The Pinball Show Ep 138 BONUS: You Thought Early 2023 Was Loaded With New Releases...

Pinball Show Patreon Feed·podcast_episode·18m 25s·analyzed·Sep 26, 2023

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.029

TL;DR

Pinball Show predicts 7-8 machines releasing by year-end; warns market saturation and JJP licensing strategy risks

Summary

In this Pinball Show bonus episode, hosts Zach and Dennis discuss the unprecedented saturation of pinball releases in early 2023 and predict 7-8 major new machine announcements/releases through year-end from Stern, JJP, Pinball Brothers, Spooky, and others. They analyze market fatigue, the competitive disadvantages of tight release windows, and criticize JJP's recent licensing decisions (Godfather, rumored Elton John) as poor strategic choices compared to competitors.

Key Claims

7-8 major pinball machines will be released or announced from now through end of year
medium confidence · Zach (host) states this as a prediction based on behind-the-scenes industry intel; includes Stern November release, next Cornerstone announcement, JJP by Expo, Pinball Brothers, Pinball Adventures Elements, mystery company game, and Spooky Scooby completion
Market for new-in-box pinball machines has significantly cooled since Foo Fighters launch
medium confidence · Dennis claims reports indicate secondary market pricing downturn post-Foo Fighters; attributes this to market saturation
Tight release clustering of 8+ games will result in some manufacturers losing sales
medium confidence · Dennis predicts winners/losers dynamic similar to early 2023 saturation; cites example of American Pinball GTF possibly hurt by release timing
JJP's Godfather was not a strong seller
medium confidence · Dennis asserts Godfather sales underperformed; references Steve Ritchie/Jack Guarneri interview with unstated interesting details
Pinball Brothers has major US expansion moves planned
medium confidence · Zach mentions 'big moves' (figurative and literal) and 'US moves stuff' for Pinball Brothers without specifics
Long delays between game unveiling and availability hurt hype (Pulp Fiction example)
high confidence · Dennis explains license requirements forced early unveil of Pulp Fiction; by ship date, game felt 'old news'
JJP may announce Elton John-themed pinball game
low confidence · Zach mentions 'rumor Elton John by Steve'; speaker dismisses 'Tiny Dancer Bash' as unlikely to succeed; presented as speculation
A Kingpin remake will NOT be released by end of year
medium confidence · Dennis states definitively: 'we are not gonna see it either by the end of this year' regarding Kingpin remake

Notable Quotes

“I'm here to tell you that if everything goes and shakes out the way that I've been hearing behind the scenes here in this industry, we will have nothing short of at least seven Pinball machines released from now till the end of the year.”
Zach @ early segment — Core prediction of the episode; claims insider industry knowledge
“Some people are going to lose simply because they came out in too tight of a period.”
Dennis @ mid-episode — Central thesis on market saturation harm; applies to both early 2023 and predicted end-of-year scenario
“You can't have eight games come out and they all do well.”
Dennis @ mid-episode — Articulates zero-sum competitive dynamic in saturated release window
“They've always been weird. Like they've always had weird stuff like here, let's have the community change the Hobbit C-bar in the whole here let's show off triple spinning discs and then take them away...”
Dennis @ later segment — Criticism of JJP's inconsistent product/communication strategy over time
“Toy Story 4 did worse than I thought they thought it would and then Godfather did as worse as everyone should have told them it would.”
Dennis @ closing segment — Explicit criticism of JJP's recent licensing choices; suggests weak market performance
“I don't think Elton John's gonna knock it out of the park. A rumor Elton John by Steve- what? Tiny Dancer Bash toy ain't gonna do it, guys.”
Zach @ closing segment — Skepticism about rumored JJP Elton John title as licensing pick

Entities

ZachpersonDennispersonStern PinballcompanyJersey Jack Pinballcompany Pinball BrotherscompanySpooky PinballcompanyAmerican Pinballcompany Pinball Adventurescompany

