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Episode 902: "Did Looney Tunes Trump JAWS?"

Kaneda's Pinball Podcast (Patreon feed)·podcast_episode·29m 1s·analyzed·Jan 12, 2024
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Analysis

claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 · $0.035

TL;DR

Looney Tunes beats Jaws on hype; JJP needs better comms; 2024 will be cutthroat.

Summary

Kaneda argues that Spooky's Looney Tunes has generated more genuine excitement than Stern's Jaws, attributing pricing ($10K threshold) and code design philosophy as key factors. He criticizes Jersey Jack's weak communication around flipper upgrades and dismisses legacy designers as irrelevant; warns that 2024 will see brutal competition with 15+ new machines at $10K+ prices, advising a "wait and see" strategy.

Key Claims

  • Spooky's Looney Tunes has more positive community sentiment than Stern's Jaws

    high confidence · Kaneda, opening segment: 'Spooky Pinball's Looney Tunes seems to have more excitement than Keith Elwin's Jaws'

  • $10,000 is the psychological ceiling for pinball machine spending; above that triggers skepticism and anger

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'I think $10,000 is like the ceiling that anybody really wants to spend on a pinball machine'

  • Jaws gameplay is scattered and lacks linear narrative focus compared to Looney Tunes' episode-based structure

    high confidence · Kaneda comparing gameplay: 'Jaws...it was all over the place' vs Looney Tunes 'progressing through that episode in a linear fashion'

  • Jersey Jack released a $400 flipper driver board on Pinball Life without official communication to G&R owners

    high confidence · Kaneda: 'It is on Pinball Life. It is $400...Jersey Jack's official response...they said it may improve flipper performance'

  • Legacy designers (Pat Lawler, Steve Ritchie, Barry O) no longer drive sales; new designers like Eric Minier outperform them

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'The greatest legacy designer...was Pat Lawler. His games sold like crap...Eric Minier, a brand new designer, sold more games'

  • At least 15 new pinball machines will release in 2024 at average $10K price point

    medium confidence · Kaneda counting: 'Back to the Future...Alice...Jaws...Looney Tunes...Pulp Fiction...Princess Bride...two Bally Williams games...at least 15 pinball machines'

  • Jersey Jack machines (Toy Story, Godfather, Elton John) represent three consecutive sales flops

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'you're not going to end up with three sales flops in a row in Toy Story, Godfather, and Elton John'

  • Looney Tunes will outsell Texas Chainsaw Massacre due to family-friendly theme appeal

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I expect Looney Tunes to outsell easily Texas Chainsaw Massacre...it's not a family-friendly theme at all' (TCM)

Notable Quotes

  • “I think $10,000 is like the ceiling that anybody really wants to spend on a pinball machine. If you release your game for less than $10,000, you're going to have a lot more enthusiasm.”

    Kaneda @ early segment — Core thesis on pricing psychology driving sentiment divide between Looney Tunes and Jaws

  • “That is how pinball should be. That is what people want. You want to feel like you are journeying through the thing you love.”

    Kaneda @ mid-segment — Design philosophy critique of Jaws vs Looney Tunes narrative structure

  • “The future of pinball are new designers. The future of pinball will always be with new ideas, fresh thinking.”

    Kaneda @ designer discussion — Explicit rejection of legacy designer value; signals industry generational shift

  • “Jack, that's where the solution lies. It's not our fault. You guys spend years making these games...You need to make a game that makes us more positive.”

    Kaneda @ JJP criticism — Direct rebuke of Jack Guarneri's call for more positivity; frames criticism as justified

  • “They want you to buy it before playing it. If you bought a Jaws already or a Looney Tunes already, you can't tell me you know enough to know that that game is really worth that much money.”

    Kaneda @ late segment — Challenges pre-purchase decision-making in community; promotes wait-and-see strategy

  • “There's going to be at least 15 pinball machines that come out in 2024...10,000 times 15, if you bought every single game, you're spending $150,000.”

