Episode 1057: "Be a Spectator not a Speculator"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·27m 4s·analyzed·Feb 28, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.036

TL;DR

Kaneda predicts Harry Potter delays, criticizes weak 2025 themes, warns against collector speculation amid market saturation.

Summary

Kaneda discusses Christopher Franchi's mysterious Texas Pinball Festival teaser (likely Back to the Arcade Future, not Big Lebowski), predicts Harry Potter will ship later than The King Kong despite being announced first, critiques current game themes as underwhelming compared to classic IPs, and warns collectors against speculative purchases in a depreciating secondary market oversaturated with inventory.

Key Claims

Christopher Franchi is working on Back to the Arcade Future with Dutch Pinball, not Big Lebowski Pinball 25th Anniversary
medium confidence · Kaneda speculates based on Franchi's cryptic teaser and Facebook post mentioning 'way to go Barry, can't wait to join the team for the next game'
Jersey Jack Pinball failed to maximize Elton John Collector's Edition sales by not using Christopher Franchi's artwork on that variant
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion based on Franchi's previous work on The Godfather and observation that Franchi's Elton John art was 'the nicer version'
Stern Pinball has not adequately tested recent releases before consumer shipments (X-Men, Dungeons & Dragons motor issues)
high confidence · Kaneda cites specific product failures and expresses concern about The King Kong given Stern's recent launch history
American Pinball is a 'dead entity' with no direction, sitting on unwanted inventory, and Cuphead has missed its market window
medium confidence · Kaneda's assessment of American Pinball's current state and business prospects
Harry Potter will ship later than The King Kong despite being announced first due to pre-manufacturing strategies
medium confidence · Kaneda's prediction: 'I actually think people are going to be unboxing The King Kong before they unbox Harry Potter'
Barrels of Fun's new game (likely Gilligan's Island or Dune) will be revealed at their backyard show and has slow production timelines
medium confidence · Kaneda advises against pre-ordering because secondary market availability will provide better pricing
Stern Pinball uses Limited Edition allocations as leverage to force dealers/distros to purchase Premium and Standard editions
high confidence · Kaneda explains dealer distribution model: 'If you want this many Limited Editions...you have to commit to buying all of these Premium Editions'
Current game themes (Harry Potter, King Kong, Elton John, John Wick, Evil Dead) lack mainstream appeal compared to classic licenses like Ghostbusters, Star Wars, or Batman

Notable Quotes

“It's like, oh, what's he going to talk about? What's going on with Mr. Christopher Franchi and Dutch Pinball? I just don't get it.”
Kaneda @ early segment — Expresses confusion about Franchi's mysterious teaser and Dutch Pinball connection
“I think if Franchi's art was on the CE, they would have sold way more CEs of that game...Still a mistake by the way, Jersey Jack Pinball not to have the Franchi artwork be the collector's edition.”
Kaneda @ Elton John discussion — Critiques JJP's Elton John Collector's Edition artwork decision
“The smart man is a spectator in pinball. The dumb man is a speculator.”
Kaneda @ closing argument — Core thesis of the episode; advises patience in secondary market over speculative pre-orders
“I actually think people are going to be unboxing The King Kong before they unbox Harry Potter. That is my prediction.”
Kaneda @ Texas Pinball Festival predictions — Key prediction about relative shipping timelines for two major 2025 titles
“You really haven't had something like a Ghostbusters in a long time or a Batman or a Star Wars in a long time...what's happened in pinball is we just have to kind of accept what we get.”
Kaneda @ theme quality discussion — Articulates community sentiment that recent themes lack blockbuster appeal
“Remember when they released Guns N' Roses? They had a hundred machines already made out on location...And we had a lot of excitement and energy and a lot of instant feedback.”
Kaneda @ manufacturing strategy analysis — Contrasts past pre-manufacturing practices with current delayed shipment models
“All of these companies are so worried about keeping the secret and it is no secret. It's no secret that it's going to be Harry Potter.”
Kaneda @ manufacturing concerns — Critiques secrecy culture preventing adequate pre-production testing
“The way Stern Pinball gets dealers and distros to buy inventory is to basically dangle the James Cameron's Avatar (Limited Edition) allocation in front of them.”