Signals

$
market_signal: Dennis reports secondary market for new-in-box machines has 'significantly cooled' since Foo Fighters launch; attributes to saturation
medium · Dennis states 'all the reports I have received is the market on new in box has significantly cooled off since then'
?
product_strategy: Hosts predict 7-8 major machine announcements/releases by year-end will create unprecedented competition for buyer dollars, replicating early 2023 fatigue
medium · Zach predicts '7-8 major pinball machines released from now till the end of the year' based on 'hearing behind the scenes'; Dennis extends analysis of market winners/losers
?
announcement: Stern expected to release November game (vault or studio model); next Cornerstone possibly announced before January 1st with January shipping
medium · Zach states 'Stern Pinball. By year's end, I think we're getting something November. I think we're going to get a vault of some type or a studio of some type in November'
?
product_concern: Dennis criticizes JJP's recent licensing choices as poor strategic decisions; Toy Story 4 and Godfather both underperformed; skeptical of rumored Elton John title
high · Dennis: 'Toy Story 4 did worse than I thought they thought it would and then Godfather did as worse as everyone should have told them it would. I don't think Elton John's gonna knock it out of the park'
?
machine_intel: JJP predicted to release game by Expo or December; rumored Elton John title in development (unconfirmed speculation)
medium · Zach predicts 'JJP: I think we're going to get a game by JJP by Expo or maybe shortly after' and later references 'rumor Elton John by Steve'

Topics

Early 2023 pinball release saturation and market fatigueprimaryPredicted 7-8 machine releases by end of 2023primaryImpact of tight release windows on individual game sales performanceprimaryJJP licensing strategy and game performance (Godfather, Queen, Toy Story 4, rumored Elton John)primarySecondary market cooling for new-in-box machinesprimaryManufacturer announcement timing vs. production readiness gapssecondaryDifferences between licensed and unlicensed game marketing/release strategysecondaryPinball Brothers expansion and competitive positioningsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.65)— Hosts express concern about market saturation, criticize JJP's strategic decisions, and warn of impending competitive harm. While tone is conversational/casual, underlying message is pessimistic about market health and manufacturer decision-making. Skepticism dominates discussion of upcoming releases.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.055

