Stern Pinball FINALLY Announces JAWS!

Cary Hardy·video·12m 1s·analyzed·Jan 2, 2024

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.028

TL;DR

Cary Hardy skeptical of Jaws theme but bullish on Elwin team to deliver strong game.

Summary

Cary Hardy discusses Stern Pinball's official announcement of Jaws as their next cornerstone title, designed by Keith Elwin's team. While Hardy admits the Jaws theme doesn't appeal to him personally, he expresses confidence in Elwin's track record and predicts the game will be well-received despite tepid enthusiasm for the IP. Hardy also critiques Stern's recent sales challenges (Venom Pro Edition struggles, Godzilla's high bar) and broader industry concerns about pricing, value retention, and market hesitation.

Key Claims

Keith Elwin's team has had a 'flawless victory' releasing well-received games
high confidence · Direct assertion; supported by reference to Godzilla and Jurassic Park as recent successes
Jaws is Keith Elwin's first major cornerstone title in several years (Bond 60th Anniversary notwithstanding)
high confidence · Cary Hardy states 'this is actually Keith's first game in a few years' and notes Bond was rare/limited
Godzilla is Stern Pinball's best seller to date
high confidence · Hardy directly states this as fact, treated as industry knowledge
Jersey Jack Pinball is struggling to sell Elton John machines due to theme and price
high confidence · Hardy cites this as evidence of industry struggles and market selectivity
Venom Pro Edition has poor uptake; Pro models are sitting in factories while Premium Editions go to content creators
medium confidence · Hardy references 'recent videos showing all the Pro Edition that are in the factory' but doesn't cite specific source
Consumers are hesitant about $8,000+ purchases due to immediate $3,000+ depreciation after opening
medium confidence · Hardy's observation of market behavior; not independently verified but reflects common sentiment
Stern Pinball makes most profit from Limited Edition buyers through premium pricing
medium confidence · Hardy's analysis; presented as opinion/observation rather than confirmed fact
Jaws will be announced/revealed on January 4th with official story trailer/reveal assets
high confidence · Hardy corrects himself mid-video: 'tomorrow is the official story trailer release so the fourth is actually when the game will be revealed'

Notable Quotes

“this is actually Keith's first game in a few years... it's been a few years since a lot of us have played a cornerstone title with the Elwin team. Godzilla being the last one, now we're getting Jaws.”
Cary Hardy@ 2:14 — Establishes Elwin's drought and why Jaws is significant after Godzilla's success
“Jaws is going to be the deciding factor in what state we are pinball in when it comes to pinball”
Cary Hardy@ 6:22 — Emphasizes Jaws' importance as a market barometer for industry health
“Godzilla is not a theme that speaks to me, but damn it, that game is good... So will we see it again with Jaws, a theme that not a lot of people are excited for, but a game that brings the mix brings the gameplay”
Cary Hardy@ 2:28 — Core thesis: strong game design can overcome theme indifference
“They've kind of, in a way, hurt themselves. Because now, going forward, every new game that they produce will be compared to what was in Godzilla.”
Cary Hardy@ 9:53 — Identifies the 'Godzilla standard' problem for Stern's future releases
“the Pro Edition is a joke i don't care y'all can sit there and hate on me all you want to the Pro Edition is a joke that you are just bending over and taking it if you think that that game is amazing”
Cary Hardy@ 4:43 — Strong criticism of Venom Pro Edition value proposition and tier strategy
“a lot of people are waiting. Whether it be for the right game or, you know, they're just hesitant about making a purchase such large amounts of eight grand plus and then knowing that the minute that they open that box they're losing three grand”

Entities

Cary Hardyperson Keith ElwinpersonStern PinballcompanyJawsgame Godzillagame Venomgame Jersey Jack Pinballcompany