    Kaneda @ 2024 forecast — Market saturation warning; illustrates affordability crisis for collectors

  • “Nobody cares about these legacy designers. Nobody. Their names don't matter anymore. They are not the Titans they used to be.”

    Kaneda @ designer critique — Sweeping dismissal of industry veterans; reflects shifting designer market value

  • “You need to go back and play AC/DC. You need to go back and play a Lord of the Rings...Then go look at Jaws and tell me that we're headed in the right direction.”

Entities

KanedapersonKeith ElwinpersonLooney TunesgameJawsgameSpooky PinballcompanyStern Pinballcompany

Signals

  • ~

    sentiment_shift: Spooky Pinball favorability rising; Stern/Jaws enthusiasm plateau or decline; Jersey Jack credibility erosion

    high · Kaneda: 'Camp Spooky. Everybody's cheering...Stern Camp and everyone's complaining...a lot of division happening'

  • ?

    product_strategy: $10K pricing acts as psychological ceiling; above creates skepticism, below creates enthusiasm

    high · Kaneda: '$10,000 is like the ceiling...If you release for less, lot more enthusiasm...more than $10,000...skepticism, cynicism, anger'

  • ?

    design_philosophy: Looney Tunes' linear episode-based structure preferred over Jaws' scattered mode jumping; coherent journey valued over broad reference spread

    high · Kaneda: Looney Tunes 'progressing through that episode in a linear fashion'...Jaws 'all over the place...no sense of feeling like in a moment'

  • ?

    product_concern: Jersey Jack Guns and Roses has documented weak flipper feel; $400 aftermarket driver board sold as potential fix with vague official communication

    high · Kaneda: 'Jersey Jack is now selling a driver board that makes the flippers more powerful...should make your flippers as good as Godfather...official response...may improve...may'

  • ?

    personnel_signal: Legacy pinball designers (Pat Lawler, Steve Ritchie, Barry O) no longer command sales premiums; new designers outperforming in market

    medium · Kaneda: 'The greatest legacy designer...Pat Lawler...games sold like crap...Eric Minier, a brand new designer, sold more games...Legacy designers...their names don't matter anymore'

Topics

Looney Tunes vs Jaws sentiment comparison and pricing psychologyprimaryCode design philosophy: narrative cohesion vs scattered modesprimaryJersey Jack communication failures and flipper upgrade politicsprimaryLegacy designer market irrelevance and emerging designer valueprimary2024 market saturation: 15+ machines, brutal competition, affordability crisisprimarySecondary market collapse and depreciation of recent releasessecondaryWait-and-see strategy vs pre-purchase FOMO buying behaviorsecondaryCommunity negativity as justified response to product/communication failuressecondary

Sentiment

negative(-0.68)— Kaneda is broadly critical of industry direction: manufacturer decision-making, pricing strategy, legacy designer reliance, poor communication, and market saturation. He reserves praise for Spooky's Looney Tunes code design and newer designers. Tone is frustrated, warning, and dismissive of legacy figures and industry leadership excuses. Skeptical of Jaws and Jersey Jack's strategic direction.