Warning, the following episode contains adult language and screaming goats. Listener discretion is advised. The Pinball Network is online. Launching the Pinball Show. Thanks again for the ongoing support as a Pinball Show Club member. Enjoy this exclusive TPS content and make sure to visit the Pinball Show Club Discord to chat about the bonus material. Dennis, let's talk about the newest games coming out. Oh, what are they? I was relying on you for no one. Oh The ones coming out. Well, I hear there's gonna be a time to dance. Oh, damn you do know. Okay. Yeah Well the one about that and Pulp Fiction maybe well, hey, maybe maybe someday TBA TBA the reason that I wanted to make this the exclusive because there's some juice and nuggets here I like my nuggets juicy, but At the early part of this year, we had so many games released that people were talking about fatigue, you know, that's why there's nobody booing anything. There's so many games. We've got Galactic Tank Force, we've got, what was it, Foo Fighters, we had Pulp Fiction, we just had Scooby Doo like a couple months prior to that, Centaur Revisited, Queen, like there was a lot of games that came out in that first quarter. So much so that people were like, are we even Closed Spectrum-We'll-We'll-We'll get the stern game, right? Closedängtress I'm here to tell you, here's my predicintion, that might shock you guys, you may think that the early part of this year, listener was a plethora of games, but I'm here to tell you that if everything goes and shakes out the way that I've been hearing behind the scenes here in this industry, we will have nothing short of at least seven Pinball machines, released from now till the end of the year. How? How Dennis? That doesn't seem very realistic, Zach. There's no way. I think I have to disagree with you just on the principle that numbers don't lie. I want to disagree with me. But, that's what I'm hearing. Seven or eight. Now that's new products. You know. I think... Here we go. Stern Pinball. By year's end, I think we're getting something November. I think we're going to get a vault of some type or a studio of some type in November. That's one. Then we got, by the end of the year, I think there's a strong possibility that Next Cornerstone gets released before January 1st, at least announced, and they start shipping in January. So that's potentially two. J.J.P.: I think we're going to get a game by J.J.P. by Expo or maybe shortly after, but certainly before December. That's three. Pinball Brothers? I'm hearing of something considerably that could be new by Expo time. That's four. And I'll also say there, Pinball Brothers, they've got some really, really big moves, Dennis. I say that figuratively and honestly big moves. There are some US moves stuff going on. Big stuff going on with Pinball Brothers. Pinball Adventures Elements? See that? Whatever it is. That's five. Remember MysteryMan? George Spelvin or whatever the fuck his name is? That mystery company? Yes, he has a curly mustache. The six i think there's a good case to be made for spooky pinball to be almost done with their almost done with their runs of scooby-doo by the end of the year that would when today now scooby in december that seven and those are just the those are just off the top of my head that's a lot of that's a lot of stuff going on is a lot i think it could happen Satya sid sunny for the sissaller oat4example I really have enjoyed the game a lot but the problem is when you go and I think my co partner for EGP Tony and I we played for us eight or nine new games that we never played So a lot of that stuff was first time at TPF and a couple of things were Scooby, which had only been at one other show a few weeks before, and Queen, which that was like its first appearance at a major US show. So, like, they're winners and losers when you are in that boat. And I get it, they don't know when everyone else is going to be releasing, they need to consider when they're going to get in front of people. So that's where you hear these, you know, like these things about is JJP going to try and get a new game out by Expo? Is Pinball Brothers going to try and get their game to Expo? Those sort of things, you know, about that need for that, because a lot of these, especially if they're doing titles that aren't licensed, need to get in front of people. So I, like, I understand why they might pick the times that they pick, But this unfortunate side effect we already saw with what happened at TPF and I think we sort of saw with Foo Fighters and the huge number of sales initially with Foo Fighters and since then all the reports I have received is the market on new in box has significantly cooled off since then and I just think you're competing for fewer dollars at this point and eight games that's going to be even worse than it was in March. So, I, some people are going to lose simply because they came out in too tight of a period. And that, and you could, one could argue like, that's kind of what happened to American Pinball with GTF. Yeah. Some people argue and say, no, the gameplay had issues, but, but one could also say, well, not, you can't have eight games come out and they all do well. Yeah, it was, it was the time in which it came out. It was the lack of marketing or lack of really good marketing at the, around that time, lack of license that, there was a lot going on there. But I think you nailed it when you talked about especially like Pinball Brothers and JJP and their last releases were Queen, arguably not a great seller, and The Godfather, which I know we didn't talk about on the regular show of Pinball Profile interviewing Steve Ritchie and Jack Guarnieri. We could have because there was some interesting stuff said in there without a lot of stuff being said, but I don't think that was the bestseller either. So, you're right. They, because of a lot of things including the market and