Episode 692: "Pinball Prices Are NOT Softening"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·30m 48s·analyzed·Jul 5, 2022

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.037

TL;DR

Kaneda: pinball secondary market prices have surged 50-100%+ despite perceived softening; hobby faces sustainability risk.

Summary

Kaneda argues that pinball prices have NOT softened despite collector sentiment suggesting otherwise. Using Pinside marketplace data, he demonstrates that virtually all sought-after games—from Stern's Metallica ($17k, up from $7k), Iron Maiden ($19k), and Godzilla ($16.9k) to Jersey Jack's Guns N' Roses CE ($15-20k) and classic Williams titles like Lord of the Rings ($12k, up from $7k seven years ago)—have appreciated 50-100%+ in secondary market value. He argues this pricing inflation reflects not improved gameplay but collector disposable income, manufacturer pricing power, and FOMO-driven scarcity dynamics, ultimately harming the hobby's collectibility appeal and player sentiment.

Key Claims

Stranger Things machines that sat unsold at $9,000 new now sell used for $16,000—a 78% increase in secondary market value.
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pinside marketplace listings during July 2022 analysis
Metallica Limited Edition machines cost $7,000 new but now command $17,000-$18,000 on secondary market—a 140-150% increase.
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pinside marketplace price analysis
Iron Maiden Limited Edition is listed at $19,000 firm, a $10,000+ increase from original MSRP—over 100% profit.
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pinside marketplace listing
Lord of the Rings Limited Edition appreciated from $7,000 (purchased seven years ago) to $11,900-$12,000 currently on sale—71% appreciation.
high confidence · Kaneda's personal transaction and current Pinside listings
Guns N' Roses CE from Jersey Jack has declined from $18,000-$19,000 range to $15,000-$17,200, showing market softening only in non-Stern titles.
high confidence · Kaneda comparing historical prices to current Pinside listings
Spooky and Jersey Jack use non-refundable deposits; Stern Pinball does not need them because of brand strength and collectibility confidence.
medium confidence · Kaneda's opinion/speculation about deposit structures and brand confidence
Deadpool Limited Edition has appreciated approximately $6,000 from original launch MSRP, representing ~70% increase in value.
high confidence · Kaneda citing Pinside marketplace pricing for multiple units
Godzilla LE machines are available new for $16,500-$16,900 with used examples around $15,500, suggesting strong value retention.
high confidence · Kaneda analyzing current Pinside marketplace listings
Dialed In Limited Edition CE ($150 units ever made) now sells for $16,500—designed by Pat Lawlor and undervalued relative to newer games.

Notable Quotes

“You're going to pay like $16 or more thousand dollars. And so what I want to do on this episode... is absolutely not. The pinball market is not softening.”
Kaneda @ ~3:00-4:00 — Core thesis statement: market prices have NOT softened despite community perception
“The nonrefundable deposit, the nonrefundable thing with Spooky Pinball, with Jersey Jack Pinball, there's a reason why Stern Pinball doesn't need nonrefundable deposits.”
Kaneda @ ~6:00 — Reveals confidence disparity: Stern collectors willing to commit without refundable protection; others require it
“With 1000 Louis Toy Stories being made, a CE for below 15 grand... I can see the climate on this game. By the time they make it, the demand for this game is going to be gone.”
Kaneda @ ~8:00 — Prediction of negative sentiment and price depreciation for oversupplied newer games
“17 grand for these games. What is going on? The market is not softening because one just sold for around $17,000.”
Kaneda @ ~28:00 — Direct evidence: Metallica LE sold at $17k, proving no market softening despite extreme price inflation
“Pinball prices aren't softening people... The pinball market is so inflated right now, it is comical.”
Kaneda @ ~35:00 — Rhetorical climax; emotional assessment of unsustainable market inflation
“Who wants to spend $30,000 on two Jersey Jack Pinball CEs? That's what they're priced at... Two pinball machines for $30,000.”
Kaneda @ ~41:00 — Market sustainability concern: entry cost for two premium CEs now prohibitive for typical collectors
“If everyone's going to make a thousand of every single Limited Edition and CE moving forward, then nothing's really collectible.”
Kaneda @ ~44:00 — Critique of oversupply strategy destroying collectibility and FOMO dynamics
“The ability to flex with your collection is disintegrating... You're a sucker. You paid way too much for something.”