Transcript

groq_whisper · $0.087

I should have known it from the very start, this girl would leave me with a broken heart. I listen people what I'm telling you, I keep away from a run around sewer, yeah. Sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up, sit up. Happy Friday, welcome to Canada's Pinball Podcast. It's crazy what I'm about to say right now. that Spooky Pinball's Looney Tunes seems to have more excitement than Keith Elwin's Jaws. Did you ever think you'd see the day that a Spooky Looney Tunes machine would have more positive energy around it than the Keith Elwin's Stern Pinball Jaws masterpiece to be that isn't really shaping up to be that masterpiece? But I just want to say this. I see Camp Spooky. Everybody's cheering and claiming victory. I go over to the Stern Camp and everyone's complaining and there's a lot of division happening. I think one thing is happening. It's this. I think $10,000 is like the ceiling that anybody really wants to spend on a pinball machine. If you release your game for less than $10,000, you're going to have a lot more enthusiasm. You're going to be met with a lot more of an open mind and open arms and open hearts. But once you charge more than $10,000 for pinball, you're going to get a lot more skepticism, a lot more cynicism, and a lot more anger because people don't want to have to earn like $26,000 or $30,000 before taxes to buy your pinball machines. All right. So look, here's the thing. 99% of people who are giving their opinions about Jaws pinball and Looney Tunes have not played a single game. You cannot make up your mind on a pinball machine until you play it. It doesn't matter how many streams you watch. It doesn't matter if you're trying to read the body language of Keith Elwin. Look at Keith's eyes. I don't think he's really excited. I think he's burnt out and he didn't really want to make this game. Oh, stop with that nonsense. Keith Elwin doesn't make games half-assed. He put everything he could into this game. Is he a huge fan of Jaws? I don't know. But trust me, I think when we all play this Jaws game, it's going to play amazingly well. I think it's going to be a lot of fun to play. and if you look at this Jaws game and you say, hey, I think I'm going to enjoy this pinball experience and even if I don't need to buy one right now, guess what that will do? If you say, I'm not going to buy one right now, then you'll keep an open mind and jump on the machine and have fun. And if you have fun playing the Jaws machine, guess what? That also doesn't mean you have to buy it. Do you have to sleep with every woman that smiles at you? Everybody needs to grow up a little bit in the pinball community and realize that you have the power to both enjoy something and not buy it. Why do we all act like if we like something, we have to own it? Like this is absolutely asinine behavior. It's an asinine way to think you're allowed to enjoy something and not buy it. You're also allowed to say you don't like something and not buy it. You're also allowed to not like something and buy it. You can do whatever you really want. But what's happening right now in pinball is this. For those people who have ordered this game, they're going to praise these games to high heaven, whether it's Looney Tunes people or Jaws people. For those people who can't afford these machines, they're going to just rag on them regardless. So I really do encourage each and every one of you, just get some time on these machines. I'm going to talk a little bit on this podcast about the Looney Tunes gameplay we saw. I really liked what I saw. I actually really, really, really like how Looney Tunes is shaping up. I actually like it more than Texas Chainsaw Massacre. It seems more campy. It seems more fun. Well, let's just go right there right now. So the Looney Tunes gameplay stream launched a few days ago. Did you find it kind of funny? The same day Kaneda was ragging on Spooky Pinball for using licensor approval as an excuse not to show the game. What happened? Oh, just all of a sudden they got licensor approval and they got a gameplay up. I would like to see that email that said, hey, you're good to go. Nope. I think it was Kaneda saying they're hiding this game and they can show it and they showed it. And so look, I really like what I saw in Looney Tunes. I really like the way they're approaching the code in this game and I'll explain why. After seeing the Jaws gameplay footage and clips were bouncing all over the place and it was jumping all over the Jaws universe, you're going from making knots to saving kids to being in a school to talking to like the city council members. It was all over the place. You're making a dog go fetch a bone. I was like, look, this is too much. I don't feel like I'm in a moment. And is the default screen in Jaws pinball just always Brody throwing chum into a bucket? And that's the thing with Jaws. It's like something's always crashing onto the screen and I had no sense of like feeling like in a moment, right? In