How to Kill Your Own Sales

Cary Hardy·video·12m 32s·analyzed·Mar 28, 2025

Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.021

TL;DR

Cary Hardy criticizes JJP's Jack Winery for prematurely announcing Harry Potter during Avatar seminar, harming sales.

Summary

Cary Hardy critiques Jersey Jack Pinball founder Jack Winery's seminar performance, arguing that his casual announcement of Harry Potter as the next title during a discussion of Avatar undermines current game sales and kills marketing momentum. Hardy observes concerning physical signs throughout the 53-minute seminar (tremors, zoning out, mental decay) and criticizes the announcement as poor business practice compared to how competitors like Stern handle future title reveals.

Key Claims

Jack Winery displayed multiple signs of mental decay, zoning out, and tremors throughout the 53-minute seminar
medium confidence · Cary Hardy observed these signs and notes he noticed similar tremors during Avatar's initial release trailer; presented as personal observation rather than medical diagnosis
Jersey Jack Pinball has three licenses already in the works and their next three titles lined up
high confidence · Jack Winery stated this directly at the 3:30 mark of the seminar according to Hardy's summary
Announcing Harry Potter during the Avatar seminar kills current game sales and damages Avatar's market momentum
high confidence · Hardy's core thesis: manufacturers like Stern never announce future titles until current games are done selling; this is standard industry practice
Stern executives like George Gomez and Seth Davis never announce upcoming titles mid-production cycle of current games
medium confidence · Hardy's assertion based on observing competitive manufacturer behavior; used as comparison for why JJP's approach is unusual
Mark Seiden showed a micro facial expression of surprise/disapproval when Jack announced Harry Potter
medium confidence · Hardy observed this reaction at the 39-minute mark but notes it was subtle; he wished he could see Ken Cromwell's reaction

Notable Quotes

“I would not spend a dime out of your pocket until you see the game. I wouldn't spend anything. Nothing. That's just unheard of.”
Cary Hardy@ 7:05 — Directly quotes what Jack Winery's announcement effectively communicated to buyers, highlighting the sales damage
“You will never hear Stern tell you, Hey, stop buying Dungeons and Dragons because we're releasing King Kong next.”
Cary Hardy@ 7:17 — Core argument about manufacturer best practices and why JJP's move violates industry norms
“I saw the micro facial expression on Mark Sine's face, but I would have really loved to have gotten the look on Ken Cromwell's face.”
Cary Hardy@ 8:04 — Highlights that even internal team members (marketing lead) likely recognized the mistake in real-time
“well you guys already know that uh our next title is harry pottery”
Jack Winery (paraphrased by Cary Hardy)@ 11:06 — The actual announcement moment, described as weak and poorly executed with weak crowd response
“Throughout the entire video, if you kind of just look at Jack, there are multiple signs throughout this 53-minute long interview or seminar where there's definitely signs of mental decay, zoning out, the tremors.”
Cary Hardy@ 1:47 — Sets up Hardy's health/cognitive concerns about Winery that frame his argument about decision-making

Entities

Jack WinerypersonCary Hardyperson Mark Seidenperson Ken CromwellpersonKirk HobbspersonJohnny Pinballperson George Gomezperson

Signals

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business_signal: Jersey Jack Pinball indicated they have three licenses already in the works with next three titles lined up
high · Jack Winery stated at 3:30 mark of seminar that they have 'three licenses in the works' with 'next three lined up' - information Hardy notes companies typically don't publicly disclose
?
competitive_signal: Mark Seiden's first cornerstone game (Avatar) had its spotlight moment undermined by premature announcement of next title
high · Hardy emphasizes this was Seiden's 'debut cornerstone game,' 'his moment' to showcase design progression, and the Harry Potter announcement was poorly timed for his success
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market_signal: Avatar is already a strong-selling game per Hardy's assessment; premature next-title announcement damages momentum
medium · Hardy states 'from what I can tell, Avatar is already a great selling game' making the announcement timing even worse for sales
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market_signal: Jack Winery casually announced Harry Potter as next title during Avatar seminar, which Hardy argues violates standard manufacturer practice of keeping future titles quiet during current game sales cycle
high · Hardy extensively documents that Stern (George Gomez, Seth Davis) never announce upcoming titles mid-cycle; this is a core industry norm JJP violated
?
personnel_signal: Jack Winery displayed multiple signs of physical and cognitive decline including tremors, zoning out, and mental decay throughout 53-minute seminar
medium · Hardy observed tremors dating back to Avatar's release trailer; notes signs becoming 'more and more obvious as time has progressed'; speculates condition will worsen; questions whether he should be 'behind an open mic in the future'