Entities

Christopher Franchiperson Dutch Pinballcompany Kanedaperson Barryperson Jersey Jack PinballcompanyStern Pinballcompany

Signals

?
machine_intel: Christopher Franchi posts cryptic Big Lebowski 25th Anniversary teaser (curtains opening) on social media, which Kaneda interprets as misdirect for Back to the Arcade Future announcement at Texas Pinball Festival
medium · Franchi teaser image posted; Facebook comment 'way to go Barry can't wait to join the team for the next game'; Kaneda deduces game is not Big Lebowski because production is winding down
?
product_launch: Kaneda predicts The King Kong will ship to consumers before Harry Potter despite Harry Potter being announced first, due to Stern's pre-manufacturing vs. JJP's delayed production strategy
medium · 'I actually think people are going to be unboxing The King Kong before they unbox Harry Potter'
?
product_concern: Stern Pinball's recent releases (X-Men, Dungeons & Dragons) shipped with defects due to lack of pre-production testing; concern that The King Kong may repeat this pattern despite high stakes
high · X-Men motor failures, D&D motor replacement issues cited; Kaneda notes new Stern factory has 'more issues than not with new releases'
$
market_signal: Collectible limited editions are depreciating significantly; manufacturers and dealers now openly discounting games, reversing 12-year historical pattern of price appreciation
high · 'You never saw dealers, distros and manufacturers alike putting their games on sale...We've never had the volume and oversaturation of inventory like we do now'; individual machines losing $3,000-$5,000 in one year
~
sentiment_shift: Community sentiment shift: recent game themes (Harry Potter, King Kong, Elton John, Evil Dead, John Wick) lack mainstream appeal compared to classic blockbuster IPs like Ghostbusters, Star Wars, Batman; 40-60 year old male demographic not excited

Topics

Christopher Franchi's mysterious Texas Pinball Festival teaser and Dutch Pinball involvementprimaryHarry Potter vs. The King Kong shipping timelines and manufacturing strategiesprimarySecondary market depreciation and speculative collector buyingprimaryGame theme quality and mainstream appeal (40-60 year old demographic mismatch)primaryStern Pinball's testing and quality control issues with recent releasessecondaryAmerican Pinball's business viability and Cuphead prospectssecondaryDealer/distributor forced purchasing and Limited Edition allocation leveragesecondaryGame announcement strategies post-COVID and the diminished importance of trade showsmentioned

Sentiment

mixed(-0.25)— Kaneda expresses enthusiasm for pinball but frustration with current market dynamics, theme selections, and manufacturer practices. Optimistic about future deals for patient buyers, pessimistic about speculative collectors and some manufacturers (American Pinball, Steve Ritchie's Halo). Mixed feelings on 2025 major releases—hope they're good, but skepticism about demographic appeal.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.081