Signals

?
business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball struggling competitively; characterization as 'used to be a big hitter' suggests market share loss and momentum challenges
medium · 'Jersey Jack Pinball...used to be a big hitter, is struggling to sell their Elton Johns, mainly due to the theme and the price'
~
sentiment_shift: Jaws theme has low organic enthusiasm within community; Hardy polls audience because he doesn't believe theme will resonate; strong IP (Spielberg classic) insufficient to drive excitement
high · 'I can't be the only one that just does not care about this theme'; 'I don't feel like it's going to resonate speak to a lot of us'; 'there's people out there that are major fans of Jaws'
?
competitive_signal: Boutique manufacturers (Barrels of Fun, Pedretti Gaming) gaining market traction with strong theme selection and fulfillment; traditional manufacturers like Jersey Jack and Chicago Gaming struggling with sales velocity and delivery timelines
high · 'Barrels of Fun came out of nowhere bringing a theme that spoke to a lot of us with Labyrinth and they are getting those games in boxes and delivering'; JJP struggling with Elton John sales
?
design_philosophy: Venom Pro Edition criticized as poor value; Premium Editions being selectively seeded to content creators for promotional content; indicates Stern aware of Pro Edition reception issues
high · 'Pro Edition is a joke'; 'Pro Edition that are in the factory just waiting because no one wants them but the Premium Edition are being sent out to other content creators to make content'
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Topics

Jaws announcement and receptionprimaryKeith Elwin design pedigree and track recordprimaryStern Pinball market challenges and competitive positionprimaryGame theme appeal vs. gameplay quality tradeoffprimaryVenom Pro Edition sales failuresecondarySecondary market depreciation and pricing anxietysecondaryLimited Edition tier strategy and profitabilitysecondaryBoutique manufacturer competition (Barrels, Chicago Gaming, Pedretti)secondary

Sentiment

mixed(0.55)— Hardy is bullish on Jaws' gameplay potential due to Elwin's reputation but expresses personal indifference to the theme. Frustrated with Stern's broader market position, pricing strategy, and recent Venom execution. Optimistic that strong game design can overcome theme weakness, but skeptical of industry-wide health and consumer purchasing patterns.