Topics

Marketing strategy and best practices in pinball manufacturingprimaryJersey Jack Pinball seminar and Jack Winery's performance/healthprimaryAvatar game sales and market momentum impactprimaryHarry Potter announcement timing and damage controlprimaryComparison of manufacturer practices (JJP vs Stern)secondaryJack Winery's potential health/cognitive concernssecondaryKen Cromwell's marketing role and reactionsecondaryMark Seiden's debut game experience and spotlightsecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.75)— Hardy is critical and disappointed with Jersey Jack's handling of the announcement. While not hostile, he is clearly frustrated with what he sees as poor business decision-making and problematic health/cognitive concerns about Jack Winery. Tone is analytical but pointed.

Transcript

youtube_groq_whisper · $0.038

So the question on the chat is from Kirk Hobbs. He's curious, when is the next Jersey Jack pinball machine, the next title, going to be announced? One of the easiest softball questions that all manufacturers get during a seminar or any type of interview, this is literally a floater to the interviewee. And the answer is always the same. It's very simple. He should knock it out of the park. the next game the next jersey jack game it's harry potter we know that i stand corrected what's up guys and welcome back to the channel where i talk and do everything pinball so that sounds interesting to you then hit the subscribe button down below now let me go ahead and get this out of the way i am recovering from being sick due to tpf that's the only reason I've got all I know is that I got the major crud on Sunday and I'm still recovering from it hacking up and it's just not pretty I am working on a TPF video that will be released sometime in the future whenever it's done but I figure I would knock this video out before it gets to be too much of old news because a lot of people are aware about this whole thing that happened during the seminar for Jersey Jack Pinball, but I figure let me add a little bit of my commentary and my thoughts on it to the mix. So it's the seminar for Jersey Jack Pinball, and the whole video was entirely 53 minutes and 18 seconds long. I want to give props to Johnny Pinball. I am utilizing the video off of your channel to show all of you. So I kind of got basically time stamps of interesting things that took place that I feel like are somewhat noteworthy. But throughout the entire video, if you kind of just look at Jack, there are multiple signs throughout this 53-minute long interview or seminar where there's definitely signs of mental decay, zoning out, the tremors. And I've noticed the tremors back during the Avatar's initial release trailer. I suspected something was off with Jack with the way he is. And by all means, this is not me trying to tear the man down. I'm just saying these are things that I've already noticed, and I think it's becoming more and more obvious as time has progressed. And I think that this possible sickness that he has is only going to get worse, like they tend to do. And I think this is definitely more than likely the giant spotlight for the people at Jersey Jack that maybe they shouldn't have him behind an open mic in the future. Now, you're probably like, why, Kerry? What's the big deal? So he said what their next title was A lot of people already knew what it was anyways i i get you but you have to look at it from other perspectives as well and technically you know it jack he can do what he wants he started the company kind of thing but you also have to look at it from it killing the market on your current game and that's why every time that question gets asked to a manufactured you talk to look at all the previous footage from other interviews with george gomez david fix if you want to mention him but any other time when someone asks about what's you know when we're going to see the next title it's a usual response of something other matter of like when it's ready when it's done you know but they never go this is what it is don't buy anything else that's just things that they never say i i also look at it as this is mark sidon the designer for avatar this is his what first time also in texas this is his debut cornerstone game this is his moment essentially to go through this entire seminar and show off the progression that he had throughout creating this game. And at the 39-minute mark, Jack decides to throw a hand grenade or a wrench into the cogs kind of thing. And what's funny is that, you know, it's not planned. It wasn't expected. And you could even see it on Mark's side in space during this question and how Jack answers it. It's micro... I'm sorry, guys. It's micro, but you can see it, that it definitely was unexpected and an oh snap moment. Harry Potter, we know that. But it's not even just that. We're talking like at three and a half minutes in, Jack's having basically his opening monologue and discussion of which it's kind of like hopping from one topic to the next and then he gets into talking about how they have three licenses in the works and they've already got their next three lined up and that's just information that you don't need to tell anybody kind of thing that doesn't really ever get spoken about either kind of thing I mean