You can run and you can hide But I'm not leaving unless you come with me We've had our problems but I'm on your side You're all I need, please believe in me Asena, asena, asena, asena, asena, asena, asena Welcome everybody to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. What's he doing? I thought he was going away. I'm going to be doing back to back shows. Well, look, I'm about to go under tomorrow and have my surgery. So I thought, let me just give my podcast fans more episodes to listen to because it might take a few days before I'm back in the saddle. Here's what I want to talk about on this episode. I want to give some of my wishes for things I hope happen in 2025. But before, there is always pinball news every single day. It's like, oh, what's he going to talk about? What's going on with Mr. Christopher Franchi and Dutch Pinball? I just don't get it. Like first he releases this teaser image of the Big Lebowski 25th anniversary game with the curtains opening up and it's like something's coming big to TPF. Alright, we know it's not going to be the Big Lebowski. They're winding down production of that game. They're not going to make another version of the Big Lebowski. It's clearly a misdirect and Chris knows what he's doing. He's trying to make us think it's that but it's not that. Then he posted on a Dutch Pinball Facebook page like way to go Barry can't wait to join the team for the next game. And I'm like what like does that mean he's joining the team to do Back to the Future? I hope he is. Everybody wants Franchi's artwork. On every day and every timeestar at 어쨌든 В Н habrым заразмен в Nummer I thought he was like an exclusive guy at Spooky. I don't know what's going on. I do know that he's got a big personality and it's hard for him not to share his excitement when he starts to sort of be on these projects. I know that he didn't want to go anywhere near Harry Potter because I love how he talks about it. He's like, no matter what you do with Harry Potter, the fans are not going to be satisfied. And so, you know, look, he worked on Godfather. He worked on Elton John. His Elton John was the nicer version of the game. Still a mistake by Jersey Jack not to have the Franchi artwork be the collector's edition of that game. I think if Franchi's art was on the CE, they would have sold way more CEs of that game. And I think the CE just doesn't look as good. It really doesn't look as good. Alright, so at least there's something Franchi's gonna reveal to the world at Texas Pinball Festival. You know, people have been hitting me up and they're like, I'm going to TPF, Kaneda. What do you think is gonna be shown at TPF? Now TPF used to be a show where a lot of the manufacturers would reveal their games and you know, they didn't reveal the games before the show itself. There would be like a seminar. Remember those days where we were looking forward to the company's seminar? Did these kids know that you're playing with Universal Submarineshetto worms? Depends on what type of streaming platform you are. I like Iron Cup, and if it does well, this is a great place to start. I remember I think it was Cactus Canyon where they were going to reveal it at Expo and they already had the games on the floor before their seminar. So you could like see it there before you saw it at the seminar, which was supposed to be the moment they revealed it for the first time. But I think COVID has changed pinball marketing forever. You don't need to go to a show and sales during COVID were phenomenal. I think some of these companies realize that. If I have a good title and a good theme, I don't really need to spend all the money, fly all the staff, do a PowerPoint presentation that's terrible, that looks like a third grader did it, and then reveal the game in this room full of sweaty men and the first time the world sees our game is over-the-shoulder cell phone footage of Neil McRae playing the game. This week's topic is the following. What is the best way to show your game to the world for the first time? You don't have to spend $100,000 like Jersey Jack on these hyperpolished videos. You also don't need to make these stern videos. You know, they're always in that dark room and it's like Jack Danger or Zach Sharp like walks up to the machine and has this really serious look on his face. Like that's not also the best way to do it. So I think for the most part, the shows have no longer become the moment in which these companies are planning their reveals. So at TPF, here's what I think you're going to see. Something mysterious from Christopher Franchi. It's probably just going to be some artwork he's going to sell. I don't know. Maybe he made some Lebowski artwork he's going to sell without permission. I don't think so because if he now is working on Back to the Future with them, I don't think he wants to piss off Barry. Okay. I think we're gonna get portal from Jerry and P3 Multimorphic even though I feel like he hasn't really shipped any of those collector's editions of The Princess Bride remember Princess Bride was revealed to the world a year ago and I don't think a single person has got the game with you know with the swords on the side and the full collector's edition for 13 grand has a single person even like a single person Knapp Arcade A year and a big question I have about this year is when Jersey Jack releases Harry Potter Are they going to have a ton of games made My worry is they are not because they're not on the line right now. Remember when they released Guns and Roses? They had a hundred machines already made out on location. And what was fun about that? Both Jersey Jack and Stern were manufacturing games well before reveal. So that on reveal day, it was like everybody can enjoy the game. Some games are on location. You could go pick it up if you were near the factory. And we had a lot of excitement and energy and a lot of instant feedback on what the game was like. And I think if you're going to release Harry Potter in twenty twenty five, you might as well start making them now. You could have a thousand games made on the day you reveal the game and they would all be going out the back door to customers. Now I can hear some of you saying, well Kaneda, the problem is with all of these new in box games, what happens if there are issues? My response to that, you're telling me you've been working on Harry Potter for years that you don't have like five to ten fully built production ready games. You don't have like five of them at least in a room somewhere where people are playing them nonstop for like a few thousand plays to catch any issues. We all