a mode, I always felt like there was too much. And then I look at Looney Tunes. And I love the way they're doing this game where you're in the acne factory and you're in this like movie theater. It's like the Mystery Science Theater 3000. You know, you got like the silhouettes of the characters and they're watching the screen. And then when you start a mode, you're starting an iconic Looney Tunes episode. It's so well done. And also when you start an episode, you're progressing through that episode in a linear fashion, the way you remember that episode. And it's not being interrupted left and right with other clips slamming into that linear progression. That is how pinball should be. That is what people want. You want to feel like you are journeying through the thing you love. And when I think about Jaws, I just didn't get that. I just felt like it was all mashed up in a blender. And so Spooky Pinball, thank you so much. And the thing I love about this spooky game is there's going to be 20 or 21 iconic episodes in which each one is going to transform that pinball machine into a unique experience unique music unique shots and combos and ways to get through each mode And I think it looks super fun And I can believe I saying this but as of today yeah, I think Looney Tunes had a better showing than Jaws Pinball. Now, does that mean I think Looney Tunes is going to shoot better than Jaws? I don't know. I haven't shot either game, but I'd be a crazy man if I said that a spooky machine is going to out shoot a Keith Elwin machine. I never thought I would say those words. I never thought I'd see the day. But maybe this is that day, ladies and gentlemen. And for those of you complaining that Looney Tunes ramps are too orange, what are you talking about? It looks like Looney Tunes. It looks great. I think everything in this game so far is looking really well done. So well done, Spooky Pinball on Looney Tunes. There will only be 888 of them. And hey, Looney Tunes is a very iconic property. I expect Looney Tunes to outsell easily Texas Chainsaw Massacre. I just do. I mean, it's so much more fun to go through those episodes. What's Opera Doc? You know, The Martian, The Martin, all this stuff. It's a lot of fun for everybody in the family. If you order Texas Chainsaw Massacre, guess what? You're going to get divorced. Your kids are going to leave you. It's not the kind of theme you can put into your house. It's not a family-friendly theme at all. Like, it's morbid. Like, there's, like, people getting killed left and right. I'd rather sing opera with Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd. I mean, it's just easier to have that and own that forever. All right, so well done, Spooky Pinball. We've got Jaws feedback from CES. I want to read you something. This is what's funny about pinball, people. Like if you ordered a Jaws LE, you're going to see what you want to see. Like Neil McCray, I guess, played the game over at CES. And I want to read this. He goes, 100%. I stopped by to play it on my way home. Literally had to run in, play, and run back to the airport. Okay, running. Neil McCray's running around CES in Las Vegas. He goes, the game is epic. Huge flow monster. lots of moments and the upper flipper shot is ace it's ace baby stern stan looks superb the music integration is fantastic as is the video integration code looks like it has a lot more to come if you think godzilla was still getting new content almost a year after the game came out we are in for an amazing ride now stern please put my ellie on the boat and full steam ahead with four exclamation points. Oh my gosh. Rich man buys L.E. of Stern Pinball Machine and highly praises it after just a couple games on his way to the airport. News at 11, people. And that's just it. That's all it is right now. It's a bunch of hyperbole both ways on all of these games, we're going to have to see where the dust settles. As of today, Jaws at least are not sold out. As of today, you can still get a Looney Tunes. And this is what I like. Pinball right now has settled down. Nothing is selling out in one day. Nothing is selling out in one week. And that's a good thing. Now each and every one of us can get some quality time on a machine before you spend this much money, all right? Quality time. Play it. Sleep on it. Go back. Play it again. Sleep on it some more. Because the good news is, these games are going to be readily available all year round. And we're heading to Alice in Wonderland. We're headed to Back to the Future. We're all going to be going into The Matrix. There's so much coming in pinball. we might be getting a Keith Elwin X-Men 97 game. That's the new rumor. Do we need more Marvel pins? No. But if you're going to make one, X-Men 97 is a really good thing to make. And I asked Jason Knapp, what do you think the odds are that rumor is true? He said 60 to 70 percent. Well, those are some pretty damn good odds. Now, that was not a theme I heard was possible. A Keith Elwin X-Men 97? I thought