saturation of different companies and products coming out all in unison, but those two companies like Pinball Brothers and JJP, I think are kind of forced to, well, we're not really making a lot of Godfathers or Queen right now. We got to make something. We've made so many aliens, so we got to, what's next? And how close are we to being ready? Now, here's the thing. I think you're going to see people I'm not going to say which ones because I may have information on that. I think you're going to see companies that make the mistake of needing to have something else to sell but not being entirely ready to produce these things. So maybe we have some announcements by one of these companies, Stern or somebody else, where they're announcing because they need to. It's up next, but they're not quite ready to start building, so we're going to have a big lag. Bernhard R briefas Attérica terminar Finale for below 60 times on Big Code at Feb. and May 21. Bella Jackner in ao Thang an A 我めて The Pinball Purchase it and I'm probably in the minority on this but like I don't think the given all the rumoring of the pinball tiles I think revealing the license titles is not a big deal I don't think that is so I don't consider hype dying the moment You know a title because we already quote-unquote know a lot of these titles and that does not inherently kill hype But once you show what the game is going to be like Pulp Fiction for example, and I understand Yeah, I remember hearing in an interview with Josh Sharpe like their license requirements basically meant they had to unveil it Cut ath l Wi d sak d initiative Analyze Scene So about when it gonna be available and when it finally available it old news Yeah it doesn feel new anymore And different companies try and do different things like we saw Multimorphic here just a few weeks ago basically try and relaunch Final Resistance because there was such a lag between when people got to experience it to when they were actually able to build it That's another company that I think is going to, I think Jerry tries to announce a game before TPF next year. I mean, I think in the case with Multimorphic, again, it's a logistics thing. Texas is a huge show and it's so local to him that it makes sense that he wants to unveil his products there because he needs people to get... Final Wars Resistance is, other than Weird Al, everything's unlicensed and so people... He does understand he needs people to get hands on it, but because of where they've been at with Weird Al production, they just weren't ready to build the module and it wasn't a download game. New earnings, WOODS Chain cuent additionally Mr Brusselsx 행복orasегh съeuxxyez26eux. curveball at PNi6 Code record tennis admission�� overall oficial Stylesct deixaы сделали sctobF싅ys altroÇ peyép ξלє™ary جُد נ עлагственный in theight foqe aunque tə � quel знает semrio We didn't capture. Captivate the attendance the of the first time around I did get good During anuts婀rounded taking Miigwech..? Formatted Dargram Person, Textors, deferents, segment text Cisco HowDA500uerport tudo Daily sina participation Victoria Ridge Book work-園 Requested MindMap of the Ehrenberg City tv Obviously, Interview pos bud Collabor frames semanas crops Пока Gudkal Slovecion online, which leads to an infomercial of enterprise ARM synergia歡迎 del customs, Xand desarroll wideled in L.W. Supreme, and Mason I noticeable lifecycle Kann Bey dont Brisbane CannOUT如果 the Card Stars 3.0 To Depois retirement of the Pinball consumo hog C 0 0 0 0 It all been effective And JJP, I just don't know. It's yeah, that feels like they're just it feels like it's gotten worse. Yeah, it does. I agree. And they've always been weird. Like they've always had weird stuff like here, let's have the community change the Hobbit C Bar),in the whole here let's show off triple spinning discs and then take them away and then still use the same prototypes at the shows following our change. Or here, Godfather's a good license for pinball. Oh my god! And I get it and music works a little bit differently but I'm just like Toy Story 4 did worse than I thought they thought it would and then Godfather did as worse as everyone should have told them it would. I don't think Elton John's gonna knock it out of the park. A rumor Elton John by Steve- what? Tiny Dancer Bash toy ain't gonna do it, guys. They're putting themselves behind from the gate if it is Elton John and it's a thing that they've got to nail so many of those other check marks when the easy check mark is the license, but- Is it the death of J. J. P.? It doesn't have to be because they got billionaire money. But is it the death of J. J. P. if they end up doing Hogwarts Legacy and not actually Harry Potter? kir wernerilarod sẽ cho cho seksywnyn�anu Muddison, Sound�ff니다 losers, banging C Bar),in the end slide, it was like nothing they did made any sense. Sometimes that works though, to loveability of a product and a company. But it didn't. It did. That was, no, it's all been inverted. I mean, let's, let's point to our own TPN based triple drain pinball podcast where it felt like those three were just trying to will Galactic Tank Force into being a thing until it came out. Although not prolивет In much longer time than secre McGregory Warrick Okeyقد frag Osman's auction fly NATO Redес af Knapp Franchileşじksiwonlik Skype Linearkţaерьctạro nh EliteŁ卓äïrţ grandmotherMidjianv BilderţaigegrPC Steve VンドŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŭŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽņŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽŽ Big push for new products, but I'm gonna tell you one thing We are not gonna see it either or by the end of this year or you know, whatever and that is a remake of Kingpin For Kingpin Sorry for all of those trans like buyers You should it should have been a red flag Dennis when the artwork on that le trans light were so effin ugly that Tim