know the answer is they're not doing that. All of these companies are so worried about keeping the secret and it is no secret. It's no secret that it's going to be Harry Potter. It's no secret that it's going to be King Kong. They're not testing these games. And so that is why I think we've seen a retreat, if you will, of pre-making games before reveal. They did not pre-make Elton John. They did not pre-make Avatar. They made people wait. There was a long gap still between reveal and people getting their CEs. And I think Harry Potter is going to be maybe more of the same. I think they might reveal it. There's going to be like a two month wait to get the game on the line. The problem with that is by the time they reveal the game to the time they make it, King Kong is going to come out. And King Kong will be on the line instantly. And I do not foresee Sternpinballchanging their new strategy which is the LE games get made first. Now, we're all hoping Stern Pinball is testing the LEs of King Kong right now. Stern's had some dicey launches. Look at X-Men. Completely not tested. Look at Dungeons and Dragons. That motor had to be replaced. So if you read the writing on the wall, All Stern is not adequately testing these games before they go in box to consumers and as we all hope that King Kong is loaded with mechs and toys, you know, now that they're going to have Spike 3 and a price increase, we really hope the game does not ship with any issues. But if we look at the new Stern factory, they've had more issues than not with new in box reveals from the new factory. So I hope that's not the case. But I think and here's my prediction. I actually think people are going to be unboxing King Kong's before they unbox Harry Potter. That is my prediction. Okay, so let's go back to TPF. We might have a new game from Jerry. Is Cuphead going to go to Texas Pinball Festival by American Pinball? I don't think so. I don't even think anyone works at American Pinball right now. There is no line going. They are sitting on a bunch of old inventory. Nobody wants, I don't think Mukesh has a real direction on where he wants to take this company. And also, there is not gonna be a good time to release Cuphead in 2025. And I'm saying that because where's the window? At what window in a world in which all these games are so much money, you've got amazing designers over at Stern, you've got Harry Potter license, you've got David David Van Es, Knapp Arcade. There is not going to be much new in box sales on this title. They waited too long and now I think as a brand, American Pinball is kind of like a dead entity. I don't think they have a fan base anymore. I don't think they have any support and I think people are going to show that with their wallets. Okay, so you might get Cuphead at TPF. Barrels of Fun is around the corner. You know me. Barrels of Fun, that show is their backyard show. I'm here to talk about my wish for 2025. I just realized like I'm way off, but I love doing it like this. I just want to talk about what's relevant right now. And maybe this is way more relevant than my wishes for 2025. So I'm going to change the title of the show to something else. All right, so here we go. So we've got barrels of fun and you know, everyone's waiting to see is a GI Joe. Is it dune? But this is their backyard show. This is the one. David David Van Es, Knapp Arcade. We're going to make all 1100. Okay, now, now is the moment. This is the moment for barrels of fun and I think they need to get out early. Remember barrels is also another company where production doesn happen quickly This is something that everyone needs to be reminded about I still don think These boutique companies that slowly make games I still don think there any reason to order one unless you're at the front of the line because by the time they get around to making your game number 300 or 400 or 800 by the time that happens Some of the first 300 games are going to come up for sale. By the time that happens, they're going to bring some games to shows that you could buy off the show floor. And also by the time, let's just say they showcase GI Joe or Dune in April of 2025. All right, April. So if you order it, you're not getting your game anytime soon, but you've just committed to buying a $10,000 game. And the deposits are going to be practices, ENDS I'm going to be paying through the nose to get the game. That's not true. Everything's become readily available all throughout the year. It's first release. Jaws LE readily available. You could have got one. You didn't have to spend more than 13. Every single game. Even Metallica remastered LE. I love seeing the game sliding back down to 13. More and more of them are going to go up for sale. You know why? Because now all those speculators are going to be I'm John Papadiuk, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, and I'll see you next week. I'm going to get the next boutique from Spooky, from Barrels, from Dutch, whoever it is. If you want to get it, the best way to get it is wait and cut the line. When you get on the back of that line, you're going to be waiting longer than you should. Okay, so back to TPF. We got maybe the next game from Barrels. Everybody is hoping it is going to be GI Joe and not Dune. I think it could just be something completely different. It might not be either of those two titles. And then we're not going to see anything new from Stern. We're not going to see Harry Potter. I don't think we're going to see Medieval Madness remake yet. They are getting these Pulp Fictions out the door pretty quickly. I know they were through half of the run and they're going to be done with the run of Pulp Fiction LEs easily by April. So I think we're going to see Medieval Madness sometime in the summer. Name of medoje sk originally was born on 1978 conditioned Dunja but as as itалась dennis babyfienst this drama was born on Italian female offlane called Dre coordinator Raffate Northern quiz ofryn right some of the vendors they no good and e to Koto to me redo again and so those are going to sell you're going to sell and what's nice about medieval manners remake behan understanding hayes now all the royal edition guys that not that our games werepas 18 to twenty grand congratulations were about to get more whether it's called the royal agreement I'm going to have to wait for the next game to come out. It's going to be Mark Ritchie's Halo. It's going to bomb. I'm telling you right now, it's going to bomb. Halo as a theme isn't even a thing anymore. I mean it. It's just a weird Halo as a theme isn't even a thing anymore. I mean it. It's just