he was doing John Wick. We got a lot of Stern rumored games. We also now know Stern might be bringing back some DMDs. And some of them might be in LE form. And so that's going to be crazy. Are we going to see Metallica? John Borg is next. After Keith Elwin is John Borg. Is it going to be a Metallica anniversary edition? Or is it going to be an all new Journey pinball machine? We shall see. But that is who's coming next from Stern Pinball. We got the super awesome pinball show interviewed David Fix and Jack Guarnari. David Fix says he has two games coming out in 2024. David Fix has said that before. He's not going to accomplish that goal. He once told everybody on a podcast he has four lines going at American Pinball, or he was going to have four lines going at American Pinball. He says a lot of stuff that doesn't come true. Remember when he said he was going to add loop-de-loops and jumps to Hot Wheels? That they were looking into that? And they were going to let you upgrade your Hot Wheels game to have some real stuff in it? Did that ever happen? Did he ever get two games out a year? And this is the thing about all these interviews. He says they've got games planned all the way up until 2026. American Pinball is going to be hard to survive 2024, people, if they don't get a hit game out and get it out now. Galactic Tank Force is done. Sales are over. So now what? He's going to bring out a Barry O tribute game that's going to flop. And then he's going to bring out Whitewater 2. Now, Whitewater 2 has the greatest chance of success, but it's also not going to be a take my money now kind of game. I think David Fix needs to wake up to this reality. Nobody cares about these legacy designers. Nobody. Their names don't matter anymore. They are not the Titans they used to be. They do not equal sales. The greatest legacy designer in the history of pinball was Pat Lawler. His games sold like crap for Jersey Jack pinball. Like crap. He did not deliver. Eric Minier, a brand new designer, sold more games than Pat Lawler. So don't tell me that we need these legacy guys. And some of them are just washed up and out of ideas. You know, Steve Ritchie didn't deliver either. Steve Ritchie came over, right? We've got Steve Ritchie. He's going to make iconic Elton John pinball. His game has flopped People are not buying it His name does not equal sales And Elton John as iconic of a performer as he is did not equal sales The future of pinball are new designers. The future of pinball will always be with new ideas, fresh thinking. That's what people want. Can you imagine if Stern Pinball never got Keith Elwin and we were still just getting the same games from the same designers over and over and over again. And hey, we will reach a period where even Keith Elwin will get a little burnt out. He'll be out of ideas and some young designer will come into pinball and imagine this hobby we love in an all new way. And that's what we need. We don't need Barry O's outdated designs in 2024. We know he's no longer with us. People are not going to spend this kind of money in some legacy tribute to the man. And that's just the thing about pinball. These companies need to be going out there and recruiting creative design talent from somewhere. Go find people and challenge them to make a pinball machine. Look at the homebrew community. They're making a lot of exciting things. That's what Jersey Jack did. They hired Mark Seiden from the homebrew community. He made Metroid pinball. They saw it. They were impressed and they hired him. Now, look, I think American Pinball is in big trouble. And I don't believe a word David Fix says. I don't. Until I see it, then I'll give him credit. The same is true, you know, when I hear Jack Guarnieri. And I saw Jack said the same thing. He said the same thing to me. He wants everybody to be more positive. He thinks the world has become too negative. And we're slamming things too instantly. Well, first and foremost, I want to talk about how the fact that Jersey Jack Pinball is now selling a driver board that makes the flippers more powerful. It is on Pinball Life. It is $400. And apparently, it should make your flippers as good as Godfather and maybe as good as Elton John. And did you see Jersey Jack's official response to this $400 board? they said it may improve flipper performance it may m-a-y you're telling me jersey jack that your official communication around a 400 upgrade is that it may work you're not even gonna stand behind this thing this is the problem everybody with this kind of communication it's like they're already backtracking. It's like a lawyer is writing this stuff, not someone who loves pinball. And so I want someone to get this board and test it. And I mean, test it on a base level machine, put this thing into guns and roses and let us know if it works. And I don't want you to test it when you've already got like precision flippers and all those pin monk fans going throughout your game we need to test this on a base level game to see if it