Entities

KanedapersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack PinballcompanySpooky PinballcompanyPinsideplatform Gary SternpersonJon Heyperson

Signals

$
market_signal: Comprehensive secondary market price analysis shows 50-150% appreciation across Stern Limited Editions (Metallica $7k→$17k, Iron Maiden $8.5k→$19k, Stranger Things $9k→$16k) despite collector perception of softening market.
high · Pinside marketplace listings analyzed for 20+ games; consistent 70-100%+ appreciation in sought-after Stern titles
~
sentiment_shift: Community sentiment shifting from pride in owning limited editions at reasonable premiums to embarrassment about overpaying; 'sucker' stigma emerging for recent high-price purchases.
high · Kaneda: 'Everyone's like, you're a sucker. You paid way too much... that's what's happening with Louis Toy Story'
?
product_concern: Manufacturer game quality/features not improving proportionally with price increases; newer games like Louis Toy Story criticized for gameplay/toy count despite $12-15k pricing.
high · Kaneda comparing Lord of the Rings (more toys, better design) at $12k vs. Louis Toy Story at $12-15k; questioning why new games justify high prices
?
business_signal: Stern increasing Limited Edition base pricing to $12,000+ across new releases regardless of theme popularity; Jersey Jack maintaining $15,000-$20,000 CE range; Spooky using non-refundable deposits.
high · Kaneda noting Stern pricing standardization, Jersey Jack CE pricing range, contrast with Stern's brand confidence not requiring deposits
?
collector_signal: Zero Star Wars LE units available on secondary market signals extreme scarcity; Metallica/Iron Maiden sell immediately at premium; vintage Williams titles (Totem $6.5k→$13k) rising alongside modern games.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.092