a weird theme to bring to pinball. Let me ask you guys a side question. Cause I've been talking to people all week and someone came to me and said Chris Kaneda, you know, Chris Kaneda, same person. I don't think any of these themes coming out this year are really that great. And when you think about 40 to 60 year old men, are we huddled around each other geeking out and dreaming of getting Harry Potter of I'm not a fan of the old-fashioned pinball. I'm a fan of the old-fashioned pinball. I'm a fan of King Kong, of another run of medieval madness, of Cuphead, of Dune. Think about it. There really isn't a theme, and I agree with that. That's within the 40 to 60 year old guys that this is what we've been dreaming about. This is what if we talked socially about what would be the top five themes we'd want to see in pinball, these themes are scratching that itch. And I agree. I agree. What's happened in pinball and it's not just this year, let's be honest. You really haven't had something like a Ghostbusters in a long time or a Batman or a Star Wars in a long time. And I think what's happened, it's like since 2022 on or 2023, I think what's happened in pinball is we still love pinball. We still love it tremendously. We still get excited about what these companies are going to do to excite us, to show us their creativity under glass. I think pinball over the last two to three years has been we just have to kind of accept what we get I don't think these have been the themes that people like really truly you know dream about I don't John Wick no venom no Jaws maybe a few people but still Jaws is not the same as Star Wars it's not the same as Ghostbusters and then you get stuff like Evil Dead is not that for most people it's definitely not Berrios barbecue challenge it's definitely not avatar it's Mike Corbin ** These times goes plagued byALTI grandchildren Aut Merry Christmas because somebody it is is what happening in the geopolitical world and how that might impact pinball All the tariffs going on what going to happen in the stock market what going to happen to your ability to sort of buy these luxury items, what's going on with the cost of living everywhere else in life. It's getting significantly more expensive to wake up every day and enjoy the things you want to enjoy. I'm John Papadiuk, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, transliteregon I'm going to do that. That's my promise to you. I want to thank each and every one of you that has increased your subscription amount. It means a lot to me. So thank you so much. Some of you, it's nothing. You know, you've got a lot of money. Some of you, I know you're cutting back, but you're still here. So I really do appreciate it. You're not going to really have to stop and join this hobby very much because also most of you have really great games in your home and you're satisfied and you don't need more. And I think more and more people are going to realize that. Okay, look what we caught up with this time. What's up, minus, here's nothing, nothing descending at all. The pinball sales wouldn't be nearly as good as they are. They have created FOMO amongst the collectors of pinball. You can only have 500 of this version. You can only have this many and that drove a lot of the FOMO and all of the pinball sales. Don't forget this. The way Stern Pinball gets dealers and distros to buy inventory is to basically Seriously, dangle the LE allocation in front of them. If you want this many LEs that's gonna make you the most per sale and you want your allocation to be high, you have to commit to buying all of these premiums and all of these pros and that is how it's worked for a long time. But what happens when you hit where we're at now? Collectible pins are now a hugely depreciating asset. Anyone who jumps in on them is getting hosed. And the FOMO to get those items, think about it. Who has a fear of missing out on a pinball machine that's gonna lose you $3,000 to $5,000 in one year? How does that continue to create FOMO? The answer is it won't and it's not going to last. And if you were to ask me, I think the big change Talis Anderson Math These works are also previewed by Ryan Sheeran, a �ím앤ά recognition. This week one think about what happens. They're still going to have to make these games because they got to keep the line going. The dealers and distros still have to buy them because that's their livelihood, but they're going to sit on them. And when they sit on them, we're going to see more and more of these dealers and distros allowed to sell you these games on sale. We're seeing it. The manufacturers have started putting their games on sale. Remember that never happened. I've been I've been covering this hobby for 12 years. You never saw dealers, distros and manufacturers alike putting their games on sale because we never saw these things depreciate the way they are now. We've never had the volume and oversaturation of inventory like we do now and it is a great time to be a patient buyer. And as I think about Harry Potter and Kong, it's not I know they're bigger IPs, but I just don't know if these 40 to 60 year old men are going to be clamoring for these themes. I hope they are both great games. I hope they both bring a lot of magical moments to pinball. I hope they give us endless hours of fun. I'm going to be very expensive in a world that's very expensive. So it's going to be fun. It's going to be fun to watch all of this. But for me and for a lot of you, it's more fun to spectate and not speculate. I think that's going to be the theme of this show. The smart man is a spectator in pinball. The dumb man is a speculator. If you speculate and go in on everything right away, only do that if you're a multimillionaire and losing all this money doesn't matter. But for everybody else, just Also cardirictintuspectate along with Keneadإ, and trust me, if you really want it, and you love it, you'll be able to get one for a lot less money, and use that money you're gonna save to do other things in your life that will enrich your life way more than pinball will. Everybody, I'm about to have surgery tomorrow. I hop you enjoyed this show. Thank you for your support. I really appreciate it. Invite some more friends to the show. I love that we're doing it here. I love being off of Facebook for a while. I think we're just doing the most entertaining show that's out there. I don't think anybody talks like this. A lot of people have tried to copy me, copy my format, copy my length of shows. You can't copy this because they can't talk like this because they're not like us. Later everybody. Do all Laser