improves flipper performance but isn't it weird that there was no official communications from jersey jack pinball anywhere around this when they know that the majority of people every single person who owns a guns and roses and there's like 6 000 people who do you're not going to officially communicate to them that you might of solve the weak flipper feel and you're just going to let this thing go out clandestinely and we have to sort of wonder if it'll work and then your official communication is it may work and then jack wants to get up there and tell us to be more positive well jack do you understand why why we're somewhat cynical of jjp it's because of moves like this we want to buy your games We want to celebrate your creations. But if you make themes that people really don't want and you don't update your code and you don't have good communication, people are not going to be positive. And I'm sorry, ladies and gentlemen, but when you make a product that requires people to spend $12,000 to $15,000 of their hard-earned money on these machines, we absolutely should be critical if we're not seeing $12,000 to $15,000 in value, if the themes aren't things we want, and if it's coming from a company that once you buy their product, not only are you losing thousands of dollars over the last couple of years, but then you know they're not going to finish the code. And I wish Jersey Jack Pinball at the end of the year could just say, we've been listening to your feedback and we're going to make the following changes. They can't continue to operate in the shadows, just have parts go up on Pinball Life and then do all these podcast interviews in which we're the problem. Like we need to be more positive. No, you need to make a game that makes us more positive. Jack, that's where the solution lies. It's not our fault. You guys spend years making these games. And I know there's a lot of people making them. And I'm sorry, but you don't get to use the excuse that when people are negative, they should think about the livelihoods of the people working on these products. No, that's your job as the leader of Jersey Jack. That's Brett Abbas's job. You know, Jack said that everybody over there gets a bonus if the game sells well. Well, then the onus is on them to pick the right theme, make sure it's coded right, make sure the flippers feel right, make sure everything about it is what buyers want. Because if you make what buyers want, then you're not going to end up with three sales flops in a row in Toy Story, Godfather, and Elton John. You're not going to end up there if you actually do market research and you actually think about those people's livelihoods. Because when you start making games like Elton John and Godfather, then you're making games for you. They're making games for themselves. It's like Jack made titles he wanted to make. He didn't make the titles you want. He made what he wanted. Because if he made what you wanted, then these games would be sales juggernauts. And they're not. And it doesn't matter how many times they spam us on Facebook. We're not buying at these prices because everybody knows you buy the damn CE for 15. It's going to be worth 12 in just a couple months. You buy the LE for 12. It's going to be worth 9,500 in just a month or two. And everybody knows that because the last three games have done that. And this game is going to do the exact same thing. And it's not just JJP. everything is sliding back down to pre-COVID prices. I mean, seriously, look at these games now Every LE that Stern has made has slid down below and those started at It a whole new reckoning It a whole new reckoning So I just won accept this like indictment of us indictment of pinball content creators who are calling it like it is We want to be positive. We want you to give us stuff that makes us happy. That's just it. And that's why Canadas Pinball Podcast, and that's always been my thing over the years. It's like These companies, they have all this time. They have years. They have years. Jack has years and endless resources to make these games. So there's just no excuses. If you're going to sell a game for $15,000 and you have a little $2 tiny dancer cake topper on it, who the heck thinks that's good enough? You know, it's just not good enough, people. I'm sorry, but they just need to go further. And I'm also really excited about everyone's feedback on Jaws. Like, nobody's immune to this now. If you want to charge this much money and you look at Jaws, it doesn't have it. We all know it doesn't have it. You know, and if we live in a world where flow becomes the new toys, right? Shots are the new toys. Then this whole hobby is headed in the wrong direction. It absolutely is. You need to go back and play in ACDC. You need to go back and play a Lord of the Rings. Go back and play Addams Family, Twilight Zone. Go play Totem. Go play like Ghostbusters. Go play games that actually have stuff in it. Go play Jurassic Park. And then go look at Jaws and tell me that we're