think they're stubborn. I think they're arrogant. I think when Jack gets on the mic, when he talks and the way he takes digs at Stern and the way he talks about his own company, there's a lot of delusion and revisionist history going on. You know, this is it for Jersey Jack. I mean it. please be replying to the one that sent this article to me afterrun the dita but yeah i didn't LED likes an lanesery so we gotta it okay I won't send it fortunately I got it today If this game is D.O.A. Y'all have a question, You owe me anın

12:07

The Pressure for the mystery pinball company, there's no pressure really for pinball brothers because they're gonna remake something But this is it this is make or break for JJP Kaneda is gonna be sitting back in New York City with a glass of whiskey and a cigar and I'm gonna light it Right when their reveal happens I can wait to see what they do if they don bring a game and they like two minute video I really hope they get the same guy and girl from the freaking Toy Story 4 video and just have them with that ecstatic fist pumping when they show Elton John How are you gonna do it? I mean I just don't get how Elton John is gonna work. Is it gonna be 1970s Elton John? Modern old Elton John on his recent farewell tour. I just don't know. How do you make Elton John as cool as Guns N' Roses? How do you do it? All right, so look that's Jersey Jack. It's gonna be the most interesting reveal at the show. Now we've got this mystery pinball company. I think we all know it's gonna be Labyrinth. The thing about this company that's interesting is this. I think they're gonna come into the pinball landscape with a game that has a lot in it and I think they're gonna undercut everybody on price. That's my prediction. I don't think you're gonna see this game being like $12,000 to $15,000 to $13,000. I think this thing might be like $8,500. I think if they can deliver a fully featured game and price it right and it's a licensed themed game, I think there's gonna be a lot of people that are gonna be excited about supporting this new pinball company. Everyone is over these high prices. You can feel it. It's like this unspoken, well, it's very spoken, especially on this podcast, But everyone's just feeling like I'm done like I'm tapping out like I'm not going to spend thirty thousand dollars on two Jersey Jack CEs. I'm not going to spend thirty grand on two Stern LE machines. By the time you're done with the topper and inner art blades, you're out like 30k for two Stern machines that they're gonna make a thousand of. My favorite thing today was seeing this like Venom LE. Some guys like I'm selling it for a friend at like eleven thousand seven hundred and twenty-five dollars. The Brand new new inbox Ellie's being sold for like a discount and the guys not even taking possession of the game You know, what's really happening there? Those are distributors Selling these games through other people on pin side It's the only way a distributor can sell the game for below map pricing and these distributors need to get rid of these things Before jaws comes out and as I said jaws I'm hearing now is coming out in December I haven't heard a lot of people talk about this. I don't know if it's news or not, but man, that puts a whole nother interesting thing into the pinball marketplace. It is now mid October, October, November, December. In less than three months, I think you're going to see four to five, maybe six new pinball machines come out into the world. Now, I look at that and I say, wow, what a great time to wait. What a great time to see what Keith Elwin's cooked up. What a great time to see maybe there's going to be another vault from Stern Pinball. I don't think so. I think Stranger Things was the vault You want another piece of juicy news on this show? I hear Twilight Zone is coming back. So is TwilightZone gonna be the game Pinball Brothers shows us? I said it was gonna be Dracula. Maybe it's TwilightZone. Here's another crazy thing. Chicago Gaminging Company, who can't seem to make these pulp fictions, they have ordered parts I've heard for 500 more Medieval Madness games. 500 more! So they're most likely at some point in this company's ever delayed existence, they will rerun more medieval madness games and it'll most likely be some final edition of the game. So everybody's spending $20,000 on these royal editions. I think you're sorely going to regret it and there's just too much coming. And on top of all of this, we all know now and Kaneda's confirming you're going to get back to the future. It's the one theme that everybody wants. Whenever you ask what is the number one pinball theme you want to see, it is Back to the Future at the top of that list and it's coming out. It's coming out and everyone's going to have to credit Kaneda for like confirming this thing, but man, it's like no one ever wants to give me credit. This is a positive pinball podcast, ain't it? So for me, it's like man, if I have to make decisions and I see all these new games, it's like a no brainer. Like I'd rather wait a year and not get Elton John and get Back to the Future. I'd rather wait a year and not get a theme that I'm not totally in love with and then get back to the future. Now look, some of you out there, you can buy everything and I know you know who you are. But for most people, it's not that simple. For most people in this hobby, they might have to pick just one game a year. And I would rather have one game that I absolutely love than two games that are just okay, right? Two games that I'm just dabbling at. Like Galactic Tank Force is a great example of a game like that. Is the game fun? Yes, it's fun game. Is Godfather fun? Yeah, it's a fun game to play. Do you want to own it? That's the number one thing. All of these companies need you to own a new in box game. They're