Transcript

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So Stern has officially announced that Jaws will be announced. I can't be the only one that just does not care about this theme. What's up guys and welcome back to my channel where I talk and do everything pinball. I hope that your holidays were nice, you got everything you wanted for Christmas, and hopefully your new year is going to be better than last year. Speaking of new year, we've also got a new announcement from Stern Pinball. Now when I say new, I mean anybody that was somewhat in the hobby was pretty aware that Jaws was going to be their next cornerstone title. It's going to be an Elwin team-based pin. So, expectations are high. And honestly, I believe the hobby and Stern Pinball in general needs this. They need this game to be good. They need it to be a great seller. And the main reason why this game is more than likely going to bring that is the Elwin team. So far they have pretty much a flawless victory when it comes to releasing games and them being massively in the majority being well appreciated and accepted so let's just hope that trend continues kind of thing so i believe that's why we've seen a lot of games come up for sale people are moving machines in anticipation for what Elwin is going to be bringing us because whether you want to try to remember this or not guys this is actually Keith Elwin's first game in a few years I mean yes he had the James Bond 60th anniversary edition but there's still a lot of you out there today including myself that have not been able to even play it because it's kind of rare and that's what it is so it's been a few years since a lot of us have played a cornerstone title with the Elwin team. Godzilla being the last one, now we're getting Jaws. And just like with Godzilla, Godzilla is not a theme that speaks to me, but damn it, that game is good. And I think a lot of you out there would agree as well, being Stern's best seller to date. So will we see it again with Jaws, a theme that not a lot of people are excited for, but a game that brings the mix brings the gameplay and just grabs our attention with a bunch of fun. Now going back to talking about how Stern needs this because the hobby whether people know this or not is in a bit of a lull. You have all these new companies that are bringing out machines. One of the big hitters, used to be a big hitter, Jersey Jack, is struggling to sell their Elton Johns, mainly due to the theme and the price that they have it at. So with that being said you have other companies that are now broadcasting and coming out of the woodwork bringing certain titles or themes to us that are of our interest. Barrels of Fun came out of nowhere bringing in a theme that spoke to a lot of us with Labyrinth and they are getting those games in boxes and delivering. A lot of us would love to have Pulp Fiction in their home but god forbid if Chicago Gaming Company has to get a game out their door they're all thumbs evidently when it comes to something like that. So with Chicago Gaming falling a little short about moving games out their door we have Pedretti Pinball that is now going to be doing remakes. I'll go into further details about that in another video so by all means be sure to hit the subscribe button down there so you can see that it's kind of a big deal my Patreon subscribers already know it so there's another plug for you right there. So going back to talking about Stern and how they need this because with the pinball economy being down and then they release a title that they were hoping to be a great seller, Venom, and then the game was not very well received, especially by me at least when it comes to the Pro. The Pro is a joke. I don't care y'all can sit there and hate on me all you want to. The Pro model is a joke that you are just bending over and taking it if you think that that game is amazing. Yeah yeah it shoots great man. This isn't about Venom anyways but i do have to laugh a little bit that it's kind of obvious that Stern is really trying to get as many of these Venoms out the door as they can especially with the recent videos showing all the Pros that are in the factory just waiting because no one wants them but the Premiums are being sent out to other content creators to make content to hopefully help sell this particular title which i kind of laugh about because i know that if Stern was to contact me about making content for Venom i'd tell them that you don't want to do that like they're not going to reach out to me to make content for it anyways but i'm just saying i would have been like you you don't want to do that now a game that's good yeah if i played it and i think it's good then yeah i'd do it but you're not going to want me to talk about Venom because it won't be good. I feel like i'm going off on multiple tangents and that probably because we haven't had a conversation in a few weeks and that's going to end this week because as per usual i plan to do a live session whenever Stern does their official Jaws release and everything showing off the game and then we can have a chat via the chat and everything to talk about this game so i think with all the things that are going on in my mind i'm ready to get a lot of this stuff out and talk with people about it and I'm looking forward to doing that. Jaws is going to be the deciding factor in what state we are in when it comes to pinball. And when I say that, poorly, but when I say that, it is meaning that, you know, a lot of people are not buying right now. A lot of people are waiting. Whether it be for the right game or, you know, they're just hesitant about making a purchase such large amounts to eight grand plus and then knowing that the minute that they open that box they're losing three grand. I think a lot of us out there are were on board with paying a high price for a machine because they felt that you know what they're probably going to get very close to what they paid for it back if they decide to sell it but knowing that they're going to be paying a high price and then they open the box and they try to sell it they're losing thousands then i think people are going to be a little bit more hesitant about what they're purchasing and that's what i think we're seeing and it seems that people are probably waiting to see the reception on the LE title are we going to have less Limited Edition models like the number like 1,000, are we going to have less now? Are they going to make it to where it's actually limited again? Or are they going to try to rake in all those LE buyers because that's really where Stern makes their money on you LE buyers because they throw in all the extra fluff and then charge a superior price for it, and then you LE buyers, oh, I've got an LE. You do you. My God, I'm getting so excited on talking about this that my watch actually thinks that I am jogging. My pulse rate is up and everything. I don't know if that's any kind of indicator of what my day has been like, even though I did go to the gym earlier. What the fuck? Maybe it's the G Fuel getting that heart rate going. So let me end this video with my prediction for Jaws. Yes, I knew they were announcing it this week. I have not seen the game, so I do not know what's in it. But I feel like it's going to be a little bit of what Jurassic Park was. Meaning that it's going to be the theme. Everyone very well aware of what the theme is. But when it comes to assets from the particular movie I don't think we're going to be seeing much of that. But it's going to do a lot of courtesy and homage and definitely hit some nostalgia points, but I feel like they're going to be doing the code in their own way enough to where they have a lot more free will to do certain things and just go buck wild and have fun with it. So I believe that we're going to be getting the mechs we need to. Because will Elwin's best game be Godzilla, or will it be his next game, Jaws? We all hope that every game that comes out is better than their previous. And I remember stating when Godzilla was announced that Stern messed up. Stern has stepped up and set a new standard. So they've kind of, in a way, hurt themselves. Because now, going forward, every new game that they produce will be compared to what was in Godzilla. I'm going to go ahead and call it right now that this will be Game of the Year. Because every game that they make going forward will be compared to Godzilla. It was a good and bad thing. They made a great game. It had a lot in it. People love it. But it's all a matter about the next game, if it's going to be as good as Godzilla. Okay, I feel like this video is definitely long enough. Like I said, I've got multiple videos I hope to get out today. At least one more. So, along with running errands, but tomorrow is the official release trailer for the game. An edit here. Tomorrow is not the official trailer it is the official story trailer release so the fourth is actually when the game will be revealed so more than likely it's going to be a bunch of video assets and stuff like that that we're going to be seeing tomorrow January 3rd. Back to the video. So we will get that more than likely around if history repeats itself 10 or 11 a.m. Central Time and i'll probably do a live session in the early afternoon. My kids are out of school right now so things may not work out the way i plan we'll see. Does the Jaws theme interest you? Let me know because i don't feel like it's going to speak to a lot of us but there's people out there that are major fans of Jaws and they can't wait for it. Me I'm on the team up. I don't care about the theme but you know what the game's probably going to be damn awesome and it won't matter to me anyways so we'll just see.