0:00

I tried so hard and got so far But in the end it doesn't even matter I had too far to lose it all But in the end it doesn't even matter I had too far to lose it all Welcome to Kaneda's Pinball Podcast everybody Hi everybody, I hope you had a very great 4th of July weekend in Ireland. Nobody celebrates it. And as I tell all of the people here, that's because you are unsuccessful in getting the British out of your country. I'm super happy to do this show and here's what we're going to talk about on this episode of Kaneda's Pinball Podcast. We are going to talk about whether or not I think the pinball market for you collectors out there, and this is for collectors, whether or not the pinball market has softened. And I don't think it has. I think we keep saying that and people keep saying I'm noticing the market is getting softer. I'm noticing prices are coming back down to reality. But the truth is that's not very truthful when you look at what's available. And if you're a collector and you get bit by the pinball bug and let's say it's right now, it's July of 2022 and you get into pinball, You are going to start to look for games to buy and you're going to want to get the better games and you're going to want to get the LEs. You're going to want to get the CEs of all of these pinball machines that you've been hearing about. And right now it's interesting because right now there are so many games out there that people are saying are great games to own, right? Look at Stranger Things for example. This was a game that sat new in box for like a year and a half at like 9,000 All of these games are free and you can get them at $1,000. You couldn't give the game away. Now, try and go get a Stranger Things LE and see what you're going to pay. You're going to pay like $16 or more thousand dollars. And so what I want to do on this episode of Knapparate Pinball Podcast, it's going to be fun because I haven't done this in a while. I am going to go down a list of the games that I think collectors really want to own and I'm just going to go on to the pin side marketplace and we're going to look at the price. How much money are people asking for these games? And then let's ask the question, is the pinball marketplace softening? Are we headed towards a recession? And is that being baked into the price of these games? And I'm here to tell you right now, I've done a little cheating. I've looked at some of the prices and the answer is absolutely not. The pinball market is not softening. It's not going south. These games, the ones people really want, they are so much more expensive than they ever were. And I also just want to say that I'm very happy to Hey, guys. I'm here to talk to you about the pinball content creators out there and everybody is responding to Toy Story the same way. Everyone is saying the game's fine, the game is fun, but there is nowhere near $12,000 to $15,000 in value for Toy Story 4. And I'm just happy to see this. We all universally agree. And as I'm talking about the pinball market and pinball prices, I have to say this game is going to lose value. If you bought a collector's edition of Toy Story, by the time they make it, you are going to see people trying to get rid of their deposits. And I've been saying this for the last year and a half now. The nonrefundable deposit, the nonrefundable thing with Spooky, with Jersey Jack, there's a reason why Stern Pinball doesn't need nonrefundable deposits. But if you've committed to spending $2500 on Toy Story 4 and you committed to $2000 on Ultraman and Halloween, what you're going to see is you're going to be able to get those games for less money than you committed to buying them for. And I mean it. With 1000 Toy Stories being made, you're going to be able to get a CE for below 15 grand. And by the time they make this game, I mean it, I can see the climate on this game. By the time they make it, the demand for this game is going to be gone. And everyone can sense it. Everybody knows it. And again, it doesn't mean that the game's not fun. It's just not a game that people are going to want to hand over $15,000 for or $12,000 for. And everyone will have enough time on an LE. And by the time they're asked to make up the difference for their CE, they're gonna wanna bail. All right, so enough about Toy Story 4, right? You're gonna lose your shirt on the game, you know you are. Let's talk about the other games out there, the games that the collectors might wanna buy and how much money they would have to spend on it. So let's start with the Munsters Limited Edition. Now I was there and I remember it all too well when the Munsters LE came out. There was a lot of demand for the game at the very beginning. Remember, this was a game in which Stern up the number of LEs they were going to make from 500 to 600. But then they screwed over everybody because what made the Munsters LE at first glance a really appealing buy was it was supposed to be the only full featured version of the game that had a full color playfield because remember the premiums were just black and white and And then the LE was the full colored playfield. And then they announced they were going to make a full colored premium version of the Munsters, which made the LE not that exclusive anymore. And remember, this game didn't even come with the topper, which is now impossible to get, by the way. So the Munsters LE, when it came out, I believe this game was $9,000. So how How much money would you need to spend to get a Munsters LE today? So there is only one game for sale on Pinside which is out of 600 only one is available to buy. It is currently listed as sale pending for $14,500. Now I don't know what any of the final sale prices are but they will probably be close to what the asking price was. So that is an increase of $5,500 on the original price of the game. Over 50% increase in price. Alright, let's go to Deadpool Limited Edition. Now DeadpoolLE was another game. When it came out, we were all sort of complaining there weren't curses. We were complaining a little bit that there was Deadpool on a spring. We were complaining about sort of the lack of movie clips and all that jazz. This week we have a new game. It wasn't hard to get a Deadpool LE at all. And they made 500 of them I believe. Now how much is an out of box used Deadpool Limited Edition? There are 2 for sale right now. For the prices. Wait there's 3 for sale. SummarysoleA Six thousand dollar increase in price over the game That is about what Like a 70 increase over what this game was new in box And come to me and tell me that pinball prices are softening. Let's go to GodzillaLE next. GodzillaLE, now this is a game that is being heralded as one of the greatest games of all time. Now the good news is if you want to get probably one of Stern's best games ever This Week in Pinball, Black Water, Kaneda's Pinball Podcast, Twippies Awards, translite This week's game is a special edition of Pinball and the game is available for $16,500, $16,900, $18,000, $16,500, $16,900 and $23,000 with a sale pending. There is no way that game sold for $23,000 when there's another new in box game for $16,900.