not going to make money. They're not routing these machines. They don't see a penny on a secondhand sale of their product. American Pinball needs you to want to own a galactic tank force. And I don't understand how anybody would really want to own one. Same with the Godfather. It's like I'll play one, I'll put 50 bucks in one on location if you can find either game. But to want to own one of these games means you have to absolutely love the theme and love the theme integration that's going into the machine itself. And then also you have to kind of want to support the company. You know we don't talk about this all the time, but the truth is is people feel good about Stern. at the number. And 28,erc. The Jersey Jack Pinball for the last 10 years has been talking smack about Stern Pinball, but hasn't delivered enough Consistency or a cadence of games that have made people fall in love with them And then when they do those interviews it almost like makes it impossible to love what they're saying Spooky pinball has nothing but goodwill. They almost only have the goodwill though. They have more than just the goodwill The Spooky Pinball is a start People love them because they represent the American dream They built their company from the bottom up and they never ripped anybody off They never lied to customers They did it the right way And that is why Spooky Pinball, no matter what they do moving forward, the origin of that company will always be probably the most impressive when you look at everybody. They didn't have a billionaire bail them out. They didn't go bankrupt three times and then have someone save them. WHILE, we're Schwab fat sucks Mormon for back help for Chianos quit In Winning Warfare, we Narrator Hcken, we're Floppy alright hun up a little bit. The end of the day, I'm going to give this one first to a few of you out there, and then I'm going to give it to everybody. So don't worry, I'm not going to hold back on you, but I just want to reward those people who give a little bit more to Kaneda's Pinball I'm calling it the omokase club. I'll tell you what it is on the next episode. So you'll hear this but just just keep in mind, you know Kaneda wants to scratch the back of some of you a little bit more since you scratch my back a little bit more. All right. So let's talk about the pinball brothers. They put up a post that was like happy birthday Ellen and it was Sigourney Weaver's birthday or maybe it was Ripley's birthday in this show. I don't know which what it is. I think it's Ripley's birthday from the Alien movie. Maybe they celebrated in one of the movies and so they said happy birthday Ellen. And people are speculating that that means that Ellen Ripley is going to be coded into the game and that's going to be one of the surprises that the Pinball Brothers drops on the pinball world. I just want to say this for the record. I understand that Alien has some of the best music and theme integration from an asset standpoint even though it doesn't have Ripley. David Thiel did such a good job with the game and the atmosphere of Alien Pinball is so amazing. But here's the thing, I don't like the layout, I don't like the toys in the game, I don't like the design of Alien that well, I think the game itself is just mediocre and the theme is an A plus game. What I would really love is for them to eventually expire the license and someone to make a better version of Alien Pinball. This can't be it, this can't be the final version of Alien that we ever get. I think someone else can make a much better version of this game. Oh man, Monday Night Kaneda, I'm going a little crazy today. How's everybody doing? You know, look, I just want to say thank you for all the support. I know that people are not always going to give me credit when I break scoops. I just want to say, look, all we're looking for is to be entertained in pinball and I'm really happy you come here on a weekly basis to get my enthusiastic take on what's going on in pinball. In just a week and a half, the entire pinball world is going to get turned upside down. I mean, that was one of the clues for Labyrinth, but the entire pinball world is going to be turned upside down. The world is going to get turned upside down. We're going to see everybody try to get you to preorder their games and everyone's going to ask for preorders. It's going to be the Mystery Pinball Company. It's going to be Jersey Jack Pinball Company. It's most likely going to be the Pinball Brothers and I just implore each and every one of you, just be careful. Don't run in and order something just because you see it right away. You're not going to have a hard time getting any of these games. These are not the big games coming out. These are not the Your There's too much stuff piling up on the shelves. So just be patient. Take Kaneda's advice. When you see these new games at Expo, unless you absolutely need to have one of the first ones made, it would be much wiser to just wait and see where the market settles on all of these things because once December hits and Jaws hits, that's the only game. I'm telling you right now. Keith Elwin is the only guy that if you want one, Hi everybody, you should move quickly because I don't see his stuff ever going down in value. Everybody have a great Monday. We will be back with more episodes of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast and thank you everybody for the support. And just for the record, I'm never gonna raise the prices of being a part of this show. It will always be just $5 to come through the door. If you feel like in the modern world you're getting more than $5 worth of value from me both here and on Facebook Live, I absolutely Absolutely would truly appreciate anyone that wants to join the Raise the Roof Club. Everybody have a great day. We'll talk to you soon.