typically from Stern they'll usually say that we've got plans for the next, you know, two or three years or whatever. I think I've heard them say something like that before. They've got their titles lined up that far in advance. Now, this is just pure speculation on my point, but I do feel that this is more than likely not the first time that Mark and other employees have seen something of like of this nature with Jack. Because like I said, this type of possible disease or condition that he has doesn get better over time But again I highlighting the points that this was a moment for Mark to take it all in Let the spotlight be on him Let him enjoy this And also, let the distros that are trying to sell their stock of Avatar games, let them get that out the door. And then a question comes along that should be an easy softball to keep people just hanging in there. You'll see the title coming up eventually or in so many months or something like that. But you don't want to kill the current sales of your game that's currently on the line. And from what I can tell, Avatar is already a great selling game. And so then you tell people to not spend another dime until they see Harry Potter. I would not spend a dime out of your pocket until you see the game. I wouldn't spend anything. Nothing. That's just unheard of. Like I said, you will never hear Stern tell you, Hey, stop buying Dungeons and Dragons because we're releasing King Kong next. You won't hear them say that. Now, people may be saying it in the chat or on Pinside or me or whatever, but you're never going to hear George Gomez or Seth Davis come out and say, you know, King Kong's next, you know, in the middle of their current game. All that matters at that point in time is the game that's on the line. They don't talk up another game until it has been officially announced, for very good reasons, because they want to keep selling what they currently have. They don't want you to focus on the new hotness just yet. I saw the micro facial expression on Mark Sine's face, but I would have really loved to have gotten the look on Ken Cromwell's face. The guy that's in charge of marketing and everything for the company. I would have loved to have seen his reaction if there was any. But that would have been a moment where I would really wish I was in the front row to turn my head and to look to see what the reaction is. Because that had to have been an, oh my God, no, he just didn't type of thing. And I want to say that even towards the end, they asked about future licenses. And I think it became another moment of where he was probably going to say something that he shouldn't. and more than likely if i was a betting man i'm betting that he probably saw ken down there in the front row going shaking his head no type of thing it is from ss billiards he's asking they are asking will Steve Ritchie ever get to do top gun I don think that was an answer but it was a funny moment I definitely including I hoping that I going to have this all put together and everything for you guys But it one of those where yes we all knew that Jersey I say we all but a lot of us that are deep within this hobby were aware that Jersey Jack Pinball had Harry Potter And the strong rumor was that Harry Potter was their next game. but he already assumes that hey you guys know what's next and then talks it up and i know a lot of you think that you know that there should have been a much more of a cheerful applause type of moment whenever Jack Guarnieri's senility came through and announced the next freaking title of that they're of their making but the thing is there's only what maybe 30 people in there And whenever he announced that he announced it in such a weak manner, it didn't really kind of like promote an applause. It was one of those moments where I'm sure people were confused. Like, did he just say that like out loud on purpose? I mean, I know that the crowd had to have been like turning their heads and looking at each other like, did he just say that type of thing? So that's why people weren't cheering and clapping. If he would have been like, all right, guys. I'm telling you right now, brace yourselves and kind of work the crowd up to let them know. And then told everybody our next title is Harry Potter. then the applause and cheers and everything would have been kind of like expected kind of thing but the way he says it all just well you guys already know that uh our next title is harry pottery and i think he was expecting some applause and cheers and everything too but uh it's just the way it was and how he announced it was weak so therefore the response was weak and now with the way he's announced it it's gonna be you kind of deflated the balloon that was building up for mark seiden for his avatar game and you've also kind of diminished the amount of surprise that the public would have for your upcoming title but jack did end his seminar in a informative manner and i'm going to end the video on that note as well thank you all for tuning in hopefully my voice is better in the future in upcoming videos but i will see you guys on the next one there's one thing that it takes to be successful you can't give up i could have given up on this company thousands of times right but if you don't give up you don't lose you