8:53

See, when you look at the pin side marketplace, you almost have to throw out the highest priced one and the lowest priced one to get the real indication. But right now it's looking like if you want to get a Godzilla, you can get one new in box for like $16.9. If you want an opened one, the cheapest we're looking at right now is around $15.5. I think if you offered $15, you'd walk away with one. But this is still a really great return on investment. But again, it's also another increase in price. So even with a thousand out there, if you want a Godzilla, I'm going to be talking about the game Star Wars Limited Edition. I'm going to be talking about the game Star Warslimited Edition. This is where it gets fun. Games that people really have been crapping on for a long time. So a game like Star Wars, they made 800 of them. And you're asking yourselves, how much is a Star Warslimited Edition right now on the marketplace? There's zero. There's zero for sale. That's incredible. You absolutely can't find a Star Wars LE. And so when something like that happens and there's like no supply, you best bet that the first person who lists their Star Wars LE is going to ask for a lot of money. Now look, there's a Star Wars premium here for sale for $7,300 and I think that's the smart bet. Wait, is this an LE? This looks like an LE. Hold on a second. Now this is a premium. There are no LEs for sale. Alright, let's look at Mandalorian Ellie, a game I've been ragging on. Did MandalorianEllie hold its value? Let's see. Alright, so MandalorianEllie, remember this game knew was... So MandalorianEllie, this game, I believe they made 800 MandalorianEllies. I forget what the price was of Mando. I want to say MandoElly was $10,000. And so right now, the price of this sort of indicates where this game is at. For this theme being so popular and we're seeing Mandalorian so there's a sale pending at $10.5 and then there are a bunch of them for $13.2, $13.5 new in box, $12.9 new in box which is sale pending, $11.9, $11.5, $12,000, $12.7 all for opened up versions of the game. You know Mandalorian is a game that really didn't sort of win everybody over. You're not seeing that sales spike on this machine. I don't think you're ever going to see this game go up more in value. So I would argue that Mandalorian has still gone up, right? It's still crazy. If you bought this game new in box, you're still making money. And we're starting to see a pattern here where every single Stern machine has been a great investment. And I think a lot of people are applying this mentality to everything at Spooky, everything at Jersey Jack. But the truth is the reason why Stern pinball machines keep going up in value is they have the largest collector base. And I also think people believe in Stern's quality the best. I think Stern games are sought after more because they're less problematic. And I'll say this when you line up Stern games next to each other, they just look the best. It's like matching luggage. And that is why Stern Pinball is so smart. They know exactly what collectors want. But what about older Stern games? Let's look at Lord of the Rings LE. So I bought my Lord of the Rings LE seven years ago. I paid $7,000 for Lord of the Rings Limited Edition. And it was in good condition. There was maybe like one broken plastic. But today, if you want to buy a Lord of the Rings LE and there's only 400 of them, there is one for sale for $11,900 and one for sale for $12,000. This week's topic is the best offer. So it's a lot of money, right? This is a DMD error game. It doesn't have great artwork. It's still one of the greatest pinball machines of all time. It has way more toys in it than anything happening right now in Toy Story. See this is the part about Toy Story. It's kind of crazy to spend $15,000 on a Toy Story CE. I would much rather go buy Lord of the Rings Ellie in which there's 600 less of those than Clockman, All right, now what about Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles LE? I still think Ninja Turtles is a beautiful game, but it was a game when it came out. It really didn't catch on. I think the game was just too hard. I think the game wasn't as satisfying as people want it. And the prices of TMNT LE reflect that. Right now, there is a sale pending for an $8,500 TMNT LE. So at that price, right, the game was nine grand. So at 8500 you actually lost money on TMNTLE and this is a good sign. Like you don't want every single game to just go up in value regardless of how good the game is. Um, there's another one for sale for 10 five. Now what's interesting about this is if someone's listing it for 10 five and one sold for 8500, that's really good bargaining power. If you want one to go to that guy selling it for 10 five and say, Hey look, one just This week's topic is the most popular game in the world. The game is called Stranger Things. Stranger Things is a game that sat forever. Now we have two for sale. $16,000. 16 grand people. These games were 9 grand and they sat in a box. These are opened up used machines by the way. For $7,000 more than they were brand new. What about Jurassic Park Limited Edition How much would one of those cost today Well there one for sale Just one and it listed as firm which means he not taking a penny below that Jurassic Park LE New was what We looking at about over what the game cost Twice the price And you telling me the pinball market is softening. Let's go to Ghostbusters LE. Now Ghostbusters LE is interesting because this game is still, I think, the most beautiful pinball machine that Zombietti has ever done. I think it's one of the best pinball themes Stern has ever had. And I think it's one of the most like packed with toys colorful pinball experience. I would also argue that it's one of the worst shooting games. That no matter how you skin this game, it's like you're holding on for dear life. It's not a fun game to shoot. It is a more fun game to listen to and to watch. Now that being said, Ghostbusters LE. When this game came out, it was $8,000. How much would an LE cost of Ghostbusters? The prices have come down some. I'm looking at a sale pending for an LE for $15,000, another one for sale for $15,500, another one for sale for $18,000 or best offer. But that one comes with the topper. So basically you're looking at Ghostbusters without a topper around 15K. That is an increase of $7,000 more than it was new. About an 80% increase in price. Pinball prices aren't softening people. Oh, Iron Maiden, Keith Elwin's masterpiece, Iron Maiden LE. Are you sitting down people? $19,000 firm for an Iron Maiden LE. I had one. I flipped one for like a couple thousand dollar profit when it was like eighty five hundred bucks. This is about ten thousand dollars more than this game was new. More than a hundred percent increase in the price. And the premiums are selling for twelve thousand plus dollars. Twelve thousand for a premium of Iron Maiden. A game that they're still gonna make. You will still be able to get Iron Maiden premium in the future. No one at Stern said they're never making Iron Maiden again. And this is the issue. This is bonkers. And now you wonder why Toy Story is $12,000 to $15,000. Because they're looking at this stuff. But the problem is you got to make a game as good as Iron Maiden LE to charge this kind of money. And we know that Toy Story is not as good as Iron Maiden. See, here's where the problem lies, people, is Metallica Limited Edition. What was the Metallica LE when it came out? $6,700 maybe $7,000. Alright, maybe $7,000 if you want a Metallica LE today, right, you just got into this hobby. There are three for sale. One is sale pending at $17,000. One is for sale for $17,500. And then another one's for sale for $18,000. These are all $10,000 more than this game was brand new. I'm going to give you 10,000. See, the hobby sort of jumped the shark. We all know it. We all used to joke that a $7,000 Metallica would be 10K by Christmas. But 17,000. 17 grand for these games. What is going on? The market is not softening because one just sold for around $17,000. I mean if you want a Batman 66LE, right? An LE of Batman66, which was what when it came out? I think the LEs were 10 grand and I think the LPs were $10,000. I think the LEs were $10,000. I think the LEs were 10 grand and the premiums were 8,500. I think it was something like that. An LE of Batman 66 which was once $10,000 is now $19,999 is how much they want for the game.