headed in the right direction. That Jaws, a game that's 30% more money than Godzilla, shouldn't be met with some criticisms because they couldn't figure out a more interesting way to incorporate the damn shark into the game. Everybody, 2024 is going to be, I'm telling you right now, it is going to be the most interesting year in pinball in a really long time. We are going to get more games coming out this year than ever before. The competition is going to be brutal. The prices are higher than they've ever been in the history of this hobby. And everybody needs to find a home for their games. We're going to see a lot of emotional reactions to everything that happens in this hobby. We're seeing it with this Alice in Wonderland announcement. Why are people so mad? Dutch Pinball is going to make a beautiful working Alice in Wonderland game. And it's based on the J-Pop game. But J-Pop has nothing to do with it. And they're only making a small number of them. And that's it. Why does that upset you? Why are you angry? The game is going to do just fine. I think they're going to sell every single one after you see this machine. And you might want to be calling Cointaker right now and get your name on Melissa's list and tell her Kaneda sent you. And I'm happy that Cointaker and Dutch Pinball, they're going to have two really interesting titles. Obviously, the juggernaut is back to the future. And don't believe any other commentary around these games. You're getting all the legitimate sources here from Kaneda's Pinball podcast. And those games are coming out down the road. We're going to get a new Jersey Jack pinball machine this year. I think it's going to be Matrix or Harry Potter. Then we're going to get more games from Stern. We're going to get Princess Bride from Multimorphic, which we're going to see at TPF. We're also going to get more Bally Williams remake games. There's going to be two remake games coming out this year from Pedretti Gaming and that European Pinball Corporation too. So you start to add up all these games. Let's just count them right now. Let's try to count right now all the games coming out in 2024. We've got Back to the Future. we've got Alice in Wonderland we've got Jaws we've got Looney Tunes Texas Chainsaw Massacre we've got Pulp Fiction we've got Princess Bride we've got two Bally Williams games coming out we've got another game coming from Pinball Brothers another music pin that's 10 machines right there that's 10 right there and also like that's 10 there and I didn't count like the other two or three Stern games are going to come out. We're talking at least, I mean this, there's going to be at least 15 pinball machines that come out in 2024. Think about that, 15. And the average price now is around $10,000. So 10,000 times 15, if you bought every single game, you're spending $150,000 on pinball machines. Honey, don't send the kids to school. Let's not pay off the mortgage. Let's continue to invest in now what is becoming the most appreciating asset each and every one of us is buying, and that is a pinball machine. And that never used to be the case. It's going to be brutal, people. The competition will be brutal. And that is why Kaneda's wait and see mentality is going to be the ultimate way to embrace and engage this hobby. If you wait and see, trust me, you will be able to get all of these games when you want them for the right price for less money than they are brand new. You're going to be able to get whatever you want. And you're going to be able to jump on every single game you want to play and play it and play it and play it. Play it with $100 and then make sure you want to buy one. Now, look, manufacturers don't want you to behave this way. Distributors don't even want you to behave this way. They want you to buy it before playing it. If you bought a Jaws already or a Looney Tunes already, you can't tell me you know enough to know that that game is really worth that much money. Even if you love the theme, you got to be honest with yourselves. You don't have enough information. We're not all Neil McCrae running to the airport. Oh, I got just enough time to head over to the Stern booth and play some games and claim it to be a masterpiece because I already bought the game. No, it's a whole new pinball world. And the only consistent thing in this hobby that is worth the money, the only good bang for the buck left in all of pinball is right here. And let's all welcome Cengiz to the show. He finally signed up after all these years because he made me sign up for his show too. But Jeng is welcome to the party, pal. This is it. Even though we're not going to win a Twippy, we all know this is the world's favorite pinball podcast. Everybody have a great Friday. We'll talk to you soon. I'll keep away from a run around Stay away from that girl Don't you know what you do now Whoa Whoa Whoa Whoa Whoa Keep away from that girl Don't you know what you do now
  • Keith Elwin X-Men 97 Stern game rumor has 60-70% credibility per Jason Knapp