25:52

Why does anyone want to be a part of a hobby where the prices go through the roof but what we're getting for the money hasn't improved at all? If I'm going to spend this much money, I want to see games like the Big Lebowski. I want to see games like Wizard of Oz. I want to see games packed from end to end of that wood, north to south, east to west. I want to see tons of stuff in the game. But that's not going to happen. And it's not gonna happen if people are spending this much money on a Deadpool or this much money on a Stranger Things. So did everybody make 80% more money salary wise? Has everyone's portfolios gone up 50%? I'm just not sure where this is all coming from. I think the thing is this. It's like the people who are in this hobby have disposable income. And the ultimate reality is, is for these people, they can afford to spend $20,000 easily On a pinball machine. So maybe in their heads they've been getting these machines at a discount all these years on all these games that were always worth less than 10K. But I think the new reality is it's getting easier and easier to say no. Because who wants to spend $30,000 on two Jersey Jacks CEs? Does anyone want to really do that? Two pinball machines for $30,000. That's what they're priced at? Get ready for it people. That's the price for two Jersey Jack CEs even if they're not great machines. Like they're just going to charge you that regardless of what's in it. Stern Pinball is going to start charging you $12,000 for LEs regardless of how great the game is. Like I could understand if you want to spend $12,000 on Batman or Back to the Future, but do you want to spend $12,000 on Venom? Do you want to spend $12,000 on the Foo Fighters? And this is the thing. I'm not saying it's like in a world in which everything costs the same amount of money. I don't think you can do that when themes have different degrees of popularity. And also they're going to make a thousand of every single LE and CE moving forward. Then nothing's really collectible. So my summary is this. Nothing is really that collectible anymore. Everything is overpriced in my book. And I do think if we keep going in this direction and flooding the market with $12,000 to $15,000 games and games that used to be $8,000 are now selling for $17,000. If we keep going in this direction, so many people are going to wave the white flag and say I'm done. I'm just going to enjoy my collection. I don't care anymore about these super high priced versions of games because the other thing I think is happening is this. The ability to flex with your collection is disintegrating. Like people don't care because remember it was really cool when you got like a Jurassic Park LE for 8,000. It was really cool when you could get a Tron LE for 6,700 or find a Lord of the Rings for $7,000. But nowadays if you're showing, Hey, I just bought a Stranger Things LE and I paid 16,000. Everyone's like, you're a sucker. You paid way too much for something and you didn't get I think that's what's happening with like Toy Story is like nobody feels like this sense of pride or accomplishment in landing one. And for so many years it was easy for all of us to get LEs, get CEs, pay what they were worth and then show people, hey, I just unboxed my game and I didn't have to spend 80% over the price of the game to unbox it. 80% over the price of the game just to have it. And I think that's where this hobby is headed. We are just like enough we can't take all these prices the market has not softened it hasn't it's still crazy high do you think I'm wrong like let me know but that's just my sentiment is this hobby has gone through the roof it didn't even happen slowly like someone just flipped a switch and all of a sudden all these Stern LEs were double the price or seven thousand more than they were new it's bonkers it's absolutely bonkers everybody thank you for joining the Kaneda club if you're new and thank you for hanging out all these years if you're not I'll Talk to you soon.