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'I asked Jason Knapp, what do you think the odds are that rumor is true? He said 60 to 70 percent'

  • Secondary market pricing has collapsed; recent LE machines lose 20-30% value within 1-2 months of release

    medium confidence · Kaneda: 'You buy the LE for 12...it's going to be worth 9,500 in just a month or two'

  • Kaneda @ toy/flow critique — Compares modern design philosophy unfavorably to classics; nostalgia as standard

  • “The only consistent thing in this hobby that is worth the money, the only good bang for the buck left in all of pinball is right here.”

    Kaneda @ closing segment — Suggests podcast subscription/community is the only value proposition in modern pinball

  • “2024 is going to be...the most interesting year in pinball in a really long time. The competition is going to be brutal.”

    Kaneda @ forecast — Sets tone for unprecedented market competition and market stress

  • Jersey Jack Pinball
    company
    Jack Guarneriperson
    Texas Chainsaw Massacregame
    Back to the Futuregame
    Alice in Wonderlandgame
    Dutch Pinballcompany
    Multimorphiccompany
    Princess Bridegame
    Pat Lawlerperson
    Eric Minierperson
    Steve Ritchieperson
    Mark Seidenperson
    Neil McCrayperson
    Jason Knappperson
    Cointakercompany
    American Pinballcompany
    David Fixperson
    Guns and Rosesgame
    Elton Johngame
  • $

    market_signal: Recent LE releases depreciating 20-30% within 1-2 months; Stern LE machines slipping below MSRP; pre-COVID pricing return observed

    high · Kaneda: 'Buy the LE for 12...going to be worth 9,500 in a month or two...every LE that Stern has made has slid down below...all sliding back down to pre-COVID prices'

  • $

    market_signal: Games no longer selling out in one day or week; inventory stability allowing consumers extended play time before purchase decisions

    high · Kaneda: 'Jaws at least are not sold out...you can still get Looney Tunes...Nothing is selling out in one day...nothing in one week...games are going to be readily available all year'

  • ?

    rumor_hype: John Borg rumored as next Stern designer (after Keith Elwin); potential Metallica anniversary or new Journey game expected

    medium · Kaneda: 'John Borg is next. After Keith Elwin is John Borg. Is it going to be a Metallica anniversary edition? Or is it going to be an all new Journey?'

  • ?

    business_signal: American Pinball facing survival pressure in 2024; Galactic Tank Force sales ended; upcoming releases (Barry O tribute, Whitewater 2) viewed as high-risk without prior hit

    medium · Kaneda: 'American Pinball is going to be hard to survive 2024...if they don't get a hit game out...Galactic Tank Force is done. Sales are over...Barry O tribute game that's going to flop...Whitewater 2...not going to be take my money now kind of game'

  • ?

    industry_signal: Jersey Jack operating 'in the shadows'; poor official communication on critical issues (flipper upgrades); leadership dismissing community criticism as negativity rather than addressing root causes

    high · Kaneda: 'They can't continue to operate in the shadows...podcast interviews in which we're the problem...your official communication is it may work...Jack wants to get up there and tell us to be more positive'

  • $

    market_signal: Minimum 15 major releases expected in 2024 at $10K+ average, creating $150K+ total spend requirement for collectors; unprecedented competitive environment

    high · Kaneda counting: 'Back to the Future...Alice...Jaws...Looney Tunes...Pulp Fiction...Princess Bride...two Bally Williams...other two or three Stern games...at least 15 pinball machines...10,000 times 15...150,000'

  • ?

    operational_signal: Kaneda advocating for 'wait and see' strategy over pre-purchase FOMO; play extensively before committing; secondary market stabilization enables this behavior

    high · Kaneda: 'If you wait and see, you will be able to get all these games when you want them for the right price...for less money than brand new...the only consistent thing in this hobby that is worth the money, the only good bang for the buck...is right here'